What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Running Backs to Exploit and Avoid for 2022 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I took these straight off a very popular free site of “Pros” and it’s not where I necessarily think they will line up at the end of 2022. I think Tier 1 and Tier 2 are capable of being shuffled a little bit and certainly some that are in Tier 3 have the resume to move up.

MoP doesn’t compete in Dynasty, strictly Redraft and a few 2-3 man keeper leagues but that is different than drafting rookies every year in May. I don’t write this to insult the guy you took at the 1.03 overall in your Rookie Drafts, this is strictly for redraft purposes so take it easy. Because if MoP drafted according to what many of you post based on your long term Dynasty POV, I would go broke.

That said, I have some pretty nice keeper teams because of the Shark Pool with players like Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase(easier to keep WRs vs RBs), I would not have necessarily drafted those guys as keepers their rookie years if it hadn’t been for some of the great contributors in here so please understand I also write this out of respect for the many great things you all bring to my attention.
 
Last edited:

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
C.McCaffrey- Christian will enter YEAR 6 of his NFL career(2017 Class has a bunch) and many felt after his 3rd season that we had found a future HoF RB in the same production of guys we don’t see as often. RBs where the entire offense funnels thru them including pass plays. 350 and then 400+ touches his 2nd and 3rd season gave way to a very empty Season 4 and Season 5 last year. And yet there seems to be no discount in obtaining McCaffrey and for those reasons I find his ADP right now to be a smidge high if you take a step back and look at the entire board. He offers great rewards but there seems to be a lot of downside with the Carolina Offense and he might not see chunks of yards in the way he has previously in his career. Plus, he has a mounting medical chart that rivals Dalton from Roadhouse. He is hard to take off the field when healthy and Carolina has not invested in a quality back up or someone that can push or take touches from a healthy Christian McCaffrey.

J.Taylor- 268 touches as a Rookie turned into 372 touches his 2nd Season and let that be a guiding light to what some 2nd Year RBs later in this Draft might be able to piece together if they also see an increase in their touches from Year 1 to Year 2.

3,639 yds from scrimmage, 32 TDs, 76 receptions and many feel Matt Ryan will be a steadier hand at QB than Wentz was in 2021. He seems like a no brainer to take #1 Overall unless his number of touches scares you but he is still just 23 yrs old and 332 carries is about 20 per game in a 17 game season where he started every week. Can’t ask for a lot more.
 
Last edited:

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
A.Ekeler-I’m surprised he is this high, the #3 in Tier 1, I would have him a few slots after this in Tier 2. Year 6 in the NFL and until last season he was a low volume RB. 106-132-116 carries and then last season he went over 200+ carries and it felt like he was on the injury report often but maybe my memory is a little wacky. 92-54(10 games) and last season another 70 catches is what gets your attention and even with some nice weapons at WR, the Chargers can use Herbert to exploit the RBs which Ekeler can feast on a steady of diet of screens and short passes underneath. 224-170-276 touches the last 3 seasons, seems like something in the 300-350 range is very optimistic at this point.

Seems like folks are at least discussing Ekeler at about #3 spot in the Draft as I assume both Taylor and McCaff come off the board quickly.

-And that concludes "Tier 1"
Like I said there is a lot of crossover from Tier 1 to Tier 2, not sure there is as big a difference as some sites are implying.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
D.Cook-Leads off Tier 2 if you surf a lot of the websites and I have always been a huge fan of Cook even though he misses time including as I recall quite a bit of his rookie season. The talent and tenacity he displays running the football is near the top of the NFL. 14-13-13 the last 3 seasons for Games Started so with a 17 game schedule now you are going to miss about 25% of the season and that can be very costly and dangerous. Most who draft Cook are in the habit at this point picking up his back up. Is that Mattison or the Rookie Ty Chandler who I think eventually could unseat Cook or be part of a 2-Back system and they would not be as reliant on Cook. Have no delusions though, when the Vikes are rolling on offense, Cook is getting chunks of yards and chews up the clock. They have a lot invested in Cook and as long as he is healthy they will want to use him a lot. I can see them trying to keep Cook’s touches within reasonable range but what that number is exactly is anyone’s guess. 303-356-283 for touches the last 3 seasons. Cook offers proven productivity, very little mystery when he starts what the outcome looks like.

Actually last season he did have a big dip in his TDs and that is some cause for concern, also a dip in his total yds. 1654-1918 and then 1383 was not what folks drafted him for. His TDs dipped from 17 in 2021 to 6 last year and that is what the Touchdowns can do to your projections so be careful on RBs that make their living with touchdown plunges. Cook is not like that but last season even accounting for his injuries it was not as productive as previous seasons. He has a lot more wear and tear than some of the others around here.
 
Last edited:

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
N.Harris-And now it is time to spotlight the guy I think you should focus on after Taylor comes off the board. We can discuss anything you want with Harris, it seemed like he hit a wall at times last year but despite any negative or critical comments, 381 touches, 70 receptions, I can see him taking a dip in catches to something more normal like 40-50 but he could go over 60 easily with 17 games and the Steelers likely to be on the cusp of the Playoffs or a Wildcard team, there’s talent and they are not rebuilding right now. You’re not going to read from many folks to take Najee Harris but I would steer clear of media and press clippings and rogue posters like me(haha) and take a RB that is young and hungry, maybe he tops out at 350 touches this season but I’ll take it since I see that more as a floor than his ceiling.

Ancient FF Proverb says…”You can’t win your League in the 1st Rd but you can lose it by taking the wrong guy” and that usually eludes more to catastrophic injury but it also means that just a 10-20% drop or increase in touches and production by many if not most of these RBs(because none of us truly know) and the belly aching in the Shark pool begins.

Bottom Line: A Safe pick IMHO if you are in that 2-6 range of the 1st round and kicking around the names I just mentioned. Is Harris value at this spot? I think he offers very little risk outside of injury like any other player we talk about. It’s possible he improves in his 2nd Season.
 
Last edited:

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
D.Henry-Last season was a big disappointment for Henry, those who drafted him and of course the Titans in general did not achieve what they did the season prior and now have a potential QB controversy brewing on the horizon. If you believe Henry will be upright and if you think like most RBs, all of them spend some part of at least 1-2 seasons battling injuries and disappointing early 1st Rd Drafters. You know what you are getting with him but he also will not have as many weapons at WR stretching the field. I like Henry and am happy he isn’t going #1 Overall any more. I’m not itching to draft him but short of injury he is still running strong. He turns 29 in January so he will be living his 30th Year when he takes hand offs in 2023 if you need to be scared of how age impacts RBs.

D.Swift-My concern is when I hear his coaches talk about the difference between pain and injuries. Makes me question his ability to push thru the next level but that said I see good things for him this season. The OL should be improved and one of the better units in the NFL quite “Frank”ly. He has 107 receptions and they still are not world beaters at WR so he should be targeted by Goff a lot…again…in 2022. 160-213 touches his 1st 2 seasons and technically only started 8 games in 2 seasons, active 26 out of a possible 34 which isn’t all that good. Spends a lot of time on the Injury Report. Has 17 TDs and is a Lions RB so try and focus on the good here. I believe in the coaching staff even though they are a little old school and prone to running the Oklahoma Drill when it pleases the Head Coach.

Swift is a slight leap of faith in the early part of the Draft and his touches must increase to something in the 275+ range for him to be even close to a 1st Rd grade which is about what he is receiving. And at that price point he is a little expensive like a fancy sports car. There are others in this range that will offer more reliability but if Swift hits like many predict, he could easily vault North of 300+ touches which is about where he is being ranked right now.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Joe Mixon-On the other hand, instead of Swift and a Lions team that will be improved but nowhere near the type of Offense that Mixon plods thru with Joe Burrow, Chase and Higgins, there is no reason Mixon shouldn’t have 75-100 yds a week and a TD which is about what he did last year. I’ll cut to the Chase with Mixon, not a big fan of his talent but he is surrounded by better talent and in no danger of losing his starting spot right now. 2018-1,464 yds, 2019-1,424 yds, 2020-injuries skip it, 2021-1,519 yds…the big surge was TDs where he jumped from about 8 to 16 and again you have a passing game that throws for the end zone a lot and draw Pass Interference calls setting things up on the 1-2 yd line many times so he is going to get a lot of chances to plunge into the end zone. 20-25 TDs is not that unreasonable if you believe in the Offense and the improved OL.

