Ronnie Brown (1 Viewer)

[On The Rocks]

With Culpeppers injury I don't think he is much of a threat to steal GL carries but is there anyon else on the Dolphins to be worried about vulturing touches?

It seems that Brown is big enough to carry the load....did he have an injury history in college?

 

[MLBrandow]

I don't believe there will be any problem giving him the ball on the goal-line.

The problem will come when they try to give him the ball 25 times a game.

To answer your question more fully, his sophomore year at Auburn, when Cadillac got injured, he exploded for a five game stretch, which is chiefly why everyone was so gahgah over him (plus his combine). Problem was, he got injured after that short stretch.

If the Dolphins can find him a compliment, he'll be a solid RB2 value, and Saban knows this. The problem here is that there's no one good enough to split time with Brown IMO unless Harris steps up, and while he's fully built to deal a hell of a pounding to defenses, he's equally unequipped to deal with the hits as a starting back.

He'll be a goal-line monster for sure, but I'm more worried about him holding up over even half a season of being a load-carrying back, much less a formidable 16-game schedule.

He's one of the guys on my "do not touch with a 40-foot fantasy pole" in redrafts this year, because I don't trust him to carry the load, and I doubt Saban does either.

 

[Patoons]

He's one of the guys on my "do not touch with a 40-foot fantasy pole" in redrafts this year, because I don't trust him to carry the load, and I doubt Saban does either.

Why would they draft him #2 overall if they didn't think he could handle a 16 game span? Seems they could have drafted a guy who would bring more impact to the team with that pick then bringing in an RBBC back, no?Also, that was his senior year in college. He's gone through a different conditioning program and probably has put more bulk on. Aside from that one injury you are referring to, I don't recall there being a history there.

It's not that I do not understand your concern, because I think many have it, I just don't know that you can worry that he won't hold up when it's occured at one point in his college career.

 

[perry147]

He's one of the guys on my "do not touch with a 40-foot fantasy pole" in redrafts this year, because I don't trust him to carry the load, and I doubt Saban does either.

Why would they draft him #2 overall if they didn't think he could handle a 16 game span? Seems they could have drafted a guy who would bring more impact to the team with that pick then bringing in an RBBC back, no?Also, that was his senior year in college. He's gone through a different conditioning program and probably has put more bulk on. Aside from that one injury you are referring to, I don't recall there being a history there.

It's not that I do not understand your concern, because I think many have it, I just don't know that you can worry that he won't hold up when it's occured at one point in his college career.

I see him as undervalued this year after viewing some of the mock drafts.

I have him on the lower end of the 2nd tier in my rankings.

 

[MLBrandow]

He's one of the guys on my "do not touch with a 40-foot fantasy pole" in redrafts this year, because I don't trust him to carry the load, and I doubt Saban does either.

Why would they draft him #2 overall if they didn't think he could handle a 16 game span? Seems they could have drafted a guy who would bring more impact to the team with that pick then bringing in an RBBC back, no?Also, that was his senior year in college. He's gone through a different conditioning program and probably has put more bulk on. Aside from that one injury you are referring to, I don't recall there being a history there.

It's not that I do not understand your concern, because I think many have it, I just don't know that you can worry that he won't hold up when it's occured at one point in his college career.

The same reason the Saints took Bush #2 this year. He's a playmaker. Bush is never going to carry the load himself either, but that doesn't mean he (and Brown) aren't worth their draft (NFL) spot.And it's not just that one point, it's last year. Hold on and I'll go dig up some stats from an old RB thread.

Okay here ya go:

monster season for ronnie brown in miami next season

this guy is a sure fire first round pick in every fantasy draft held and he proves why he was the #2 overall pick in last years draft

ronnie brown = 2006 player

You're a fool. He's going to break down after 6 weeks.

maybe, but...rushing splits G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

1ST HALF 0 112 381 3.4 22 2 20

2ND HALF 0 95 526 5.5 65 2 21

rushing splits G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 144 594 4.1 65 4 29

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 55 284 5.2 58 0 10

rushing splits G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

1ST QUARTER 0 61 194 3.2 14 1 9

2ND QUARTER 0 51 187 3.7 22 1 11

3RD QUARTER 0 47 281 6.0 65 1 12

4TH QUARTER 0 48 245 5.1 58 1 9

4TH (WITHIN 7) 0 32 182 5.7 58 1 7

receiving splits G Rec Yds Avg TD

SEPTEMBER GAMES 3 5 24 4.8 0

OCTOBER GAMES 4 12 90 7.5 0

NOVEMBER GAMES 4 9 64 7.1 0

DECEMBER GAMES 3 4 41 10.3 1

receiving splits G Rec Yds Avg TD

1ST QUARTER 0 10 51 5.1 0

2ND QUARTER 0 3 14 4.7 0

3RD QUARTER 0 4 23 5.8 0

4TH QUARTER 0 15 144 9.6 1

of course it's a small sample size from his rookie year, but i'd say he gets stronger as the game and the year goes on based on the stats

This looks pretty solid right? Take a good look. All of those numbers are correct.Now, take a second look. See any relevant stat missing?

