Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

I'll leave the other thread for Jeff's discussion and fire up another one here.

First pass at positional rankings of draftable players below. Assumptions include tackle neutral league with 1.5 year window in a moderately deep league. I'll have a final ranking put together by tomorrow evening. Have at it.

Defensive End:

1 Everette Brown (CAR)

2 Brian Orakpo (WAS) -- may be at risk of move to LB after all

3 Tyson Jackson (KC)

4 Aaron Maybin (BUF)

5 Robert Ayers (DEN)

6 Paul Kruger (BAL)

7 Connor Barwin (HOU)

Really unfortunate that things started out so promising with Maybin and Orakpo going to what appeared to be 4-3 roles. It now appears that Orakpo might be a 4-3 SLB and Robert Ayers went to a 3-4 hybrid, as did Paul Kruger. Makes Everette Brown the #1 by default for me at first blush, with Tyson Jackson looking like the only rookie who might have a chance to finish in the top 30 this year.

Defensive Tackle:

1 Peria Jerry (ATL)

2 Ziggy Hood (PIT) -- likely to be reclassified as DE

3 Fili Moala (IND)

4 BJ Raji (GB)

Remains to be seen how each of the above will be used. Hood would be a nice find as a 3-4 end in DT required leagues, but he may not get enough snaps to take advantage. Moala and Jerry may or may not see enough three-technique snaps to warrant much of an immediate investment. All four probably deserve a long look in DT required dynasty leagues, but none are priority targets in DL leagues.

Linebacker:

1 Rey Maualuga (CIN)

2 James Laurinaitis (STL)

3 Aaron Curry (SEA)

4 Brian Cushing (HOU)

5 Clay Matthews (GB)

6 Clint Sintim (NYG)

7 Larry English (SD)

8 Cody Brown (ARI)

I think Maualuga plays every down (almost by default) by 2010, and his big play value gives him the slight long term edge over Laurinaitis today. That could change, as could Curry's ranking if the Seahawks hint that he'll play an every down WLB role. I like Cushing, but not over the big three. At least one of the third tier backers are going to crack the top six tomorrow.

Cornerback:

1 Malcolm Jenkins (NO)

2 Vontae Davis (MIA)

3 Jairus Byrd (BUF)

Need to look more at this group, but these are the only three I'd draft tonight, and I'd really only consider Jenkins, who should be a solid DB for years in all leagues if he plays to his scouting report.

Safety:

1 William Moore (ATL)

2 Michael Mitchell (OAK)

3 Patrick Chung (NE)

4 Louis Delmas (DET)

Hard not to buy into Mitchell's hand-picked highlight reel and Tom Cable's praise, but we've been down this road with Raider DBs before. He could be the #1 ranked rookie DB by midsummer. Hard not to like Moore's skill set and opportunity, though, and I think Chung has top 20 potential by 2010 if not sooner. Can't ignore a Detroit safety right now, especially one that can support the run given the hole that continues to exist at MLB.

Overall Top 10:

01 Rey Maualuga

02 James Laurinaitis

03 Aaron Curry

04 Brian Cushing

05 William Moore

06 Michael Mitchell

07 Malcolm Jenkins

08 Everette Brown

09 Brian Orakpo

10 Clay Matthews

This is not a particularly strong group and I'd bet that a few second day guys crack this list. I'd like to see where Michael Johnson and any number of those third tier LB prospects land. Still, I think this group won't go much deeper than this and it's going to be the better than expected slots for the safety group that may end up carrying this year's group unless we see some linebacker fireworks tomorrow.

 

[J Giles Band]

I'm in agreement across the board.

Pretty excited about the opportunity for Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis at MLB in the Bengals and Rams porous defenses. And to a slightly lesser extent intrigued by William Moore at SS for the Falcons. I think Malcolm Jenkins and Vontae Davis can both be solid tackling corners who have the rookie CB rule apply the added opportunity boost.

 

[SlevinKelevra]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=466141



LeRoy Hill-LB- Seahawks

Apr. 26 - 12:37 am et

NFL Network's Mike Lombardi reports that the Seahawks have taken the franchise tag off LB LeRoy Hill,

making him a free agent.

A stunner. We didn't quite see how rookie Aaron Curry and Hill fit together, but we figured Seattle would find room for their solid veteran player. Hill immediately becomes the best free agent on the market, but we don't think he'll find a deal as big as the $36 million offer he rejected from Seattle earlier this year.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Sucks that Curry, apparently, looks to have gone to a situation that limits his fantasy potential. I was targeting him in an upcoming rookie draft, and I'm really not excited to go with Maualuga now - little worried about how far he fell.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Ugh, only three reasonable prospects during the second day of the draft -- Deandre Levy, Michael Johnson and Lawrence Sidbury. A few projectable backup ILBs and SSs, but nothing exciting. Really thin crop this year unfortunately. May not be a stud in the mix and the upside takes a huge drop very early.

