Titletown_Favres
Footballguy
PPR ...rb 0.5,,,WR 1.0
What WRs is RB Mathewa worth in dynasty?
What WRs is RB Mathewa worth in dynasty?
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Ryan Mathews Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Titletown_Favres
- Start date
Titletown_Favres
Footballguy
Sorry ---moving to correct forum
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
So whats the play here, the only real competition the Chargers brought in so far has been Woodhead. Unless I missed something this looks like a clear vote of confidence from the coaching staff. He's a year removed from being a top 7 redraft pick and coming off a horrible year.
Are we expecting more of the same or is he good value. I think he has high rb2 potential
Are we expecting more of the same or is he good value. I think he has high rb2 potential
Shutout
Footballguy
Better than what almost anyone on these boards will likely say because everyone loves to dog Matthews
But it's simple. If he avoids injury, he can easily be a top back in fantasy. He's done that. He has also been a crappy back due to injury.
I'm going to be one of those people that doesn't say I assume he will be hurt and say I think he ends up as the 17-20th best back this year with no surprise if it closer to 12th.
But it's simple. If he avoids injury, he can easily be a top back in fantasy. He's done that. He has also been a crappy back due to injury.
I'm going to be one of those people that doesn't say I assume he will be hurt and say I think he ends up as the 17-20th best back this year with no surprise if it closer to 12th.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I moved Roddy for Mthews and the 1.11 pick in 14 team dyno league early in the off season. I think that is a pretty fair deal for both parties considering Mathews' injury risk.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I'm with you. It's weird that he had the same break on both sides, and potentially concerning, but in general my risk discounts are among the smallest you'll find, so I still wind up being one of the highest staffers on Mathews (3rd highest at the moment). He's my 16th best dynasty back right now, and honestly, the deterioration of the Chargers is at least as concerning to me as the injury history. Still, he makes a strong rb2 as one of the few potential workhorses in the league, and there's a solid chance he winds up just crushing everyone's expectations.
EBF
Footballguy
Solid RB2. He's got a rare size/speed combo, but runs a bit stiff (not elusive) and takes too many hits as a result. Durability has always been an issue for him and that's unlikely to change.
I've bought him in a couple leagues this offseason. Not a huge fan necessarily, but he's a decent value right now.
25 years old. Former top 15 pick. 4.37 speed at 218 pounds. A year removed from a top 10 finish.
You could do a lot worse at his current price tag.
I've bought him in a couple leagues this offseason. Not a huge fan necessarily, but he's a decent value right now.
25 years old. Former top 15 pick. 4.37 speed at 218 pounds. A year removed from a top 10 finish.
You could do a lot worse at his current price tag.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
He's my 5th RB in a dynasty league sent him for 2.11 and a 2014 1st
Now have three 2014 1sts
Now have three 2014 1sts
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
I think his lack of scoring over his career (admittedly small sample size) is definitely a concern.
If he stays healthy, he's a lock for top 10, simple as that.
He has many haters because he was a 1st, 2nd round pick in Dyno startups last year and burned too many, myself included.
He's no more an injury risk than McFadden or Murray yet both have more perceived value.
Mathews is a 3 down back that catches well.
He has many haters because he was a 1st, 2nd round pick in Dyno startups last year and burned too many, myself included.
He's no more an injury risk than McFadden or Murray yet both have more perceived value.
Mathews is a 3 down back that catches well.
There wasn't even a 3 game stretch where he put up close to top 10 numbers. And for a 3 down back, he hardly played any 3rd downs in 2012. Explain that?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Anyone who thinks Mathews is getting passing down work over Woodhead in obvious passing situations is kidding themselves. Mathews is not a 3-down RB. And with his injury history, why would SD try to force him to be one, when they've got an elite receiving option (as far as RBBC guys go) in Woodhead?
cstu
Footballguy
I've never owned him in my life but I've seen enough of him now to say he's injury prone, not an every down back and fumbles too much. He's not worthless yet but he's not trusted by the team and probably won't be trusted anywhere else either when (yes, when) he leaves.
cstu
Footballguy
He's a very talented athlete but I believe he lacks the instincts to be a RB. I think he could be very successful somewhere that opens up massive holes, but even then he'll frustrate the coach with his lousy decision making. If someone wants to take a shot on him with a late 1st, I get it, but I don't like his future prospects.
