Rookie Tiers (1 Viewer)

[Matt's Eagles]

Didn't see anything on this....this class doesn't look to deep, maybe it will look better after the draft?

Here are my tiers until around pick 11...I am sure there will be a WR/RB that gets added as well as 3-6 QBs..

T1: Elliott
T2: Treadwell
T3: Thomas/Shepard/Coleman/Henry/Doctson/Carroo
T4: Prosise/Dixon
T5: Everyone else....

 

[Aunt Jemima]

for me, swap Dixon into T3, Drop Henry into T4 and add Jonathan Williams to T4. Pretty close actually

 

[spider321]

I'd put Doctson and Coleman in tier 2 with Treadwell, Boyd in tier 3, and Thomas in tier 4.

Fuller probably belongs in tier 3 or 4, too.

 

[spider321]

T1: Elliott (if he goes to Browns, the WR's join him in tier 1)

T2: Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman

T3: Henry, Boyd, Shepard, Fuller, Carroo

T4: Dixon, Prosise, Booker, Thomas, Collins

 

[Soulfly3]

T1 - Elliott, Coleman

T2 - Treadwell Doctson Fuller

T3 - everyone else

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't understand what these tiers are meant to represent.

 

[Tool]

It will change depending on where everyone ends up.

And also PPR vs. Non -PPR

Don't see how Henry isn't tier 2 in Non -PPR leagues.

 

[mikel2014]

T1: Elliott (if he goes to Browns, the WR's join him in tier 1)

T2: Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman

T3: Henry, Boyd, Shepard, Fuller, Carroo

T4: Dixon, Prosise, Booker, Thomas, Collins

This is nearly identical to how I have it. I'd add Dixon to T3 and Paul Perkins to T4

 

[Biabreakable]

Here are the rookies tiered based on hat size:

Tier 1

Derrick Henry
Braxton Miller
Laquon Treadwell
Tyler Boyd
Mike Thomas

Tier 2

Pharoh Cooper (not technically a hat)
Jordan Howard
Michael Thomas
Alex Collins
Ezekiel Elliot

Tier 3 players without hats

CJ Prosise
Kenneth Dixon
Carey Coleman
Will Fuller
Sterling Shepherd

 

[spider321]

Here are the rookies tiered based on hat size:

We get it.  There are other threads.

 

[spider321]

Zeke to Cleveland and Hue might not be such a bad thing. Hue loves to run the ball,

Yeah, but it's tough to run when you're down 3 TD's at halftime every week.

 

[beef]

Tiers > rankings

No matter what style of draft i always tier the players.  Even for trades.  The player I have at 8 i might value closer to 5 or 6 than 9.  and if I have 9 and that tier includes 10-12 Ill be trying to trade down with one of those 10-12 owners.

 

[Run It Up]

For me

T1: Elliot
T2: Doctson, Treadwell
T3: Coleman, Thomas (OSU), Carroo
T4: Prosise, Shepard, Dixon, Booker, Marshall
T5: D. Henry, W. Fuller*

*I'll pass tier

 

[Pwingles]

Elliot

Treadwell, coleman, doctson

Dixon, Booker, Caroo, Shepard, H. Henry

Boyd, Fuller, Henry, Procise, Thomas

Marshall, Collins, Miller, Mitchell, Peak

 

[Snorkelson]

2017 tier 1

2016 tier 3......

kick it down the road

 

[JohnnyU]

Here are the rookies tiered based on hat size:

Tier 1

Derrick Henry
Braxton Miller
Laquon Treadwell
Tyler Boyd
Mike Thomas

Tier 2

Pharoh Cooper (not technically a hat)
Jordan Howard
Michael Thomas
Alex Collins
Ezekiel Elliot

Tier 3 players without hats

CJ Prosise
Kenneth Dixon
Carey Coleman
Will Fuller
Sterling Shepherd

 

[FUBAR]

thanks to those who posted more than 12 players.  I have late 1sts (14-28) in a couple large IDP leagues and this helps get a rough estimate on those picks.  The top IDP (I suspect Ragland) will start to creep in around #14 or so I'd think if he goes to a good spot. 

anyone listing Elliott in tier 2 might as well list him as undraftable.

