Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I was kicking around the top few rookies for our dynasty (non PPR) draft restocking and have gotten burned the last few years manuvering to land top 3 picks and using them on RBs. I've had five top five picks in the last five drafts and have been creamed with four busts and only AP working out for me (a 20% success rate sucks). So I once again made a trade to get into the top three picks and I'm wary of this RB class.
Many love Moreno but I don't. I like Micheal Crabtree and made a case for taking a top WR for non PPR dynasty leagues and thought I'd share:
RBs universally HAVE gone first in most rookie drafts but the shared backfields and short lifespans of RBs coupled with high bust rates has to be factored in and weighed against one of the best young wide outs to come out since Larry Fitzgerald.
Here are the top RBs to have come out since 2004.
In 2004 there were 20 RBs drafted by the NFL, here are the tops ones that the fantasy world focused on:
http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/rb.html
2004
1 1 24 24 Steven Jackson Rams Oregon State
2 1 26 26 Chris Perry Bengals Michigan
3 1 30 30 Kevin Jones Lions Virginia Tech
4 2 9 41 Tatum Bell Broncos Oklahoma State
5 2 11 43 Julius Jones Cowboys Notre Dame
6 2 23 55 Greg Jones Jaguars Florida State
7 4 23 119 Mewelde Moore Vikings Tulane
8 4 32 128 Cedric Cobbs Patriots Arkansas
9 5 22 154 Michael Turner Chargers Northern Illinois
... The only one to really blow up out of the gates was Steven Jackson. Turner only blew up last year after languishing on benches for years. Others were major busts.
In 2005 there were 25 RBs drafted, here are the top ones that the fantasy world focused on:
2005
1 1 2 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins Auburn
2 1 4 4 Cedric Benson Bears Texas
3 1 5 5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers Auburn
4 2 12 44 J.J. Arrington Cardinals California
5 2 22 54 Eric Shelton Panthers Louisville
6 3 1 65 Frank Gore 49ers Miami (FL)
7 3 9 73 Vernand Morency Texans Oklahoma State
8 3 13 77 Ryan Moats Eagles Louisiana Tech
9 3 37 101 Maurice Clarett Broncos Ohio State
10 4 8 109 Marion Barber Cowboys Minnesota
11 4 9 110 Brandon Jacobs Giants Southern Illinois
... 2005 was unique in that it was the FIRST TIME in NFL history that three RBs were taken off the draft board in the top five picks. I knew how significant that was in draft terms but it didn't play out in NFL or FF terms. The top five picks RBs were far from studs with only Ronnie Brown experiencing a degree of success. The best RBs were, Gore, Barber, and Jacobs, so that draft showed the hit-miss aspect of focusing too intently on the top picks/prospects.
In 2006 there were only 17 RBs taken:
2006
1 1 2 2 Reggie Bush Saints USC
2 1 21 21 Laurence Maroney Patriots Minnesota
3 1 27 27 DeAngelo Williams Panthers Memphis
4 1 30 30 Joseph Addai Colts Louisiana State
5 2 13 45 LenDale White Titans USC
6 2 28 60 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars UCLA
... The NFL got it right where the top six RBs were the best of the bunch but Lo Maroney has been a bust so far. Bush never lived up to the hype but he's found his niche. DeAngelo finally came thru last year but Addai seems to be fading. MJD was easily the best value and arguably the best FF back so once again the top backs were over valued by the fantasy world.
The success of MJD and the cream at the top with Adrian Peterson coming out boosted the NFL's intest in RBs in 2007 because 25 RBs were taken:
2007
1 1 7 7 Adrian Peterson Vikings Oklahoma
2 1 12 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills California
3 2 17 49 Kenny Irons Bengals Auburn
4 2 18 50 Chris Henry Titans Arizona
5 2 20 52 Brian Leonard Rams Rutgers
6 2 31 63 Brandon Jackson Packers Nebraska
7 3 7 71 Lorenzo Booker Dolphins Florida State
8 3 27 90 Tony Hunt Eagles Penn State
9 3 30 93 Garrett Wolfe Bears Northern Illinois
10 4 1 100 Michael Bush Raiders Louisville
... The NFL and fantasy world collided in 07 as AP and Lynch both hit. AP's success should be the rule and not the exception but the facts don't seem to bear out that the top RB taken off the NFL and FF boards succeed as they did in 2007.
