Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams owners...the sand is running out (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I read what Prisco wrote a few days ago about the upcoming draft and such...but I want to take a look at what Miami has done over the past 12-14 months and why I think Brown and Williams may be running out of time with Miami...or at the least where Ronnie Brown owners might want to take some notice.

Parcells has completely revamped the OL in Miami including LT-Jake Long($57.5 Million), RT-Vernon Carey($42 Million), C-Jake Grove($30 Million), LG-Smiley($25 Million)...that is $150 Million they have spent just on the OL. Meanwhile they have a glaring weakness at WR yet would not pony up the money for any of the FA WRs...maybe none of them were worth the money but its a moot point.

I believe Miami is 100% committed to running the ball. They are not just interested in making the playoffs but actually going far. And to be able to do that with confidence you need to be able to run the ball in December and January on the road in cold weather. Right now Miami is building an OL to do exactly that. They are not trying to recreate the Colts, Broncos, or Saints offense...in fact they are doing a 180 from that. The passing game for Miami is built on short passes to the TEs and RBs plus 5-15 yard routes by the WRs with an occasional look down the field. They are trying to replicate some of what the Steelers, Titans, and Ravens do. Who cares you ask?

Well, if they are going to be a power type running team then I think it is fair to say they want one of the strongest running games in the league, and to do that they will need at least 1 horse in the backfield if not 2-3. Ronnie Brown has been at times amazing and other times very pedestrian. The Dolphins IMO are not set with Brown and Williams. I think Ricky could be moved to an RB3 on the depth charts if Miami can get who they want in the draft. My problem with this being the RB class for 2009 is pretty thin. Brown is signed thru 2010 I doubt that Miami will want to extend his contract. I feel that on top of just pure size that they need some speed in that backfield, someone that can make defenses pay for not being able to stop the run. Brown moving the pile at 4-5 yds a clip is great but they also need some raw speed to explode out of the backfield. Grove helped the Raiders the past couple of seasons to be one of the better running teams in the league, now he has a supporting cast including a couple of book end Tackles with which to operate on his left and right, this could make Miami a very potent running team as long as Penny can continue to keep the defenses honest.

My last point is that even though Miami needs a WR, I don't think they will solve any problems with this in the draft. How many rookie WR selected in the late 1st or anywhere in the 2nd round come out like gangbuster as rookies? Miami doesn't really expect this nor are they resting their season on it, but the idea Miami grabs a WR in the 2nd and is good to go seems like a fairy tale to me. But they can likely grab another RB that will add some dynamics to their backfield and make them a little more explosive.

Don't cry Ronnie Brown owners if Miami selects a RB in the 1st couple of rounds. They are not going to take an OL, they are pretty solid at LB, even DB has been shored up, DEL probably needs another plug at DT but the 2 DEs they selected last year and Starks who they brought over from TN seems like what they are going to roll with. QB-no way...they have literasly gone form cellar dwellers to not being forced to actually take 1 position in less than a year. I'm not saying they have a Super bowl team by any strecth but they are nto awful anywhere other than WR.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Brown was coming off injury but some of his game logs include...

11/25, 13/50, 13/27, 14/43, 20/59, 10/39, 10/37, 15/48, 8/32...not exactly stellar

 

[trader jake]

Also, don't both Brown and Williams contracts run out at the conclusion of the 2009 season?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I gave Miami Cedric Peerman in the 2nd round for a lot of the reasons you describe. I'll be surprised if they don't add a third RB (not counting Cobbs) who will a big part of the RBBC in 2010.

 

[Sweet Love]

MOP,

I don't have a horse in this race, but I am not sure what you are getting at. You mention that the 2009 RB draft class is thin, yet you say RB/RW owners should be nervous. Knowshon will not fall to them, not sure Beanie makes any sense (Ricky and Ronnie can run through tackles), which leaves us with Donald Brown. Unless Miami decides to take him (and he should be there), I think the rest of the bunch would have a hard time unseating Mr. Ronnie Brown. My guess is they punt this year and wait to see how RW holds up in '09.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Ringer? andre Brown?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

MOP,I don't have a horse in this race, but I am not sure what you are getting at. You mention that the 2009 RB draft class is thin, yet you say RB/RW owners should be nervous. Knowshon will not fall to them, not sure Beanie makes any sense (Ricky and Ronnie can run through tackles), which leaves us with Donald Brown. Unless Miami decides to take him (and he should be there), I think the rest of the bunch would have a hard time unseating Mr. Ronnie Brown. My guess is they punt this year and wait to see how RW holds up in '09.