ETA:  surprised to see nobody include QBs yet.  Would think they'd be around the Prosise / Dixon / Fuller tier.

 

[Crippler]

thanks to those who posted more than 12 players.  I have late 1sts (14-28) in a couple large IDP leagues and this helps get a rough estimate on those picks.  The top IDP (I suspect Ragland) will start to creep in around #14 or so I'd think if he goes to a good spot. 

anyone listing Elliott in tier 2 might as well list him as undraftable.

ETA:  surprised to see nobody include QBs yet.  Would think they'd be around the Prosise / Dixon / Fuller tier.

Why Ragland. He is more of a thumper. You want speed to play all three downs. I would think Jacks and Lee go ahead of him. Depending on league scoring, I could see Bosa being top d player as DE is so hard to find these days. Too bad DT is usually not a fantasy force as strength of this draft. Jalen Ramsey might end up a little higher if he plays S but this unit is not bad overall down the line

 

[FUBAR]

Why Ragland. He is more of a thumper. You want speed to play all three downs. I would think Jacks and Lee go ahead of him. Depending on league scoring, I could see Bosa being top d player as DE is so hard to find these days. Too bad DT is usually not a fantasy force as strength of this draft. Jalen Ramsey might end up a little higher if he plays S but this unit is not bad overall down the line

most of my leagues are tackle heavy, Jack and Lee seem more likely to be Von Miller light than rack up the tackles.  I could be wrong and either could be among the Telvin Smith, Jamie Collins, Thomas Davis OLBs who produce well in FF, but usually MLBs are more consistent and more valuable in my leagues.  I'd have a real hard time drafting Bosa above these LBs, even with DE being harder to find.

Also, I think Ragland plays all 3 downs at least fairly often.  seems versatile enough to me

 

[Biabreakable]

He doesn't wear very big hats... it is what it is..

 

[Biabreakable]

On a more serious note I think these tiers needs some context for them to be meaningful tiers. I agree with beef that tiering is better than ranking. In a ranking you could have tow players right next to each other yet the second one might only be worth 70% of the player ranked right ahead of them if that is where the tier break falls.

Having some context about what the tiers represent allows for a better understanding on what that ranker thinks of the relative value of players. All players within a tier should be pretty close to the same value, otherwise they should be separated into separate tiers.

For rookie players it is all a projection. We don't know how good these players will be at the NFL level.

These are quantitative ways to measure players potential success but none of them are very reliable from a predictive sense, the most reliable being draft position, which we do not know yet. So what I have tired to do is create rankings based on rookie players upside. What is the highest level that I can see them performing at during their careers and I separate players into 3 tiers which represent players that I think have top 12 upside in FF. Those who have 13-24 upside for fantasy and the third tier is for players who I think can be 25-36 at their position and I don't see a lot of upside for their success in FF.

These tiers are formed with the idea in mind that if a player is drafted a lot higher than I was expecting them to be, they go move up a tier and similarly if they are drafted later than I expect they can fall a tier.

I did not watch nearly as many players leigable for 2016 as I did the previous two seasons. I find myself still ranking these rookies in my mind compared to players I watched the last couple of years. Maybe that isn't fair because 2014 was perhaps the best skill position draft I have seen in 20+ years of following the draft.

That sets a high standard. But that is what I am trying to do. To project for a players upside.

Posted my tiers on 31 March based on the above criteria and I think my guessing is getting a bit better due to using the same process for several years in a row now. There are a lot of things I would like to do to improve my processes and make them more accurate and foundational,

I didn't do rookie polls this year and I find that process usually helps me form better rankings. But this year I didn't do that. 

Anyhow here are my tiers:

1st tier

Ezekiel Elliot
Josh Doctson
Corey Coleman
Laquon Treadwell
Devontae Booker

2nd tier

Derrick Henry
Will Fuller
Michael Thomas
Alex Collins
Sterling Shepherd
Tyler Boyd
Mike Thomas
Kenneth Dixon

3rd tier 

Pharoh Cooper
Leonte Carroo
Jordan Howard
Rashard Higgins
DeAndre Washington
Braxton Miller
CJ Prosise

 

[Ditka Butkus]

Apparently his head size is not too impressive

 

[Biabreakable]

Apparently his head size is not too impressive

Yeah he is borderline. Maybe belongs in the without hats category.

