Rookie Draft War Room -- what's your plan? (1 Viewer)

[sushinsky4tsar]

What picks do you hold for your dynasty rookie and rookie/FA drafts and what are you hoping to do with them?

Right now, I only have three picks that matter in a 1QB rookie/FA; #7, #25, #28. Biggest need is a future starting RB that can take the reigns once Henry and CMC fall off. I could use a backup QB behind Mahomes. Upside to be a cheat code QB is probably most important since this might be future trade bait, though there's nothing wrong with a durable and dependable backup. I have Kelce and Goedert at TE, but I don't need to be sold on the advantage of having a top TE. I want to have the next one when Kelce falls off. I'm stacked at WR and don't want to draft one unless fantasy WR1 upside is there or the value is too good to pass up.

With the depth of this draft, I love the #25 and #28 spots. I would love to pick up additional picks in the 3rd and 4th to take advantage of it. I don't love the #7 at this point. Feels like you can make a compelling case for a half-dozen guys or more, most of which aren't worthy of what you would normally associate with a #7 overall pick. I'm definitely open to moving down later in the first round or early 2nd to pick up additional picks or assets. It seems like the glut of somewhat uninspiring options at this spot should be the worst kept secret, but maybe I can find a leaguemate dreaming of moving up for Johnston or Addison.

#7
won't be there: Bijan, Gibbs
probably won't be there, don't need him but I would take him: JSN
open to taking them, not excited about either at 1.7, but there's enough to like: Johnston, Charbonnet

I'm guessing all five of these guys are off the board. Johnston or Charbonnet might be there and it will probably put me in a bit of a bind if they are. They're probably the most sensible selections. The upside is there with Johnston, but I also think there's massive bust potential. Busting at a position of great strength isn't what I dreamed of for this pick. Charbonnet, I see a bit of a plodder when I watch his highlights. There's no question that he would be a safe pick at a position of need. Luckily, I think this might be a case where landing spot and draft capital will tell me what I need to know. However, if he falls to #7 then it might be under a somewhat marginal outcome.

IF those five are all off the board, I need two guys that I'm comfortable rolling the dice on. If I can't stomach Johnston or Charbonnet, then 3rd or 4th options are needed.

#1 Option: Spears - I think he'll be there and I think this is my pick if the draft was today. The size isn't ideal for a rb selection at this spot, but we're north of 200 and Waldman absolutely loves the guy. If the NFL loves him to the point of a late 2nd round pick, he might not even be there for me.

#2 Option: Richardson - I wouldn't have believed that I would have any QB as an option at this spot two weeks ago. There's probably some recency bias for winning the underwear olympics or maybe I'm listening to too much Ray Garvin, but I can't ignore all-time athletic testing at the QB position. Considering that the options at #7 aren't exactly overwhelming at the RB spot, and I'm not sold and don't need QJ or Addison, this might be the year to take a swing on a potential cheat code QB. I would have a hard time passing on Stroud or Young if it was a super-flex. In a 1QB with Mahomes already on roster, I think Richardson is the QB I want.

#3 Option: Kincaid -- This is my TE1 in the draft. I'm not sure that I believe the Kelce comps, but if he's 90% of what Ertz was at his peak he would be more than worthy of the 1.7 in this draft. A week ago I would have said that this is the favorite to be my selection. The medicals, along with the sensibility of waiting until #25/#28 to go after one of the other excellent TEs are why I'm probably now leaning against planting a flag as early as the 1.7.

#4 Option: Achane -- This is the guy I have been excited about at this spot for most of 2023. I have come to the conclusion that I just can't take a RB this small this high in the draft. I really wanted to talk myself into it.

Others that I'm considering, but will probably have to pass: Flowers, Addison, Kendre Miller

#25 / #28

The twelve names above will certainly be off the board by #25.

Would run to the podium for any of these guys that fall to #25, but they won't: Evans, Tucker, Downs, Stroud, Young

Not really a target, but I'm expecting them to be selected by the end of rnd 2: Hyatt, Boutee, Mayer

Thrilled that one of these guys will be there at #25 -- will be giddy if I can get a second at #28: Musgrave, Chase Brown, Bigsby, Roschon Johnson, Levis

Otherwise, my three best remaining options for #28: Gray, Vaughn, Rice

Beyond:

These guys make me want to acquire an additional 3rd or 4th: Kraft, Washington, Laporta, Abanikanda, McBride, McIntosh, Mims, Charlie Jones, Dell, Tillman, Reed, Hull

That's 40 names that have no business being there for my last pick at #60. The scary thing is that with a handful of interesting free agents and Kicker, DST selections mixed in, there's a really good chance that one or two of these guys in this last group falls to me at #60 or goes undrafted.

 

[Birdie048]

Nice idea to pose... don't have time to go into details .. work day starting ...

12 Team 1 QB / 1RB / 3 WR / 1 TE + 2 Flex (0.5 PPR / 1.0 PPR TE) --> Complete REBUILD underway (also have 3 x 1st & 2 x 2nds in 2024)

1.01 = Bijan (no brainer)
1.07 = If WR falls, JSN, QJ, Addison, otherwise, Flowers or Hyatt is my target
1.08 = RB2 Zach Charbonnet is my target, but team at 1.06 needs RB & I expect him to be gone, So WR Downs or Hyatt pending draft capital, Pro-Day # & landing
1.09 = Whatever TE1, Kincaid or Mayer pending landing spot
2.01 = QB target CJ, AR, Young in order pending landing
2.03 = Kendre Miller, Chase Brown or Tyjae Spears if I missed Z Charbonnet
2.08 = QB2 whoever is left
2.09 = Mims, Hutchinson or TE2 Musgrave or Washington

 

[smbkrypt24]

Superflex league. 12 team. QB, SF, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex.

1.01- Bijan
1.02- Young
1.03- Stroud
1.04- JSN
1.05- Richardson/Gibbs
1.09- Addison/Johnston/Charbonnet
2.01- Levis/Mayer/Downs/Evans/Brown
2.02- Levis/Mayer/Downs/Evans/Brown
2.08, 3.03, 4.02, 4.08, 4.11- ??

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Superflex league. 12 team. QB, SF, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex.

1.01- Bijan
1.02- Young
1.03- Stroud
1.04- JSN
1.05- Richardson/Gibbs
1.09- Addison/Johnston/Charbonnet
2.01- Levis/Mayer/Downs/Evans/Brown
2.02- Levis/Mayer/Downs/Evans/Brown
2.08, 3.03, 4.02, 4.08, 4.11- ??

This one screams Bijan @ 1.5. Let the guy at 6 hyperventilate a bit right before pulling the rug out from under him.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Superflex league. 12 team. QB, SF, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex.

