Roethlisberger Undervalued in '07 (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes

3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg

4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB

5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

 

[Steeler]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

When did Tomlin say this?

 

[Godsbrother]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

When did Tomlin say this?

Let him go, he's on a roll.

 

[Pimpin Ain't Easy]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

6. I just drafted him in WSL 1

 

[Couch Potato]

6. Traders2001 hates him, so he must be good.

 

[Slinger]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

 

[LHUCKS]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

 

[Ben Stiller]

I'd also bet on improvements to the O-line, despite Grimm leaving.

 

[Weiner Dog]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts. Also, with PIT being ranked #9 in passing yardage, Ben does have a low ceiling over his head.

 

[LHUCKS]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts.

You're looking at the wrong dataset.

 

[Slinger]

I think #6 should be the fact that he'll have the offseason to recover from his wild injury issues.

 

[gildawg]

Ken Anderson just got hired as QB Coach. I'll downgrade Big Ben now, can't remember the last time Kenny had a good QB.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

agreed, but I would want him as 1B in a QBBC

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

6. I just drafted him in WSL 1

waiting for the Chris Cooley is undervalued thread.To be fair though, he was qb12 taken off the board in the league. which seems about right to me

 

[David Yudkin]

Big Ben was in the #14-15 range in PPG in most of my leagues last year and 18-22nd his other two seasons. Sure, he might be slightly undervalued, but I doubt he will be a fantasy difference maker and I doubt he will be a straight starting QB formost fantasy leagues. He might be ok in a QBBC, but I can't see inserting him into a lineup and leaving him there all season.

If you end up getting the #14 QB at the say QB19 draft spot, is that really going to make much difference to you team?

 

[Jous]

Ken Anderson just got hired as QB Coach. I'll downgrade Big Ben now, can't remember the last time Kenny had a good QB.

But really, what QB's did Anderson have to work with? He was basically given bust after bust after bust.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Ken Anderson just got hired as QB Coach. I'll downgrade Big Ben now, can't remember the last time Kenny had a good QB.

But really, what QB's did Anderson have to work with? He was basically given bust after bust after bust.

 

[LHUCKS]

Big Ben was in the #14-15 range in PPG in most of my leagues last year and 18-22nd his other two seasons. Sure, he might be slightly undervalued, but I doubt he will be a fantasy difference maker and I doubt he will be a straight starting QB formost fantasy leagues. He might be ok in a QBBC, but I can't see inserting him into a lineup and leaving him there all season.If you end up getting the #14 QB at the say QB19 draft spot, is that really going to make much difference to you team?

I think the key factor here is the potential for a dramatic change in offensive philosophy, as well as the continued growth of Ben.Looking at his year three numbers and setting that as his ceiling is a bit shortsighted IMHO considering the following: last year he overcame major surgery, had a major accident and continually dealt with WR inconsistency.

 

[David Yudkin]

Big Ben was in the #14-15 range in PPG in most of my leagues last year and 18-22nd his other two seasons. Sure, he might be slightly undervalued, but I doubt he will be a fantasy difference maker and I doubt he will be a straight starting QB formost fantasy leagues. He might be ok in a QBBC, but I can't see inserting him into a lineup and leaving him there all season.If you end up getting the #14 QB at the say QB19 draft spot, is that really going to make much difference to you team?

I think the key factor here is the potential for a dramatic change in offensive philosophy, as well as the continued growth of Ben.Looking at his year three numbers and setting that as his ceiling is a bit shortsighted IMHO considering the following: last year he overcame major surgery, had a major accident and continually dealt with WR inconsistency.

I'm agreeing with you overall, just not to the extent that you are pimping him. New coaches, new system, new plays, new learning curve. I'm guessing slow out of the gate, a mixed bag in the middle, and maybe some decent numbers by the end of the year. He certainly won't be an expensive investment on draft day so that in itself makes him seem like an intriguing choice. Maybe he produces as a marginal QB1, but I'm thinking that he won't vault up in to the Top half of QB1s. So basically he may be servicable but not a major difference maker. IMO the real value for Ben will be in 2008 once everybody gets on the same page.

 

[-OZ-]

agreed, but I would want him as 1B in a QBBC

Agreed. QB8-14 is about where he should be ranked for this year. Coming off the injury, but still a popular name. I doubt he'd be undervalued in many leagues.FWIW, he is my 1b in one league. (Leinart the 1a - interesting that I keep Whisenhunt/Grimm)

 

[toxicbees]

I think the emergence of S.Holmes could put Roeth into the upper tier. If the new Steelers attack is more balanced between run and pass, then that will only improve his numbers. The guy has steadily improved each year. It's foolish to think he's hit his ceiling already.

