If you read the content of my post you see that my main point is a lot of people are expecting a huge rebound for Ronnie Brown this year and they believe he might post first 7 games of 2007 type numbers.Remember though these are the same people who thought he would light it up in the second half of last season. Which he clearly didn't.To answer your question I watched a lot of Dolphins games last year and to me the running back committee that existed between Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown still seems to be in full effect.Ronnie Brown should improve this year. If he doesn't it would be a major disappointment to all of his owners. What I am saying is that well I do believe he'll improve I don't think he'll improve by that much. The main thing I got out of watching the preseason game was that the coaching still want to use Ricky Williams quite a bit.
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Ronnie Brown is going too high on Draft Boards (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gradin123
- Start date
gregjcross
Footballguy
THe committee in Miami extends beyond Ronnie/Ricky, which is the big problem. It extends to Patrick Cobbs and whoever else they think can do something-maybe Pat White or Lex Hilliard this year. If you added just Cobbs stats to Brown's last year he would have been the elite back that everyone hopes for. Unfortunately, that is not Sparano's blueprint. So Brown is a value as a third or fourth back but a stretch as a #2 until they give him the rock.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
A player's ADP and how individuals think he'll be used are two really different things. Some people label players as injury prone and refuse to draft him, others disregard any such label and draft as if injury risk was totally irrelavent. Some people are concerned the second string back will take carries away while other see the second string back as a cheap handcuff. PPR guys are more concerned with receiving ability than non-PPR guys. Brown has a middle of the pack ADP for an NFL starting RB. I really dont see much reason to have a debate about it.
massraider
Footballguy
He's being drafted in the mid-3rd isn't he?
two_dollars
Footballguy
Bump for more discussion
hauser42
Footballguy
Ryan Grant should be ahead of both Brown and Kevin Smith.
Brown is going to be the #1 guy at the Miami. It was pointed out that Miami did not have the ball a lot in the first half but Brown got a lot of touches. Ricky is the backup and only change with an injury. R. Brown could easily be a RB1 with carries he will recieve as Dolphins main guy. O-line is better than last year and year past injury. Bigger Point is that Sparano is from the Parcells tree and will pound the rock all game long to control clock and let the D beat the other team up.
Brown is going to be the #1 guy at the Miami. It was pointed out that Miami did not have the ball a lot in the first half but Brown got a lot of touches. Ricky is the backup and only change with an injury. R. Brown could easily be a RB1 with carries he will recieve as Dolphins main guy. O-line is better than last year and year past injury. Bigger Point is that Sparano is from the Parcells tree and will pound the rock all game long to control clock and let the D beat the other team up.
Arizona Ron
Footballguy
Traders2001
Footballguy
Easy . Williams is finished ...
simmonjm
Footballguy
I am staying as far away as possible from Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are on borrowed time IMO. Last year they won with smoke and mirrors, defensive coordinators around the league have had an entire offseason to dissect the Wildcat. I will be surprised if Miami finishes with more then 4 wins and I can promise you this is not fishing. In addition to all of this, guys like Patrick Cobb, Ricky Williams will have a role in an already anemic offense to pretty much cancel any chance of Ronnie Brown finishing in the top 25. Last year Ronnie Brown was not even a good second RB, this year will be much of the same.
flintpanthers
Footballguy
Just a note to those who think Brown cannot run for a team that loses alot of games. In 2007 when he was having a career year before injury, the Dolphins had exactly 0 wins at the time of his injury. This team has a better O-line. I do not care if they do just win 4 games. This team will run whenever possible. A healthy Brown will only be pulled for a breather by RW and the occasional pass to Cobbs is fine. If there is a RB in the league that does not come out from time to time let me know. The last time I can remember it happening Gruden was destroying Caddilacs career in Tampa. And if you compare Williams to the other backups in the league it would be easy to assume Brown for a much larger role this year.