1.01- Bijan
1.02- Young
1.03- Stroud
1.04- JSN
1.05- Richardson/Gibbs
1.09- Addison/Johnston/Charbonnet
2.01- Levis/Mayer/Downs/Evans/Brown
2.02- Levis/Mayer/Downs/Evans/Brown
2.08, 3.03, 4.02, 4.08, 4.11- ??

This one screams Bijan @ 1.5. Let the guy at 6 hyperventilate a bit right before pulling the rug out from under him.

If I was 100% making a selection at every pick I would pull this. But trading out is still an option

 

[Crippler]

Let’s do different and not as exciting

15 team SF, TE Pemium, IDP. Start 11 O and D. We only need to start 1-1-2+1-1 and then tons of Flex. Can start up to 2-4-6-4-4. Need nothing really. TE weakest unit with Friermuth, Engram, Fant, Smith. QB, RB, WR, PK, DL, LB probably best units. Have just enough roster room for picks

Pick 18. Looking at TE for sure. With SF the 4 QB, Robinson, Gibbs, Johnson, Addison, JSN, Kincaid, Mayer will be gone. That is only 11. Now chance Charbonnet, and another RB go. Flowers, Hyatt, Downs, Washington . That would leave me taking Luke Musgrave but like Rice or Boutte and 5th RB might land in nice spot. KC, Arizona, Philly, Miami, Denver, Carolina, Atlanta, Cincy. Plus Hendon Hooker. Also consider Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Luke Schoonmaker and 2 kids from combine mallory and Kunt. The team behind me has a nice team but only James Cook at RB and hoping Rodgers traded to give Jackson/Love combo. Needs TE also. he has next 3 picks

Pick 21. With the other team making picks, I am probably looking at RB6, Will Boutte really drop this far. Can I let him go by. Should I take chance on Hendon Hooker. This pick is definitely going O as Tillman, Scott, Wheaton-Ford, Hutchinsonplus the TES are going to be available. I think this is a very deep draft. Also could combine with pick 36 to move up

pick 30. If O guy drops,then will jump. Probably go LB as it is my favorite D spot to hoard. Only 1 or 2 will be gone with list of Simpson, Sanders, Campbell, Sewell, Tootoo, Henley Or Overshown.I see me taking Jack Campbell

Pick 36. Use to move up or grab a 2nd LB like Dayton Henley. Of course this is also great draft for DL and could grab one of those guys. Especially with new MFL rules, you know all these edge guys will be designated DE and the top of the draft loaded at this position. Anderson, Murphy, Wilson, Carter, Van Ness, smith, Kancey. Going to be guys as see 30 plus nice O to be had come May

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

14 team 1QB non PPR start 9.

I sold off most of my older assets in season and have given myself a two year window to become competitive. This will be the start of year 1. I have similar sort of capital in 24 as I do this year. My general ethos will be around building a stable of solid WR's to establish a baseline of weekly points and adding RB's as and when I feel I've got my core ready.

1.03 - 1.04 - 1.06 - 2.06 - 3.09 - 4.03 - 4.13

1.03 - My pick will be JSN. Wherever he lands, wherever anyone else lands. He is head and shoulders the best WR for me, and I would pick him above Gibbs as well. I know Bijan will go 1.01 and I'm almost certain Gibbs will go 1.02.

1.04 - Depends entirely on landing spots for players. Addison or QJ land with a potentially elite QB as a WR1 it'll be hard to not take either, though I do not like QJ at all. I have also tentatively explored trading this pick. Devonta Smith for this and a few seconds over the next few years one potential. 1.04 and 2.06 for 1.08 and a 24 1st another. No need to think about this too much until we know where people have landed.

1.06 - Again, much like the 1.04, this pick will depend on where players land. I have explored trading this and tentatively got 1.12 and 2.01 as a potential. It entirely depends on where the tier breaks divide once we have landing spots. If I was forced to use it now, I'd trade it, I have a notable tier break at 1.05 currently.

2.06 - Too much to really sort out before we have any idea who could potentially fall this far. Abanikanda, Boutte, Tucker etc, could all be long gone if they receive good capital. One things for sure, if I'm forced to use it, it'll be on a WR or RB. I suspect this pick will be packaged and sold though, in one of the aforementioned deals.

All late picks are essentially dart throws. Pick 37-55 isn't worth worrying much about. Shoot for guys with the most upside, tight ends and QB's come into play potentially for me if there are any I like on the board. If any players taken in this range flash at all, I'll like be selling them as a priority for a higher pick than they were drafted. Romeo Doubs for a couple of 2nd rounders last year was good value after I selected him at pick 35.

 

[wlwiles]

12 team 1QB, 1PPR, no TEP. Start 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, plus 1 Flex

1.12 - Best hope at this point in time is that somehow I can land Spears or Flowers/Downs at this pick. Really hoping that someone falls in love with Richardson's prospect and maybe 2 or even 3 QBs go in the first so some mid-1st talent can slide. It's 1QB but we have several UF Gator fans in the league, and a couple guys that do need a long term QB so it's possible...

2.12 - I would 100% grab Mayer or Musgrave here, and I'd be real tempted to try and use this pick to move up if Kincaid is still on the board around 2.06ish.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

12 team 1QB, 1PPR, no TEP. Start 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, plus 1 Flex

1.12 - Best hope at this point in time is that somehow I can land Spears or Flowers/Downs at this pick. Really hoping that someone falls in love with Richardson's prospect and maybe 2 or even 3 QBs go in the first so some mid-1st talent can slide. It's 1QB but we have several UF Gator fans in the league, and a couple guys that do need a long term QB so it's possible...

You might not get a choice, but I like your chances of getting one of these guys. I like all three, but probably leaning Spears/Flowers/Downs in that order. Spears somewhat out of the necessity of the position. It's no way to draft a team, but watching Flowers highlights gets me excited. To some extent, I feel like I should be drooling when I'm watching highlights of the guy I'm taking in the 1st round.

At any rate, these players are why I would love to trade down to around this spot from the 1.7 in my 1QB. If I could extract anything resembling the usual value one would expect in a typical year it's an easy trade down. Achane, Charbonnet, Miller, Kincaid, QB are a lot easier to swallow at that spot than at the 1.7.

 

[-OZ-]

12 team SF - picks 8 and 12.
I’d love to move up but only if reasonable.
I’m fairly strong elsewhere but my QBs are Watson, tannehill, Lance, Mike white and scrubs so I’m considering trading one for a veteran QB.
I figure the 8 is probably the 2nd or 3rd best WR unless one of the TEs land in a great spot but with Waller, Dulcich, Chig and Everett, TE isn’t a huge need.

