Rookie / Dynasty Content - You asked - We listened (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

One of the things folks told us when asked about how we can better serve you is you wanted more Dynasty/Rookie content.

Glad to say our Sigmund Bloom has the Bloom 100 ready for you here. He talks up the positions and general strategy and then goes deep with blurbs on his top 100 players in this year's draft. Enjoy.

And we'll continue to bring you the Dynasty/Rookie content you need to crush your leagues.

The Bloom 100.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Who do you disagree with Sigmund on for the list?

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think depending on landing spots, some of the Tier2 WR could move ahead of Walker, and I think I would drop Walker to that tier.  I think Hall is the clear #1 and in his own tier ATM, but that is just my opinion.

 

[rockaction]

One of the things folks told us when asked about how we can better serve you is you wanted more Dynasty/Rookie content.

Glad to say our Sigmund Bloom has the Bloom 100 ready for you here. He talks up the positions and general strategy and then goes deep with blurbs on his top 100 players in this year's draft. Enjoy.

And we'll continue to bring you the Dynasty/Rookie content you need to crush your leagues.

The Bloom 100.

Love the list. Thanks a bunch.  

 

[rockaction]

Who do you disagree with Sigmund on for the list?

To the best of my hobbyist ability, Kyle Hamilton is too high on the list. Even if a S scores ridiculously in your league, which they likely won't, they have a really low VORP, it seems. If it's a 3 DB set-up then you can look at corners that get thrown at, too. S are subject to the whim of their coaches in deployment. If your league is even remotely tackle-heavy, you're looking for a different kind of player, I think.

Watch, he'll turn out to be a tackle machine and pace the fantasy world. 

Never know. 

 

[MAC_32]

To the best of my hobbyist ability, Kyle Hamilton is too high on the list. Even if a S scores ridiculously in your league, which they likely won't, they have a really low VORP, it seems. If it's a 3 DB set-up then you can look at corners that get thrown at, too. S are subject to the whim of their coaches in deployment. If your league is even remotely tackle-heavy, you're looking for a different kind of player, I think.

Watch, he'll turn out to be a tackle machine and pace the fantasy world. 

Never know. 

The appropriate spot for Hamilton depends on league format. That point in the draft in which the likelihood of those available outproducing replacement value falls to 10-20% is where he makes sense. But only in leagues in which 90+% box safeties are not always available on waivers. 

 

[rockaction]

The appropriate spot for Hamilton depends on league format. That point in the draft in which the likelihood of those available outproducing replacement value falls to 10-20% is where he makes sense. But only in leagues in which 90+% box safeties are not always available on waivers. 

Sounds good, but in order to figure that out, you have to project the safety. Some have said they are wildly unpredictable in their roles outside the top five or six guys that line up in the box all the time. And those change by year. Harrison Smith this year had a huge IDP year and he hadn't the previous two. So even a guy finishing in the top two one year could have been out of the top twelve or twenty-four a years or so ago. Everyone else (besides the marquee guys on older-style NFL teams that deploy a 3-4 or even a nickel base at a significantly higher rate than dime, which is up to 23% of league-wide use per play) is wandering around, not getting snaps, and big-play dependent. Least that's what Tom Kislingbury and followers would have one believe. 

I tend to think he's correct. 

How are you going to project that? 

 

[rockaction]

That's just one guy's opinion who writes for DLF. Love to hear contrary takes. 

 

[MAC_32]

Sounds good, but in order to figure that out, you have to project the safety. Some have said they are wildly unpredictable in their roles outside the top five or six guys that line up in the box all the time. And those change by year. Harrison Smith this year had a huge IDP year and he hadn't the previous two. So even a guy finishing in the top two one year could have been out of the top twelve or twenty-four a years or so ago. Everyone else (besides the marquee guys on older-style NFL teams that deploy a 3-4 or even a nickel base at a significantly higher rate than dime, which is up to 23% of league-wide use per play) is wandering around, not getting snaps, and big-play dependent. Least that's what Tom Kislingbury and followers would have one believe. 

I tend to think he's correct. 

How are you going to project that? 

I don't think there is any value in projections. The margins are tight and often dependent on scheme and health. I keep it simple and just chase types. Box safety skill sets with 90+% snaps are who I want. I'll pivot more to snap counts if I still need a starter at that point, but short of that my priority on the bench (if I add any) is the box safety skill set. 

 

[socrates]

Who do you disagree with Sigmund on for the list?

Well done, as always.   

One that surprised me was Bloom's low ranking of Rachaad White.  His pathway to success will be determined in large part by his draft destination, but in the right situation, White could represent good PPR value.  He is a tall RB at 6'0", but I believe at 214 lbs, Rachaad White has enough size to become more than just a part-time rotational back.  White is built similar to Darren McFadden, and runs with the same upright style.  White is likely a day 3 NFL pick, but I would be willing to take a chance on him in PPR dynasty well ahead of some of the other RBs Bloom has in that range.

 

[Gally]

The appropriate spot for Hamilton depends on league format. That point in the draft in which the likelihood of those available outproducing replacement value falls to 10-20% is where he makes sense. But only in leagues in which 90+% box safeties are not always available on waivers. 