The duel backfields and 07 success fueled the RB desire in 2008 as 27 RBs were taken:
2008
1 1 4 4 Darren McFadden Raiders Arkansas
2 1 13 13 Jonathan Stewart Panthers Oregon
3 1 22 22 Felix Jones Cowboys Arkansas
4 1 23 23 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers Illinois
5 1 24 24 Chris Johnson Titans East Carolina
6 2 13 44 Matt Forte Bears Tulane
7 2 24 55 Ray Rice Ravens Rutgers
8 3 1 64 Kevin Smith Lions Central Florida
9 3 6 69 Jacob Hester Chargers Louisiana State
10 3 10 73 Jamaal Charles Chiefs Texas
11 3 26 89 Steve Slaton Texans West Virginia
12 4 23 122 Tashard Choice Cowboys Georgia Tech
13 5 4 139 Ryan Torain Broncos Arizona State
14 5 11 146 Jerome Felton Lions Furman
15 5 14 149 Timothy Hightower Cardinals Richmond
... Stewart/Johnson/Forte/Smith/and Slaton enjoyed some degree of success but the top back didn't come close to equalling Adrian Peterson's success. Also, right now, their appears to be a GLUT of un or under tapped RB talent in the league and we're also seeing many teams going with split backfields and NICHE backs, like third down and goal line specialists. That philosophy fits well for guys like Reggie Bush who doesn't run well between the tackles and goes down far too easily but works well in space and sneakily gets his yards via the air plus working the edges on the gound. Other guys have to find their niches.
So we come to this year's RB class. Twenty-two RBs were taken so its a dip from the previous two years. Their doesn't appear to be as much enthusiasm for RBs and this year's top back didn't go in the top ten like AP or McFadden:
2009
1 1 12 12 Knowshon Moreno Broncos Georgia
2 1 27 27 Donald Brown Colts Connecticut
3 1 31 31 Chris Wells Cardinals Ohio State
4 2 21 53 LeSean McCoy Eagles Pittsburgh
5 3 1 65 Shonn Greene Jets Iowa
6 3 10 74 Glen Coffee 49ers Alabama
7 4 11 111 Mike Goodson Panthers Texas A&M
8 4 28 128 Tony Fiammetta Panthers Syracuse
9 4 29 129 Andre Brown Giants North Carolina State
... I understand why fantasy football favors RBs over WRs due to the fact that if you unearth a stud RB it means that you are that much ahead of the rest of the pack but stumbling upon a true stud WR holds the same value. Their really are few true stud WRs and they are much harder to find because their are normally AT LEAST two WRs on the field for each offensive snap and up to four. A stud WR will always be on the field in nearly every offensive package.
So more WRs get drafted.
In 2004 31 WRs were drafted but only ONE turned into a true stud WR:
2004
1 1 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh
... 31 taken with only one true stud and that was the first guy taken, LJ.
In 2005 there were 31 WRs taken again:
2005
1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan
2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina
3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC
4 1 21 21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas
5 1 22 22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma
6 1 27 27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham
... The best of the bunch is still being determined but the best individual season, so far, has come to BE and he was the top WR taken. Roddy White is closing in but BE can easily regain the top billing from this group and I think he will.
In 2006 34 WRs were taken and their was one true stud but the top WR taken has turned out very good.
2006
1 1 25 25 Santonio Holmes Steelers Ohio State
2 2 4 36 Chad Jackson Patriots Florida
3 2 12 44 Sinorice Moss Giants Miami (FL)
4 2 20 52 Greg Jennings Packers Western Michigan
5 2 25 57 Devin Hester Bears Miami (FL)
6 3 14 78 Travis Wilson Browns Oklahoma
7 3 18 82 Derek Hagan Dolphins Arizona State
8 3 20 84 Brandon Williams 49ers Wisconsin
9 3 26 90 Maurice Stovall Buccaneers Notre Dame
10 3 31 95 Willie Reid Steelers Florida State
11 4 3 100 Michael Robinson 49ers Penn State
12 4 6 103 Brad Smith Jets Missouri
13 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers Packers Texas Christian
14 4 12 109 Jason Avant Eagles Michigan
15 4 14 111 Demetrius Williams Ravens Oregon
16 4 18 115 Will Blackmon Packers Boston College
17 4 22 119 Brandon Marshall Broncos Central Florida
... Brandon Marshall has been the one true stud WR and he was the 17th WR plucked from the board but Santonio is a solid WR in his own right and Marshall is a head case but he is a stud.