Only a 7th in my only other dyno.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Landing spots & draft capital are a major factor, so I’m waiting to finalize a plan until after the NFL draft.

That said, league 1: total rebuild. Went scorched Earth. Current assets include Higgins, ARSB, ETN, Pitts, Pacheco, KJO, Gabe Davis, Bell, Mattison, JuJohnson, Mason, Likey, Conklin, Deon Jackson, Justin Jackson, a few other scraps.

12 team SF, PPR, start 10, no D/ST, no K
• QB, SF, 2-5 RB, 3-6 WR, 1-4 TE

Have picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 5.01, 5.04, 5.07, 5.08

As of now I’m planning on Bijan, the top 2 QBs (TBD, but Stroud/Young are my current 2), and either JSN or Gibbs, depending on landing spot. Leaning JSN as I’m a big fan & WR is more of a need than RB. Of course I could draft Gibbs & trade for a WR1, but that’s a trickier path. Again, depends on landing spot - if Gibbs is a Chief I can’t pass that up.

Also by taking JSN, I’m hoping to help my 8 & 10 picks by starting the run on the top 2 WR, hoping ARich and/or Levis also goes between 5-7. At 8 & 10 it’s BPA, but it could well work out that Gibbs or Chabonet makes it to 8. If not maybe ARich falls to me there, or QJ. Someone’s gonna fall - there are 5-6 players I really like and only 3 picks between.

At 2.01 I’m hoping to land one of the WRs I like (Mims/Tillman) but again, depends on landing spot. I may have to use pick 1.10 on one of them by the time the NFL draft has happened. It’s virtually impossible to do this exercise without knowing who’s going where and with what draft capital invested.

3.01 I’m hoping Hooker is available. Early mocks are favorable to this plan, but again, landing spot matters.

After that it’s BPA all the way.

Note: if both JSN & Gibbs get jackpot landing spots, I might try to deal down to 1.05 using 8 & 10 to do so, locking up the top 5 , and getting both. This is an outside possibility. I know the owner is interested.

————————————————

League 2: 16 team SF, TE-P, IDP performance scoring
Competitive team, acquired the 1.01 shockingly cheap, but only have 5.06, 6.06 & 6.08 after that.

My only QBs are Fields & Lance, but I was 6th in scoring last year. IDP diminishes SF a little (a single sack for a loss of 5 can be worth 24+), but I would like to land another QB. Looking at dealing my 2024 early picks for Love, or to the 1.02 if he’s interested. Failing that I’m looking to move 1.01 for another top 3 pick + assets/picks.

So my plan at 1.01 all depends on whether I can acquire a QB. If I can, I’ll happily draft Bijan. But if I can’t, I’ll hope to parlay the 1.01 into a Stroud/Young, plus players/picks.

And failing that I’ll just draft Bijan and enjoy my backfield of Bijan/Hall/AJDillon.

This one’s very up in the air.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Hmmm... starting to think I might be the only one posting to a dynasty ff forum in March that doesn't have the rights to Bijan and half the 1st round.

 

[joey]

Let’s bump this topic after the NFL draft , so I don’t have to do this exercise twice

 

[Terpman22]

All my teams are 1 QB, maybe I need to step up my game and go SF at some point. 12 team PPRs, no kicker leagues.

Team A
1.6/2.6/2.10/3.6/3.10
Taking the best WR/RB available
QB: Herbert/Carr/Lance
RB: CEH/Chris Evans/Chuba/Sanders/Isaiah Spiller/Rashaad White/Kyren Williams
WR: Chark/Cooper/Van Jefferson/Dionte/Jakobi/Josh Palmer/Rashid Shaheed/Shakir/G.Wilson
TE: Ferguson/James Mitchell/Jelani Woods

Thoughts - Prob look to trade Cooper for youth/picks, *might* draft a tight end, but hoping one of these guys blossom. Keep drafting the wrong RB in round 1 (CEH #1 overall and Spiller 8 last year)


Team B
1.7/2.7/2.8/3.7
Gotta get a QB asap, need WR and TE help.
QB: Brady/WIlson/Zappe (LOL)
RB: Blackshear/Dillon/ETN/Hall/Najee/Marlon Mack/Michel/Pierce/Sanders
WR: Chark/Cooper/Hollins/Marvin Jones/London/Rondale/Palmer/Pierce/Renfrow/Shakir
TE: Freirmuth/McBride

Thoughts - With my dumb depth at RB, I will be making a move, not sure who, but would like to get up to 1.1 for Bijan.

Team C
1.5/2.3/2.5/3.5
WR seems like it should be my #1 priority and I should get a good one at 1.5
QB: Lawrence/Wilson
RB: Quon/Chris Evans/Dobbins/Najee/Eli Mitchell/Pierce/Singletary
WR: Aiyuk/Jones/Metchie/Jefferson/Palmer/Raymond/Shaheed/Shakir/Sutton/G.Wilson
TE: Ferguson/Hock/James Mitchell/Pitts

Thoughts - Probably should try to move a TE, but Pitts's value is in the dumpster. Not great depth on this team at all.


Team D
1.7/1.10/2.7/3.7
Need WR's badly. Made a shrewd trade to Get a 1st (1.10)/Stevenson/Kirk for Mark Andrews before he went down and the guys I got blew up.
QB: Burrow
RB: Akers/Allgeir/Chris Evans/Kamara/Singletary/Spiller/Stevenson/Javonte/Kyren Williams
WR: OBJ/Jefferson/Kirk/Landry/Palmer/Renfrow/Reynolds/Shaheed/MVS/G.WIlson
TE: Ferguson/Gesicki/Kittle

Thoughts: Allgeir seems like a "sell now to move up" candidate, not sure how much value he holds. Kamara long in the tooth, almost. Might shake a lot of things up.

Team E
1.6/2.6/3.6
Really need a QB. I think its time to just blow the whole thing up and get everything I can for everyone not named R White/G WIlson
QB: Tua/Purdy (LOL)
RB: Blackshear/A.Jones/Mack/CMC/Mostert/Spiller/R. White
WR: Chark/Hopkins/Dionte/Marvin Jones/Lazard/Jakobi/Samuel/Shakir/G.Wilson
TE: Goedert/Stoll

Thoughts - Was really distracted last year, first baby came and 1st house. Should have done more to this team, but its a cheap league and here we are.

Team F
1.4/2.4/3.4
WIll get a good/great player at 1.4, probably whoever WR1/WR2 is
QB: Lance/Mills/Ridder (LOL)
RB: Akers/Gibson/Hall/Pierce/Sanders/Spiller/Kyren Williams
WR: Chark/Doubs/Jefferson/Jeudy/Olave/Osborn/Palmer/Ridley/Demarcus Robinson/Shakir
TE: Ferguson/James Mitchell/Pitts

Thoughts - Probably should do whatever I can to package the 1.4 + Pierce or Sanders to see if that can get me 1.1 to have Bijan + Hall for a while. Then obviously I gotta get a QB at some point too.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let’s bump this topic after the NFL draft , so I don’t have to do this exercise twice

I actually like that imma do it twice. It’ll be an interesting little time capsule for me to see what’s changed.

