What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RGIII Production (Value) with DJAX (1 Viewer)

Cheesesteak Vegas

Cheesesteak Vegas

Footballguy
It looks like DJAX will be a member of the Washington Professional Football team. My question is how would this addition affect your view of RGIII this upcoming season. It would seem to me that DJAX would move RGIII up my fantasy ranking considerably due to DJAX's ability to break a TD at any moment, as well as having a fantastic complimentary receiver on the other side of the field in Garcon. RGIII staying healthy would be the key of course, so maybe I'm overreacting to the potential fantasy goodness.

Sorry if there is a thread on this somewhere that I didn't notice.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The deal isn't final yet, but it looks good. If it goes thru this is a huge win for RG3 IMO. Wash needed a deep threat pretty badly and they got arguably the best in the game. Jackson opens up this offense so much it's silly. I'd bump his projections by 800 yds and 5 TDs with this signing.

 
Cheesesteak Vegas said:
RGIII staying healthy would be the key of course, so maybe I'm overreacting to the potential fantasy goodness.
Click to expand...
I think Griffin getting and staying healthy, and his offseason and preseason work with the coaches and receivers, will have a bigger effect on how he performs than will Jackson (if signed).

 
Concept Coop said:
This hurts Garcon. Maybe Reed, too. Big win for RG3.
Click to expand...
I don't fully agree. If the Redskins sign Jackson it'll be the first time they've had a legitimate deep threat since Griffin has been there. Throwing deep to Aldrick Robinson was a crapshoot, and other teams figured out that Garcon and Reed were the guys they had to stop, and neither of them was a deep threat. Basically the amount of the field opposing defenses had to cover was reduced. If Jackson is signed it opens up the midrange passes more, which is where Garcon and Reed operate. I think Garcon will see a reduction in targets and catches, but a noticeable bump in YPC (and possibly TD's) since he won't be so tightly covered. Reed will get his; LB's just cannot cover him.

 
fatness said:
Concept Coop said:
This hurts Garcon. Maybe Reed, too. Big win for RG3.
Click to expand...
I don't fully agree. If the Redskins sign Jackson it'll be the first time they've had a legitimate deep threat since Griffin has been there. Throwing deep to Aldrick Robinson was a crapshoot, and other teams figured out that Garcon and Reed were the guys they had to stop, and neither of them was a deep threat. Basically the amount of the field opposing defenses had to cover was reduced. If Jackson is signed it opens up the midrange passes more, which is where Garcon and Reed operate. I think Garcon will see a reduction in targets and catches, but a noticeable bump in YPC (and possibly TD's) since he won't be so tightly covered. Reed will get his; LB's just cannot cover him.
Click to expand...
Garcon's target rate simply won't hold. In fact, it didn't even hold with a healthy Reed; it dipped when Reed got hot, and spiked when he went down. Jackson is a mouth to feed, and those targets are coming from somewhere. It was highly unlikely that Garcon got those targets without Jackson, and I think we can put it in stone now.

It'll help everyone on the offense--just not in a way that also helps their fantasy numbers. Just my thoughts, of course.

 
Concept Coop said:
fatness said:
Concept Coop said:
This hurts Garcon. Maybe Reed, too. Big win for RG3.
Click to expand...
I don't fully agree. If the Redskins sign Jackson it'll be the first time they've had a legitimate deep threat since Griffin has been there. Throwing deep to Aldrick Robinson was a crapshoot, and other teams figured out that Garcon and Reed were the guys they had to stop, and neither of them was a deep threat. Basically the amount of the field opposing defenses had to cover was reduced. If Jackson is signed it opens up the midrange passes more, which is where Garcon and Reed operate. I think Garcon will see a reduction in targets and catches, but a noticeable bump in YPC (and possibly TD's) since he won't be so tightly covered. Reed will get his; LB's just cannot cover him.
Click to expand...
Garcon's target rate simply won't hold. In fact, it didn't even hold with a healthy Reed; it dipped when Reed got hot, and spiked when he went down. Jackson is a mouth to feed, and those targets are coming from somewhere. It was highly unlikely that Garcon got those targets without Jackson, and I think we can put it in stone now.

It'll help everyone on the offense--just not in a way that also helps their fantasy numbers. Just my thoughts, of course.
Click to expand...
I agree. The offense become better and more efficient but the other pass catcher, by and large, take a hit. RG3 wins, big.
 