 

[Weiner Dog]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts.

You're looking at the wrong dataset.

Nope.Rushing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing yards (#9):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_2=4

 

[Tau837]

I think the emergence of S.Holmes could put Roeth into the upper tier. If the new Steelers attack is more balanced between run and pass, then that will only improve his numbers. The guy has steadily improved each year. It's foolish to think he's hit his ceiling already.

They were 15th in passing attempts, with 523, and 15th in rushing attempts, with 469. That's pretty balanced IMO. More balance would mean running more and passing less, since they threw 54 more times than they ran.I think you really mean that it will improve his numbers if they become less balanced, throwing even more often.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Big Ben was in the #14-15 range in PPG in most of my leagues last year and 18-22nd his other two seasons.

I'd love to know what scoring system you use.This past year, Ben was the 15th ranked QB in one of my dynasty leagues and 9th in the other in total points despite missing 1 game and not looking anything like himself for the first few games he played. In every 2005 league I was in, Ben was a top 20 QB (normally around 17th) despite missing 4 games. That doesn't amount to a QB with an 18-22nd ranked PPG. In PPG, he was right around 10th, and that was on an offense that ran the ball about 60% of the time.People REALLY underestimate how good he's going to be if/when he passes a few more times every week.

 

[Biabreakable]

So Ben is no longer just a game manager similar to Troy Aikman?

 

[LHUCKS]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts.

You're looking at the wrong dataset.

Nope.Rushing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing yards (#9):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_2=4

Do you find anything flawed with your argument?

 

[LHUCKS]

So Ben is no longer just a game manager similar to Troy Aikman?

Nope. I expect him to evolve into a passing weapon in the coming years and a fantasy force. I was not so optimistic with Cowher at the helm, especially when Ben was still learning the game. I think he's about ready to lay the smackdown on opposing secondaries.

 

[Weiner Dog]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts. <_<

You're looking at the wrong dataset.

Nope.Rushing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing yards (#9):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_2=4

Do you find anything flawed with your argument?

Just illustrating a flaw in yours...

5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime.

 

[majstro]

Homer Alert!

Now that I have that out of the way, let me agree with LHUCKS if for no other reason than...hello NFC West!

Here are the Steeler's 2007 opponents:

Home: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Buffalo, Miami, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Seattle

Away: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, New England, N.Y. Jets, Denver, Arizona, St. Louis

To break it down (2006 passing defense ranking by yards allowed):

Teams that are the same from 2006:

Baltimore (6), Cincinnati (31), Cleveland (15), Miami (5), Jacksonville (10), Denver (21)

Teams dropped:

San Diego (13), Atlanta (29), New Orleans (3), Kansas City (18), Oakland (1), Carolina (4), Tampa Bay (19)

Total of 87.

Teams added:

Buffalo (7), San Francisco (26), Seattle (16), New England (12), NY Jets (14), Arizona (30), St. Louis (8)

Total of 113.

I think there will be some opportunities for Ben to put up nice numbers next year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Big Ben was in the #14-15 range in PPG in most of my leagues last year and 18-22nd his other two seasons.

I'd love to know what scoring system you use.This past year, Ben was the 15th ranked QB in one of my dynasty leagues and 9th in the other in total points despite missing 1 game and not looking anything like himself for the first few games he played. In every 2005 league I was in, Ben was a top 20 QB (normally around 17th) despite missing 4 games. That doesn't amount to a QB with an 18-22nd ranked PPG. In PPG, he was right around 10th, and that was on an offense that ran the ball about 60% of the time.People REALLY underestimate how good he's going to be if/when he passes a few more times every week.

Remember, this was PPG not straight rankings. Nothing really out of the ordinary. 1 pt per 20 passing yards, 1 pt per 10 rushing yards, 6 pts all TD, -2 INT and fumbles.20061. McNabb 25.5 2. Manning 25.4 3. Brees 21.7 4. Bulger 21.0 5. Palmer 20.2 6. Vick 19.5 7. Brady 18.4 8. Kitna 18.1 9. Cutler 18.0 10. Rivers 17.3 11. Leftwich 17.0 12. Campbell 16.9 13. Hasselbeck 16.8 14. Roethlisberger 16.5 200518. Roethlisberger 16.6200420. Roethlisberger 15.5The other thing which apparetnly people are assuming is that passing more will equate to similar success at a similar rate. However, perhaps Big Ben got as many TD or big plays due in part to the fact that teams were stacking the line to stop the run. If the Steelers due go more vertical, it's possibly that his numbers don't go up by the percentage that some may be projecting.

