Rookie WRs don't contribute their first season (1 Viewer)

[todisco1]

So last year Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and, at times, Donnie Avery contributed solid games to their teams. In years prior there always seemed to be a rookie or two who broke out ala Marques Colsten, Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, etc. But usually it was just one guy, the rest of the rookie WRs were all but worthless.

This year rookies like Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Johnny Knox & Jeremy Maclin are contributing on a regular basis. Michael Crabtree has stepped right in and seems to be the #1 option on SF immediately. Kenny Britt, Louis Murphy and Mohammed Massaquoi have contributed in spurts. And guys like Mike Thomas and Brian Hartline are getting involved in the offense at times.

In my redraft leagues I have never seen as many rookie WRs rostered. In dynasty leagues the value of these guys has skyrocketed. Has the game changed to the point that rookie WRs are able to adapt easier, or is this crop special in some way? I'm curious because the general belief is that it takes WRs a couple of years to become acclimated to the NFL, and yet this year guys are being thrown right in to the mix and are responding.

Will this trend continue with next year's rookies or is this an anomaly?

 

[renesauz]

I believe it's an anomoly, but perhaps not as big of an anomaly as it first appears. Perhaps the drought of rookie contributors was ALSO a mild anomaly, and the truth is somewhere in between? (IE: IN a "normal" year, there will be 2 or 3 significant contributors and one impact WR)

 

[perry147]

I believe it's an anomoly, but perhaps not as big of an anomaly as it first appears. Perhaps the drought of rookie contributors was ALSO a mild anomaly, and the truth is somewhere in between? (IE: IN a "normal" year, there will be 2 or 3 significant contributors and one impact WR)

I believe in all comes in cycles and the WR performance over a longer time frame will bear this out: UNLESS it can be proven that the NFL has changed in some way to facilitate the younger receivers being used more. Does the new pass friendly NFL make it easier for WR to become productive?

 

[smackdaddies]

So last year Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and, at times, Donnie Avery contributed solid games to their teams. In years prior there always seemed to be a rookie or two who broke out ala Marques Colsten, Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, etc. But usually it was just one guy, the rest of the rookie WRs were all but worthless. This year rookies like Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Johnny Knox & Jeremy Maclin are contributing on a regular basis. Michael Crabtree has stepped right in and seems to be the #1 option on SF immediately. Kenny Britt, Louis Murphy and Mohammed Massaquoi have contributed in spurts. And guys like Mike Thomas and Brian Hartline are getting involved in the offense at times.In my redraft leagues I have never seen as many rookie WRs rostered. In dynasty leagues the value of these guys has skyrocketed. Has the game changed to the point that rookie WRs are able to adapt easier, or is this crop special in some way? I'm curious because the general belief is that it takes WRs a couple of years to become acclimated to the NFL, and yet this year guys are being thrown right in to the mix and are responding. Will this trend continue with next year's rookies or is this an anomaly?

Depends upon your level of "contribute" that you mean.Of this years players, I would only classify Harvin and Knox as truly contributing (being a top 30 wr). How many WR got drafted this year? Do rookie WR EVER contribute? SureCan you count on a specific rookie WR contributing? Only if you like sucker bets.

 

[Maui Monster]

I don't think this has ever not been true. Randy Moss is a prime example of this. It is one of the hardest positions to learn, but when you see the talent they have coming out of college now and the leaning towards the passing game. Superior talent gets on the field bottom line.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

In my league(12 team start 3 WR non-ppr) six rookie WRs should be starting for some team. That doesn't even include Crabtree, who I would say the same for as well.

14. Nicks

28. Collie

30. Wallace

34. Harvin

35. Knox

37. Maclin

Pretty impressive year for rookie WRs already.

 

[Chaka]

Rookies get a ton more coaching up before the season ever starts then in years past. Used to be that rookies pretty much only had training camp to learn the play book and acclimate to the speed and nuance of the NFL game. However we are now in the era of the year round training cycle. In years past there were not nearly as many Organized Team Activities (OTAs) and mini-camps during the off season. Now players barely get a couple weeks between the end of the season and commencement of practices for the next season.

