Rook rushers most likely to have 1k season? (1 Viewer)

[Phlash]

I know that historically it isn't exactly common to have a rookie RB go over 1000 yards, but out of this rooke crop who do you think is most likely?

My pick would have to be Deangelo Williams. I'm not in the business of predicting injury, but regardless I believe he has more rushing/receiving talent than DeShaun Foster. If any RB is going to do it, he should be the guy, IMO.

 

[wannabee]

I think there is at least one rookie RB that historically goes over 1k rush yards. My bet would be either White or Addai, even though I think Williams and Maroney are better dynasty options. I think Addai and White will have opportunity to average 62.5 yds/game to top 1k.

 

[Musesboy]

White

 

[Chase Stuart]

Bush.

 

[aposulli]

Addai 4:1

Bush 6:1

White 6:1

D.Williams 8:1

Maroney 10:1

Harrison 30:1

Norwood 40:1

Calhoun 40:1

Washington 50:1

Lundi 50:1

Drew 70:1

Edit: dropped Bush, didn't give much thought that more than half the yards he gains will be thru the air

funny according to these odds, there is a 1:1 chance that there will be one guy who goes over 1,000... sounds about right

 

[Chase Stuart]

Addai 4:1

Bush 6:1

White 6:1

D.Williams 8:1

Maroney 10:1

Harrison 30:1

Norwood 40:1

Calhoun 40:1

Washington 50:1

Lundi 50:1

Drew 70:1

Edit: dropped Bush, didn't give much thought that more than half the yards he gains will be thru the air

funny according to these odds, there is a 1:1 chance that there will be one guy who goes over 1,000... sounds about right

That's not exactly what those odds means. But the percentages of any of those individual events happening sums to 82%.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Nice to see some of these millionaires are going to average 63 yards rushing per game.

It's all about who's buried the least in the RBBC system.

 

[aposulli]

Addai 4:1

Bush 5:1

White 5:1

D.Williams 7:1

Maroney 9:1

Harrison 29:1

Norwood 39:1

Calhoun 39:1

Washington 49:1

Lundi 49:1

Drew 69:1

Edit: dropped Bush, didn't give much thought that more than half the yards he gains will be thru the air

funny according to these odds, there is a 1:1 chance that there will be one guy who goes over 1,000... sounds about right

That's not exactly what those odds means. But the percentages of any of those individual events happening sums to 82%.

that's a good point.Fixed.

 

[aposulli]

It's all about who's buried the least in the RBBC system.

If Addai was in New Orleans, I would say he's more like 60:1So yes, it depends on how much competition the Rook has factors in, but talent carries alot of weight.

And if Bush was in Indy, he'd be 1:1

Fixed: meant to say Bush in Indy, not N.O.

 

[Mooks77]

It's all about who's buried the least in the RBBC system.

If Addai was in New Orleans, I would say he's more like 60:1So yes, it depends on how much competition the Rook has factors in, but talent carries alot of weight.

And if Bush was in New Orleans, he'd be 1:1

Ummm isn't Bush in New Orleans?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

White

Maroney

Norwood

Everyone else

 

[Portis 26]

know that historically it isn't exactly common to have a rookie RB go over 1000 yards

Surprised no-one else has challenged this. There are plenty of rookie RBs who've rushed for 1000 yards.The reason is simple. Rookie RBs aren't like rookie WRs or indeed rookie QBs. It's not like the position demands a lot of learning. You can just stick them in there and let their instincts take over - within reason. Obviously they need to pick up pass protection and so on. But in general it's much more straightforward for rookies to be instantly successful at the RB position than it is at other positions.

 

[MLBrandow]

IMO, here's how the yardage leaders will look for Rookies:

White

DWilliams

Drew

Addai

Bush

Then a crop of insignificant value

 

[Z-Dog]

know that historically it isn't exactly common to have a rookie RB go over 1000 yards

Surprised no-one else has challenged this. There are plenty of rookie RBs who've rushed for 1000 yards.The reason is simple. Rookie RBs aren't like rookie WRs or indeed rookie QBs. It's not like the position demands a lot of learning. You can just stick them in there and let their instincts take over - within reason. Obviously they need to pick up pass protection and so on. But in general it's much more straightforward for rookies to be instantly successful at the RB position than it is at other positions.

