Running Backs Coming Off Major Injuries (1 Viewer)

[pwakefield77]

I would love to see a study done on running backs and how they do the year following a major injury. That is on anyone NOT named wes welker. My stance on this right now is just to simply avoid these guys for the year following a major injury. Especially with guys you have to pay a round 1,2, or 3 price for. My motto for rounds 1-3 are to take on as LITTLE as risk as possible in those rounds. A fantastic way to lose your league is to have 1 or 2 guys bust in Rds 1-3. i've noticed in mock drafts guys are having absolutely no problem taking charles and adrian peterson in round 2. Sure charles got hurt very early but will he be 100%. Sure adrian peterson's work ethic is second to none. These guys that are taking adrian peterson in the second round, did they actually even SEE his injury. it was brutal (acl tear, mcl tear, meniscus). Peterson has said he's 50% today. Charles was quoted at saying he's 80% today. As of right now my stance on these guys is to simply avoid this year. let someone else take on the risk in 2012.

Does anyone know of case studies in the past of running backs coming of major knee injuries how they fare the following year?! i need to see some historical trends in order to make a better call here

 

[cstu]

RB Two Year Rule.

Unfortunately this one hasn't been updated and I think there's better analysis that could be done but it's something.

 

[pwakefield77]

awesome cstu! can't wait to read this!

 

[cstu]

Edgerrin James came back 10 months after his ACL to start week 1 of 2002 and he ended up having the worst season of his career in Indy (3.6 YPC).

There are few cases where RB's coming back in less than a year do well - Deuce McAllister came back after 11 months and had his usual season (4.3 YPC) although he tore an ACL again the following year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I cant really remember an NFL RB coming back from a Torn ACL and being even remotely the same. Edge James was anever the same after his. LT was never the same after a torn MCL.

Gore and Mcaghee had terrible injuries in college and went on to have fine careers.

Something about the NFL wear and tear and then being old just leads to knee injuries not being good.

I'd pass on Mendenhall, ADP and Jamaal Charles this year for sure. Show me something before I risk a pick on ya

 

[VA703]

JC

1,1

 

[cstu]

I cant really remember an NFL RB coming back from a Torn ACL and being even remotely the same. Edge James was anever the same after his. LT was never the same after a torn MCL. Gore and Mcaghee had terrible injuries in college and went on to have fine careers.Something about the NFL wear and tear and then being old just leads to knee injuries not being good. I'd pass on Mendenhall, ADP and Jamaal Charles this year for sure. Show me something before I risk a pick on ya

Edge was close to being the same player two years after his ACL, but he missed some games so his final stats from 2003-2005 weren't as impressive as his first two seasons. He stayed healthy in 2004 and has the highest YPC of his career (4.6). Jamal Lewis has his 2000 yard rushing season after the ACL with a 5.3 YPC. He also tore his LCL in college. Lewis has a pretty good 2004 but missed 2 games with an ankle injury that required surgery in the offseason. He never produced at the same level again.One thing about these injuries is that both Edge and Lewis were young when the injury occured (23 and 22). The concern I have about AP is that he was 26 when he torn his ACL.

 

[Sweet Love]

I'll also throw in this tidbit...each year, the surgery gets better. Before I go all "MD" on people (and I am not one..lol), I will say that I had an ACL repair in college (was playing hockey for my school) and got the NY Giants doctor to do the surgery. My personal opinion on this is, it matters less who does the surgery, versus the rehab you get after. Mine was done fine, but as any college kid who was not going pro, I took my rehab for granted, and it showed. Almost anyone can have a "world class doctor" do their surgery; there were three other ACLs done that day and we all shared a big room. Where these guys differ from average Joe, is that they have access to the best facilities and minds for rehab, and frankly, it is their job to get back into shape.

From a FF perspective, I think guys like ADP and Charles will be fine, but when comparing the two situations, I like ADP better. Charles has never been "ridden", and he has the better backup (who also has a great set of hands). I also saw Charles go higher in an SSL draft, so again, you take ADP (not the guy, draft position) into the equation. I think for Peterson, they need him more, and are used to having him lug it. He may run for 1100 yards, 9tds, and 30 receptions, but I almost think if he get on the field early in the season, that is your floor (mind you, I do not see the ceiling much higher).

