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Running backs - get 'em. Trust me. (1 Viewer)

Judge Smails

Footballguy
Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot. Maybe because it's a 6point TD league for all we've never followed the stud RB theory as closely as some others others. Sure, the top guys always go in round 1 but top QB's get picked up and there is always a big run in rounds 2 and 3 to nab top WR's. You could always find some depth in rounds 3-5 as guys went after other positions.

Not this year.

HUGE run on RB's.

11 of the 12 picks in the first round:

ADP

Martin

Charles

McCoy

Foster

Spiller

Rice

Calvin

Richardson

Lynch

Morris

Forte

I somewhat expected that, but what I didn't expect was the huge run continuing. SJax at 2.03, CJ at 2.04 - and the kicker - GORE at 2.06. That pick really shifted the draft into a frenzy. Ridley then went 2.08 and MJD 2.11. So when Murray went 3.01, Reggie Bush, 3.04, David Wilson 3.05 there was really nothing after that. Lacy went 3.12. D. Richardson went 4.01, McFadden 4.2, Sproles 4.5, Mathews 4.6, L. Miller 4.10, etc. Bernard from Cincy went 5.1!!!

Never seen anything like it in our league. Guys were hoarding 3 in the their first 3 picks. It was like a RB hurricane warning was announced and the owners raided the convenience and hardware stores to stock up on any living, breathing RB.

 
This has happened in every single on of my big money leagues, PPR and standard alike. This is why I couldn't relate with the people who said CJ2K was dropping to the end of the 2nd as I never once saw it happen.

 
Pretty much the same thing in my draft yesterday. People in my league usually jump on QBs earlier than normal, but yesterday RBs were on everyone's shopping list early.

 
Yeah...it can happen in a flash.

Obviously who you play with is a huge factor.

I went into my drafts with the same basic strategy and rankings, and same scoring...in some, which drafted a little earlier, my RB2 is CJ?K or MJD.

But the last two drafts I did, mostly sharks or at least guppies with teeth...I have Giovani Bernard as my RB2. Getting cute and taking somebody else in rounds 2/3 after landing a stud RB in round 1 can leave you with nothing but scraps in an instant.

It's like the closer the season gets the more serious the leagues drafting are and/or the more experienced the managers are, even if just from more mocks or more real drafts this season...the quicker RB's are going.

 
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Same thing happened in my 12 team non-ppr money league. Every season in years past 3 QBs are gone in the first few rounds. i think the first 24 picks were all RB with the exception of Calvin and Dez (maybe Green).

By a lot of teams going RB/RB in the first two rounds, it creates a panic for the remaining teams to reach and grab whatever is left of the RB which leaves some top 20 WR for you to grab in rounds 3-5.

Also, I am already getting trade offers from teams who failed to draft 3-4 quality RBs. No way in hell I'm trading any of them.

 
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OP says there are no guppies in his league, but then acts surprised that the draft played out that way. Don't see how anyone but a guppy would have walked into a draft this season expecting anything except that to happen.

 
OP says there are no guppies in his league, but then acts surprised that the draft played out that way. Don't see how anyone but a guppy would have walked into a draft this season expecting anything except that to happen.
The shark move is to draft RB/RB/RB? Even if you are taking Lacy in the 3rd or Gore at 2.06?

Obviously roster requirements and scoring would help.

 
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OP says there are no guppies in his league, but then acts surprised that the draft played out that way. Don't see how anyone but a guppy would have walked into a draft this season expecting anything except that to happen.
The shark move is to draft RB/RB/RB? Even if you are taking Lacy in the 3rd or Gore at 2.06?

Obviously roster requirements and scoring would help.
Following the herd and drafting a mediocre RB is a guppy move

 
OP says there are no guppies in his league, but then acts surprised that the draft played out that way. Don't see how anyone but a guppy would have walked into a draft this season expecting anything except that to happen.
This is what I was thinking. Everyone in my most competitive league already has the first 12 rounds predicted with 97% accuracy.

 
Who's a mediocre RB? Everyone knew 11 RBs and Calvin were going in round 1, and in his draft, they did.

In rd 2 he said SJax, CJ1.3K, MJD, Ridley, and Gore went. Again, these are all good picks and SHOULD have been expected.

