Saints Backfield Poll (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

This is the hardest spot for me to project this season. Both guys show flashes of brilliance. What do you guys think? Is anyone targeting them both?

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Having both is ideal, but after looking at Pierre Thomas' numbers last season,

and watching him play.... he's the one to target, imo.

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Saints | Pierre Thomas best kept secret in the league? (Sun Jun 21, 06:45 PM) - Jeff Duncan, from the New Orleans Times-Picayune, writes - Reggie Bush led the NFL with nine touchdowns in the first seven games last season, but did you know Thomas scored nine touchdowns in the final six games once he assumed the lead-back role in the offense? He might be the best-kept secret in the league.

Our View: Subscribers to our newsletter know that we've been talking about Pierre Thomas for quite some time now. Originally known as "the guy who kept Rashard Mendenhall on the bench in college" should now be a fantasy household name as we enter the 2009 season. Pro rating his five games as a starter, Thomas was on pace for 1,238 yards rushing, 48 receptions, 467 yards receiving and 26 touchdowns! Now we don't expect him to match those numbers, but around 1,000 yards rushing with double digit touchdowns is not out of the question. Grab Thomas in every league you can before your leaguemates get wise to the situation in New Orleans.

.

 

[Manster]

obviously Reggie is good in ppr. seems like Thomas is the between the tackles guy. i'll prolly stay away from both, unless the price is right, which suspect it wont be.

anyone know what Thomas' ADP is in mocks? seems like the word is out, and he might be a bit overvalued. no?

 

[supermark_28]

obviously Reggie is good in ppr. seems like Thomas is the between the tackles guy. i'll prolly stay away from both, unless the price is right, which suspect it wont be.

anyone know what Thomas' ADP is in mocks? seems like the word is out, and he might be a bit overvalued. no?

Starts around post # 34. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...472154&st=0

 

[Blackjacks]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.

Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.

Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards109 receptions21 touchdownsAdjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

 

[Moniker]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards109 receptions21 touchdownsAdjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

No.He was on pace for:199 carries for 672 yards and 4.5 TD96 receptions for 836 yards and 6.8 TDWhile your yards and receptions are over but close, your TDs are greatly exaggerated.With Thomas taking some rushing yards and Shockey taking some receptions I would have to vote for Pierre Thomas by a mile.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards109 receptions21 touchdownsAdjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

This is what I don't get about these boards. Some dork last week was trying to tell me that the Saints would be cutting Bush due to the fact he averaged under 4 YPC. I guess these boards are where all those NFL caliber coachs and GMs who can't find jobs come for solitude.

 

[jojoh07]

Bush > p. thomas

guys is a ppr monster.

 

[awesomeness]

targetting Pierre Thomas, staying far away from Reggie Bush.

 

[Traders2001]

Reggie Bush reminds me of Eric MtCalf .

He is listed as a RB , but actually is nt .

He s kind of your special player that you lineup in the backfield but is more dangerous getting the ball on the move .

 

[Englishteacher]

Pierre Thomas is exactly the kind of player that could win you your fantasy league this year. If you sincerely doubt Bush's ability to stay healthy, then draft Thomas high. A RB who doesn't share a workload in New Orleans (the depth behind Bush and Thomas is atrocious) has already proven to be a fantasy monster.

 

[Tanner9919]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.

Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.

Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.

Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards

109 receptions

21 touchdowns

Adjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

Am I missing something about Reggie Bush? only played a full 16-game schedule once in his 3 years in the NFL. Missed 10 games over the past two seasons

has never carried the ball more than 157 times in single season, including his rookie year..has never avg'd more than 3.8 ypc in any season.lifetime 3.7 avg..

career avg 40.8 rush ypg.. 12 rush tds over the course of 3 seasons, 4/year avg..in fact, rush tds have steadily declined since rookie season(6) to 2007(4) to last season(2)..

avg's 71 rec's/yr, 2.6 rec td/yr, 533 rec yards/yr..

Is he not the most overrated player this side of Steven Jackson?!

over the past 3 seasons, N.O. ran the 445 times ( 2008), 392(2007), 472(2006)...an avg of 436 att/yr..

given Bush's inability to carry the ball more than 157 times in any season combined with his putrid 139 att/yr avg, it leaves

some 297 carries on the table, perhaps a lot more...who will get the vast majority of those carries?

Pierre Thomas..

consider the injuries to Colston et al, and you can make a point for N.O. moving Bush to a more hybrid-type role, i.e., more receptions, more gadget plays, less pure running plays..

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards109 receptions21 touchdownsAdjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc :X

No.He was on pace for:199 carries for 672 yards and 4.5 TD96 receptions for 836 yards and 6.8 TDWhile your yards and receptions are over but close, your TDs are greatly exaggerated.With Thomas taking some rushing yards and Shockey taking some receptions I would have to vote for Pierre Thomas by a mile.

Bush got hurt early in week 7. In week's 1-6 he had 600yds, 41 receptions, and 8 TDs (you're forgetting punt returns). That projects out to 1600 yards, 109 receptions, and 21 TDs using....math

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Am I missing something about Reggie Bush?

only played a full 16-game schedule once in his 3 years in the NFL. Missed 10 games over the past two seasons :X

has never carried the ball more than 157 times in single season, including his rookie year..has never avg'd more than 3.8 ypc in any season.lifetime 3.7 avg..

career avg 40.8 rush ypg.. 12 rush tds over the course of 3 seasons, 4/year avg..in fact, rush tds have steadily declined since rookie season(6) to 2007(4) to last season(2)..

avg's 71 rec's/yr, 2.6 rec td/yr, 533 rec yards/yr..