I think Moss is likely cut, so his 74 targets and Robinson's 46 targets are going to be absorbed by mostly DeSean, and to a lesser extent Roberts or Reed. So we may not see a humongous drop in targets for Garcon and Reed depending on how often they Skins throw this year. I expect a reduction for sure, but don't think its going to be like 40-50% less by any means.

 
RG3 probably throws for 300 more yards total and finishes the year with 1200 or so yards before getting injured again

 
Reed averaged about 7 targets per game during the season. Garcon averaged 11 targets per game while Reed was playing. He averaged 12 per game during the time Reed was out. And that 1 more average target was mostly due to his huge 18 target game vs the Cowboys. The targets were still there regardless of whether Reed played or not.

 
It can't hurt, how bout that.

As an owner, I was actually pretty pleased with the Andre Roberts signing, as he seemed like a viable #2 to help open thing up. As a #3 to go along with Jackson and Reed, that's a fair amount of talent to work with.

Gruden likes the forward pass, so that's to the good.

Now I am less sure about the line. Hopefully Lauvao can help, but that could still be an issue.

All in all, it would have been hard to realistically expect more out of the off-season so far.

Another lineman in the draft, and maybe RG3 is back to the top of the charts for fantasy purposes. I am cautiously optimistic.

 
This is going to help RG3 a lot. I think Garcon's number of receptions only drops by 5%. DJax will open the field up. It is not like Garcon is a bum that RG3 is going to forget to target.

 
Soulfly3 said:
RG3 must be sporting a huge #### eating grin right now.
Click to expand...
As does Gruden.

Actually Griffin looks like a great value in next year's redrafts and auctions at this rate. They must be planning to have him pass more now, but if you look at it maybe they're looking at Jax with Vick, get Griffin out the pocket and let it fly, like at Baylor.

How many sacks does he take and can he stay healthy.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Soulfly3 said:
RG3 must be sporting a huge #### eating grin right now.
Click to expand...
As does Gruden.

Actually Griffin looks like a great value in next year's redrafts and auctions at this rate. They must be planning to have him pass more now, but if you look at it maybe they're looking at Jax with Vick, get Griffin out the pocket and let it fly, like at Baylor.

How many sacks does he take and can he stay healthy.
Click to expand...
I think you have repressed memories/nightmares of Vick in ATL...

This improves things dramatically for WAS and for RGIII. The receivers is no loinger limited to one guy and a few place holders, between Jackson, Garcon, Roberts and Reed you have a bit to cover, Add Alfred Morris and RGII's mobility and you at least threaten to be vick like and this binds a defender as a qb spy which leaves holes for everybody.

The OL has got to be priority #1 now. How's the secondary and the rest of the defense?

 
Griffin is definitely a great value for drafts this year considering how many people I see that say he "regressed" last year.

 
I have RGIII rostered - still trying to see if I like the signing. I am still bothered that a bright guy like Kelly just kicked Jackson to the curb after a great season.

 
2013 Redskin players with more than 10 targets-rec/tgt/yds/ypc/TD

Pierre Garcon 113 184 1346 11.9 5

Jordan Reed 45 59 499 11.1 3

Santana Moss 42 80 452 10.8 2

Leonard Hankerson 30 48 375 12.5 3

Aldrick Robinson 18 46 365 20.3 2

Logan Paulsen 28 51 267 9.5 3

Roy Helu 31 42 251 8.1

Josh Morgan 20 33 214 10.7

Alfred Morris 9 12 78 8.7

Fred Davis 7 17 70 10.0 1

Nick Williams 3 11 15 5.0

Garcon led the league in targets. Jackson or not I do not think that was going to happen again.

Reed did not have that many targets and I do not see Jackson as a threat to those. If Reed is healthy all season I would expect those targets to go up some. Fred Davis is a free agent and suspended right now so Reed has little competition there. Logan Paulsen is the other TE. They combined for 127 targets.

Jackson looks to get the Moss/Alrdrick targets (likely with some of Garcon's as well) with Roberts and Hankerson getting the rest of the scraps?