 

[Ditka Butkus]

Yeah he is borderline. Maybe belongs in the without hats category.

That's a shame...I really liked him prior to this information..

 

[menobrown]

It will change depending on where everyone ends up.

And also PPR vs. Non -PPR

Yes it will change post draft but here is my pre-draft PPR, 1.5 PPR TE tiers:

Tier 1: Elliot

Tier 2(which almost is more like Tier 3 the drop from one is so huge): Doctson, Treadwell, Coleman

Tier 3; Dixon, D Henry, Booker, Michael Thomas, Shepard, Boyd, H Henry.

Tier 4: Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Prosise, Perkins, Drake, Peake

 

[spider321]

I'm thinking Dynasty Format. You think the Browns will have that issue for years to come?

They're the Browns.

So yes.

 

[Biabreakable]

That's actually funny. I get it, but I think he will be fine in Cleveland. I finally think the Browns are on the right track and got a decent head coach and front office. You never know  though and can see why some people would hesitate. I think if that's the case I would try to move into the  1.1.

I remember thinking that when they drafted Trent Richardson.

Nope still the Browns.

 

[Pwingles]

here i am, sitting at the 1.03, hoping treadwell goes somewhere crazy like NO, and henry goes to Dal so maybe i have a shot at zeke lol

 

[Dan Hindery]

It could be a rough week for people sitting on 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, etc.

Because most of the buzz has the top WRs going to places that might be pretty rough fantasy landing spots. Treadwell has been mentioned with Buffalo and Minnesota. Coleman mainly Houston and Cincinnati. Doctson some of those same teams. A lot of these top guys are going to end up on relatively run-heavy teams as clear #2 receivers. 

 

[ILUVBEER99]

here i am, sitting at the 1.03, hoping treadwell goes somewhere crazy like NO, and henry goes to Dal so maybe i have a shot at zeke lol

someone would have to be insane to pass on Zeke for henry or Treadwell, regardless of where Zeke goes.

Back in the LT/Bennett draft some people took Bennett over the #4 pick LT due to situation.  It makes no sense to pick a RB drafted late 1st/early 2nd over one drafted in the top 10

 

[Biabreakable]

With Houston, Buffalo and Cincinatti they would be clear #2 WR. With the Vikings most of them would be a WR 1 but with an offense that might not be capable of producing WR1 numbers for fantasy in the short term.

 

[Pwingles]

someone would have to be insane to pass on Zeke for henry or Treadwell, regardless of where Zeke goes.

Back in the LT/Bennett draft some people took Bennett over the #4 pick LT due to situation.  It makes no sense to pick a RB drafted late 1st/early 2nd over one drafted in the top 10

i agree. outside of him blowing out his knee tomorrow, idc where he lands, he is no1 on my board.

but, i have a  noob and a dallas homer in front of me, so i can dream cant i?

 

[menobrown]

It could be a rough week for people sitting on 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, etc.

Because most of the buzz has the top WRs going to places that might be pretty rough fantasy landing spots. Treadwell has been mentioned with Buffalo and Minnesota. Coleman mainly Houston and Cincinnati. Doctson some of those same teams. A lot of these top guys are going to end up on relatively run-heavy teams as clear #2 receivers. 

Agree. Most of the teams linked to WR's in round one are not good spots. That Houston, Vikings, Bengals stretch at 22-24 is like WR murderers row, well I guess depending on how you feel about those places which to me are terrible to average. KC lurking back at 28 does not get me juiced up either.

With WR I think most people try and put talent over situation much more than RB but to some degree current situation has to be figured into the cost. Which makes me think patient owners who are willing to allow time for the talent to work itself out overtime might see some nice mid first round bargains.

But I'd also add when you look at teams who are often linked to taking WR's in the second round it's not a pleasant looking group either. Teams like Bills for instance are terrible but at least second round might offer chance for team like Giants or Saints to address WR because I'll tell you with 100% fact right now those teams are not taking Treadwell or any WR at picks 10 and 12.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

i agree. outside of him blowing out his knee tomorrow, idc where he lands, he is no1 on my board.

but, i have a  noob and a dallas homer in front of me, so i can dream cant i?