Rushing splits broken by month.

The reason this is missing is pretty obvious when you see:

(3G)SEPT - 3.9 YPC, 20.7 avg. touches (att+rec)

(3G)OCT - 5.6, 17.3

(3G)NOV - 4.6, 15.5

(3G)DEC - 3.03, 12 (missed week 16)

(1G)JAN - 2.6, 11

What happened there? Stronger as the season goes on? Looks like he broke down to me.

But I thought the Dolphins won their last 6 games of the season? Yeah.

His touches only went down because Ricky came back, right? Well, if that were the case, wouldn't his YPC go up, since that is the logic of RBBC? He wore out as Ricky got back to form.

Here are the best stat-lines I can give you:

In 7 losses, Ronnie Brown averaged 5.2 YPC with 2 TDs

In 9 wins, Ronnie Brown averaged 3.8 YPC with 2 TDs and 1 missed game.

In 7 losses, Ronnie Brown averaged 80 YPG and amassed 560 total yards.

In 9 wins, Ronnie Brown averaged 64.3 YPG and amassed 579 total yards.

5.6 Fantasy Points in the Playoff week (15)

0 Fantasy Points in the Super Bowl week (16)

Miami's success last year was an almost perfect inverse correlation to Brown's success.

This is the guy that is you're investing your first round pick in? or 2nd?

Without straying further from your question, you don't have to worry about him losing goal-line carries. You do need to worry about him losing field time.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

If the Dolphins can find him a compliment

He's nice.

 

[Gandalf]

Isn't the reason why Brown hasn't started a lot of games really because he split time with Cadillac? I'm not aware of any issue that suggests he can't hold up for 16 games, so if you find that old thread please post it. This may make the difference between me holding onto Brown this year and trading him for a boatload of stuff. I could get almost anything for him now in my dynasty league.

 

[MLBrandow]

Isn't the reason why Brown hasn't started a lot of games really because he split time with Cadillac? I'm not aware of any issue that suggests he can't hold up for 16 games, so if you find that old thread please post it. This may make the difference between me holding onto Brown this year and trading him for a boatload of stuff. I could get almost anything for him now in my dynasty league.

See above You don't have to agree with me, but when you look at stats you have to understand the reasons behind them.

Statistically, GB had the #1 pass defense in the NFL. Think that means they were the best pass defense in the NFL? Or they couldn't stop the run with 11 guys in the box, so teams didn't bother with the pass.

Sharks would sell high before he implodes.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Isn't the reason why Brown hasn't started a lot of games really because he split time with Cadillac? I'm not aware of any issue that suggests he can't hold up for 16 games, so if you find that old thread please post it. This may make the difference between me holding onto Brown this year and trading him for a boatload of stuff. I could get almost anything for him now in my dynasty league.

See above You don't have to agree with me, but when you look at stats you have to understand the reasons behind them.

Statistically, GB had the #1 pass defense in the NFL. Think that means they were the best pass defense in the NFL? Or they couldn't stop the run with 11 guys in the box, so teams didn't bother with the pass.

Sharks would sell high before he implodes.

The bottom line is that everyone is at injury risk. He proved that he could be productive as a runner and receiver in his rookie year. Tomlinson has been dinged up at certain points in the season the last two years, and nobody is shying away from him. I think Ron Brown's talent is top ten, and I don't think many will argue with that. He has an opportunity to do special things this year. I do not see him "imploding".

 

[Gandalf]

Isn't the reason why Brown hasn't started a lot of games really because he split time with Cadillac?  I'm not aware of any issue that suggests he can't hold up for 16 games, so if you find that old thread please post it.  This may make the difference between me holding onto Brown this year and trading him for a boatload of stuff.  I could get almost anything for him now in my dynasty league.

See above You don't have to agree with me, but when you look at stats you have to understand the reasons behind them.