There are 200 targets to WR besides Garcon to be split between Jackson, Roberts, Moss, Hankerson. Another 30-50 targets in play because Garcon was not likely to get so many again. 120-150 for Garcon seems like a more reasonable expectation. Another 120-150 for Jackson would still leave 80-110 targets for Roberts/Moss/Hankerson/Robinson/Williams.

Moss was re-signed to a one year deal. Roberts seems like a replacement for him in the slot. Josh Morgan is a free agent.

I guess this hurts Aldrick, Williams, and Roberts the most in terms of opportunity.

It is possible passing attempts go up. I am not sure how this affects the Redskins cap wise? It does seem to me the pressure is on to do everything they can to support Griffin at the expense of the defense. Which may not be good for the overall team, but should be good for Griffin in fantasy. I already considered Griffen a top 5 QB in dynasty but this makes me feel more comfortable about valuing him that high.


 
I already loved RGIII as a bounceback this year, so this probably now will price him out of my range. He'll be drafted too high for me by August.

 
Cheesesteak Vegas said:
I'm known to get caught up in hype waves, but in terms of fantasy QB rankings, I'm thinking RGIII is 4th behind the usaual suspects.
Click to expand...
It's hard to envision him not having a great year if he can get back to where he was as a rookie. DJax/Roberts is a massive upgrade over Moss/Hankerson.

 
cstu said:
Cheesesteak Vegas said:
I'm known to get caught up in hype waves, but in terms of fantasy QB rankings, I'm thinking RGIII is 4th behind the usaual suspects.
Click to expand...
It's hard to envision him not having a great year if he can get back to where he was as a rookie. DJax/Roberts is a massive upgrade over Moss/Hankerson.
Click to expand...
That's the big IF. I sure hope he does, and he'll certainly work hard enough. But we won't know until it plays out on the field.

 
Fantastic addition for RG3. DJax is exactly the sort of WR RG3 needed to make a jump in production.

He's a deep threat; RG3 has a nice deep ball. He'll open up the middle of the field, where Garcon/Reed are most effective; now those midrange passes will be more open. Last year, defenses learned to limit RG3 as a passer by focusing coverage on the midrange stuff (and it was so effective, I worried it would stunt RG3s development as a passer). Also, DJax has experience working with a mobile QB (Vick). He was good at adjusting his routes to keep passing lanes open during Vick scrambles. Hopefully, he'll get the same rapport with RG3. That should do wonders for RG3s long-term development. Even his kick returning should help RG3 get in the endzone more.


And, whatever money DJax is getting won't go to the defense! So RG3 will probably still need to be throwing late in game.

 
Concept Coop said:
Cheesesteak Vegas said:
I'm known to get caught up in hype waves, but in terms of fantasy QB rankings, I'm thinking RGIII is 4th behind the usaual suspects.
Click to expand...
I think he has a valid argument for #4. I wouldn't fault anyone for liking Brees or Foles more--but that's it.
Click to expand...
The problem is with RG3 is you have to give him the Vick treatment of the old days. You get an awesome ppg guy but have to worry about Plan b more than my liking. I will pass and let someone else deal with the headache.

 
Maybe we have a case here of Tannehill to Wallace combo. Everyone was getting excited that we might get big numbers by both parties but both ended up being meh. We have no idea if Jackson and RG3 will be great together. We know that Jackson has always been an awesome deep threat, but rarely has he been able to produce consistently game in and game out. That was not the case with Chip Kelly as Jackson had a career year topping his career best by 20 receptions and 200 yards.

Gruden is a pretty good coordinator and has milked some good numbers out of a very average player in Dalton so there is hope. If Griffin is back to playing some competent football this has the makings of being something pretty good, but this is far from a lock that many are going to predict.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
The problem is with RG3 is you have to give him the Vick treatment of the old days. You get an awesome ppg guy but have to worry about Plan b more than my liking. I will pass and let someone else deal with the headache.
Click to expand...
Certainly. But I don't think it's as damning as it is with other positions, with replacement production so available. The "Vick treatement" keeps him out of the top 3--and will until and unless he outscores them or improves his track record--but I won't let that move him behind safer options with less upside, such as Keap, Wilson, Stafford, and Ryan.

