M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
calling it now. 
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That's great. Do you have any reasons or just a hunch?
Joe T
Footballguy
Where do I begin?
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Reasons?Ranking Brown at 7 is absolutely laughable. Both Jones in the teens is also a huge mistake.
I have Brown at 14, Julius Jones at 26, and Kevin Jones at 28.
This is the triumverate of hype that will bust your draft.
There's a big difference between "this year's McGahee" and "should be ranked in the 10-15 vicinity"
McGahee was awful last year. I think he actually finished outside of the top 20 in our league. So, yes, I ask again, please list the reasons for why everyone thinks Brown is going to be a dud this year.
McGahee was awful last year. I think he actually finished outside of the top 20 in our league. So, yes, I ask again, please list the reasons for why everyone thinks Brown is going to be a dud this year.
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
let's see1) new QB - who is coming off double knee surgery, and his worst year of his career
2) avg 15 carries per game, for 900 yds...
3) Ricky Williams only had 168 carries - only 700 yrds, giving them a combined 1600, which, if he GOT THEM ALL, and run just as well, and not broken down, would have finished 4th.
4) he doesn't know what a full season of getting his ### kicked feels like yet
5) LJ, LT, SA, Tiki all will easily crush him, barring injury.
6) the rest who will still beat him:
Edge (yes, in a new uniform, he'll still eat RBrown's lunch)
Rudi
Dunn
Deuce
Caddy
LaMont (the big dummy)
JJones
Dom Davis.
We're at 12, (edit: added 2 more) and we haven't even started with some guys who are better veterans.
I don't see him able to carry 300 balls. That's what it will take.
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M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
You're wrong here, btw.McGahee was ranked in top 5-7 RBs last year, all hype. He finished like #16. Brown is also ranked highly, and will finish mid-high teens.
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
I'd love to know why any staff member thinks this guy can carry the load for a full season, given that he's never done it past high school.
Ever.
Ever.
link to rankings? I wasn't aware they had been posted yet and don't see a link on the home page.
EDIT: nm, used last year's archives to find them.
EDIT: nm, used last year's archives to find them.
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please post the 27 RBs who you feel will outperform Kevin Jones this year. TIA.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Brown owner but I'll take him overEdge- Did you see any holes in Arizona last year. Yes Edge is a stud but he can't fly.let's see1) new QB - who is coming off double knee surgery, and his worst year of his career
2) avg 15 carries per game, for 900 yds...
3) Ricky Williams only had 168 carries - only 700 yrds, giving them a combined 1600, which, if he GOT THEM ALL, and run just as well, and not broken down, would have finished 4th.
4) he doesn't know what a full season of getting his ### kicked feels like yet
5) LJ, LT, SA, Tiki all will easily crush him, barring injury.
6) the rest who will still beat him:
Edge (yes, in a new uniform, he'll still eat RBrown's lunch)
Rudi
Dunn
Deuce
Caddy
LaMont (the big dummy)
JJones
Dom Davis.
We're at 12, (edit: added 2 more) and we haven't even started with some guys who are better veterans.
I don't see him able to carry 300 balls. That's what it will take.
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I like Rudi more
Dunn-Are you serious. This guy will never get a td unless he breaks one for 20 yards and out plus he's 31 now. He had the his best #'s a s a pro and was still in the mid teens. I'll take my chances with Brown.
Duece- Are you ------- serious, dude come on 1)he's coming off an ACL 2) They just draft Reggie Bush
Caddy- This one is close, I like Brown better but I could listen to a good arguement and be swayed to agree. His durability is still in ? as well though.
Lamont- I'd rather have him.
J. Jones- I think I'd rather have Jones but T.O. is gonna want the ball and M. Barber is breathing down his throat. Jones is also one of the biggest ladies in the NFL. Maybe he'll make it through a whole year this year.
D. Davis- You go right ahead and draft this guy before Brown. I'll be the one laughing in the corner.
I have about 6 people in front of him on this list plus probably 2 or 3 more. Somewhere around 9-11 for me. I love how many can quickly forget how bad some teams lines are. Jim Brown wouldn't look good behind the Ariz. line. Edge will not be a top 15 rb this year.
