Rookie draft pick 1.01 (1 Viewer)

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Studs was getting moved for the 1.01 last year...and most of the time 2 STUD or a STUD rb and a real good wr....this year...seems the 1.01 has lost its flava.

Now 1.03 pick is the one most are targeting.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Still worth more than it was worth in 2005

 

[Colin Dowling]

First, if 1.03 is what people are targeting, then that means the 1.01 has plenty of value. Folks are, I guess, betting that the three big talents are Quinn, Peterson, and Johnson in some order and getting any one of the 3 is good enough. Perhaps Lynch instead of Quinn, but you get my drift.

Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

 

[BigTex]

I have this years 1.02 pick which I received for trading C. Portis, I also recieved T.Holt/Westbrook (Washington homer ) in the deal. I'm staying with the pick. I'm very satisfied with whomever falls to me there.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

First, if 1.03 is what people are targeting, then that means the 1.01 has plenty of value. Folks are, I guess, betting that the three big talents are Quinn, Peterson, and Johnson in some order and getting any one of the 3 is good enough. Perhaps Lynch instead of Quinn, but you get my drift. Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I think the 2007 1.01 does have more value than the 2005 1.01. The reason is that Benson, Brown and Caddy were all very highly rated and going somewhere 1-3 depending on preference. In this draft, if both Lynch and Peterson come out as expected, that only leaves two top RBs instead of three; thus giving more value to the first overall choice in 2007...

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

ok whos the CANT MISS prospect in this draft?

Now in a PPR dynasty i can see him going 1.01, but in a standard league most will go with the 2 rb's 1 and 2. But im not sold on them. A.Pittman might be just as good as them and can be had later.

 

[Colin Dowling]

First, if 1.03 is what people are targeting, then that means the 1.01 has plenty of value. Folks are, I guess, betting that the three big talents are Quinn, Peterson, and Johnson in some order and getting any one of the 3 is good enough. Perhaps Lynch instead of Quinn, but you get my drift. Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I think the 2007 1.01 does have more value than the 2005 1.01. The reason is that Benson, Brown and Caddy were all very highly rated and going somewhere 1-3 depending on preference. In this draft, if both Lynch and Peterson come out as expected, that only leaves two top RBs instead of three; thus giving more value to the first overall choice in 2007...

I can see the point, with regard to that. On the flip side, I'd take any of the '05 guys over Lynch, meaning if I had the 1.02 and you dangled one of them for the pick, I'd be tempted to make the deal.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Studs was getting moved for the 1.01 last year...and most of the time 2 STUD or a STUD rb and a real good wr....this year...seems the 1.01 has lost its flava.Now 1.03 pick is the one most are targeting.

There will be more hype as we get closer to the NFL draft. Save that 1.01 if you got it, it's perceived value will increase.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I'm not doing an "after the fact" analysis.Bush on draft day 06 > APeterson on draft day 07 > Brown/Benson/Caddy on draft day 05I think we can objectively say that Peterson is a better prospect now than any of the 2005 RBs were when they entered the league, just as Bush was a better prospect at this time last year than any of the 2005 RBs or Peterson

 

[Colin Dowling]

Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I'm not doing an "after the fact" analysis.Bush on draft day 06 > APeterson on draft day 07 > Brown/Benson/Caddy on draft day 05

I think we can objectively say that Peterson is a better prospect now than any of the 2005 RBs were when they entered the league, just as Bush was a better prospect at this time last year than any of the 2005 RBs or Peterson

I disagree completely. For starters, it's far too soon to tell before Peterson works out.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I'm not doing an "after the fact" analysis.Bush on draft day 06 > APeterson on draft day 07 > Brown/Benson/Caddy on draft day 05

I think we can objectively say that Peterson is a better prospect now than any of the 2005 RBs were when they entered the league, just as Bush was a better prospect at this time last year than any of the 2005 RBs or Peterson

I disagree completely. For starters, it's far too soon to tell before Peterson works out.