Is he not the most overrated player this side of Steven Jackson?!

over the past 3 seasons, N.O. ran the 445 times ( 2008), 392(2007), 472(2006)...an avg of 436 att/yr..

given Bush's inability to carry the ball more than 157 times in any season combined with his putrid 139 att/yr avg, it leaves

some 297 carries on the table, perhaps a lot more...who will get the vast majority of those carries?

Pierre Thomas..

consider the injuries to Colston et al, and you can make a point for N.O. moving Bush to a more hybrid-type role, i.e., more receptions, more gadget plays, less pure running plays..

Clearly. You see, all you talked about there was his rushing stats. Bush does this other weird thing called "receiving" where he actually gets even more points than he does rushing.Look, I get that Bush hasn't shown he can stay healthy, but let's not downplay how much of a monster he was in fantasy last year before he got hurt. Remember how good DeAngelo Williams was last year? Bush before he got hurt was MASSIVELY outscoring that production that we saw from Williams.

I'm not high on Bush because I don't necessarily believe in his ability to stay healthy either, and am not a big fan of his lack of consistency, but the guy's situation is eerily similar to Andre Johnson.

Andre Johnson underachieved for his first few years in the league. Then, in 2007 things finally clicked for him and he was an absolute fantasy monster, but this was hidden from people because he got hurt in week 9 of 2007. In 2008 people clamored that he had never put together a great season but the savvy saw that putting together a great season is exactly what he was doing in 2007 before getting hurt. In 2008, they got a 1600 yard WR at a bargain price.

Reggie Bush underachieved his first few years in the league. In 2008, things finally clicked for him and he was an absolute fantasy monster, but this was hidden from people because he got hurt in week 7 of 2008. In 2009... ?

Again, I'm not high on Bush but the way people are writing off a guy that was completely DOMINATING last year (from a fantasy standpoint) prior to getting hurt is absurd. People really have it out for the guy. I've never seen a guy be so good for just under half a season and be hated so much.

 

[Moniker]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards109 receptions21 touchdownsAdjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

No.He was on pace for:199 carries for 672 yards and 4.5 TD96 receptions for 836 yards and 6.8 TDWhile your yards and receptions are over but close, your TDs are greatly exaggerated.With Thomas taking some rushing yards and Shockey taking some receptions I would have to vote for Pierre Thomas by a mile.

Bush got hurt early in week 7. In week's 1-6 he had 600yds, 41 receptions, and 8 TDs (you're forgetting punt returns). That projects out to 1600 yards, 109 receptions, and 21 TDs using....math

He was hurt at the end of the first half and there is no reason to predict punt return TDs because he's not going to get 7-8 punt return TDs.Pierre Thomas is the one to target.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.

Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.

Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.

Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards

109 receptions

21 touchdowns

Adjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

Am I missing something about Reggie Bush? only played a full 16-game schedule once in his 3 years in the NFL. Missed 10 games over the past two seasons

has never carried the ball more than 157 times in single season, including his rookie year..has never avg'd more than 3.8 ypc in any season.lifetime 3.7 avg..

career avg 40.8 rush ypg.. 12 rush tds over the course of 3 seasons, 4/year avg..in fact, rush tds have steadily declined since rookie season(6) to 2007(4) to last season(2)..

avg's 71 rec's/yr, 2.6 rec td/yr, 533 rec yards/yr..

Is he not the most overrated player this side of Steven Jackson?!

over the past 3 seasons, N.O. ran the 445 times ( 2008), 392(2007), 472(2006)...an avg of 436 att/yr..

given Bush's inability to carry the ball more than 157 times in any season combined with his putrid 139 att/yr avg, it leaves

some 297 carries on the table, perhaps a lot more...who will get the vast majority of those carries?

Pierre Thomas..

consider the injuries to Colston et al, and you can make a point for N.O. moving Bush to a more hybrid-type role, i.e., more receptions, more gadget plays, less pure running plays..

The real numbers are.....

3.8 yards per carry

800+ total yards

10 games played

 

[TheFanatic]

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards109 receptions21 touchdownsAdjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

This is what I don't get about these boards. Some dork last week was trying to tell me that the Saints would be cutting Bush due to the fact he averaged under 4 YPC. I guess these boards are where all those NFL caliber coachs and GMs who can't find jobs come for solitude.

What cracks me up is FFB owners that think that Reggie being a monster PPR guy makes him valuable to an NFL team. Bush is a horrible RB. He catches the ball well and has a nose for the endzone but in between the tackles where it counts he doesn't get it done. When he comes to the Saints wanting $15-20 million in guaranteed money the guy is going to get shown the door. He is a gimmick player but not worth the money he will undoubtedly ask for. Also, NFL coaches take a dim view of guys that cannot stay on the field. Reggie can't do that. NFL Production <> FFB Production and vice versa.A guy like Troy Aikman was a monster NFL QB but horrendous FFB QBTravis Henry tore it up for the Bills and was sent packing. Some would say they sent him packing because they had Willis McGahee who tore it up, but they sent him packing too.

 

[TheFanatic]

The real numbers are.....

3.8 yards per carry

800+ total yards

10 games played

This is a telling stat to include. There are not that many other players where we need to predict the number of games the player will play in 2009. The fact of the matter is that there are some Reggie lovers out there like Blackjacks who are going to grab Reggie at least one round before the more moderate owners. The moderate owners grab a stud WR in the round Bush is taken and then take Pierre Thomas a round or two later. I'll take the WR and Thomas all day long over Reggie.

