Rookie pick values across years (1 Viewer)

[Holy Schneikes]

Just wondering what folks think when trying to move into "this year" using next year's picks. What's reasonable on each side?

For all questions, assume no particular classes (try to avoid thinking about this year in particular please, looking for a generic sense of trade value).

Assume 14 team league.

For the first questions, assume all picks are random in the order (i.e. b4 we know which picks they are).

Obviously, where these picks actually fall would be huge - an early 1st is worth much more than a late 1st, and an early 2nd is worth much more than a late 2nd on average of course. So I included questions about those scenarios as well. Assume an early pick is top 4 (I know 1 could be worth a lot more than 4, but I didn't want to totally overload the poll, so figure a random 1, 2, 3, or 4). Assume a late pick is 11-14. Not doing a middle pick question, because that would probably be roughly the answer to the first question about random picks (that may not be strictly true, but again, don't want to overwhelm).

Now, if you felt like answering those in a generic sense, feel free to post your comments about what kind of impact an ostensibly "deep" class like this one would have on these values.

 

[EBF]

I think it's basically equivalent. 1st this year = 1st next year, 2nd this year = 2nd next year, and so on.

I'd make exceptions for really early picks. For example, I would not trade the 1.03 this year for just a random future 1st. Especially in a 14 team league. However, if I had some sort of magic crystal ball and knew that it would be the 1.03 next year, I think it would be a fair trade.

I'd also make exceptions in cases where I really liked a particular player. For example, if I were somehow convinced that a player available at 2.01 this year was an elite prospect, I would probably be willing to take the "loss" and trade a random future 1st for him.

In general though, I think giving up picks tomorrow for inferior picks today is a losing strategy unless you're just insanely good at identifying the right targets.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I think it's basically equivalent. 1st this year = 1st next year, 2nd this year = 2nd next year, and so on.

I'd make exceptions for really early picks. For example, I would not trade the 1.03 this year for just a random future 1st. Especially in a 14 team league. However, if I had some sort of magic crystal ball and knew that it would be the 1.03 next year, I think it would be a fair trade.

I'd also make exceptions in cases where I really liked a particular player. For example, if I were somehow convinced that a player available at 2.01 this year was an elite prospect, I would probably be willing to take the "loss" and trade a random future 1st for him.

In general though, I think giving up picks tomorrow for inferior picks today is a losing strategy unless you're just insanely good at identifying the right targets.

Thx, interesting. I'm wondering now though if I should have phrased a little differently. Given that the world in general prefers now to later in terms of valued "things", if you wanted a pick/guy NOW, wouldn't you "expect" to pay at least a small premium? I didn't expect many responses in that category to be honest, but it is very interesting take, and maybe there will be more like it.

Of course in a vacuum, a random pick is a random pick and one is the same as the other. But the reality in my mind at least is that you generally expect to PAY that premium to get it NOW. It certainly works that way in the NFL (or anything else for that matter - if you want something now that you can't afford now, you pay what it costs now, plus something).

Or look at the other end. If you had a mid round pick in a random class and somebody through magical means offered you exactly that same pick in next year's draft, wouldn't you in general decline that trade?

 

[GeeYouknit]

If I were to trade away my picks I would want something extra for me "delaying" the talent I would be getting.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think it depends on what the perceived value is between each draft. For example, if I need RBs real bad for my dynasty team I might value 2015 picks more because I think 2015 will be a better year for RBs. If I need WRs I might favor the 2014 draft more.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think there should always be a *tax* on acquiring picks for this current draft. It is an extra year another person has to wait for players to help their team. There are a few exceptions though. If you are in a 12 team league and you have pick 1.11 or 1.12 I would take a first the next year straight up for it. I think that rings true for all rounds.

 

[KellysHeroes]

for a random pick (i guess trade for a 2014 during the 2013 yr) I'd want 1st w/ a 2nd or 3rd, depending on the team coming from.

for 2nds i would want a 1st but have accepted 2nds for 2nds in the past (especially if I'm already overloaded with picks)

for an early 1st I want 2 back

for a late 1st I'd gamble on a 1025 in return

 

[Brewtown]

I think there should always be a *tax* on acquiring picks for this current draft. It is an extra year another person has to wait for players to help their team. There are a few exceptions though. If you are in a 12 team league and you have pick 1.11 or 1.12 I would take a first the next year straight up for it. I think that rings true for all rounds.

I think that their should also always be a running back tax. If you want to trade for one - you need to pay fair value plus the extra running back tax to get one....

 

[Milkman]

If you wait until right before the draft or even during the draft you can maximize the value you receive in return for picks. Teams fall in love with players.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree that there is a "tax" on acquiring this year's pick in general, but I think it's a negligible one and only really comes into play if the two drafts are equally strong/weak. If I'm given the option I want the pick in whichever draft is thought to be the better one, whether that is this year or next year and a 2nd or 3rd round pick thrown in isn't going to change my mind.

I also agree with EBF's point that if I'm in a position to take a guy I really like, I'm not going to trade it for a future 1st even if another 2nd/3rd round pick is thrown in.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Thx all. Results about what I guessed, based on dealings I've had over the last decade or so, but I wanted to sanity check going forward and thought it might at least somewhat interesting/useful for others as well.