I'll admit I'm jumping the gun a bit, but based on what we saw of the group of Peterson, Brown, Benson, and Caddy in college, Peterson has been the most impressive. Workouts really boosted Brown's stock, Ill grant that, but I don't see workouts deflating Peterson's stock. I don't care if he runs a 4.8 and lifts the bar only 10 times, we have all seen with our own eyes that he's got a rare combo of power, speed, and moves and he's a natural runner taboot. No workout results are going to convince me otherwise.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson is a tremendous runner. And my pick in '05 to be "the best" based on my own observations was/is Williams.

That said, I think the lack of quality RBs actually devalues the pick. Unless Lynch goes somewhere choice where the team is DYING for an every down carrier, I see this draft as being 1, maybe 2 picks deep. As such, the price is going to be so unreasonably high that it's easier to just accept the fact that Peterson isn't going to be on your FF team and go on with your day.

I guess that's looking at it a little backwards though.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

i wonder if before upcoming dynasty drafts, the 1.1 pick (peterson) could be gotten for brown, cadillac or benson? i'm not sure... i think i'd rather have peterson... like colin, i also like cadillac best long term (of the 05 trio)... actually, we have to include gore in this group, & if he holds up health-wise, could emerge as best of 05 group... interestingly, even though expectations were much higher for bush, maroney, williams, addai & white in 06 group, drew may unexpectedly emerge as top pure rushing talent...

as to how they stack up, as a way of looking at relative value of top 07 & 05 pick...

i think 05 trio all came with some questions...

with benson there were questions about his speed and how well his game would translate to NFL (& these remain somewhat unanswered, as it is unclear if his inability to get on the field is more an indictment of himself, or merely a reflection of how well thomas jones has played?)...

brown & caddy had questions associated with not having to carry the load, as they shared carries in RBBC at auburn... caddy also had health & durability questions (which have somewhat resurfaced as a pro), and to a lesser extent, so did brown (bigger than caddy, but caddy isn't small, and questions about his size are imo misguided & baseless)...

perhaps peterson also has medical concerns, but there isn't as much doubt about his ability to be a bell-cow, feature RB, as he has done it for a few years...

peterson has a chance to be a special RB, and the best to come around in a few years... if he fulfills his potential, he could become one of the best RB prospect since LT (LJ, jackson & gore are pretty good, too, among others)... not sure if expectations were THAT high at this same time two years ago, for aforementioned 05 trio...

caddy did have regional supporters, if not as much national as peterson... gruden said scouts had told him caddy might have been the best RB produced in alabama prep history (bo jackson was from alabama, for context)...

i think i have to agree with bloom that peterson is more highly regarded prospect AT COMPARABLE POINT IN TIME... obviously caddy is more proven & NFL tested in that he had brilliant rookie career & peterson COULD be a bust (than again, caddy also has a bad season under his belt, & peterson doesn't so far)... that is best way to evauate worth of pick/s from 05 & 07 in relative sense, & retroactive hindsight not needed for that evaluation of their relative merits...

 

[lod2005]

Still worth more than it was worth in 2005

2005 was Frank Gore or nothing.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

In the league I have 1.1, I would not trade it for Brown, Caddy or Benson. I wouldn't even consider it. I think Peterson and Lynch have a good chance to be better than any of them.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I'm not doing an "after the fact" analysis.Bush on draft day 06 > APeterson on draft day 07 > Brown/Benson/Caddy on draft day 05I think we can objectively say that Peterson is a better prospect now than any of the 2005 RBs were when they entered the league, just as Bush was a better prospect at this time last year than any of the 2005 RBs or Peterson

Couldn't have said it better myself.It's not surprising if this year's 1.01 doesn't have the value of last year's 1.01 pick. That wouldn't be an indication of the 1.01 "losing its flava" as much as it is an indication of how highly regarded Bush was coming out, as many referred to him as the best RB prospect of the last decade. It's tough to follow that up though in a bit of a twist we once again have a better than usual RB prospect coming out in AD.I may be a bit higher on him than most but I could see 1.01 this year shooting up even more as I believe AD is a once in a decade prospect as well.

