Rookie draft for IDPs where will they go? (1 Viewer)

[NorrisB]

1. Darren McFadden, RB 69% (Stewart 25%)

2. Jonathan Stewart, RB 64% (Mendenhall 16%)

3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB 45% (Jones 40%)

4. Felix Jones, RB 65% (Rice 12%)

5. Ray Rice, RB 57% (Charles 15%)

Tie 6. Jamaal Charles, RB 31% (Smith 27%)

Kevin Smith, RB 27% (Ryan 12%)

8. Matt Ryan, QB 20% (Slaton 16%)

9. Steve Slaton, RB 16% (Kelly 14%)

10. Malcolm Kelly, WR 31% (Johnson/Brohm 12%)

11. Desean Jackson, WR 25% (Johnson 19%)

12. Brian Brohm, QB 34% (Johnson 29%)

13. Chris Johnson, RB 32% (Bowman 25%)

14. Adarius Bowman, WR 35% (Manningham 17%)

15. Early Doucet, WR 61% runoff (Manningham 39%)

16. Mario Manningham, WR 39% runoff

17. James Hardy, WR 29% (Woodson, Sweed 23%)

18. Andre Woodson, QB 43% (Sweed 24%)

19. Limas Sweed, WR 41% (Hart 28%)

20. Mike Hart, RB 29% (Forsett 11%)

21. Chad Henne, QB 21% (Forsett 18%)

22. Matt Forte, RB 31% (Forsett 23%)

23. Justin Forsett, RB 47% (Bennett 19%)

Basically in a standard IDP where do you think the rookie IDPs will go next year, how do this crop compare with Beason/Willis/Poz of last year?

 

[MAC_32]

how do this crop compare with Beason/Willis/Poz of last year?

Rivers/Connor/Lofton does not measure up to last year's class, and you forgot to add David Harris to last year's crop. All four of them are better players than anyone in this year's class. Although in the right spot I am digging me some Curtis Lofton. I won't venture a guess on where they'll go and in what order until after the draft.

 

[zeuster]

Guessing Rivers to be the first off the board. Maybe to the Bengals at #9 unless one of the top DL fall that far. Read some rumors that the Broncos were interested in Connor, but could just be pre-draft smoke.

Don't see any with the immediate impact that Willis,Beason, or Harris had.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Given the amazing performances by last year's rookies (Willis, Beason and Harris), people will go hunting for LB's earlier than normal in '08. Memories are short in FF and the hit-miss ratio for LB's over the past two drafts have been pretty dang good.

2006

Willis

Timmons

Beason

Poz

Harris

2005

Hawk

Sims

Greeway

Carpenter

Ryans

Howard

D Jackson

McIntosh

If it wasn't for David Bowe last year, you may have seen the WR position get pushed down further in this years' rookies drafts. Over the past two drafts, only Holmes, Jennings and Bowe have truly emerged. With that being said, none of the WR's have had a Patrick Willis-like impact on the NFL (...and FF fans). The same can be said for QB's (outside of Cutler and maybe Young). Leinhart, Russell and Quinn have not exactly shocked the world.

If you want LB's this year...draft 'em earlier than normal. You'll probably see some WR's and QB's who are normally drafted before LB's fall thru guys like Rivers, Connor and Highsmith.

 

[redman]

Here are the first three rounds of the last few drafts from my dynasty PPR league (14 teams; 40 roster spots; start 11 IDP's; 8 round rookie draft), with IDP's bolded:

2007:

1.01 - Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

1.02 - Calvin DET WR

1.03 - Marshawn BUF RB

1.04 - Rice, Sidney MIN WR

1.05 - Jackson, Brandon GBP RB

1.06 - Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

1.07 - Meachem, Robert NOS WR

1.08 - Russell, JaMarcus OAK QB

1.09 - Quinn, Brady CLE QB

1.10 - Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR

1.11 - Jarrett, Dwayne CAR WR

1.12 - Irons, Kenny CIN RB

1.13 - Stanton, Drew DET QB

1.14 - Bush, Michael RB OAK

2.01 15. Olsen, Greg CHI TE

2.02 16. Willis, Patrick SFO LB

2.03 17. Ginn Jr., Ted MIA WR

2.04 18. Henry, Chris TEN RB

2.05 19. Davis, Craig SDC WR

2.06 20. Booker, Lorenzo MIA RB

2.07 21. Smith, Steve NYG WR

2.08 22. Davis, Chris TEN WR

2.09 23. Posluszny, Paul BUF LB

2.10 24. Miller, Zach OAK TE

2.11 25. Hunt, Tony PHI RB

2.12 26. Landry, LaRon WAS S

2.13 27. Beason, Jon CAR LB

2.14 28. Beck, John MIA QB

3.01 29. Adams, Gaines TBB DE

3.02 30. Anderson, Jamaal ATL DE

3.03 31. Meriweather, Brandon NEP S

3.04 32. Timmons, Lawrence PIT LB

3.05 33. Harris, David NYJ LB

3.06 34. Davis, Buster ARI LB

3.07 35. Spencer, Anthony DAL DE

3.08 36. Kolb, Kevin PHI QB

3.09 37. Hill, Jason SFO WR

3.10 38. Piscitelli, Sabby TBB S

3.11 39. Pittman, Antonio NOS RB

3.12 40. Okoye, Amobi HOU DT

3.13 41. Leonard, Brian STL RB

3.14 42. Walker, Mike JAC WR

2006:

1.01 Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans

1.02 Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis

1.03 DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina

1.04 Laurence Maroney, RB, New England

1.05 LenDale White, RB, Tennessee

1.06 Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona

1.07 Jay Cutler, QB, Denver

1.08 Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco

1.09 Vince Young, QB, Tennessee

1.10 Chad Jackson, WR, Denver

1.11 Jerrious Norwood, RB, Atlanta

1.12 Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh

1.13 AJ Hawk, LB, Green Bay

1.14 Ernie Sims, LB, Detroit

2.01 Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay

2.02 Mercedes Lewis, TE, Jacksonville

2.03 Sinorice Moss, WR, New York Giants

2.04 Mario Williams, DE, Houston

2.05 Bobby Carpenter, LB, Dallas

2.06 Brian Calhoun, RB, Detroit

2.07 Demeco Ryans, LB, Houston

2.08 Maurice Drew, RB, Jacksonville

2.09 D'Qwell Jackson, LB, Cleveland

2.10 Michael Huff, S/CB, Oakland

2.11 Chad Greenway, LB, Minnesota

2.12 Maurice Stovall, WR, Tampa Bay

2.13 Demetrius Williams, WR, Baltimore

2.14 Manny Lawson, LB, San Francisco

3.01 Pope, Leonard ARI TE

3.02 Kiwanuka, Mathias NYG DE

3.03 Clemens, Kellen NYJ QB

3.04 Whitner, Donte BUF S

3.05 Fasano, Anthony DAL TE

3.06 Washington, Leon NYJ RB

3.07 Scheffler, Tony DEN TE

3.08 Hagan, Derek MIA WR

3.09 Avant, Jason PHI WR

3.10 Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland

3.11 Joe Klopfenstein, TE, St. Louis

3.12 Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota

3.13 Tamba Hali, DE, Kansas City

3.14 Roger McIntosh, LB, Washington

2005:

1.1 Ronnie Brown RB MIA

1.2 Carnell "Cadillac" Williams RB TB

1.3 Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland

1.4 Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago

1.5 JJ. Arrington, RB, AZ

1.6 Troy Williamson, WR MIN

1.7 Matt Jones, WR, JAX

1.8 Eric Shelton, RB CAR

1.9 Mark Clayton BAL WR

1.10 Frank Gore SFO RB

1.11 Alex Smith SF QB

1.12 Reggie Brown PHI WR

1.13 Roddy White ATL WR

1.14 Ciatrick Fason MIN RB

2.1 Heath Miller PIT TE

2.2 Marion Barber III DAL RB

2.3 Vernand Morency HOU RB

2.4 Vincent Jackson SD WR

2.5 Aaron Rodgers GB QB

2.6 Jason Campbell QB WAS

2.7 Derrick Johnson LB KCC

2.8 DeMarcus Ware LB/DE DAL

2.9 Shawne Merriman SD LB

2.10 Mark Bradley CHI WR

2.11 Ryan Moats, RB, PHI

2.12 Terrance Murphy, WR GB

2.13 Brandon Jacobs WR NYG

2.14 Fred Gibson WR PIT

3.1 Charlie Frye QB CLE

3.2 David Pollack DE CIN

3.3 Jerome Mathis WR HOU

3.4 Erasmus James, DE, MIN

3.5 Craphonse Thorpe WR KCC

3.6 Andrew Walter QB OAK

3.7 Thomas Davis S CAR

3.8 Adrian McPherson QB NO

3.9 Antrel Rolle CB ARI

3.10 Kyle Orton QB CHI

3.11 Adam 'Pacman' Jones CB TEN

3.12 Damien Nash RB TEN

3.13 Barrett Ruud LB TB

3.14 Chris Henry WR CIN

Median of 1st IDP used on pick: 16Mean: 16.67

Mean/median of IDP's taken per round:

Round 1: .67/0

Round 2: 3.67/3

Round 3: 5.67/4

This year's draft profile, at least at this early date, looks most like last year's. The 1st round offensive talent looks deep, but the defensive talent does not necessarily jump out at you for IDP purposes. I'd expect an IDP to be taken in most leagues no sooner than around pick 16-18, which is early to middle second round in most leagues.

 

[Tick]

My sig has some useful stats from the hordes of Zealots rookie drafts over the past couple of years.

 

[J Giles Band]

Guessing Rivers to be the first off the board. Maybe to the Bengals at #9 unless one of the top DL fall that far.

I'm not sure where you're getting this... but according to every source I've seen no one has Rivers even close to the top 20. And that's after a fairly impressive Senior Bowl. The end of the 1st round (25-30) has been mentioned for him as the best case scenario with the 2nd round being just as likely.I understand surprises happen... but this sounds like a stretch. On the other hand, the Bengals would have to be elated if his USC teammate Sedrick Ellis fell to them. Hands down the best player at the Senior Bowl and an absolute monster.

 

[sportsmonkey_j]

guess youre not looking too deep. Here are some sources for you.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockdraft.html

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/mock_draft.htm

http://www.thefootballexpert.com/abromowitzmockdraft.html

http://www.thefootballexpert.com/coxmockdraft.html

http://walterfootball.com/draft2008.php

http://www.draftinsiders.com/node/200

just to name a few.

Guessing Rivers to be the first off the board. Maybe to the Bengals at #9 unless one of the top DL fall that far.

I'm not sure where you're getting this... but according to every source I've seen no one has Rivers even close to the top 20. And that's after a fairly impressive Senior Bowl. The end of the 1st round (25-30) has been mentioned for him as the best case scenario with the 2nd round being just as likely.I understand surprises happen... but this sounds like a stretch. On the other hand, the Bengals would have to be elated if his USC teammate Sedrick Ellis fell to them. Hands down the best player at the Senior Bowl and an absolute monster.

 

[J Giles Band]

Thanks for the links. Good stuff.

It will be interesting to see which of the "experts" are right on this one. I'm still betting late 1st.