Tau837
Footballguy
He had 2 fumbles in 223 touches last season. And going back to 2011, he had 5 fumbles that season, but only 1 in his last 108 touches. The Chargers completely overreacted to his first fumble last season, and it led them to completely mishandle his role and usage last year. He only played 51.6% of the offensive snaps in the games he played in last season. He should have played much more.
I disagree that he is not an every down back. There is no situation that requires him to be removed. He proved in 2011 that he can make a very strong contribution in the passing game, when he caught 50 passes for 455 yards (9.1 ypr), and his pass blocking is good enough. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the 16th best RB in the league last season, with positive ratings in all of their categories (running, receiving, blocking, penalties). His productivity (ypc, ypr) slipped last season, but there is no reason to think he won't rebound this year.
IMO Mathews' season last year was better than it looks at first glance. He was #22 in the league in yards after contact, and everyone with more except Deangelo Williams had a lot more carries than Mathews. He averaged 2.6 yards after contact last year, tied with Gore for #19 in the league. He was tied for #16 in the league in missed tackles (tackles broken or avoided). PFF ranked him as #11 in the league last season in its elusive rating, which attempts to measure a runner's success independent of blocking.
And, speaking of blocking, the Chargers' run blocking last season was awful. PFF ranked it at #28 in the league. Football Outsiders ranked it at #23 in the league. It should be a lot better with Fluker and Starks, and with Clary at guard. That should help Mathews a lot.
I still think he has good dynasty potential. I just finished a startup in which I drafted him as the 27th RB taken. I think that is excellent value.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Last season the Charges were a mess. The year before he was # 7 rb in ppr. I look to that year vs. the season where he came back from a broken collar bone ect. Mathews got less than 10 carries on third downs all year. The new coaching staff I don't believe will make that mistake.And to the guy that said he would be pulled for Danny Woodhead on 3rd downs that made me lol. Those two are not close.I'm sure Woodhead will spell in but he's not the 3rd down backAllot went wrong for Mathews last year however, he has shown he can be a top 10 back when healthy. Add new additions to the offense line and a more stable receiving core he should enjoy success similar to the 2011 season.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Happily cutting bait with him dynasty-wise. Let someone else have the joy of owning him.
If it bites me in the ###, so be it.
If it bites me in the ###, so be it.
yup, his stats can be good one game but he loves to be pulled out and is always crying to the sideline to come out. No heart at all.
Balco
Footballguy
I am riding this out. Drafted him # 1 in my rookie draft several years ago, and I will keep him until he is out of the nfl (which very well could be in 2 years).
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I have several friends who are close with Ryan. He has shown very little work ethic to anyone since turning pro.
Some of us thought his "party" style was a fad and there was a good chance he would grow out of it. We haven't noticed a change.
Personally I really like his natural abilities, and was willing to overlook (and not even mention it originally) his lack of due diligence for football, but we are 3 years in now.
He could blossom. But there are several other RBs I would take a shot on in the top 20 long before Ryan.
Some of us thought his "party" style was a fad and there was a good chance he would grow out of it. We haven't noticed a change.
Personally I really like his natural abilities, and was willing to overlook (and not even mention it originally) his lack of due diligence for football, but we are 3 years in now.
He could blossom. But there are several other RBs I would take a shot on in the top 20 long before Ryan.