At the same time…4.5 yds per touch in 2019 and 2021 are on the smaller side for guys that 280-313-334 touches like he did in ’18-’19 and ’21.

MoP speaking to you like a Dad(suspension of disbelief)-Trust your ability to find gems later in the draft with less risk. Mixon might not hit the Top 5 as easy as I believe he could but it’s unlikely he will dip below the 7-10 range if things are similar to last season and I would argue the Offense should be better and much more ferocious in their attack approach since they know who they are and know what they are capable of with Joe and the Air Corps there in Cincinatti. Don’t overthink it and Mixon is not sexy but he will produce as any RB would who is lead RB in this Offense.

Saquon Barkley-I don’t have a rosy outlook here other than Barkley is still one of the more talented big RBs in the NFL and his rookie season will always stand out. We are now entering Year 5 and the last 2-3 seasons have been rough due to injuries and one has to wonder at this point exactly what Saquon Barkley is taking the field and what are we working with here? Too many safer options IMO to get worked up or make this selection pull your hair out around the 1-2 turn or Mid second, a lot of sure fire WRs you have to pass on in order to take Barkley. This Offense is not a Top 20 Offense right now, still has OL issues, Saquon is best served with a change of scenery and a pitch count of maybe 15-18 touches a game in a high powered offense and see what he can do. That’s not the reality of the situation right now. Love this guy but pretty much a hard pass for MoP but I wish him and anyone who drafts him the best of luck this season.

That was the top 2 Tiers on a prominent free site, thankfully not many of you pin your hopes to what is posted there. You likely have way better information thru FBG and some of the individual writers you have grown to read and love from the internet over the year whichever site they might be.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
MoP Madness: I need to be honest about how I arrive at some of my opinions and that is all they are, I’m not special or smarter than Vegas for example. What I have done in the last 5-10 years that has helped me beyond FF is to sit down on Sundays and WATCH the games. I can’t tell you how many in my leagues are out doing other things on Sunday. God Bless these men for taking time to be with their wives and kids, I’m envious but if you want to get better at this and not rely as much on media members that seem to watch different games than I do…you need to sit down on Sunday and watch as much RedZone as possible and DVR any full games on the local channels so you can jump back and forth(NFL Rewind-Full Games during the work week)…yeah it’s like 6 hours plus SNF and I take a lot of notes to use at later dates. I don’t read as much off season reporting as many of you. I do value the camp reports with the writers that typically are not BIG MONEY guys on the TV and I like to read what they observe. It doesn’t always work out but I feel like I am reading the very best information from the guys and gals sitting in 90-100 degree heat watching and observing.

I do not read or value much that Adam Snifter reports OUTSIDE of his breaking contract news, breaking retirement news, breaking trade news, breaking suspension news, whatever he might mutter about schemes, player personnel, “how this guy will fit on this team” you must be snorting CoCo puffs if you put much stock in his “Xs and Os” analysis, I’m sorry but this guy gets way too much power and time to pontificate when he is basically a glorified morning traffic reporter on the local 5am News…yeah I don’t like that guy much at all.

More MoP Madness-I appreciate you all taking the time to read this far, the reason many of you are sticking around is not so I can help you with Taylor/McCaff at #1 because anybody can draft a sheet of recognizable names for 2-3 rounds, right? You’re here for the same reasons I read some of your threads…”I Want to Know What You’re Thinking” and it’s these next 2-3-4 tiers that start towards the Middle-End of Rd 2 and extend out several rounds until it becomes obvious you are drafting on total air and would be wise to just pick up that QB you’ve been waiting on in say Round 7-8-9…I have a few backs here I think are slam dunks for Top 15-20 range but not as many as you might think.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Tier 3(Cough Cough)

Alvin Kamara-7,500 yds and 67 TDs with 373 receptions leading to 1,285 touches and a career Yds per touch of close to 6 yds a clip…remember when I was writing about Joe Mixon and his 4.5 yds per touch…not per clip or per rush attempt but PER TOUCH. That means if you get the ball to Kamara twice you are almost guaranteed a 1st Down. 15-14-15-13 Games Started the last 4 seasons, he definitely is going to miss a couple games during the season.

The Moral Compass: I totally understand if some folks read the police report and many of the stories coming out about Kamara and his incident off the field at the Pro Bowl in Vegas last year. But the reality is you are going to be facing 7-9-11 others where the moral compass might not point at 12 O’Clock North like you have yours set. It’s possible they point at about 11:50 like yours truly. It appears as though Goodell isn’t prepared to take action on him in 2022 until the police proceedings unfold or some to an end. I don’t want to talk endlessly about this but if Kamara is eligible to play for all 17 games and is being projected around RB10+ off the board, that seems like a great discount for a guy that can post Top 5 numbers almost any week you start him. The Offense and head Coach has changed but AK’s talent has not.
 
Last edited:

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Aaron Jones-The only factor you need to think about is how much of the pie he has to share or can actually secure from AJ Dillon. Good on the Packers to figure out a way to have not 1 but 2 weapons at the RB spot and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of jealousy or bad feeling by either in this talented tandem.

The 2017 Draft Class at RB was special. We have McCaff, Cook, Mixon, Fournette, Kamara, very special class of RBs mixed with where we are at on their career path, they’re as good as they are going to get. Many have already had their “Career Year”

Back to Jones…he had a career high of 19 TDs in 2019 and then has posted 11 and 10 so he can still hit double digits but you are going to lose a few TDs to Dillon, maybe more than a few as we move forward. What would happen if Jones only racked up 6-8 TDs, you gotta play with the projections and see what kind of floor you are dealing with. Dillon is being taken/projected in the Top 25 of RBs, yes there are questions at Receiver so the RBs could see a bump in touches. 49-57-52 receptions…hang your hat on that and know that there are challenges for Aaron Rodgers, perhaps Aaron Jones will have a career year in receptions but that is the only wildcard here. Otherwise it is going to be about 75-100 yds total per week and about 50/50 or better that he scores and you are always going to see Dillon steal touches and production when you would prefer it were Aaron jones who you drafted.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Leonard Fournette-In 13 Games as the Bucs starting RB in 2021 he racked up about 1,300 yds and 10 TDs, very productive. That was 2021 and he was coming off a terrific Playoff run capped with a Super Bowl where he was an integral part of the game plan. With Brady still running things you would assume there is a big part of the Offense ahead of him but it should be noted the other Bucs’ RBs did nothing to keep Fournette from seizing control of things in 2020.

I haven’t discussed a lot of the back-ups or Rookie impact RBs and with Brady 45 yrs old you can bet the Bucs will lean heavily on Fournette for things like pass protection and such. But I do like what I see I in the Rookie Rachaad White and feel like he can at least shoulder some of the load and might actually look more explosive at points in the season. That still doesn’t mean I think Fournette barring injury is going to have less than 300 touches over 17 games. He was about 19-20 touches a game last year but the 69 receptions will be his high water mark as a Buccaneer, too many mouths to feed and Tom Brady IMHO is finally going to show signs of slowing down after he is revealed on the “Masked Singer” which is aired on his new Boss’ network, FOX. If you think Brady was spending time in the Bahamas because Giselle was being a naughty girl and he needed some family time…as Judas Priest would say “You got Another Thing Coming”
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Javonte Williams- “They want him to be the RB1 or lead back”…those are Mel Gordon’s words in the past week. MoP cannot be neutral or impartial because I have great expectations in 2022 for Javonte. In fact I think Russell Wilson will be 2nd fiddle or the back story at some point vs Javonte Williams and what he does with his touches in ’22. The upgrade at QB will be most welcome and perhaps Williams will see an increase in TDs when Wilson and Sutton/Jeudy etc are setting up shop with a few more PI calls in the end zone that weren’t there last year, perhaps some 1st and goal from the 1-yd line will help our poor Javonte out with some nice short plunges that he seemed to miss out on in ’22. I don’t believe you will need Gordon to go behind Williams but if it makes you feel more secure, draft them both. 250-260+ touches in his Rookie year, I assume he will see a couple more touches per game x17 games…is going to take him above 300 for the year. I see an uptick in his Touchdowns as well. You’ve seen me bash many of the RBs in Tiers 1 and 2 for good reason. I think more things point up for Williams and having a guy that can get him a break during the game will make him available in the 4th Q when Denver will be in strong competition with KC, LAC and LVR, don’t overthink this one.