 Anything can happen.  there might be a couple clueless people who pass on him if he goes to CLE.  

Keep your dream alive, who knows, it might come true.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Agree. Most of the teams linked to WR's in round one are not good spots. That Houston, Vikings, Bengals stretch at 22-24 is like WR murderers row, well I guess depending on how you feel about those places which to me are terrible to average. KC lurking back at 28 does not get me juiced up either.

With WR I think most people try and put talent over situation much more than RB but to some degree current situation has to be figured into the cost. Which makes me think patient owners who are willing to allow time for the talent to work itself out overtime might see some nice mid first round bargains.

But I'd also add when you look at teams who are often linked to taking WR's in the second round it's not a pleasant looking group either. Teams like Bills for instance are terrible but at least second round might offer chance for team like Giants or Saints to address WR because I'll tell you with 100% fact right now those teams are not taking Treadwell or any WR at picks 10 and 12.

Yeah, exactly. Peter King's mock draft today had:

Fuller to Houston

Doctson to Minnesota

Coleman to Cincinnati

Treadwell to Kansas City

Only Doctson would have a clear path to leading his team in targets and Minny was dead last with only 28 passing attempts per game. So still not a great bet for volume. 

And that mock looks pretty realistic to me. Pretty good chance that Fuller/Coleman end up going 22 and 24 in some order. 

 

[Pwingles]

if those were the landing spots, in what order do you take them in a rookie draft?

 

[Dan Hindery]

if those were the landing spots, in what order do you take them in a rookie draft?

Personally, I'd go Doctson, Treadwell, Coleman and then Fuller if those were the landing spots.

More of a long-term bet on Teddy and Doctson as I wouldn't expect big numbers early. But once ADP moves on and that teams starts to lean more heavily on the passing game, there's some potential upside there. 

I have Henry 5th today, but I'd be pretty tempted to bump him up to 2 or 3 if he landed in a good spot and went top 40 overall and the WR spots end up being as rough as it looks like they might be. 

 

[Shutout]

My biggest concern in this draft is that I feel like I've seen this play out so many times. It goes like this: There is this ONE guy that the entire world loves and raves about. Let's protect the names of the innocent here and instead of calling him Elliot, let's refer to him as Rent Tichardson. 

So, everyone is infactuated with how Rent Tichardson is just SO far out in front of everyone else that they discount the value of the other guys and they start talking about how this year is "not deep" and not that great once you get past about 5-7 guys.  Again, to protect the innocent, let's call this a "2013-ism". 

So when everyone is down on the 2013-ism and only have eyes for Rent Tichardson, they completely miss a different position's largely overlooked value, like in the 2013-ism when TEs (Reed, Kelce, Ertz,..to a degree, Eifert) and IDP lbers and even some WRs and RBs were generally undervalued. 

I think, like most drafts tend to end up, there is quite a bit of ff value to be had in this draft but I get the feeling this is going to be a year where a lot of people sell or trade down because they don't feel the value is there.  

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Personally, I'd go Doctson, Treadwell, Coleman and then Fuller if those were the landing spots.

More of a long-term bet on Teddy and Doctson as I wouldn't expect big numbers early. But once ADP moves on and that teams starts to lean more heavily on the passing game, there's some potential upside there. 

I have Henry 5th today, but I'd be pretty tempted to bump him up to 2 or 3 if he landed in a good spot and went top 40 overall and the WR spots end up being as rough as it looks like they might be. 

If Henry goes to DAL in the 2nd round i think he'll move up to consensus #2 rookie pick, then the WR's.  None of the WR's look like they are going in the top 15 of draft.

 

[Dan Hindery]

My biggest concern in this draft is that I feel like I've seen this play out so many times. It goes like this: There is this ONE guy that the entire world loves and raves about. Let's protect the names of the innocent here and instead of calling him Elliot, let's refer to him as Rent Tichardson. 

So, everyone is infactuated with how Rent Tichardson is just SO far out in front of everyone else that they discount the value of the other guys and they start talking about how this year is "not deep" and not that great once you get past about 5-7 guys.  Again, to protect the innocent, let's call this a "2013-ism". 