 

[basher]

In my league(12 team start 3 WR non-ppr) six rookie WRs should be starting for some team. That doesn't even include Crabtree, who I would say the same for as well. 14. Nicks28. Collie30. Wallace34. Harvin35. Knox37. MaclinPretty impressive year for rookie WRs already.

of this list you basically have a bunch of guys who are going to be inconsistent over the season as a whole and will be maddening as regular starters. That is the problem with rookie WRs ... the majority make for a roller coaster ride

 

[switz]

I believe it's an anomoly, but perhaps not as big of an anomaly as it first appears. Perhaps the drought of rookie contributors was ALSO a mild anomaly, and the truth is somewhere in between? (IE: IN a "normal" year, there will be 2 or 3 significant contributors and one impact WR)

I believe in all comes in cycles and the WR performance over a longer time frame will bear this out: UNLESS it can be proven that the NFL has changed in some way to facilitate the younger receivers being used more. Does the new pass friendly NFL make it easier for WR to become productive?

More use of the spread offense certainly puts younger WRs in a better position to succeed. I would guess the percentage of 3 and 4 WR sets has greatly increased over the past 4-5 years.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

In my league(12 team start 3 WR non-ppr) six rookie WRs should be starting for some team. That doesn't even include Crabtree, who I would say the same for as well. 14. Nicks28. Collie30. Wallace34. Harvin35. Knox37. MaclinPretty impressive year for rookie WRs already.

of this list you basically have a bunch of guys who are going to be inconsistent over the season as a whole and will be maddening as regular starters. That is the problem with rookie WRs ... the majority make for a roller coaster ride

True, but in I guess you could have TJ and S.Moss or a handfull of other vets rostered and ride the same roller coaster.

 

[DAMAC3]

Everyone has been talking about how the NFL might have changed. Is it possible that college passing offenses are copying schemes from the NFL? I think this goes hand-in-hand with what we've seen from some rookie QBs recently: Flacco & Ryan last year, Sanchez to an extent this year. Offensive Coordinators at the college level are running more NFL-like passing offenses. This is preparing rookies much better for the NFL.

Now in saying that, I agree with the regression to the mean theory. I think receivers are becoming better prepared, but at the same time I believe this year especially is an anomoly. Every year like this is contrasted by a year or two of little to no rookie breakout at the position. That is just theory, of course, as I have not been playing fantasy football for enough years to have seen this played out.

 

[DAMAC3]

More use of the spread offense certainly puts younger WRs in a better position to succeed. I would guess the percentage of 3 and 4 WR sets has greatly increased over the past 4-5 years.

Didn't see this until I posted, but exactly what I was getting at.

 

[perry147]

I believe it's an anomoly, but perhaps not as big of an anomaly as it first appears. Perhaps the drought of rookie contributors was ALSO a mild anomaly, and the truth is somewhere in between? (IE: IN a "normal" year, there will be 2 or 3 significant contributors and one impact WR)

I believe in all comes in cycles and the WR performance over a longer time frame will bear this out: UNLESS it can be proven that the NFL has changed in some way to facilitate the younger receivers being used more. Does the new pass friendly NFL make it easier for WR to become productive?

More use of the spread offense certainly puts younger WRs in a better position to succeed. I would guess the percentage of 3 and 4 WR sets has greatly increased over the past 4-5 years.

Very true.Money also plays a role, a team often needs its draft picks to play sooner in order to justify their escalating salaries.

 

[CalBear]

There have been a total of 78 rookie seasons since 1960 with 100+ fantasy points. In the past 10 years, there have been 17. In terms of the overall percentages, you would expect any 10-year period to have 16, so, it doesn't look like there's a big increase here--especially considering that overall WR production is up.

If you want to look at the very top level, there have been 14 rookies with 150+ fantasy points, three of which are in the past 10 years (Boldin, Clayton, and Colston). Again, this is about what you would expect in a 10-year period (expected value=2.8).

This year we have four players with more than 50 fantasy points midway through the season (Nicks, Harvin, Collie, and Wallace), but it's a reasonable bet that at least three of them will not finish with over 100 points. None of them looks like a threat to break 150 points.

 

[basher]

In my league(12 team start 3 WR non-ppr) six rookie WRs should be starting for some team. That doesn't even include Crabtree, who I would say the same for as well. 14. Nicks28. Collie30. Wallace34. Harvin35. Knox37. MaclinPretty impressive year for rookie WRs already.

of this list you basically have a bunch of guys who are going to be inconsistent over the season as a whole and will be maddening as regular starters. That is the problem with rookie WRs ... the majority make for a roller coaster ride

True, but in I guess you could have TJ and S.Moss or a handfull of other vets rostered and ride the same roller coaster.