 

[Ed Wood]

Bump

 

[TwinTurbo]

I honestly think Adrian Peterson is a better NFL RB prospect than Bush. And this is after watching Bush for an entire NFL season. From a fantasy perspective, Bush would be superior in a PPR scoring format. But for a pure NFL RB, Peterson may be the best to enter the league since Tomlinson or LJ. The guy is a Stud pure and simple. He will be a Pro Bowl player for many years if he stays healthy. If I had the #1 Rookie pick, I would definitely target Peterson.

 

[Kub]

In the league I have 1.1, I would not trade it for Brown, Caddy or Benson. I wouldn't even consider it. I think Peterson and Lynch have a good chance to be better than any of them.

I think that is a common belief, and not just regarding those particular players(I agree Peterson is better, not so sure about Lynch), but in dynasty leagues in general. It is also why I believe that draft picks are usually overrated. People fall in love with the unknown and what could be. In my dynasty league last year, the pick that ended up being LenDale White was acquired for Anquan Boldin and the pick that ended up being Jay Cutler was acquired for Donovan McNabb. While I acknowledge a case can be made for Cutler over McNabb in dynasty, I'd personally feel better about my team with McNabb and Boldin instead of the young guys.I know EBF has posted about this on a few occassions, but I agree with his thinking FFers tend to overrate youth when it comes to dynasty. Some players are always building for the future, and get stuck in that mode. Young doesn't always equal good when it comes to fantasy.

 

[aDingoAteMyBaby]

Studs was getting moved for the 1.01 last year...and most of the time 2 STUD or a STUD rb and a real good wr....this year...seems the 1.01 has lost its flava.Now 1.03 pick is the one most are targeting.

If 1.3 is the dropoff, then what is the 1.4 worth and who is the 1.4 ??????

Dwayne Jarrett sure looked good this week. He might be 1.4 on the right squad.

 

[noneother]

i did just that, traded caddy, jamal lewis and darrel jackson and colston...for boldin, calvin johnson, and peterson..

 

[-OZ-]

In the league I have 1.1, I would not trade it for Brown, Caddy or Benson. I wouldn't even consider it. I think Peterson and Lynch have a good chance to be better than any of them.

I agree with Peterson. The only reason the 1.01 is less valued this year than in 06 is the injury. If AD had played all year, the hype would be as big, and I won't be surprised if by FF draft time, the 1.01 becomes as valuable this year.FWIW, the 1.02 is worth more this year than in the last few, and the 1.03 probably is as well. The reason people are trying to go for the 1.03 is they expect it to cost the least.

 

[-OZ-]

Studs was getting moved for the 1.01 last year...and most of the time 2 STUD or a STUD rb and a real good wr....this year...seems the 1.01 has lost its flava.Now 1.03 pick is the one most are targeting.

If 1.3 is the dropoff, then what is the 1.4 worth and who is the 1.4 ??????

Dwayne Jarrett sure looked good this week. He might be 1.4 on the right squad.

Agreed. Unless a top RB lands in Denver, Jarrett is my #4. Quinn would be the #4 in larger leagues.

 

[EBF]

I know EBF has posted about this on a few occassions, but I agree with his thinking FFers tend to overrate youth when it comes to dynasty. Some players are always building for the future, and get stuck in that mode. Young doesn't always equal good when it comes to fantasy.

I don't necessarily think youth is overrated, but I think people tend to give too much credit to rookies who perform well. The ADP of Bush, Jones-Drew, Maroney, DeAngelo, and Addai will reflect as much. They're next year's version of this year's Caddy and Brown. People will draft Addai over the likes of Gates and Boldin in dynasty drafts next year. That's crazy. It's generally foolish to draft a promising rookie or sophomore over a proven superstar. I only make exceptions in the case of transcendant talents like Bush, who I took at 1.03 in an initial PPR dynasty draft last season. As for the 1.01, I think it's very valuable this year. Not as much as it was last year, but certainly moreso than the Caddy/Brown/Benson, KJ/Fitzgerald/S. Jackson, and Rogers/LJ/McGahee/A. Johnson classes. This year's can't miss prospect is Calvin Johnson. Peterson and Lynch round out the top 3, with Jarrett and Ginn following close behind.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Still worth more than it was worth in 2005

Gotta disagree.In 2005 Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Bensonand JJA were garnering tons of interest and were fetching bigtime veteran players.Edit: I am speaking of the top 4 picks as a whole,if we just look at the #1 pick,then I believe the AP pick has more valuethan the top pick of 2005.