Statistically, GB had the #1 pass defense in the NFL. Think that means they were the best pass defense in the NFL? Or they couldn't stop the run with 11 guys in the box, so teams didn't bother with the pass.

Sharks would sell high before he implodes.

I'm more than willing to talk this one out because I want to understand it. Are you basing this only on Brown's rookie season or going back to his college days too? From the data above, it looks like it's only the rookie year, and don't most rookie RBs experience a second half tail off because the NFL has more games and is more intense? Did he also break down in college? I'll try to find some stats on this but if anyone knows, post away. I think you're hitting on an the most important question regarding Ronnie Brown heading into this season because beyond his durability, I see little to be concerned about. And there's still time to sell very high, if it's an issue.

 

[MLBrandow]

Yes, if you take a look at his college numbers when he started (with Caddy out) you will see the same thing.

One is coincidence (I guess), two is a trend.

Everyone in the league is talented, but don't hold gut feelings above not only overwhelming statistical evidence, but also just from watching him last year. Ricky looked far and away the better back.

Najeh Davenport is a prime example. He's a beast with great talent that just can't carry a load. Stuff happens, C'est la vie. You wouldn't draft him with your first pick.

Sure it's difficult to accept, but what exactly has he done this offseason to prove to you that he's even over this?

And he only had like four games as a feature back last year before Ricky came back, and he broke down like he did. Do you really see him holding up for an entire season on his own?

That is not the type of risk you want in your RB1... more like RB3/4

If I were you though, I'd trade Brown for a WR1 and solid RB3 prospect.... something like a Donald Driver / Maurice Drew would sell me. And the way you are speaking of your league, I'm sure you can get more

If you're going to pull the trigger on a deal though, wait until right before the season, when the Dolphin hype with Culpepper and Chambers and Brown is at its peak. As soon as it's certain that Culpepper will be in full health and starting week 1, I'd pull the trigger.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Yes, if you take a look at his college numbers when he started (with Caddy out) you will see the same thing.

One is coincidence (I guess), two is a trend.

Everyone in the league is talented, but don't hold gut feelings above not only overwhelming statistical evidence, but also just from watching him last year. Ricky looked far and away the better back.

Najeh Davenport is a prime example. He's a beast with great talent that just can't carry a load. Stuff happens, C'est la vie. You wouldn't draft him with your first pick.

Sure it's difficult to accept, but what exactly has he done this offseason to prove to you that he's even over this?

And he only had like four games as a feature back last year before Ricky came back, and he broke down like he did. Do you really see him holding up for an entire season on his own?

That is not the type of risk you want in your RB1... more like RB3/4

If I were you though, I'd trade Brown for a WR1 and solid RB3 prospect.... something like a Donald Driver / Maurice Drew would sell me. And the way you are speaking of your league, I'm sure you can get more

If you're going to pull the trigger on a deal though, wait until right before the season, when the Dolphin hype with Culpepper and Chambers and Brown is at its peak. As soon as it's certain that Culpepper will be in full health and starting week 1, I'd pull the trigger.

Say whatever you want, but as long as he stays reasonably healthy he is a lock for a top 10 RB. He is an all around back and won't be taken out unless he is tired or injured. The Dolphin OL will be a lot better next year and just the threat of Culpy will keep defenses honest.

 

[ChampBailey24]

What happened there? Stronger as the season goes on? Looks like he broke down to me.

Or maybe Ricky Williams saw more action and Brown's low YPC is because he got less carries and he couldn't find his rythm? Maybe...just maybe.

 

[Patoons]

Interesting stuff here Brandow, appreciate the work...

His touches only went down because Ricky came back, right? Well, if that were the case, wouldn't his YPC go up, since that is the logic of RBBC? He wore out as Ricky got back to form.

I don't know if I necessarily agree. From the stats you've shown, since Brown gets stronger as the game goes on, he wasn't able to get in a rhythm with Ricky there. Still interesting. I'd also think that a year in the league and another offseason would condition him a little better if these stats are actually indicative of him breaking down.

Here are the best stat-lines I can give you:

In 7 losses, Ronnie Brown averaged 5.2 YPC with 2 TDs

In 9 wins, Ronnie Brown averaged 3.8 YPC with 2 TDs and 1 missed game.

In 7 losses, Ronnie Brown averaged 80 YPG and amassed 560 total yards.

In 9 wins, Ronnie Brown averaged 64.3 YPG and amassed 579 total yards.