So when everyone is down on the 2013-ism and only have eyes for Rent Tichardson, they completely miss a different position's largely overlooked value, like in the 2013-ism when TEs (Reed, Kelce, Ertz,..to a degree, Eifert) and IDP lbers and even some WRs and RBs were generally undervalued. 

I think, like most drafts tend to end up, there is quite a bit of ff value to be had in this draft but I get the feeling this is going to be a year where a lot of people sell or trade down because they don't feel the value is there.  

I don't think round 2 and 3 are much weaker than normal. I play PPR only and there are a good number of intriguing RBs who are good in the passing game who could end up being steals for example. Maybe not quite Devonta Freeman level, but there are some mid-round guys who have that big PPR upside. I also think a guy like Wentz with some rushing ability is an interesting round 2 or 3 target. If Hunter Henry falls, he's a nice upside 2nd rounder too. 

There are less sure things after Zeke and the first round is weaker than normal though. I've been saying that since February before the combine. Rookie drafts are still the lifeblood of a dynasty team and I wouldn't sell picks real cheaply, but I also haven't gone out of my way to load up on 2016 picks like I do most years. And outside of #1, I'd be more interested in trading down and accumulating extra picks/players instead of trading up to target anyone else. 

 

[WheelsUp]

off the top of my head without looking at rankings

Ezekiel Elliot
Laquon Treadwell Corey Coleman Josh Doctson
Derrick Henry Sterling Shepard
Devontae Booker Will Fuller Alex Collins
Tyler Boyd Michael Thomas

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My biggest concern in this draft is that I feel like I've seen this play out so many times. It goes like this: There is this ONE guy that the entire world loves and raves about. Let's protect the names of the innocent here and instead of calling him Elliot, let's refer to him as Rent Tichardson. 

So, everyone is infactuated with how Rent Tichardson is just SO far out in front of everyone else that they discount the value of the other guys and they start talking about how this year is "not deep" and not that great once you get past about 5-7 guys.  Again, to protect the innocent, let's call this a "2013-ism". 

So when everyone is down on the 2013-ism and only have eyes for Rent Tichardson, they completely miss a different position's largely overlooked value, like in the 2013-ism when TEs (Reed, Kelce, Ertz,..to a degree, Eifert) and IDP lbers and even some WRs and RBs were generally undervalued. 

I think, like most drafts tend to end up, there is quite a bit of ff value to be had in this draft but I get the feeling this is going to be a year where a lot of people sell or trade down because they don't feel the value is there.  

"Rent Tichardson"  was in the 2012 class there buck-o.

2013 had no consensus #1.

 

[Biabreakable]

I was digging around in some of my old notes earlier today and I found a list of consensus rankings from 2013. Not sure how many different sources went into this list but I usually do at least nine.

2013 consensus list 

Cordarrelle Patterson 3
Keenan Allen 3
Tavon Austin 3.19
 
DeAndre Hopkins 4.31
Robert Woods 5.5
 
Quinton Patton 7
Justin Hunter 7.56
Markus Wheaton 7.87
 
Terrance Williams 10
Stedman Bailey 10.13
Da'Rick Rogers 10.13
 
Aaron Dobson 13
Ryan Swope 13.56
 
Marquise Goodwin 15.07
Kenny Stills 15.33
Chris Harper 15.33
 
Denard Robinson 17.45
Tavarres King 17.6
Cobi Hamilton 17.83
 
Aaron Mellette 20.07
Josh Boyce 20.1
Corey Fuller 21.27
Ace Sanders 21.16
Marcus Davis 22.71
Conner Vernon 22.33
Marquess Wilson 25.14
Mark Harrison 28.5

Those are just the WR didn't see a RB list or other positions for consensus lists I gathered.

Here is a 2013 RB discussion and lists.

Sounds like I gathered 19 sources so not bad. The RB.

Lacy
Franklin
Bernard
Ball
Ellington
Bell
Michael
Randle
Gillislee
Taylor
Lattimore
Stacy
Davis

Here is my late 2013 list that I am not too proud of because I think my earlier lists may have been better than after I tried to incorporate draft position, fit and pre season into the rankings. Especially preseason.