If you have an opportunity to get him in the 2nd Round as your RB2, I think you seal up your backfield and can start hammering away on the WRs when others will be trying to figure out guys like Breece Hall, James Connor and Antonio Gibson. If you aren’t careful you are going to be wheeling out someone at RB2/Flex that you are not comfortable with and for good reasons. His back up also has a history of injuries when he is overloaded so there’s a limit to how much can be stolen from the Javonte Mile High Pie as I like to reefer I mean refer to it.

Vince Van Patten: “And the Shark Pool has raised MoP now to $3 Million after the check on the turn”…
MoP after some quick chip counting…”Check-Raise, I’m All-In!”


I believe in Javonte Williams and despite my disdain for Russell Wilson, he clearly is an upgrade and should help create some soft or easy scores for Williams and all Denver RBs but I feel Williams will get an increase in touches Year 2. He was the 1st RB selected in his class, wish Miami had gotten him but he wears Orange and Blue for another city instead. There’s no guarantees but many of the signs point to good things for Williams and I admit a little of it is leap of faith so I understand the push back. You will have to pass on a big name WR IMO to get him so that should be factored in at some point.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Nick Chubb-The issue I have is not his talent but he never seems to get enough touches over an entire season to exploit his potential. 2019-1772yds/8Tds on 334 touches and then injuries have limited him to 206 and 248 the last 2 seasons and also sharing some time with Kareem Hunt who is actively seeking a trade OUT of Cleveland. The Browns seem to have a never ending stable of RBs that look great every time they step on the field. You wonder why they don’t try and run the Wishbone?

I try and talk myself into Chubb being a 1st Rd Rb when I watch him play but the reality is Cleveland will be without a major weapon at QB. Things could change between now and say Week 1-2-3 but at the moment I think you could find better options or selections that will result in more steady production. Teams are going to try and dare the Browns into throwing the football until Watson returns Dec 4th.

The talent is there with Chubb and he looks sensational at times. The actual scoreboard says you might have challenges expecting 300+ touches and even if that is the case, you could see a drop off in ypc and yds per touch overall.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
James Conner-Without dumpster diving I will simply say it feels like Connor is TD dependent. Even if that fallacy is actually true, doesn’t the Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray offer the hope that easy TDs for many RBs are available in this offense? Rather than trying to prove how mediocre Connor might be or maybe just injury prone, why not go with the flow and take what the Defense gives you? He rushed for 725 yds in 2020 with the Steelers and he rushed for about the same number of yds in Arizona in 2021. The major difference was 6 TDs in ’20 and 18 TDs in ’21. It’s fair to lower the expectations in 2022 to say 10-12 TDs, somewhere in the middle but that also means you don’t believe in the AZ Offense. Hopkins is out 4-6 weeks I believe and that is going to open up the board for others to cash in. Connor could easily come out like a rocket early in the season, don’t discount playing alongside Murray.

One other thing you almost have to add into the mix is the expectations that Conner will miss a couple games and perhaps be on the Injury Report with little practice on some others. He is not a workhouse RB that gets 1,200 the hard way on the ground. He makes a living crashing the Red Zone in Arizona and even a 10-20% drop off leaves a lot of TDs and he could still make some of the difference up if his total yds were to increase to career year status even if his TDs slide to 10-12. Something to consider and I didn’t think I would want James Conner but this exercise has me thinking he could make an excellent RB2 or part of a RBBC for some of the folks out there.

And last but not least in this particular tier we find…

Ezekiel Elliot-9,630 total yds and 68 TDs in his first 5 years in the NFL. He has battled injuries, shown wear and tear, has to watch his back Pollard steal touches and occasionally look better with the football causing some folks to question if Zeke should be the lead RB or getting as many touches as he already does. 381-355-296-284…his touches have been trending down last 2 years. Yds per touch have dropped a lot from 5.3, 5.0, 4.4, 4.5 and even when he is handed volume Zeke isn’t always producing at the levels we have seen previously. 20 TDs the last 2 seasons, no problem projecting him for something like another 10 this year, 1,317/1,289 last 2 seasons, that could increase some but there is no specific reason to take it in that direction. If Elliott is there in the 4th Round and you are sitting on RB-WR-WR or some variant but you already have a strong RB1, then I think Elliott makes sense even if his ceiling wasn’t what it once was. I believe Pollard will see plenty of snaps and touches but some of it will be done with an increase in receptions.


And now we make the turn for Tier 4 and I like to joke along the way but pretty soon we are going to run out of RBs that make us want to run the podium. I would argue that we still have a few solid options and a couple that could be woefully undervalued. Again I didn’t make this Tiers up, these are not my rankings but I am simply weighing in against what I see posted across the many websites out there.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Tier 4

Travis Etienne-I’m a little surprised a guy that missed his entire Rookie Year and seemed as though nobody knew how he would be utilized, how can that guy go in the Top 20 RBs this year? I understand that many feel the new Head Coach and a Top Draft pick at QB going into his 2nd season, there should be some normalcy around Jacksonville this year. It’s hard to predict numbers or usage since there isn’t a track record here so most folks are shooting in the dark but pinning their hopes that Etienne will be on the field a lot more and since Jacksonville figures to be behind a lot, Travis is going to see a lot of targets out of the back field. James Robinson should not be discounted between the Tackles and at some point being the lead back on running plays. Etienne has possibilities but you are taking a lot of risk here.


Breece Hall-Rookie RB drafted by the New York Jets. My thoughts from a guy who is heavily invested in Elijah Moore, not feeling great about the overall Offense in New York and think the first month could be rocky. Zach is out for a month and likely missing Week 1 but you talk to fans and media, they all seem to think Joe Flacco is the man and will be just fine. Call me skeptical that I will be watching Joe Flacco nursing a 4-point lead in the 4th Q and handing the ball off to Hall as the Jets close out the clock and another victory…see that sounds farfetched to me. I feel like there are better options around here but understand if someone watched him religiously in college and feels we simply don’t know his talent yet.

-Both of the last RBs are young or lack any game experience in the NFL, difficult to gauge what that will mean for them. Some of the next guys in this tier do have some proven worth.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
David Montgomery-Despite a lot of belly aching by the FFC, Monty has racked up over 2,600 yds and 17 TDs the last 2 seasons, 24 overall since he entered the NFL. He did this playing in just 27-28 games so he shows a knack for producing almost 100 yds a week and 50/50 he scores a TD. You can’t find that around this part of the Draft. Monty becomes more important and valuable to those that waited on RB and ate up all the juicy names at WR and perhaps even a Big Name at QB or TE but now want to try and secure 3-4 RBs and form an RBBC of your own that will get you enough production to skate by many weeks until perhaps someone in your RBBC becomes the Bell Cow or Money man on whichever team they are playing.

RB 19/20…Round 4/5 turn or later? His back up was drafted 6th Rd 2021, Khalil Herbert oft injured thus far in his NFL career, hope he’s OK but Monty is set up to take 300-350 touches, he hit 301 in 2020. Resist the urge on the flashy new Rookie or RB with very little NFL tape so far, much easier to take free points when the Defense will give it to you. Monty has a chance to enter the Top 12 if things fall right and Justin Fields can keep Defenses honest with few weapons to work with.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Cam Akers-The only thing keeping from being the Alpha is Darrell Henderson who does seem to get plenty of reps in practice…but Akers is coming off an Achilles injury and was still out there giving it his all in the Playoffs/Super Bowl for the Rams even though he didn’t gain a lot of yds. His ADP has dropped to the point you have to put this kid on your radar. He’s still very young, hasn’t had a career year yet going into his 3rd Season and will want to give the entire NFL something to think about as he inches closer to that elusive 2nd contract which has not amounted to much for many RBs in the last couple season, only the elite are getting $10M+ a season to receive touches. Akers is on a talented team with talented coaches and even though his season might start off a little slow, this is another sure home run barring injury. The Rams are not going to abuse him or overuse him but anything under 250-300 touches would be a big surprise to me. If Travis Etienne interests you in this Tier, I would urge you to take a closer look at Akers and what you will be passing on. Many of the challenges and obstacles you find on other NFL teams, those aren’t issues for the Rams.


