Rookie Draft - going against the consensus order (1 Viewer)

[jwb]

I was talking to a leaguemate earlier, and the topic of taking someone at 1.03 to replace someone traded came up, and I said "why not just take a WR there?". And basically I was told "are you nuts? I wouldn't take a WR there". The reasoning was not that a (non-crabtree) WR wasn't a good pick in this draft, it was that "I could trade down and get one later".

It got me thinking. If you were sitting at 1.02 and/or 1.03, and weren't in love with any RB's, and (say) Harvin was drafted in the first by a WR-needy team that may also use him in a quasi-CJ3 type role... well, why NOT draft him there if you like him? Especially in a PPR league.

I mean, does the draft have to go Crabtree at one, and then the next three being Moreno, McCoy, and Wells in some order? From recent chats / trade talk and such, it almost seems like it does - people just expect it to go that way, and trade accordingly. Somebody at 1.03 and wanting Harvin (just using him as an example, btw) could likely trade to 1.05 and feel pretty safe.

I'm wondering why that is.

I did this last year - I wanted K Smith in the league where I had the 1.02 pick. I "knew" I could get him at 1.04, so that's what I did - traded 1.02 for 1.04 and other stuff. But I'd like to think I would have had the stones to take him at 1.02 had I stayed there (we'll never know). And if someone sniped him before my 1.04, I'd have been upset with myself.

I don't have a first rounder in most of my leagues, but in one league, I do have the 1.02, so this line of thinking is interesting to me.

Your thoughts?

 

[Birdie048]

Talent at that level should be the first thought. Situation and need follow.

I like the idea of trading down to fill the need, but you also have to consider the "talent" lost in you move.

The drop off from Wells to Peerman is too much to make a major move, but if you get another need filled too, that's a better package.

 

[FUBAR]

My leagues are pretty active so I'll almost always be able to trade down if I want to. Only question would be whether the extra pick/player is worth risking my target.

I've reached for a player before, if I think he's better than my other options and can't trade down, sure I will take my guy.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

lots of talk about this in a another thread.

I must have missed the memo that said take Crabtree #1 regardless. Sitting at #2 in a couple leagues this year that makes me happy

To me I would take at least 2 RB's before Crabtree

 

[Christo]

Talent at that level should be the first thought. Situation and need follow.

Talent is my only thought for rookie drafts.

 

[twr]

i went with matt ryan at 1.5, when most people had him projected at the bottom of the 1st. only player im sorry i missed on was cj3, who i thought would not make it in the nfl. i guess for every homerun there is a strike out... weeeeeeee

 

[Spike]

I like the thought process expoused here.

I cannot think anyone - if they were being honest - is not able to say "Damn, I traded down from pick X to pick Y thinking I could get player Z. Why didn't I just take him???"

 

[massraider]

I mean, does the draft have to go Crabtree at one, and then the next three being Moreno, McCoy, and Wells in some order? From recent chats / trade talk and such, it almost seems like it does - people just expect it to go that way, and trade accordingly.

Not really much to do with your point, but I think the above will change. One of those backs will wind up in a good situation, Arizona etc., and will leapfrog Crabtree, especially if Crabs winds up in Oakland.

 

[MAC_32]

I always draft the highest player available on my board.

Trading down is always an option, there are too many 'if scenarios' to get it down to an exact science. I'll just give an example, I traded into pick 2.01 last year hoping to get Curtis Lofton, he went before me but Felix Jones fell. Jones was not the highest player on my board and in fact no one was really a value pick for me in that spot (highest available RB - Hightower, highest available WR - Jordy Nelson, highest available TE - Keller, highest available QB - Henne, highest available defensive player - Mayo) so I traded the pick for Brandon Jackson and a 3rd round pick where I was able to get Jordy Nelson, the highest available WR on my board from before.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Trading from outside the first tier (1.05 or lower) to within the first tier is expensive. So I would think if you were sitting at 1.02, you could trade down to 1.05 and get pretty good value, while at the same time being pretty safe that you'll still get Harvin. Even if you don't get him, you have to be willing to admit that you might be wrong about a player. Just because you like Harvin more than a bunch of other guys doesn't necessarily make it so, so you could end up winning both ways (getting a guy that ends up being better than him, and extra stuff on top of it).