MOP seems to be saying that Ronnie Brown is not getting the job done to the Dolphins' satisfaction. Brown's contract is up at the end of 2009, so we'll see what happens. If the Dolphins take a day one RB, is that the future RB? Is 2009 Brown's tryout for his Dolphin future?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP,I don't have a horse in this race, but I am not sure what you are getting at. You mention that the 2009 RB draft class is thin, yet you say RB/RW owners should be nervous. Knowshon will not fall to them, not sure Beanie makes any sense (Ricky and Ronnie can run through tackles), which leaves us with Donald Brown. Unless Miami decides to take him (and he should be there), I think the rest of the bunch would have a hard time unseating Mr. Ronnie Brown. My guess is they punt this year and wait to see how RW holds up in '09.

What I'm saying is that the rumor mill from people that actually work for or with(radio) the Dolphins are starting to move in this direction. I am fortunate to be able to come in contact with a lot of the personalities for Miami including color commentator for the games Jim Mandich who thinks Miami is leaning towards another RB. If I had the exact answers for who they were selecting I wouldn't be posting in here, I would be in the Parcell's war room which will never happen. Sometimes things are not clear but yet when things happen there is always a group of folks that say "if we only knew"...well I'm saying and I had not seen Bloom's mock yet, but apparently he has a RB going to Miami as well. They took 2 RBs very late in the draft last season but ended up cutting them both and I think they do want more depth at that position. What happens if Ronnie were to go down again? 32 year old Ricky Williams going to carry the load? 1I'm saying in Dynasty that Ronnie Brown owenrs should be fielding offers before the draft. At best the Miami RB1 is a shared load anyways. I'm not hyping a rookie RB here who has yet to be identified, just sayign the waters for Brown owners might get rough over the next few weeks.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

MOP as always excellent analysis and a great post that makes a ton of sense.

-IF miami does draft a RB (early), and with the way Parcells has put together a very good O-line you would have to be very excited about the RB who ends up there.

 

[=Smackdown=]

They currently have Hilliard, Cobbs, Bown & Williams on the roster.

The extended Cobbs in the middle of last year - he is signed through 2010. They like him - he's underrated. A fast little runner who is good on special teams and has good hands.

Make or break year for Ronnie Brown this year - 2 years since his surgery and he's a FA after 2009. IMO I really see him stepping up this year. There is NO doubt they want to be a power running football team. I hope they resign him.

Unless Ricky takes another hometown discount I don't see him as a Dolphin after 2009.

I doubt Parcells takes a RB early in the draft - they have much more pressing needs and the 2009 the backfield is set. If anything Parcells wil take a project RB late in the draft.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

They should have kept Parmele.

 

[EBF]

I'm not a Ronnie fan, but I did trade for him in one league. I don't think there's a back in this class who can easily beat him out for the starting job, so I'm not worried about what happens in April.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm not a Ronnie fan, but I did trade for him in one league. I don't think there's a back in this class who can easily beat him out for the starting job, so I'm not worried about what happens in April.

EBF,1. You just traded for Ronnie Brown, of course you are going to post you are not worried about April.2. Another way to look at it is this, in Dynasty even if the RB that gets drafted does not "unseat" Ronnie, it still does not help his trade value, so what I am trying to accomplish is bringing awareness for a RB that some owners may not see the danger. RBs shelf life is short anyways, Brown is entering year 5...others posted that he is done in 2009, but I think his contract runs through 2010.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I doubt Parcells takes a RB early in the draft - they have much more pressing needs and the 2009 the backfield is set. If anything Parcells wil take a project RB late in the draft.

The problem with this kind of thinking is that draft picks aren't always about immediate need. The best teams are always one step ahead, looking at how the roster projects 2-3 years down the line, not how the roster looks at the moment. Teams don't really expect contributions (at least other than special teams) in year one anyway, except for first day picks. Miami is in perfect position to pick off a first tier back in the late first, or a second tier back with one of their two seconds.

 

[FrostBite]

1993-#1 Drew Bledsdoe QB

1994-#4 Willie McGinest OLB

1995-#23 Ty Law CB

1996-#7 Terry Glenn WR

1997-#8 James Farrior OLB

2003-#5 Terrance Newman CB

2005-#11 DeMarcus Ware OLB

2005-#20 Marcus Spears DE

2006-#18 Bobby Carpenter LB

2008-#1 Jake Long T

I have a hard time believing Parcells will take a RB in the 1st round. The second round (like Bloom said) seems more likely.

 

[valhallan]

I'm saying in Dynasty that Ronnie Brown owenrs should be fielding offers before the draft. At best the Miami RB1 is a shared load anyways. I'm not hyping a rookie RB here who has yet to be identified, just sayign the waters for Brown owners might get rough over the next few weeks.

Knowing when to jump ship on a RB that can still garner some trade value is essential to maintaining a competitive dynasty squad. Great thread, MOP.

 

[EBF]

I'm not a Ronnie fan, but I did trade for him in one league. I don't think there's a back in this class who can easily beat him out for the starting job, so I'm not worried about what happens in April.

