Running backs with the most touches (1 Viewer)

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

This thread is a hypothetical. Let's pretend every single running back will stay healthy next year. While offenses do play a factor in things, I believe that in general touchdowns are more of a fluke than anything.

So...that leaves us with the biggest predictor. Touches. Here are the top ten guys of 2009 in terms of touches. I also listed where they finished the season.

Note - this is STANDARD SCORING PER FBG's.

Chris Johnson 1

Steven Jackson 10

Maurice Jones Drew 3

Adrian Peterson 2

Thomas Jones 6

Ray Rice 4

Cedric Benson 16

Matt Forte 18

Ryan Grant 8

Frank Gore 5

Ricky Williams 276

Shockingly, Chris Johnson had the most touches...and he finished as the top guy. This really comes as no surprise. If you're going to finish in the top ten you need to get loads of touches. Yet I see some folk and various sites predicting the likes of Jamal Charles to finish in the top ten without expecting him to get gobs of carries and receptions.

The only guys to finish in the top 10 that didn't rank amongst the league leaders in touches were Ricky Williams and Joseph Addai. They both finished *just* outside the top 10 in touches and were also helped by a fairly large number of touchdowns.

So instead of just asking who you think will finish in the top ten (though that's essentially what I'm asking), I'm curious to see who you guys think will rank top 10 in touches next year? Consider what you will - team philosophy, threat of rbbc, team offense, team defense, schedule, offensive line, lack of other team options, or anything else you can think of.

My picks to receive the most touches in 2010:

(no particular order)

Chris Johnson

Steven Jackson

MJD

Adrian Peterson

Ray Rice

Frank Gore

Matt Forte

Shonn Greene

Ryan Matthews

Michael Turner

These guys might not all finish in the top 10 fantasy wise but I think most of them will. Worst case scenario it's another way to pass some time and take some guesses.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

My picks to receive the most touches in 2010:(no particular order)Chris JohnsonSteven JacksonMJDAdrian PetersonRay RiceFrank GoreMatt ForteShonn GreeneRyan MatthewsMichael TurnerThese guys might not all finish in the top 10 fantasy wise but I think most of them will. Worst case scenario it's another way to pass some time and take some guesses.

Benson had 25.9 touches per game in the 12 full games he played. Johnson averaged 25.5 last year. Assuming 16 games played, what makes you think Benson won't be in the top 10 this year?

 

[Sabertooth]

If they stayed healthy

1. Gore

2. Greene

3. MJD

4. Sjax

5. Turner

6. Ronnie

7. Cedric

8. Beanie

9. Adrian

10. Caddy

 

[Crimson King]

I'm surprised that Rashard Mendenhall hasn't been mentioned on anyones list. I would think he should be a slam dunk top 10 in touches barring injury.

 

[Dismattle]

I guess it could be concern with "8 men in the box" w reguards to Pitt & QB issue for at least 4 wks? I would agree though with Hightower maintaing the title of starter that possibly Beanie or even Caddy (D. Ward) could be exchanged with Mendy.

I would also imho caution against Forte but not because the Def wont allow for time spent rushing the ball. I'm more concerned with Chester Taylor!

So Ill take a gamble and say Ryan Grant w Johnson leading the charge!

 

[bostonfred]

I don't think Forte will be in the top ten in touches with Mike Martz and Chester Taylor in town. Same goes for Greene/Tomlinson - you might get fairly high rushing numbers from Greene, but I don't think he'll get the receptions to make the top ten in touches. Maybe borderline. Ryan Matthews is a rookie, and they have a decent CoP in Sproles. Not spectacular, but decent. I'd say all three have a marginal chance at best of making top 10, but there are so many rbbc's that it's hard to predict who should take their places. I'd take Ryan Grant against any of them heads up, but he's a marginal top 10 guy too because he doesn't get the receptions and he doesn't get benson/turner carries. Portis might end up on this list if he bounces back - he seems like a great late round flier in redraft. McCoy doesn't seem built for it but he might turn into that guy. I can see other guys like Beanie or one of the Houston backs having an outside shot at this if he just plain takes over like Chris Johnson and to a lesser extent ADP did in the past. It's a good question.

 

[dmac37]

My picks to receive the most touches in 2010:(no particular order)Chris JohnsonSteven JacksonMJDAdrian PetersonRay RiceFrank GoreMatt ForteShonn GreeneRyan MatthewsMichael TurnerThese guys might not all finish in the top 10 fantasy wise but I think most of them will. Worst case scenario it's another way to pass some time and take some guesses.

Benson had 25.9 touches per game in the 12 full games he played. Johnson averaged 25.5 last year. Assuming 16 games played, what makes you think Benson won't be in the top 10 this year?

If we are assuming no injuries or other outside problems then yes Benson will be a for top 10 in touches.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

Good points everyone. I'll break down each one in a separate post to not cloud things up too much.

I don't think very highly of Chester Taylor. He averaged 3.6 ypc last year on a better team with a better o-line. Matt Forte averages 3.6 with the garbage around him and people think he's getting replaced? Next year, maybe. Not this year and not with Chester Taylor. I think that was more a move to replace the non existent backup situation. I really don't see him getting more touches than any other backup.

While I am not a believer of Forte's talent I do think he's in line for a lot of touches. Mike Martz doesn't run as much as many other guys but I think at a minimum Forte will average 17 touches a game (13 carries and 4 catches/game). With a conservative projection that would generally put him on the cusp of the top 10. Kevin Smith did it in '06 ('07 the team was a huge mess and took issue with Martz). Frank Gore was on pace for top ten touches before Martz was fired. I really think Forte is a lock for top ten touches. Whether he turns it into fantasy gold is another matter.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

You guys are right in regard to Benson. I bumped him down a few carries because of the new weapons and since he gets zero receptions (okay, one or two). But Lewis has always run his guys into the ground.

He's another Michael Turner. After reading some more scouting reports for Matthews I've dumped him from this list. It seems his blocking has been a question at times and while it remains to be seen how he'll be used in the passing game he doesn't have a lot of experience catching in college.

Still, if he grasps blitz pickups and proves to be competent at catching the football (both big if's) before the season starts I think crater face will load up on the young guy.

While I do believe Tomlinson is a long ways from his old self (3.3 ypc last year) Sproles wasn't anything incredible (3.7). Sproles looked good catching the football but if LT hadn't been so washed up I believe he would have ended up with more catches than he did (instead of his 1 or 2 per game I think it could have been 2-3).