After Murray and David Wilson went early in Rd3 (expected), that leaves about 4 other "starting RBs" remaining for the rest of the draft. Are your surprised that people would reach a little to secure one so they're not ###ed out?

Didn't any of you mock draft this year? Mocks were going the same way and my first draft I did yesterday went the same. I have another one tonight and fully expect it to do the same. And the fact that everyone who has replied to this thread has said, "Mine too," "Mine too," shows that what I said is absolutely true, that ALL drafts this year are going this way and if you didn't walk in expecting it to happen then YOU did not have your finger on the pulse this year.

 
did you take advantage and load up on studs at the other positions?
This.
OP says there are no guppies in his league, but then acts surprised that the draft played out that way. Don't see how anyone but a guppy would have walked into a draft this season expecting anything except that to happen.
This is what I was thinking. Everyone in my most competitive league already has the first 12 rounds predicted with 97% accuracy.
Lol.

I love cruising the pool at this time of year. Some real gems.

 
Who's a mediocre RB? Everyone knew 11 RBs and Calvin were going in round 1, and in his draft, they did.

In rd 2 he said SJax, CJ1.3K, MJD, Ridley, and Gore went. Again, these are all good picks and SHOULD have been expected.

After Murray and David Wilson went early in Rd3 (expected), that leaves about 4 other "starting RBs" remaining for the rest of the draft. Are your surprised that people would reach a little to secure one so they're not ###ed out?

Didn't any of you mock draft this year? Mocks were going the same way and my first draft I did yesterday went the same. I have another one tonight and fully expect it to do the same. And the fact that everyone who has replied to this thread has said, "Mine too," "Mine too," shows that what I said is absolutely true, that ALL drafts this year are going this way and if you didn't walk in expecting it to happen then YOU did not have your finger on the pulse this year.
Agreed, if you did your homework you were prepared for this and took advantage.

There are three types of people in the word. Those that make it happen, those that wait for things to happen, and those who say "what the f... just happened?" Don't be the latter.

 
I'd rather be skimming the cream off the top of the other positions than scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB. (ppr though)

 
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There is good reasoning this year as opposed to last year. There are not nearly as many incoming injuries to RB as last. There's less questions on who the starter is as last year as well.

Just off the top of my head here

Martin is definitely a first rounder, but was a 3rd last year

Bush is a second rounder, 3rd/4th last year.

Lacy is new, 3rd rounder or so taking over for Starks in like the 5th.

I don't remember where Ridley went last year but he's a second rounder this year.

Charles/AP went from second round to top 3.

Alfred Morris was a WW back if you drafted very early in the preseason.

Spiller was a 4th/5th rounder who took over for a 2nd/3rd rounder Fred Jackson

Last year Matthews and DMac disappointed from the first/second rounds depending where they went in drafts and MJD/McCoy got hurt as well. But there's just more received certainty this year than a lot of years that I've seen. Whereas I could pass on McFadden last year (outside of best ball leagues) because he always gets injured, this year you don't have those kinds of questions entering the year. There's no AP discount coming back from ACL etc etc.

I fully expect anyone who tries to upside down draft this year fails miserably. You really need at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds and get your second by the end of the 4th IMO. Anyone taking Graham at his normal position is probably going to fail as well unless they really hit on later RB like Matthews or DWill. This is not the year to get cute in your draft IMO.

 
I'd rather be skimming the cream off the top of the other positions than scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB. (ppr though)
OP says there are no guppies in his league, but then acts surprised that the draft played out that way. Don't see how anyone but a guppy would have walked into a draft this season expecting anything except that to happen.
The shark move is to draft RB/RB/RB? Even if you are taking Lacy in the 3rd or Gore at 2.06?

Obviously roster requirements and scoring would help.
Following the herd and drafting a mediocre RB is a guppy move
I subscribe to this theory.

Which is how I ended up with Gio Bernard as my RB2 in a couple of leagues. I picked elsewhere while everybody else was doing nothing but drafting RB's. Gotta take that first round stud still, though.

 
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Something similar happened in my draft over the weekend, 10 team, 0.5 ppr, 6 pt tds.