5.6 Fantasy Points in the Playoff week (15)

0 Fantasy Points in the Super Bowl week (16)

Tough to use these stats as again they'd probably be skewed with Ricky getting planning time in some as compared to others. Interesting stats, but I think it's harder to use these since the variable factor is Ricky's touches.Again, I love when these stats are brought into play, gives a nice perspective. I just respectfully disagree based on the Ricky factor.

 

[Hammerage]

Rushing

NAME G RUSHES YARDS YDS/RUSH YDS/G TD

1. Carnell Williams 13 239 1165 4.9 89.6 12

2. Ronnie Brown 12 153 913 6.0 76.1 8

Receiving G REC YARDS YDS/REC YDS/G TD

4. Ronnie Brown 12 34 313 9.2 26.1 1

8. Carnell Williams 13 21 152 7.2 11.7 1

Above are the stats comparing Brown to Williams for 2004 College season. This isn't an entire carreer but giving there final year college stats and what I saw last season I see no reason to see why Brown would not be at least as good of a pick as Carnell this year and potentially better. I think he has a ton of potential as a Tommy type of rec. back. I saw both of them struggle as rookies last year with not hitting holes well and reading blocks. I expect both to be much improved and consider both worthy of a 1st round pick given that they will be the primary rusher on their teams with no hint of RBBC.

Just my .02.

 

[MLBrandow]

Say whatever you want, but as long as he stays reasonably healthy he is a lock for a top 10 RB.  He is an all around back and won't be taken out unless he is tired or injured.  The Dolphin OL will be a lot better next year and just the threat of Culpy will keep defenses honest.

Don't you see, though? The whole point is that he can't shoulder the load for more than a few games. That's what this whole thing is about..

Tough to use these stats as again they'd probably be skewed with Ricky getting planning time in some as compared to others. Interesting stats, but I think it's harder to use these since the variable factor is Ricky's touches.

Again, I love when these stats are brought into play, gives a nice perspective. I just respectfully disagree based on the Ricky factor.

Yeah, I completely agree. So take these stats, and look at their meaning.Why are they skewed? Ricky Williams came back.

Why did Ricky start over Brown? He was better? Brown was banged up? Probably both.

Why was Brown banged up? Well, he only started four games by himself, and only had 7 before Ricky got his groove back... and he looked great for those first few games, but looked noticably beaten up soon after.

Arguing that he couldn't find his rhythm is certainly valid. The same thing happened to Jamal Lewis. Some backs just function better solo. Some like Barlow are just the opposite.

But a simple look at game film answers that.

I am sure Saban will find a way to utilize Brown to the best of his ability. What I'd personally like to see is brown drop about 10-20lbs and be a 210lb version of Warrick Dunn with KayJay Harris as his Duckett. But it will be at least a year or two before this happens, and remember that Ricky comes back next year, so at the least...

you're looking at a) a frustrating year this year, and b) the return of Ricky next year.

I don't see dynasty value here. Not for a while. To me, this is the time when you sell a guy while he's at peak worth, at a time when guys are so high on him that they completely ignore any argument you make.

Maybe in a few years you trade back for him, and get him for much less and take your chances, but such is what the game of fantasy football is all about.

 

[Synthesizer]

This looks pretty solid right? Take a good look. All of those numbers are correct.

Now, take a second look. See any relevant stat missing?

Rushing splits broken by month.

The reason this is missing is pretty obvious when you see:

(3G)SEPT - 3.9 YPC, 20.7 avg. touches (att+rec)

(3G)OCT - 5.6, 17.3

(3G)NOV - 4.6, 15.5

(3G)DEC - 3.03, 12 (missed week 16)

(1G)JAN - 2.6, 11

What happened there? Stronger as the season goes on? Looks like he broke down to me.

You call that "breaking down"? For the month of January, he had 8 carries. Not a lot of useful data there. And the 3 games in December he had 32 carries total. Again, not a big sample. I would say that his first 170 carries (Sept, Oct, Nov) would be a better indicator of what's in store for this year.

 

[MLBrandow]

You call that "breaking down"? For the month of January, he had 8 carries. Not a lot of useful data there. And the 3 games in December he had 32 carries total. Again, not a big sample. I would say that his first 170 carries (Sept, Oct, Nov) would be a better indicator of what's in store for this year.

I give up.