Take all this with a grain of salt as I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum with this guy. I'm not even a moderate owner in terms of my opinion of him. The guy is just someone I avoid due to his sheer lack of reliability and lack of solid RB skills which, no matter how well he catches the ball, he is still a RB.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Here's what I had to say in the Bush spotlight:

---------------------------------------

Here's something to chew on. Completely forget about fantasy points in any format for just a minute. You are an NFL head coach, and have two players at the same position. Over the past three years (since Bush has been in the league - a very significant sample size) one guy gives you:

PER RUSH

4.9 yards, .33 first downs (1 FD every 3 rushes), .056 TDs (1 TD per 18 rushes)

and PER TARGET

.78 receptions, 6.8 yards, .38 first downs (1 FD every 2.7 targets), .063 TDs (1 TD every 16 targets)

The OTHER guy gives you:

3.7 yards, .19 first downs (1 FD every 5 rushes), .029 TDs (1 TD per 35 rushes)

and PER TARGET

.73 receptions, 5.5 yards, .27 first downs (1 FD every 3.7 targets), .027 TDs (1 TD every 37 targets)

Forget hype, forget draft position. Who you gonna give the ball to? Oh, and just for grins consider that the guy who HASN'T produced in the past and relies almost exclusively on quickness is coming off of a significant knee surgery.

Everybody always claims Bush has a unique skillset and is a big play waiting to happen. But the FACTS are, even when you talk about receiving - Bush's so-called specialty, he relies on MASSIVE amounts of opportunity to generate his numbers. When you break things out and compare apples to apples, Thomas has actually done significantly more with each opportunity as a receiver as well as a runner. Because of his draft position, and the investment in him, the team has been forcing the ball to Bush despite his lack of production. Bush is a good returner. He won't earn his paycheck there, but he will at least help the team. The team has known this for a while, but they almost had to keep trying to make Bush something he is not. But they can't do it forever, and I believe we'll see the big changeover this year. We would have seen it LAST year if he hadn't gotten injured.

---------------------------------

To the guys complaining about the 3.8 reference: No, it doesn't matter for fantasy purposes as long as the opportunities are there. But if you actually THINK about it for a second you realize that it DOES matter because it generally leads to a reduction in the opportunities that in the past gave him those total numbers.

Bush's "specialness" everybody is always blabbing about is almost exclusively based on college performance. There has been very little real evidence to support it in the NFL, and he's had plenty of time to get it done.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I still think Reggie will be the starting rb when the season begins. I know Thomas looked great in the second half but Reggie looked better in the first half.

Reggie was on pace to have a monster year before he got hurt.

Reggie fits that offense perfectly.

monster ? 3.8 yards per carry and 800+ total yards in 10 games played, not quite monster.

Thomas looked MUCH better in the 2nd half than Reggie did in his 10 games, imo.

Prior to getting hurt Bush was on pace for:1600 total yards

109 receptions

21 touchdowns

Adjust accordingly for the negative points your league gives him for his 3.8ypc

Am I missing something about Reggie Bush? only played a full 16-game schedule once in his 3 years in the NFL. Missed 10 games over the past two seasons

has never carried the ball more than 157 times in single season, including his rookie year..has never avg'd more than 3.8 ypc in any season.lifetime 3.7 avg..

career avg 40.8 rush ypg.. 12 rush tds over the course of 3 seasons, 4/year avg..in fact, rush tds have steadily declined since rookie season(6) to 2007(4) to last season(2)..

avg's 71 rec's/yr, 2.6 rec td/yr, 533 rec yards/yr..

Is he not the most overrated player this side of Steven Jackson?!

over the past 3 seasons, N.O. ran the 445 times ( 2008), 392(2007), 472(2006)...an avg of 436 att/yr..

given Bush's inability to carry the ball more than 157 times in any season combined with his putrid 139 att/yr avg, it leaves

some 297 carries on the table, perhaps a lot more...who will get the vast majority of those carries?

Pierre Thomas..

consider the injuries to Colston et al, and you can make a point for N.O. moving Bush to a more hybrid-type role, i.e., more receptions, more gadget plays, less pure running plays..

The real numbers are.....

3.8 yards per carry

800+ total yards

10 games played

The quote you were responding to said:"Bush was on pace to have a monster season BEFORE his injury".

He got injured in week 7. How, pray tell, did he play 10 games in weeks 1-6?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Here's what I had to say in the Bush spotlight:---------------------------------------Here's something to chew on. Completely forget about fantasy points in any format for just a minute. You are an NFL head coach, and have two players at the same position. Over the past three years (since Bush has been in the league - a very significant sample size) one guy gives youER RUSH4.9 yards, .33 first downs (1 FD every 3 rushes), .056 TDs (1 TD per 18 rushes)and PER TARGET.78 receptions, 6.8 yards, .38 first downs (1 FD every 2.7 targets), .063 TDs (1 TD every 16 targets)The OTHER guy gives you:3.7 yards, .19 first downs (1 FD every 5 rushes), .029 TDs (1 TD per 35 rushes)and PER TARGET.73 receptions, 5.5 yards, .27 first downs (1 FD every 3.7 targets), .027 TDs (1 TD every 37 targets)Forget hype, forget draft position. Who you gonna give the ball to? Oh, and just for grins consider that the guy who HASN'T produced in the past and relies almost exclusively on quickness is coming off of a significant knee surgery.Everybody always claims Bush has a unique skillset and is a big play waiting to happen. But the FACTS are, even when you talk about receiving - Bush's so-called specialty, he relies on MASSIVE amounts of opportunity to generate his numbers. When you break things out and compare apples to apples, Thomas has actually done significantly more with each opportunity as a receiver as well as a runner. Because of his draft position, and the investment in him, the team has been forcing the ball to Bush despite his lack of production. Bush is a good returner. He won't earn his paycheck there, but he will at least help the team. The team has known this for a while, but they almost had to keep trying to make Bush something he is not. But they can't do it forever, and I believe we'll see the big changeover this year. We would have seen it LAST year if he hadn't gotten injured.---------------------------------To the guys complaining about the 3.8 reference: No, it doesn't matter for fantasy purposes as long as the opportunities are there. But if you actually THINK about it for a second you realize that it DOES matter because it generally leads to a reduction in the opportunities that in the past gave him those total numbers.Bush's "specialness" everybody is always blabbing about is almost exclusively based on college performance. There has been very little real evidence to support it in the NFL, and he's had plenty of time to get it done.