So far this Tier should be one of the most exciting because you are going to pick out 3-4 guys in here you can build around as either RB2/Flex if you are deep at RB, can also float 2-3 of these guys and likely cover up your RB spots if you went deep or strong at the other positions.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
J.K. Dobbins-I so want to like a Ravens’ RB but it always seems like a 2-3 headed mess and then Lamar Jackson runs them in all the time and is almost the best RB on the roster but I don’t want to debate it much. But then I do a little research and I start understanding why some might be higher on him than others.

His rookie year he had about 10 TDs and last year he was out with injury obviously all season so you have a guy that flashed some skills as a Rookie but was in RBBC…2 seasons later and maybe the coaches are ready for him to be the lead back and someone the team can rally around with Jackson and Andrews also being Stars on Offense. The upside in productivity if you want a projection…150+ touches as a Rookie, 250 would put Dobbins at about 15 touches a game and surely some RedZone looks as well. I think this might be the first time I endorse a RB as a potential RB3 on your roster, maybe not a guy you want to roll out there each and every week. At the same time he has to be mentioned as a potential 2023 RB being drafted much higher than he was in 2022. So this looks like potential value but Dobbins will have to prove he can stay on the field and look much better than Gus Edwards as an example to keep his starting spot. Dobbins was the #55 pick overall in 2020 so Baltimore had a plan for him. This situation looks better than several others mentioned ahead of Dobbins.

-Injury updates are coming in this week. I think Harbaugh wants to take it easy on Dobbins with Gus Edwards on the PUP for a month, odds are high there is going to be a lot of noise about other RBs on the roster, MoP would focus on Dobbins especially at this price point.
 

Stoneworker

Footballguy
Javonte Williams- “They want him to be the RB1 or lead back”…those are Mel Gordon’s words in the past week.
I respect your work and as a Broncos fan I'm also high on Javonte...but please at least be accurate. These are Gordon's actual words.

I think they have a plan on what they want heading in, but as far as the rotation goes, I really don’t know. I think they want ‘Vonte’ (RB Javonte Williams) to be the guy, but we do rotate, Gordon said on Wednesday. “He’ll take the first series and then the second series with the [No. 1 offense], I’ll take. Sometimes we switch, but you know kind of how it is. I don’t know how they will do the rotation.”
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Josh Jacobs-he has been given plenty of chances to show himself as an elite RB and he typically does not deliver on that front. That said he has 1,316/7Tds, 1,303/12Tds, 1,220/9Tds his first 3 seasons in the NFL and will now be working with his 3rd Head Coach inside of a year as are all the Raiders still on the roster from last season. His touch count has gone from 262-306-271 and he is being drafted as if his spot is being taken and other sin this tier are reliable proven options which is somewhat laughable but let’s not upset everyone in one sentence.

I dislike McDaniels and don’t want a lot to do with him until I see it for a full season. We’ll see what happens in Vegas, appears like he has quite a lot of talent to pull from. I know there are other RBs on the team but Jacobs has a few things working for the FFC that might make him an auto-pick for some. I don’t see anyone on the depth chart taking his spot, Jacobs is likely in his last season with Vegas and will want to showcase or light it up to secure the next contract, I like that in a RB. I won’t reach for Jacobs but I won’t ignore him or pass him up for someone with no NFL track history at this point in the Draft.

I might not have the last 1 or 2 RBs in bold green but they are pretty close especially factoring in where we are in the Draft at this point. For those who load up early on WRs, this should be comforting.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
AJ Dillon-Pump the brakes, will you? I like this guy plenty but he has a solid RB1 in front of him. 220+ touches last year produced 1,100+ yds and 7 TDs. Don’t say he can’t catch because he had 34 last year and the guy weighs 250? Will AJ ever get his chance to show he can be Derrick Henry 2.0? RBs can only wait so long and I anticipate the Packers will try and limit Aaron Jones some of the time so they can preserve both of these guys to the post season. Aaron jones is going to get 250-275+ touches depending on his production, where does that leave Dillon? With Adams leaving and young WRs filling up the roster it would seem like Rodgers and the Offense will lean on their stable of RBs to lead the way.

Unless Aaron Jones is injury prone you are going to be barking all season about how much better Dillon could be if he was on the field more, it’s in the Apple Tablets brought down from Rushmore. I respect the talent and why he is going to be selected before some starting RBs we haven’t even mentioned yet.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Elijah Mitchell-(Double Showcase Winner!!!) 11 Games, 1,100 yds and 6 TDs as a Rookie. He beats out the 3rd Rd RB selected ahead of him and has run off Mostert, relegated Jeff Wilson to a CoP RB and has most folks who watched him in practice salivating on the day he ran 85 yds for a TD on a move the pile drill. I saw he was nursing an injury but I don’t believe it to be serious or anything that will prevent him by the end of September, making those who passed on him feel guilty for not taking him. Don’t let that be you! I think San Fran is going to be pretty good again this year.

I know about Deebo, still believe Mitchell can improve on his 220+ touches or 20x a game they were putting the ball in his hands, mainly to keep it out of Jimmy G’s hands but still Mitchell is well liked and the staff feels they have their featured RB with Mitchell allowing them to utilize Deebo when and as they feel but nothing Samuel does detracts from what Mitchell can and will do this year. This is another from the Tier 4 that can easily make a run at Top 12 which means you are finding a potential RB1 late in the Draft, not easy to do.

Absolute gift at this point, don't overthink it and even if you have an RB1 and RB2, Mitchell will fill that Flex spot nicely on Sundays.

Mitchell/Montgomery or Mitchell/Akers should bring you some nice weeks and you still can back those up with a few more ahead in this Draft. I am not encouraging you to wait and do crazy things when you can secure guys like Najee Harris and then grab some amazing talent at WR until it becomes clear a looming drop off at RB is coming and then you try and grab at least one of the guys we have discussed in here. Also not a bad idea to split your picks RB/WR or vice versa the first 4-6 rounds of the Draft and then QB and TE start to become more of a priority if you don’t have one. These guys make decent Flex options as well if you already have a strong RB Corp form the first couple rounds.
 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
Great Post MOP, as always.

I actually like how they are separated into separate posts. Makes it easy to digest and respond to… and thumbs up the ones with my guys I drafted in them because I want you to be more correct on them.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Antonio Gibson-With Wentz at QB I think early in the season you will see plenty of Gibson who has amassed 2,300+ yds and 21 TDs in roughly 30 games on a very challenged Washington Football Team that is going thru a mascot and name change amongst a bevy of other things happening behind closed doors. 206 to 300 touches last year and the same head coach but there is a Rookie from the 3rd Rd named Brian Robinson from Alabama and eventually he is likely to see more touches depending on how the season unfolds in DC. Hard to project more than about 250 touches for Gibson but I also am not sure where I pull that random number from. He typically averages around 15-16 touches a game and since Washington doesn’t win a lot of games, he doesn’t get to close a lot of them out and he loses some of his touches when Washington trails by a couple scores. Gibson can be a Top 20 RB but he also could slide and have a less than stellar season with more mouths to feed in the back field going into 2022.

I won’t be reaching for him but his production thus far on a less than dynamic offense has been fairly productive. Too many games of 60-80 yds and no scores will put you in a tailspin eating up a starting spot. 1,000 yds rushing is less than 60 yds a week with a 17 game schedule. I do believe that Washington will look better this year and Wentz could look better than he did in Indy where he was trying to fill shoes of QB ghosts no longer there, tough spot for him. That said he can do some pretty good Mark Sanchez impersonations on any given Sunday so there’s that.