 

[Banemorth]

I'll just say that I was more than happy to take Charles 3.04 in a startup dynasty. By the time the season starts he will have had a full year to recover. I'd put money on a 1,000+ yard season from him.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I cant really remember an NFL RB coming back from a Torn ACL and being even remotely the same. Edge James was anever the same after his. LT was never the same after a torn MCL.

Gore and Mcaghee had terrible injuries in college and went on to have fine careers.

Something about the NFL wear and tear and then being old just leads to knee injuries not being good.

I'd pass on Mendenhall, ADP and Jamaal Charles this year for sure. Show me something before I risk a pick on ya

Edge was close to being the same player two years after his ACL, but he missed some games so his final stats from 2003-2005 weren't as impressive as his first two seasons. He stayed healthy in 2004 and has the highest YPC of his career (4.6). Jamal Lewis has his 2000 yard rushing season after the ACL with a 5.3 YPC. He also tore his LCL in college. Lewis has a pretty good 2004 but missed 2 games with an ankle injury that required surgery in the offseason. He never produced at the same level again.

One thing about these injuries is that both Edge and Lewis were young when the injury occured (23 and 22). The concern I have about AP is that he was 26 when he torn his ACL.

Beat me to it.Jamal Lewis is thee poster boy for coming back from a torn ACL.

2000

games 16

attempts 309

yards 1,364

avg per carry 4.4

TDs 6

2001

Training Camp

Torn ACL, missed entire 2001 Season

2002

games 16

attempts 308

yards 1,327

avg per carry 4.3

TDs 6

2003

games 16

attempts 387

yards 2,066

avg per carry 5.3

TDs 14

 

[David Yudkin]

I generally tend to avoid backs coming back from major knee injuries (at least the first year). One thing we may not know is how severe each individual injury was. For example, if Jamal Lewis only suffered a partial tear or had no other tears to other ligaments, that might explain his ability to get up to speed and recover quicker. I would not be adverse to drafting ADP or Charles this year if the price was low enough, but I guess there will be a guy in all my drafts that will say those guys are healthy and will take them with a Top 10 or 15 pick.

 

[DoubleG]

I generally tend to avoid backs coming back from major knee injuries (at least the first year). One thing we may not know is how severe each individual injury was. For example, if Jamal Lewis only suffered a partial tear or had no other tears to other ligaments, that might explain his ability to get up to speed and recover quicker. I would not be adverse to drafting ADP or Charles this year if the price was low enough, but I guess there will be a guy in all my drafts that will say those guys are healthy and will take them with a Top 10 or 15 pick.

There is also the fact that the exception does not invalidate the general point. More specifically, just because there is one example (Lewis) of RBs coming back relatively quickly without a drop off, does not mean that it is the norm. In fact, history suggests that Lewis is the exception - not the rule. The fact that everyone is pointing to that one example instead of a myriad of others is kind of the point.Now, it's true that the medical profession in general has improved, so I would not be shocked if RBs started coming back sooner or looking close to their "original" selves, but I would not draft them as if nothing had happened, and may not want to take that chance at all, given the fact that there are likely more reliable options available.

 

[az_prof]

Lots of good comments in this thread.

Here is my summary of key facts:

1) It usually takes a year, minimum, to return to full ability. Take the time of year their surgery was done, and how close to 12 months of recovery they have had into consideration.

2) Rehab is crucial. I also have had a knee and shoulder reconstruction and can tell you that rehab matters as much as the surgery. I would take into consideration how hard a worker a player is and how dedicated. Rehab is not for the lazy and unmotivated.

3) Partial tear vs. full tear matters.

4) Recovery is easier when you are younger than older.

I wonder also if running style doesn't matter? I suspect that an agility and speed back might lose more than a power back. Gore is a power back. Edge and Jamal Lewis were also power runners. McGahee had crazy agility in college but as a pro he has had to make his money between the hashes more and reinvent his style a bit. From that perspective ADP may fare better than some others as he really is a power back.

There are always exceptions to all these rules. I can remember Robert Smith of the Vikings, who was a speed back, and he came back well after two knee surgeries. I think he did so on a very tight timeline each time too. But those were early in his career too.

 

[Warrior]

Here's one thing you guys are taking for granted. The player doesn't NEED to be the same after the injury as they were before.