 

[travdogg]

As someone who doesn't have a 1st round pick in either of my dynasty leagues (not even a 2nd in 1 of them) my board pre-draft looks like this:
Round 1:
1. Bijan Robinson, the clearest #1 pick since Barkley? I'd go so far as to say I'd gladly trade 1.2+1.3 for 1.1.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Quentin Johnston
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Jordan Addison, I kinda view him and Flowers as interchangeable, but I'll lean toward the guy who is seemingly going to be drafted higher.
6. Zay Flowers
7. Zach Charbonnet, could bump him as high as #3 if he gets a great landing spot.
8. Devon Achane, needs to go somewhere where they have a creative playcaller.
9. Josh Downs, despite size, I think he's a very high floor guy, who can fit any offense.
10. Jalin Hyatt, needs to go somewhere the have a creative playcaller, and a big armed QB. Could move him down a lot after the draft if he doesn't.
11. Bryce Young
12. Dalton Kincaid, other than Kyle Pitts (who was maybe the best TE prospect ever) I think Kincaid is the best TE prospect since at least 2017.
Round 2:
13. C.J. Stroud, I think his ceiling is a little overrated, but he's starting somewhere day 1.
14. Nathaniel Dell
15. Michael Mayer
16. DeWayne McBride
17. Tank Bigsby
18. Tyjae Spears
19. Kendre Miller, 16-19 all landing spot dependent
20. Anthony Richardson, could move up to where Young is potentially, but I'm nervous he lands somewhere he doesn't see the field in 2023, except in maybe a Taysom role.
21. Roschon Johnson
22. Rashee Rice
23. Will Levis, could also move up if he goes somewhere he starts right away.
24. Kayshon Boutte, not a big fan, but RB has dried up, and the other WR's (AT Perry, Michael Wilson have just as many issues) could maybe argue Luke Musgrave here.

 

[farfromforgotten]

Hmmm... starting to think I might be the only one posting to a dynasty ff forum in March that doesn't have the rights to Bijan and half the 1st round.

You’re not alone. The only pick that I have worth mentioning is #22. I rarely keep 1st rd draft picks. It is my belief that they are typically overvalued and I almost never have a top 6 selection. I would rather move it during the season for a younger player already in the league.

With all of that out of the way I always find “my guy” who isn’t considered a 1st round pick during the college season and that was Spears for me this year. Dude has blown up a bit since the season ended and it will be impossible to get him at 22 now. I may try and move up into the teens if he is still there. Outside of that I am setup pretty well at QB and WR and will be more than happy to land one of the top TE prospects as I currently have Fant, Irv Smith, and Chigoziem on my roster at the position.

 

[eighsse2]

12-team1QB, PPR, QRRWWFKD ... So RB's are extremely valuable, and TE's worthless unless named Kelce, Andrews, etc.

Likely cuts are stricken through

QB: Hurts, Pickett
RB: Etienne, Swift, J. Robinson, Hasty, Sermon
WR: AJ Brown, Lamb, Wilson, J. Williams, Godwin, Bateman, E. Moore, Pierce, Renfrow, Bell, Philips, Marshall
TE: ∅
K: McLaughlin
DST: Chargers


I have #1, #8, #9, and #13 (and #34 if I choose to use it). My (way too early) plan, assuming I don't make any more trades:

#1 Bijan Robinson. Barring horrible news, this is obvious.

#8 and #9 Almost guaranteed RB's. A lot of info will be gained by then to shift my list around, so not particularly meaningful to worry about which ones they will be. But even if no WR has been taken yet, it's basically a sure thing these will be RB's. My current list would go something like:

2. Jamhyr Gibbs
3. Zach Charbonnet
4. Like 10 other guys tied, situation will be absolutely necessary info to differentiate them *shrug* that's all I have to say there. But Gibbs will definitely be gone and extremely likely Charbonnet gone. So, 2 out of that huge block of essentially equal RB's.

#13 Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, or Jordan Addison, in that order currently. Based on league history, 97% probability that at least one of these is still available at #13. Especially given the huge list of worthy RB's this year.

Would love to grab a #14-18 pick to get either a QB or even anither of those top 3 WR if still available. But, that remains to be seen.

Annnd if I end up cutting enough guys to free up that #34, likely looking at those lower WR's. One or two roster-worthy rookie receivers always last to the end of the draft in this league. Somebody like a Boutte, Flowers, Downs, Hyatt. If those should all be gone, someone like a Mims or Rice is almost sure to be there.

 

[massraider]

https://twitter.com/FF_MarvinE/status/1634001867725258752/photo/1

Some guys did a mock rookie draft. Superflex.

good to see where people might be at

 

[joey]

https://twitter.com/FF_MarvinE/status/1634001867725258752/photo/1

Some guys did a mock rookie draft. Superflex.

good to see where people might be at

Thanks for sharing.

the first 7 non-QBs in that first round exactly lines up with my current top 7 at this moment.

 

[titusbramble]

10 team SF, have 1.04, 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 4.04, 4.05, 4.06. Plan is:

- Take whichever QB out of Young/Stroud/Richardson is available
- At least 2 RB's with the seconds, assuming there hasn't been an enormous rush from picks 9-13. May try and package two of them to more back up into the first/earlier in the second if Levis drops.
- Fourths are just going to be dart throws given we have four taxi spots available. Likely stashing a QB, RB and TE, but may dump one of them to a 2024 pick if nobody appealing is on the board at the time

 

[kerpow]

I'm 4 dynasty leagues:

League 1 - 12 Team Single QB
Pick 1.11 Not giving it much thought, best player available. Tier 2 WR (Rice, Boutte, Downs) or Tier 1 TE

League 2 - 12 team SF
Pick 1.10 - Hoping for Charbonnet, would take Zay Flowers too

League 3 - 12 team Single QB
Pick 1.01 - Bijan, duh!
Pick 1.10 - Tier 2 WR
Pick 2.01 - BPA

League 4 - 12 team SF
Pick 1.01 - I'm really leaning Young here, if I can't trade down to 1.02 or 1.03. Others will tell me I'm wrong to do so, but I just feel he's the best fantasy asset for this team long term. I've actually flip-flopped from Stroud to Young recently, as all the smart people I read/listen to are saying Young is the better prospect, despite his size.
Pick 1.06 - Richardson or Levis, if they are available. If not, I guess it would be Gibbs or JSN, depending on usual stuff like landing spot and draft capital
Pick 1.10 - As above, Charbonnet or Flowers
Pick 2.01 - Tier 2 WR
Pick 2.06 - BPA
Pick 2.07 - BPA

