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Reworking the 2009 Dynasty Rookie Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dcgator
- Start date
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
All of these RBs look to me like they are going to be locked into committees for the better part of their careers. Haven't really seen Green play yet though. Not a special type talent in that bunch of RBs. I think it was a WR and QB draft.
1. Crabtree.
2. Harvin.
3. Sanchez.
4. Nicks.
5. Moreno.
6. Wells
7. Brown
8. Stafford
9. McCoy
10. Maclin
1. Crabtree.
2. Harvin.
3. Sanchez.
4. Nicks.
5. Moreno.
6. Wells
7. Brown
8. Stafford
9. McCoy
10. Maclin
Banger
Footballguy
Crabtree #1 huh? Not disagreeing just am surprised.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Guy didn't take part in almost any offseason stuff with the 49ers. Signs three weeks ago, and with two weeks of prep time is the best WR on the 49ers. To me he totally looks the part. Great hands, and knows how to use his body in positioning already. Knock on him coming out was the potential lack of knowledge of the route tree. By all accounts he's picked up what they have given him extremely well. His speed (the other knock on him coming out) also appears to be just fine. Just very good signs for Crabtree going forward.
Banger
Footballguy
Agreed. He's looked very solid in his 2 weeks..with no training camp and very little time to work with the team. I just wonder if he's going to be more of a possession type wr. It's hard to tell after 2 games.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I don't see Crabtree outrunning a lot of NFL corners to be a deep threat, but he has Yards-After-the-Catch ability, so I think he'll get his TDs.Next year I can see him getting 65/1000/7.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
One of his best attributes coming out was run after the catch. Guy was excellent at TT in the open field.
jwb
Footballguy
1. Crabtree - Already WR1 on his team. FF WR1 stud in the making. If you were patient, you will be rewarded.
2. Nicks - NYG WR1 by year's end. Very high floor. I think he becomes a TD machine.
3. Sanchez - Seeing signs that he's going to be very, very good. Stable, top 5 qb's are huge FF assets, and I think he's going to be top 5.
4. Harvin - Solid FF contributor. Probably not FF WR1, though. Not quite as good as Nicks. Career FF WR2. Which is still really nice.
5. D Brown - Not huge stats yet, but I have really liked what I've seen.
6. Moreno - Solid FF contributor for his career.
7-10 - any combination of Wells, Stafford, Maclin, McCoy, Britt, etc.
2. Nicks - NYG WR1 by year's end. Very high floor. I think he becomes a TD machine.
3. Sanchez - Seeing signs that he's going to be very, very good. Stable, top 5 qb's are huge FF assets, and I think he's going to be top 5.
4. Harvin - Solid FF contributor. Probably not FF WR1, though. Not quite as good as Nicks. Career FF WR2. Which is still really nice.
5. D Brown - Not huge stats yet, but I have really liked what I've seen.
6. Moreno - Solid FF contributor for his career.
7-10 - any combination of Wells, Stafford, Maclin, McCoy, Britt, etc.
I would swap around Sanchez and Stafford's positions, and I still have Crabtree behind Nicks. Stafford reminds me of a young Brett Favre, while Sanchez reminds me of young Pennington. (Anyone else see his lame attempt at a hail mary a couple weeks ago that only went 45 yards or so when he was able to step into it?)
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lyon812
Footballguy
I wouldn't say either of the others are "far more talented". From what I've seen, Wells has greater power than McCoy, greater speed and explosion than Brown. He's more agile than Brown, and lacks the propensity to over-wiggle like McCoy. He has better vision than both, shakes off tackles and runs effectively both inside and outside. The only negative is his receiving/blocking ability, but there are plenty of backs who are productive without being a major part of the passing game--and that will improve over time.
spider321
Footballguy
I disagree with most of your post, but I appreciate your explanation.
footballguy#1
Footballguy
I agree.
loose circuits
Footballguy
Knox & Wallace could be just as good as any of the rookies when it's all said & done IMO...both have shown ridiculous big play ability. Not to the level of Crabs or Harvin, but they definitely deserve to be mentioned
why would you say that? Wells clearly better then THT. THT couokd be the 3rd back for forseeable future. T Jones is 31. C Buck is pushing 30 as well. Westy is 30. I would say all 4 of these rookie rbs will be in very good situations in a year or two.Not getting as to why everyone has KM clearly #1 of the backs. So far he has looked the least explosive of the 4 above.