Mad rush for RBs in first 2 rounds, then in the 3rd and 4th, everything went haywire, like nothing I had seen during any mock draft, and I must have done at least 50. Needles to say, I was very happy to pick up Ridley in the 4th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fh1is6u8arhmdan/photo.PNG

 
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Picking from the 12 spot on Saturday, I took Forte and AJ Green at 1/2.

By the time I got to the 3/4 turn my RB choices were: Miller, Wilson, Lacy Bernard, Richardson, Mathews, Ivory, DWill

I took Miller and Roddy White at the 3/4. the rest of the above RB were gone by the Time I got to 5/6.

At 5/6 I passed on: Bell, Mendehall, Vereen, Brown, and Sproles. (I took Matt Ryan and Torry Smith)

I did take Sproles at the 7/8 turn

 
You really need at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds and get your second by the end of the 4th IMO. Anyone taking Graham at his normal position is probably going to fail as well unless they really hit on later RB like Matthews or DWill. This is not the year to get cute in your draft IMO.
I think everyone agrees with your first statement re: benchmarks for numbers of RBs drafted by rounds two and four. I couldn't disagree more about your thoughts on Graham owners though.

Drafting Graham is the equivalent of getting a stud WR1. Pair him with a stud RB1, Rd 3 RB2, Rd 4 low end WR1, upside RB2/3 in the 5th, and a mix of 3 solid/upside/value WEs, and one has a recipe for success this year.

The key is letting the QB depth and value fall to you, punting WR for awhile, and getting lucky with / well projecting one or two of your mid to late round receivers. As previously discussed in other threads, Graham's VBD numbers are too strong to ignore and well justify the risk elsewhere on a roster.

The % ownership on playoff rosters will tell the true story, but my money is on Graham owners.

 
These anecdotal threads and posts are worthless without disclosure of starting lineup requirements and scoring systems, in addition to the number of teams. Those variables make all the difference in the world as to whether a run on RBs is justified and whether or not you have a shot to combat it by zagging.

I'm not saying that to criticize any posters, but rather to promote full disclosure so that these anecdotes can be better utilized.

 
Something similar happened in my draft over the weekend, 10 team, 0.5 ppr, 6 pt tds.

Mad rush for RBs in first 2 rounds, then in the 3rd and 4th, everything went haywire, like nothing I had seen during any mock draft, and I must have done at least 50. Needles to say, I was very happy to pick up Ridley in the 4th.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fh1is6u8arhmdan/photo.PNG
The guy at 10 who took calvin Graham has a pretty sweet team. If Gore stays healthy he is going to be hard to beat.

 
did you take advantage and load up on studs at the other positions?
Lol, I would love to see an upside down draft this year, because the middle round RBs are absolutely atrocious and the middle round WRs are amazing value.

Just dumb to zig when everyone else zags this year. If you play with even 6 other competent people your draft will be sunk.

 
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You really need at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds and get your second by the end of the 4th IMO. Anyone taking Graham at his normal position is probably going to fail as well unless they really hit on later RB like Matthews or DWill. This is not the year to get cute in your draft IMO.
I think everyone agrees with your first statement re: benchmarks for numbers of RBs drafted by rounds two and four. I couldn't disagree more about your thoughts on Graham owners though.

Drafting Graham is the equivalent of getting a stud WR1. Pair him with a stud RB1, Rd 3 RB2, Rd 4 low end WR1, upside RB2/3 in the 5th, and a mix of 3 solid/upside/value WEs, and one has a recipe for success this year.

The key is letting the QB depth and value fall to you, punting WR for awhile, and getting lucky with / well projecting one or two of your mid to late round receivers. As previously discussed in other threads, Graham's VBD numbers are too strong to ignore and well justify the risk elsewhere on a roster.

The % ownership on playoff rosters will tell the true story, but my money is on Graham owners.
I am slowly coming around to drafting Graham but, everyone else is also letting the QB depth fall to them and punting WR if they are loading up on RB, so how do you gain an advantage?