August 29 2013

Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Travis Kelce
Zac Stacy
Monte Ball
LeVeon Bell
Keenan Allen
Stedman Bailey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
EJ Manuel
Marcus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Kenny Stills
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Zach Ertz
Knile Davis
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
Marquise Goodwin
Justin Hunter
 
The remaining players I consider more on watch status than players I would roster right now (depends on roster size of course).
 
Mike Glennon
Jordan Reed
Josh Boyce
Tavarres King
Charles Johnson
Stepfan Taylor
Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Kenjon Barner
Levine Toilolono
Marquess Wilson
Johnathan Franklin
Gavin Escobar
Nate Sudfeld
Justin Brown
Michael Cox
Aaron Mellette - perhaps Marlon Brown instead.

 

[menobrown]

Yeah, exactly. Peter King's mock draft today had:

Fuller to Houston

Doctson to Minnesota

Coleman to Cincinnati

Treadwell to Kansas City

Peter King is not good at mock drafts, I think he's only got like 5 first round picks correct over last two years. But in this case the teams are the same teams I've seen linked to WR in almost every credible mock with the exception of Kansas City. The WR's tend to change from team to team with only constants are Texans want a speed guy and Texans, Vikings and Bengals are always taking a WR.

That was until I saw this from PFF mock draft 6.0 and I don't know their history of credibility on mocks but Joe Banner tweeted out it was the most accurate one he had seen. A draft like that would seriously alter a  bunch of people's tiers:

1.8 Coleman to Browns

Elliot to Dolphins 

Doctons to Falcons

Shepard to Texans

Thomas to Vikings

Hunter Henry to Denver

They are just mocksand of course could be wildly different but you all catch a trend from Kings and PFF's? Treadwell stock falling. Also heard a few weeks ago talk that Treadwell was one of big fallers, no interest inside top 20 and possible second round pick.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Peter King is not good at mock drafts, I think he's only got like 5 first round picks correct over last two years. But in this case the teams are the same teams I've seen linked to WR in almost every credible mock with the exception of Kansas City. The WR's tend to change from team to team with only constants are Texans want a speed guy and Texans, Vikings and Bengals are always taking a WR.

That was until I saw this from PFF mock draft 6.0 and I don't know their history of credibility on mocks but Joe Banner tweeted out it was the most accurate one he had seen. A draft like that would seriously alter a  bunch of people's tiers:

1.8 Coleman to Browns

Elliot to Dolphins 

Doctons to Falcons

Shepard to Texans

Thomas to Vikings

Hunter Henry to Denver

They are just mocksand of course could be wildly different but you all catch a trend from Kings and PFF's? Treadwell stock falling. Also heard a few weeks ago talk that Treadwell was one of big fallers, no interest inside top 20 and possible second round pick.

I've followed the WR market really closely this year because I'm a big Bengals fan and I'm pretty sure they want to take a WR at 24. I certainly buy into the story-line that Treadwell's draft stock is more in the late-1st area than top-15 and the stock of the speedsters is up. I'm pretty sure the Bengals would pass on Treadwell for Will Fuller (and definitely would for Corey Coleman). They'd probably go Doctson over Treadwell too. And if Fuller, Coleman and Doctson are gone at 24, I actually think the Bengals would probably look for a DL or CB over Treadwell.  Would never have believed that a month ago. But I think that role of speed receiver who can threaten the defense over-the-top is even more important to NFL coaches than some realize. Forcing the opposing D to keep Safeties back opens up the underneath passing game and helps with numbers in the box for the running game. Even when not targeted a lot, those speed guys have value as decoys.

Treadwell could end up sliding some if he gets past Minnesota at 23. But obviously NFL value doesn't equal fantasy football value. So in some ways, I'm not that concerned that Treadwell's NFL stock is falling for dynasty purposes. He could put up bigger stats than a lot of the guys drafted before him because that's the job he'd be tasked with doing whereas the speed guys are just valuable decoys on a big percentage of the plays. Again going back to the Bengals, Marvin Jones put up 65-816-4 last season and the Bengals badly wanted him back (offering even more than the Lions 5 years, $40M). So the value of that WR2 position is huge in the Bengals' minds even though it's not a position that necessarily is going to put up big numbers. (Look at the contracts Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace received in recent years for further proof of the value NFL teams put on the speed guys.)