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jurb26
Footballguy
Way too many people are sleeping on Wells. I guess it's that he hasn't offered the instant gratification that a lot of people are looking for. Wells is going to be a Stud in the NFL though. You can just see it when he's on the field and touches the ball. He is having trouble with fumbles and picking up blitz and right now that is keeping him off the field. Rightfully so. Many rookies struggle with these things and pretty much all of them get over it. Wells played in an especially simple offense at OSU so it makes sense that he would struggle with it more than most. His future is very bright though.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I think you're right, but he hasn't shown that you are yet.IMO, Wells high end is a borderline RB1, good RB2.
EBF
Footballguy
My opinions haven't changed a whole lot. Most of the guys I expected to look good have looked good. Of the players I own I would be most reluctant to part with Harvin and Nicks. I think they're going to be solid starters for a while.
Ranking for PPR dynasty I would say:
1a. Percy Harvin - Like a young Laveranues Coles with a little more versatility, strength, and explosion. Safe pick with upside.
1b. Michael Crabtree - Looks good so far. Solid possession WR. Kind of a Cris Carter type.
1c. Hakeem Nicks - Makes plays at every opportunity. Should become a consistent 1000 yard guy.
4. Knowshon Moreno - Decent player, but doesn't wow me in any way. Somewhat undersized and doesn't break long runs.
5. LeSean McCoy - A little inconsistent. Gets the edge here because his upside is huge if he replaces Westbrook.
6. Beanie Wells - Good size and straight-line speed. Nothing incredible, but could be top 15 as early as next season.
7. Shonn Greene - I think he'll be a 1000+ yard rusher when Thomas Jones is done. Solid player. Not a world beater.
8. Donald Brown - Looks like a solid contributor. Not sure if he'll ever be "the guy" for this team. A lesser Felix Jones?
9. Mark Sanchez - Playing pretty well for a guy with no experience. I like where this team is headed.
10. Matt Stafford - Playing fine for a rookie QB. No reason to downgrade him.
11. Jeremy Maclin - Still think he's a bit of a one trick pony. Like him more than the rest though.
12. Kenny Britt - Never been a big fan. Showing some flashes. Opportunity and pedigree are encouraging.
OTHERS
Austin Collie - Mediocre athlete in a friendly system. Low ceiling, but should catch some balls and be a fan favorite.
Mohammed Massaquoi - As I suspected, outplaying overhyped teammate Robiskie. Good athlete. Decent prospect.
Johnny Knox - Playing well for a late round rookie from a small school. Seems to have some long term starter potential.
Brandon Tate - Remains my favorite sleeper of this bunch. Believe he could eventually become a Driver/Mason type.
Mike Wallace - Carving out a nice role for himself. Can he become more than a deep threat?
A clear top 3 followed by a bunch of question marks.
Opportunity will be key for the RB crew. They're all capable of producing if they get lots of touches, but I'm not sure there's a single Pro Bowl talent among them. Wells and McCoy probably have the most upside. I'm still high on Greene, although he doesn't have elite potential. Moreno has been sorta "meh" so far. He's not very big and he doesn't have big play ability. That's a bad combination. On the other hand, he's the only one of these guys who's consistently startable right now.
None of the second tier backs have shown me much. Andre Brown is hurt (shocker!), Gartrell Johnson lacks the elite athletic gifts of a top pro, and Glen Coffee was a preseason mirage who capitalized on great blocking. He was exposed as utterly mediocre when he got his starting opportunity in Frank Gore's absence. Maybe someone like Bernard Scott will make some noise down the road, but I'm not too excited about the sleeper RBs.
There will be some shuffling in this list over the next few years. I would expect 1-2 of the RBs to distance themselves from the pack. McCoy, Wells, and Greene all have that potential if their opportunity expands.
Ranking for PPR dynasty I would say:
1a. Percy Harvin - Like a young Laveranues Coles with a little more versatility, strength, and explosion. Safe pick with upside.
