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Roy Williams (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
- Start date
doowain
Footballguy
Roy has all the talent in the world but he's missing something. I'm not sure what that "something" is, but it's a pretty big deal. He's just not that good.
Based on opportunity alone I can see him putting up....
70/1050/5
They will add someone in the draft or via free agency to fill some of the void. I think the two that benefit the most from this though are Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton.
Based on opportunity alone I can see him putting up....
70/1050/5
They will add someone in the draft or via free agency to fill some of the void. I think the two that benefit the most from this though are Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton.
I very much disagree.I think its more likely that the pie just got a lot smaller. As of now, I'm not sure I consider Romo a top-10 QB, and Witten will be the #1 target.80-1,100-7 is possible, but that isn't his floor, that'd be a very good season for him.I don't think Witten benefits either, Dallas will likely become more run heavy and likely just become an above average offense rather than a great one.
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Mcnabbfan
Footballguy
I totally agree. RW is so overated.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
This sounds like a more accurate over/under for RW.
FFFanatic71
Footballguy
The loss of a great receiving threat and Romo's propensity to turn the ball over, to me, combine to point to more of a running team with MBIII, Felix and Choice. Witten will draw the doubles now leaving Roy with what I'd say would be a 70 - 825 - 6 type of season. Just my $0.02.
I can't wait to listen to sports talk radio tomorrow though!! Delicious.
I can't wait to listen to sports talk radio tomorrow though!! Delicious.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
85-1150-9
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
my floor was probably a bit high...
maybe in receptions it would be something closer to 65 receptions? that would just be four a game, one a quarter... i have a hard time believing jerry jones coughed up a 1st & a 3rd, broke the bank on an extension & than releases TO, making him the clear WR1, just to throw it to him 2-3 times a game?
i may have overshot the first set of numbers... what i called the floor initially i should have labelled... between his floor/ceiling... as was said above, that would be a good season...
i sense that a lot of people are down on roy, but my question to them would be... does he get ANY benefit of the doubt for being in a bad situationm in DET (QB & OL not as good as what he enjoys now)... any benefit of the doubt last year for starting in-season?
the biggest headscratcher i saw in some of the far more pessimistic projections above, that i would most take objection with, is to think he could get 80 receptions & 800 yards... his first three seasons, he averaged between 15-16 YPC... next two 13+ (& keeping in mind, those five years he was in a far worse situation than he is now, in terms of QB, OL & surrounding offensive talent... witten could be good for him like he was for TO, & williams never got the benefit of a TE the caliber/quality of witten with the lions)... last year was clearly an outlier at about 10 YPC, and that was with TO & reporting inseason... now he gets a whole training camp to establish a rapport with romo, & TO is gone... i may be overly optimistic, but i think others aren't sufficiently factoring in or accounting for the importance of having the opportunity to establish timing & familiarity of route running habits with the QB (& that he is now the WR1... not the same as the top receiving target, i agree that is likely witten... but imo, it could be closer than roy currently seems to be getting credit for)?
if he gets somewhere between 13-16 YPC, which is his historical norm every season except for last seasons outlier low of 10+ YPC (which seems to have been caused by some identifiable, mitigating factors no longer present), than 80 receptions doesn't add up to 800 yards... TDs are unpredictable, & he has never been a TD machine... maybe his floor is closer to 3-4... possibly 7 a bit high (& DD for ceiling), but i feel comfortable projecting him with a revised range of 6-8...
maybe in receptions it would be something closer to 65 receptions? that would just be four a game, one a quarter... i have a hard time believing jerry jones coughed up a 1st & a 3rd, broke the bank on an extension & than releases TO, making him the clear WR1, just to throw it to him 2-3 times a game?
i may have overshot the first set of numbers... what i called the floor initially i should have labelled... between his floor/ceiling... as was said above, that would be a good season...
i sense that a lot of people are down on roy, but my question to them would be... does he get ANY benefit of the doubt for being in a bad situationm in DET (QB & OL not as good as what he enjoys now)... any benefit of the doubt last year for starting in-season?
the biggest headscratcher i saw in some of the far more pessimistic projections above, that i would most take objection with, is to think he could get 80 receptions & 800 yards... his first three seasons, he averaged between 15-16 YPC... next two 13+ (& keeping in mind, those five years he was in a far worse situation than he is now, in terms of QB, OL & surrounding offensive talent... witten could be good for him like he was for TO, & williams never got the benefit of a TE the caliber/quality of witten with the lions)... last year was clearly an outlier at about 10 YPC, and that was with TO & reporting inseason... now he gets a whole training camp to establish a rapport with romo, & TO is gone... i may be overly optimistic, but i think others aren't sufficiently factoring in or accounting for the importance of having the opportunity to establish timing & familiarity of route running habits with the QB (& that he is now the WR1... not the same as the top receiving target, i agree that is likely witten... but imo, it could be closer than roy currently seems to be getting credit for)?