 

[Blackjacks]

I've tried to stay out of this conversation but I just can't anymore. MLBrandow and myself have had plenty of arguements over Caddy and Brown in the last couple months. I've looked at you "proof" that you've listed about why you don't think Brown will be able to carry the load. You showed his decrease in #'s when Ricky came back. I watched alot of the games last year (being a Brown dynasty owner) and I saw Ricky in the game alot in the second half. I would think that most defense would be alittle worn down at that time where a running back can usually get alittle more yardage. Also I'm just sick of you saying Brown has a track record of getting hurt yet in college it was Caddy who missed more time. Brown looked like he wore down last year yet Caddy was the one injured throughout half the middle of the season. The advantages with Brown is he is going to be an all purpose back. What I mean by that is he'll get recieving (insert Pittman) he'll get TD's ( insert Alstott). In past arguements thae statement has been said Caddy's was just a "fluke accident"....thanks Doc. I think all RB owners can feel very confident in him this year to be a top 10 rb, I hope Caddy owners can say that at the end of the year.

 

[Gandalf]

What I'd personally like to see is brown drop about 10-20lbs and be a 210lb version of Warrick Dunn with KayJay Harris as his Duckett

Um, what? Warrick Dunn is 5'9" and 190 lbs soaking wet with a different running style. And who the heck is KayJay Harris??? Ronnie Brown--a 5'11 235 lbs running back--morphing into Warrick Dunn is about as likely as Rosie O'Donnell turning into Marissa Miller. Why would you like to see that? I mean, the Ronnie Brown to Warrick Dunn part of course. I'm afraid I don't get where you're going with this comment.

 

[cscmtp]

I appeciate this thread. I have the 1.5 pick in a new 12 team $250 dynasty league. I am assuming Portis is gone at 1.4, so i'm having to decide between Brown, Caddy, and Jackson. I'm NOT having an easy time making a decision...

 

[Gandalf]

I appeciate this thread. I have the 1.5 pick in a new 12 team $250 dynasty league. I am assuming Portis is gone at 1.4, so i'm having to decide between Brown, Caddy, and Jackson. I'm NOT having an easy time making a decision...

Me too. Except for the comment above which has me confused.Your choice is tough. In a dynasty league, I think I'd honestly be happy with any of them. This makes me think that maybe you should entertain offers to trade down three spots. Maybe someone will offer you a decent draft pick for that? Just throwing out ideas.

 

[Blackjacks]

I appeciate this thread. I have the 1.5 pick in a new 12 team $250 dynasty league. I am assuming Portis is gone at 1.4, so i'm having to decide between Brown, Caddy, and Jackson. I'm NOT having an easy time making a decision...

As much as I like Brown I'd go Jackson. Brown would be a close 2nd and ..........then Caddy

 

[On The Rocks]

I appeciate this thread. I have the 1.5 pick in a new 12 team $250 dynasty league. I am assuming Portis is gone at 1.4, so i'm having to decide between Brown, Caddy, and Jackson. I'm NOT having an easy time making a decision...

I'd go Jackson.

me too. and i wouldn't think twice about it.

 

[LawFitz]

To say that Ronnie Brown can't shoulder a full load, when he's never gotten the opportunity to do so since he's always had to play with another elite talent, seems way premature.

At this point, Ronnie's got about the same injury risk as any other top ten RB. To speculate otherwise based on minor nicks last year and in college seems extremely fallacious.

Could he bust as a top 10-20 pick? Absolutely. But I simply don't understand ML's unwavering stance that the guy CAN'T carry the load when he's never really gotten the chance to do so.

Nick Saban, whom I respect very much and think is the next great NFL head coach, picked this kid #2 OVERALL. This after being intimately familiar with him as an SEC guy for 4 years. I think he would know better than any of us whether Ronnie is a feature back. And I don't think he would have taken him that high if he didn't think he was.

Last year was simply a matter of having a low cost Ricky Williams to help carry the load. It would've been dumb not to utilize those two assets together. This year, that's not an option. There's not other talent on the roster of that quality, so Ronnie will get the opps until he needs a breather and barring injury, he will be a solid RB1.

Convincing yourself that this low mileage, very large, early 20 something will get hurt without any prior history seems like a case of over analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

To say that Ronnie Brown can't shoulder a full load, when he's never gotten the opportunity to do so since he's always had to play with another elite talent, seems way premature.

At this point, Ronnie's got about the same injury risk as any other top ten RB. To speculate otherwise based on minor nicks last year and in college seems extremely fallacious.

Could he bust as a top 10-20 pick? Absolutely. But I simply don't understand ML's unwavering stance that the guy CAN'T carry the load when he's never really gotten the chance to do so.