No one here is arguing about how good of an NFL player Bush is or he isn't. We're talking about fantasy. Bush has been productive enough that given all the things around him he's not going to end up on the backburner, at least not this season. He's the guy that sells the Saints jerseys, he's the guy getting the huge paycheck, he's the guy on the ESPN promos advertising the Saints' Sunday night game, and he's Sean Payton's little toy. Your example can be applied to a dozen other players without the result being what it seems like it would logically imply. When Aaron Stecker had the featured roll for the Saints at the end of the 2007 season he outproduced both what Bush AND Thomas did in the same role, and where was he in 2008?I have no doubt that Pierre will take significant touches from Bush, but someone has always been there to do that in New Orleans. The bottom line though is that regardless of his NFL talent level, Bush will be getting significant touches in a very opportunistic role on a very good Saints offense.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Here's what I had to say in the Bush spotlight:---------------------------------------Here's something to chew on. Completely forget about fantasy points in any format for just a minute. You are an NFL head coach, and have two players at the same position. Over the past three years (since Bush has been in the league - a very significant sample size) one guy gives youER RUSH4.9 yards, .33 first downs (1 FD every 3 rushes), .056 TDs (1 TD per 18 rushes)and PER TARGET.78 receptions, 6.8 yards, .38 first downs (1 FD every 2.7 targets), .063 TDs (1 TD every 16 targets)The OTHER guy gives you:3.7 yards, .19 first downs (1 FD every 5 rushes), .029 TDs (1 TD per 35 rushes)and PER TARGET.73 receptions, 5.5 yards, .27 first downs (1 FD every 3.7 targets), .027 TDs (1 TD every 37 targets)Forget hype, forget draft position. Who you gonna give the ball to? Oh, and just for grins consider that the guy who HASN'T produced in the past and relies almost exclusively on quickness is coming off of a significant knee surgery.Everybody always claims Bush has a unique skillset and is a big play waiting to happen. But the FACTS are, even when you talk about receiving - Bush's so-called specialty, he relies on MASSIVE amounts of opportunity to generate his numbers. When you break things out and compare apples to apples, Thomas has actually done significantly more with each opportunity as a receiver as well as a runner. Because of his draft position, and the investment in him, the team has been forcing the ball to Bush despite his lack of production. Bush is a good returner. He won't earn his paycheck there, but he will at least help the team. The team has known this for a while, but they almost had to keep trying to make Bush something he is not. But they can't do it forever, and I believe we'll see the big changeover this year. We would have seen it LAST year if he hadn't gotten injured.---------------------------------To the guys complaining about the 3.8 reference: No, it doesn't matter for fantasy purposes as long as the opportunities are there. But if you actually THINK about it for a second you realize that it DOES matter because it generally leads to a reduction in the opportunities that in the past gave him those total numbers.Bush's "specialness" everybody is always blabbing about is almost exclusively based on college performance. There has been very little real evidence to support it in the NFL, and he's had plenty of time to get it done.

No one here is arguing about how good of an NFL player Bush is or he isn't. We're talking about fantasy. Bush has been productive enough that given all the things around him he's not going to end up on the backburner, at least not this season. He's the guy that sells the Saints jerseys, he's the guy getting the huge paycheck, he's the guy on the ESPN promos advertising the Saints' Sunday night game, and he's Sean Payton's little toy. Your example can be applied to a dozen other players without the result being what it seems like it would logically imply. When Aaron Stecker had the featured roll for the Saints at the end of the 2007 season he outproduced both what Bush AND Thomas did in the same role, and where was he in 2008?I have no doubt that Pierre will take significant touches from Bush, but someone has always been there to do that in New Orleans. The bottom line though is that regardless of his NFL talent level, Bush will be getting significant touches in a very opportunistic role on a very good Saints offense.

Actually, TONS of people argue on a daily basis that Bush is a "special" player, and he really isn't. You may not be one of them, but that argument most certainly gets made.And as I said before, all the stuff you are talking about EVENTUALLY gives way to talent. How long does a team in playoff contention force the ball to an inferior player because of the money and draft position? Peter Warrick was an all-universe hype monster at one point until the team finally conceded he wasn't actually very good. Curtis Enis and William Green made a lot of money and sold a lot of Jerseys at one point too. Bush may not be quite as bad as those guys (and he definitely has more hype), but the point is that their teams carried them and FEATURED them for a couple of years because they almost had to. Then they said enough is enough, and either dumped them or made them backups (which Bush now is).Stecker is a great example though, and I'm glad you brought him up. In similar situations, Stecker did about as well (slightly better) than Bush, but not as well as Thomas (he ran for 3.9 average in 2007). That just goes to show you that the system IS great and will support big numbers. The only question is how those numbers get distributed. At some point, management will give more of them to the guy who is actually producing. I'm guessing sooner rather than later.

 

[ookook]

Sorry for the hijack, but this thread reinforces my belief that PPR is bad for FF in how it distorts the value of players WITHIN positions such as RB.