if he gets somewhere between 13-16 YPC, which is his historical norm every season except for last seasons outlier low of 10+ YPC (which seems to have been caused by some identifiable, mitigating factors no longer present), than 80 receptions doesn't add up to 800 yards... TDs are unpredictable, & he has never been a TD machine... maybe his floor is closer to 3-4... possibly 7 a bit high (& DD for ceiling), but i feel comfortable projecting him with a revised range of 6-8...
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stewartcjae
Footballguy
In regards to Romo propensity to turning over the ball.Last 3 yearsRomo (81 td's) 46int 12 fum lost = 58E. Manning (68 td's) 48int 11 fum lost = 59P. Manning (89 td's) 35int 2 fum lost= 37Brady (100TD's) 34int 11 fum lost = 45 (last 3yrs played) B. Roth (67 td's) 49int 12 fum lost = 61Cutler (54 td's) 37int 8 fum lost = 45 (only 5 games 1st season)Rivers (77td's) 35int 12 fum lost= 47Brees (88td's) 46int 8 fum lost= 54Yes, Romo turns the ball over too much, but so do many of the top QB's. Still a lock for 3500yd 25td IMO
cstu
Footballguy
Certainly possible, but seems high given that Owens only had 69/1052/10 last year.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
This is the way I see it too. RW's average over the last three years is 60/859/5 (this includes his one good season!). That should put him in the middle of the pack of #3 Wrs, and totally frustrate the guys that draft him.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
last year really brought his average down*, though (came in late & had TO to contend with... no longer)...the year before, not only much worse OL & QB relative to DAL (both previous years, actually), he was opposite calvin johnson, one of the top WR prospects in league history... now he is across from crayton or austin...obviously the career season brought the average up, i just think last year was more of an outlier on the DOWNside...
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stewartcjae
Footballguy
He also started 16, 11, 12 games during that span. If you get his total yards per game (66) and average out for 16game season its around 1054yds. Still not great, but unless you want to predict he will get hurt (and it might be a safe bet) then the 859 isnt a great gauge of what you expect him to do in Dallas. I guess I just do not understand people predicting equal or less to what he produced in Detroit playing on 12 games??
•TheRealMcCoy
Footballguy
I AGREE 100%!! Witten actually wil take a hit as he may get more coverage than a typical TE should?? With that said:Roy: 85rec / 1150 / 11TDsWitten: 77rec / 900 / 9TDsCrayton(or 3rd WR): 52rec / 656 / 3TDsI think everyone is a bit harsh on Roys past given the team he was on?? The situations(bringing in new coaches, O Cord, etc)?? And some of the injuries? If on a winning team(Dallas should be a lock for about 10 wins, which is way beter than Det), maybe Roy shows his talent finally?? Im not saying over pay for him in trade or drafts??? But he should fit great as a WR2 and will be a top WR3!!! Hes no Fitz or Marshall etc!!! But a great WR2 and best WR3 on your team each week!!Last chance Roy!! Show me something?
only thing, when he was in Detroit, they weren't a run dominant team, plus they were mostly playing from behind. With 3 very solid RBs, I can't see Dallas chucking the ball like Detroit did when Roy was there. Plus, I still think Witten will be the #1 target in the passing game.
munchkin
Footballguy
Releasing TO firmly lays the yoke on Roy's shoulders. Not that Witten won't still be a favorite target for Romo, but Roy is the new shinny toy on Jerry's shelf. The Cowboy's need to get better on the O-Line and in the Secondary before they draft a wide receiver. They have great running backs and need to focus on that end of the game to help cut down on turnovers and control the game. They have enough (potential) home-run hitters on their current roster. Who knows what Roy will/can/wants to do. He has the talent to be real good, but is he dedicated enough.
gianmarco
Footballguy
"Fool me once, shame on- shame you. Fool me- you can't get fooled again."
Good to see that a good # of people are finally getting it re: Roy. Not surprising to see there are still some out there that don't. Not only are they optimistic about it, but amazingly optimistic about it putting out #'s like 80-90/1100-1300/9-10. Now, I'm not saying it can't happen, but this guy's floor and ceiling are so far removed from each other that they look like you're talking about 2 different players. And, in fact, you are.