JC and Peterson were both top-4 overall fantasy picks prior to the injury. You can get them likely around early round 3 in drafts post-injury.

This "I won't draft them because I doubt they will be as good the first year back" philosophy that many of you seem to have is moot. You're not spending a top-4 pick on them. They are already discounted based on the injury. Common sense says they won't be back to 100% right away. What you guys are missing is that they don't have to be to provide great value.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's one thing you guys are taking for granted. The player doesn't NEED to be the same after the injury as they were before.

JC and Peterson were both top-4 overall fantasy picks prior to the injury. You can get them likely around early round 3 in drafts post-injury.

This "I won't draft them because I doubt they will be as good the first year back" philosophy that many of you seem to have is moot. You're not spending a top-4 pick on them. They are already discounted based on the injury. Common sense says they won't be back to 100% right away. What you guys are missing is that they don't have to be to provide great value.

That's great that you think like that . . . but I suspect there will be one guy in most leagues that will buy into the hype that ADP or Charles is at or near 100% and take them late first or early second. Depending upon how they progress, 3rd round might be worth taking them, but that would depend who else was available across all positions. They may be closer to normal later in the year . . . but if your fantasy team struggles out of the gate it could be too late. Edgerrin James came back to under 1,000 yards rushing and 2 TD. Would that help your team all that much?

 

[cstu]

Lots of good comments in this thread.

Here is my summary of key facts:

1) It usually takes a year, minimum, to return to full ability. Take the time of year their surgery was done, and how close to 12 months of recovery they have had into consideration.

2) Rehab is crucial. I also have had a knee and shoulder reconstruction and can tell you that rehab matters as much as the surgery. I would take into consideration how hard a worker a player is and how dedicated. Rehab is not for the lazy and unmotivated.

3) Partial tear vs. full tear matters.

4) Recovery is easier when you are younger than older.

I wonder also if running style doesn't matter? I suspect that an agility and speed back might lose more than a power back. Gore is a power back. Edge and Jamal Lewis were also power runners. McGahee had crazy agility in college but as a pro he has had to make his money between the hashes more and reinvent his style a bit. From that perspective ADP may fare better than some others as he really is a power back.

There are always exceptions to all these rules. I can remember Robert Smith of the Vikings, who was a speed back, and he came back well after two knee surgeries. I think he did so on a very tight timeline each time too. But those were early in his career too.

Great point about Robert Smith. He tore his ACL week 8 of 1996 but came back to start week 1 (10 month recovery) and had the best season of his career with a 5.5 YPC.A 10 month recovery for Peterson would put him back in late October, possibly the Thursday night game vs. the Bucs in week 8.

 

[Sweet Love]

Here's one thing you guys are taking for granted. The player doesn't NEED to be the same after the injury as they were before.

JC and Peterson were both top-4 overall fantasy picks prior to the injury. You can get them likely around early round 3 in drafts post-injury.

This "I won't draft them because I doubt they will be as good the first year back" philosophy that many of you seem to have is moot. You're not spending a top-4 pick on them. They are already discounted based on the injury. Common sense says they won't be back to 100% right away. What you guys are missing is that they don't have to be to provide great value.

That's great that you think like that . . . but I suspect there will be one guy in most leagues that will buy into the hype that ADP or Charles is at or near 100% and take them late first or early second. Depending upon how they progress, 3rd round might be worth taking them, but that would depend who else was available across all positions. They may be closer to normal later in the year . . . but if your fantasy team struggles out of the gate it could be too late. Edgerrin James came back to under 1,000 yards rushing and 2 TD. Would that help your team all that much?

Not sure about that...I just grabbed ADP at 3.06 in SSL (16 teams), so basically, he went at pick 38 overall. Now the league has rules that favor QBs and TEs more than usual, but he was RB 13 off the board. Still, I look at it as boom or bust, but if the guy can drag his tail on the field in week 1 or 2, I say the floor is 1100 yards, regardless of how "ugly" he gets them.

 

[Thewhiteknuckler]

RB Two Year Rule.

Unfortunately this one hasn't been updated and I think there's better analysis that could be done but it's something.

 

[DoubleG]

RB Two Year Rule.

Unfortunately this one hasn't been updated and I think there's better analysis that could be done but it's something.