Brian Robinson will see more action in the 2nd half of the season is my belief. Will he be the starting RB for Washington? I think Gibson will manage to keep his starting job for '22 and that's really all we care about in redraft.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Chase Edmonds-RB3 material with some upside if he can nail down the starting spot and if the OL can provide some blocking and if he doesn’t lose too many touches to Mostert, Michel and Gaskin when they aren’t throwing the football 3 yds down the field to Hill, Waddle, Wilson and Easy-E or a streaking Mike Gesicki after he misses another run blocking assignment. Let’s be real, Sean Payton was supposed to be the Head Coach and we were left with Coach M&M and it remains to be seen what this Ivy League genius can actually do during the regular season. The winning % for the road Mike McDaniel is about to go down is not promising. When you factor in the team was 19-15 last 2 seasons, there isn’t time for him to start off 5-12 for example.

The good news is that so far it would seem that this guy does know what he’s doing. It might not make perfect sense right away to the entire fan base but it appears like he has a strong plan for the team and has brought in a lot of talent to get the OL turned around. Preseason games are not always the perfect test, wouldn’t put a lot of stock into Miami not running the ball well just yet. I didn’t see Armstead and Williams the last 2 weeks on the OL, none of the major weapons at WR are suiting up, MoP’s point thru all of this is Coach Mike is not coaching this team like they are a rebuild or young team, he’s treating them as adults mostly and outside of Tua I think he is making a strong impact so far. We’ll discuss Tua but let’s not derail the RB thread just yet.

This concludes Tier 4
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
We enter Tier 5 or that point in the boarding process where the airlines announce on the intercom that anyone left with a boarding pass please move towards the front as they are allowing everyone to board at this time. In other words, if you haven’t already found your seat and stowed your carry-on then you could be stuck in the back of the plane or as I call it “No-Class”

CEH-The Kansas City beleaguered former 1st Round Draft pick leads off this Final Fron-Tier and so far it hasn’t gone well for CEH. I don’ think McKinnon is a real threat to maintain a starting or lead back position so you start looking down the roster and you quickly circle Pacheco but the reality is he was a late round pick and is likely being groomed for good depth at this point. Are the Chiefs going to trust Pacheco with pass protection early in the season? Curb your enthusiasm on that front is all I’m suggesting. CEH has only played 23 games out of a possible 34 and a few of those he was hobbling. 1,700+ total yds and 11 TDs is about 65 yds and a 50/50 shot to score a TD most weeks, don’t see that arc changing much early on. In fact, he could even have a career year this season trying to fend off the new rookie. Typical RB3 and Bye week starter, anything better than that will be value with this pick so for some of you, this is a legit selection but personally I see others ahead that I am more interested in.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Miles Sanders-Always hurt and even when he is healthy it seems like things don’t always bounce his way. Can’t tell if he is in the dog house with the coaches but it’s a mystery as to why he isn’t utilized more. 229 touches to 192 to 163 last year, not exactly trending in the right direction but his yds per touch are eye popping and consistent his first 3 seasons. It’s hard to fathom how he got no TDs last year. He’s started 34 games or about 11 per year so he isn’t likely to be a weekly contributor and when you stare at his numbers on a spreadsheet you start to question why you don’t just find a better more reliable option at this point and move on. Sanders does not seem like a candidate to rack up 10-12 TDs, many RBs of course don’t hit that mark either but with Sanders you also have limited touches which compounds having to roster him. Kenneth Gainwell had 6 TDs on 101 touches last year and I expect his role to increase.

-The Philly Offense is no joke IMHO and while Sanders has been disappointing overall, when he does play and they make him the focus, production seems to be at a pretty strong level, the type you think Sanders could be a low end RB1 and then that thought fades over a couple weeks and then it starts to resurface. Frustrating but perhaps worth the risk.

Kareem Hunt-Not much to see here. Injured much of last season but even on limited touches in both 2018 and 2020, Hunt managed 1,200 yds and scored 11 TDs ’18 and 14TDs in ’20. The guy is capable of explosive plays and gaining large chunks but he needs to stay heathy and also be an integral part of the game plan. I would support Hunt on another team via trade where he can operate as a primary RB. There are more teams that would benefit from him being on their roster than you might initially think. If you grab Hunt you are hoping his trade request by Cleveland is honored.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Tony Pollard-This is at least the 2nd or 3rd time we are discussing the change of pace back or the RB2 on a team when some teams haven’t even entered a single RB yet on this list. With Pollard you are always going to be low in TDs with Zeke on the roster and likely the scoring RB. Pollard displays a lot of talent and his yds per touch are on the higher side of RBs around the league. 169 touches, his highest total to date and also 7.3 yds per touch up from 4.8 the year prior.

Damien Harris
-Fresh of 1,000+ yds and 15 TD last season in a mini-breakout year for him. Year 4 of his Rookie deal and not likely to be retained. The Patriots also have a strong RB behind him in Stevenson. I don’t have a lot to say about Harris and the Pats’ Offense which is being led by Matt Patricia. I am not a fan of this offense and what I am watching. Mac Jones was efficient as a Rookie and will likely get better but his weapons are lacking right now except for his backfield which has a few guys walking around with real potential. Harris only touched the ball 220 times last year but managed 15 Touchdowns! What if that trims back to 8? I have nothing concrete to say that will happen but Stevenson is going to see the ball even more than he did last year. They combined for 367 touches which is what you would see from the RB1 if they were lead back on a run first type team but New England uses more of an RBBC and no problems playing the hot hand if any of them are breaking tackles.

To muddy things up further the Pats have Pierre Strong they took and he looks great in camp. I believe Strong will see a limited number of touches his rookie year but in 2023 you will see something more like Stevenson 45%, Strong 30%, RB 3/4 the other 25% or some variant but I do not expect Harris to be retained. But I do feel they will use Harris plenty this season since they aren’t likely to resign him. Another 1,000 yds and perhaps 8-10 TDs are not unreasonable and for where you can grab him, you might have another one of those floaters at RBBC if you waited.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Rashaad Penny-Let’s talk $$$ and then let’s talk about the Rookie they drafted. Penny was a 1st Rd Draftee and the Seahawks opted to exercise the 5th Year Option and what you have here is a RB age 26 entering his 5th year, will a team pay him Big Bucks in 2023 at the age of 27 to be their starting RB for a 2-3 years because that will be about the shelf life he would have left based on age alone not so much wear and tear. In fact, the $5.5M+ the Seahawks are paying him in 2022 seems to be based largely on their own though vs production since Penny has missed so much time due to injuries. Even his 4 game run at the end of last season which pushed many folks deep into the Playoffs with his surge.

Penny is being paid like a starting RB and since I don’t believe the Seahawks will retain him past 2022, Penny will want to try to replicate some of his heroics in ’21 so he can find a decent contract. If you want to look at it from just that POV, there’s a lot of motivation for him to do well and he has a Rookie behind him that likely will be starting in 2023 just due to economics and how RBs are treated in the NFL. Kenneth Walker is nursing an injury to my knowledge right now and I think they will bring him along slowly, they never rushed or pushed Penny and he missed a lot of time. I’m not predicting that with Walker who is going to be a terrific RB at some point but I see them being cautious early in the season and likely more touches will be had in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th month of the season. And with Penny’s injury history you might be wise to back him up quickly. The fact is you are not having to get Penny in the early rounds and he could come out in September getting a lot of touches early in the season. But the back 8-9 games of the season I can see a bigger split of perhaps 60/40 and since Penny is not likely retained, why would Seattle want to risk a lot of injury with Walker as he learns the ropes?