Rookie year= 678 yards 4.3 YPC 7 TD, 22 rec 145 yards
2nd year = 1091 yards 4.9 YPC 6 TD, 50 rec 455 yards
3rd year = 707 yards 3.8 YPC 1 TD, 39 rec 252 yards
Digging deeper
rushes of 10+
Rookie year= 17 (158 carries)
2nd year= 35 (222 carries)
3rd year= 14 (184 carries)
games 1-8 of 2012: 95 carries at 4.4 YPC
games 9-16 of 2012: 89 carries at 3.2 YPC
Looking at the YPC, the TD, the lack of 10+ yard runs, and the splits of 1st/2nd half of 2012. It looks like 2012 is a clear outlier to his NFL career.
2nd year = 1091 yards 4.9 YPC 6 TD, 50 rec 455 yards
3rd year = 707 yards 3.8 YPC 1 TD, 39 rec 252 yards
Digging deeper
rushes of 10+
Rookie year= 17 (158 carries)
2nd year= 35 (222 carries)
3rd year= 14 (184 carries)
games 1-8 of 2012: 95 carries at 4.4 YPC
games 9-16 of 2012: 89 carries at 3.2 YPC
Looking at the YPC, the TD, the lack of 10+ yard runs, and the splits of 1st/2nd half of 2012. It looks like 2012 is a clear outlier to his NFL career.
Yitbos69
Footballguy
Anyone that would call Woodhead elite at anything is kidding themselves!
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Maybe throw on a few Patriots games and take another look. I've seen almost every game he's played, he's severely underrated. And on top of the receiving ability and production, he has an elite athletic profile as well.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Is elusiveness, measured by PFF, the most important factor in grading a RB now? Huh. Interesting.It has no bearing on what I was talking about, but where does Mathews fall here? Just wondering.
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No, I would suggest taking it with a grain of salt, but elite players don't finish last on that list. That is typically reserved for players of the ilk of a 32 year old Thomas Jones.ConnSKINS26 said:
Woodhead is nothing more than a potential 3rd down back. Which is fine for Mathews owners because he will easily surpass 40, maybe 50 receptions without third downs if he plays 16 games.
I have a hard time finding much meaningful or predictive information in that stat. Rice was near the bottom in 2011. Forster and Charles down there in 2012. I don't think they have quite figured out a way to assess the value of a RB.
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
Ya, this is the same system that rated LeGarrette Blount as the most elusive back in the league just two years ago. That alone is pretty indicative of the worthlessness of this PFF stat, and the fact that it does not project future success. It actually just muddies the water, adding a new level of confusion when analyzing talent.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I like Mathews this year. Drafting him about the 4-5 round as a #2
Stay healthy Ryan!!!!
Stay healthy Ryan!!!!
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
I own Mathews in both leagues I play in....his value is so low that it is not worth dealing him right now. I am personally hoping he starts the season well and I am able to deal him for an upgrade at other positions.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
A great drinking game is to take a drink every time Mathews waves to the sidelines to be pulled out of the game. It's guaranteed to get you drunk.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
He's the only bellcow back you're going to find available that late. I'm targeting him for sure. The talent is there. The offense can't possibly be worse. The only question is health. If he's healthy, he'll easily outperform his RB23 pricetag.
Faust
MVP
from NFL.com (nice props to the Footballguys "The Audible" podcast):
Ryan Mathews not viewed as Chargers' three-down RB
By Chris Wesseling
Around the League Writer
Ryan Mathews recently acknowledged that he's been "just an average back" since the San Diego Chargers traded up to select him at No. 12 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft.
He's gotten no argument from frustrated fantasy football leaguers or the Chargers' top beat writer.
Michael Gehlken said Tuesday on Footballguys.com's "The Audible" podcast that he had picked up on a "pretty clear sense" toward the end of last season that Mathews would never become the player the Chargers envisioned when they drafted him.
Former general manager A.J. Smith drafted Mathews to be a three-down workhorse, but "you can count the number of third-down receptions he's had in his career on two hands," Gehlken said. Norv Turner's coaching staff never trusted Mathews' pass protection or route running in high-leverage third-down or two-minute drill situations.