I wish they would have included the ages for the players in question as well. If a 29 year-old RB goes down with an ACL tear and comes back when he's 31, many are going to suspect a drop off anyway - due to age as much as injury.I also agree that running style might have some effect.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

IMO that two year stuff is incredibly dated, and the 'study' has all sorts of problems with lumping dissimilar players together.

We just had a 28 year old Welker who's game is all about short area quickness and hard cuts come back from an ACL and MCL in well under a year and a 22 year old Demaryius Thomas get all the way back from an ACHILLES injury in eight months.

For a simple ACL with no complications I'm buying. Especially if it was early in the year and/or the player is young. Charles is both and offers insane value in dynasty right now. Managed to pick up a top-10 RB in a couple leagues where he'd never be available otherwise. I'd do the same with Mendenhall if I didn't already own him in most leagues.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's one thing you guys are taking for granted. The player doesn't NEED to be the same after the injury as they were before.

JC and Peterson were both top-4 overall fantasy picks prior to the injury. You can get them likely around early round 3 in drafts post-injury.

This "I won't draft them because I doubt they will be as good the first year back" philosophy that many of you seem to have is moot. You're not spending a top-4 pick on them. They are already discounted based on the injury. Common sense says they won't be back to 100% right away. What you guys are missing is that they don't have to be to provide great value.

That's great that you think like that . . . but I suspect there will be one guy in most leagues that will buy into the hype that ADP or Charles is at or near 100% and take them late first or early second. Depending upon how they progress, 3rd round might be worth taking them, but that would depend who else was available across all positions. They may be closer to normal later in the year . . . but if your fantasy team struggles out of the gate it could be too late. Edgerrin James came back to under 1,000 yards rushing and 2 TD. Would that help your team all that much?

Not sure about that...I just grabbed ADP at 3.06 in SSL (16 teams), so basically, he went at pick 38 overall. Now the league has rules that favor QBs and TEs more than usual, but he was RB 13 off the board. Still, I look at it as boom or bust, but if the guy can drag his tail on the field in week 1 or 2, I say the floor is 1100 yards, regardless of how "ugly" he gets them.

I was referring more to redraft leagues that draft much closer to the start of the season. Watch . . . there will be stories that ADP is way ahead of schedule or tape of him doing a tire drill and his stock will go up. The usual "he's in the best shape of his life" stuff. It would not surprise me if late August drafts he was going in the late first or early second (which I wouldn't want him near that).

 

[cstu]

IMO that two year stuff is incredibly dated, and the 'study' has all sorts of problems with lumping dissimilar players together.We just had a 28 year old Welker who's game is all about short area quickness and hard cuts come back from an ACL and MCL in well under a year and a 22 year old Demaryius Thomas get all the way back from an ACHILLES injury in eight months.For a simple ACL with no complications I'm buying. Especially if it was early in the year and/or the player is young. Charles is both and offers insane value in dynasty right now. Managed to pick up a top-10 RB in a couple leagues where he'd never be available otherwise. I'd do the same with Mendenhall if I didn't already own him in most leagues.

Welker did come back in 9 months but it was the worst season of his career with the Patriots.Thomas didn't contribute much until December, 10 months after the Achilles.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Welker did come back in 9 months but it was the worst season of his career with the Patriots.Thomas didn't contribute much until December, 10 months after the Achilles.

Good point re: Welker - I didn't realize his #s were that bad. But still... by the second half of the season he looks like he was back in form, which is in line with Thomas's recovery. I really think medical advances have wiped out the two year rule.

 

[strong]

RB Two Year Rule.

Unfortunately this one hasn't been updated and I think there's better analysis that could be done but it's something.

Bump. It looks like they updated this article a week ago. Judging by the five most recent running backs added to the list, the recent results from the small sample aren't promising:

LaMont Jordan

Ronnie Brown

Deuce McAllister

Cadillac Williams

Kevin Smith

But I'm not so sure that Peterson, Charles, and Mendenhall couldn't turn the tide.

 

[Banger]

it looks like the best move may be to let someone else draft them expecting that they'll be slow to come back and then try to trade for them for the stretch run possibly on the cheap.

 

[strong]

it looks like the best move may be to let someone else draft them expecting that they'll be slow to come back and then try to trade for them for the stretch run possibly on the cheap.