See what I mean now? Only one game but the early results aren't good and it still looks like a committee to me.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Watched every play. It was not encouraging, but I would not throw in the towel just yet. That game was an absolute disaster for the Fins offense. Every time they got anything going they turned it over. The OL (which should be a strength) got abused all day. Ronnie ran OK. Nothing special. Ricky looked at least as good when given the opportunity. It was not a good game for Ronnie's fantasy value.That said, I see him as a good buy low. I think Ronnie owners everywhere are probably freaking out right now. The truth is, he remains the team's best offensive weapon. He is a good receiver and their best pure runner. The team will base every gameplan on playing solid D, and running the football. The OL should bounce back. There is a lot of talent and a ton of money on that OL. Sparano is a former OL coach. I have to believe there will be a massive improvement over what we saw yesterday.If I did not have as much faith in the coaching staff as I do, I would be more concerned. However, I feel that they will right this ship. If you look over Ronnie's career, I bet you will see that he is awful in weeks 1 and 2 every season, including his awesome 7 week season in 2007. He did all that damage starting in week 3. The staff is not stupid - they know he is their best playmaker. I still see him geting 18-25 touches per game in the games where Miami can stay in it. This one was 19-0 in the 4th, and Ronnie was pretty much out of the gameplan. Buy low!
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Banger
Footballguy
I was saying the same thing in the offseason. I didn't see why they would change what worked last year. I didn't really see anything from the coaching staff saying there would be a change and no one was able to provide any good links in the threads I posted in. The typical response was that Brown is in year #2 after the surgery so he'll be better, he's a UFA after the year so he'll run harder since he's in a contract year and he's a better back than Williams so he'll get the majority of the carries. There's still a lot of football to be played but I avoided Brown again this year, even though his value was better this year. I'm curious to see how it turns out this year.....gradin123 said:
Your post just gave NUMEROUS reasons to sell Ronnie Brown while you can still can...yet your clear homerism (nothing wrong with that) says to buy low.Why on earth would we want to buy low?Terrible team - are there reasons to think they'll improve a great deal? Not in my eyes.Stuck in a rbbc with Ricky - we have never had reasons to think that will end - just speculation. Believe what you see. O-line is awful - okay, this is the one area I think will turn around, though they looked lousy in the preseason.I don't want to overreact to week one, but some things are a trend...it's better to sell while you can before the value totally vanishes. I'd sell right now if you can get reasonable value. Let someone else think they're "buying low" while in my opinion you're really selling before it gets lower.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
This is what makes the market work. Some will think he is a buy, and some will think he is a sell.As for your reasons to sell...
Terrible team - are there reasons to think they'll improve a great deal? Not in my eyes.
Terrbile team? They just finished 11-5 and won the division. Sure, it was an easy schedule, but terrible teams do not win 11 games in the NFL. Are they a legit 11-5 team? Probably not. But "terrible" seems a bit aggressive after week 1. hey started 0-2 last year, and went 11-3 to finish the season. I am sure we will hear now all about how easy the schedule was, but 11 wins is 11 wins in the NFL.
Stuck in a rbbc with Ricky - we have never had reasons to think that will end - just speculation. Believe what you see.
Could be so. I believe that the team needs to see what they have in Ronnie this season, and that a 32 year old running back is best suited as a backup/insurance plan. I hope the coaches see it the same way. Could go either way. No way to know after this game. They will hopefully not be shut down like this on a regular basis, and will hopefully not end every drive prematurely with a turnover. They had only 13 all year last year. Maybe that was an abberration, but 4 per week is not likely to continue.
O-line is awful - okay, this is the one area I think will turn around, though they looked lousy in the preseason.
Gotta believe it will gel. If not, it will be a long season. Although, Ronnie's magical 5 game stretch in 07 came behind probably the worst OL that has been in Miami since their expansion year.
I still say that if you can get him at a discount after an awful week 1, then you should. Been wrong before (plenty) - especially when my homer blinders are on - but I see the talent and opportunity still, and for a week 1 discount, I woudl get him if I could.
ufshowboat
Footballguy
I think most owners are thinking this already.... They have Ronnie Brown on your roster and think the Dolphins STINK, that O-line is terrible, and Ricky Williams had better stats so they will probably share the load 50-50..... So that is an owner you target to buy him low.....I think you missed the point of what the other Dolphin fan was saying.... which I think was that those 3 points are the opinion of most people in Week 1... but we have reason to believe they are not true... and therefore his value is more than what people currently may think... make sense? I think that was his point and I think he mostly said why too.Terrible team? This team is not terrible. They had a terrible week 1. They have good coaching and solid talent and showed us last year they can right the ship. Its only one game.O-line is awful? They spent a ton of money to improve the O-line and have the O-line coaching to improve over that bad week 1 showing. Again, terrible wee 1, but tons of room for improvement and the pieces in place to do so.Stuck in RBBC? While I am not saying Ricky wont get some carries.... I would hope management realizes that Ronnie Brown is their stud. Why in the world would Ronnie Brown only get 4 carries in the first half? They have to fix that. The Dolphins play their best when they center the team around Ronnie Brown. The fanbase knows this and it gives me reason to think that it won't be 50-50. Brown is supposedly in the best shape of his life and he is the best player on the team. So go ahead an project his entire season based off of 1 week, but I believe that is an over-reaction.So basically I think all 3 reasons have a good chance to be false and therefore Brown's value is good right now. If you disagree then you think his value is low for good, which is fine. Just an opinion.