 
You have to think Griffin will throw for more yardage/attempt with Jackson, a good deep threat. Jay Gruden likes to forward pass. 1+1=2; Griffin will amass decent passing yards - 4k wouldn't surprise me.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Griffin throws deep pretty well. I remember reading scouting reports from the 2011 draft touting his deep ball. Maybe Jackson + RGIII is match made in narcissistic heaven.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Maybe we have a case here of Tannehill to Wallace combo.
Click to expand...
I'd be pretty surprised if this ended up being the case. The Dolphins tried to make Wallace something he's not. I think Jackson will fit in nicely in Washington's offense. He could disappoint, but not for the reasons that Wallace did, IMO.

 
Concept Coop said:
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Maybe we have a case here of Tannehill to Wallace combo.
Click to expand...
I'd be pretty surprised if this ended up being the case. The Dolphins tried to make Wallace something he's not. I think Jackson will fit in nicely in Washington's offense. He could disappoint, but not for the reasons that Wallace did, IMO.
Click to expand...
I am not sure if Wallace was made to be something he is not. He was open a lot deep but Tannehill sucks at throwing the deep ball. Griffin in his rookie year was on point with all throws (deep included). Last year Griffin sucked and lacked confidence. If he cant regain form, both he and Jackson will be over drafted. I get the upside is there which could end up being a rewarding pick. But I will go with something a little safer due to how high he is going to be drafted.

 
#4 overall qb seems a bit much right now. I am not saying he cannot hit that, but at this point I am cetinaly not ready to predict anything quite that high

 
B-Deep said:
#4 overall qb seems a bit much right now. I am not saying he cannot hit that, but at this point I am cetinaly not ready to predict anything quite that high
Click to expand...
It depends. If he gets 4000 passing yards (he was on pace to get almost that much last year, when he was universally regarded as playing poorly), plus 700 rushing yards (500 in only 13 games last year), plus 25+ passing TDs, and 3-4 rushing TDs, you are looking at around 350 FF points (standard scoring). That would have made him QB4 last year, QB8 in 2012, QB7 in 2011, QB4 in 2010, and QB3 in 2009.

I'm not saying he will/won't hit it, but with a healthy knee, better receiving threats, a HC who made Andy Dalton into a top-3 QB, I don't know if it really is "a bit much."

 
Bayhawks said:
B-Deep said:
#4 overall qb seems a bit much right now. I am not saying he cannot hit that, but at this point I am cetinaly not ready to predict anything quite that high
Click to expand...
It depends. If he gets 4000 passing yards (he was on pace to get almost that much last year, when he was universally regarded as playing poorly), plus 700 rushing yards (500 in only 13 games last year), plus 25+ passing TDs, and 3-4 rushing TDs, you are looking at around 350 FF points (standard scoring). That would have made him QB4 last year, QB8 in 2012, QB7 in 2011, QB4 in 2010, and QB3 in 2009.

I'm not saying he will/won't hit it, but with a healthy knee, better receiving threats, a HC who made Andy Dalton into a top-3 QB, I don't know if it really is "a bit much."
Click to expand...
we haven't seen his knee

we have only seen his new weapon be elite in one system for one year

putting parts together does not always equal greatness

we have not seen anyone in washington in this system

we don't know how he'll rebound from last season

and his head coach is a brand new head coach

given all that to rank him #4 before the draft before pre-season, before training camps, before OTAs, before anyone has seen him throw a single pass in the new system qualifies as a bit much to me

it is certainly attainable, but it is a bit of a hype driven reaction at this point (at least to me)

 
B-Deep said:
given all that to rank him #4 before the draft before pre-season, before training camps, before OTAs, before anyone has seen him throw a single pass in the new system qualifies as a bit much to me
Click to expand...
Don't the other options in the 4+ range have questions too? Peyton and Brees are older. Kaepernick took a step back. Wilson doesn't get to throw the ball enough. Stafford's value is tied to volume. Ryan only has one top 5 season, lost Gonzo, and ATL would love to run more. Foles has less than one season to judge, just lost his top weapon, and is tied to a new system that teams will be trying solve.

Anything higher than 4 is a statement, in my opinion. After that--we're picking favorites based on window, risk tolerance, etc.