 
You really need at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds and get your second by the end of the 4th IMO. Anyone taking Graham at his normal position is probably going to fail as well unless they really hit on later RB like Matthews or DWill. This is not the year to get cute in your draft IMO.
I think everyone agrees with your first statement re: benchmarks for numbers of RBs drafted by rounds two and four. I couldn't disagree more about your thoughts on Graham owners though.Drafting Graham is the equivalent of getting a stud WR1. Pair him with a stud RB1, Rd 3 RB2, Rd 4 low end WR1, upside RB2/3 in the 5th, and a mix of 3 solid/upside/value WEs, and one has a recipe for success this year.

The key is letting the QB depth and value fall to you, punting WR for awhile, and getting lucky with / well projecting one or two of your mid to late round receivers. As previously discussed in other threads, Graham's VBD numbers are too strong to ignore and well justify the risk elsewhere on a roster.

The % ownership on playoff rosters will tell the true story, but my money is on Graham owners.
I have no idea who you're getting Graham paired with in your scenario. Graham has been going Late 1st/early second in most non ESPN/Yahoo 12 team leagues. You're not pairing him with an elite RB. You're likely pairing him with a low end RB1, or high end RB2.

The RB2 you are getting at the end if the third is someone like Lacy. The WR you are getting is a high end WR2.

VBD wise, sure Graham makes sense. Logically, unless its FFPC rules, not so much. basically, you're hinging your draft on Jimmy Graham because you give up points at every single other position to get him. If he goes down, you're basically screwed.

This is different than with any other position. Your not grabbing anyone likely to replace Graham points wise anywhere in the draft and if you do (read: Gronk) you really mess up every other position even worse. If Graham misses time you very likely lose.

The same can be said for any player, but good/serviceable RB/WR enter the league all the time. You can still compete if Calvin misses time, or McCoy. Waivers work better on WR/RB. It doesn't really work in competative leagues with TE.

You can win with Graham as your first pick, sure. But it's all in. I'd actually rather go Graham/Brees or Graham/Dez than Graham/RB. At least you will be ahead in 2 positions when you go all in like that. It's just not really safe outside of 1.5 PPR TE leagues IMO.

 
I'd rather be skimming the cream off the top of the other positions than scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB. (ppr though)
How would you not end up scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB in the above scenario?
I mean during the huge run on RBs. Of course, you will end up with bottom-of-the-barrel RBs, but that is after you have skimmed the cream off the top of the other positions.

IMO this is at the heart of VBD...is it not?

In a ppr, I would be fine to start RB 32 and RB 36 if it meant I was starting QB5, WR1, WR3, WR9, TE2.

Round 1: WR1 Calvin

Round 2: WR3 AJ Green

Round 3: WR9 Cobb (or whoever you rank higher due to his injury)

Round 4: TE2 Gronk or Witten (depending on how you feel about Gronk's injury)

Round 5: QB5 Ryan or Brady if he falls (or someone like RG3 if you think he is the one)

Round 6: best remaining RB

Round 7: best remaining RB

Full disclosure though: I play in a 12 team ppr start 2RB, 3WR. If there is any opportunity to start 3RB e.g., through flex, then that changes the vbd numbers accordingly and I would take at least 1 RB earlier.

 
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did you take advantage and load up on studs at the other positions?
Did the best I could from the 11 hole. We start 3 WR's (no TE mandatory). No PPR but 5 point bonus for over 100 yards so they are important. Went Morris at 11, then AJ Green, then Victor Cruz, then had to settle for McFadden as RB2, then Stafford, Antonio Brown (I like him a lot). Solid late with Houston and Cincy D's and Dawson as my kicker. In between I loaded up on upside guys. Andre Brown, Bryce Brown and Knowshon Moreno hoping to hit the lottery, Justin Blackmon for post suspension. Like my team but hate having RB's on bad teams. Felt like sold my soul with McFadden but in the 4th round not terrible.

 
I'd rather be skimming the cream off the top of the other positions than scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB. (ppr though)
How would you not end up scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB in the above scenario?
I mean during the huge run on RBs. Of course, you will end up with bottom-of-the-barrel RBs, but that is after you have skimmed the cream off the top of the other positions.

IMO this is at the heart of VBD...is it not?

In a ppr, I would be fine to start RB 32 and RB 36 if it meant I was starting QB5, WR1, WR3, WR9, TE2.