 

[LHUCKS]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts.

You're looking at the wrong dataset.

Nope.Rushing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing yards (#9):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_2=4

Do you find anything flawed with your argument?

Just illustrating a flaw in yours...

5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime.

I didn't realize "regime" referred to one year.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

I agree with the other 4 reasons, but this is just coach talk. Every coach promises a high powered offense and a stellar defense and a top-notch special team, etc.

True to an extent, but I do expect an increase in pass attempts. Nobody loved to run the ball as much as Cowher.

Last year, PIT was ranked #15 in rushing attempts and #15 in passing attempts.

You're looking at the wrong dataset.

Nope.Rushing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing attempts (#15):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_1=4

Passing yards (#9):

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-...&_1:col_2=4

Do you find anything flawed with your argument?

Just illustrating a flaw in yours...

5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime.

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT1 2002--2006 PIT 2574 10294 4.00 553 78 5088.75

2 2002--2006 DEN 2540 11926 4.70 640 91 5323.10

3 2002--2006 ATL 2534 12462 4.92 635 85 4671.80

4 2002--2006 KC 2418 11043 4.57 641 131 5894.60

5 2002--2006 SD 2382 11106 4.66 620 113 5451.00

Nope the Stillers didn't run the ball all that much.

 

[EBF]

Welcome to the dark side, my apprentice.

 

[EBF]

Also, don't forget about Nate Washington and Willie Reid. They can both stretch the field.

 

[Godsbrother]

I'm agreeing with you overall, just not to the extent that you are pimping him. New coaches, new system, new plays, new learning curve. I'm guessing slow out of the gate, a mixed bag in the middle, and maybe some decent numbers by the end of the year.

He certainly won't be an expensive investment on draft day so that in itself makes him seem like an intriguing choice. Maybe he produces as a marginal QB1, but I'm thinking that he won't vault up in to the Top half of QB1s. So basically he may be servicable but not a major difference maker.

IMO the real value for Ben will be in 2008 once everybody gets on the same page.

I doubt very much that Arians is going to change the system and terminology that he and his entire offensive team has been using for the past couple of years. There will be a new wrinkle or two but he is not going to scrap everything and start from scratch. His play calling on game day may be different than Whisenhunt but I bet the actual system they use is not going to change much, if at all.

 

[JAA]

where's EBF when you need him

 

[Tau837]

Steelers lost more games this year. They were behind more and naturally passed more. While the offense looked more balanced in terms of pass versus run, was that the ideal scenario for the Steelers? I would say the balance shown was more indicative of their losing than a sign of a healthy offense. The Steelers are a smashmouth team. In that kind of offense, Big Ben shows his worth on 3rd down. That's all he has to do, convert a good number of third downs and limit his number of interceptions. As for his rep as a game manager, I don't see the big deal, his talents are suited there. I've watched a few of his games and he takes whats given to him by the defense. He's got good instincts and good footwork. There's nothing wrong with being a game manager if you win. In fact, Elways last years arguably had him be more of a game manager while Terrell Davis ran wild. You can't make Big Ben be something that he's not. Look at Jake Plummer. Denver tried to make him a conservative WCO QB. He puts up good stats but he's feast or famine. Plummer isn't suited to be that kind of QB. Plummer is a shake and bake, balls to the wall gunslinger. Sure he made alot of stupid plays being a gunslinger but you can't make a gunslinger into a chain gang boss. Hopefully Tomlin and Arians can limit Big Ben to what he does well and not try to force him to do things that he's just not suited for.

Good post... but I get the impression you're talking NFL, not fantasy, whereas I think LHUCKS was saying he'll be underrated as a fantasy QB. You seem to suggest that Ben's passing attempts will drop somewhat as the Steelers regress back some to their mean of recent years. That would imply some regression to previous years for Ben as well, which would make him a backup fantasy QB.

 

[LHUCKS]

whereas I think LHUCKS was saying he'll be underrated as a fantasy QB.

Yes, this is purely a discussion for fantasy purposes.

 

[Phurfur]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

If he has a great season you will be right. I will not have him as my #1 QB next year and I think most people are thinking that way. He will be a desireable #2.

 

[Jous]

I'm not really that big into FF so I dunno what value this will get him... but here are my predictions for Big ben's numbers next year...