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
WCOFF scoring...Larry Johnson
Shaun Alexander
LaDainian Tomlinson
Lamont Jordan
Edgerrin James
Brian Westbrook
Steven Jackson
Tatum Bell
Clinton Portis
Tiki Barber
Willis McGahee
Domanick Davis
Rudi Johnson
Ronnie Brown
Reuben Droughns
Cadillac Williams
Willie Parker
Ahman Green
Thomas Jones
Jamal Lewis
Warrick Dunn
Deuce McAllister
Corey Dillon
DeShaun Foster
Chester Taylor
Julius Jones
LenDale White
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Fine, but isn't this b/c he had a partner with an equal talent level to share the load with during those 5 seasons? I don't see Travis Minor or Lamar Gordon pushing for touches the way Ricky and Caddie did.
How can you say Ronnie can't carry the load when he's never had the opportunity to do so?
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I feel dumb after looking at this list.I don't love K. Jones but A. Green is horrible and hurt and the 2 don't go together to good. Lendale White, huh. Duece I mean come on you got your opinion but I think most people would have K. Jones in the top 20.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
How can I be wrong about a statistical fact? McGahee was not in the top 20 of my league, as I said in the earlier post. You made me actually go to my site an count to double check. Thanks for giving reasons. I appreciate hearing people's thoughts, as opposed to just wondering why you disagree with the ranking.
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bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Nobody is saying that it is impossible for him to do it. However, to rank him that high completely ignores many of the risks he carries.Linked is an article I did for ITS that targeted a player with limited history and explaining the risk associated with him. Appropriately enough I showed Michael Clayton as my example for a player who would be overhyped and over-ranked based on a limited sample size of production.
Fantasy Football Risk
what about in non-PPR leagues? do you rank him lower or higher? what type of numbers do you project for K.Jones this year (ballpark figure)?
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bagger.
The One Play Quiz
good thing i have baggerapp2000™ to run sensitivity...kevin jones is at 27.
the 26 who outperform him...
Larry Johnson
Shaun Alexander
LaDainian Tomlinson
Edgerrin James
Tatum Bell
Lamont Jordan
Clinton Portis
Steven Jackson
Brian Westbrook
Tiki Barber
Willis McGahee
Rudi Johnson
Domanick Davis
Willie Parker
Ronnie Brown
Cadillac Williams
Reuben Droughns
Thomas Jones
Ahman Green
Jamal Lewis
Warrick Dunn
LenDale White
Corey Dillon
Deuce McAllister
DeShaun Foster
Julius Jones
projected #s for K. Jones currently:
227 rushes / 929 yards / 5 TDs
20 rec / 118 yards / 0 TDs
bagger.
The One Play Quiz
Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
I'm still trying to figure out my thoughts on Brown this season. However it is premature one way or the other to say he cannot handle a full load at running back. Just because he shared the position with other ultra-talented backs doesn't mean he can't carry the load with his size and quickness...Your reasons to not have him top-ten are valid.
Reasons to rank him high include...
1) No competition for touches in the backfield.
2) Hudson Houck, OL coach guru began working his magic with the line at the end of last season. They'll be even better this year as he gets the most out of his talent base.
3) Great receiving skills. Where he separates from guys like Rudi Johnson will be his tremendous receiving skills. He will add production via the passing game.
4) His skill set is tremendous. He is quick, very explosive and runs with power to boot.
5) Culpepper may be injured but he and Harrington are still better than the driftwood that has been under center over the past several years. IF Culpepper can go, his presence will take some pressure off of Brown IMO.