Overall, I am not a fan of the Seattle Offense but mostly because of the QB, there is talent at WR and TE, this could be a surprise team in terms of Offense. They’re dangerous when they are down 21-7 and have nothing to lose. They still can hand off to Penny running into Nickel and Dime packages trying to cover DK Metcalf and the rest, could be some easy chunks there for guys like Penny. You could do a lot worse down here but overall the Seahawks Offense is going to be Bottom 10 when you look around at what other teams are wheeling out. Health with Penny would be main concern for Redraft ’22…I don’t care about 2023 right now so Penny should elevate above this draft spot.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Devin Singletary-I have tried to read as many camp reports and clips on the Bills since they should have one of the premier offenses in the NFL. I know folks are hot on the Rookie-James Cook who they drafted in the 2nd Round. I see Ford eating into Moss’ touches more so than Singletary. Devin had played himself out of the starting role with 5 fumbles his first 4 games even though he didn’t lose any of them from my research. Somewhere around late Nov/Early Dec the Bills did some soul searching and Dev Singletary was re-installed as the lead back and he responded with some big games including 95/TD, 80/TD, 110/2TDs, 110/2TDs…and this big streak of 6 scores inside of 4 games has many believing that Singletary will be the lead back in his final year of his rookie deal. 1,000 yds and 10 TDs might be what you end up with here and considering he is going anywhere from the 8th Round and later and despite perhaps other competitors grabbing Cook early, I would simply take Singletary and plan on getting plenty of touches early in the season and likely more of a split back field the second half of the season. But make no mistake, if Cook were to struggle or be unavailable for certain weeks, Singletary is in position to make huge returns for what is likely your RB3. 180-194-228 touches his first 3 seasons and I think his ceiling is right around 250 because he doesn’t catch a lot of balls and his TD production the end of last year is driving some of this enthusiasm. Those easy scores likely won’t be there early in the season when all 32 NFL teams think they are in the thick of it.

If you are planning doing an RBBC to fill out that 2nd RB starting spot on your roster, I think Singletary can easily be a spot starter and perhaps more for you. The departure of a couple Bills’ WRs leaves 180+ targets on the table and they won’t all go to Diggs and Davis. I also think there will be more 4th Q running the clock out and sometimes that can lead to cheap scores or big chunks when the Defense knows they are going to lose the football game. I don’t believe you have to draft Ford to have a good ’22 return from Singletary. I like him plenty in this large tier after the first 20-25 RBs have come off the board.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Cordarrelle Patterson-Career year of 1,166 and 11 TDs with a career high 52/548/5 receiving so this is not a starting RB masking as a WR. I would not bank on him duplicating his numbers, he is also 31 years old and should be losing a step sooner or later. I do not discount his talent and teams previously having an inability to utilize him. That said he has a terrible QB situation when you factor in all 32 starting QBs. I like Allgeier as a late round flyer a lot more than Patterson. That said, the Falcons could use Patterson for a lot of short routes and outlet passes for the QB tandem they plan on going with. I wouldn’t count on Damien Williams being big factor except maybe in the red zone whenever Atlanta manages to enter that part of the field. I understand why folks might be drafting Patterson and feeling like he will at least have some decent returns in garbage time, that’s possible. Again I think he is worth more Weeks 1-8 than Weeks 9-17 as they start to play Allgeier more to see if they have anything there before they enter the Draft next season.

If you look at his game logs, very TD dependent so you might want to consider this a bye week filler at this point. I’m sure he will still have a few strong games but on other weeks you will have a big hole on your roster.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Rhamondre Stevenson-133/600+ yds on the ground 4.6 ypc behind an average OL, 147 touches and 5 TDs as a rookie behind an RB1 that saw 15 rush TDs. Plenty of red zone looks at the goal line to go around as the patriots are one of the more committed to the ground game and how important it is for Mac Jones as a young NFL QB. Unless Rhamondre or Damien Harris suddenly become unavailable for a long stretch, you are always going to be limited in what these guys can do. I also think New England will take a step back this year and miss the Playoffs. Maybe 8-9 record and look decent or win a few games they shouldn’t because they have a Hall of Fame head Coach but that’s not a reason to grab both Stevenson and Harris, that might be a tough juggle week to week but the investment is not that high so it’s understandable why many are gravitating towards one or the other as a possible value around this section.

MG3- Will still have some moments in the Denver back field but clearly the 2nd fiddle to Javonte Williams in 2023. I don’t think they will take Javonte off the field as often as they might have his Rookie season. Gordon has even mentioned that Denver wants to see Javonte take the lead spot. Gordon is being paid $2.5M which doesn’t seem like a lot but they could have just drafted 1-2 RBs late on Rookie deals and let him go, push Williams as the lead back but they did not do that. Still I feel it is insurance in case Williams were to miss time for any reason. I don’t believe most folks who draft him are going to want to start him most weeks. But I will say that if he were to become the starter for any number of reasons that Denver will be in many shootouts with NFC West teams amongst others and there will be scores to go around. It’s possible even with Williams that Gordon could be a decent flex option throughout the season. I’m not totally sold on the WRs and the rest of what Wilson is working with and he might find a veteran like MG3 very valuable on 3rd down and passing situations.

Not a lot of upside sharing time but there’s enough there he should be on a roster as RB4/5 material.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
-The rest of this Tier 5 has a lot of Rookies that depending on your scoring and roster rules, it’s possible these guys are drafted earlier if you have something like a 2-3 man keeper league where you have a specific round every year where whoever you draft you have the option to keep next year.


Kenny Walker the Third-Already battling injury, Penny retained at $5.5M, Walker will certainly get touches but they are not going to start him right away as he learns the nuances of pass blocking so he has more value when they get a franchise QB in 2023 IF IF IF they do not sign Jimmy G when the Niners eventually release him to sign anywhere. An upgrade at QB changes the whole offense even if you don’t believe in Jimmy G. At some point in the season when things look more like Seattle getting a Top 5 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, that’s when I think you will see Walker a lot more. The Seahawks have a dynamic RB and they even have a couple others that could be cut or released…Homer and Dallas couldn’t be the other RBs behind Walker? If Seattle wanted to do that then they wouldn’t be paying Penny. Also should be noted they made this decision PRIOR to drafting Walker, Penny can get paid $5M+ and only see 30-40% of the touches but it seems unlikely. I would temper enthusiasm early on with Kenny.

James Cook-Just think Redraft 2022, forget about how much of the pie he likely will have in 2023. He’s good, he’s in an explosive style offense and every week in the Shark Pool we are going to hear endless kavetching about how much Cook should be featured and getting more touches and this debate will go on all year. Cook will likely be the feature back in 2023, Buffalo is paying big dollars to Allen and Diggs, sacrifices have to be made and the NFL is set up so you don’t have to pay a ton of money to your RB in order to get production. Limited by Singletary and others in 2022, bright future for 2023 and beyond. It’s possible he kicks the door down and makes it painful for Buffalo to call plays without him on the field but I think it’s more reasonable to assume we will see a guy flash mad skills at times but usually take a back seat to Singletary on 1st and 2nd Down on 2-3 drives in a row and then Cook will be featured for a drive or two and Singletary can rest. Buffalo is going to be on all cylinders but that doesn’t mean your FF team will always be popping off at RB with the Bills
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Dameon Pierce-The Texans are showing everyone they are planning to feature Pierce and the other RBs are spearheaded by Marlon Mack who has mostly been underwhelming when his number has been called be it Indy or now in Houston. I’m sure Mack will see touches early in the season and Pierce cannot be a 350 touch volume guy his Rookie year in this Offense, he simply won’t survive. Can Pierce perhaps touch the ball 200-250 times as a Rookie and make folks pay attention? Can Pierce be a RB that will go late in 2022 but in 2023 be a Top 3 to 5 Round RB who has an RB 15-20 ranking going into 2023? That is possible and not totally a shot in the dark so there is some upside if Pierce is overlooked by many in your local league.

But MoP wouldn’t hitch his wagon too hard to Lovie Smith who seems like he completely backed into this starting head coaching spot. Won’t surprise me if Houston is trying out their 4th Head Coach in about 3-4 seasons next year, and I have some bad feelings about Houston, the owner, the front office, seems like some of those folks have no idea what they are doing and even when they find talent on their roster they do everything possible to send them packing to other teams, that’s unfortunate.

The Texans are a “AA” or “AAA” baseball team if you want a good analogy. They are not professional in my opinion and I would not want much to do with anyone they are wheeling out. They can’t all be Top 10 RBs and there is plenty here that should be warning signs keeping folks away but you have people that like to go ALL IN, on an inside straight draw and sometimes they hit in the river for a bad beat and think that’s winning poker. Same applies here where you can find a crust of bread in a trash dumpster but that doesn’t make it a good place to find a meal. Can I be any more, clear?