The new regime has talked up Mathews as a potential "bellcow back" who needs more help from the offensive line and a bigger role in the passing game.
The front office's actions suggest otherwise. With veteran Ronnie Brown already on the roster, the Bolts signed passing-down specialist Danny Woodhead away from the New England Patriots. Outside of Vincent Brown and perhaps Philip Rivers, Woodhead was the Chargers' most impressive player in spring practices.
"So Woodhead is going to be a big part of this thing," Gehlken said. "Woodhead is just better in a lot of areas than Ryan Mathews.
Mathews still has a chance to carve out a career as a solid early-down back if he can shake the injury bug, but the Bolts seem to have come to grips with his limitations. He's not going to be the perennial Pro Bowl player Smith once envisioned.
Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.
Ryan Mathews not viewed as Chargers' three-down RB
By Chris Wesseling
Around the League Writer
Ryan Mathews recently acknowledged that he's been "just an average back" since the San Diego Chargers traded up to select him at No. 12 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft.
He's gotten no argument from frustrated fantasy football leaguers or the Chargers' top beat writer.
Michael Gehlken said Tuesday on Footballguys.com's "The Audible" podcast that he had picked up on a "pretty clear sense" toward the end of last season that Mathews would never become the player the Chargers envisioned when they drafted him.
Former general manager A.J. Smith drafted Mathews to be a three-down workhorse, but "you can count the number of third-down receptions he's had in his career on two hands," Gehlken said. Norv Turner's coaching staff never trusted Mathews' pass protection or route running in high-leverage third-down or two-minute drill situations.
The new regime has talked up Mathews as a potential "bellcow back" who needs more help from the offensive line and a bigger role in the passing game.
The front office's actions suggest otherwise. With veteran Ronnie Brown already on the roster, the Bolts signed passing-down specialist Danny Woodhead away from the New England Patriots. Outside of Vincent Brown and perhaps Philip Rivers, Woodhead was the Chargers' most impressive player in spring practices.
"So Woodhead is going to be a big part of this thing," Gehlken said. "Woodhead is just better in a lot of areas than Ryan Mathews.
Mathews still has a chance to carve out a career as a solid early-down back if he can shake the injury bug, but the Bolts seem to have come to grips with his limitations. He's not going to be the perennial Pro Bowl player Smith once envisioned.
Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.
Faust
MVP
Rotoworld companion piece:
The Union-Tribune San Diego's Michael Gehlken reiterated that Danny Woodhead is going to be a "big part" of the Chargers' offense.
"So Woodhead is going to be a big part of this thing," Gehlken said. "Woodhead is just better in a lot of areas than Ryan Mathews." The new Chargers regime has talked up Mathews as a "bellcow back" capable of playing all three downs, but they wouldn't have brought in Woodhead and re-signed Ronnie Brown if they felt that comfortable with Mathews. Woodhead is purely a flex option in standard leagues, but his value jumps considerably in PPR formats.
Related: Ryan Mathews
Source: NFL.com
The Union-Tribune San Diego's Michael Gehlken reiterated that Danny Woodhead is going to be a "big part" of the Chargers' offense.
"So Woodhead is going to be a big part of this thing," Gehlken said. "Woodhead is just better in a lot of areas than Ryan Mathews." The new Chargers regime has talked up Mathews as a "bellcow back" capable of playing all three downs, but they wouldn't have brought in Woodhead and re-signed Ronnie Brown if they felt that comfortable with Mathews. Woodhead is purely a flex option in standard leagues, but his value jumps considerably in PPR formats.
Related: Ryan Mathews
Source: NFL.com
EBF
Footballguy
Really?
That's a huge stretch Rotoworld.
Having said that, it would be nice if this guy would get serious. This isn't the first time I've heard rumblings about his work ethic and desire.