 
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop said:
B-Deep said:
given all that to rank him #4 before the draft before pre-season, before training camps, before OTAs, before anyone has seen him throw a single pass in the new system qualifies as a bit much to me
Click to expand...
Don't the other options in the 4+ range have questions too? Peyton and Brees are older. Kaepernick took a step back. Wilson doesn't get to throw the ball enough. Stafford's value is tied to volume. Ryan only has one top 5 season, lost Gonzo, and ATL would love to run more. Foles has less than one season to judge, just lost his top weapon, and is tied to a new system that teams will be trying solve.

Anything higher than 4 is a statement, in my opinion. After that--we're picking favorites based on window, risk tolerance, etc.
Click to expand...
of course there are questions with most of them, i just think there are more on RG3

again, this prediction is with a whole new cast, a whole new offense, a whole new coach, and comming off a sub par season (granted due to injury, but that is a question of his own) and before he has so much as thrown a pass, predicting his best season so far...and predicting he'll out score people like drew brees

certainly it is possible, but when a new weapon arrives there is hype, i think this is clearly a case of the hype playing in

hell even RG3 recognizes it:

DeSean Jackson's arrival in Washington offers the Redskins the potential to become one of football's top offenses in 2014.

"It's an exciting time to be a Redskins fan and a part of this team because of the firepower that we have," Griffin said, according to Mike Jones of The Washington Post. "Everyone needs to understand that we haven't won anything yet, and these next few months will be about building those bonds and chemistry so that we can."Potential is the key word there. Nothing has been accomplished yet, and Robert Griffin III wants Redskins fans to keep that in mind in the afterglow of DJax's arrival.

Griffin knows all about the dangers of unrealistic expectations. The quarterback was chewed up and spit out by the hype machine in 2013 -- a wheezing contraption Griffin helped fuel with jumping jacks, Operation Patience et al.

 
B-Deep said:
Bayhawks said:
B-Deep said:
#4 overall qb seems a bit much right now. I am not saying he cannot hit that, but at this point I am cetinaly not ready to predict anything quite that high
Click to expand...
It depends. If he gets 4000 passing yards (he was on pace to get almost that much last year, when he was universally regarded as playing poorly), plus 700 rushing yards (500 in only 13 games last year), plus 25+ passing TDs, and 3-4 rushing TDs, you are looking at around 350 FF points (standard scoring). That would have made him QB4 last year, QB8 in 2012, QB7 in 2011, QB4 in 2010, and QB3 in 2009.

I'm not saying he will/won't hit it, but with a healthy knee, better receiving threats, a HC who made Andy Dalton into a top-3 QB, I don't know if it really is "a bit much."
Click to expand...
we haven't seen his knee

we have only seen his new weapon be elite in one system for one year

putting parts together does not always equal greatness

we have not seen anyone in washington in this system

we don't know how he'll rebound from last season

and his head coach is a brand new head coach

given all that to rank him #4 before the draft before pre-season, before training camps, before OTAs, before anyone has seen him throw a single pass in the new system qualifies as a bit much to me

it is certainly attainable, but it is a bit of a hype driven reaction at this point (at least to me)
Click to expand...
Who would you put ahead of him? All players have questions that we have to try to determine the answers to when projecting.

Manning-new weapons, loss of old weapons, age, neck

Brees-loss of Sproles, loss of Moore, Graham playing/playing unhappily b/c of being tagged,

Cam-offseason surgery will cost him off-season practice time, looks to have an entirely new (not impressive) recieving corps

Luck-will Wayne be back? Will Indy continue to try to be a run-heavy team?

Foles-will he continue to put up the great numbers he did when he started in Philly, or will he come back down to earth; will the NFL figure out Kelly's offense? Will the loss of DJax hurt his numbers?

Dalton-was last year a fluke? Will the loss of Gruden hurt him?

Rivers-Will he repeat last years numbers, or those of 2012?

What 4 guys are you going to put ahead of him that don't have questions?

I have Manning and Brees clearly ahead of him, then there is a big tier after that. RGIII is in that tier, and the questions about him aren't any more concerning that the questions around some of those QBs.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Hot Sauce Guy
  • Locked
Value Swings if Tush Push is Banned
2
Replies
57
Views
1K
Joe Bryant
Joe Bryant
eighsse2
Expected Finish versus Projected Finish
Replies
0
Views
160
eighsse2
eighsse2
JohnnyU
Are these Risky players a sell?
2
Replies
74
Views
2K
Hot Sauce Guy
Hot Sauce Guy

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Back
Top