In 2007 only one true stud WR has surfaced so far:
2007
1 1 2 2 Calvin Johnson Lions Georgia Tech
... CJ the top WR.
2008 was unique in that NO WRs were taken in the first round so obviously no top drafted WR would or could emerge with a top NFL pick to become a stud. Two undersized guys did emerge from the second round but neither are or will every become true #1 NFL WRs hence they never will be true stud FF WRs. 35 WRs taken:
2008
1 2 2 33 Donnie Avery Rams Houston
2 2 3 34 Devin Thomas Redskins Michigan State
3 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson Packers Kansas State
4 2 10 41 James Hardy Bills Indiana
5 2 11 42 Eddie Royal Broncos Virginia Tech
6 2 15 46 Jerome Simpson Bengals Coastal Carolina
7 2 18 49 DeSean Jackson Eagles California
... That brings us up to this year:
2009
1 1 7 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey Raiders Maryland
2 1 10 10 Michael Crabtree 49ers Texas Tech
3 1 19 19 Jeremy Maclin Eagles Missouri
4 1 22 22 Percy Harvin Vikings Florida
5 1 29 29 Hakeem Nicks Giants North Carolina
6 1 30 30 Kenny Britt Titans Rutgers
7 2 4 36 Brian Robiskie Browns Ohio State
... Six first rounders and Biskie a high second rounder.
I think its obvious that one guy is head and shoulders better than the rest and is a legitimate threat to become a true-stud NFL #1 WR and a true-stud FF wide out and I think Crabtree's chances to succeeed are far and away better than any of the top drafted RBs and I still don't like Moreno but I'm sitting on the third pick in our rookie draft and I don't think I have a shot to nab him so I'm looking at one of the top RBs but I'd prefer to have Crabby but that's just my humble opinion but I think I made a solid case to support my opinion.
=====
My skepticism stems from following the lemmings off the cliff and taking a litanny of busted first round RBs and re-evaluating the wisdom of going for the top ranked WR if one is head and shoulders above the rest.
Many here play PPR and already have Crabtree atop their rookie draft lists but for non-PPR rookie drafties they may want to take another look at Crabby.
Many love Moreno but I don't. I like Micheal Crabtree and made a case for taking a top WR for non PPR dynasty leagues and thought I'd share:
RBs universally HAVE gone first in most rookie drafts but the shared backfields and short lifespans of RBs coupled with high bust rates has to be factored in and weighed against one of the best young wide outs to come out since Larry Fitzgerald.
Here are the top RBs to have come out since 2004.
In 2004 there were 20 RBs drafted by the NFL, here are the tops ones that the fantasy world focused on:
http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/rb.html
2004
1 1 24 24 Steven Jackson Rams Oregon State
2 1 26 26 Chris Perry Bengals Michigan
3 1 30 30 Kevin Jones Lions Virginia Tech
4 2 9 41 Tatum Bell Broncos Oklahoma State
5 2 11 43 Julius Jones Cowboys Notre Dame
6 2 23 55 Greg Jones Jaguars Florida State
7 4 23 119 Mewelde Moore Vikings Tulane
8 4 32 128 Cedric Cobbs Patriots Arkansas
9 5 22 154 Michael Turner Chargers Northern Illinois
... The only one to really blow up out of the gates was Steven Jackson. Turner only blew up last year after languishing on benches for years. Others were major busts.
In 2005 there were 25 RBs drafted, here are the top ones that the fantasy world focused on:
2005
1 1 2 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins Auburn
2 1 4 4 Cedric Benson Bears Texas
3 1 5 5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers Auburn
4 2 12 44 J.J. Arrington Cardinals California
5 2 22 54 Eric Shelton Panthers Louisville
6 3 1 65 Frank Gore 49ers Miami (FL)
7 3 9 73 Vernand Morency Texans Oklahoma State
8 3 13 77 Ryan Moats Eagles Louisiana Tech
9 3 37 101 Maurice Clarett Broncos Ohio State
10 4 8 109 Marion Barber Cowboys Minnesota
11 4 9 110 Brandon Jacobs Giants Southern Illinois
... 2005 was unique in that it was the FIRST TIME in NFL history that three RBs were taken off the draft board in the top five picks. I knew how significant that was in draft terms but it didn't play out in NFL or FF terms. The top five picks RBs were far from studs with only Ronnie Brown experiencing a degree of success. The best RBs were, Gore, Barber, and Jacobs, so that draft showed the hit-miss aspect of focusing too intently on the top picks/prospects.