Depends what you mean by plenty. According to the historical data dominator, there have been 48 rookies who have run for 1,000 yards since 1968. That's 48 in 38 years. There were three years in which three rookies did it, and ten years in which no rookie did it. Notably, the last time a rookie didn't reach the 1,000 yard mark was 1991.I think it's safe to assume that at least one rookie will run for 1,000 yards. In the last 15 years, two or more rookies have gone for 1,000 nine times, so it's not unreasonable to believe that two rookies would do it. Interestingly, only about half of those are first-round picks.

And if I gotta pick two guys, I'd say Addai and Williams.

 

[softball]

I know the topic is which will go over... and i'll give my opinion

But why on earth would White lead so many of the posts?

He's currently 3rd on the depth chart, hasn't run in 5 months and missed all OTAs

and most of the recent mini camps.

Sometimes it's tougfh to read all the fan replys......

The 1st portion of predicting is talent. And there are talented rushers in this draft.

Bush, Williams(my favorite) and White are IMHO the most talented.

then there is Maroney and Addai both have the talent to be better than average tp excellent RBs but they have a little less on the "pure" side of talent IMHO.

2nd is opportunity, and that's where this whole draft class comes up short.

No one was drafted into a Dolphins or Bucs of 2005 situation. Brown was there before Ricky announced he'd be back, and Caddy was being gushed over by Gruden after he coached him in the senior bowl.

There are no clear openings like these in 2006.

But to answer the ?

Addai has Dom Rhodes to beat out, or at least share with. And he has the talent and MOST RUSHING opportunity to succeed. I think Addai will actually be the 1st and 2nd down back and Rhodes the passing situation back(that's conflicting w/ most opinions) This will keep the rookie out of passing situations and reduce the threat of Manning getting blasted.....

Bush has Deuce to deal with, but that is still not clearly a problem. Deuce IMHO may look alot like Fred Taylor in 2005, some good games and no explosiveness in his game. He's hurt, and we all know it takes longer to get over that injury than 1 year.

The others all have established veterans to beat out, and head coaches who like those vets.....

So sans an injury. Addai and Bush.

 

[Shermanator]

Im going with the adage "successful teams breed successful players". I'll take the player that has the best o-line and qb.

That player is Addai. He probably isnt the most skilled of the other rookies, but he is by far in the best situation for success.

 

[MrPhoenix]

Foster will get hurt again, which should pave the way for D'Angelo Williams to get 1100 yards and about 8 TD's.

You heard it here.

 

[EBF]

White and Addai have the best opportunity to rush for 1,000 yards. They both have a very reasonable chance of starting from day one. I think White is clearly the better player, but Addai is in the better situation.

Bush is the best rookie RB and will probably have the most total yards, but he will likely be limited to 600-800 rushing yards.

Maroney will probably be limited to backup duty for at least half the season.

I'm not at all convinced that Williams is a better player than Foster, so I think he'll need a serious injury to become the full-time starter. I think he's the worst bet of this group for redraft purposes.

 

[Tau837]

If Foster gets hurt in preseason, it's Williams in a landslide.

Otherwise, I'd have to say Addai due as others have said to (1) his talent; (2) his surrounding talent (passing game, OL); and (3) the least competing talent to beat out amongst rookie backs.

I don't see all the touting of White here and in general. Maybe preseason will show me something, but until and unless that happens, I can't see it.

As for Bush, even if we assume he gets 5 ypc, he would need 200 carries. I don't see either of those things happening. I think he'll be getting a lot of attention in the passing game, which will serve to shift a greater portion of the carries to Deuce.

 

[JayMan]

Just to look at historical results... since 1990.