Nick Saban, whom I respect very much and think is the next great NFL head coach, picked this kid #2 OVERALL. This after being intimately familiar with him as an SEC guy for 4 years. I think he would know better than any of us whether Ronnie is a feature back. And I don't think he would have taken him that high if he didn't think he was.

Last year was simply a matter of having a low cost Ricky Williams to help carry the load. It would've been dumb not to utilize those two assets together. This year, that's not an option. There's not other talent on the roster of that quality, so Ronnie will get the opps until he needs a breather and barring injury, he will be a solid RB1.

Convincing yourself that this low mileage, very large, early 20 something will get hurt without any prior history seems like a case of over analysis.

There is also a chance they were showcasing Ricky at the end of the year as well. If he doesn't get suspended, with his $ amount, Miami could have picked up a #2 in the draft for him...maybe even a #1.

 

[Patoons]

Nick Saban, whom I respect very much and think is the next great NFL head coach, picked this kid #2 OVERALL. This after being intimately familiar with him as an SEC guy for 4 years. I think he would know better than any of us whether Ronnie is a feature back. And I don't think he would have taken him that high if he didn't think he was.

Butch Davis also drafted Willie Green over Portis after seeing each in the Big East.

 

[LawFitz]

Nick Saban, whom I respect very much and think is the next great NFL head coach, picked this kid #2 OVERALL. This after being intimately familiar with him as an SEC guy for 4 years. I think he would know better than any of us whether Ronnie is a feature back. And I don't think he would have taken him that high if he didn't think he was.

Butch Davis also drafted Willie Green over Portis after seeing each in the Big East.

Davis picked Green b/c Portis was "not as big." One of many genius maneuvers by Butch.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just wondering if some people that have followed Nick Saban longer than I can answer this.

Has Saban ever NOT used a RBBC, at any level? He certainly did last year and I seem to recall LSU always having about 4 RBs that they rotated in and out the last few years even though a couple of them were apparently more talented than the rest (DD, Addai).

 

[Blackjacks]

Just wondering if some people that have followed Nick Saban longer than I can answer this.

Has Saban ever NOT used a RBBC, at any level? He certainly did last year and I seem to recall LSU always having about 4 RBs that they rotated in and out the last few years even though a couple of them were apparently more talented than the rest (DD, Addai).

Tell me the last time Linehan didn't use rbbc as well. Do you think S. Jackson is splitting carries this year. Like said in an earlier post, you don't draft a guy #2 overall to be your rb if he isn't everything you want.

 

[MLBrandow]

Just wondering if some people that have followed Nick Saban longer than I can answer this.

Has Saban ever NOT used a RBBC, at any level?  He certainly did last year and I seem to recall LSU always having about 4 RBs that they rotated in and out the last few years even though a couple of them were apparently more talented than the rest (DD, Addai).

Tell me the last time Linehan didn't use rbbc as well. Do you think S. Jackson is splitting carries this year. Like said in an earlier post, you don't draft a guy #2 overall to be your rb if he isn't everything you want.

Yes to Jackson. This is why those Bennett to STL rumors are so hot and heavy.If we could get back to the point here without digressing into the far-beaten Cadillac/Brown debate, what empirical evidence can we produce to show that Brown will lose or not lose goal-line carries?

1) Find a study of touches inside the 10, 5 under Saban at LSU for a few years. Does he go to one guy? Does he mix it up? Is it personnel or coaching caused?

2) Same thing but to last year with the Dolphins. That Brown only had 4 rushing TDs in 207 attempts is a bit disconcerting, but it would seem that those TD numbers will go up a lot next year, especially if Saban finds a suitable compliment.

In response to my Ronnie Brown to Warrick Dunn comparison, obviously they are different. It is just something I feel, from watching his play style, might be better suited for him. He's a shifty back trapped in a bulldozer body. He's already a hallmark of athleticism, and trimming up 10-15-20lbs might give him enough of a burst to become that elusive-type back. Or he could simply not be a fool and try to run over people and instead run around them. Maybe he needs a veteran back to come in and give him a few lessons.

In response to Blackjack, if you would WATCH the injuries in question for both Cadillac and Brown you would clearly be able to discern that Cadillac's hamstring injury was a mis-step on one of his first carries (I want to say the 2nd) in the Lions game, and the foot injury came from when he juked improperly into a defender's tackle. Both were quick-hits that are non-indicative of any sort of habitual injury concern. These are unpredictable injuries resulting from form deficiencies, and both of which Cadillac has sworn first-hand will be a non-issue for this season.