EBF,1. You just traded for Ronnie Brown, of course you are going to post you are not worried about April.2. Another way to look at it is this, in Dynasty even if the RB that gets drafted does not "unseat" Ronnie, it still does not help his trade value, so what I am trying to accomplish is bringing awareness for a RB that some owners may not see the danger. RBs shelf life is short anyways, Brown is entering year 5...others posted that he is done in 2009, but I think his contract runs through 2010.

You would've said the same thing about DeAngelo Williams last year. Brown is a hold or a buy right now. It will be his 2nd year back from his knee injury, so he should be back to 100%. There's plenty of upside here at his current cost. IMO, none of the backs in this class have what it takes to unseat him right away. There's no reason to worry.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I'm not a Ronnie fan, but I did trade for him in one league. I don't think there's a back in this class who can easily beat him out for the starting job, so I'm not worried about what happens in April.

EBF,1. You just traded for Ronnie Brown, of course you are going to post you are not worried about April.

OR..."You are not worried about what happens in April, so you traded for Ronnie Brown."

 

[gianmarco]

I'm not a Ronnie fan, but I did trade for him in one league. I don't think there's a back in this class who can easily beat him out for the starting job, so I'm not worried about what happens in April.

EBF,1. You just traded for Ronnie Brown, of course you are going to post you are not worried about April.2. Another way to look at it is this, in Dynasty even if the RB that gets drafted does not "unseat" Ronnie, it still does not help his trade value, so what I am trying to accomplish is bringing awareness for a RB that some owners may not see the danger. RBs shelf life is short anyways, Brown is entering year 5...others posted that he is done in 2009, but I think his contract runs through 2010.

You would've said the same thing about DeAngelo Williams last year. Brown is a hold or a buy right now. It will be his 2nd year back from his knee injury, so he should be back to 100%. There's plenty of upside here at his current cost. IMO, none of the backs in this class have what it takes to unseat him right away. There's no reason to worry.

Why would he have said the same about DeAngelo? As far as I remember, there was no indication that Carolina was going to take a RB in the 1st round. That's also not to mention that DeAngelo was heading into this 3rd year and was only 24 yrs old. Brown is going to be turning 28 later this year and has a significant injury history and really has only a few exceptional games to hang his hat on. To me, I think of Willie Parker. His value was already down some heading into last year's draft and when they took Mendenhall, his value bottomed out. The very same thing could happen to Brown. It's not as if Ronnie's pricetag is very low at this point anyway. He's still going as a top 3-4 round pick in most startups and if Miami does indeed take a RB, his value will plummet even if he does keep the job. Reason being, by the time we're assured that the job is still Ronnie's, he will now be an almost 28 yo RB with limited shelf life. He's only 3 months younger than Portis and look what's happened to him despite outperforming Brown at virtually every point of his career.I don't see any way that Brown is a buy right now unless his price is ridiculously low which I simply haven't seen. Given the value I've seen from him in most places, he's most definitely a sell. He still has some salvageable value that could dissipate in just a few weeks. This is a great thread topic and the warning is definitely there. Even if you're wrong, the potential you're selling is very likely not much higher than the price you'd receive back. He just doesn't have the upside, IMO, that many people want him to have. That 5 game stretch in 2007 has done wonders for him...take advantage of it now before it's too late.

 

[Dr. Evil]

Shonne Greene looks good in the 2nd, but I wouldn't discount a RB in the 1st. Greene is a power runner with some speed and a good stiff-arm. Put him behind a stout line and he might look like a world beater.

 

[Birdie048]

I can see the line of thinking MOP has here... and with the solidification of the OL and the Def close to set, looking down the road at 2010, what do the Fins need? RB does not jump out at you.

As a Ronnie owner, I am intrigued by this thread.

I could see a LB or DL early to address short term issues (mostly youth/depth), but RB is a long term need. Late 1st Day pick for a RB would make sense pending what value Parcel's see on the board. Remember, Parcel's could have walked away with the new owership in Miami. He wants to stay. He has a "motivation" to improve this team.

Possible in the 3rd round: Peerman (5'10" 208 lb) as already suggested, but also Andre Brown from NC State as a bigger between the tackles RB (6' 225 lb). Does this mean they would want to join the RBBC religion and add a short yardage/GL RB to the running stykle of Ricky & Ronnie??

Good thread MOP!

 

[EBF]

Believe whatever you want to believe. As someone who owns Ronnie in one league, I'm not at all worried about the draft. He's better than Moreno/Wells and I don't see Brown/McCoy/Greene unseating him in year one. I think he'll be the main back for Miami next year and have a productive season if he stays healthy. Next offseason will be the time to sell, IMO. Not now.