All RBs that had at least 1000 yds rushing in their rookie season:

1. By FF ranking (i.e. RB ranking for that particular year):

First Name Active Year RushYds FFRankEdgerrin James yes 1999 1553 1 Curtis Martin yes 1995 1487 2 Jerome Bettis yes 1993 1429 2 Marshall Faulk yes 1994 1282 3 Clinton Portis yes 2002 1508 4 Mike Anderson yes 2000 1487 4 Fred Taylor yes 1998 1223 4 LaDainian Tomlinson yes 2001 1236 7 Robert Edwards no 1998 1115 8 Corey Dillon yes 1997 1129 8 Eddie George no 1996 1368 8 Ricky Watters no 1992 1013 8 Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9 Karim Abdul-Jabbar no 1996 1116 9 Dominic Rhodes yes 2001 1104 11 Terrell Davis no 1995 1117 12 Domanick Davis yes 2003 1031 13 Anthony Thomas yes 2001 1183 13 Olandis Gary no 1999 1159 14 Errict Rhett no 1994 1011 14 Ronald Moore no 1993 1018 15 Jamal Lewis yes 2000 1364 16 Rashaan Salaam no 1995 1074 16 Cadillac Williams yes 2005 1178 19 Reggie Brooks no 1993 1063 19 Kevin Jones yes 2004 1133 21

2. Same group - by year / descending:

First Name Active Year RushYds FFRankCadillac Williams yes 2005 1178 19 Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9 Kevin Jones yes 2004 1133 21 Domanick Davis yes 2003 1031 13 Clinton Portis yes 2002 1508 4 LaDainian Tomlinson yes 2001 1236 7 Dominic Rhodes yes 2001 1104 11 Anthony Thomas yes 2001 1183 13 Mike Anderson yes 2000 1487 4 Jamal Lewis yes 2000 1364 16 Edgerrin James yes 1999 1553 1 Olandis Gary no 1999 1159 14 Fred Taylor yes 1998 1223 4 Robert Edwards no 1998 1115 8 Corey Dillon yes 1997 1129 8 Eddie George no 1996 1368 8 Karim Abdul-Jabbar no 1996 1116 9 Curtis Martin yes 1995 1487 2 Terrell Davis no 1995 1117 12 Rashaan Salaam no 1995 1074 16 Marshall Faulk yes 1994 1282 3 Errict Rhett no 1994 1011 14 Jerome Bettis yes 1993 1429 2 Ronald Moore no 1993 1018 15 Reggie Brooks no 1993 1063 19 Ricky Watters no 1992 1013 8

26 times in the last 16 years (1.625/yr) ... and 8 times in the last 5 years...

 

[purestrength]

Interesting post, JayMan.

 

[beto]

I don't know how you can say that DeAngelo has more rushing/receiving talent than DeShaun.

I'd give a big edge to DeShaun over DeAngelo in receiving. The Panthers have often split Foster out wide and he has made a lot of nice catches over the years.

In rushing DeAngelo probably has a slight edge in talent. He holds the ball better and has more quicks than Foster. Foster is no slouch, though and I think Williams will have to earn playing time as long as Foster is healthy. Foster has also had some problems at the goaline, so we will see how Williams does there.

 

[B. Nugget]

Just to look at historical results... since 1990.

All RBs that had at least 1000 yds rushing in their rookie season:

1. By FF ranking (i.e. RB ranking for that particular year):

First Name Active Year RushYds FFRankEdgerrin James yes 1999 1553 1 Curtis Martin yes 1995 1487 2 Jerome Bettis yes 1993 1429 2 Marshall Faulk yes 1994 1282 3 Clinton Portis yes 2002 1508 4 Mike Anderson yes 2000 1487 4 Fred Taylor yes 1998 1223 4 LaDainian Tomlinson yes 2001 1236 7 Robert Edwards no 1998 1115 8 Corey Dillon yes 1997 1129 8 Eddie George no 1996 1368 8 Ricky Watters no 1992 1013 8 Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9 Karim Abdul-Jabbar no 1996 1116 9 Dominic Rhodes yes 2001 1104 11 Terrell Davis no 1995 1117 12 Domanick Davis yes 2003 1031 13 Anthony Thomas yes 2001 1183 13 Olandis Gary no 1999 1159 14 Errict Rhett no 1994 1011 14 Ronald Moore no 1993 1018 15 Jamal Lewis yes 2000 1364 16 Rashaan Salaam no 1995 1074 16 Cadillac Williams yes 2005 1178 19 Reggie Brooks no 1993 1063 19 Kevin Jones yes 2004 1133 212. Same group - by year / descending:

First Name Active Year RushYds FFRankCadillac Williams yes 2005 1178 19 Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9Kevin Jones yes 2004 1133 21 Domanick Davis yes 2003 1031 13 Clinton Portis yes 2002 1508 4 LaDainian Tomlinson yes 2001 1236 7 Dominic Rhodes yes 2001 1104 11 Anthony Thomas yes 2001 1183 13 Mike Anderson yes 2000 1487 4 Jamal Lewis yes 2000 1364 16 Edgerrin James yes 1999 1553 1 Olandis Gary no 1999 1159 14 Fred Taylor yes 1998 1223 4 Robert Edwards no 1998 1115 8 Corey Dillon yes 1997 1129 8 Eddie George no 1996 1368 8 Karim Abdul-Jabbar no 1996 1116 9 Curtis Martin yes 1995 1487 2 Terrell Davis no 1995 1117 12 Rashaan Salaam no 1995 1074 16 Marshall Faulk yes 1994 1282 3 Errict Rhett no 1994 1011 14 Jerome Bettis yes 1993 1429 2 Ronald Moore no 1993 1018 15 Reggie Brooks no 1993 1063 19 Ricky Watters no 1992 1013 8

26 times in the last 16 years (1.625/yr) ... and 8 times in the last 5 years...

Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9You might want to omit this one or at least put a disclaimer in because Willis didn't play his rookie year and somebody will use this to discredit your research.

B. Nugget

 

[JayMan]

Just to look at historical results... since 1990.

All RBs that had at least 1000 yds rushing in their rookie season:

1. By FF ranking (i.e. RB ranking for that particular year):

First Name Active Year RushYds FFRankEdgerrin James yes 1999 1553 1 Curtis Martin yes 1995 1487 2 Jerome Bettis yes 1993 1429 2 Marshall Faulk yes 1994 1282 3 Clinton Portis yes 2002 1508 4 Mike Anderson yes 2000 1487 4 Fred Taylor yes 1998 1223 4 LaDainian Tomlinson yes 2001 1236 7 Robert Edwards no 1998 1115 8 Corey Dillon yes 1997 1129 8 Eddie George no 1996 1368 8 Ricky Watters no 1992 1013 8 Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9 Karim Abdul-Jabbar no 1996 1116 9 Dominic Rhodes yes 2001 1104 11 Terrell Davis no 1995 1117 12 Domanick Davis yes 2003 1031 13 Anthony Thomas yes 2001 1183 13 Olandis Gary no 1999 1159 14 Errict Rhett no 1994 1011 14 Ronald Moore no 1993 1018 15 Jamal Lewis yes 2000 1364 16 Rashaan Salaam no 1995 1074 16 Cadillac Williams yes 2005 1178 19 Reggie Brooks no 1993 1063 19 Kevin Jones yes 2004 1133 212. Same group - by year / descending:

First Name Active Year RushYds FFRankCadillac Williams yes 2005 1178 19 Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9Kevin Jones yes 2004 1133 21 Domanick Davis yes 2003 1031 13 Clinton Portis yes 2002 1508 4 LaDainian Tomlinson yes 2001 1236 7 Dominic Rhodes yes 2001 1104 11 Anthony Thomas yes 2001 1183 13 Mike Anderson yes 2000 1487 4 Jamal Lewis yes 2000 1364 16 Edgerrin James yes 1999 1553 1 Olandis Gary no 1999 1159 14 Fred Taylor yes 1998 1223 4 Robert Edwards no 1998 1115 8 Corey Dillon yes 1997 1129 8 Eddie George no 1996 1368 8 Karim Abdul-Jabbar no 1996 1116 9 Curtis Martin yes 1995 1487 2 Terrell Davis no 1995 1117 12 Rashaan Salaam no 1995 1074 16 Marshall Faulk yes 1994 1282 3 Errict Rhett no 1994 1011 14 Jerome Bettis yes 1993 1429 2 Ronald Moore no 1993 1018 15 Reggie Brooks no 1993 1063 19 Ricky Watters no 1992 1013 8

26 times in the last 16 years (1.625/yr) ... and 8 times in the last 5 years...

Willis McGahee yes 2004 1128 9You might want to omit this one or at least put a disclaimer in because Willis didn't play his rookie year and somebody will use this to discredit your research.

B. Nugget

Interesting point indeed... the database I'm using (coming from Football Reference) puts the "year" field to 0 if a player did not participate in any action in his rookie season... which can cause distortion like you found above...Thanks for the reply