 

[dmac37]

As someone who doesn't have a 1st round pick in either of my dynasty leagues (not even a 2nd in 1 of them) my board pre-draft looks like this:
Round 1:
1. Bijan Robinson, the clearest #1 pick since Barkley? I'd go so far as to say I'd gladly trade 1.2+1.3 for 1.1.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Quentin Johnston
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Jordan Addison, I kinda view him and Flowers as interchangeable, but I'll lean toward the guy who is seemingly going to be drafted higher.
6. Zay Flowers
7. Zach Charbonnet, could bump him as high as #3 if he gets a great landing spot.
8. Devon Achane, needs to go somewhere where they have a creative playcaller.
9. Josh Downs, despite size, I think he's a very high floor guy, who can fit any offense.
10. Jalin Hyatt, needs to go somewhere the have a creative playcaller, and a big armed QB. Could move him down a lot after the draft if he doesn't.
11. Bryce Young
12. Dalton Kincaid, other than Kyle Pitts (who was maybe the best TE prospect ever) I think Kincaid is the best TE prospect since at least 2017.
Round 2:
13. C.J. Stroud, I think his ceiling is a little overrated, but he's starting somewhere day 1.
14. Nathaniel Dell
15. Michael Mayer
16. DeWayne McBride
17. Tank Bigsby
18. Tyjae Spears
19. Kendre Miller, 16-19 all landing spot dependent
20. Anthony Richardson, could move up to where Young is potentially, but I'm nervous he lands somewhere he doesn't see the field in 2023, except in maybe a Taysom role.
21. Roschon Johnson
22. Rashee Rice
23. Will Levis, could also move up if he goes somewhere he starts right away.
24. Kayshon Boutte, not a big fan, but RB has dried up, and the other WR's (AT Perry, Michael Wilson have just as many issues) could maybe argue Luke Musgrave here.

That down on Tucker?

 

[Birdie048]

https://twitter.com/FF_MarvinE/status/1634001867725258752/photo/1

Some guys did a mock rookie draft. Superflex.

good to see where people might be at

Thanks for sharing.

the first 7 non-QBs in that first round exactly lines up with my current top 7 at this moment.

I agree.... Top 7 non-QB are in alignment... but the Roscoe J pick at 2.12 (17th non-QB) was surprising to me. Ahead of Z Evans?

 

[Ilov80s]

1QB, PPR only have 1.2 and then corresponding picks. I am in the final phase of a rebuild. Finished 2nd to last but was middle of the pack in points scored so I got lucky/unlucky depending on how you look at it. Core of the team is Hurts/Goedert/Breece/ETN/Amon Ra/Dotson

1.2 Debating between JSN and Gibbs. I am much deeper at RB than WR but of course a trade makes a lot of sense as well, either for an established WR or a larger package of picks
2.2 No clue here, quality of player might dictate getting a QB/TE but I hate doing that in this format. I likely take the best RB that makes it to me
3.2 Here is where a fantasy developmental TE might make sense given how deep the class is- or just take whatever RB slips

 

[Birdie048]

1QB, PPR only have 1.2 and then corresponding picks. I am in the final phase of a rebuild. Finished 2nd to last but was middle of the pack in points scored so I got lucky/unlucky depending on how you look at it. Core of the team is Hurts/Goedert/Breece/ETN/Amon Ra/Dotson

1.2 Debating between JSN and Gibbs. I am much deeper at RB than WR but of course a trade makes a lot of sense as well, either for an established WR or a larger package of picks
2.2 No clue here, quality of player might dictate getting a QB/TE but I hate doing that in this format. I likely take the best RB that makes it to me
3.2 Here is where a fantasy developmental TE might make sense given how deep the class is- or just take whatever RB slips

Nice Core ... And I can see WR need higher concern, but I have to expect Breece not return to form until mid-season. ETN and a flier RB 2.02 (Kendre Miller?) while he returns to full strength if you go WR at 1.02 JSN makes sense too. TE is deep so I can see waiting, unless you trade out of 1.02 for proven WR --> Garret Wilson/Burks type & pick for TE is an option
Selling the 1.02 to a RB needy team to let them get Gibbs would be something I look at closely.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Hmmm... starting to think I might be the only one posting to a dynasty ff forum in March that doesn't have the rights to Bijan and half the 1st round.

You’re not alone. The only pick that I have worth mentioning is #22. I rarely keep 1st rd draft picks. It is my belief that they are typically overvalued and I almost never have a top 6 selection. I would rather move it during the season for a younger player already in the league.

With all of that out of the way I always find “my guy” who isn’t considered a 1st round pick during the college season and that was Spears for me this year. Dude has blown up a bit since the season ended and it will be impossible to get him at 22 now. I may try and move up into the teens if he is still there. Outside of that I am setup pretty well at QB and WR and will be more than happy to land one of the top TE prospects as I currently have Fant, Irv Smith, and Chigoziem on my roster at the position.

This has also been my experience. Buy the picks in September through November. Sell them at the combine, NFL draft, or weeks before our August rookie draft, when people have irrational expectations about what these picks represent.

Now is a great time to buy 2022 rookie WRs that underwhelmed or 2021s that still have a chance. Middle of their rookie year is usually a great time for any RBs coming in short of expectations. I think I've left every one of my drafts with the thought that I would have been happy to just throw darts on the 3rd-5th rounders that were available and use the 1st and 2nds to upgrade veterans. The added benefit is that you don't get stuck holding an underperforming player because you spent a 1st or 2nd and can't stomach dropping him to watch him blossom on a leaguemate's roster. A 3rd rounder that isn't panning out is an easy cut and move on with the roster spot.

If I feel the same way about the 1.7 after the NFL Draft, I will definitely be shopping my 1.7 to see what player I can get back with a middle 2nd round pick. I wouldn't be surprised if I could land an Elijah Moore, Bateman, or at worst a Skyy Moore. This year might test that though.

 

[massraider]

I have 1.6 and 1.7, and right now, that looks like the best QB available, or tier drop. I don't play SuperFlex

Right after the NFL draft, and before the rookie draft (peak draft pick lust) I willz WhatsApp the league, looking for a 1 ne xt year, and maybe a little bump up from 3rd to 2nd round this year.

I figure the chance that I really lose out on the quality in my choices next year vs mid 1st this year are negligible (and maybe I'm in line for a stud). And that little bump up to the 2nd is my real goal.