Brown's injuries last season, by contrast, resulted from constant barrelling into linebackers and safeties. Upon reviewing film, one can clearly see a gradual erosion of his agility and effectiveness.

If it was Cadillac plowing into defenders head-on, and Brown who had gotten an unlucky break, I'd be perfectly on your side.

But to claim that Cadillac's injuries makes him a durability issue when Brown is the one trying to plow over defenders by the dozens over the course of a football game is asenine.

This came from coaching at Auburn. Brown was only a few pounds lighter than he is now at Auburn and the defenders are much smaller in the college game. He still believes he can wear defenses down by plowing over them, and that's his mistake. In the NFL, the best and longest-lasting RBs are the ones that plow only when they have to--they don't go looking to inflict damage on 250lb linebackers and 210lb safeties.

And the only cure for that problem is maturation as a RB and developing a new play style. You take away his ability to barrel over defenders and you're left with numbers at a combine and a deficiency for self-inflicting wear.

That cure is not going to come this season when he's being leaned on to carry the RB load without a reliable backup, and he'll fold under the weight just like I've said all offseason.

If Saban finds a reliable counterpart to Brown, you'll see a decrease in his PPG, and if he doesn't, you'll see one of two things: solid production by Brown early, followed by a season-ending injury, or Saban running a Childress-type system focused almost entirely on the pass, leading to the same decrease in his PPG.

I see no upside here, sorry. RBs not names Clinton Portis don't magically change their entire running styles season to season, and when they do (as with Portis' case), there is a lot of press bits about it.

What have you heard this offseason about Brown (primary sources) that would indicate his having fixed these problems?

In spite of all of this, he may well try to make the adjustment after early struggles and succeed late, but there are a lot more question marks here than a first round RB1 should garner, and as I said earlier, I wouldn't touch him under any circumstances. This is the part where combine measurables aren't everything, and while I'm confident Saban will find a solution because he's a great coach, that solution will not involve Brown putting up stud numbers.

Sorry

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Just wondering if some people that have followed Nick Saban longer than I can answer this.

Has Saban ever NOT used a RBBC, at any level? He certainly did last year and I seem to recall LSU always having about 4 RBs that they rotated in and out the last few years even though a couple of them were apparently more talented than the rest (DD, Addai).

Tell me the last time Linehan didn't use rbbc as well. Do you think S. Jackson is splitting carries this year. Like said in an earlier post, you don't draft a guy #2 overall to be your rb if he isn't everything you want.

As has been brought up many times Linehan hasn't had any RBs that stand out, while Saban had a guy who's a top 15 starting NFL RB and another who was a 1st round pick in the NFL draft yet neither came close to a featured role under Saban.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I appeciate this thread. I have the 1.5 pick in a new 12 team $250 dynasty league. I am assuming Portis is gone at 1.4, so i'm having to decide between Brown, Caddy, and Jackson. I'm NOT having an easy time making a decision...

The choice is between Caddy and Brown if you ask me. If it is a redraft league I would lean more towards Brown because at some point they will get backups who have an opportunity to give Brown a rest. Caddy has more guys to vulture from him. In a dynasty it is really a crapshoot.

 

[Liquid Tension]

In response to my Ronnie Brown to Warrick Dunn comparison, obviously they are different. It is just something I feel, from watching his play style, might be better suited for him. He's a shifty back trapped in a bulldozer body. He's already a hallmark of athleticism, and trimming up 10-15-20lbs might give him enough of a burst to become that elusive-type back. Or he could simply not be a fool and try to run over people and instead run around them. Maybe he needs a veteran back to come in and give him a few lessons.

MLBrandow, I think you are way off target here. First you talk about Brown losing weight so that he can get enough boost to become that elusive back??? Brown is already faster than Caddy with his size. He is solid rock and could only lose 5 lb's anyway which I understand he has. I think Caddy cuts better and maintains speed better through his cuts than Ronnie, but Ronnie is faster and Strong and catches the ball better. I have seen almost every run from each of them and am not convinced either has better vision yet, but if I had to choose I would choose Caddy.They are both very good

 

[Blackjacks]

So Ronnie takes to many hits....funny cause the one thing I liked about watching Caddy last year was fighting for every inch. It's an impossible arguement with you if your just going to keep on saying Brown's injury was due to durability and Caddy's was just bad luck. It's funny how Caddy's "bad luck" happened after he had recieved the most carries for a rookie in nfl history. Just think if Fred Taylor wouldn't have had the bad luck like Caddy. Unfortunetly for us football fans he just had muscles falling off bones and knees getting twisted at the wrong times, what a shame. It's very easy to sell your self on Caddy but your not doing a good jopb with everyone else. Your not bringing up facts, your bringing up opinionated facts.