 

[spider321]

I'm pretty sure the Bengals would pass on Treadwell for Will Fuller...

That would be idiotic.

 

[Shutout]

"Rent Tichardson"  was in the 2012 class there buck-o.

2013 had no consensus #1.

I wasn't saying he was. Those are two different scenarios where one was everyone falling all over a single high-profile RB and the other where the year was largely bashed as being weak but turned out to have quite a few fantasy gems. 

But more importantly, who say Buck-o anymore?  Isn't that from Happy Days back in the 70's?

Anyway, general feeling on this draft is people are locked on to just a few guys and I think that is generally a danger in knowing what's there, valuing draft picks, etc.

 

[Shutout]

I don't think round 2 and 3 are much weaker than normal. I play PPR only and there are a good number of intriguing RBs who are good in the passing game who could end up being steals for example. Maybe not quite Devonta Freeman level, but there are some mid-round guys who have that big PPR upside. I also think a guy like Wentz with some rushing ability is an interesting round 2 or 3 target. If Hunter Henry falls, he's a nice upside 2nd rounder too. 

There are less sure things after Zeke and the first round is weaker than normal though. I've been saying that since February before the combine. Rookie drafts are still the lifeblood of a dynasty team and I wouldn't sell picks real cheaply, but I also haven't gone out of my way to load up on 2016 picks like I do most years. And outside of #1, I'd be more interested in trading down and accumulating extra picks/players instead of trading up to target anyone else. 

That's my general feeling for this one.

 

[menobrown]

I've followed the WR market really closely this year because I'm a big Bengals fan and I'm pretty sure they want to take a WR at 24. I certainly buy into the story-line that Treadwell's draft stock is more in the late-1st area than top-15 and the stock of the speedsters is up. I'm pretty sure the Bengals would pass on Treadwell for Will Fuller (and definitely would for Corey Coleman). They'd probably go Doctson over Treadwell too. And if Fuller, Coleman and Doctson are gone at 24, I actually think the Bengals would probably look for a DL or CB over Treadwell.  Would never have believed that a month ago. But I think that role of speed receiver who can threaten the defense over-the-top is even more important to NFL coaches than some realize. Forcing the opposing D to keep Safeties back opens up the underneath passing game and helps with numbers in the box for the running game. Even when not targeted a lot, those speed guys have value as decoys.

Treadwell could end up sliding some if he gets past Minnesota at 23. But obviously NFL value doesn't equal fantasy football value. So in some ways, I'm not that concerned that Treadwell's NFL stock is falling for dynasty purposes. He could put up bigger stats than a lot of the guys drafted before him because that's the job he'd be tasked with doing whereas the speed guys are just valuable decoys on a big percentage of the plays. Again going back to the Bengals, Marvin Jones put up 65-816-4 last season and the Bengals badly wanted him back (offering even more than the Lions 5 years, $40M). So the value of that WR2 position is huge in the Bengals' minds even though it's not a position that necessarily is going to put up big numbers. (Look at the contracts Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace received in recent years for further proof of the value NFL teams put on the speed guys.)

I agree that Treadwells draft pedigree won't turn me off from him, nor will Will Fuller positively influence me if he goes high, which some have speculated could be as high as the first WR off the board.

It's been obvious for a long time that the NFL covets speed WR's who can stretch the field and we see it on contracts all the time. We saw when Welker reached UFA status he was on the older side but had a quiet market and I think "only" got $12 million over two seasons. We saw Mike Wallace stink last year and he just got a similar contract from the Ravens. As you mentioned we saw Marvin Jones in huge  demand.

I said this in a thread last week but I'll say it again with regards to landing spots and I was saying this with the mindset the Browns would look at a WR at 32, not 8. But I like the Browns landing spot much better than Vikings, Texans, Bengals. I'd be higher on a guy like Treadwell if he went to the Browns at pick 32 than I would be if Coleman/Doctson/Fuller/Thomas were first round picks on one of those aforementioned teams. And with respect to the Vikings I would think whatever WR they draft in round one has a shot at being the #1 WR which is better than most of those others places but I think it's far from a given they are better than Diggs and combine that with low volume passing attack and it's not attractive to me, and still I'd like it a lot more than a place like the Bengals.