In 2006 there were only 17 RBs taken:
2006
1 1 2 2 Reggie Bush Saints USC
2 1 21 21 Laurence Maroney Patriots Minnesota
3 1 27 27 DeAngelo Williams Panthers Memphis
4 1 30 30 Joseph Addai Colts Louisiana State
5 2 13 45 LenDale White Titans USC
6 2 28 60 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars UCLA
... The NFL got it right where the top six RBs were the best of the bunch but Lo Maroney has been a bust so far. Bush never lived up to the hype but he's found his niche. DeAngelo finally came thru last year but Addai seems to be fading. MJD was easily the best value and arguably the best FF back so once again the top backs were over valued by the fantasy world.
The success of MJD and the cream at the top with Adrian Peterson coming out boosted the NFL's intest in RBs in 2007 because 25 RBs were taken:
2007
1 1 7 7 Adrian Peterson Vikings Oklahoma
2 1 12 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills California
3 2 17 49 Kenny Irons Bengals Auburn
4 2 18 50 Chris Henry Titans Arizona
5 2 20 52 Brian Leonard Rams Rutgers
6 2 31 63 Brandon Jackson Packers Nebraska
7 3 7 71 Lorenzo Booker Dolphins Florida State
8 3 27 90 Tony Hunt Eagles Penn State
9 3 30 93 Garrett Wolfe Bears Northern Illinois
10 4 1 100 Michael Bush Raiders Louisville
... The NFL and fantasy world collided in 07 as AP and Lynch both hit. AP's success should be the rule and not the exception but the facts don't seem to bear out that the top RB taken off the NFL and FF boards succeed as they did in 2007.
The duel backfields and 07 success fueled the RB desire in 2008 as 27 RBs were taken:
2008
1 1 4 4 Darren McFadden Raiders Arkansas
2 1 13 13 Jonathan Stewart Panthers Oregon
3 1 22 22 Felix Jones Cowboys Arkansas
4 1 23 23 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers Illinois
5 1 24 24 Chris Johnson Titans East Carolina
6 2 13 44 Matt Forte Bears Tulane
7 2 24 55 Ray Rice Ravens Rutgers
8 3 1 64 Kevin Smith Lions Central Florida
9 3 6 69 Jacob Hester Chargers Louisiana State
10 3 10 73 Jamaal Charles Chiefs Texas
11 3 26 89 Steve Slaton Texans West Virginia
12 4 23 122 Tashard Choice Cowboys Georgia Tech
13 5 4 139 Ryan Torain Broncos Arizona State
14 5 11 146 Jerome Felton Lions Furman
15 5 14 149 Timothy Hightower Cardinals Richmond
... Stewart/Johnson/Forte/Smith/and Slaton enjoyed some degree of success but the top back didn't come close to equalling Adrian Peterson's success. Also, right now, their appears to be a GLUT of un or under tapped RB talent in the league and we're also seeing many teams going with split backfields and NICHE backs, like third down and goal line specialists. That philosophy fits well for guys like Reggie Bush who doesn't run well between the tackles and goes down far too easily but works well in space and sneakily gets his yards via the air plus working the edges on the gound. Other guys have to find their niches.
So we come to this year's RB class. Twenty-two RBs were taken so its a dip from the previous two years. Their doesn't appear to be as much enthusiasm for RBs and this year's top back didn't go in the top ten like AP or McFadden:
2009
1 1 12 12 Knowshon Moreno Broncos Georgia
2 1 27 27 Donald Brown Colts Connecticut
3 1 31 31 Chris Wells Cardinals Ohio State
4 2 21 53 LeSean McCoy Eagles Pittsburgh
5 3 1 65 Shonn Greene Jets Iowa
6 3 10 74 Glen Coffee 49ers Alabama
7 4 11 111 Mike Goodson Panthers Texas A&M
8 4 28 128 Tony Fiammetta Panthers Syracuse
9 4 29 129 Andre Brown Giants North Carolina State
... I understand why fantasy football favors RBs over WRs due to the fact that if you unearth a stud RB it means that you are that much ahead of the rest of the pack but stumbling upon a true stud WR holds the same value. Their really are few true stud WRs and they are much harder to find because their are normally AT LEAST two WRs on the field for each offensive snap and up to four. A stud WR will always be on the field in nearly every offensive package.