 

[BigJim®]

11/25, 13/50, 13/27, 14/43, 20/59, 10/39, 10/37, 15/48, 8/32...not exactly stellar

IMHO these numbers are the direct result of having zero passing attack. That makes me worry about 2009 far more than some rookie coming in and stealing Ronnie Brown's role. What role? Facing 11 man fronts? Needing to be part of some gimicky wildcat formation to get anything at all in the run game? Yuck. Good luck with all that rook.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

They should have kept Parmele.

Agreed

 

[noneother]

Believe whatever you want to believe. As someone who owns Ronnie in one league, I'm not at all worried about the draft. He's better than Moreno/Wells and I don't see Brown/McCoy/Greene unseating him in year one. I think he'll be the main back for Miami next year and have a productive season if he stays healthy. Next offseason will be the time to sell, IMO. Not now.

I agree with this strategy, and have applied it to LT as well. 2009 should be a good time to turn these guys into the rooks and second year guys that are getting so much love now...

 

[PahtyTom]

They should have kept Parmele.

Seriously, he's a better prospect than almost anyone in this year's RB class.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

They should have kept Parmele.

Seriously, he's a better prospect than almost anyone in this year's RB class.

IIRC, they decided they couldn't carry too many RBs and cut him for Cobbs. Not sure that was a good long term move, but we'll see if he does anything in BAL.

 

[cstu]

I'm not a Ronnie fan, but I did trade for him in one league. I don't think there's a back in this class who can easily beat him out for the starting job, so I'm not worried about what happens in April.

EBF,1. You just traded for Ronnie Brown, of course you are going to post you are not worried about April.2. Another way to look at it is this, in Dynasty even if the RB that gets drafted does not "unseat" Ronnie, it still does not help his trade value, so what I am trying to accomplish is bringing awareness for a RB that some owners may not see the danger. RBs shelf life is short anyways, Brown is entering year 5...others posted that he is done in 2009, but I think his contract runs through 2010.

You would've said the same thing about DeAngelo Williams last year. Brown is a hold or a buy right now. It will be his 2nd year back from his knee injury, so he should be back to 100%. There's plenty of upside here at his current cost. IMO, none of the backs in this class have what it takes to unseat him right away. There's no reason to worry.

Why would he have said the same about DeAngelo? As far as I remember, there was no indication that Carolina was going to take a RB in the 1st round. That's also not to mention that DeAngelo was heading into this 3rd year and was only 24 yrs old. Brown is going to be turning 28 later this year and has a significant injury history and really has only a few exceptional games to hang his hat on. To me, I think of Willie Parker. His value was already down some heading into last year's draft and when they took Mendenhall, his value bottomed out. The very same thing could happen to Brown. It's not as if Ronnie's pricetag is very low at this point anyway. He's still going as a top 3-4 round pick in most startups and if Miami does indeed take a RB, his value will plummet even if he does keep the job. Reason being, by the time we're assured that the job is still Ronnie's, he will now be an almost 28 yo RB with limited shelf life. He's only 3 months younger than Portis and look what's happened to him despite outperforming Brown at virtually every point of his career.I don't see any way that Brown is a buy right now unless his price is ridiculously low which I simply haven't seen. Given the value I've seen from him in most places, he's most definitely a sell. He still has some salvageable value that could dissipate in just a few weeks. This is a great thread topic and the warning is definitely there. Even if you're wrong, the potential you're selling is very likely not much higher than the price you'd receive back. He just doesn't have the upside, IMO, that many people want him to have. That 5 game stretch in 2007 has done wonders for him...take advantage of it now before it's too late.

I was surprised in the dynasty thread how high he was ranked considering he is 28 and hasn't looked the same after the torn ACL. No question he was a beast in 2007 but people are still valuing him based on that and I don't see why.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Believe whatever you want to believe. As someone who owns Ronnie in one league, I'm not at all worried about the draft. He's better than Moreno/Wells and I don't see Brown/McCoy/Greene unseating him in year one. I think he'll be the main back for Miami next year and have a productive season if he stays healthy. Next offseason will be the time to sell, IMO. Not now.

You keep hammering the point that Ronnie will not be unseated...I'm not saying that Brown will not be the feature back...but the feature back in Miami might only be 240-275 carries. Ricky is old and I think they will want more pop, all signs point to them wanting to get better at running the football. Pennington was actually the entire offense for stretches last season which is why he looked so good to a lot of fans out there. None of these rookie RBs need to unseat Ronnie, but if someone is taken and slides right into the RB2 role on this team...let's say 160-200 carries/touches perhaps...it is not going to be easy to move Brown who I really think has a contract running out in 2010. Miami might even deal Brown which could be good, or could be bad, none of us can see that far into the future obviously. $150 million they have poured into their OL...with a nice email most owners should be able to get a very hefty price tag right now for Brown. I realize in Shark Pool leagues you might not pull this off, but in other dynasty leagues i would be pushing Brown out there and try to sell him. I swapped him for DWill a year or two ago and that has turned out so far so good. DWill is another oneof those backs that owners should be cashing in on.