Equating for value across positions is best served by supply-and-demand (e.g., start 4 WRs) or by making yardage for WRs return higher values (e.g., .15 per yard for WRs).

If I had to pick a starting RB for a real NFL team, Reggie Bush would be WAY down the list and yet he goes early in PPR drafts. Kinda dumb to me.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Sorry for the hijack, but this thread reinforces my belief that PPR is bad for FF in how it distorts the value of players WITHIN positions such as RB. Equating for value across positions is best served by supply-and-demand (e.g., start 4 WRs) or by making yardage for WRs return higher values (e.g., .15 per yard for WRs).If I had to pick a starting RB for a real NFL team, Reggie Bush would be WAY down the list and yet he goes early in PPR drafts. Kinda dumb to me.

Could not agree more. If Larry Centers were around today, he'd be a fantasy stud, which would be a travesty.

 

[VTjkru]

Sorry for the hijack, but this thread reinforces my belief that PPR is bad for FF in how it distorts the value of players WITHIN positions such as RB. Equating for value across positions is best served by supply-and-demand (e.g., start 4 WRs) or by making yardage for WRs return higher values (e.g., .15 per yard for WRs).If I had to pick a starting RB for a real NFL team, Reggie Bush would be WAY down the list and yet he goes early in PPR drafts. Kinda dumb to me.

 

[TheFanatic]

Sorry for the hijack, but this thread reinforces my belief that PPR is bad for FF in how it distorts the value of players WITHIN positions such as RB. Equating for value across positions is best served by supply-and-demand (e.g., start 4 WRs) or by making yardage for WRs return higher values (e.g., .15 per yard for WRs).If I had to pick a starting RB for a real NFL team, Reggie Bush would be WAY down the list and yet he goes early in PPR drafts. Kinda dumb to me.

I enjoy PPR leagues but you have to know going in that a guy who is mediocre in the NFL may be much better on a PPR league. That being said, I'm a big fan of the .5 PPR for RB's, 1.0 for WR's and 1.5 for TE's. I feel it sort of levels the playing field across all three positions. RB's that can catch the ball out of the backfield are an asset to a team. This rewards that but not quite as much as the PPR. I've never been able to convince anyone in the leagues I'm in to use this system but I've always wanted to play it...

 

[ookook]

Again sorry for hijack.

But why reward receptions, rather than yards? Do receptions for 1 yard really help the team more than a run for 9 yards?

And why apply it to RBs at all?

Why not .10/yd for RB receiving yards, .15 for WR receving yards, and .20 for TE? This would not perturb the ranking of RBs at all.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Here's what I had to say in the Bush spotlight:---------------------------------------Here's something to chew on. Completely forget about fantasy points in any format for just a minute. You are an NFL head coach, and have two players at the same position. Over the past three years (since Bush has been in the league - a very significant sample size) one guy gives youER RUSH4.9 yards, .33 first downs (1 FD every 3 rushes), .056 TDs (1 TD per 18 rushes)and PER TARGET.78 receptions, 6.8 yards, .38 first downs (1 FD every 2.7 targets), .063 TDs (1 TD every 16 targets)The OTHER guy gives you:3.7 yards, .19 first downs (1 FD every 5 rushes), .029 TDs (1 TD per 35 rushes)and PER TARGET.73 receptions, 5.5 yards, .27 first downs (1 FD every 3.7 targets), .027 TDs (1 TD every 37 targets)Forget hype, forget draft position. Who you gonna give the ball to? Oh, and just for grins consider that the guy who HASN'T produced in the past and relies almost exclusively on quickness is coming off of a significant knee surgery.Everybody always claims Bush has a unique skillset and is a big play waiting to happen. But the FACTS are, even when you talk about receiving - Bush's so-called specialty, he relies on MASSIVE amounts of opportunity to generate his numbers. When you break things out and compare apples to apples, Thomas has actually done significantly more with each opportunity as a receiver as well as a runner. Because of his draft position, and the investment in him, the team has been forcing the ball to Bush despite his lack of production. Bush is a good returner. He won't earn his paycheck there, but he will at least help the team. The team has known this for a while, but they almost had to keep trying to make Bush something he is not. But they can't do it forever, and I believe we'll see the big changeover this year. We would have seen it LAST year if he hadn't gotten injured.---------------------------------To the guys complaining about the 3.8 reference: No, it doesn't matter for fantasy purposes as long as the opportunities are there. But if you actually THINK about it for a second you realize that it DOES matter because it generally leads to a reduction in the opportunities that in the past gave him those total numbers.Bush's "specialness" everybody is always blabbing about is almost exclusively based on college performance. There has been very little real evidence to support it in the NFL, and he's had plenty of time to get it done.

No one here is arguing about how good of an NFL player Bush is or he isn't. We're talking about fantasy. Bush has been productive enough that given all the things around him he's not going to end up on the backburner, at least not this season. He's the guy that sells the Saints jerseys, he's the guy getting the huge paycheck, he's the guy on the ESPN promos advertising the Saints' Sunday night game, and he's Sean Payton's little toy. Your example can be applied to a dozen other players without the result being what it seems like it would logically imply. When Aaron Stecker had the featured roll for the Saints at the end of the 2007 season he outproduced both what Bush AND Thomas did in the same role, and where was he in 2008?I have no doubt that Pierre will take significant touches from Bush, but someone has always been there to do that in New Orleans. The bottom line though is that regardless of his NFL talent level, Bush will be getting significant touches in a very opportunistic role on a very good Saints offense.

