moleculo
Footballguy
I am fortunate to be in a position where I can be looking towards the playoffs in several leagues. Nothing is wrapped up yet, but if I go .500 from here on out, playoffs are a virtual lock (knock on wood). It seams that every year I do great in the regular season, and then limp into the playoffs, and I want to change that.
I’m hoping to identify who will be hot come week 15 that presently is not, and my preliminary thoughts are to look at SOS.
For the following analysis, I am looking at rushing and passing SOS for a team as a whole, not by position. All data comes from nfl.com. The score following the team indicates the average points their opponents have allowed. For example – thus far, oakland’s opponents so far have allowed an average of 21.4 PPG on the ground.
All scoring based on 1 pt/ 10 yards, 6 for TD, -2 for fumble.
five games in, the following teams have benefited from an easier schedule, and a regression to the mean shows that their production may decline:
oak – 21.4
DAL – 19.1
WAS – 17.4
HOU – 16.6
TB – 16.4
These five teams have played against tougher schedules, and we should their production to increase:
CIN – 11.6
DET – 11.4
KC – 11.0
ATL – 11.3
GB – 10.7
Playoffs:
The following SOS are the best (based on week 15 and 16):
NE – 23.1
SD – 21.5
BAL – 21.3
HOU – 19.3
PIT – 18.6
The following SOS are the worst (based on week 15 and 16):
MIA – 7.8
CHI – 8.0
STL – 9.3
WAS – 9.5
NYJ – 9.9
Differential:
this is the difference between the average SOS for wk 1-5 and wk 15-16:
Best 5:
GB – 7.4
NE – 6.8
SD – 6.8
CLE – 6.3
BAL – 5.3
Worst 5:
WAS – (-7.9)
oak – (-7.4)
DAL – (-6.9)
MIA – (-5.8)
NYJ – (-5.1)
Conclusions:
Trading for guys like RBrown, CBenson, SJackson, CPortis, MBarberIII, TJones, LJordan, for a playoff push might not be a good idea. These guys are likely to face stiffer competition towards the end of the season than they have thus far.
These guys should be targeted, as they should have an easier go – LT, LMaroney, JLewis, WMcGahee, WParker. It may be possible to trade RBrown for LT at this point – based on this analysis, that would be a great idea. Maroney would be a great guy to target too – NE is at home in December vs Jets and Dolphins – wow.
I’m hoping to identify who will be hot come week 15 that presently is not, and my preliminary thoughts are to look at SOS.
For the following analysis, I am looking at rushing and passing SOS for a team as a whole, not by position. All data comes from nfl.com. The score following the team indicates the average points their opponents have allowed. For example – thus far, oakland’s opponents so far have allowed an average of 21.4 PPG on the ground.
All scoring based on 1 pt/ 10 yards, 6 for TD, -2 for fumble.
five games in, the following teams have benefited from an easier schedule, and a regression to the mean shows that their production may decline:
oak – 21.4
DAL – 19.1
WAS – 17.4
HOU – 16.6
TB – 16.4
These five teams have played against tougher schedules, and we should their production to increase:
CIN – 11.6
DET – 11.4
KC – 11.0
ATL – 11.3
GB – 10.7
Playoffs:
The following SOS are the best (based on week 15 and 16):
NE – 23.1
SD – 21.5
BAL – 21.3
HOU – 19.3
PIT – 18.6
The following SOS are the worst (based on week 15 and 16):
MIA – 7.8
CHI – 8.0
STL – 9.3
WAS – 9.5
NYJ – 9.9
Differential:
this is the difference between the average SOS for wk 1-5 and wk 15-16:
Best 5:
GB – 7.4
NE – 6.8
SD – 6.8
CLE – 6.3
BAL – 5.3
Worst 5:
WAS – (-7.9)
oak – (-7.4)
DAL – (-6.9)
MIA – (-5.8)
NYJ – (-5.1)
Conclusions:
Trading for guys like RBrown, CBenson, SJackson, CPortis, MBarberIII, TJones, LJordan, for a playoff push might not be a good idea. These guys are likely to face stiffer competition towards the end of the season than they have thus far.
These guys should be targeted, as they should have an easier go – LT, LMaroney, JLewis, WMcGahee, WParker. It may be possible to trade RBrown for LT at this point – based on this analysis, that would be a great idea. Maroney would be a great guy to target too – NE is at home in December vs Jets and Dolphins – wow.