 

[gianmarco]

Consensus rankings by FBG'ers here

#15 RB? Ahead of McFadden, Jacobs, K. Smith, and just behind Slaton?

Not sure how that is a buy. How much chance does he have to significantly outproduce that position? Now imagine that Miami does indeed draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd round. Whether or not you think that rookie RB will unseat him, it will absolutely kill his trade value.

No thanks. Give me those younger guys instead. At least their value won't plummet if their situation changes.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

I doubt Parcells takes a RB early in the draft - they have much more pressing needs and the 2009 the backfield is set. If anything Parcells wil take a project RB late in the draft.

The problem with this kind of thinking is that draft picks aren't always about immediate need. The best teams are always one step ahead, looking at how the roster projects 2-3 years down the line, not how the roster looks at the moment. Teams don't really expect contributions (at least other than special teams) in year one anyway, except for first day picks. Miami is in perfect position to pick off a first tier back in the late first, or a second tier back with one of their two seconds.

The thing is, running back is one of the positions that you can plug a rookie right into as a starter, so you really dont have to draft one 2-3 years before you are going to need one.The Fins are in dire need of help at CB (Eric Green? Really?) and WR (Not a single candidtate for WR1), and have far more pressing needs at OLB (Matt Roth is OK, but not great and Porter is probably not in the 3 year plan)) and NT (Ferguson is ancient and Solai is average) than they do at RB. That goes for now, and for the 2-3 year plan. With 3 picks on day 1, I would be shocked if they did not go some combination of CB/WR/OLB/NT. If Ronnie proves that he is not "the guy", then they can address that next year with a day one plug and play pick.

I must disclose that I am a Ronnie Brown fan and owner, so my opinions could be skewed, but as a Fins fan first and foremost, I dont see running back as a day one likelihood at all.

That said - MOP and Bloom are both infinitely more knowledgeable than I am, which worries me since at this point I am just hoping that they are way off on this.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

11/25, 13/50, 13/27, 14/43, 20/59, 10/39, 10/37, 15/48, 8/32...not exactly stellar

IMHO these numbers are the direct result of having zero passing attack. That makes me worry about 2009 far more than some rookie coming in and stealing Ronnie Brown's role. What role? Facing 11 man fronts? Needing to be part of some gimicky wildcat formation to get anything at all in the run game? Yuck. Good luck with all that rook.

BigJim, what are you talking about? Definitely Miami needs a better passing game but Pennington was uber effective at the short intermediate passing game with Fasano, Camarillo till he got hurt, then Devonne Bess...and miami also is pretty good getting it to the backs coming out of the backfield. $150 million they have poured into the OL...it is clear they are going to attack on the ground.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I doubt Parcells takes a RB early in the draft - they have much more pressing needs and the 2009 the backfield is set. If anything Parcells wil take a project RB late in the draft.

The problem with this kind of thinking is that draft picks aren't always about immediate need. The best teams are always one step ahead, looking at how the roster projects 2-3 years down the line, not how the roster looks at the moment. Teams don't really expect contributions (at least other than special teams) in year one anyway, except for first day picks. Miami is in perfect position to pick off a first tier back in the late first, or a second tier back with one of their two seconds.

The thing is, running back is one of the positions that you can plug a rookie right into as a starter, so you really dont have to draft one 2-3 years before you are going to need one.The Fins are in dire need of help at CB (Eric Green? Really?) and WR (Not a single candidtate for WR1), and have far more pressing needs at OLB (Matt Roth is OK, but not great and Porter is probably not in the 3 year plan)) and NT (Ferguson is ancient and Solai is average) than they do at RB. That goes for now, and for the 2-3 year plan. With 3 picks on day 1, I would be shocked if they did not go some combination of CB/WR/OLB/NT. If Ronnie proves that he is not "the guy", then they can address that next year with a day one plug and play pick.

I must disclose that I am a Ronnie Brown fan and owner, so my opinions could be skewed, but as a Fins fan first and foremost, I dont see running back as a day one likelihood at all.

That said - MOP and Bloom are both infinitely more knowledgeable than I am, which worries me since at this point I am just hoping that they are way off on this.

You have a very nice post, and I want to take some opposite views than you have, but this is not about right or wrong, just difference of opinion on a few things. CB/DB-the thing is they are set now at Safety with who they resigned and also signed as a FA. They have Will Allen and Jason Allen, both are better nicklebacks and they will take a DB, perhaps even 2 in the first 3 picks they have.

OLB-Porter and Roth are going to hold the fort down 1 more year I think. Roth was pretty solid, Porter had 15+ sacks IIRC but disappeared at the ned of the season.