I'll take all these athletic TE in the 2nd if people let me. Historically, stud TE are stud athletes. We have years without any real fantasy TE prospects. We have several this year. Scarcity alone makes them more attractive than ANOTHER slot guy everyone hopes turns into Welker

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I have 1.6 and 1.7, and right now, that looks like the best QB available, or tier drop. I don't play SuperFlex

Right after the NFL draft, and before the rookie draft (peak draft pick lust) I willz WhatsApp the league, looking for a 1 ne xt year, and maybe a little bump up from 3rd to 2nd round this year.

I figure the chance that I really lose out on the quality in my choices next year vs mid 1st this year are negligible (and maybe I'm in line for a stud). And that little bump up to the 2nd is my real goal.

I'll take all these athletic TE in the 2nd if people let me. Historically, stud TE are stud athletes. We have years without any real fantasy TE prospects. We have several this year. Scarcity alone makes them more attractive than ANOTHER slot guy everyone hopes turns into Welker

Also with a 1.7 in 1QB and this is also the dream. I'm just not in love with the options. At least not compared to what I associate with the #7 overall. Chances are that I won't feel much worse about the options next year even if I get stuck with the 1.11, and if there's a real chance that it turns in to a top 4 or 5 pick, that's an easy decision. Of course, the grass is always greener over on the next draft class, and this 1st round was once advertised as a bounty of RB studs.

I'm probably not ready to punt until after the NFL draft. There's still a chance that a few things fall right so that the #7 suddenly becomes a compelling spot. Nothing very helpful happened at the combine. Addison put himself outside of the bubble. That's for my own team needs, and probably the rest of my league that might've considered him in the top 6. Spears and Achane look like every bit the reach they were before. Tucker and Evans did nothing to put themselves back on the radar. I think the only positive is that I'm now willing to consider gambling on Richardson's athleticism at that spot, but that might not end well.

'24 1st & '23 early 3rd looks like a nice return right now for the 1.7.

1.7 + 3.4 -for- '24 1st + '23 mid-2nd is even better.

Lacking that, drop down from 1.7 to the top half of the 2nd and see what player I can pick up in the process.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If I feel the same way about the 1.7 after the NFL Draft, I will definitely be shopping my 1.7 to see what player I can get back with a middle 2nd round pick. I wouldn't be surprised if I could land an Elijah Moore, Bateman, or at worst a Skyy Moore. This year might test that though.

I would strongly advise waiting until you're OTC to offer the pick for max value.

You left out "during the FF draft" as one of the best times to sell picks, but IMO that is THE optimal time. Other league members get about a player on the board, and the pressure is on.

Just because you're not high on the players at 1.07 doesn't mean everyone in your league will be down on them.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'll take all these athletic TE in the 2nd if people let me. Historically, stud TE are stud athletes. We have years without any real fantasy TE prospects. We have several this year.

It's looking like an historic year for TEs. Everyone was gaga over Mayers, and there may be 4 TEs better. That 6'7" dude who ran like a LB was awfully impressive.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ahead of Z Evans?

Zach Evans stock has been tumbling.

That said, I take mocks this time of year with a huge grain of salt.

There are 4 main data points on which to base a mock draft:

1. Collegiate performance
2. Combine
3. Draft Capital
4. Landing Spot

We have 1/2 of the data points. #1 is fairly obvious, so really we have 1/3 of them. And it is by far, the least important 1/3. Landing spot & draft capital are far and away more important IMO.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I'll take all these athletic TE in the 2nd if people let me. Historically, stud TE are stud athletes. We have years without any real fantasy TE prospects. We have several this year. Scarcity alone makes them more attractive than ANOTHER slot guy everyone hopes turns into Welker

Also trying to navigate the TE landscape. The position scares me because if I spend actual draft capital on the spot, they're going to be clogging up my roster for a long time if they don't hit.

I think the upside is there and a high pick is warranted for Kincaid (late 1st / early 2nd). Would love Musgrave at 3.1, but he should go somewhere in the 2nd. Less bullish on Mayer for fantasy, but same can be said for him.

Picked Bellinger off the heap end of season, added him to LIkely as my developmental TE. Both were 4th round NFL picks. If guys like Laporta, Tucker, Washington go early enough in the 2nd / 3rd round, I guess I'd probably have to consider them as upgrades. Kincaid, Musgrave, Mayer certainly would be.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Less bullish on Mayer for fantasy, but same can be said for him.

What a difference a combine makes. Mayer still might be the best FF TE in the draft - he's just not an athletic darling like Kinkaid or Musgrave, or a total freak like Washington.

But there's no denying that Mayer was a very, very good college TE. People have been waiting 2 years to draft him.

It'll be interesting to see how the NFL feels about this hierarchy when the draft comes around.

 

[joey]

I'll take all these athletic TE in the 2nd if people let me. Historically, stud TE are stud athletes. We have years without any real fantasy TE prospects. We have several this year. Scarcity alone makes them more attractive than ANOTHER slot guy everyone hopes turns into Welker

Also trying to navigate the TE landscape. The position scares me because if I spend actual draft capital on the spot, they're going to be clogging up my roster for a long time if they don't hit.

I think the upside is there and a high pick is warranted for Kincaid (late 1st / early 2nd). Would love Musgrave at 3.1, but he should go somewhere in the 2nd. Less bullish on Mayer for fantasy, but same can be said for him.

Picked Bellinger off the heap end of season, added him to LIkely as my developmental TE. Both were 4th round NFL picks. If guys like Laporta, Tucker, Washington go early enough in the 2nd / 3rd round, I guess I'd probably have to consider them as upgrades. Kincaid, Musgrave, Mayer certainly would be.

Similar thoughts, concerns and approach at for me in a league where I’m hoping to finish my rebuild this year (FFPC 1QB, TE-P league). Sold off Tyreek, Zeke and some other pieces last offseason to end up with 1.1, 1.6, 1.8, 2.6, 2.7, 3.6 and 3.8 (and a couple 4ths, etc).

1.1 = Bijan
1.6 = BPA WR or RB (likely WR4 or RB3)
1.8 =same (likely WR5 or RB4)
2.6 and 2.7 = one of these 2 picks is a rookie TE
3.6 and 3.8 = similar approach that one of these 2 picks will also be a rookie TE.
I have Andrew’s so can be a little patient (also have Bellinger at the very edge of my cut line)

but it feels like spending 2 of my 4 2nd and 3rd round picks on a couple of these impressive rookie TEs will be a fun way to throw a couple of darts in this TE Premium league.

 

[menobrown]

I'm in 9 dynasty leagues. I have 11 first round picks, all of my own and two more, one of which was acquired this off-season and that one is pick 1.2. No leagues are SF, all but two are TE premium.