It's very early in the ranking season and I'm still finishing off my projections. However there are as many reasons to rank him top-ten then outside it.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Why love for Caddy then, We are saying that Brown WILL get hurt becaus ehe can't carry the load when Caddy has gotten hurt by not being able to carry the load. Caddy also has more competition and will not ever get goalline carries as long as #40 is around.
would be tough for anyone to argue that Caddy has less injury risk than Ronnie Brown.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Are you talking about the game where he had 130 yards rushing against Atl or art you talking about the game before that against NE where had had 14 rushed for 23 yards. Take away the 2 games against Atl where he ran for 266 yards and he had a medocire season.Inconsistent and will get worn down
carlosnphilly
Footballguy
Unlike those other schmucks, Brown will be an asset in PPR leagues as well. I know you'll combat, he only caught 32 passes, etc etc......he was splitting time as well.
Lamont Jordan averaged like 3.8 yards/carry last year, is no better receiver & yet people are still all over his nuts.
Lamont Jordan averaged like 3.8 yards/carry last year, is no better receiver & yet people are still all over his nuts.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
#4 is what I was talking about earlier and in good Englishlet's see1) new QB - who is coming off double knee surgery, and his worst year of his career
2) avg 15 carries per game, for 900 yds...
3) Ricky Williams only had 168 carries - only 700 yrds, giving them a combined 1600, which, if he GOT THEM ALL, and run just as well, and not broken down, would have finished 4th.
4) he doesn't know what a full season of getting his ### kicked feels like yet
5) LJ, LT, SA, Tiki all will easily crush him, barring injury.
6) the rest who will still beat him:
Edge (yes, in a new uniform, he'll still eat RBrown's lunch)
Rudi
Dunn
Deuce
Caddy
LaMont (the big dummy)
JJones
Dom Davis.
We're at 12, (edit: added 2 more) and we haven't even started with some guys who are better veterans.
I don't see him able to carry 300 balls. That's what it will take.
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Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
Every year, running backs elevate their play to jump into the top ten. Conversely, often running backs parked in the top ten fall out of it as well.You have to take chances on players at times in fantasy football. Brown is an early 1st round pick with all the skills necessary to be elite. His upside could put your team over the top.
I understand the flip side of the equation as well but in my opinion, Edgerrin James moving to the desert to run behing a pedestrian offensive line (the OL will be better than a year ago though) is at least a big of a risk going into this season.
Brown is young, with fresh legs and lots of great intangibles. He may be #5 on my list when I'm done projection and he may be #12 but I will go on record right now and state that he is NOT the next Barlow.
carlosnphilly
Footballguy
That's 50 catches with RW now gone. Feel free to find me many other RB's with 4.0+ YPG/1000 yard+ rushing potential and 50+ catch potential. And I'm guessing if Moss is 100% this year and Collins gone, it won't be dink and dunk all day to Jordan either.
And unlike your Barlow example (who had no passing game whatsoever during his downfall), Brown will have Pepper/Chambers/McMichael. Hell, Booker is better than anything SF had at WR in 2004.
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I'll give people SA, LT2, Tiki, LJ and Edge ahead of Brown. None of the rest have any less ?'s than Brown.
Chris Smith
The Head Goon!
BTW: Since 1998, the highest fantasy season on record is
Marshall Faulk's 374.90 FP effort in 2000.
He had only 253 carries that season.
Being able to catch the ball can definitely add to the fantasy worth of a running back. Brown has that ability.
Marshall Faulk's 374.90 FP effort in 2000.
He had only 253 carries that season.
Being able to catch the ball can definitely add to the fantasy worth of a running back. Brown has that ability.
dgreen
Footballguy
IF your top 10 for 2006 looks similar to 2005 and IF you have Brown at 14, it seems to me, somehow, Brown has as good a shot as many others at the top 10.I don't play redraft, so I'm not certain where I'd rank Brown right now. Probably somewhere around 10. It doesn't bother me to have an abundance of data to support such a prediction. You have to make a prediction based on what you have. And, the couple times I watched Brown last year, I really liked what I saw. He's got skills.Maybe on average, but who says that even if that is true that it will be Brown?
I would imagine that part of that turnover is due to injuries that nobody can predict. Therefore knowing what we know now how do you justifiably rank Brown higher other than hype?
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