Miami really needs some WR help but history has shown you do not often find what you need from a rookie WR. Anyone they take, you have to believe is 2-3 seasons away from much impact. Ginn is actually going into year 3 and he still has a ways to go...#9 selection in 2007 to boot.

I believe Miami will take the best player available that is either a DB, NT/DL, or an impact WR/RB that can add soemthing immediately in their minds. Also, don't put it past Miami to grab a veteran WR on draft day or later into the summer. I wish they would ask Green Bay what it would take to snare Donald Driver who is in the last year of his contract and still around 33 IIRC...that guy would be perfect.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Meanwhile they have a glaring weakness at WR yet would not pony up the money for any of the FA WRs...maybe none of them were worth the money but its a moot point. My last point is that even though Miami needs a WR, I don't think they will solve any problems with this in the draft. How many rookie WR selected in the late 1st or anywhere in the 2nd round come out like gangbuster as rookies?

Your arguments scream 'WR' but your conclusion is still 'RB'In the 1st sentence above, if you sub in 'RB' for 'WR', I think your conclusion would be addressing those needs in the draft by taking a RB. The point you make in the 2nd sentence is exactly the reason they need to draft WR in this draft. A RB can usually produce in year 1 while a WR can take a few years. They do not have a need for immediate production at RB. If they draft WRs now, they will hopefully be ready next year. If they draft a RB next year, they can be ready to produce year 1.ETA - I see someone made the same point above me.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Brown was coming off injury but some of his game logs include...11/25, 13/50, 13/27, 14/43, 20/59, 10/39, 10/37, 15/48, 8/32...not exactly stellar

Vastly overrated, imo.I am shocked to see the heaps of talent some owners trade away for RB.

 

[Sea Bass]

This has zero effect on his value in a redraft league.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Meanwhile they have a glaring weakness at WR yet would not pony up the money for any of the FA WRs...maybe none of them were worth the money but its a moot point. My last point is that even though Miami needs a WR, I don't think they will solve any problems with this in the draft. How many rookie WR selected in the late 1st or anywhere in the 2nd round come out like gangbuster as rookies?

Your arguments scream 'WR' but your conclusion is still 'RB'In the 1st sentence above, if you sub in 'RB' for 'WR', I think your conclusion would be addressing those needs in the draft by taking a RB. The point you make in the 2nd sentence is exactly the reason they need to draft WR in this draft. A RB can usually produce in year 1 while a WR can take a few years. They do not have a need for immediate production at RB. If they draft WRs now, they will hopefully be ready next year. If they draft a RB next year, they can be ready to produce year 1.ETA - I see someone made the same point above me.

Let me put it another way...with WR taking so long to develop it is much easier for teams to go out and sign veteran WR that perhaps are not world beaters but instead are productive move the chain types. Donald Driver is a guy that is not flashy but can always be looked at for production of around 70-80 catches, 1,000+ yds, 5-8 TDs...that type of consistent production would do wonders for Miami...but they are not going to find it in this year's draft plus they only fielded 3 WR in a playoff game last year...a PLAYOFF GAME!!! they were 3 games from the SB and they fielded 3 WR? Was that out of necessity(it was) or philosophy(partly)...I just think that the front office brass is pretty intelligent and will at some point break down and get a veteran WR to stabalize their passing game some. Bottom Line: I think they will try and improve the running game as much as they can. I could be totally wrong but I see miami grabbing a RB that they hope will have an immediate impact in the 1st 2-3 rounds.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This has zero effect on his value in a redraft league.

95% agree with you

 

[bcr8f]

1993-#1 Drew Bledsdoe QB1994-#4 Willie McGinest OLB1995-#23 Ty Law CB1996-#7 Terry Glenn WR1997-#8 James Farrior OLB2003-#5 Terrance Newman CB2005-#11 DeMarcus Ware OLB2005-#20 Marcus Spears DE2006-#18 Bobby Carpenter LB2008-#1 Jake Long TI have a hard time believing Parcells will take a RB in the 1st round. The second round (like Bloom said) seems more likely.

He likes the big uglies because they last 10 years versus 5 or 6 for RB's. I expect something on the defensive line.

 

[az_prof]

MOP,I don't have a horse in this race, but I am not sure what you are getting at. You mention that the 2009 RB draft class is thin, yet you say RB/RW owners should be nervous. Knowshon will not fall to them, not sure Beanie makes any sense (Ricky and Ronnie can run through tackles), which leaves us with Donald Brown. Unless Miami decides to take him (and he should be there), I think the rest of the bunch would have a hard time unseating Mr. Ronnie Brown. My guess is they punt this year and wait to see how RW holds up in '09.

