Rudi at 1.06 (1 Viewer)

[Verbal Kint]

I'm drafting from the 6 hole, and am torn between Rudi and S-Jax, but I'm leaning more toward Rudi because he has a proven track record moreso that Jackson. Rudi's ADP is ~ 1.11, and FBG projections have him as RB8 behind Jackson & Jordan.

Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06? IMO he can surpass his production from last year given that he was hobbled by nagging injuries last year. Granted, their schedule looks to be tougher than last year.

 

[gocats]

I'm drafting from the 6 hole, and am torn between Rudi and S-Jax, but I'm leaning more toward Rudi because he has a proven track record moreso that Jackson. Rudi's ADP is ~ 1.11, and FBG projections have him as RB8 behind Jackson & Jordan. Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06? IMO he can surpass his production from last year given that he was hobbled by nagging injuries last year. Granted, their schedule looks to be tougher than last year.

He's the safest choice at that point IMO, both SJax and L. Jordan offer much more risk.

 

[duaneok66]

I'm drafting from the 6 hole, and am torn between Rudi and S-Jax, but I'm leaning more toward Rudi because he has a proven track record moreso that Jackson. Rudi's ADP is ~ 1.11, and FBG projections have him as RB8 behind Jackson & Jordan. Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06? IMO he can surpass his production from last year given that he was hobbled by nagging injuries last year. Granted, their schedule looks to be tougher than last year.

You aren't crazy; but if Carson isn't good to go, Rudi will start seeing 8 in the box . . .

 

[Blackjacks]

I'm drafting from the 6 hole, and am torn between Rudi and S-Jax, but I'm leaning more toward Rudi because he has a proven track record moreso that Jackson. Rudi's ADP is ~ 1.11, and FBG projections have him as RB8 behind Jackson & Jordan. Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06? IMO he can surpass his production from last year given that he was hobbled by nagging injuries last year. Granted, their schedule looks to be tougher than last year.

You aren't crazy; but if Carson isn't good to go, Rudi will start seeing 8 in the box . . .

His value would be hurt but in my opinion no one is ever going to put 8 in the box no matter who is playing qb for Cincy. They have to many weapons at the wr position. Even is Wright is their Qb you know Chad will still be double teamed so you won't see 8 in the box regardless. If I were picking 6 I would feel comfortable going Rudi.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

I think it is a good pick, but maybe you could drop a couple spots and pick up something else along with Rudi?

 

[duaneok66]

I'm drafting from the 6 hole, and am torn between Rudi and S-Jax, but I'm leaning more toward Rudi because he has a proven track record moreso that Jackson. Rudi's ADP is ~ 1.11, and FBG projections have him as RB8 behind Jackson & Jordan. Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06? IMO he can surpass his production from last year given that he was hobbled by nagging injuries last year. Granted, their schedule looks to be tougher than last year.

You aren't crazy; but if Carson isn't good to go, Rudi will start seeing 8 in the box . . .

His value would be hurt but in my opinion no one is ever going to put 8 in the box no matter who is playing qb for Cincy. They have to many weapons at the wr position. Even is Wright is their Qb you know Chad will still be double teamed so you won't see 8 in the box regardless. If I were picking 6 I would feel comfortable going Rudi.

I'd take my chances with Anthony Wright behind center . . .

 

[eoMMan]

I'm not as big on him this year.

Palmer is questionable for week 1 and their schedule is pretty friggin' rough this year.

 

[MLBrandow]

yes you are crazy.

You take a RB with receiving numbers to add, like SJax, Jordan or Cadillac.

Bad idea to draft a RB, however effective, who is handicapped by the fact that he doesn't catch the ball.

 

[gump]

I am in the same boat at #6, and have Rudi, SJax, and Jordan in a virtual dead heat in my overall rankings at #6, #7, and #8...with Rudi a few points ahead.

My problem with selecting Rudi though is this:

I have projected a very good year for him...1500 yards and 13 TDs.

Meanwhile, I have gone the conservative route (in my mind) with Jackson and Jordon....both with 1600 and 11 TDs.

Rudi should be the man going by my rankings, but potential UPSIDE has me leaning away.

 

[rascal]

yes you are crazy.You take a RB with receiving numbers to add, like SJax, Jordan or Cadillac.Bad idea to draft a RB, however effective, who is handicapped by the fact that he doesn't catch the ball.

I could understand taking SJax ahead of him, maybe Jordan, but no way Cadillac.Rudi is a consistent 1400 12 TD's. You can pretty much bank on him getting that. With a regime change, new QB, and a leaky o-line can you honestly say the same for Lamont (minus QB and you have the same risks with SJax)? Sure his cealing his higher then Rudi's, but IMO with my first round pick I want guaranteed production. And can you be sure that Cadillac won't loose touches to Pittman who is a very good receiving back, and that he will stay healthy? Again, his cealing his higher then Rudi's, but he has more risk.IMO my first round pick I want as high of production as possible as long as it's safe. And IMO outside of the top 5, Rudi is the next option.

 

[Verbal Kint]

yes you are crazy.You take a RB with receiving numbers to add, like SJax, Jordan or Cadillac.Bad idea to draft a RB, however effective, who is handicapped by the fact that he doesn't catch the ball.

I could understand taking SJax ahead of him, maybe Jordan, but no way Cadillac.Rudi is a consistent 1400 12 TD's. You can pretty much bank on him getting that. With a regime change, new QB, and a leaky o-line can you honestly say the same for Lamont (minus QB and you have the same risks with SJax)? Sure his cealing his higher then Rudi's, but IMO with my first round pick I want guaranteed production. And can you be sure that Cadillac won't loose touches to Pittman who is a very good receiving back, and that he will stay healthy? Again, his cealing his higher then Rudi's, but he has more risk.IMO my first round pick I want as high of production as possible as long as it's safe. And IMO outside of the top 5, Rudi is the next option.

Exactly my thought. S-Jax and Lamont have never had more that 1,000 rushing or double digit TDs. Even if they get 400 yards receiving, that only matches Rudi's rushing totals from each of the last 2 years. Last year Jordan had 225 FFpoints and Jackson had 197 compared to Rudi's 227 and 226 in the last 2 years (FBG scoring). For me Rudi's baseline is more secure, with a couple hundred yards of upside. I'll take that.

 

[Otis]

Cadillac down?

 

[Spartans Rule]

Cadillac down?

Near the goal line and in the passing game, yes, he is down.

 

[jbz]

You should attempt to trade down and pick up any type of extra value if you really want Rudy. All the guys mentioned have some ?s and with Rudi we pretty much know what we're going to get. Less upside then Jackson or Jordan, but a lot more proven. I'd try the trade down and let the decision be made for me if you're that torn.

 

[Jazzman]

He'll be OK but why not draft someone else and trade for him? Jordan/Harrison for Rudi/TO (or similar) would be the way to go.

 

[Spartans Rule]

yes you are crazy.You take a RB with receiving numbers to add, like SJax, Jordan or Cadillac.Bad idea to draft a RB, however effective, who is handicapped by the fact that he doesn't catch the ball.

I normally agree, but when a running back can handle a 340+ carry load, plays for a team with a great O-line and gets goal line carries for an offense that could lead the league in TDs, he doesn't have to catch the ball.That scenario describes not only Rudi Johnson 2006 but also Shaun Alexander 2005. Not that Rudi will match those numbers or come even close as I don't think he's as good as SA, but there's plenty of upside just in rush yards and TDs.

 

[Otis]

Cadillac down?

Near the goal line and in the passing game, yes, he is down.

Give it a year bucko.Stud.

 

[FFFIEND]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

 

[Rusty Syringes]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

I'm surprised no one mentioned Ronnie Brown up until this point.

 

[jbz]

strength of schedule changes dramatically as the season actually progresses. What was a strong run defense the year before could be a weak one this coming year and vice-versa. Using that as way to make your decision is risky IMO.

 

[Blackjacks]

yes you are crazy.You take a RB with receiving numbers to add, like SJax, Jordan or Cadillac.Bad idea to draft a RB, however effective, who is handicapped by the fact that he doesn't catch the ball.

I hate to tell you but Rudi had 3 more catches than your "golden boy" Cadillac. I hold the #10 spot in a draft in 2 weeks and I hope Rudi is there for me. Perry might steal some catches but I wouldn't consider him the third down back for the Bungles. Pittman is 100% that man in TB. Also Rudi is always in inside the 20....I don't think you can say the same for the little Caddy.

 

[joffer]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

just curious, do those analysis generally count week 17 (vs. PIT in Rudi's case)?

 

[kolejo]

so who are you skipping with that, edge or tiki? cause i'm not passing either one of those guys if they are there at 6 which one of them has to be.

 

[Buckna]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

That was the same complaint about Rudi before the 2004 season and all he managed to do was put up nearly 1700 combined yards and 12 TD's.

 

[footballbook]

1 Clinton Portis2 Ladainian Tomlinson3 Larry Johnson4 Rudi Johnson 5 Shaun Alexander

Portis one whats this guy smoking. The best rb left is rudi take him . Came into camp ready to roll weight down and in great shape look for career numbers.

 

[gocats]

Cadillac down?

Near the goal line and in the passing game, Plus 4-5 games where you cant start him do to injury and inconsistency yes, he is down.

 

[Big Score]

Portis one, whats this guy smoking.

The Al Saunders herb

 

[Purpulhippo999]

what you should do is swap picks for a low first rounder, and get ronnie brown who is going to tear it up this year

 

[Post Corner]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

Lightning won't strike Rudi twice -- he will TANK THIS YEAR!! He may have squeaked through last year, but not this year. Anomolies can and do happen.As for SOS, I used it to get Ahman Green in 2003 (best SOS reg season AND playoffs). I also used it to get Alexander in 2004 based on his playoff SOS --- he did great during that stretch.

Ronnie Brown is looking better all the time. Give me some of that Ronnie Kool-Aid!!!

Brown = TOP 5 BACK at end of 2006.

 

[BigRed]

Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06?

Yes, what a radical pick You could easily make a case for any handful of RBs after the top 5 or even 3, though most would say Portis/Barber at 4 and 5.

 

[cheeseypoof]

I'm drafting from the 6 hole, and am torn between Rudi and S-Jax, but I'm leaning more toward Rudi because he has a proven track record moreso that Jackson. Rudi's ADP is ~ 1.11, and FBG projections have him as RB8 behind Jackson & Jordan. Am I crazy for considering him at 1.06? IMO he can surpass his production from last year given that he was hobbled by nagging injuries last year. Granted, their schedule looks to be tougher than last year.

Rudi was taken at 1.07 (6th Runningback taken) in my draft yesterday. The order went: L Johnson, S Alexander, L Tomlinson, L Jordan, C Portis, P Manning, R Johnson.I was a little suprised that Lamont Jordan and Rudi Johnson went before Tiki Barber.

 

[Broncobiv]

Lightning won't strike Rudi twice -- he will TANK THIS YEAR!! He may have squeaked through last year, but not this year. Anomolies can and do happen.

Umm...lightning already did strike Rudi twice.2004: 1,454 yards, 12 TD2005: 1,458 yards, 12 TDI'd hardly call last year an anomaly.

 

[videoguy505]

Lightning won't strike Rudi twice -- he will TANK THIS YEAR!! He may have squeaked through last year, but not this year. Anomolies can and do happen.

Umm...lightning already did strike Rudi twice.2004: 1,454 yards, 12 TD2005: 1,458 yards, 12 TDI'd hardly call last year an anomaly.

LOL, although I'd call it an anomaly anytime someone repeats within 00.2% of their previous season.

 

[No. 16]

Eudi is the safest RB at that point and he's darn conistsent. Palmer no Plamer he'll get his.

The saying goes.. "You don't win FF championships in the 1st round, but you can lose them there"

GO Rudi and dont look back.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Yes.

 

[Verbal Kint]

so who are you skipping with that, edge or tiki? cause i'm not passing either one of those guys if they are there at 6 which one of them has to be.

I expect Tiki to be gone by the 6th pick. I'll pass on Edge, considering he was only the #5 & #6 RB the last 2 years he was featured in the INDY offense. IMO he has nowhere to go but down, and could go down far.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

That was the same complaint about Rudi before the 2004 season and all he managed to do was put up nearly 1700 combined yards and 12 TD's.

They have one of the best offensive lines in football.

 

[FUBAR]

Eudi is the safest RB at that point and he's darn conistsent. Palmer no Plamer he'll get his.

Rudi is one of many legit picks at 6. I'd trade down if possible, but I'd take Rudi over Edge this year. Probably not Brown, but I don't mind a little risk.

 

[Local303]

I'm with the majority here, if you want Rudi trade down. Talk with #7 and #8 pick about Jordon and see who has interest.

- Watch out - Rudi in late fist round and you may see Chad Johnson in early 2nd round - DANGER

 

[ScottNorwood]

There are about 10 players you could take at 1.06 that I wouldn't consider reaches. There's a lot of parity after the top 5 are picked.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Ah, the 6th pick. Well, I have it too and I hate it.

Presumably, in some order the top 3 go: L.Johnson, S.Alexander, L.Tomlinson.

Then, 4, 5 most likely go: Portis, Barber

Then I see 6-11 as these guys (in no particular order): R.Johnson, S.Jackson, L.Jordan, R.Brown, E.James, C.Williams.

To me, this makes the top 3 picks the best (as they will still get an uber stud RB and still land a decent RB2 and a top WR).

And if you don't score a top 3 pick, then pick 11 may be the best place to sit. You'd get one of the 11 above and a pick very soon thereafter (in a 12 team league).

6 stinks!!

 

[Payne]

I have pick 1.07 and am thinking hard about taking Rudi.

My strategy is to take a WR in round 2 and then a RB in round 3 who will certainly have question marks.

Having Rudi as a consistent #1 RB makes this strategy more comfortable.

 

[Warpig]

Don't forget that due to the fact that Rudi isn't a part of the passing game, they bring in Perry alot on third downs and since they like to throw alot in goalline situations (ala indy colts), Perry vultures several TD's from Rudi. I had Rudi last year and there's nothing more frustrating than watching a different RB come in for goalline situations. Kinda like when Robert Smith would run the ball to the 1 yard line and then they'd bring in Moe Williams.

 

[FFFIEND]

Rudi has the WORST rushing strength of schedule 32nd out of 32 TEAMS!!**

I would rather take one of the other Auburn RBs (Caddy or Ronnie). One great reason to like Ronnie is that he has the 6th best rushing strength of schedule**. So I will have to go Ronnie all the way at #6!

**ref: http://www.footballdocs.com/run_schedule_strength.html

That was the same complaint about Rudi before the 2004 season and all he managed to do was put up nearly 1700 combined yards and 12 TD's.

They have one of the best offensive lines in football.

I will give you that the O-Line of CIN is one of the best (I get that from the same source as above). However, with all of the legal problems and and the Questions about Carson Palmer's health, I just don't think Rudi is deserving of quiet that high of a pick. Add to that the tremendous number of carries he has had over the past few years and I just can't take him that high. I think the Bengals are going down the crapper this year and they are taking SOME of Rudi's stats with them. HE WILL still be a solid back, but I have my doubts about him hitting top 7 or 8.

 

[The Jerk]

Don't forget that due to the fact that Rudi isn't a part of the passing game, they bring in Perry alot on third downs and since they like to throw alot in goalline situations (ala indy colts), Perry vultures several TD's from Rudi. I had Rudi last year and there's nothing more frustrating than watching a different RB come in for goalline situations. Kinda like when Robert Smith would run the ball to the 1 yard line and then they'd bring in Moe Williams.

That "vulture" Chris Perry had all of 2 TDs for the entire season last year. Both were receptions: 1-yd vs. TENN on a 1st and Goal, and a 4-yd vs. GB on a 3rd and Goal. I'd say only the 1-yard catch was "vulture" material.Unless the definition of several has suddenly changed to include 1, you're not well informed here. If you are projecting Perry to become more of a factor this year, that's a different story, but then you probably should give a reason why.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yes.

We want BRONG!

 

[packersfan]

Rudi's not a sexy pick. He's not flashy. He doesn't have the big-time upside of guys like Cadillac, Jackson or Brown. He's criticized because he doesn't add anything of significance in the passing game.

All he does is produce consistently.

He's topped 1,450 yards each of the past two seasons and has scored 12 TDs each of the past two seasons. He's ranked 7th and 8th in fantasy scoring the past two seasons and three seasons ago he ranked 19th while sharing time with Corey Dillon. There may not be much upside with Rudi but there's very little downside. He's durable, he's clearly his team's featured ballcarrier, he's in a great situation and you don't have to worry about him losing potential rushing touchdowns.

If you want an upside play, go with Cadillac, Jackson or Brown. But be aware those guys have a much higher risk of falling short of expectations. With Rudi, you can book his production because he's done it consistently each of the past two seasons. You know what you're doing to get and what you're getting is a legit Top 10 fantasy RB.

In a season where there is so much uncertainty after the Top 3-5 RBs, I'd say that makes Rudi a pretty damn good pick in the first round. So if you like him at six, take him at six and enjoy the ride.

 

[Warpig]

Don't forget that due to the fact that Rudi isn't a part of the passing game, they bring in Perry alot on third downs and since they like to throw alot in goalline situations (ala indy colts), Perry vultures several TD's from Rudi. I had Rudi last year and there's nothing more frustrating than watching a different RB come in for goalline situations. Kinda like when Robert Smith would run the ball to the 1 yard line and then they'd bring in Moe Williams.

That "vulture" Chris Perry had all of 2 TDs for the entire season last year. Both were receptions: 1-yd vs. TENN on a 1st and Goal, and a 4-yd vs. GB on a 3rd and Goal. I'd say only the 1-yard catch was "vulture" material.Unless the definition of several has suddenly changed to include 1, you're not well informed here. If you are projecting Perry to become more of a factor this year, that's a different story, but then you probably should give a reason why.

That's still two too many. The simple fact is nobody wants their starting RB being pulled in goalline or 3rd down situations. And if Perry is healthy, why would his workload decrease? I would assume that his numbers would only increase as they continue to groom him. Rudi has to hope that he busts one from about 40 yards out to give himself a chance at scoring. And if my memory serves me correctly, I don't think Rudi had too many runs of over 20 yds. He's more of a banger. Due to Rudi's running style you would think they would want him in in goalline situations. But Cinci likes to bring in Perry to try and get a mismatch. I'm not saying he isn't consistent, but I don't know if I'd take him at #6. I'd probably rather go with Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown at #6 since those guys don't have a decent threat behind them to vulture TD's.

 

[packersfan]

Don't forget that due to the fact that Rudi isn't a part of the passing game, they bring in Perry alot on third downs and since they like to throw alot in goalline situations (ala indy colts), Perry vultures several TD's from Rudi. I had Rudi last year and there's nothing more frustrating than watching a different RB come in for goalline situations. Kinda like when Robert Smith would run the ball to the 1 yard line and then they'd bring in Moe Williams.

That "vulture" Chris Perry had all of 2 TDs for the entire season last year. Both were receptions: 1-yd vs. TENN on a 1st and Goal, and a 4-yd vs. GB on a 3rd and Goal. I'd say only the 1-yard catch was "vulture" material.Unless the definition of several has suddenly changed to include 1, you're not well informed here. If you are projecting Perry to become more of a factor this year, that's a different story, but then you probably should give a reason why.

That's still two too many. The simple fact is nobody wants their starting RB being pulled in goalline or 3rd down situations.

Rudi scored 8 of his 12 TDs from the 5-yard line or closer last season compared to 0 for Perry. How exactly is he being vultured for TDs by Perry, when Perry isn't even scoring rushing touchdowns, much less scoring touchdowns period? Perry's talented, no doubt about it, but he's not proven to be a major threat to Rudi in terms of carries (Rudi had 16 carries or more in 14 games last season, including 9 games with 20 or more) and he's not proven to be a threat in terms of stealing goal-line touchdowns. On top of that, Perry has yet to prove he can stay healthy whereas Rudi has proven to be very durable.I like Chris Perry. I think he's a genuine talent. But if you're shying away from Rudi due to the belief that Perry is vulturing significant production away from Rudi I think you're making a big mistake. Rudi's a legit Top 10 fantasy RB; Perry is a quality backup who has only proven he can be a spot play as a RB3, primarily in PPR leagues.

 

[The Jerk]

Don't forget that due to the fact that Rudi isn't a part of the passing game, they bring in Perry alot on third downs and since they like to throw alot in goalline situations (ala indy colts), Perry vultures several TD's from Rudi. I had Rudi last year and there's nothing more frustrating than watching a different RB come in for goalline situations. Kinda like when Robert Smith would run the ball to the 1 yard line and then they'd bring in Moe Williams.

That "vulture" Chris Perry had all of 2 TDs for the entire season last year. Both were receptions: 1-yd vs. TENN on a 1st and Goal, and a 4-yd vs. GB on a 3rd and Goal. I'd say only the 1-yard catch was "vulture" material.Unless the definition of several has suddenly changed to include 1, you're not well informed here. If you are projecting Perry to become more of a factor this year, that's a different story, but then you probably should give a reason why.

That's still two too many. The simple fact is nobody wants their starting RB being pulled in goalline or 3rd down situations.

Rudi scored 8 of his 12 TDs from the 5-yard line or closer last season compared to 0 for Perry. How exactly is he being vultured for TDs by Perry, when Perry isn't even scoring rushing touchdowns, much less scoring touchdowns period? Perry's talented, no doubt about it, but he's not proven to be a major threat to Rudi in terms of carries (Rudi had 16 carries or more in 14 games last season, including 9 games with 20 or more) and he's not proven to be a threat in terms of stealing goal-line touchdowns. On top of that, Perry has yet to prove he can stay healthy whereas Rudi has proven to be very durable.I like Chris Perry. I think he's a genuine talent. But if you're shying away from Rudi due to the belief that Perry is vulturing significant production away from Rudi I think you're making a big mistake. Rudi's a legit Top 10 fantasy RB; Perry is a quality backup who has only proven he can be a spot play as a RB3, primarily in PPR leagues.

Thanks packersfan. I don't mind arguing against a player, but there needs to be some reality checking and accounting for comments. Well done.