Yeah. What surprised me about that list is that many of the older RBs returned the next year and posted similar numbers to their previous injury free season. Curt Warner, Jamal Anderson, Terry Allen, Garrison Hearst, Jamal Lewis and Duece McAllister (2004) all ran for more than 1000 yards their first year back. But of the five recent examples of a "workhorse" RB going down, only Ronnie Brown came close. Granted, Five Players is a very small sample, but considering the advances in surgical techniques and recovery time, I'm a little surprised.

 

[Zeff]

Lots of good comments in this thread.

Here is my summary of key facts:

1) It usually takes a year, minimum, to return to full ability. Take the time of year their surgery was done, and how close to 12 months of recovery they have had into consideration.

2) Rehab is crucial. I also have had a knee and shoulder reconstruction and can tell you that rehab matters as much as the surgery. I would take into consideration how hard a worker a player is and how dedicated. Rehab is not for the lazy and unmotivated.

3) Partial tear vs. full tear matters.

4) Recovery is easier when you are younger than older.

I wonder also if running style doesn't matter? I suspect that an agility and speed back might lose more than a power back. Gore is a power back. Edge and Jamal Lewis were also power runners. McGahee had crazy agility in college but as a pro he has had to make his money between the hashes more and reinvent his style a bit. From that perspective ADP may fare better than some others as he really is a power back.

There are always exceptions to all these rules. I can remember Robert Smith of the Vikings, who was a speed back, and he came back well after two knee surgeries. I think he did so on a very tight timeline each time too. But those were early in his career too.

Great point about Robert Smith. He tore his ACL week 8 of 1996 but came back to start week 1 (10 month recovery) and had the best season of his career with a 5.5 YPC.A 10 month recovery for Peterson would put him back in late October, possibly the Thursday night game vs. the Bucs in week 8.

The line Robert Smith ran behind that year was absolutely incredible.Not to downplay his effort, which was superhuman. But ADP isn't going to have the luxury of waltzing into the defensive backfield on every play before first contact.

 

[baconisgood]

it looks like the best move may be to let someone else draft them expecting that they'll be slow to come back and then try to trade for them for the stretch run possibly on the cheap.

Yeah. What surprised me about that list is that many of the older RBs returned the next year and posted similar numbers to their previous injury free season. Curt Warner, Jamal Anderson, Terry Allen, Garrison Hearst, Jamal Lewis and Duece McAllister (2004) all ran for more than 1000 yards their first year back. But of the five recent examples of a "workhorse" RB going down, only Ronnie Brown came close. Granted, Five Players is a very small sample, but considering the advances in surgical techniques and recovery time, I'm a little surprised.

Because those 5 players weren't really workhorse backs.1. Dominic Rhodes was place holding for Edge, he want to a reserve position when he returned from injury with Edge as the leading rusher2. Lamont Jordan had 1 year as a workhorse back and he average 3.8 y/c- he was a former backup who got a boatload of carries (24 touches a game) for one season. His production had dropped well before the injury(he was now splitting time with Fargas)- getting just 13 touches a game but at the same y/c. When he came back in 2007 he again had the same # of touches/game and yards per touch as he was the year before, and the same yards per touch as his big season. 3. Cadillac Williams tore his other patella the season he got back. The next season he totaled 1,000 rush and receiving yards and had his best y/c since his rookie season. The author forgets about this in his study. 4. Deuce McCallister was 30 when he tried to come back from his 2nd ACL- an age when running back decline is not uncommon as it is. He was already being phased out in favor of Reggie Bush when he was injured in 2007. He averaged 16.3 rushes a game in 2006 but had 10 rushes in each of his first two games in 2007 before getting injured in game 3. Bush had 9 more touches (2 rushes, more receptions) those two games. 5. Kevin Smith- DET drafted Best in the 1st round while Smith was recovering. Hes a decent, but not great, example.In short 3 guys came back from injury to put up good numbers (in the context of their pre injury numbers)- Caddy, Deuce and Brown. Lamont returned to almost exactly the same production that he was enjoying the season that he was injured in, and Rhodes was never taking over for Edge. On the other side Caddy didn't come back well from his first injury and Duece didn't from his second, and Kevin Smith needed another season. Inconclusive at best.