Finatic
Footballguy
Not if the Bucs bring back AlstottWilliams didn't break down, his foot landed awkwardly and he had his hamstring almost torn off. I think the fact that he mostly played through it (albeit VERY limited effectiveness) speaks volumes. This guy is averages at least 100 yards a game when he's healthy.And I think he's definitely a 25-30 touch back. Next year Gruden is going to get him heavily involved in the receiving game.Well excuss me if I'm wrong but didn't Caddy break down this year after getting overloaded. After 3 games of heavy work (27,24,37 carries) he broke down and could only get the ball 11 times in the next game for a 1.2 avg. Also in that 3 game stretch his yards per carry went down in every game from 5.5 to 5.3 to 4.3 to eventually 1.2. He also had to miss the next 2 weeks. Then when he returned here are his yards per carry (1.5, 2.6, 2.0) I'm just not seeing a durable back here sorry. Now they could both improve on these #'s but Ronnie was much more effective last year when getting over 15 carries. At six foot and 232 lbs. he is more built for that kind of abuse compared to the 5-10 Williams who only ways 217. Ronnie will be the much more durable back in my mind until Gruden realizes that Williams isn't a 25 carry kind of guy and he starts using him in a split backfield. I'm not taking anything away from Williams, I think he is very talented I just ? his durability.I think the fact that he HAD only 8 carries in the 20+ column speaks a lot.Are you really comfortable in picking a guy to be your potentially No.1 back who only has 8 carries after 20 in all of his games for his entire season? On a guy who has not only still to prove that he can carry a feature back load by himself, but has now added the question whether he can run effectively splitting time?Owned.Are you really comfortable making that statement based on 8 carries?he gets stronger as the game goes on....
...until he hits 20 carries. Then he breaks down.![]()
To further support my "breaking down" ideal, here is a pretty Miami Dolphin-colored Line Graph that I drew:
http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/i...82440BBBDB13D92
Obviously you can see a bit of a spike in production. Seriously though, notice how it steadily increases (getting stronger, gaining momentum), then starts to decrease as he breaks down.
Do you want a guy who breaks down in the clutch? When you're at the edge of your couch, constantlychecking your laptop's realtime fantasy scores, shouting at your HDTV and watching as you're trailing by 5, and Ronnie Brown, your last producing player left, suddenly stopped producing?
Or when you're in the playoffs? Do you think 40 attempts for 118 yards and no touchdowns in the last 5 weeks of the season, including MISSING the FANTASY SUPER BOWL, is No.1 back worthy?
The latter part of Ronnie Brown’s 2002 campaign is supposed to be reason to believe that he is going to be a great running back if given the chance to shoulder the full load. When Cadillac went down with a broken leg, over the last six games he played, Brown averaged 120 rushing yards per game. But a closer look reveals a real story: After 5 games, he broke down, and joined his buddy Cadillac on the sidelines with a leg injury for the last regular season game that took him about a month to recover from to play in the last game of the season.
And that's all I've got my money on for him next year: 5 games.
Any more than that will require divine intervention. And you know what, I'll probably be a gambler that drafts him in the 2nd round one spot ahead of you, and then I'm going to trade him to you about 3 weeks into the season and then laugh at you for the rest.
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As for Ronnie Brown, I definitely agree that he's more built for abuse, but at the same time, the point is that he's soft. He's shown me that he hits very hard, but when he takes the other side of that hit he delivers, it wears on him just as much.
The knock on Cadillac was his weight at 205 coming out of college, as that's a little small for feature back weight... but at 217, he's the perfect combination of strength, size, elusiveness and speed to be a workhorse back.
The carries didn't bother Cadillac at all last season. Unlike Brown, he would continue to get stronger. Not get stronger persay, but he did not wear down near as fast as the defenses he faced. He simply delivers a systematic beating.
Still, take who you want, but Cadillac will be a much bigger fantasy producer next year and all of the successive years while either are in the NFL until Brown can toughen up.
It seems to me that a RB who plays through an injury to average 2 yards a carry for about a 6 game stretch is much more impressive than a RB who averages 2.5 yards a carry when healthy for half of his games.