All that said...we are 35-40 RBs into the Draft and we are talking about RB4-5 and beyond material, what is there really to lose at this point? What are you passing at other positions around the double digit rounds? So from that POV, even though I don't like the Texans, might be hard not to grab him and just see what happens. Nobody really knew who Arian Foster was way back when.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Michael Carter-Seems like the Jets are wanting to use at least a 2-back approach and they invested in their rookie RB after drafting Carte last year. 55 targets, 36, 65% isn’t that great for a RB where the elite rock around 80% since many of them are short outlets and screens. Injuries already on the OL and Breece Hall being touted as the RB1, you can see Carter being on the waiver wire potentially by Week 3 of the season. Jets only invested a 4th so they have a rookie RB in place as their CoP for the next couple years at a cheap price. I could even see them grabbing another dynamic RB next year and moving Carter further down the depth charts.

964/4TDs, 183 touches and 5.3 yds a touch wasn’t bad. I don’t particularly want either Carter or Hall on my team but happy to watch this battle unfold to get a better idea on what to expect next year when this Offense will be a lot further along than it is right now.

Nyheim Hines-Back up and worth the most to Taylor owners. Matt Ryan might add a little more production for Hines as the pass catching CoP RB on this team but you mostly have a guy you are thinking about releasing to the waiver wire most weeks.

And that concludes about the Top 40 projected RBs right now when you take many rankings and put them into the blender. I think I should discuss a few long shots I see after these first 40 are gone, not a lot to look at but if you are going for different long shots in the last couple rounds I do see some upside with a few guys. I’ll run over a few briefly.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Darrell Henderson will get touches but we have seen him operate and I think he is the CoP RB for the Rams and Akers will be given the chance to be the lead RB. I don’t think the Rams will overuse Akers but having a quality back up will help keep Akers fresh throughout the season as he comes off an Achilles tear/injury. I believe in Akers and I don’t think you have to draft Henderson.

Alexander Mattison is another quality RB but will need for Cook to be unavailable for him to have much value and there is also a new RB named Ty Chandler they took in the 5th as I recall, good looking RB from North Carolina that is buried on the depth chart behind Cook and Mattison but has shown some flashes.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
James Robinson-2,400+ yds and 18 TDs his 1st 2 seasons including 289 touches as a rookie and almost 500 since he entered the NFL 2 seasons ago, missed a lot of time last season. 4.9 yds per touch and 5.1 last season, he’s efficient. 80 catches in 27 starts. I like Travis Etienne and feel they will utilize that guy plenty but you still have Robinson and he can tote the rock whenever Jacksonville is competitive and has an opportunity to win, those games I think JRob will be very valuable. They don’t have tons of Alpha-like talent at WR and TE right now, plenty of room for dynamic RBs to enter and take snaps and touches. I find it hard to believe he will be shoved to the bench his 3rd year into the NFL with a young QB that also needs protection in order to find some of his more talented receivers. I like this late dart throw with some proven productivity vs more of a shot in the dark much earlier in the Draft. I’d like to hear what others are thinking about the Jax Jags, I like the new head coach but think they could easily go 4-13 this year and start looking at impact skill guys next year.

Kenneth Gainwell looked pretty good in limited touches and I love what he can do catching the football but Philly has weapons now at WR and doesn’t have to just throw short passes. In fact, I think Philly is going to be a pretty strong offense and the price point for Sanders and Gainwell seems reasonable but you always have Boston Scott lurking. 100 touches for 540+ yds and 6 TDs, you have to like what you saw for a guy that was drafted in the 5th round. Someone on Philly is going to way out produce their draft selection at RB. Gainwell and Scott both have a chance to easily make that happen depending on what Sanders can do as a starter. MoP thinks this offense is going to spend a lot of time in the Red Zone so maybe use that as a measuring stick for some of their RBs. More than one could be productive.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
JD McKissic-Flex or the waiver wire most weeks I find.

Jamaal Williams-Not the starting RB, not at all unless Swift is unavailable which he has been a lot his first couple seasons.

Khalil Herbert-Availability is a huge concern so far.

Isaiah Spiller-The Offense in general means whoever is getting touches should produce. Ekeler is the starting RB but has missed some time and that opens up the board to others. Spiller had many detractors coming out of college but he has others optimistic that his talent was matched with a solid offense making him a potential wildcard should he see the field for a lengthy period of time. Worth the most to those who draft Ekeler in my opinion.

Raheem Mostert-has not played much in the preseason and has not been healthy since 2019. The Miami Dolphins look very disorganized so far outside of their Rookie QB and Rookie WR, both Skylar and Easy E look like they have bright NFL futures but the reality is Tua will be the QB as long as he can go in 2022. My crystal ball is telling me we see Teddy B sooner vs later and at some point they won’t waste a lot of snaps on a 30 year old RB likely to be here for just 1 season to try and teach the playbook being implemented from SF where Mike McDaniel came from. I think you can do a lot better down in here.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Rachaad White has looked good in Tampa, one of the few bright spots so far in camp IMHO. How much will he play with a 45 year old vet like Brady leading the way? His ability to pass protect will be the wildcard on whether he has a productive rookie season.

Brian Robinson-The Rookie is making noise and might eventually take over or find himself getting a decent number of touches even with Gibson in front of him. It’s Washington so I wouldn’t get too crazy yet but he might have an NFL future and I want to see him play and develop this year.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Isiah Pacheco-This world class opera singer was brought in from Italy to cascade and sooth the players on the sidelines during football games…no that’s not true. Nobody believes in CEH and nobody is thrilled with McKinnon either so this name is being passed around a lot. He could go undrafted if his slot at RB75 holds up but I imagine it will become clearer in the next week or two that he is in line for some touches. I want to be clear that Andy Reid is not likely to pin his entire offense on this unheralded rookie that is having quite a camp. I’m not sold you will be able to start this guy early in the 2022 season but perhaps by Week 8 when he has the nuances of being a professional RB in the NFL down to a science, maybe he will become a reliable Flex for some folks. I don’t expect a lot of him in September, more in October and a little more in Nov and Dec.

I’m glad people have discovered him but what they have uncovered exactly is still a mystery IMHO. Andy Reid has brought in some big names in recent years that didn’t make it. Maybe an unheralded rookie can cause a stir and make some noise. I mention him but I wouldn’t grade your overall Draft on whether you grab this guy or not. If he’s there and you have room, why not? It might be a few weeks before you see him taking a lot of meaningful snaps on Sunday.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Myles Gaskin-I only mention him because Mostert in front of him cannot stay healthy. Chase the RB1 has missed plenty of time along his career prior to Miami. Gaskin has looked better than Sony Michel who was signed last at RB for depth in camp and perhaps he might make the roster here. Gaskin is on the last year of his rookie deal and I believe by Week 6-7-8, he might be last man standing. There is an improved OL that has not been playing as a complete unit while the Phins hold back Armstead at LT and Connor Williams who will start at Center according to the Head Coach when they break Week 1.

Phins are stronger than I can ever remember at WR with Hill and Waddle leading the way and Wilson plus the Rookie Ekunma forming a very explosive group to throw to. That has to open up running lanes and if players in front of Gaskin repeat their inability to stay healthy…nobody is talking about Gaskin, he did fumble on a reception late the other night when the Phins were driving for the lead but that could have happened to anyone of the RBs on this roster, helmet hit on the ball and it popped out. I wouldn’t close the book on Gaskin just yet. He has displayed better vision at finding the holes so far.


I hope you enjoyed some of this rant, thank you for taking the time. I appreciate your comments, feedback and discussion.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Last Running Back to finish Top 5 age 26 or older?

LeSean McCoy 2016

Notable running backs who will be over the age of 26 for the 2022 season:
  • Alvin Kamara
  • Leonard Fournette
  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Dalvin Cook
  • James Conner
  • Nick Chubb
  • Aaron Jones
  • Derrick Henry
Dave Kluge @DaveKluge · Apr 22
You mentioned 26 or older but I am pretty sure you meant 27 or older. Ekeler and Connor were Top 5 last year and were 26. Henry and Jones were 26 in 2020. In 2016, McCoy and Murray were 28.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Javonte Williams- “They want him to be the RB1 or lead back”…those are Mel Gordon’s words in the past week.
I respect your work and as a Broncos fan I'm also high on Javonte...but please at least be accurate. These are Gordon's actual words.