Rankings will be up later this evening.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Any hybrid LB/DE types that might be quite valuable in more big play valued scoring systems? I my IDP dynasty league a sack is worth 5 solo tackles or 10 assisted tackles and an interception or a forced fumble are very valuable as well. Guys like Merriman, Ware, Harrison, etc. that get a lot of big plays rushing off the edge outscore even the stud tackle numbers of guys like Willis, Ryans, etc. Any of these hybrid types that I'd want to keep an eye on this year that could make a big impact in a similar mode? They tend to not get much mention in analyses like this due to their lower value in tackle-heavy systems.

 

[T Bell]

Do you guys have any opinions as to how to rank the DT's for leagues that separate them from the DE's? I'm assuming that Jerry is the front-runner here as a one-gapper playing in a one-gap system in ATL, correct?

Any hybrid LB/DE types that might be quite valuable in more big play valued scoring systems? I my IDP dynasty league a sack is worth 5 solo tackles or 10 assisted tackles and an interception or a forced fumble are very valuable as well. Guys like Merriman, Ware, Harrison, etc. that get a lot of big plays rushing off the edge outscore even the stud tackle numbers of guys like Willis, Ryans, etc. Any of these hybrid types that I'd want to keep an eye on this year that could make a big impact in a similar mode? They tend to not get much mention in analyses like this due to their lower value in tackle-heavy systems.

Orakpo seems to stand out with that criteria, but it's not yet clear that they'll make him a true hybrid like Suggs or Ware.Also, you should consider Matthews, who is listed as an OLB but whose strength is pass rushing. He may be able to become another James Harrison type.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Big play leaguers should give a small bump to Aaron Maybin on the DL -- his lack of run support ability won't be as big an issue in a sack heavy system. I'm not ready to get excited about any of the tweeners yet. Brian Orakpo would seem to have an every-down role for the taking and his stat lines (if he produces) will be heavily big play skewed. Robert Ayers, Paul Kruger, Larry English, Clay Matthews are all tweeners, but I don't see double digit sacks in any of their immediate futures. If I had to target any of them, it'd be Maybin at DL, and Orakpo, Matthews and Ayers at LB. I'd watch English closely. The others can sit until they look likely to win some snaps.

At DT, it's Jerry and then everyone else for me. Raji might be a DT2 in a sack heavy league. I like Jarron Gilbert, but he might not get enough high leverage snaps behind Tommie Harris. Fili Moala might not get many three-technique snaps in Indy, but is worth watching. Hood could surprise as a DT1, but may be reclassified to DE. For now, those are the only five I'd consider drafting. Among the others, I'd watch Dorell Scott's preseason progress to see how Spagnuolo uses him.

 

[Biabreakable]

I just found this and thought it was interesting.

HEALTHY COMPETITION

''It's going to be a competitive position, no doubt about it,'' Ireland said. ``We felt like we had a couple guys on the board that can make us more competitive at the position. We need to figure out what we got, but I feel like we have helped ourselves there.

``We got some size and some physicality.''

After addressing a considerable need at wide receiver Sunday, the Dolphins geared the rest of their draft toward picking up a plethora of players at multiple positions that seem -- at least on the surface-- to be developmental projects.

The team picked up a tight end (John Nalbone), a safety (Chris Clemons) and a tackle (Andrew Gardner), each of whom would have to become major surprises if they are going to vie for playing time this year, considering the landscape of their positions.

Miami has players returning from last season who are likely to start at tight end, both safety spots and both tackle spots.

There is no mistaking one aspect of Sunday's additions: Miami is still searching for size. The wide receivers stand 6-2 and 6-5; Nalbone is 6-4, 251 pounds, and Gardner is 6-7, 304 pounds.

Despite expectations that Miami would focus on the defense's front seven -- including the outside linebacker spot -- Ireland and Parcells clearly had a different plan.

It wasn't until the Dolphins' first pick of the seventh round that they landed a linebacker in J.D. Folsom, who said Sunday that he expects to be playing on the inside rather than on the outside.

That suggests Miami will further entertain the possibility of a reunion with former Dolphins star Jason Taylor. The Dolphins initially planned to evaluate their draft class before thinking more about the possibility, but without any outside linebackers chosen in any of the early rounds, it would seem logical

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football...ry/1019353.htmlI realize this is just a 7th round pick and likely a backup/special teams player at best. But you never know?