Round 1: WR1 Calvin

Round 2: WR3 AJ Green

Round 3: WR9 Cobb (or whoever you rank higher due to his injury)

Round 4: TE2 Gronk or Witten (depending on how you feel about Gronk's injury)

Round 5: QB5 Ryan or Brady if he falls (or someone like RG3 if you think he is the one)

Round 6: best remaining RB

Round 7: best remaining RB

Full disclosure though: I play in a 12 team ppr start 2RB, 3WR. If there is any opportunity to start 3RB e.g., through flex, then that changes the vbd numbers accordingly and I would take at least 1 RB earlier.
In that scenario, there is a fair chance that the 2 RBs you are starting would not even be starters on their teams. I get what you are saying, but it just seems super risky.

 
Same thing happened in my draft too. League usually has some real head scratchers (Greg Jennings went #7 overall last year).

I had the #12 out of 14 teams and went Alfred Morris. Then went Julio. Running Backs then just went hot and heavy. Ended up drafting Newton and Gronk because that is where the value was. Got Mcfadden as my #2 RB.

Don't draft RB just because. Draft where the value is (to a point obviously). I usually never draft good QB or TE, but that is where the value was so I went for it.

 
I'd rather be skimming the cream off the top of the other positions than scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB. (ppr though)
How would you not end up scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB in the above scenario?
I mean during the huge run on RBs. Of course, you will end up with bottom-of-the-barrel RBs, but that is after you have skimmed the cream off the top of the other positions.

IMO this is at the heart of VBD...is it not?

In a ppr, I would be fine to start RB 32 and RB 36 if it meant I was starting QB5, WR1, WR3, WR9, TE2.

Round 1: WR1 Calvin

Round 2: WR3 AJ Green

Round 3: WR9 Cobb (or whoever you rank higher due to his injury)

Round 4: TE2 Gronk or Witten (depending on how you feel about Gronk's injury)

Round 5: QB5 Ryan or Brady if he falls (or someone like RG3 if you think he is the one)

Round 6: best remaining RB

Round 7: best remaining RB

Full disclosure though: I play in a 12 team ppr start 2RB, 3WR. If there is any opportunity to start 3RB e.g., through flex, then that changes the vbd numbers accordingly and I would take at least 1 RB earlier.
In that scenario, there is a fair chance that the 2 RBs you are starting would not even be starters on their teams. I get what you are saying, but it just seems super risky.
This is using PPR ADP data from fantasypros (consensus ADP data from 4 sites), updated today:

If you are drafting in the top 6, you could acquire:

Round 1: WR1, Calvin

Round 2: WR6, Demaryius

Round 3: WR9, Roddy

Round 4: TE3, Witten

***Round 5: I've been seeing Ryan or Brady falling here, but according to the data, they'd be gone. So, you'd be left with QB7 or 8 (Kaep or Stafford), or, you'd be left with Ball or Bernard (or later) at RB, with a chance that Mathews could fall (but would not be there according to the data). If no one falls, I agree that I like the WRs better here***

Round 6: RB30, Ivory or RB32 Mendenhall (Bell is RB31, injured)

Round 7: RB34, BGE or RB33, A. Brown (not high on him myself)

Round 8: RB38, Hillman or RB37, Tate -- or Dwyer who recently popped up into this range

As a result of the chasing of RBs, I typically have a top 6 QB drop to me in round 5. If it goes to the data though then it would be better to only take 2 WRs and the 3rd in round 5.

While the RBs do look grim in rounds 6-8, the advantage gained in the first 5 rounds is significantly more than what you would obtain if you chase the teens and 20s RBs.

Again, this only holds true where you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs. I would be comfortable with Mendenhall, BGE, and Hillman or Dwyer as a spot starter.

If you draft in the back half of the 1st round, you could acquire:

Round 1: WR2, Dez

Round 2: WR4, Marshall

Round 3: WR11, Cruz

Round 4: TE2, Gronk

Round 5: QB7/8, Kaep/Stafford -- again, if a QB didn't fall, I wouldn't take these guys here, I would be looking for Ryan ideally.