That 1.2 I acquired is the outlier of my 11 picks, only one inside the top 4. 3 of the other 10 are between 5-6 and the other 7 are between 10-12.

So no 1, 3, 4, 7, 8 or 9.

Other then the 1.2 I got zero idea and find it close to impossible to plan for the picks in the 10-12 bucket. Hard to even ballpark what might be available and who I'd like right now. I got a ballpark idea of the 5-6 range but anticipate a RB(s) landing in strong spots with decent draft capital and entering the mix whether directly as options for me or pushing someone back to me but trying to actually predict those RB(s) after the Big 2 seems futile.

So I really got no idea and not trying to paint myself in a corner. I'm just trying to stay in info gathering mode. One thing I'm planning for is to be absolutely underwhelmed by the WR options available to me, especially outside of round one. Most of my leagues are FFPC, so we got to cut down to 14 position players in 3 weeks, and I'm putting more of an emphasis on making sure my WR's are good on those 14 then I can recall in years past.

 

[wlwiles]

The more I read of this thread and early mocks, the more I'm thinking that Kincaid at 1.12 might be the shark move. I originally never considered an early TE because I have Pitts, but the guy that just won my league last year did so with TE Kittle and Flex Hock...

 

[IHEARTFF]

The more I read of this thread and early mocks, the more I'm thinking that Kincaid at 1.12 might be the shark move. I originally never considered an early TE because I have Pitts, but the guy that just won my league last year did so with TE Kittle and Flex Hock...

if he's available and his landing spot is somewhere he can produce early, why not

 

[Ilov80s]

1QB, PPR only have 1.2 and then corresponding picks. I am in the final phase of a rebuild. Finished 2nd to last but was middle of the pack in points scored so I got lucky/unlucky depending on how you look at it. Core of the team is Hurts/Goedert/Breece/ETN/Amon Ra/Dotson

1.2 Debating between JSN and Gibbs. I am much deeper at RB than WR but of course a trade makes a lot of sense as well, either for an established WR or a larger package of picks
2.2 No clue here, quality of player might dictate getting a QB/TE but I hate doing that in this format. I likely take the best RB that makes it to me
3.2 Here is where a fantasy developmental TE might make sense given how deep the class is- or just take whatever RB slips

Nice Core ... And I can see WR need higher concern, but I have to expect Breece not return to form until mid-season. ETN and a flier RB 2.02 (Kendre Miller?) while he returns to full strength if you go WR at 1.02 JSN makes sense too. TE is deep so I can see waiting, unless you trade out of 1.02 for proven WR --> Garret Wilson/Burks type & pick for TE is an option
Selling the 1.02 to a RB needy team to let them get Gibbs would be something I look at closely.

I appreciate the feedback a lot. I do have James Cook and Pacheco so I am not totally stuck if Breece is delayed but also I probably need to start 3 RBs because I've missed with a lot of WR picks (Rondale, Terrace Marshall, Mims, maybe Wandale). I agree trading 1.02 to a team that covets Gibbs in exchange for an established WR would likely be the best move.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Less bullish on Mayer for fantasy, but same can be said for him.

What a difference a combine makes. Mayer still might be the best FF TE in the draft - he's just not an athletic darling like Kinkaid or Musgrave, or a total freak like Washington.

But there's no denying that Mayer was a very, very good college TE. People have been waiting 2 years to draft him.

It'll be interesting to see how the NFL feels about this hierarchy when the draft comes around.

Mayer was projected as a 1st round fantasy pick twelve months ago. I think most evaluations backed off of that sentiment long before the combine.

No doubt the NFL will value him. For me, it's Kincaid if they're anywhere in the same range. You know what an NFL team has planned if they're drafting Kincaid early. I hate discounting guys like Mayer and Washington in fantasy for excellent blocking, but it does create questions about usage. On the flip side, you can count on them being on the field, which is always a prerequisite for catching the football, where they're more than capable.

I think Mayer vs Musgrave is a debate. I'm being somewhat dismissive of Mayer just because I won't be taking him at #7 and I know he's not coming around to the 3.1. He might be an excellent 2nd round value in fantasy, just not a 2nd rounder that I'm targeting / moving down for.

 

[massraider]

I'm not drafting a TE in fantasy because crusty old football guys overrate old-timey Notre Dame tight ends. Pfft

 

[JohnnyU]

If I can offer any advice at all, it would be to draft BPA and trade for need.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I'm not drafting a TE in fantasy because crusty old football guys overrate old-timey Notre Dame tight ends. Pfft

Personally, I'm not drafting Mayer because I don't think he's worthy of the #7 overall as a fantasy asset and somebody will surely jump on him in the second round. Smash selection if I see him at #25, which I won't.

Kelce/Goedert are on roster, so I'm looking for future fantasy TE#1 upside for anyone else that I add to the position. Obviously that's a hard pull, but if I'm betting on anyone from this class to get there, it's Kincaid. I think Mayer is a fairly safe bet to be a mid-tier TE1.

Taking the value selection in the 3rd is probably the most likely path, be it Musgrave, Washington, Laporta, Kraft or whoever else.

 

[jabarony]

The more I read of this thread and early mocks, the more I'm thinking that Kincaid at 1.12 might be the shark move. I originally never considered an early TE because I have Pitts, but the guy that just won my league last year did so with TE Kittle and Flex Hock...

Trade that 1.12 for Hock and enjoy the ride.

 

[travdogg]

As someone who doesn't have a 1st round pick in either of my dynasty leagues (not even a 2nd in 1 of them) my board pre-draft looks like this:
Round 1:
1. Bijan Robinson, the clearest #1 pick since Barkley? I'd go so far as to say I'd gladly trade 1.2+1.3 for 1.1.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs
3. Quentin Johnston
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Jordan Addison, I kinda view him and Flowers as interchangeable, but I'll lean toward the guy who is seemingly going to be drafted higher.
6. Zay Flowers
7. Zach Charbonnet, could bump him as high as #3 if he gets a great landing spot.
8. Devon Achane, needs to go somewhere where they have a creative playcaller.
9. Josh Downs, despite size, I think he's a very high floor guy, who can fit any offense.
10. Jalin Hyatt, needs to go somewhere the have a creative playcaller, and a big armed QB. Could move him down a lot after the draft if he doesn't.
11. Bryce Young
12. Dalton Kincaid, other than Kyle Pitts (who was maybe the best TE prospect ever) I think Kincaid is the best TE prospect since at least 2017.
Round 2:
13. C.J. Stroud, I think his ceiling is a little overrated, but he's starting somewhere day 1.
14. Nathaniel Dell
15. Michael Mayer
16. DeWayne McBride
17. Tank Bigsby
18. Tyjae Spears
19. Kendre Miller, 16-19 all landing spot dependent
20. Anthony Richardson, could move up to where Young is potentially, but I'm nervous he lands somewhere he doesn't see the field in 2023, except in maybe a Taysom role.
21. Roschon Johnson
22. Rashee Rice
23. Will Levis, could also move up if he goes somewhere he starts right away.
24. Kayshon Boutte, not a big fan, but RB has dried up, and the other WR's (AT Perry, Michael Wilson have just as many issues) could maybe argue Luke Musgrave here.