Analysis

Positives: Excellent height and upper body strength. Generally holds up against blocks from offensive tackles at the line when playing the nine-technique spot. Smart player, stays at home instead of biting on misdirection. Comes hard on the blitz. Good straight-linbe speed and hustles downfield to get in on tackles even if the ballcarrier is tied up. Willing to blow up smaller receivers in his path. Could be successful as a special teams player.

Negatives: Not as strong in the lower body, is a bit of a safety/linebacker 'tweener. Stiff in the hips and upper body, struggles to change directions in space. Does not get off blocks or get home on blizes as much as you'd like. Suspended for the first half of the first game of 2008 by the Big Sky Conference after being ejected for kicking a Eastern Washington player in 2007 regular season finale. Will turn 25 in August 2009, served a two-year LDS mission from 2004-2005.

Injury Report

No significant injuries reported.

Copyright NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange

Also the Taylor rumours continue.

 

[lyon812]

I'm curious about your Cushing ranking. While I think he's a good player, you have him as the 4th best LB. However, he's going to play strong side from what I've gathered. Wouldn't that place him further down the list? Or is this simply because the talent dropoff is so huge?

By the way, I read your Defensive Schemes series for the first time and think I've learned more about defenses in the last few days than I have in the previous 36 years. Thank you.

 

[duece2626]

I'm curious about your Cushing ranking. While I think he's a good player, you have him as the 4th best LB. However, he's going to play strong side from what I've gathered. Wouldn't that place him further down the list? Or is this simply because the talent dropoff is so huge? By the way, I read your Defensive Schemes series for the first time and think I've learned more about defenses in the last few days than I have in the previous 36 years. Thank you.

Diles was leading the team in tackles as the SLB before he broke his leg.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

I'm curious about your Cushing ranking. While I think he's a good player, you have him as the 4th best LB. However, he's going to play strong side from what I've gathered. Wouldn't that place him further down the list? Or is this simply because the talent dropoff is so huge? By the way, I read your Defensive Schemes series for the first time and think I've learned more about defenses in the last few days than I have in the previous 36 years. Thank you.

Diles was leading the team in tackles as the SLB before he broke his leg.

that was with a Demeco Ryans playing hurt all year and before Adibi started dominating snaps on the weakside

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm curious about your Cushing ranking. While I think he's a good player, you have him as the 4th best LB. However, he's going to play strong side from what I've gathered. Wouldn't that place him further down the list? Or is this simply because the talent dropoff is so huge? By the way, I read your Defensive Schemes series for the first time and think I've learned more about defenses in the last few days than I have in the previous 36 years. Thank you.

I'm still deciding what to do inside that second tier -- Cushing, Levy and Moore. The SLB spot isn't a particularly tackle heavy one, but the last few years have seen quite a few every-down players on that side put up 80+ solos and a handful of big plays. At one time, it was Anthony Simmons and no one else. Of late, we've seen Michael Boley, Chad Greenway, Zac Diles (although he played away from the TE plenty), Scott Fujita and others have plenty of value.I think Cushing, in an every-down role, is versatile and talented enough to approach 80-85 solos. That's a marginal starter in most leagues and his floor isn't much lower. In the FBG default scoring system, I'm not sure there's anyone else in this group with a better risk-reward profile. Everette Brown and Michael Johnson might crack the top 15 in the future as may any of the four top DBs, but I Cushing's upside and floor combination wins the day for now. DeAndre Levy is the wildcard for me. On one hand, his scouting reports would strongly suggest that he won't be a particularly stout MLB. He's also not guaranteed an every-down role unless Julian Peterson plays end on nickel downs. But Jim Schwartz had plenty of opportunities to grab a guy with a prettier scouting report and had nice things to say in his press conference. Assuming it was his call, that's a pretty good vote of confidence.Anyway, in this group, Cushing doesn't fall out of the top ten if he holds an every-down job and I doubt any of the 3-4 OLBs look impressive enough to knock him out of the top five LBs in our scoring system by September.Glad you liked the scheme series. It was a lot of fun to write.

 

[duece2626]

I'm curious about your Cushing ranking. While I think he's a good player, you have him as the 4th best LB. However, he's going to play strong side from what I've gathered. Wouldn't that place him further down the list? Or is this simply because the talent dropoff is so huge? By the way, I read your Defensive Schemes series for the first time and think I've learned more about defenses in the last few days than I have in the previous 36 years. Thank you.