Unless they draft a HB in the first round, I don't see any backs in this class who can compete with Brown and I don't think any of those guys are better either but I can see how you could make an argument. All backs are eventually replaced but I just don't see that happening to Brown soon unless he has another injury. I also don't see HB as an area that MIA would prioritize in the draft. I see them taking someone in the third or fourth for depth, but not to replace Brown or Ricky this year and not someone who is capable of being a featured back in the future.

 

[TaxMan]

Ronnie Brown is an elite RB talent, 2 years off of an ACL injury, and recent dynasty startups, you can draft him in the late 4th, early 5th. That screams value to me. Looking for a banner year from Ronnie in 2009 actually.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Brown moving the pile at 4-5 yds a clip is great but they also need some raw speed to explode out of the backfield.

This is where you've lost me. Brown has elite speed.Honestly, I think Brown is far and away the best player on the Dolphin's team. Watching him run is a bit of a treat, especially those years when the Fins' line was atrocious and there would be 3 guys in the backfield as soon as he got the ball and he'd somehow still gain 3 yards. A fun little game we play around here is to try and predict how long a run of Brown's will be as soon as he gets the ball, based on what we see of the blocking. He almost always gets several yards more than you predict through some combination of burst, power, and magic.That said, Brown will actually be turning 28 during this season and as such, his contract will run out just prior to the season in which he turns 29. I think teams have learned their lesson about signing 29 year old RBs to long-term deals after the Edge/Alexander debacles, and for that reason I think that the end of this contract will be the end of Brown's career in Miami, so it's not too crazy to think they'll grab a RB in round 2 this year or next.

 

[inzanitee]

Ronnie Brown is an elite RB talent, 2 years off of an ACL injury, and recent dynasty startups, you can draft him in the late 4th, early 5th. That screams value to me. Looking for a banner year from Ronnie in 2009 actually.

I like him too. Think he'll be good for 1300 yds and double digit TDs.

 

[two_dollars]

Ronnie Brown is a stud. They would be stupid to try to replace him. I will be targetting him this year in every draft.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brown was coming off injury but some of his game logs include...11/25, 13/50, 13/27, 14/43, 20/59, 10/39, 10/37, 15/48, 8/32...not exactly stellar

I hear what you are saying overall and this thread does have some merit, but this part is pretty much cherry picking stats. We could do this for a number of a RBs and seemingly come to the same conclusion. In 2007, here's some similar individual game logs of another RB: 20/66, 20/70, 11/45, 14/3, 20/78, 9/27, 11/36. Not exactly stellar either. Of course, the RB in question is Adrian Peterson.The real issue IMO is that Brown has not turned into the second coming of Larry Johnson workload wise. Brown has had 20 carries 12 times in 51 games. In many ways, he's starting to look like the Florida version of Lawrence Maroney . . . at least the 2008 version was. Comparing Brown's 2008 numbers to Maroney's career numbers:Brown 13.4 carries, 57.3 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 65.0 yfs, 0.63 TD/gmMaroney 12.9 carries, 55.8 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 66.1 yfs, 0.43 TD/gmBrown up until now hasn't lived up to his #2 overall draft spot. At this point there is no evidence to support his role changing a that much for the Dolphins, and that alone is reason for concern for Brown owners.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I read what Prisco wrote a few days ago about the upcoming draft and such...but I want to take a look at what Miami has done over the past 12-14 months and why I think Brown and Williams may be running out of time with Miami...or at the least where Ronnie Brown owners might want to take some notice. Parcells has completely revamped the OL in Miami including LT-Jake Long($57.5 Million), RT-Vernon Carey($42 Million), C-Jake Grove($30 Million), LG-Smiley($25 Million)...that is $150 Million they have spent just on the OL. Meanwhile they have a glaring weakness at WR yet would not pony up the money for any of the FA WRs...maybe none of them were worth the money but its a moot point. I believe Miami is 100% committed to running the ball. They are not just interested in making the playoffs but actually going far. And to be able to do that with confidence you need to be able to run the ball in December and January on the road in cold weather. Right now Miami is building an OL to do exactly that. They are not trying to recreate the Colts, Broncos, or Saints offense...in fact they are doing a 180 from that. The passing game for Miami is built on short passes to the TEs and RBs plus 5-15 yard routes by the WRs with an occasional look down the field. They are trying to replicate some of what the Steelers, Titans, and Ravens do. Who cares you ask?Well, if they are going to be a power type running team then I think it is fair to say they want one of the strongest running games in the league, and to do that they will need at least 1 horse in the backfield if not 2-3. Ronnie Brown has been at times amazing and other times very pedestrian. The Dolphins IMO are not set with Brown and Williams. I think Ricky could be moved to an RB3 on the depth charts if Miami can get who they want in the draft. My problem with this being the RB class for 2009 is pretty thin. Brown is signed thru 2010 I doubt that Miami will want to extend his contract. I feel that on top of just pure size that they need some speed in that backfield, someone that can make defenses pay for not being able to stop the run. Brown moving the pile at 4-5 yds a clip is great but they also need some raw speed to explode out of the backfield. Grove helped the Raiders the past couple of seasons to be one of the better running teams in the league, now he has a supporting cast including a couple of book end Tackles with which to operate on his left and right, this could make Miami a very potent running team as long as Penny can continue to keep the defenses honest. My last point is that even though Miami needs a WR, I don't think they will solve any problems with this in the draft. How many rookie WR selected in the late 1st or anywhere in the 2nd round come out like gangbuster as rookies? Miami doesn't really expect this nor are they resting their season on it, but the idea Miami grabs a WR in the 2nd and is good to go seems like a fairy tale to me. But they can likely grab another RB that will add some dynamics to their backfield and make them a little more explosive. Don't cry Ronnie Brown owners if Miami selects a RB in the 1st couple of rounds. They are not going to take an OL, they are pretty solid at LB, even DB has been shored up, DEL probably needs another plug at DT but the 2 DEs they selected last year and Starks who they brought over from TN seems like what they are going to roll with. QB-no way...they have literasly gone form cellar dwellers to not being forced to actually take 1 position in less than a year. I'm not saying they have a Super bowl team by any strecth but they are nto awful anywhere other than WR.