I see Bush stealing some carries from Pierre, but Pierre is the workhorse in the backfield who has significantly more power than Bush.I view Bush's role going forward as more of a COP back with added "gadget" featureswhile Pierre Thomas has shown he is very comfortable and successful as a "carry the load" type of RB, something that New Orleans desperately needs.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Sorry for the hijack, but this thread reinforces my belief that PPR is bad for FF in how it distorts the value of players WITHIN positions such as RB. Equating for value across positions is best served by supply-and-demand (e.g., start 4 WRs) or by making yardage for WRs return higher values (e.g., .15 per yard for WRs).If I had to pick a starting RB for a real NFL team, Reggie Bush would be WAY down the list and yet he goes early in PPR drafts. Kinda dumb to me.

I enjoy PPR leagues but you have to know going in that a guy who is mediocre in the NFL may be much better on a PPR league. That being said, I'm a big fan of the .5 PPR for RB's, 1.0 for WR's and 1.5 for TE's. I feel it sort of levels the playing field across all three positions. RB's that can catch the ball out of the backfield are an asset to a team. This rewards that but not quite as much as the PPR. I've never been able to convince anyone in the leagues I'm in to use this system but I've always wanted to play it...

That's much better than standard 1 PPR, but it still doesn't make sense to me. What's more valuable to a team, 10 catches (and 3 incompletions) for 40 yards (like a Reggie Bush stat line ) or 10 rushes for 50 yards (like a Thomas stat line )? Even in a 1/2 PPR, the former is scored much higher, but I think the latter is much more valuable to the team. It's about moving the football.

 

[TheFanatic]

Sorry for the hijack, but this thread reinforces my belief that PPR is bad for FF in how it distorts the value of players WITHIN positions such as RB. Equating for value across positions is best served by supply-and-demand (e.g., start 4 WRs) or by making yardage for WRs return higher values (e.g., .15 per yard for WRs).If I had to pick a starting RB for a real NFL team, Reggie Bush would be WAY down the list and yet he goes early in PPR drafts. Kinda dumb to me.

I enjoy PPR leagues but you have to know going in that a guy who is mediocre in the NFL may be much better on a PPR league. That being said, I'm a big fan of the .5 PPR for RB's, 1.0 for WR's and 1.5 for TE's. I feel it sort of levels the playing field across all three positions. RB's that can catch the ball out of the backfield are an asset to a team. This rewards that but not quite as much as the PPR. I've never been able to convince anyone in the leagues I'm in to use this system but I've always wanted to play it...

That's much better than standard 1 PPR, but it still doesn't make sense to me. What's more valuable to a team, 10 catches (and 3 incompletions) for 40 yards (like a Reggie Bush stat line ) or 10 rushes for 50 yards (like a Thomas stat line )? Even in a 1/2 PPR, the former is scored much higher, but I think the latter is much more valuable to the team. It's about moving the football.

I just like the PPR leagues because they are more high scoring. Also less sporadic scoring. A guy may have 1 catch for 80 yards 1 week for 9 and then 4 catches for 50 yards the next week for 9 again. In terms of replicating the NFL it's bogus but I like it none the less

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I see Bush stealing some carries from Pierre, but Pierre is the workhorse in the backfield

who has significantly more power than Bush.

I view Bush's role going forward as more of a COP back with added "gadget" features

while Pierre Thomas has shown he is very comfortable and successful as a "carry the load" type of RB,

something that New Orleans desperately needs.

I think you're kidding yourself if you think anyone is going to be a workhorse, "carry the load" RB in the Saints offense.Even with Bush out of the lineup last year Pierre only carried more than 16 times once.

 

[moderated]

Then they said enough is enough, and either dumped them or made them backups (which Bush now is).

The bolded is pure speculation, not fact as it seems to be implied, we have no idea yet what Bush's role will be this year. He's never been in the backfield without McAllister for any stretch of games.

PT has a 6 game sample against the worst defenses in the NFL, statistically speaking it's basically irrelevant.

 

[psychobillies]

I think PT is a very good back that can be very successful in the NFL, but some of you are selling Bush short. He is an extremely dangerous weapon from the RB position. I see all the stats that are quoted, and I see why you have come to some of these conclusions, but I think you are neglecting the fact that defenses are more scared of Bush than Thomas. They commit to stopping him every time he is in the backfield much more so than when PT is back there. They game plan for Bush all week. D coordinators know that Bush can break their backs with any given play, rushing or receiving.

I watch every game, and I can tell you that Bush is a very good running back. If he stays healthy, big if I know, he will have a monster season from the running back position.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I think PT is a very good back that can be very successful in the NFL, but some of you are selling Bush short. He is an extremely dangerous weapon from the RB position. I see all the stats that are quoted, and I see why you have come to some of these conclusions, but I think you are neglecting the fact that defenses are more scared of Bush than Thomas. They commit to stopping him every time he is in the backfield much more so than when PT is back there. They game plan for Bush all week. D coordinators know that Bush can break their backs with any given play, rushing or receiving.

I watch every game, and I can tell you that Bush is a very good running back. If he stays healthy, big if I know, he will have a monster season from the running back position.

Excellent posting, and a point I've tried to get through to the stubborn!! Too many on these boards don't watch the games and only base judgments on stats. You'd be hard pressed to find any Saints fan on these boards who doesn't want Reggie on the team. To say that the team won't resign him is stupid.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Then they said enough is enough, and either dumped them or made them backups (which Bush now is).

PT has a 6 game sample against the worst defenses in the NFL, statistically speaking it's basically irrelevant.