Round 6: RB29, DRich

Round 7: RB34, BGE

Round 8: Hillman/Tate/Dwyer

Same scenario, although I like this one better, assuming a top 6 QB drops in the 5th round. Improvements: I like Gronk > Witten ppg once Gronk is back and I am bullish on DRich this year. Upside down drafting though has historically been more often recommended when drafting in the back half of the 1st round.

If I draft top 4, I will take a stud RB but, otherwise, I'm taking a long hard look at Calvin or Dez.

 
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bah. Just finished a draft - 10 teams, ppr for TE and WR, start 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex (RB, WR, or TE), 3 IDP. Took my first RB in the 3rd, second in the 5th. The fact that I only need to start 1 RB gave me the freedom to zig when everyone else zags, so of course it's line-up dependent. I went WR/TE and was still able to pick up Chris Johnson in the 3rd, Miller in the 5th, Bernard in the 6th, and still find RB depth deeper in the draft. I'm a little weak @ QB - I was the last one to take one, but I feel good about this over all.


drafting out of the #4 spot:

1.04 Johnson, Calvin DET WR
2.07 Graham, Jimmy NOS TE
3.04 Johnson, Chris TEN RB
4.07 White, Roddy ATL WR
5.04 Miller, Lamar MIA RB
6.07 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
7.04 Decker, Eric DEN WR
8.07 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR
9.04 Andrew Luck IND QB
10.07 Kuechly, Luke CAR LB
11.04 Tate, Ben HOU RB
12.07 Ingram, Mark NOS RB
13.04 Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB
14.07 Josh Freeman TB QB
15.04 Lofton, Curtis NOS LB
16.07 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
17.04 Thomas, Julius DEN TE
18.07 Giants, New York NYG TMPK

eta: full disclosure: there were some guppies drafting in this league, specifically in 1-3 spots. I mean, they have been in the league for a decade, but still haven't quite figured out how fantasy football works. Aaron Rodgers went at 1.03, Brees @ 2.10, Brady @ 3.02. I think they were still in shell-shock after last years QB-heavy draft.
 
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12 team redraft, non PPR. All TD's 6 points. Standard scoring otherwise except for 5 point bonuses for 100/300 yards. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR/TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 Defense.

I wanted Forte or Dez Bryant. Both went to the owner at 12. Forte was my cutoff at RB for the 14th pick. Personally, I wasn't going to draft SJax or CJ2K that early, but that's just me. It was Forte, Bryant or AJ Green there. Was hoping Gore would last. So went with a pan B.

 
IMO this is at the heart of VBD...is it not?

Round 1: WR1 Calvin

Round 2: WR3 AJ Green

Round 3: WR9 Cobb (or whoever you rank higher due to his injury)

Round 4: TE2 Gronk or Witten (depending on how you feel about Gronk's injury)

Round 5: QB5 Ryan or Brady if he falls (or someone like RG3 if you think he is the one)

Round 6: best remaining RB

Round 7: best remaining RB
It's only the heart of VBD if your advantage at WR/QB ends up exceeding your detriment at RB. I too had an early RB grab in my league and - assuming you could even get both Calvin/Green at your slot, which you could not do in my draft since they went 1.5/2.4 - the types of RB's you'd have drafted waiting for round 6 in my draft were Mendenhall (6th - pre injury), D.Richardson (7th), Ivory (7th), Ingram (7th), Ballard (7th), BJGE (7th), A.Brown (7th)... basically the guys you are hoping and praying are still starting RBs in week 3, and who may well get snapped up as someone else's RB3-4 before your pick. Compare that to the WR2-WR3 the RB-grabbers could get in the 5th (Bowe, T.Smith, J.Jones, D.Jackson, J.Nelson), and the types of QBs going to those who waited until the 8th-9th (Romo, E.Manning, Roethisberger, Vick), I don't see how you could realistically expect your advantage at WR/QB to make up for starting Ivory/Ingram vs. a team that went RB/RB/WR/WR, or RB/WR/RB/WR... much less over the course of a 16 week season when those RB situations reek of RBBC risk.

I elected to go RB/WR/RB/RB/WR from 1.11 and still landed QBs RGIII(6th)/Palmer(11th), and Rudolph (7th) at TE. Could have (and should have) paired RGIII with Romo (went 8.3), but probably messed up reaching for Josh Gordon at 8.2 with WR3s flying off the board.