That said, it's always funny to me how people sticker value these guys as if the difference in a guy rated slightly higher than another is that they'll get 80 yards and 1 TD less every season. We know that's not how it works. Realistically, it's a difference between their chance to be great and their chance to be a bust. Harvin plus a 2nd round pick might be slightly more "valuable" than Maclin, but if in the end Maclin ends up being a pro bowler and Harvin a flop then that's a much bigger difference than a 2nd round pick makes up for.

Basically, I would say that if you get something really worthwhile (I would NOT consider something like a 2nd round pick worthwhile) then go ahead and trade down. If you're getting something that's basically just a throw-in, or if you're 100% sure about the guy and would just kick yourself forever if you missed out on him and he ended up being great, then stand pat and make the "bad" value pick that could end up actually being a good one.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I take my guy.

Last year for example I was sitting at 1.5, 1.6, and 1.12.

Note: We draft pre-NFL draft.

It went- Dmac, Stewart, Mendy, Ray Rice.

So who is the trendy pick? Felix Jones

1.5- I took Forte

1.6- Jamaal Charles

Yeh I missed out on CJ3....but I think Charles will thrive once KC gets built up and he puts some weight on.

1.12-I took Desean Jackson....while the trendy pick would've been Devin Thomas.

Trust yourself.

 

[RabidSniper4]

I was actually thinking about trading down from the 1.2. I have Thomas Jones, Frank Gore and Michael Turner as running backs however weak at WR and wanted to grab Crabtree but if he goes number one I cannot see drafting a rb. I am not sure if I should reach for another WR at that point. Might trade down or go on BAP. WHo knows maybe I could pull of a trade during the season with a RB.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

I take my guy.

Last year for example I was sitting at 1.5, 1.6, and 1.12.

Note: We draft pre-NFL draft.

It went- Dmac, Stewart, Mendy, Ray Rice.

So who is the trendy pick? Felix Jones

1.5- I took Forte

1.6- Jamaal Charles

Yeh I missed out on CJ3....but I think Charles will thrive once KC gets built up and he puts some weight on.

1.12-I took Desean Jackson....while the trendy pick would've been Devin Thomas.

Trust yourself.

Felix Jones didn't go before Forte in most leagues IMO. In the dynasty leagues I'm in the two went like this -Champagne Classic

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

Fantasy Legends I

1.04 - Jones

1.06 - Forte

Fantasy Legends II

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

Fantasy Legends III

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

HyperActive - Hyper Conf

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

HyperActive - Active Conf

1.04 - Jones

1.06 - Forte

HyperActive 3 Startup Draft - Hyper Conf

5.05 - Forte

6.03 - Jones

HyperActive 3 Startup Draft - Active Conf

6.01 - Forte

6.04 - Jones

Misfits and Outlaws I

1.04 - Forte

1.06 - Jones

 

[twr]

mine went

dmac

mendy

stewart

forte

matt ryan

chris johnson

felix

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I take my guy.

Last year for example I was sitting at 1.5, 1.6, and 1.12.

Note: We draft pre-NFL draft.

It went- Dmac, Stewart, Mendy, Ray Rice.

So who is the trendy pick? Felix Jones

1.5- I took Forte

1.6- Jamaal Charles

Yeh I missed out on CJ3....but I think Charles will thrive once KC gets built up and he puts some weight on.

1.12-I took Desean Jackson....while the trendy pick would've been Devin Thomas.

Trust yourself.