Banger
Footballguy
I'm not sure why. He's had 32, 33, 39 and 33 in his 4 years. The 39 were in 7 games with Cameron where he was force fed. Most recent history, last year, with the same staff he had 33. They haven't change QBs, haven't changed the system or play callers so why the big spike in receptions (outside of optimism)?
ufshowboat
Footballguy
haha Chuck. You got the response in before I could respond for you. Good work.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Interesting. If you didn't look that up, good call. I looked it up. For his 4 years:Weeks 1 and 2 ---- 103 - 305 - 3 - (2.96 ypc)Weeks 3 and 4 ---- 157 - 872 - 9 - (5.55 ypc)
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
We basically both gave the exact same long winded response. Pretty funny.For the record, I am not feeling great about the situation. They did look atrocious yesterday on offense. The D looked solid against the run, but Ryan missed some easy long passes. The final score could have been uglier. They have a lot of work to do this week.
gregjcross
Footballguy
Stuck in RBBC: It doesn't matter what people "hope" regarding what management might do int the future. Today's management, read Sparano, is 100% commited to not giving any one player a great majority of touches, throughout their entire offense, not just the RBs. It hasn't changed and doesn't look like it will unless you want to pin your team on hope. Yesterday was pathetic for fantasy owners and I'm glad I'm off this train for good.
sweetness34
Footballguy
(for the record, i do own Brown this year - not because I really wanted him, he just came cheap in my auction)
Serious question:
It seems like everyone's knock on Brown is that he is in a RBBC. I have no problem with that, and yeah, I'm somewhat concerned after yesterday, but not yet worried.
What I don't understand is, why have I seen numerous/multiple posts/threads about avoiding Brown because of the RBBC, but I haven't seen nearly as many saying to avoid Jacobs, C. Johnson, or Rice when their situations seem as solidly in a RBBC as Brown? (and almost everyone (save Waldman) had Jacobs and CJ ranked much higher, and some even had Rice higher.) I'm not trying to debate talent level of all of these guys (or is that your whole argument, talent?) Is it just the team/surrounding situation that is THAT much worse for Brown?
Just honestly wondering the SP's opinion...
Serious question:
It seems like everyone's knock on Brown is that he is in a RBBC. I have no problem with that, and yeah, I'm somewhat concerned after yesterday, but not yet worried.
What I don't understand is, why have I seen numerous/multiple posts/threads about avoiding Brown because of the RBBC, but I haven't seen nearly as many saying to avoid Jacobs, C. Johnson, or Rice when their situations seem as solidly in a RBBC as Brown? (and almost everyone (save Waldman) had Jacobs and CJ ranked much higher, and some even had Rice higher.) I'm not trying to debate talent level of all of these guys (or is that your whole argument, talent?) Is it just the team/surrounding situation that is THAT much worse for Brown?
Just honestly wondering the SP's opinion...
I appreciate the responses guys. But why do Phins homers keep thinking Ronnie will start getting a lot more work? When have we EVER seen any indication of that? Heck, even last year when he was allegedly getting healthy, he started getting fewer carries as the season went along compared to Ricky.
The coaches have said, and shown, this will be a RBBC. It doesn't matter how much we keep saying it should be different, or that they can't keep giving Ronnie so few carries, but I have yet to see why things should change.
The coaches have said, and shown, this will be a RBBC. It doesn't matter how much we keep saying it should be different, or that they can't keep giving Ronnie so few carries, but I have yet to see why things should change.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Nobody on the staff has said that it will change. However, how many RB2s are you going to get that dont have someone stealing carries from them? Ryan Grant may be the only one. There are plenty of RB1s that share carries, as was just pointed out by Sweetness. Thats the NFL today. I like Ronnie's chances to rebound and get a larger share of the pie than a 32 year old ricky Williams who just announced that he is retiring at the end of the 2010 season. He may not get 300 carries this season, but not too many RB2s will. I still see him as a weekly starter at RB2, and with his value clearly depressed after a horrid week 1, I still say buy!