 
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IMO this is at the heart of VBD...is it not?

Round 1: WR1 Calvin

Round 2: WR3 AJ Green

Round 3: WR9 Cobb (or whoever you rank higher due to his injury)

Round 4: TE2 Gronk or Witten (depending on how you feel about Gronk's injury)

Round 5: QB5 Ryan or Brady if he falls (or someone like RG3 if you think he is the one)

Round 6: best remaining RB

Round 7: best remaining RB
It's only the heart of VBD if your advantage at WR/QB ends up exceeding your detriment at RB. I too had an early RB grab in my league and - assuming you could even get both Calvin/Green at your slot, which you could not do in my draft since they went 1.5/2.4 - the types of RB's you'd have drafted waiting for round 6 in my draft were Mendenhall (6th - pre injury), D.Richardson (7th), Ivory (7th), Ingram (7th), Ballard (7th), BJGE (7th), A.Brown (7th)... basically the guys you are hoping and praying are still starting RBs in week 3, and who may well get snapped up as someone else's RB3-4 before your pick. Compare that to the WR2-WR3 the RB-grabbers could get in the 5th (Bowe, T.Smith, J.Jones, D.Jackson, J.Nelson), and the types of QBs going to those who waited until the 8th-9th (Romo, E.Manning, Roethisberger, Vick), I don't see how you could realistically expect your advantage at WR/QB to make up for starting Ivory/Ingram vs. a team that went RB/RB/WR/WR, or RB/WR/RB/WR... much less over the course of a 16 week season when those RB situations reek of RBBC risk.

I elected to go RB/WR/RB/RB/WR from 1.11 and still landed QBs RGIII(6th)/Palmer(10th), and Rudolph (7th) at TE. Could have (and should have) paired RGIII with Romo (went 8.3), but probably messed up reaching for Josh Gordon at 8.2 with WR3s flying off the board.
This is essentially my sentiments exactly, thanks for typing it out and saving me the trouble haha. As many have said, WR is very deep this year. The comparable WRs you could be drafting in the 6th/7th simply hold more value than their RB counterparts. Same goes for QBs.

I don't like the idea of being in spots 1.01-1.03 and there being a serious run on RBs leaving nothing but crap for me at the tail end of the 2nd. In that case, I'd consider slightly reaching for someone like Murray just to solidify the scarcest position in fantasy football.

 
did you take advantage and load up on studs at the other positions?
Lol, I would love to see an upside down draft this year, because the middle round RBs are absolutely atrocious and the middle round WRs are amazing value.

Just dumb to zig when everyone else zags this year. If you play with even 6 other competent people your draft will be sunk.
With the Bell injury and Lacy quelling doubters, and Bernard/Vereen skyrocketing, it's no longer possible, but I was able to do Calvin/Dez/DWilson/Lacy/Vereen/Bernard/Bradshaw/Romo/Mi.Floyd 4-6 weeks back. (12 team standard PPR, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex).

Pros & Joes draft from 6-8 weeks ago, Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex (1 flex can be a QB), I went Calvin/Dez/DThomas/VJax/Eli/Bernard/Ivory/Freeman; RBs rounded out with Powell/PThomas/Bryce Brown. Not a strategy I'd recommend to the faint of heart, but it'll be fun to watch this team this year.

 
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did you take advantage and load up on studs at the other positions?
Lol, I would love to see an upside down draft this year, because the middle round RBs are absolutely atrocious and the middle round WRs are amazing value.Just dumb to zig when everyone else zags this year. If you play with even 6 other competent people your draft will be sunk.
With the Bell injury and Lacy quelling doubters, and Bernard/Vereen skyrocketing, it's no longer possible, but I was able to do Calvin/Dez/DWilson/Lacy/Vereen/Bernard/Bradshaw/Romo/Mi.Floyd 4-6 weeks back. (12 team standard PPR, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex).
Bernard/Vereen "skyrocketing"? Lets not get carried away.
 