 

[Defenze]

For ML it's all about the stat line. You've used enough stats and charts to choke a horse.

How bout basing your like or dislike of Brown on something and little more....shall we say......substantial.

Like those pretty white uni's and the cute little fishy on the helmet.

 

[pinequick]

He's one of the guys on my "do not touch with a 40-foot fantasy pole" in redrafts this year, because I don't trust him to carry the load, and I doubt Saban does either.

Why would they draft him #2 overall if they didn't think he could handle a 16 game span? Seems they could have drafted a guy who would bring more impact to the team with that pick then bringing in an RBBC back, no?Also, that was his senior year in college. He's gone through a different conditioning program and probably has put more bulk on. Aside from that one injury you are referring to, I don't recall there being a history there.

It's not that I do not understand your concern, because I think many have it, I just don't know that you can worry that he won't hold up when it's occured at one point in his college career.

The same reason the Saints took Bush #2 this year. He's a playmaker. Bush is never going to carry the load himself either, but that doesn't mean he (and Brown) aren't worth their draft (NFL) spot.And it's not just that one point, it's last year. Hold on and I'll go dig up some stats from an old RB thread.

Okay here ya go:

monster season for ronnie brown in miami next season

this guy is a sure fire first round pick in every fantasy draft held and he proves why he was the #2 overall pick in last years draft

ronnie brown = 2006 player

You're a fool. He's going to break down after 6 weeks.

maybe, but...rushing splits G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

1ST HALF 0 112 381 3.4 22 2 20

2ND HALF 0 95 526 5.5 65 2 21

rushing splits G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 144 594 4.1 65 4 29

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 55 284 5.2 58 0 10

rushing splits G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

1ST QUARTER 0 61 194 3.2 14 1 9

2ND QUARTER 0 51 187 3.7 22 1 11

3RD QUARTER 0 47 281 6.0 65 1 12

4TH QUARTER 0 48 245 5.1 58 1 9

4TH (WITHIN 7) 0 32 182 5.7 58 1 7

receiving splits G Rec Yds Avg TD

SEPTEMBER GAMES 3 5 24 4.8 0

OCTOBER GAMES 4 12 90 7.5 0

NOVEMBER GAMES 4 9 64 7.1 0

DECEMBER GAMES 3 4 41 10.3 1

receiving splits G Rec Yds Avg TD

1ST QUARTER 0 10 51 5.1 0

2ND QUARTER 0 3 14 4.7 0

3RD QUARTER 0 4 23 5.8 0

4TH QUARTER 0 15 144 9.6 1

of course it's a small sample size from his rookie year, but i'd say he gets stronger as the game and the year goes on based on the stats

This looks pretty solid right? Take a good look. All of those numbers are correct.Now, take a second look. See any relevant stat missing?

Rushing splits broken by month.

The reason this is missing is pretty obvious when you see:

(3G)SEPT - 3.9 YPC, 20.7 avg. touches (att+rec)

(3G)OCT - 5.6, 17.3

(3G)NOV - 4.6, 15.5

(3G)DEC - 3.03, 12 (missed week 16)

(1G)JAN - 2.6, 11

What happened there? Stronger as the season goes on? Looks like he broke down to me.

But I thought the Dolphins won their last 6 games of the season? Yeah.

His touches only went down because Ricky came back, right? Well, if that were the case, wouldn't his YPC go up, since that is the logic of RBBC? He wore out as Ricky got back to form.

Here are the best stat-lines I can give you:

In 7 losses, Ronnie Brown averaged 5.2 YPC with 2 TDs

In 9 wins, Ronnie Brown averaged 3.8 YPC with 2 TDs and 1 missed game.

In 7 losses, Ronnie Brown averaged 80 YPG and amassed 560 total yards.

In 9 wins, Ronnie Brown averaged 64.3 YPG and amassed 579 total yards.

5.6 Fantasy Points in the Playoff week (15)

0 Fantasy Points in the Super Bowl week (16)

Miami's success last year was an almost perfect inverse correlation to Brown's success.

This is the guy that is you're investing your first round pick in? or 2nd?

Without straying further from your question, you don't have to worry about him losing goal-line carries. You do need to worry about him losing field time.

So you have done an excellent job of illustrating the infamous "rookie wall", using Ronnie Brown as an example. Ronnie's not a rookie this season. . .