The guy has talent. There's no question about that. But for whatever reasons, mostly what seems like lack of motivation and concentration, he can't put it together and sustain it over the course of a year. He just can't. I'm the last person to believe in the "injury prone" label, but his inability to play a full 16 games at a high level has proven itself year after year after year.
Yet, here again, there's talk of putting him in the top 15-20 when he hasn't finished higher than 30th except for one magical year. At this point, predicting a substantially higher finish than what he's done for 80% of his career just seems foolish to me. And with enough people thinking this way, his price is going to be unjustifiably high.
Let someone else pay the price. If you miss out, big deal. Whoever buys him will simply be getting what they paid for. At this point, it would be almost impossible for him to outproduce it. And the substantial risk of not getting a return on your investment is huge. This is a PERFECT opportunity to sell him high.
I don't think I've ever seen a person like him who continues to command such value despite such terrible final outcomes. The funny thing is, if things don't work out here in Dallas and he were to end up in another pass happy offense like Denver or NE, I GUARANTEE we'll be hearing all this talk. Again.
Good to see that a good # of people are finally getting it re: Roy. Not surprising to see there are still some out there that don't. Not only are they optimistic about it, but amazingly optimistic about it putting out #'s like 80-90/1100-1300/9-10. Now, I'm not saying it can't happen, but this guy's floor and ceiling are so far removed from each other that they look like you're talking about 2 different players. And, in fact, you are.
The guy has talent. There's no question about that. But for whatever reasons, mostly what seems like lack of motivation and concentration, he can't put it together and sustain it over the course of a year. He just can't. I'm the last person to believe in the "injury prone" label, but his inability to play a full 16 games at a high level has proven itself year after year after year.
Yet, here again, there's talk of putting him in the top 15-20 when he hasn't finished higher than 30th except for one magical year. At this point, predicting a substantially higher finish than what he's done for 80% of his career just seems foolish to me. And with enough people thinking this way, his price is going to be unjustifiably high.
Let someone else pay the price. If you miss out, big deal. Whoever buys him will simply be getting what they paid for. At this point, it would be almost impossible for him to outproduce it. And the substantial risk of not getting a return on your investment is huge. This is a PERFECT opportunity to sell him high.
I don't think I've ever seen a person like him who continues to command such value despite such terrible final outcomes. The funny thing is, if things don't work out here in Dallas and he were to end up in another pass happy offense like Denver or NE, I GUARANTEE we'll be hearing all this talk. Again.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
As a long time Roy owner who finally pulled the plug last year, I agree with this. His first round pedigree and one good season really make people overlook his production. His situation in Detroit was actually pretty conducive to putting up great numbers (pass-happy Martz offense, always playing from behind), and he really didn't --even in his one big year he wasn't the leading receiver on the Lions -- Mike friggin' Furrey caught significantly more balls than did Roy. Also, considering the weapons that they have had around them, I am not convinced that Romo is really all that much better a QB than Kitna, honestly. Better, sure, but enough of a difference to provide a major bump for Roy? Not sold. When you add in his inability to play a full season, it all spells O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D to me. Roy is a borderline WR2/3 with phantom upside who will likely be drafted as a lower tier WR1 this year -- I'll pass.
Traders2001
Footballguy
That s about right .
Darn
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I took down my post because I don't think I could sum it up better, very nice GMDarn
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Moe Green
Footballguy
Spot on. Let some other owner draft him high. If he miraculously falls to the 5th round or later, then think about snatching him up.
Gopher State
Footballguy
70/925/4 He's not going to get the looks T.O. got. Dallas will be a much more balanced offense going forward.
Todem
Footballguy
Let us not forget that Romo missed 3 games? Brad Johnson was complete garbage last year.Roy Williams should have about 75, 1200 8 TD'sWR2 numbers.
cstu
Footballguy
I'm close, but I think he gets a couple more TD's:70/900/6.
cstu
Footballguy
So you expect him to match his career high in YPC of 16.0 when he's averaged 12.6 YPC the past two years?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
A few Roy E fun facts:
The last time RW had a good fantasy week? (ie 100+ yards and a TD) Week 3 of 2007. He's played in 24 games since then.
How about explosive plays? Guys with talent make explosive plays right? (defined as plays over 25 yards). Since that week 3 game in 2007, he's had exactly 4 plays over 25 yards. 43, 28, 28, 38. Twenty four games. Four big plays.
How about just being a respectable fantasy start? Let's define it as 10 fantasy points or greater with a TD = 6 and 1 pt per 10 yards no ppr. How many in the last 24 weeks? Three. His owners have gotten three acceptable weeks out of the last 24.
How about 100 yard games? 1 since that date.
My opinion is that this is the last chance owners will get to sell high. His owners greatest hope was that he would have to play for a contract at some point. The Cowboys did away with that nonsense by guaranteeing him 26 million dollars on his 6 year 54 million dollar deal. Exactly what is going to motivate him now?
Who to sell high for? I'd shoot for a guy like VJax or Santana Moss. Someone without such a big name but a guy that actually produces. You might be able to pull off that deal, and in a couple of years still have a guy that's producing in the NFL.
The last time RW had a good fantasy week? (ie 100+ yards and a TD) Week 3 of 2007. He's played in 24 games since then.
How about explosive plays? Guys with talent make explosive plays right? (defined as plays over 25 yards). Since that week 3 game in 2007, he's had exactly 4 plays over 25 yards. 43, 28, 28, 38. Twenty four games. Four big plays.
How about just being a respectable fantasy start? Let's define it as 10 fantasy points or greater with a TD = 6 and 1 pt per 10 yards no ppr. How many in the last 24 weeks? Three. His owners have gotten three acceptable weeks out of the last 24.
How about 100 yard games? 1 since that date.
My opinion is that this is the last chance owners will get to sell high. His owners greatest hope was that he would have to play for a contract at some point. The Cowboys did away with that nonsense by guaranteeing him 26 million dollars on his 6 year 54 million dollar deal. Exactly what is going to motivate him now?
Who to sell high for? I'd shoot for a guy like VJax or Santana Moss. Someone without such a big name but a guy that actually produces. You might be able to pull off that deal, and in a couple of years still have a guy that's producing in the NFL.
Great posting ... Roy gives inconsistent effort and is not reliable. He makes some incredible plays and disappears at other times.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
if the cowboys change up their game plan & run more, that could be good for williams...
if defenses focus on stopping the run, he will rarely (ever) get doubled...
if defenses are successful in shutting down the run some games, romo will have to throw to witten & williams...
if defenses focus on stopping the run, he will rarely (ever) get doubled...
if defenses are successful in shutting down the run some games, romo will have to throw to witten & williams...
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
60/780/4-5 in 12 games.
LBH
Footballguy
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I was just coming here to post this. I think both Williams and Austin end up betwen 800-900 yards with 5-6 TD's each. Actually, Wittens numbers will probably be in the same range.Throw in another 1000 yards and 9 TD's between the rest of the crew, and Romo ends up with somewhere around 3600 yards, and 25 TD's.
Lucky Lefty
Footballguy
I've been down that road before... NEVER AGAINI just pulled this one off.I gotD. Williams B. JacobsP. Burress 4 R. WilliamsT. Ginn K. WinslowI'm working on getting Ste... Hopefully by mid seasonLet's say 900-6 yards each for Roy, Witten, and Austin on average for 2700-18 for Romo ... and let's not forget another 500-5 to other WR's/TE's (Crayton, Hurd, Bennett, etc), figure 100-2 rushing, and then ATLEAST another 700-6 passing to his RB's which people are forgetting that Felix will pick up a lot of TO's stats. That should keep Romo in the total yardage range of 4000-31 and that seems to me to be lower than what's possible if the move to a play-action passing situation works as intended. His OL is better suited for run blocking and the whole shotgun offense was not playing to the team's strengths.
Abraham
Footballguy
Holy cow. Some of you have taken a big swig of the crazy punch.
For starters, I'm sure everyone has taken in to account...
...that RW has played 16 games once in 4 seasons?
...that discounting his single 16 game season, he's averaged 3 missed games a year?
...that he's posted 80 catches only once, averaging an embarrassing 49 catches in his other 4 seasons?
...that he's eclipsed 838 yards exactly once in his career?
Now consider that he came from a team that threw A LOT (Detroit was 2nd in the league in pass attempts in RW's lone superstar season) due to Mike Martz and the lack of a running game and he's now on a team that while pass heavy still has some balance.
All that leaves me asking exactly what part of Roy Williams, his situation, etc. makes people think that he's going to sniff 80+ catches, 1,000 yards, and double-digit TDs? Is it possible - absolutely. But the smart money is on a more pedestrian yet still respectable line around 60, 820, and 8.
For starters, I'm sure everyone has taken in to account...
...that RW has played 16 games once in 4 seasons?