That down on Tucker?

Yes, I never got the hype with him or Evans. I don't really get it with Roschon Johnson either, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as he was stuck behind Bijan.

 

[Birdie048]

I'm not drafting a TE in fantasy because crusty old football guys overrate old-timey Notre Dame tight ends. Pfft

Personally, I'm not drafting Mayer because I don't think he's worthy of the #7 overall as a fantasy asset and somebody will surely jump on him in the second round. Smash selection if I see him at #25, which I won't.

Kelce/Goedert are on roster, so I'm looking for future fantasy TE#1 upside for anyone else that I add to the position. Obviously that's a hard pull, but if I'm betting on anyone from this class to get there, it's Kincaid. I think Mayer is a fairly safe bet to be a mid-tier TE1.

Taking the value selection in the 3rd is probably the most likely path, be it Musgrave, Washington, Laporta, Kraft or whoever else.

But if you needed a TE, who would be your first choice? I am still torn on which is the best pick?

I am in complete rebuild and I have 7, 8, 9, 13 & 15 ... So TE is a clear need and preferable 2.
Originally, I was targeting Mayer or Kincaid at 9 since TE-P, and another TE at 15 (2.03) since QB will be 2.01.
Current TE = Tonyan so that is a dead spot.

 

[massraider]

But if you needed a TE, who would be your first choice? I am still torn on which is the best pick?

We will see about draft capital, but it's Kincaid for me.

I might be pulling back jussst a bit on the Kincaid hype, feels like people were late to the party, and there's some over-steering happening, but I'll still take a shot on a 2nd round pass catcher TE over another slot guy at WR

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I'm not drafting a TE in fantasy because crusty old football guys overrate old-timey Notre Dame tight ends. Pfft

Personally, I'm not drafting Mayer because I don't think he's worthy of the #7 overall as a fantasy asset and somebody will surely jump on him in the second round. Smash selection if I see him at #25, which I won't.

Kelce/Goedert are on roster, so I'm looking for future fantasy TE#1 upside for anyone else that I add to the position. Obviously that's a hard pull, but if I'm betting on anyone from this class to get there, it's Kincaid. I think Mayer is a fairly safe bet to be a mid-tier TE1.

Taking the value selection in the 3rd is probably the most likely path, be it Musgrave, Washington, Laporta, Kraft or whoever else.

But if you needed a TE, who would be your first choice? I am still torn on which is the best pick?

I am in complete rebuild and I have 7, 8, 9, 13 & 15 ... So TE is a clear need and preferable 2.
Originally, I was targeting Mayer or Kincaid at 9 since TE-P, and another TE at 15 (2.03) since QB will be 2.01.
Current TE = Tonyan so that is a dead spot.

Good year to need TEs. I think Kincaid and Mayer are the only two TEs that apply to the picks you listed.

If you're absolutely stuck at TE and need someone to contribute year one, there's a case for Mayer. He should be on the field early and often. You should have a fantasy TE1 right out of the shoot. But if I'm simply looking for the guy with the best chance to be a fantasy impact TE, Kincaid is my guy at this point.

If they go at the same point in the NFL draft, and I have my choice between:

A) receiving TE -- okay blocking
B) all around receiving / blocking TE

Comparable NFL draft capital and landing spot, give me the receiving TE for fantasy.

IF the all-around TE goes #20 in the NFL Draft and the receiving TE goes at #40, then it's more of question mark on who's the better fantasy TE.

I was starting to warm to Kincaid as an option at 1.7. There are apparently some medical concerns that might move me off of that idea if the draft was today. If NFL teams decide he's still the top TE, then I'm not going to sweat it. If I needed a TE and had your picks, I would probably try to land Kincaid at 13, knowing that I have the #15 to go get Mayer if I miss. I assume you have later picks to go hunting after the TE depth as well.

If all else fails, there's always not being married to a TE and being the first to scoop the FA that just went off and hope you just got a guy on his breakout. There's definitely some logic to putting the draft capital to other uses and going this route. The guys in my league with Okonkwo, Knox, Njoku, Engram, Schultz, and I think Mark Andrews all have free TE1s or close to it by going this route.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If I can offer any advice at all, it would be to draft BPA and trade for need.

I agree - but there are some close calls where I may lean need, provided I’m not sacrificing too much value.

Like ARich - by the time we get to FF draft SNZ, some might say it’s crazy to pass on ARich for JSN or Gibbs, even if I’ve already taken Young & Stroud.

Upside upside upside and all that.

Or with potentially a smaller difference, passing on Gibbs for JSN, assuming optimal landing spots for both.

Worth noting, a recent mock by FBG (and many on YouTube post-combine) has JSN going ahead of Gibbs.

I could see making any/all of those moves based on need over value, if
1. The value difference isn’t that substantial
2. You’re somewhat more risk averse and are potentially drafting for a safer floor over absolute ceiling
3. You don’t get trade offers sufficient to make passing up a player you really like a more viable option.

Let’s use Bijan at 1.01 for an example. A common theme these days is for YouTubers to lambaste rebuilders, saying “your team isn’t ready for Bijan”.

Ok, it’s a fair take. I totally get what they’re saying. But if the offer value just isn’t there, I would absolutely take Bijan, let him show that he’s worthy of multiple firsts, and then trade the player instead of the pick down the road.

Which, IMO, reinforces your statement about drafting for value instead of need. If you need a WR desperately and are fine at RB, but managed to get the 1.01, draft Bijan & deal him for an elite WR.

So we’re in agreement here, I’m just adding some context/variables where it might be ok to bend a little from that philosophy.

Personally I’m likely to take JSN at 4 over Gibbs in SF, knowing that I can get a RB at 1.08 who isn’t too far off of Gibbs value-wise. Using my hypothetical above where they both land in great spots, I see them as very close in dynasty value. Now that said, if Gibbs goes to a jackpot situation (MIA) & JSN doesn’t (BAL) then I’ll draft Gibbs and try to deal him for a WR later.

In that case, the gap will have widened sufficiently for me to take the value over the need.

 

[ghostguy123]

The FFPC holds their rookie drafts in May, within a week or two of the conclusion of the NFL draft.
How would that change your strategy, if at all, compared to drafts during the preseason?
Usually ADP ends up quite a bit different several months later, once you get past a few picks