Felix Jones didn't go before Forte in most leagues IMO. In the dynasty leagues I'm in the two went like this -Champagne Classic

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

Fantasy Legends I

1.04 - Jones

1.06 - Forte

Fantasy Legends II

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

Fantasy Legends III

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

HyperActive - Hyper Conf

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

HyperActive - Active Conf

1.04 - Jones

1.06 - Forte

HyperActive 3 Startup Draft - Hyper Conf

5.05 - Forte

6.03 - Jones

HyperActive 3 Startup Draft - Active Conf

6.01 - Forte

6.04 - Jones

Misfits and Outlaws I

1.04 - Forte

1.06 - Jones

Reread that my league drafts before the NFL draft....show me those rankings.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

I take my guy.

Last year for example I was sitting at 1.5, 1.6, and 1.12.

Note: We draft pre-NFL draft.

It went- Dmac, Stewart, Mendy, Ray Rice.

So who is the trendy pick? Felix Jones

1.5- I took Forte

1.6- Jamaal Charles

Yeh I missed out on CJ3....but I think Charles will thrive once KC gets built up and he puts some weight on.

1.12-I took Desean Jackson....while the trendy pick would've been Devin Thomas.

Trust yourself.

Felix Jones didn't go before Forte in most leagues IMO. In the dynasty leagues I'm in the two went like this -Champagne Classic

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

Fantasy Legends I

1.04 - Jones

1.06 - Forte

Fantasy Legends II

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

Fantasy Legends III

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

HyperActive - Hyper Conf

1.04 - Forte

1.05 - Jones

HyperActive - Active Conf

1.04 - Jones

1.06 - Forte

HyperActive 3 Startup Draft - Hyper Conf

5.05 - Forte

6.03 - Jones

HyperActive 3 Startup Draft - Active Conf

6.01 - Forte

6.04 - Jones

Misfits and Outlaws I

1.04 - Forte

1.06 - Jones

Reread that my league drafts before the NFL draft....show me those rankings.

You're right. Pre-NFL draft, Forte was about 10th. I had the 11th and was thinking I had a shot at him.

 

[beto]

I always pay a lot of attention to the consensus and try to trade up/down. A lot depends on where your picks are positioned compared to the guys you are targeting.

 

[loose circuits]

i had 1.6 last year and knew Johnson and Felix Jones would be there. I traded down 1 spot cause most had Jones ahead. It worked out, I only got a 4th round pick in return, but it was something...

 

[Rockchild]

It's a little easier to take the guy you want when you're in the middle of the first round as opposed to the first 2 or 3 spots. If you're supremely confident in your guy and can't move down at all then take him and live with it. However, you are leaving perceived value on the table but if you can't trade out of the slot it makes the decision very difficult. Someone taking CJohnson or Forte at the 1 or 2 spot would have done alright but probably would have been laughed at at the time.

 

[The Future Champs]

Trust yourself, and either trade down or just take your guy. There's really no point in playing FF if you just follow the herd.

 

[twr]

im in 4 dynasty leagues, and in all of them iv traded into the top 3 picks. three leagues i have the 1.1, 1 league i have the 1.3, in all three i plan on drafting moreno, even though most people wouldnt perceive him as the best choice. i see him as the #1 player in this draft in PPR, and dont want to chance someone taking him before me. in the other league where i have the 1.3, a guy is asking for two first round picks to move up 2 spots... which sadly to say, i never trade away my 1st round picks.. so ill be happy with wells/crabtree if hes taken before i choose.

 

[Donnybrook]

Trust yourself.

If your FBG name is benson_will_lead_the_way, you really shouldn't trust yourself.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

i had 1.6 last year and knew Johnson and Felix Jones would be there. I traded down 1 spot cause most had Jones ahead. It worked out, I only got a 4th round pick in return, but it was something...

Yeah, but now imagine if it hadn't worked out. Instead of having Chris Johnson, a borderline top 5 FF RB in dynasties right now, you would have Felix Jones and a 4th round pick.Again, I think trading down is worth doing if you're getting something solid in return. For a throw-in that will likely never help you at all like a 3rd or 4th round pick, it's not worth the risk, even if the risk is minor.