I think they have a plan on what they want heading in, but as far as the rotation goes, I really don’t know. I think they want ‘Vonte’ (RB Javonte Williams) to be the guy, but we do rotate, Gordon said on Wednesday. “He’ll take the first series and then the second series with the [No. 1 offense], I’ll take. Sometimes we switch, but you know kind of how it is. I don’t know how they will do the rotation.”
In all fairness, MoP did say right after the quote that I could not be impartial :lmao:

I have Javonte going North of about 300 touches this year. I don't see a WR stable that is screaming as the best part of the offense but I'm sure Wilson will make them look better than they have previously. Williams should see 15-18 carries plus a couple catches most weeks. I see a bump up for his TDs but I am bullish on Javonte's total touches. Some weeks he might get 20+ carries when he is ripping off chunks thru the Defense. Wilson has no problem turning around and handing off, chewing up clock, Wilson plays a different game than the previous QBs who were lined up in Denver.

MG3 had 230 touches-1,131/10TDs, had very similar numbers the previous year so it's reasonable that he isn't falling off a cliff this year.
Javonte was 246 touches-1,219/7TDs, 43 receptions vs 28 by MG3 and I think Javonte can improve upon that.

300 touches minus 50 receptions would leave Javonte with 250 carries over 17 weeks which I think is less than 15 carries a week, eventually he ahs to see an uptick in touches.

Nobody saw Taylor jumping from 260 to 380 last year or whatever it was he did. I see Javonte taking a big leap forward this season.
 
Last edited:

jm192

Footballguy
Devin Singletary-I have tried to read as many camp reports and clips on the Bills since they should have one of the premier offenses in the NFL. I know folks are hot on the Rookie-James Cook who they drafted in the 2nd Round. I see Ford eating into Moss’ touches more so than Singletary. Devin had played himself out of the starting role with 5 fumbles his first 4 games even though he didn’t lose any of them from my research. Somewhere around late Nov/Early Dec the Bills did some soul searching and Dev Singletary was re-installed as the lead back and he responded with some big games including 95/TD, 80/TD, 110/2TDs, 110/2TDs…and this big streak of 6 scores inside of 4 games has many believing that Singletary will be the lead back in his final year of his rookie deal. 1,000 yds and 10 TDs might be what you end up with here and considering he is going anywhere from the 8th Round and later and despite perhaps other competitors grabbing Cook early, I would simply take Singletary and plan on getting plenty of touches early in the season and likely more of a split back field the second half of the season. But make no mistake, if Cook were to struggle or be unavailable for certain weeks, Singletary is in position to make huge returns for what is likely your RB3. 180-194-228 touches his first 3 seasons and I think his ceiling is right around 250 because he doesn’t catch a lot of balls and his TD production the end of last year is driving some of this enthusiasm. Those easy scores likely won’t be there early in the season when all 32 NFL teams think they are in the thick of it.

If you are planning doing an RBBC to fill out that 2nd RB starting spot on your roster, I think Singletary can easily be a spot starter and perhaps more for you. The departure of a couple Bills’ WRs leaves 180+ targets on the table and they won’t all go to Diggs and Davis. I also think there will be more 4th Q running the clock out and sometimes that can lead to cheap scores or big chunks when the Defense knows they are going to lose the football game. I don’t believe you have to draft Ford to have a good ’22 return from Singletary. I like him plenty in this large tier after the first 20-25 RBs have come off the board.
I have really warmed up on him as Camp/Pre-season has worn on.

If they trusted him with the ball in his hands to that extent late in the season/during the playoffs--I have a hard time thinking he's going to get his role taken by a rookie. All of the quotes I've seen since the day Cook was drafted have said he'll be a change of pace guy, pass catching guy, etc. No one in Buffalo seems to be saying he's going to take over the backfield in the future.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Here were the team RB scoring totals in 0 PPR leagues last year.

IND - 433.7
NEP - 420.0
CLE - 416.3
TEN - 379.8
LAC - 373.1
DET - 356.9
ARI - 351.7
GBP - 350.7
WAS - 345.3
CIN - 344.4
DEN - 343.4
TBB - 339.4
PHI - 334.8
KCC - 332.3
ATL - 321.7
DET - 316.4
LVR - 315.7
SEA - 308.1
MIN - 297.8
SFO - 291.3
BUF - 282.8
NOS - 275.9
NYJ - 268.0
CAR - 267.5
CHI - 266.4
LAR - 265.1
BAL - 259.8
PIT - 245.2
MIA - 242.6
NYG - 239.6
JAC - 231.9
HOU - 217.0

Last year's results don't necessarily translate to this year, as there have been numerous personnel and coaching changes and some teams look a lot different. But it's always good to have more information than less to try to form an opinion on what will happen.
 

jm192

Footballguy
Dameon Pierce-The Texans are showing everyone they are planning to feature Pierce and the other RBs are spearheaded by Marlon Mack who has mostly been underwhelming when his number has been called be it Indy or now in Houston. I’m sure Mack will see touches early in the season and Pierce cannot be a 350 touch volume guy his Rookie year in this Offense, he simply won’t survive. Can Pierce perhaps touch the ball 200-250 times as a Rookie and make folks pay attention? Can Pierce be a RB that will go late in 2022 but in 2023 be a Top 3 to 5 Round RB who has an RB 15-20 ranking going into 2023? That is possible and not totally a shot in the dark so there is some upside if Pierce is overlooked by many in your local league.

But MoP wouldn’t hitch his wagon too hard to Lovie Smith who seems like he completely backed into this starting head coaching spot. Won’t surprise me if Houston is trying out their 4th Head Coach in about 3-4 seasons next year, and I have some bad feelings about Houston, the owner, the front office, seems like some of those folks have no idea what they are doing and even when they find talent on their roster they do everything possible to send them packing to other teams, that’s unfortunate.

The Texans are a “AA” or “AAA” baseball team if you want a good analogy. They are not professional in my opinion and I would not want much to do with anyone they are wheeling out. They can’t all be Top 10 RBs and there is plenty here that should be warning signs keeping folks away but you have people that like to go ALL IN, on an inside straight draw and sometimes they hit in the river for a bad beat and think that’s winning poker. Same applies here where you can find a crust of bread in a trash dumpster but that doesn’t make it a good place to find a meal. Can I be any more, clear?

All that said...we are 35-40 RBs into the Draft and we are talking about RB4-5 and beyond material, what is there really to lose at this point? What are you passing at other positions around the double digit rounds? So from that POV, even though I don't like the Texans, might be hard not to grab him and just see what happens. Nobody really knew who Arian Foster was way back when.
I loved him in the double digit rounds. Now he's going in the 5th round of mocks I've done. So we're already seeing that price that we're hoping he rises to. COULD he return value there? Maybe. But feels like the sleeper hype has him being drafted at or above his ceiling.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Last Running Back to finish Top 5 age 26 or older?

LeSean McCoy 2016

Notable running backs who will be over the age of 26 for the 2022 season:
  • Alvin Kamara
  • Leonard Fournette
  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Dalvin Cook
  • James Conner
  • Nick Chubb
  • Aaron Jones
  • Derrick Henry
Dave Kluge @DaveKluge · Apr 22

This is awesome Bobby, how do you take any of those names when the trend is what you posted?

I can live without most of them and can argue a bunch of reasons why on top of age... Kamara WILL be without Payton, Fournette has never been a good wire to wire RB, Zeke looks old and tired of hearing about hampering injuries, Cook misses time, Conner managed to stay pretty healthy last year, Chubb doesn't get enough touches, Jones shares time and Henry has a lot of wear and tear. Those are just flippant quick takes but I zoned in on Najee Harris near the top of the Draft and some of the appeal is how young he is and only entering Year 2 and expecting him to see a LION's SHARE of the touches at RB. The Steelers' OL is terrible from what I am reading, would like that to get figured out.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top