 

[EBF]

Still worth more than it was worth in 2005

Gotta disagree.In 2005 Caddy, Ronnie Brown, Bensonand JJA were garnering tons of interest and were fetching bigtime veteran players.Edit: I am speaking of the top 4 picks as a whole,if we just look at the #1 pick,then I believe the AP pick has more valuethan the top pick of 2005.

I think this group is very comparable to the 2004 crop. Adrian Peterson - Steven JacksonMarshawn Lynch - Kevin JonesCalvin Johnson - Larry FitzgeraldDwayne Jarrett - Roy WilliamsTed Ginn - Lee EvansBooker/Irons/Hunt/Bush - Julius/Tatum/Perry

 

[Demons]

Peterson has more value to me this year in the #1 spot than Bush did last year. I felt Bush was/is not an every down back. Peterson is an every down back.

Most people have been targeting him for the last two years, if they were awake. At the beginning of the year I traded for six first round picks in a twelve team Dynasty league to insure I had a shot at the first overall. I'm sitting at 1, 3, 6 and 7. I'm taking Peterson at #1, and whoever is left over at #3. Since I like Ginn, I'll probably keep the 6 and 7, unless I can get a great deal.

 

[womb]

If I am understanding the point in question correctly, which I truly believe I am,

MOST OF YOU GUYS ARE DEAD WRONG!!!

Thanks to the performances of Bush, MJD, Maroney, Addai and heck even Williams, Colston and Jennings last year the top picks in dynasty rookie drafts are WAY MORE VALUABLE this year.

The choices may not in fact be better, and probably almost noone will exchange some of those guys with 1.01, BUT as far as value goes... geezz..! Look at all the trade offers in all the rookie threads all around this board. Look and read at what people are turning down. Trust me, last year almost none of these offers were on the trading tables.

Compare the offers on the table... holding a top 3 pick this year is a lot more vaulable than what it was last year. Do not put a face on the pick and make comparisons. Look at the face value of the pick itself. To me, clear as day.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Adrian Peterson - Steven Jackson

Those that know me know I am a HUGE Steven Jackson fan. I've taken him ahead of his average draft position each of the last two years and argued feverishly on his behalf each offseason.That said, Sjax is was not half the prospect coming into the NFL that AD is.

 

[Bojang0301]

People were trading for these 1st round picks 2 years ago in preperation for APete now an injury and an average bowl game all of a sudden change the outlook... people are feeble.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Random thoughts...

I think Denver somehow gets their hands on Antonio Pittman, making him 1.01-1.02.

 

[fsufan]

i have tried to move the 1.03 for a young QB like Young or Leinart but no luck

 

[fsufan]

Second, I disagree that it has more value then in 2005. By a long shot. Just because the players in the '05 class haven't produced as necessarily expected doesn't devalue the selections after the fact.

I'm not doing an "after the fact" analysis.Bush on draft day 06 > APeterson on draft day 07 > Brown/Benson/Caddy on draft day 05

I think we can objectively say that Peterson is a better prospect now than any of the 2005 RBs were when they entered the league, just as Bush was a better prospect at this time last year than any of the 2005 RBs or Peterson

I disagree completely. For starters, it's far too soon to tell before Peterson works out.

the rookie work outs are overrated

 

[-OZ-]

i have tried to move the 1.03 for a young QB like Young or Leinart but no luck

I'm not surprised by this. Young QBs who have shown they can compete at this level are very valuable in dynasty leagues. You aren't going to get a QB as valuable as either this year, Leinart is a very good QB in a perfect situation. Nobody should be considered the next Peyton or Palmer, but Leinart has that potential.VY played exceptionally well, almost single handedly led the Titans to the playoffs. That doesn't have much to do with FF, but his owners are probably in love with him now, if they weren't before. You might be able to land a QB like Hasselbeck or Bulger, but not the young guns.