did you take advantage and load up on studs at the other positions?
Lol, I would love to see an upside down draft this year, because the middle round RBs are absolutely atrocious and the middle round WRs are amazing value.Just dumb to zig when everyone else zags this year. If you play with even 6 other competent people your draft will be sunk.
With the Bell injury and Lacy quelling doubters, and Bernard/Vereen skyrocketing, it's no longer possible, but I was able to do Calvin/Dez/DWilson/Lacy/Vereen/Bernard/Bradshaw/Romo/Mi.Floyd 4-6 weeks back. (12 team standard PPR, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex).
Bernard/Vereen "skyrocketing"? Lets not get carried away.
From what I've seen, they're not skyrocketing but have crept up steadily since the beginning of the preseason. I'm curious, why were you so surprised to see Gio go at 5.01? That's essentially his ADP. Comparatively, DRich going at 4.01 is much more surprising.

 
RBs are very important but I think some people are getting carried away. I see RBs in these tiers

AP

Rice, McCoy, Charles, Foster,Richardson, Lynch, Martin, Morris

Forte, SJax, MJD, CJ

Ridley, Bush, Gore

After that, I believe you are taking a major gamble on any RB. You must get 1 of these RBs and if you can, get 2. However, once they are gone, I wouldn't reach for a Murray,Miller or Wilson. I would rather have a sure thing at another spot.

Looking at ADP for the Murray, Miller, Wilson type back and they are all in the same neighborhood as Brady,Manning, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Gronk, and Colston. Give me the Manning slam dunk over the David Wilson 3 pointer.

 
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I just ran some rough analyses. I used the stats from my league for last year to determine vbd #s for position not player (i.e., RB1, RB2, etc., WR1, WR2, etc.). Of course, things could change this year, but looking at the averages from the last 2 years, it does not change things all that much, so for a rough analysis, I think this is ok as a guesstimate.

Then I used the consensus ADP results that I mentioned above and cross-referenced against the vbd #s I generated. Keep in mind I am working off of PPR and start 2RB and 3WR.

Since 6 of the 12 teams make the playoffs, I used median starter as a vbd baseline (i.e., QB6, RB12, WR18, TE6, DST6, K6).

Then I ran 3 scenarios: Start WR, WR, RB; Start RB, RB, WR; Start WR, WR, WR. There was some variation after that, depending on whether RB or WR would need to be filled, but I then went Gronk for TE in the 4th and Stafford for QB in the 6th for all 3 scenarios (i.e., so TE and QB are held constant, as was SF Def and Gostkowski K).

Results (only looking at ppg advantage for starters, not backups):

Scenario 1 (WR, WR, RB): 7.4 ppg advantage

Scenario 2 (RB, RB, WR): 6.9 ppg advantage

So, those two are within spitting distance of each other.

But...

Scenario 3 (WR, WR, WR): 10.2 ppg advantage

:shrug:

 
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Who's a mediocre RB? Everyone knew 11 RBs and Calvin were going in round 1, and in his draft, they did.

In rd 2 he said SJax, CJ1.3K, MJD, Ridley, and Gore went. Again, these are all good picks and SHOULD have been expected.

After Murray and David Wilson went early in Rd3 (expected), that leaves about 4 other "starting RBs" remaining for the rest of the draft. Are your surprised that people would reach a little to secure one so they're not ###ed out?

Didn't any of you mock draft this year? Mocks were going the same way and my first draft I did yesterday went the same. I have another one tonight and fully expect it to do the same. And the fact that everyone who has replied to this thread has said, "Mine too," "Mine too," shows that what I said is absolutely true, that ALL drafts this year are going this way and if you didn't walk in expecting it to happen then YOU did not have your finger on the pulse this year.
I will go into my draft expecting it to go very similarly. But I also see that trend as giving me an opportunity to take advantage of it. Just because I see the trend going that way doesn't mean I need to be part of the trend.

 
Exactly. I only pray that the other 11 owners in my drafts have the OP's mentality. Easy pickens!

 
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I'd rather be skimming the cream off the top of the other positions than scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB. (ppr though)
How would you not end up scraping the bottom of the barrel at RB in the above scenario?
I think his point (or at least it's my point and I'm willing to project it onto his statement) is that if you are condemned to scrape for RBs either way, why not get slightly worse scrapings but some really tasty gravy?

 

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