1b. Michael Crabtree - Looks good so far. Solid possession WR. Kind of a Cris Carter type.
1c. Hakeem Nicks - Makes plays at every opportunity. Should become a consistent 1000 yard guy.
4. Knowshon Moreno - Decent player, but doesn't wow me in any way. Somewhat undersized and doesn't break long runs.
5. LeSean McCoy - A little inconsistent. Gets the edge here because his upside is huge if he replaces Westbrook.
6. Beanie Wells - Good size and straight-line speed. Nothing incredible, but could be top 15 as early as next season.
7. Shonn Greene - I think he'll be a 1000+ yard rusher when Thomas Jones is done. Solid player. Not a world beater.
8. Donald Brown - Looks like a solid contributor. Not sure if he'll ever be "the guy" for this team. A lesser Felix Jones?
9. Mark Sanchez - Playing pretty well for a guy with no experience. I like where this team is headed.
10. Matt Stafford - Playing fine for a rookie QB. No reason to downgrade him.
11. Jeremy Maclin - Still think he's a bit of a one trick pony. Like him more than the rest though.
12. Kenny Britt - Never been a big fan. Showing some flashes. Opportunity and pedigree are encouraging.
OTHERS
Austin Collie - Mediocre athlete in a friendly system. Low ceiling, but should catch some balls and be a fan favorite.
Mohammed Massaquoi - As I suspected, outplaying overhyped teammate Robiskie. Good athlete. Decent prospect.
Johnny Knox - Playing well for a late round rookie from a small school. Seems to have some long term starter potential.
Brandon Tate - Remains my favorite sleeper of this bunch. Believe he could eventually become a Driver/Mason type.
Mike Wallace - Carving out a nice role for himself. Can he become more than a deep threat?
A clear top 3 followed by a bunch of question marks.
Opportunity will be key for the RB crew. They're all capable of producing if they get lots of touches, but I'm not sure there's a single Pro Bowl talent among them. Wells and McCoy probably have the most upside. I'm still high on Greene, although he doesn't have elite potential. Moreno has been sorta "meh" so far. He's not very big and he doesn't have big play ability. That's a bad combination. On the other hand, he's the only one of these guys who's consistently startable right now.
None of the second tier backs have shown me much. Andre Brown is hurt (shocker!), Gartrell Johnson lacks the elite athletic gifts of a top pro, and Glen Coffee was a preseason mirage who capitalized on great blocking. He was exposed as utterly mediocre when he got his starting opportunity in Frank Gore's absence. Maybe someone like Bernard Scott will make some noise down the road, but I'm not too excited about the sleeper RBs.
There will be some shuffling in this list over the next few years. I would expect 1-2 of the RBs to distance themselves from the pack. McCoy, Wells, and Greene all have that potential if their opportunity expands.
Because 8 games is a ludicrously small sample. At this point in time, my pre-draft rankings are still accounting for far and away the bulk of my current ratings. The goal isn't to draft the guys who looked the best in the first 8 games, it's to draft the guys who will have the best careers, and I haven't seen anything in 8 games to dramatically alter my opinions on any player one way or another.As a cautionary tale to reactionary rankings, take Rashard Mendenhall. Before the season last year, he was a consensus top-3 dynasty pick. 8 games into the season, he was a bum, a bust. A year later, he's the guy who was a consensus top-3 selection again. Likewise, Steve Slaton went from late first rounder to unstoppable force-slash-top 10 dynasty RB, and now he's back to being valued like a late first rounder again. Sometimes it turns out you were wrong on a player, but forgetting entirely about your original rankings once the season kicks off is generally a recipe for disaster.
Both Knox and Wallace have shown an ability to consistently make big plays, but neither Knox nor Wallace have shown an ability to consistently make small plays. While big play ability is nice and all, it's not enough to make someone a quality fantasy starter all on its own- just ask Ashley Lelie.
Four reasons. Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Ben Hamilton, and Chris Kuper.Buzzcut said:
For me, I was down on Wells before the season (had the #2 overall and traded a small fortune to get out of it- #2, #20, #30, and Owen Daniels for the #1). He certainly hasn't shown me anything that'd make me change my mind yet.jurb26 said:
