Running Backs 2008 - Were there any flukes? (1 Viewer)

[gonzobill5]

A lot of running backs came out of nowhere in 2008 to become bona fide RB 1s & 2s. History tells us that some of these guys will disappear in 2009.

My question is: who are the guys who were in the top twenty in 2008 that are going to be so irrelevant that they are not even worth a roster spot? Not because of injury, but more because everything aligned so well for him in 08, that repeating that success just won't happen. In other words, who are the guys that when we look back on their careers, 2008 will look like a fluke.

I went back to 2000 and found guys in every year (except 2004) who were in the top 15ish in one year, but was nowhere near it the year before or after. Lots of the players went from nowhere to RB1s or solid RB2s back to nowhere, while others dropped down to RB3s and 4s.

Player Ranking N-1 N N+1

Mike Anderson N/A 4 34

Anthony Thomas N/A 13 33

Stacey Mack 89 16 37

Dominic Rhodes N/A 11 83

Antowain Smith 45 9 23

Kevan Barlow 35 17 27

Michael Pittman 23 16 42

Michael Bennett 29 17 48

Moe Williams 29 13 52

LaMont Jordan 43 8 55

Ladell Betts 55 10 59

Earnest Graham 120 11 44

Looking at the names on the list, I'll highlight a few risk factors.

Risk Factor #1: No prior history in top 15-20

For the most part, that's what all the guys on the list have in common, and there are LOTS of players in 2008's top 15 that haven't been there before.

DeAngelo, Turner, Forte, Slaton, Jacobs, Johnson, Ronnie Brown, McClain, Kevin Smith

Risk Factor #2: Taking over a starting job due to an injury

Seems to obvious to mention, but I remember being so scared of drafting Portis without handcuffing Betts to him. A lot of good that did!

Slaton is the only guy even close to fitting this criteria that I see, but its a stretch

Risk Factor #3: Being a rookie

This is especially concerning this year. Forte, Johnson, Slaton, Kevin Smith and Jonathan Stewart are all being drafted with high expectations. I would not be surprised to see 2 or 3 of them lay an egg.

Risk Factor #4: Scoring a large proportion of your points by receiving OR scoring a large proportion of your points by TDs

Just about every guy on my list fits this category. I used FBG's rankings, which do not give points for receptions. If you play in a PPR league you should be especially wary. It just makes logical sense that its better to have a balanced RB. The best thing about the criteria is, it is just as easy to identify as #1 and #2.

TDs- Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, Jacobs, White, McClain

Rec- Matt Forte, Jones-Drew, Marion Barber

So, as you sit around a digest from your BBQs today, take a look at last years top 20 and tell me who you think is the biggest risk and most importantly, why.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

I think one of those rookie RB's from last year are going to disappoint big time this year. I'm not sure who it will be and I have nothing to back this up, but it just seems like it will hapen.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I would like this thread better if it included a top 20 to reference, rather than making me look it up.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

If we're talking about a guy just seriously underperforming compared to his 2008 totals, to me this one is pretty easy: DeAngelo Williams.

Not because I think he sucks, or doesn't have the talent to put up numbers if given the chance, but because 20 total TDs isn't something that he's likely to repeat. 1600+ total yards on less than 300 touches isn't that easy either. He may have been sort of a "perfect storm" in 2008. Could he do it again? Sure. I just don't expect it. Sorta like Gore coming off of his 2000+ total yards going into 2007, Williams really has nowhere to go except down. So many of his points were predicated on touchdowns it's going to be hard for him to repeat that output. He'll probably still be top 20 again, if he remains healthy and the Panthers keep the same philosophy, but he's not likely to be anywhere near RB1-3 this year.

If we're talking about a guy who totally disappears from the top 20 that wasn't there the year before? Well, in my leauge LeRon McClain was #20, so I'll cherry pick and go with him.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If we're talking about a guy just seriously underperforming compared to his 2008 totals, to me this one is pretty easy: DeAngelo Williams.

Not because I think he sucks, or doesn't have the talent to put up numbers if given the chance, but because 20 total TDs isn't something that he's likely to repeat. 1600+ total yards on less than 300 touches isn't that easy either. He may have been sort of a "perfect storm" in 2008. Could he do it again? Sure. I just don't expect it. Sorta like Gore coming off of his 2000+ total yards going into 2007, Williams really has nowhere to go except down. So many of his points were predicated on touchdowns it's going to be hard for him to repeat that output. He'll probably still be top 20 again, if he remains healthy and the Panthers keep the same philosophy, but he's not likely to be anywhere near RB1-3 this year.

If we're talking about a guy who totally disappears from the top 20 that wasn't there the year before? Well, in my leauge LeRon McClain was #20, so I'll cherry pick and go with him.

I wanted to comment on this because it's similar to a conversation in another thread, and I see this kind of reasoning fairly often. When you mention a list of guys who've had big years and use the phrase 'perfect storm', or 'nowhere to go but down', what that boils down to is that they had those big seasons because they were lucky. There's an implication there that I never see anybody mention, and it's that the top 3 guys are just determined by luck.When I say top 3 guys I'm talking about big year guys that everybody hunts with the top 3 picks ---- it's certainly possible that we don't get a big year guy, and the top 5 are a close knit bunch of 'good' years in the 10-15 td range, let's say. But in this case, it's not so critical who you select with your #1 draft pick.

What everybody's looking for when they draft 1-3 is that white whale year from Tomlinson, Alexander, Deangelo, et al, but after the fact these seasons are invariably attributed to a 'perfect storm' of luck, so I'm not sure what the point is.

If it's true that it's so unlikely for a player to repeat a big 20 td year, then the implication is that the big year guy from next year will be somebody who didn't have a big year last year ---- and I find that reasoning a little counterintuitive.

We're basically saying we should ignore that 20 td guy in favor of some unknown 10 td guy just because he had 10 td's instead of 20.

In Deangelo's case, specifically, he dodged the curse of the heavy workload, but because of this he gets knocked for his light workload and rbbc --- he's apparently scored too many points to be any good next year, and his second half production was unsustainable, despite the fact that his first half production was possibly unusually low.

If his second half 'regresses to the mean' shouldn't his first half also progress to that mean?

 

[offdee]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

 

[Black]

Risk Factor #1: No prior history in top 15-20

Risk Factor #2: Taking over a starting job due to an injury

Risk Factor #3: Being a rookie

Risk Factor #4: Scoring a large proportion of your points by receiving OR scoring a large proportion of your points by TDs

Very interesting study with great food for thought.While I agree with the above risks, I am not sure that they all apply now as they did in the past.

As recently as 6-8 years ago, I am not sure that we had the RBBC that we are seeing today. The last couple of years, all the teams in the Conference Championships have had clear RBBC.

Risk 1 ('No Prior History in Top 20') and Risk 2 ('Points from Rec or TDs') are more of a representation of the shift towards 2- and now 3-back RBBC. Knowing that we have 2-3 back backfields, we'd expect some pass-catching specialists to move into prominence. I think this quickly 'promotes' a number of RBs that are non-typical bellcows, so more likelihood a guy comes out of nowhere.

Why we have the shift to RBBC is probably worth discussion on its own...more spread offense? more passing schemes that include the RB?

The rookies factor in to the Risk 1 and 2 categories also. A team might have a bellcow, then grab a quick, pass-catching scatback out of college to get 10-15 carries a game. There are more of these than the 'prototypical' 3-down RB, so teams grab them in the draft, since it's cheaper than paying for an established back.

Actually, because RBBC is 'fairly' new, there might not be that many of these guys available in free agency. Maybe I am wrong, but I can only think of a few cagey vets who fit this profile...guys who are purely role players. Kevin Faulk comes to mind.

Regarding the Risk Factor 3 ('Being a Rookie'), it seems that RBs careers are shorter and shorter due to injury (again maybe another study worth pursuing). Between that and the exorbitant cost of free agents, teams are relying more on rookies to fill these very specific roles.

Risk Factor 2 ('Taking a Starting Job Due to Injury'), aka the "Ladell Betts" Rule, is very interesting. You might use this argument for guys that take over late in the season or guys that have a very good Points Per Game but very few starts. I think guys like T. Choice fall into this category. They are merely good handcuffs and dynasty league targets. But, you'll also have guys like Larry Johnson (the year he stepped in for priest) and Ryan Grant who take and keep those jobs.

On Risk Factor 4, I think this is actually two Risk Factors...Guys who Score on Receptions, Guys who score mostly on TDs. The second category is a bigger concern to me and is simply a function of who the designated goalline guy is.

 

[Banger]

Definitely T. Jones...I wouldn't touch him at this point.

I don't know why but I'm not a believer in Forte...yes, he's going to get all the touches, improved QB situation and I'm sure he'll do great this year but when I watch him I'm not that impressed with him.

I think D. Williams takes a pretty decent step back this year

 

[corpcow]

I think one of those rookie RB's from last year are going to disappoint big time this year. I'm not sure who it will be and I have nothing to back this up, but it just seems like it will hapen.

Personally, I think it will be Forte as his opportunities drop. I've been over this repeatedly, but he was FORCE FED last year... no one had more opportunity and no one did less relative to their opportunity.Many think Cutler will help his YPC, but I think his receptions will drop greatly (which is where much of his value came from in PPR leagues). I just feel like such a huge % of the offense went through him last year and I don't think that'll be the case this year. That's not to say he's "bad" or that he was a "fluke" or that he still won't be an RB1, but I just don't think he'll be a top 5 RB or that we'll see any improvement which some are reading into him.

 

[Balance]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

How do you move Kevin Smith DOWN after last year? He had 56 carries through the first 8 games last year.

 

[Black]

If we're talking about a guy just seriously underperforming compared to his 2008 totals, to me this one is pretty easy: DeAngelo Williams.

I think you have to look at the team's planning and/or exactly what happened, esp with a player like DeAngelo. In favor DeAngelo repeating are

1) his age,

2) relatively light workload thus far in his career,

3) his draft stock (was a 1st rounder),

4) opportunity (didn't produce his first year or so due to true shared workload*),

5) still in-tact offensive line, 6) still in-tact skill players, and 7) the fact that he had nearly as many 30+ yard TD runs as Jim Brown did in 1958.

Against DeAngelo reproducing those numbers...

1) easy schedule last year, difficult SOS this year. I think they were ahead in alot of games last year and ran-ran-ran. I know, b/c I had Delhomme as my QB, and his TD totals were bad. In fact, to me it looked like Delhomme couldn't get the ball downfield like he used to, as S.Smith was coming back for balls alot, often being downed inside the 5 yard line. Their schedule gets alot harder this year. One thing I checked was his stats against bad Defenses were very, very good. He still did well vs. good DEF (TB for instance, on that Monday night game), but he shredded bad defenses. SOS speaking, in 2009, CAR has 15 games vs. teams that were over 0.500 in 2008. SOS at the 5th Down

2) More even carry-split with a possibly healthier Jon Stewart. In as least 2 of DeAngelo's multi-TD games last year, Jon Stewart was taken out of the game due to injury and DeAngelo got the call near the goalline. I think CAR intends for a more even split, so assuming Stewart is healthier this year, there's probably a more even split.

 

[Black]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

TJones should be losing goalline carries to Shonn Greene, so those TD totals probably won't be there. I don't see Kevin Smith doing worse...he did great in a crap offense that should be getting better (plus a DEF that can only improve), meaning he should see more carries. I don't think DET has anyone in line to take his carries.

LenDale and Jamal are risks (Jamal due to age), but should continue to be goalline guys. Maybe we just see some more guys creep above them.

 

[gianmarco]

If we're talking about a guy just seriously underperforming compared to his 2008 totals, to me this one is pretty easy: DeAngelo Williams.

Not because I think he sucks, or doesn't have the talent to put up numbers if given the chance, but because 20 total TDs isn't something that he's likely to repeat. 1600+ total yards on less than 300 touches isn't that easy either. He may have been sort of a "perfect storm" in 2008. Could he do it again? Sure. I just don't expect it. Sorta like Gore coming off of his 2000+ total yards going into 2007, Williams really has nowhere to go except down. So many of his points were predicated on touchdowns it's going to be hard for him to repeat that output. He'll probably still be top 20 again, if he remains healthy and the Panthers keep the same philosophy, but he's not likely to be anywhere near RB1-3 this year.

If we're talking about a guy who totally disappears from the top 20 that wasn't there the year before? Well, in my leauge LeRon McClain was #20, so I'll cherry pick and go with him.

I wanted to comment on this because it's similar to a conversation in another thread, and I see this kind of reasoning fairly often. When you mention a list of guys who've had big years and use the phrase 'perfect storm', or 'nowhere to go but down', what that boils down to is that they had those big seasons because they were lucky. There's an implication there that I never see anybody mention, and it's that the top 3 guys are just determined by luck.When I say top 3 guys I'm talking about big year guys that everybody hunts with the top 3 picks ---- it's certainly possible that we don't get a big year guy, and the top 5 are a close knit bunch of 'good' years in the 10-15 td range, let's say. But in this case, it's not so critical who you select with your #1 draft pick.

What everybody's looking for when they draft 1-3 is that white whale year from Tomlinson, Alexander, Deangelo, et al, but after the fact these seasons are invariably attributed to a 'perfect storm' of luck, so I'm not sure what the point is.

If it's true that it's so unlikely for a player to repeat a big 20 td year, then the implication is that the big year guy from next year will be somebody who didn't have a big year last year ---- and I find that reasoning a little counterintuitive.

We're basically saying we should ignore that 20 td guy in favor of some unknown 10 td guy just because he had 10 td's instead of 20.

In Deangelo's case, specifically, he dodged the curse of the heavy workload, but because of this he gets knocked for his light workload and rbbc --- he's apparently scored too many points to be any good next year, and his second half production was unsustainable, despite the fact that his first half production was possibly unusually low.

If his second half 'regresses to the mean' shouldn't his first half also progress to that mean?

One of the best posts I've read here in a long time.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Risk Factor #1: No prior history in top 15-20For the most part, that's what all the guys on the list have in common, and there are LOTS of players in 2008's top 15 that haven't been there before.

I have to take issue with this one.Every player who finishes in the top 20 has to do it a first time. Thus, none of those players were top 20 finishers prior to that. It really isn't a risk factor if every RB who ever finished in the top 20 qualifies.In other words, being a first time finisher in the top 20 tells us absolutely nothing about whether or not that RB will repeat with another top 20 finish.

 

[offdee]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

How do you move Kevin Smith DOWN after last year? He had 56 carries through the first 8 games last year.

I just don't think he's a very special talent and will be exposed soon enough. So, to directly address the OP's question of "flukes" from last year my votes would go to:- Steve Slaton

- Kevin Smith

The other guys I bolded have done it in the past already and are older so predicting there decline isn't earth shattering.

 

[gonzobill5]

Thanks to everyone for their thoughts.

Sorry for not including the top 20 lists - in my half assed analysis I used FBGs top twenty, but with "risk factor #4" a ppr top twenty list would be much more appropriate. I sort of intended for everyone to scan whatever list they use to try to see on their own if any different patterns emerge.

In response to TheScot - the first risk factor isn't really saying anything more than we need to take a closer look at these new guys. Not only could their respective stays in the Top 20 be short lived - they could also be the guys who carve out a place in the top 5 for many years in a row.

Do any other trends stand out? There are a few teams like Minnesota, TB and Denver that have repeated players - what do you make of this?

 

[FWmaker]

T Jones

L White

J Lewis

And if M Lynch has to serve the 3-Game suspension, don't be surprised if he drops out.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Thanks to everyone for their thoughts. In response to TheScot - the first risk factor isn't really saying anything more than we need to take a closer look at these new guys. Not only could their respective stays in the Top 20 be short lived - they could also be the guys who carve out a place in the top 5 for many years in a row.

Exactly...so it isn't a risk factor by definition.It's like saying "trying" is a risk factor for "failing". Or that having grace is a risk factor for falling from it. Everyone who succeeded tried. Everyone who failed tried. So "trying" provides no real insight into who will fail and who succeed when they try.The question is: Which of these RB's new to the top 20 can repeat in 2009?You are looking for the differences and likenesses as compared to those that have repeated and those that have not. The one thing both the repeaters and the non-repeaters have in common is that they got there a first time.I'm not trying to beat you up, just questioning your methodology, so to speak. I'm probably just mincing words. You can ignore me. Without knowing who your top 20 were, or at least who you are wondering about, and some scoring details for your system, it's harder to predict who will not make it back in.

 

[gonzobill5]

You are looking for the differences and likenesses as compared to those that have repeated and those that have not. The one thing both the repeaters and the non-repeaters have in common is that they got there a first time.

I agree with your argument. I was trying to establish the population of interest and it probably shouldn't have been labeled as it was.

Without knowing who your top 20 were, or at least who you are wondering about, and some scoring details for your system, it's harder to predict who will not make it back in.

The top 20 I used was FBGs list that uses the standard 6 points for a TD, 1 point for 10 yards rushing or receiving but intended to leave it open for everyone to use their scoring system. I play in a wide variety of leagues and I think risk factors into different leagues in very different ways. I guess this made things more confusing.

 

[houndirish]

I don't think Slaton will do as well as he did in his rookie campaign, but I'm not quite ready to write him out of the top 20.

My best guesstimates are Lynch, Lendale and McClain falling out. Best chances to replace them are, in no particular order ...

Knowshon Moreno

Ryan Grant

Larry Johnson

(J. Lewis wasn't in my top 20 or I would've picked him to fall out)

MB3 finished 16th in my league last year. With Felix's return to health and Choice's emergence as a guy who can log carries to spell the starters, I could see Barber potentially finishing a whisker out of the top 20 too.

Not to threadjack but I'm interested in how many people think Cedric Benson will finish top 20 (I don't).

 

[FF Newbie]

Thanks to everyone for their thoughts.

In response to TheScot - the first risk factor isn't really saying anything more than we need to take a closer look at these new guys. Not only could their respective stays in the Top 20 be short lived - they could also be the guys who carve out a place in the top 5 for many years in a row.

Exactly...so it isn't a risk factor by definition.It's like saying "trying" is a risk factor for "failing". Or that having grace is a risk factor for falling from it. Everyone who succeeded tried. Everyone who failed tried. So "trying" provides no real insight into who will fail and who succeed when they try.

The question is: Which of these RB's new to the top 20 can repeat in 2009?

You are looking for the differences and likenesses as compared to those that have repeated and those that have not. The one thing both the repeaters and the non-repeaters have in common is that they got there a first time.

I rarely post here, but this is incorrect. You're over-simplifying. It's not that making the top-20 the first time is a risk factor; it's that never having repeated is a risk factor. RBs who have finished in the top-20 multiple times have proven/established themselves and are inherently less risky than a player who has only finished in the top-20 a single time (until a player gets older, introducing an additional risk). Wouldn't you agree that all other things remaining equal, a player who has finished in the top-20 for three straight seasons is a better bet to finish there again than a player who has only cracked the top-20 a single time? A single season in the top-20 could be a statistical outlier. It might not be, but it could be, so there is risk involved. If a back has finished in the top-20 for three straight seasons, there is no chance that those are statistical outliers, so by definition there is less risk.

 

[FF Newbie]

Risk Factor #1: No prior history in top 15-20

For the most part, that's what all the guys on the list have in common, and there are LOTS of players in 2008's top 15 that haven't been there before.

I have to take issue with this one.Every player who finishes in the top 20 has to do it a first time.

Thus, none of those players were top 20 finishers prior to that.

It really isn't a risk factor if every RB who ever finished in the top 20 qualifies.

In other words, being a first time finisher in the top 20 tells us absolutely nothing about whether or not that RB will repeat with another top 20 finish.

It is true that every RB who finishes in the top-20 has to do so a first time. It is not true that every RB who finishes in the top-20 has repeated or finished in the top-20 multiple times. Therefore, it can and should be used as a factor to determine risk. Whether or not every player had a first good season is irrelevant. Players who have repeated and established themselves as premier backs with multiple strong seasons carry much less risk than a player who has had only one good season. There are countless examples (see Anthony Thomas), however, this is logically intuitive, so it is not necessary to list them all.

 

[gonzobill5]

Risk Factor #1: No prior history in top 15-20

For the most part, that's what all the guys on the list have in common, and there are LOTS of players in 2008's top 15 that haven't been there before.

I have to take issue with this one.Every player who finishes in the top 20 has to do it a first time.

Thus, none of those players were top 20 finishers prior to that.

It really isn't a risk factor if every RB who ever finished in the top 20 qualifies.

In other words, being a first time finisher in the top 20 tells us absolutely nothing about whether or not that RB will repeat with another top 20 finish.

It is true that every RB who finishes in the top-20 has to do so a first time. It is not true that every RB who finishes in the top-20 has repeated or finished in the top-20 multiple times. Therefore, it can and should be used as a factor to determine risk. Whether or not every player had a first good season is irrelevant. Players who have repeated and established themselves as premier backs with multiple strong seasons carry much less risk than a player who has had only one good season. There are countless examples (see Anthony Thomas), however, this is logically intuitive, so it is not necessary to list them all.

What other factors do you consider to try to gauge risk?

 

[FF Newbie]

What other factors do you consider to try to gauge risk?

I haven't spent much time thinking about it and I'm sure others here could add more, but off the top of my head, these would all be factors that would increase risk:1. Age2. Recent injury3. History of injury4. New team5. Turnover of player/coaching personnel6. Character/suspension concerns7. Lack of productive history/one year wonder concerns8. Team drafted a player early or added an impact free agent at same position

 

[gregjcross]

If we're talking about a guy just seriously underperforming compared to his 2008 totals, to me this one is pretty easy: DeAngelo Williams.

Not because I think he sucks, or doesn't have the talent to put up numbers if given the chance, but because 20 total TDs isn't something that he's likely to repeat. 1600+ total yards on less than 300 touches isn't that easy either. He may have been sort of a "perfect storm" in 2008. Could he do it again? Sure. I just don't expect it. Sorta like Gore coming off of his 2000+ total yards going into 2007, Williams really has nowhere to go except down. So many of his points were predicated on touchdowns it's going to be hard for him to repeat that output. He'll probably still be top 20 again, if he remains healthy and the Panthers keep the same philosophy, but he's not likely to be anywhere near RB1-3 this year.

If we're talking about a guy who totally disappears from the top 20 that wasn't there the year before? Well, in my leauge LeRon McClain was #20, so I'll cherry pick and go with him.

I wanted to comment on this because it's similar to a conversation in another thread, and I see this kind of reasoning fairly often. When you mention a list of guys who've had big years and use the phrase 'perfect storm', or 'nowhere to go but down', what that boils down to is that they had those big seasons because they were lucky. There's an implication there that I never see anybody mention, and it's that the top 3 guys are just determined by luck.When I say top 3 guys I'm talking about big year guys that everybody hunts with the top 3 picks ---- it's certainly possible that we don't get a big year guy, and the top 5 are a close knit bunch of 'good' years in the 10-15 td range, let's say. But in this case, it's not so critical who you select with your #1 draft pick.

What everybody's looking for when they draft 1-3 is that white whale year from Tomlinson, Alexander, Deangelo, et al, but after the fact these seasons are invariably attributed to a 'perfect storm' of luck, so I'm not sure what the point is.

If it's true that it's so unlikely for a player to repeat a big 20 td year, then the implication is that the big year guy from next year will be somebody who didn't have a big year last year ---- and I find that reasoning a little counterintuitive.

We're basically saying we should ignore that 20 td guy in favor of some unknown 10 td guy just because he had 10 td's instead of 20.

In Deangelo's case, specifically, he dodged the curse of the heavy workload, but because of this he gets knocked for his light workload and rbbc --- he's apparently scored too many points to be any good next year, and his second half production was unsustainable, despite the fact that his first half production was possibly unusually low.

If his second half 'regresses to the mean' shouldn't his first half also progress to that mean?

I don tthink anyone is knocking DeAngelo, just being realistic. I loved him last year as he helped carry me to a title in Yahoo with all his TDs. And yes, that was his talent bursting through holes to and not necessarily being lucky. But would I take him in round 1 expecting the same result this year? Hard to say, but probably a hesitation because he has A) only done it once, B) still shares time with the big back in Jonathan Stewart.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don tthink anyone is knocking DeAngelo, just being realistic. I loved him last year as he helped carry me to a title in Yahoo with all his TDs. And yes, that was his talent bursting through holes to and not necessarily being lucky. But would I take him in round 1 expecting the same result this year? Hard to say, but probably a hesitation because he has A) only done it once, B) still shares time with the big back in Jonathan Stewart.

Well, he shared time last year and it didn't seem to hurt him any.Jacobs shares time.Mojo shares time....Carolina ran the ball 500x last year --- what's league average?Are you really saying he shouldn't go in the first?Who are the guys who have done it more than once that you would draft over him?

 

[jbz]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

I'd have to say Derrick Ward will be hard pressed to repeat a top 20 season.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

that's kind of a surprise answer, seeing as how he was a back up last year and may start for tampa.

 

[•TheRealMcCoy]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

I would have to say Jamal Lewis / and LenDale White yes. Thomas Jones is a possibility? With the addition to Green and Leon still being around. But I would think TJ gets a deal done soon and Rex Ryan runs him into the ground the next couple of years to save Greens legs.

But the one that stands out the most in my mind is Marion Barber! Here is a RB that was going in top 5 to 10 in most drafts last year and now has really dropped! An entire round or two! Add Felix and now Choice to the mix and things not looking promising for Barber. Not to mention it was said after the season(sorry, no link) that Barber will go back to his old role as the "finisher"? I think he drops out of the top 20!

• And I think K. Smith will be a top 10 - 15 RB at worst. Very productive PPR #s for a guy who started the season with only 56 carries in the first 7 games of the season! Ended with 238 att for 976 yds 8 TDs / 39 rec 300 yds recieving! Pretty impressive if you ask me!

 

[Balance]

Our regular season (wks. 1-13) top 20 from last year below. Bolded are the guys that I believe to be the least likely to be in the top 20 this coming season....

1. Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

2. Turner, Michael ATL RB

3. Forte, Matt CHI RB

4. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

5. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

6. Portis, Clinton WAS RB

7. Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. Slaton, Steve HOU RB 169.40

9. Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

10. Johnson, Chris TEN RB

11. Gore, Frank SFO RB

12. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

13. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

14. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 1

15. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

16. Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

17. White, LenDale TEN RB

18. Lewis, Jamal CLE RB

19. Smith, Kevin DET RB

20. Ward, Derrick NYG RB

How do you move Kevin Smith DOWN after last year? He had 56 carries through the first 8 games last year.

I just don't think he's a very special talent and will be exposed soon enough. So, to directly address the OP's question of "flukes" from last year my votes would go to:- Steve Slaton

- Kevin Smith

The other guys I bolded have done it in the past already and are older so predicting there decline isn't earth shattering.

Forget the talent... Kevin Smith could (should) well see 50+ more carries this year and more than few extra catches.Assuming his talent hasn't decreased since last year, you'd think his numbers would (should) improve right?

Am I missing something? Same or improved offense, same player, more opportunities = a better 2009?