Banger
Footballguy
CJohnson and Jacobs >> R. Brown but are more expensive options, they are more talented (IMO) and are on better offenses with great rushing attacks/philosophies. Rice is in the same boat (as far as philosophy) was generally a cheaper option than Brown but with a good bit of upside. I think it's the expectations surrounding Brown....the Brown buyers think he's going to be the main back while the detractors think he'll be in a RBBC like last year (at least that's my feeling). Not that that's the worst thing in the world but there are people thinking top 10 finishes for him and that's not going to happen in that offense in a RBBC.
Wasn't he being picked as a RB2 based on him getting more carries and not being in a RBBC? Other than his 4 TD game, he hasn't shown me much since the injury. Not buying him.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Anyone traded Brown? WHat RBs are you getting in return?
Defending Champs
Footballguy
I'm holding him as noted before you would be in a sell low situation. I'd hate to see what I got in retrun for a guy that had minimal carries and production scenario.BuySellHoldI think Hold is the best option. I don't want to sell him as his value is too low. If I didn't own him, I wouldn't reach out and buy him after his week 1 performance. Since I do own him, let's just wait and see what week 2 brings us.I am going to TRY and remain optimistic at this point. I may toss Ray Rice in my line-up in lieau of Ronnie till he gets this thing going.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I'm trying to move him. Offered him straight up for McFadden & have him in a package to get Jacobs. Both offers are awaiting reply.
Defending Champs
Footballguy
I guess that is my point. Trust me, I don't blame you for trying, but if I received the offer, I would not accept after week 1 and heck, I own the guy. I was big on him from day 1, I hope it was a one week anomoly and I was correct to begin with. But if I didn't own him, I probably wouldn't be out shopping for him.
http://profootballfocus.com/pstats.php?gameid=1396
Ronnie was in for 71% of plays...Ricky was in for 41%.
Ronnie was in for 71% of plays...Ricky was in for 41%.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
I inquired with another owner about sending Ronnie Brown over in exchange for Cedric Benson and a bench/throw-in WR... He wasn't interested.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I'd give Ronnie Brown more time to produce. I don't think he's going to light the world on fire but he will be a decent RB2. They never really got the offense moving and fell behind taking Miami out of an optimal running situation. Atlanta looked solid to me, barring injuries that team looks like a team who's going to make the playoffs. That wasn't an easy spot at all, there will be easier ones. I think Brown has a pretty good shot at getting into the endzone this week in fact.
Johnny Ice
Footballguy
I agree it's way too early to give up on Brown. If the Miami offense is putting up points consistently without him then I would wave the white flag.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
YWIAWow... already get to put you on ignore... yippeee.Do you have a comedy act in Vegas? Free admission to that?
Brutis
Footballguy
I hadnt heard that, funny as hell!!
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BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
So, roughly 7:4 ratio in the first game this year. Last year, the play counts were 679 for Brown and 509 for Williams, or about a 4:3 ratio. Isn't that an indication that Brown is being given more work?
gpthatsme
Footballguy
Of the 71% he was in the game, he attempted 10 rushes and was targeted 4 times. Meaning, he was the target of the ball 14 of the 42 times he was on the field. There were 59 total offensive plays on the day. 14 targets out of 59 plays is only 23% I would say he has the talent to demand the ball more than 23% of his teams entire offensive scheme.He will have Monday night to show us what he's got. Let's hope he and the staff get together and plan to show us something good.
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az_prof
Footballguy
I wonder how that compares to Fred Jackson? Does anyone really believe he is so untalented compared to a Fred jackson? I don't.
gpthatsme
Footballguy
There were 48 offensive plays in the game for the Bills on Monday Night. Fred Jackson attempted 15 rushes and he was targeted 7 times for a total of 22 attempted touches. Thus, he was the target of 46% of their offensive scheme - exactly double that (percentage wise) of Ronnie Brown in his first game.
Banger
Footballguy
if you can swing it for Slaton that's a certain upgrade but trading him for Beanie you may able to get something back. If you have depth I'd definitely consider trading Brown and a WR for Beanie and a WR upgrade.
sweetness34
Footballguy
Not arguing at all with your numbers - but doesn't the flow of the game and the score play as much into that as anything? Buff was ahead the whole game - stands to reason they'd run more = more touches for Jackson, naturally. Mia was never in the game - stands to reason they may not be able to run as much = less touches for Brown...I'm not necessarily trying to defend Brown here - I thought Jackson looked great. I'm just saying be careful about making too many comparisons based only on the % of plays/touches one particular played had in a game vs. another in a separate game. Apples-Oranges.