I don't even think that is an appropriate spot.  DB's are like kickers.  They are lumped together and you never know who will be this years top guy.  Plus you can always find one that is within 1 or 2 PPG averages off the waiver wire.  They are always there.  It's the nature of the position.  I have tried to figure out ways to make them meaningful but the fact is they just aren't.  There are too many lumped together to make it worthwhile to waste any meaningful draft capital on one.  

ETA:  As I am sure most can surmise .................this was strictly for IDP FF purposes.  This is not in relation to the real NFL draft.  

 

[MAC_32]

I don't even think that is an appropriate spot.  DB's are like kickers.  They are lumped together and you never know who will be this years top guy.  Plus you can always find one that is within 1 or 2 PPG averages off the waiver wire.  They are always there.  It's the nature of the position.  I have tried to figure out ways to make them meaningful but the fact is they just aren't.  There are too many lumped together to make it worthwhile to waste any meaningful draft capital on one.  

ETA:  As I am sure most can surmise .................this was strictly for IDP FF purposes.  This is not in relation to the real NFL draft.  

I don't disagree in regards to hind sight. Loads of data indicating as such. In practice it's not that simple. That year's surprises are generally functions of injury and/or random big plays. In a shallow enough league a reactive strategy works, but get deep enough and it does not. If your options are full time guys they're almost always deep safeties, which don't score as much.

 

[Gally]

I don't disagree in regards to hind sight. Loads of data indicating as such. In practice it's not that simple. That year's surprises are generally functions of injury and/or random big plays. In a shallow enough league a reactive strategy works, but get deep enough and it does not. If your options are full time guys they're almost always deep safeties, which don't score as much.

But the scoring difference is negligible in the grand scheme of things.  I am in two IDP leagues and they are both large rosters (Zealots - 51-60 man rosters depending on the time of year & a 45 man roster league).  In both of those leagues there are always top 15 DB's available throughout the year.  The point being there are always "surprises" and they are easily found on the waiver wire year to year.  There just isn't enough separation in scoring for the the top 30 guys each year and since nobody knows who those top 30 are going to be you can always find a few on waivers every week.  

 

[MAC_32]

But the scoring difference is negligible in the grand scheme of things.  I am in two IDP leagues and they are both large rosters (Zealots - 51-60 man rosters depending on the time of year & a 45 man roster league).  In both of those leagues there are always top 15 DB's available throughout the year.  The point being there are always "surprises" and they are easily found on the waiver wire year to year.  There just isn't enough separation in scoring for the the top 30 guys each year and since nobody knows who those top 30 are going to be you can always find a few on waivers every week.  

Just poked around in a couple of my leagues. Adrian Phillips (#26) is the best free agent you could have added after week 3 last year in one league and it was Kareem Jackson (#37) in another. Only 2 among the top 30 were free agents at the beginning of the season - Jayron Kearse (#6) and Jalen Thompson (#12) - and the former was a case of the market chasing the wrong box safety in Dallas. I also filtered based on avg ppg to see if there were any low raw total/high pt producers and had to get outside the top 25 before finding any - the sole option (Elijah Riley) was only a full time player in his first game when he wouldn't have been started by a manager. 

I don't think that^^^ is much different than a typical year, but since MFL doesn't make review and validation easy beyond just last year I'm not going any further.

 

[Gally]

Just poked around in a couple of my leagues. Adrian Phillips (#26) is the best free agent you could have added after week 3 last year in one league and it was Kareem Jackson (#37) in another. Only 2 among the top 30 were free agents at the beginning of the season - Jayron Kearse (#6) and Jalen Thompson (#12) - and the former was a case of the market chasing the wrong box safety in Dallas. I also filtered based on avg ppg to see if there were any low raw total/high pt producers and had to get outside the top 25 before finding any - the sole option (Elijah Riley) was only a full time player in his first game when he wouldn't have been started by a manager. 

I don't think that^^^ is much different than a typical year, but since MFL doesn't make review and validation easy beyond just last year I'm not going any further.

I guess my leagues don't value DB's because that is not the case for my leagues.  Another way to look at it though instead of for an entire season of points is in a couple week increments.  Looking at it weekly or every couple of weeks there are always players available for stretches of time.  You can stream a very successful DB room by paying attention to who is playing and who is playing against high volume passing games.  

I may agree that for a full season output guys get procured along the course of the season but for the first 5 weeks of the year how many were available that ended up being picked up and finished as startable?  That is the real test.  

 

[MAC_32]

I guess my leagues don't value DB's because that is not the case for my leagues.  Another way to look at it though instead of for an entire season of points is in a couple week increments.  Looking at it weekly or every couple of weeks there are always players available for stretches of time.  You can stream a very successful DB room by paying attention to who is playing and who is playing against high volume passing games.  

I may agree that for a full season output guys get procured along the course of the season but for the first 5 weeks of the year how many were available that ended up being picked up and finished as startable?  That is the real test.  

It absolutely depends on the league. A couple of mine are shallow enough that I think scouring the inactives would be a viable strategy. I'm not available during that time frame on Sunday's so I've never bothered to see if it is. Each league is different though. Gotta apply strategy based on each one's reality, but that's also why I like leagues with IDP. It's a much more complex puzzle to solve and there's insufficient information made available in a useful format to the market.