...that discounting his single 16 game season, he's averaged 3 missed games a year?
...that he's posted 80 catches only once, averaging an embarrassing 49 catches in his other 4 seasons?
...that he's eclipsed 838 yards exactly once in his career?
Now consider that he came from a team that threw A LOT (Detroit was 2nd in the league in pass attempts in RW's lone superstar season) due to Mike Martz and the lack of a running game and he's now on a team that while pass heavy still has some balance.
All that leaves me asking exactly what part of Roy Williams, his situation, etc. makes people think that he's going to sniff 80+ catches, 1,000 yards, and double-digit TDs? Is it possible - absolutely. But the smart money is on a more pedestrian yet still respectable line around 60, 820, and 8.
Weiner Dog
Footballguy
I can see the arguments for tagging Roy with the "injury prone" label, but I'm having hard time buying the whole "he cannot seem to put it together" moniker. Roy's career average of 58.3 yards/game (inclusive of his 10 games with DAL last year where he was essentially a decoy) compares very favorably with other WR's ranked higher than him:
39.9 - V Jackson
43.5 - Cothery
54.1 - Welker
54.7 - A Bryant
56.1 - Houshmandzadeh
58.3 - R Williams
58.8 - S Holmes
59.1 - L Coles
59.3 - L Evans
61.3 - B Edwards
63.0 - Bowe
Do what you wish these numbers. Sure, guys like Vincent Jackson were late bloomers, while guys like Bowe hit the ground running. However, if you exclude Roy's mid-season trade to the Cowboys (...and a brand new playbook), his career yards/game is 64.7...
...which is higher than everybody on the list above.
I'm just saying ~
39.9 - V Jackson
43.5 - Cothery
54.1 - Welker
54.7 - A Bryant
56.1 - Houshmandzadeh
58.3 - R Williams
58.8 - S Holmes
59.1 - L Coles
59.3 - L Evans
61.3 - B Edwards
63.0 - Bowe
Do what you wish these numbers. Sure, guys like Vincent Jackson were late bloomers, while guys like Bowe hit the ground running. However, if you exclude Roy's mid-season trade to the Cowboys (...and a brand new playbook), his career yards/game is 64.7...
...which is higher than everybody on the list above.
I'm just saying ~
gianmarco
Footballguy
I don't get points for average yds/game. I don't think most do. That's the problem with Roy. He does enough to tease but never enough to fulfill the expectations. Most of those other guys string it together for a prolonged period of time. Why aren't people making excuses for Housh? Why no excuses for Bowe? Why no excuses for VJax? Why no excuses for Welker? Reason is there's no reason to because those guys actually have nice finishes. It's easy to debate their merits vs. each other bc you're discussing year end totals and year end finishes. With Roy, it's always "well, if only he didn't have xxxxx" or "well, if you take what he did over this span and prorate it" or "this situation held him down but now he's going to do xxxx". I'd rather save those excuses and let someone else justify them while I grab these other guys at the same price with MUCH less risk.I can see the arguments for tagging Roy with the "injury prone" label, but I'm having hard time buying the whole "he cannot seem to put it together" moniker. Roy's career average of 58.3 yards/game (inclusive of his 10 games with DAL last year where he was essentially a decoy) compares very favorably with other WR's ranked higher than him:
39.9 - V Jackson
43.5 - Cothery
54.1 - Welker
54.7 - A Bryant
56.1 - Houshmandzadeh
58.3 - R Williams
58.8 - S Holmes
59.1 - L Coles
59.3 - L Evans
61.3 - B Edwards
63.0 - Bowe
Do what you wish these numbers. Sure, guys like Vincent Jackson were late bloomers, while guys like Bowe hit the ground running. However, if you exclude Roy's mid-season trade to the Cowboys (...and a brand new playbook), his career yards/game is 64.7...
...which is higher than everybody on the list above.
I'm just saying ~
The funny thing about him is this. It's not as if the guy is going to jump into the top 5 of WRs. People arguing for him are HOPING for WR 15-20 #'s. I could MAYBE buy the hope and love if this guy had amazing upside. But he doesn't. This is why I've always separated him from AJ. I've made many of the same excuses for AJ in the past (simple search will show this). However, the reason I did is because he had true elite status upside. He finally demonstrated that last year and the year before and proved his believers right. Roy will NEVER sniff those #'s. If I'm going to bother making excuses for someone and hope they finally put it together, I want it to be worth it in the end. Roy will NEVER be worth it even if he puts it together because his best will not eclipse those top 5 guys.
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