So more WRs get drafted.
In 2004 31 WRs were drafted but only ONE turned into a true stud WR:
2004
1 1 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh
... 31 taken with only one true stud and that was the first guy taken, LJ.
In 2005 there were 31 WRs taken again:
2005
1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan
2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina
3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC
4 1 21 21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas
5 1 22 22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma
6 1 27 27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham
... The best of the bunch is still being determined but the best individual season, so far, has come to BE and he was the top WR taken. Roddy White is closing in but BE can easily regain the top billing from this group and I think he will.
In 2006 34 WRs were taken and their was one true stud but the top WR taken has turned out very good.
2006
1 1 25 25 Santonio Holmes Steelers Ohio State
2 2 4 36 Chad Jackson Patriots Florida
3 2 12 44 Sinorice Moss Giants Miami (FL)
4 2 20 52 Greg Jennings Packers Western Michigan
5 2 25 57 Devin Hester Bears Miami (FL)
6 3 14 78 Travis Wilson Browns Oklahoma
7 3 18 82 Derek Hagan Dolphins Arizona State
8 3 20 84 Brandon Williams 49ers Wisconsin
9 3 26 90 Maurice Stovall Buccaneers Notre Dame
10 3 31 95 Willie Reid Steelers Florida State
11 4 3 100 Michael Robinson 49ers Penn State
12 4 6 103 Brad Smith Jets Missouri
13 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers Packers Texas Christian
14 4 12 109 Jason Avant Eagles Michigan
15 4 14 111 Demetrius Williams Ravens Oregon
16 4 18 115 Will Blackmon Packers Boston College
17 4 22 119 Brandon Marshall Broncos Central Florida
... Brandon Marshall has been the one true stud WR and he was the 17th WR plucked from the board but Santonio is a solid WR in his own right and Marshall is a head case but he is a stud.
In 2007 only one true stud WR has surfaced so far:
2007
1 1 2 2 Calvin Johnson Lions Georgia Tech
... CJ the top WR.
2008 was unique in that NO WRs were taken in the first round so obviously no top drafted WR would or could emerge with a top NFL pick to become a stud. Two undersized guys did emerge from the second round but neither are or will every become true #1 NFL WRs hence they never will be true stud FF WRs. 35 WRs taken:
2008
1 2 2 33 Donnie Avery Rams Houston
2 2 3 34 Devin Thomas Redskins Michigan State
3 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson Packers Kansas State
4 2 10 41 James Hardy Bills Indiana
5 2 11 42 Eddie Royal Broncos Virginia Tech
6 2 15 46 Jerome Simpson Bengals Coastal Carolina
7 2 18 49 DeSean Jackson Eagles California
... That brings us up to this year:
2009
1 1 7 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey Raiders Maryland
2 1 10 10 Michael Crabtree 49ers Texas Tech
3 1 19 19 Jeremy Maclin Eagles Missouri
4 1 22 22 Percy Harvin Vikings Florida
5 1 29 29 Hakeem Nicks Giants North Carolina
6 1 30 30 Kenny Britt Titans Rutgers
7 2 4 36 Brian Robiskie Browns Ohio State
... Six first rounders and Biskie a high second rounder.
I think its obvious that one guy is head and shoulders better than the rest and is a legitimate threat to become a true-stud NFL #1 WR and a true-stud FF wide out and I think Crabtree's chances to succeeed are far and away better than any of the top drafted RBs and I still don't like Moreno but I'm sitting on the third pick in our rookie draft and I don't think I have a shot to nab him so I'm looking at one of the top RBs but I'd prefer to have Crabby but that's just my humble opinion but I think I made a solid case to support my opinion.
=====
My skepticism stems from following the lemmings off the cliff and taking a litanny of busted first round RBs and re-evaluating the wisdom of going for the top ranked WR if one is head and shoulders above the rest.
Many here play PPR and already have Crabtree atop their rookie draft lists but for non-PPR rookie drafties they may want to take another look at Crabby.