Diles was leading the team in tackles as the SLB before he broke his leg.

that was with a Demeco Ryans playing hurt all year and before Adibi started dominating snaps on the weakside

Did Adibi even start playing before Diles got hurt?

 

[Weiner Dog]

I'm curious about your Cushing ranking. While I think he's a good player, you have him as the 4th best LB. However, he's going to play strong side from what I've gathered. Wouldn't that place him further down the list? Or is this simply because the talent dropoff is so huge? By the way, I read your Defensive Schemes series for the first time and think I've learned more about defenses in the last few days than I have in the previous 36 years. Thank you.

I'm still deciding what to do inside that second tier -- Cushing, Levy and Moore. The SLB spot isn't a particularly tackle heavy one, but the last few years have seen quite a few every-down players on that side put up 80+ solos and a handful of big plays. At one time, it was Anthony Simmons and no one else. Of late, we've seen Michael Boley, Chad Greenway, Zac Diles (although he played away from the TE plenty), Scott Fujita and others have plenty of value.I think Cushing, in an every-down role, is versatile and talented enough to approach 80-85 solos. That's a marginal starter in most leagues and his floor isn't much lower. In the FBG default scoring system, I'm not sure there's anyone else in this group with a better risk-reward profile. Everette Brown and Michael Johnson might crack the top 15 in the future as may any of the four top DBs, but I Cushing's upside and floor combination wins the day for now. DeAndre Levy is the wildcard for me. On one hand, his scouting reports would strongly suggest that he won't be a particularly stout MLB. He's also not guaranteed an every-down role unless Julian Peterson plays end on nickel downs. But Jim Schwartz had plenty of opportunities to grab a guy with a prettier scouting report and had nice things to say in his press conference. Assuming it was his call, that's a pretty good vote of confidence.Anyway, in this group, Cushing doesn't fall out of the top ten if he holds an every-down job and I doubt any of the 3-4 OLBs look impressive enough to knock him out of the top five LBs in our scoring system by September.Glad you liked the scheme series. It was a lot of fun to write.

As you mentioned repeatedly, Cushing's 3-down status is in question. Correct me if I'm wrong...wasn't Cushing's coverage ability his #1 flaw entering the draft? If so, do you think he could earn a 3-down role by 1) default b/c of average (at best) LB talent outside of Ryans or 2) improvement in his coverage ability based on athletic ability?It would be great to attach Cushing to the current BIG 3 LB's (Curry, Luarantitis, Rey) for FF purposes, but I'm also having a hard time doing so.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Correct me if I'm wrong...wasn't Cushing's coverage ability his #1 flaw entering the draft? If so, do you think he could earn a 3-down role by 1) default b/c of average (at best) LB talent outside of Ryans or 2) improvement in his coverage ability based on athletic ability?It would be great to attach Cushing to the current BIG 3 LB's (Curry, Luarantitis, Rey) for FF purposes, but I'm also having a hard time doing so.

I agree that Cushing's upside is not close to that of the consensus top three, even if/when he plays every down. I just don't see 90 solos for him on the strong side.My impression of Cushing's scouting reports is that he's both versatile and athletic and projects well in coverage. It's his durability that seems to be the major question. I doubt the Texans would've drafted him in the first round -- with Diles, Adibi and June already on the roster -- if they didn't see him as an every down prospect. It's possible that the Texans use June in the nickel packages instead, but I think he's ahead of Diles and Adibi on the nickel depth charts if he signs and gets enough snaps early in camp.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Correct me if I'm wrong...wasn't Cushing's coverage ability his #1 flaw entering the draft? If so, do you think he could earn a 3-down role by 1) default b/c of average (at best) LB talent outside of Ryans or 2) improvement in his coverage ability based on athletic ability?It would be great to attach Cushing to the current BIG 3 LB's (Curry, Luarantitis, Rey) for FF purposes, but I'm also having a hard time doing so.

I agree that Cushing's upside is not close to that of the consensus top three, even if/when he plays every down. I just don't see 90 solos for him on the strong side.My impression of Cushing's scouting reports is that he's both versatile and athletic and projects well in coverage. It's his durability that seems to be the major question. I doubt the Texans would've drafted him in the first round -- with Diles, Adibi and June already on the roster -- if they didn't see him as an every down prospect. It's possible that the Texans use June in the nickel packages instead, but I think he's ahead of Diles and Adibi on the nickel depth charts if he signs and gets enough snaps early in camp.

If the guy can play every down (...even at SLB), Rey-Rey may have competition in FF drafts with possibly being only a 2-down LB.