he gets stronger as the game goes on....
...until he hits 20 carries. Then he breaks down.
Are you really comfortable making that statement based on 8 carries?
Owned.
I think the fact that he HAD only 8 carries in the 20+ column speaks a lot.Are you really comfortable in picking a guy to be your potentially No.1 back who only has 8 carries after 20 in all of his games for his entire season? On a guy who has not only still to prove that he can carry a feature back load by himself, but has now added the question whether he can run effectively splitting time?
To further support my "breaking down" ideal, here is a pretty Miami Dolphin-colored Line Graph that I drew:
http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/i...82440BBBDB13D92
Obviously you can see a bit of a spike in production
. Seriously though, notice how it steadily increases (getting stronger, gaining momentum), then starts to decrease as he breaks down.
Do you want a guy who breaks down in the clutch? When you're at the edge of your couch, constantlychecking your laptop's realtime fantasy scores, shouting at your HDTV and watching as you're trailing by 5, and Ronnie Brown, your last producing player left, suddenly stopped producing?
Or when you're in the playoffs? Do you think 40 attempts for 118 yards and no touchdowns in the last 5 weeks of the season, including MISSING the FANTASY SUPER BOWL, is No.1 back worthy?
The latter part of Ronnie Brown’s 2002 campaign is supposed to be reason to believe that he is going to be a great running back if given the chance to shoulder the full load. When Cadillac went down with a broken leg, over the last six games he played, Brown averaged 120 rushing yards per game. But a closer look reveals a real story: After 5 games, he broke down, and joined his buddy Cadillac on the sidelines with a leg injury for the last regular season game that took him about a month to recover from to play in the last game of the season.
And that's all I've got my money on for him next year: 5 games.
Any more than that will require divine intervention. And you know what, I'll probably be a gambler that drafts him in the 2nd round one spot ahead of you, and then I'm going to trade him to you about 3 weeks into the season and then laugh at you for the rest.