I was looking at each player's CAREER numbers. When you compare opportunity to opportunity for both passing and receiving over BOTH of the entire careers, Thomas looks far far better than Bush. Nothing irrelevant about that.Thomas also happens to look far far better than Bush when you just watch the games, but that's obviously just my opinion. I drafted Bush as rookie, held him for a couple of years and dumped him when he still had some value going into the beginning of last year. I watched quite a few Saints games when I could, and at first I held out hope, but the more I looked at him, I just came to the conclusion that Bush was just NOT as advertised. He doesn't even really do the things that he is KNOWN for all that well (like make people miss and get open down the field), and he is absolutely horrible at all of the OTHER things. He catches a lot of passes, and does seem to have decent hands. But even when he DOES catch the ball, he doesn't seem to be able to evade anyone. If he is all alone, he can take it to the house, but you can say the same for 15 guys on every NFL team.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I think PT is a very good back that can be very successful in the NFL, but some of you are selling Bush short. He is an extremely dangerous weapon from the RB position. I see all the stats that are quoted, and I see why you have come to some of these conclusions, but I think you are neglecting the fact that defenses are more scared of Bush than Thomas. They commit to stopping him every time he is in the backfield much more so than when PT is back there. They game plan for Bush all week. D coordinators know that Bush can break their backs with any given play, rushing or receiving.

I watch every game, and I can tell you that Bush is a very good running back. If he stays healthy, big if I know, he will have a monster season from the running back position.

Excellent posting, and a point I've tried to get through to the stubborn!! Too many on these boards don't watch the games and only base judgments on stats. You'd be hard pressed to find any Saints fan on these boards who doesn't want Reggie on the team. To say that the team won't resign him is stupid.

Both the stats and my own eyes tell me the same thing.As far as opposing defenses go, that makes no sense to me whatsoever. Opposing teams may have initially game planned for Bush based on expectation (reputation) alone. But since then, there has been no reason to game plan or do anything special for Bush. He DOESN'T break teams backs. The rest of the passing game does. More often than not, teams are better off having the ball get to Bush so the first nearby tackler can thrown him down well before the sticks. That actually could explain why he gets so many passes thrown his way. He's open, but teams aren't that worried about him. They certainly aren't worried about him running, so they just sit back and wait for the underneath pass.

 

[Traders2001]

Bush might be dangerous from the RB position , but not dangerous if you hand him the ball behind the line of scrimmage .

If its a toss ( Left or right ) - a screen pass and a dump pass . Yes he is be dangerous on those plays .

But any other type of handoffs he becomes a very ordinary rb.

 

[TheFanatic]

But even when he DOES catch the ball, he doesn't seem to be able to evade anyone. If he is all alone, he can take it to the house, but you can say the same for 15 guys on every NFL team.

This is a telling point. In college the guy ran through giant gaping holes opened by a line that was better than the Rams line was in 2008. He was given a ticket into the secondary with every carry in college by his line. In the pros he has to run through shifting cracks and crevices that he does not seem to have an eye for. He is also immediately faced with an LB if he makes it through the hole. In college he was much faster than the LB. In the pros he is not. He is more elusive as a WR but out of the backfield not so much. The guy has had a single carry over 30 yards in his entire career. Pierre Thomas had 2 last year on only 129 carries. As for those that think there is no way the Saints don't resign him, let me ask you this. How much guaranteed money do you think Bush will ask for? $15, $20 million? Do you think the Saints can afford that much for a gimmick player? He's a great gimmick player but he is still a gimmick guy. I guess maybe if Bush decided to take a small signing bonus and an incentive laden contract he could stay in NOLA. But it seems that Bush is very motivated by the almighty dollar and I just don't see him and his agent not trying to leverage more money based on his star power while the team is going to focus on what he does on the field which is not move the chains very well when healthy and spend a lot of time on the training table when not healthy...

 

[Zigg]

Bush might be dangerous from the RB position , but not dangerous if you hand him the ball behind the line of scrimmage .If its a toss ( Left or right ) - a screen pass and a dump pass . Yes he is be dangerous on those plays .But any other type of handoffs he becomes a very ordinary rb.

Bush is a far better runner up the middle than on tosses and sweeps. Whenever the above is written, I automatically assume the poster has seen very little of Reggie Bush. On outside runs, Reggie tries to turn into a punt returner, but the room obviously isn't there. This is where most his losses come from. On quick hitters up the middle, Reggie is good.

 

[Blackjacks]

But even when he DOES catch the ball, he doesn't seem to be able to evade anyone. If he is all alone, he can take it to the house, but you can say the same for 15 guys on every NFL team.

This is a telling point. In college the guy ran through giant gaping holes opened by a line that was better than the Rams line was in 2008. He was given a ticket into the secondary with every carry in college by his line. In the pros he has to run through shifting cracks and crevices that he does not seem to have an eye for. He is also immediately faced with an LB if he makes it through the hole. In college he was much faster than the LB. In the pros he is not. He is more elusive as a WR but out of the backfield not so much. The guy has had a single carry over 30 yards in his entire career. Pierre Thomas had 2 last year on only 129 carries.

As for those that think there is no way the Saints don't resign him, let me ask you this. How much guaranteed money do you think Bush will ask for? $15, $20 million? Do you think the Saints can afford that much for a gimmick player? He's a great gimmick player but he is still a gimmick guy. I guess maybe if Bush decided to take a small signing bonus and an incentive laden contract he could stay in NOLA. But it seems that Bush is very motivated by the almighty dollar and I just don't see him and his agent not trying to leverage more money based on his star power while the team is going to focus on what he does on the field which is not move the chains very well when healthy and spend a lot of time on the training table when not healthy...

If I had a dime for every time you said this in these forums I'd be a rich man "In college the guy ran through giant gaping holes opened by a line that was better than the Rams line was in 2008. He was given a ticket into the secondary with every carry in college by his line.". We get your point. Come up with a new saying or start complaining about something else in his game.BTW, how many USC games did you actually watch?