I don't disagree with you one bit. My only point is that the vast majority of the rookie wr's (aside from a very rare few) at best have a handful of solid games but will have a significant amount where they will either be mediocre or worse ... a no show

 

[Sabertooth]

I believe it's an anomoly, but perhaps not as big of an anomaly as it first appears. Perhaps the drought of rookie contributors was ALSO a mild anomaly, and the truth is somewhere in between? (IE: IN a "normal" year, there will be 2 or 3 significant contributors and one impact WR)

I believe in all comes in cycles and the WR performance over a longer time frame will bear this out: UNLESS it can be proven that the NFL has changed in some way to facilitate the younger receivers being used more. Does the new pass friendly NFL make it easier for WR to become productive?

I think the NFL is more watered down talent wise now than at any point in its history. This could also play into it somehow.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

In my league(12 team start 3 WR non-ppr) six rookie WRs should be starting for some team. That doesn't even include Crabtree, who I would say the same for as well. 14. Nicks28. Collie30. Wallace34. Harvin35. Knox37. MaclinPretty impressive year for rookie WRs already.

of this list you basically have a bunch of guys who are going to be inconsistent over the season as a whole and will be maddening as regular starters. That is the problem with rookie WRs ... the majority make for a roller coaster ride

True, but in I guess you could have TJ and S.Moss or a handfull of other vets rostered and ride the same roller coaster.

I don't disagree with you one bit. My only point is that the vast majority of the rookie wr's (aside from a very rare few) at best have a handful of solid games but will have a significant amount where they will either be mediocre or worse ... a no show

Can't you say that about a lot of the guys that we're plugging in as our #3 wideout week in and week out?

 

[basher]

In my league(12 team start 3 WR non-ppr) six rookie WRs should be starting for some team. That doesn't even include Crabtree, who I would say the same for as well. 14. Nicks28. Collie30. Wallace34. Harvin35. Knox37. MaclinPretty impressive year for rookie WRs already.

of this list you basically have a bunch of guys who are going to be inconsistent over the season as a whole and will be maddening as regular starters. That is the problem with rookie WRs ... the majority make for a roller coaster ride

True, but in I guess you could have TJ and S.Moss or a handfull of other vets rostered and ride the same roller coaster.

I don't disagree with you one bit. My only point is that the vast majority of the rookie wr's (aside from a very rare few) at best have a handful of solid games but will have a significant amount where they will either be mediocre or worse ... a no show

Can't you say that about a lot of the guys that we're plugging in as our #3 wideout week in and week out?

yes my point is Kitrick Taylor said those players should be starters on teams ... and really they are only matchup plays at best.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

True, but in I guess you could have TJ and S.Moss or a handfull of other vets rostered and ride the same roller coaster.

I don't disagree with you one bit. My only point is that the vast majority of the rookie wr's (aside from a very rare few) at best have a handful of solid games but will have a significant amount where they will either be mediocre or worse ... a no show

Can't you say that about a lot of the guys that we're plugging in as our #3 wideout week in and week out?

yes my point is Kitrick Taylor said those players should be starters on teams ... and really they are only matchup plays at best.

Harvin has been a bit of a roller coaster, but Wallace and Collie have been pretty solid for the last month plus. Nicks is putting up great numbers for the last month.

IMO the reality is that all WR #3 types are more or less roller coaster rides. But the other reality is that these rookies are putting up WR2/3 numbers. Therefore they should be on starting rosters of leagues that start 36 WRs.

Unless you'd rather be starting veterans like Roy Williams, TO, Bernard Berrian, Kevin Walter, Antonio Bryant or Torry Holt, and getting more inconsistency and fewer points to date.

 

[Rovers]

I should be more up on college football than I am... did the rookies this year all come from pro style offenses?

I still think it takes two years for future studs to develop, more often it's their third year. Players like S Rice... which is why dyanasty leagues are so challenging. It looks light Hester has finally learned the position too. P Manning just makes every WR better, rookie or not, as the exception. I think it's pretty much the same for many TE's. Davis finally emerged, and maybe it's Keller next year.

 

[TheWheel]

It is more about coaches and FO relying on their rookies at every position. It used to be that you never started rookie QBs but if you are drafting a QB early, he is probably the most talented QB on the team. It is a question of need. Drafting a player usually means positional weakness which means a rookie has a great chance to play at some point. If your team has a weakness during gameday and you have rookie talent on the bench, there should be an inclination to try them out. Years ago a rookie may never see the field; today, the rookie is needed.