Ronnie Brown is a very gifted running back and they are set with him. Ricky is an OK backup, but they have many other areas of need before addressing RB. Bill will pick a player (Rb) if his value is there, but he RB is not his first choice. The defense needs work as do the receivers.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

The real issue IMO is that Brown has not turned into the second coming of Larry Johnson workload wise. Brown has had 20 carries 12 times in 51 games. In many ways, he's starting to look like the Florida version of Lawrence Maroney . . . at least the 2008 version was. Comparing Brown's 2008 numbers to Maroney's career numbers:Brown 13.4 carries, 57.3 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 65.0 yfs, 0.63 TD/gmMaroney 12.9 carries, 55.8 rushing yards, 4.3 ypc, 66.1 yfs, 0.43 TD/gmBrown up until now hasn't lived up to his #2 overall draft spot. At this point there is no evidence to support his role changing a that much for the Dolphins, and that alone is reason for concern for Brown owners.

I actually had the same issue with Brown (workload). That is, until reading this thread. This,

Parcells has completely revamped the OL in Miami including LT-Jake Long($57.5 Million), RT-Vernon Carey($42 Million), C-Jake Grove($30 Million), LG-Smiley($25 Million)...that is $150 Million they have spent just on the OL.

makes me believe they are going to try to run the ball so much that Brown can get a full workload even in a RBBC, kind of like they did in Carolina, Tennessee, or Baltimore (w/o the 3rd RB).While he hasn't been the 2nd coming of 2006 Larry Johnson, if you look at 2006-2007, he averaged 22.6 touches per game. That was more than all but 6 RB's this past year. It's pretty easy to write off last year to his recovery from his ACL injury. The only scary part (for RB owners) is that his workload didn't increase as the year went on. But, if he returns to his pre-injury workload, I think all owners will be happy with that 23 touch/game workload.

 

[Gopher State]

Good topic by mop

If the FINS are thinking RB, whats to stop them from making a trade for maybe a guy like Bush from Oakland or someother RB

Several people have posted here that no Rookie in the 09 class can beat out Brown, but I think their are several RB's that can be had in trade that can give Brown a run for the money, and they can be had on the cheap, 4 or 5th round pick

Brown owners have been warned

 

[Liquid Tension]

I gave Miami Cedric Peerman in the 2nd round for a lot of the reasons you describe. I'll be surprised if they don't add a third RB (not counting Cobbs) who will a big part of the RBBC in 2010.

Sig, I respect your opinion but I would be very surprised. I think it would take one of the better backs to fall into the latter 2nd round for Bill to take someone with his 2nd rounder.People don't understand how Pennington impacts the running attack as safeties play close. Ronnie is a very good running back.

 

[Liquid Tension]

MOP,I don't have a horse in this race, but I am not sure what you are getting at. You mention that the 2009 RB draft class is thin, yet you say RB/RW owners should be nervous. Knowshon will not fall to them, not sure Beanie makes any sense (Ricky and Ronnie can run through tackles), which leaves us with Donald Brown. Unless Miami decides to take him (and he should be there), I think the rest of the bunch would have a hard time unseating Mr. Ronnie Brown. My guess is they punt this year and wait to see how RW holds up in '09.

MOP seems to be saying that Ronnie Brown is not getting the job done to the Dolphins' satisfaction. Brown's contract is up at the end of 2009, so we'll see what happens. If the Dolphins take a day one RB, is that the future RB? Is 2009 Brown's tryout for his Dolphin future?

the contract issue is one I was not factoring in. But I still think Parcells only takes a RB if the guy he likes is a steal at their pick