Last time I checked you weren't a huge college football fan and we don't get alot of USC games around here.

What you call a gimmick player I call a hybrid. Just because he can do alot of things doesnt make him a gimmick. A gimmick is a trick. A hybrid is special, I'd go with the later.

Plus you should probably look at his original contract (he didn't hold out or hold them ransom) and the huge donation he gave to the city right afterwards. Pretty wierd move for a guy that just cares about $$$.

NO makes so much $$$ due to tickets sales cause of him he is worth every dime. Reggie has been a top 5 selling jersey since coming into the league

And if you don't think Bush moves the chains you just are wrong. It might not by rnuning the ball but he moves the chains in catches more than any other rb

But except for all of the comments I completely agree

Great post

Just say you don't like the guya and call it a day.

 

[awesomeness]

The thing that scares me the most about Bush is that i get the impression that Sean Payton has soured on him a bit. Watching that Bears game at the end of the season, the way Payton was interacting with Reggie, it just gave me the impression that the relationship between them isn't very good. And that can't be good for Bush getting opportunities imo.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Bush might be dangerous from the RB position , but not dangerous if you hand him the ball behind the line of scrimmage .

If its a toss ( Left or right ) - a screen pass and a dump pass . Yes he is be dangerous on those plays .

But any other type of handoffs he becomes a very ordinary rb.

Bush is a far better runner up the middle than on tosses and sweeps. Whenever the above is written, I automatically assume the poster has seen very little of Reggie Bush. On outside runs, Reggie tries to turn into a punt returner, but the room obviously isn't there. This is where most his losses come from. On quick hitters up the middle, Reggie is good.

Funny, I automatically assume that anyone that says "Yes he is be dangerous" doesn't know what they are talking about.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Bush might be dangerous from the RB position , but not dangerous if you hand him the ball behind the line of scrimmage .

If its a toss ( Left or right ) - a screen pass and a dump pass . Yes he is be dangerous on those plays .

But any other type of handoffs he becomes a very ordinary rb.

Bush is a far better runner up the middle than on tosses and sweeps. Whenever the above is written, I automatically assume the poster has seen very little of Reggie Bush. On outside runs, Reggie tries to turn into a punt returner, but the room obviously isn't there. This is where most his losses come from. On quick hitters up the middle, Reggie is good.

Funny, I automatically assume that anyone that says "Yes he is be dangerous" doesn't know what they are talking about.

And you would fall into that category of those who don't watch the games. He was definitely the best punt returner in the NFL lasr year. If he hadn't tripped, he would have returned 3 for TDs against Minny in that Monday night game.

 

[two_dollars]

I play PPR I'm targetting Bush. I'll let people take the hyped up Thomas 2 rounds too early, while getting Bush a round or 2 late. Bush represents the value here.

 

[Moniker]

I play PPR I'm targetting Bush. I'll let people take the hyped up Thomas 2 rounds too early, while getting Bush a round or 2 late. Bush represents the value here.

The problem with this is that you're not going to get Bush late in a PPR league. He's the one who's over-hyped fantasy-wise.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

And if you don't think Bush moves the chains you just are wrong. It might not by rnuning the ball but he moves the chains in catches more than any other rbJust say you don't like the guya and call it a day.

As I mentioned before, Pierre Thomas converts FAR more of his targets to first downs.In fact, in the years Bush has been in the league, there have been 34 RBs (who have 30+ targets) who convert a higher percentage of them into first downs.To be truthful, that number sounds a little worse than it is, because the list includes some specialists, and some guys who don't do it a ton. But still, the point is that Bush, even receiving-wise where is regarded as "elite", doesn't do anything outrageously better than anyone else. He just got targeted a lot. In the past. We'll see going forward.MJD for example produced 66 FDs on 191 targets. With a 101 more targets, Bush produced 13 more FDs (RECEIVING, if you include rushing numbers of course, the whole comparison is ridiculous in favor of the real running back). And this is a guy who REGULARLY runs WR routes - more than any other back in the league. And if you look at actual yards per target, it gets even uglier. Here are the starters (just the starters or heavy RBBC members, there are tons of specialists who are better as well) who get more yards per target than Reggie Bush:MaroneyMcFaddenMJDRonnie BrownPierre ThomasSlatonPetersonSteven JacksonAddaiPortisRiceForteJulius JonesFred TaylorWestbrookBarberGoreLTDWillBensonBrandon JacobsJamal LewisThat doesn't leave many does it?

 

[Menace]

I think Bush has gone from overrated to underrated.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Bush might be dangerous from the RB position , but not dangerous if you hand him the ball behind the line of scrimmage .

If its a toss ( Left or right ) - a screen pass and a dump pass . Yes he is be dangerous on those plays .

But any other type of handoffs he becomes a very ordinary rb.

Bush is a far better runner up the middle than on tosses and sweeps. Whenever the above is written, I automatically assume the poster has seen very little of Reggie Bush. On outside runs, Reggie tries to turn into a punt returner, but the room obviously isn't there. This is where most his losses come from. On quick hitters up the middle, Reggie is good.

Funny, I automatically assume that anyone that says "Yes he is be dangerous" doesn't know what they are talking about.

And you would fall into that category of those who don't watch the games. He was definitely the best punt returner in the NFL lasr year. If he hadn't tripped, he would have returned 3 for TDs against Minny in that Monday night game.

He's a very good punt returner (I'm not sure about "best", but very good anyway). That doesn't make him a good running back, or even a guy that should be used heavily in the offense.