63% completion

3,218 yards

7.9 YPA

22 TD's

14 INT's

3 rushing TD's

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Steelers lost more games this year. They were behind more and naturally passed more. While the offense looked more balanced in terms of pass versus run, was that the ideal scenario for the Steelers? I would say the balance shown was more indicative of their losing than a sign of a healthy offense. The Steelers are a smashmouth team. In that kind of offense, Big Ben shows his worth on 3rd down. That's all he has to do, convert a good number of third downs and limit his number of interceptions. As for his rep as a game manager, I don't see the big deal, his talents are suited there. I've watched a few of his games and he takes whats given to him by the defense. He's got good instincts and good footwork. There's nothing wrong with being a game manager if you win. In fact, Elways last years arguably had him be more of a game manager while Terrell Davis ran wild. You can't make Big Ben be something that he's not. Look at Jake Plummer. Denver tried to make him a conservative WCO QB. He puts up good stats but he's feast or famine. Plummer isn't suited to be that kind of QB. Plummer is a shake and bake, balls to the wall gunslinger. Sure he made alot of stupid plays being a gunslinger but you can't make a gunslinger into a chain gang boss. Hopefully Tomlin and Arians can limit Big Ben to what he does well and not try to force him to do things that he's just not suited for.

I think you're right about the higher pass/run ratio being a result of being behind more often, but I think you're off base on Ben's skill set. He's not really set up to be a "game manager" at all. In his college career, he threw the ball a ton. He also looks to make the big play more than most QBs I've seen. When he gets flushed from the pocket, he's not looking to dump off or throw it away, his eyes are downfield. If anything, he forces it into coverage too often trying to make a play when he should get rid of it.The guy has more Favre in him than Manning, Brady, or any other big time QB in recent memory. I think the more he gets a chance to throw, the more electrifying he'll be, although he may have a lot of turnovers, as Favre often does.

 

[Assani Fisher]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes

3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg

4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB

5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

If you were to rank every team's receiving options(WR, TE, and RB's receiving ability) where would you put the Steelers?

 

[jeter23]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

When did Miami OH move to the Pac 10?

 

[LHUCKS]

1. New head coach Tomlin promises high powered passing offense

2. Three great targets in Ward, Miller and emerging star S. Holmes

3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg

4. Big Ben is underrated as a passing QB

5. People will mistakenly be thinking of the old, run-first regime

If you were to rank every team's receiving options(WR, TE, and RB's receiving ability) where would you put the Steelers?

Above Average

 

[Bri]

3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg

in a 12 team league that equates to the 3rd worst starting QB

 

[EBF]

3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg

in a 12 team league that equates to the 3rd worst starting QB

Fuzzy math. How often are the QB1-QB9 all on different FF teams? Realistically, QB10 is probably a middle of the road starter because there's going to be some overlap with some of the QB1-QB9 guys being on the same FF teams. For example, if a team had Manning and Kitna then it probably never started Kitna, which means he essentially didn't exist in that league.

 

[EBF]

Another thing to consider:

Roeth's first 3 starts last year represented 3 of his worst 4 games of the season. I think there's some reason to believe that those games were deceptive because he was still recovering from the motorcycle accident and the appendix problem. If you exclude those games then his PPG jumps up into the QB6-7 range.

 

[LHUCKS]

3. Despite injuries, Big Ben 10th in QB ppg

in a 12 team league that equates to the 3rd worst starting QB

Right...and you can draft him as a backup in most 12 team leagues...thus giving you the best backup in the league.

 

[BGP]

One of the concerns is the TD/INT ratio.

It was horrible in 06.

Its very hard to find a veteran QB that throws more picks than scores in multiple seasons and keeps his job. You see it from a young unaccomplished QB sometimes, but that's it.

Ben IS on the hot seat in 2007. I think its fair to say he will turn it around. But if he starts 07 slow, he may hit the pine quick.

And then on top of that he is injury-prone anyway.

And then you have the fact that there is a new head coach who is not beholden to Ben. Ben isn't his player. He didn't draft Ben. If Ben flames out, it doesn't look bad on Tomlin.

I believe he can be a good starter. But I think if he is undervalued its because people are more concerned with these risks than others.

 

[EBF]

Ben IS on the hot seat in 2007. I think its fair to say he will turn it around. But if he starts 07 slow, he may hit the pine quick.

I don't buy it. He's the face of the franchise and the guy at the controls of their big seasons in 2004 and 2005. He's not the kind of player who gets benched after an 8-8 season and a few bad games. In fact, of all the QBs playing in the NFL right now, I think he's one of the few guys who is a lock to remain a starter in the league for a long time. He pretty much had the worst year possible last year from an NFL perspective and was still decent enough to keep the Steelers in the playoff picture in a tough division.