Sammy Watkins vs A J Green Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Of course A J Green is a stud and Watkins is an unknown that hasn't done squat in the NFL, but does anyone think Watkins will have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now? That will make Green 27 and Watkins 23.

Edited to add: I don't want this to become a 27 vs 23 thing. Obviously 27 is still young for a WR. I'm talking about both guys in their prime or close to it, will Watkins have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now when Watkins matures into the position.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Of course A J Green is a stud and Watkins is an unknown that hasn't done squat in the NFL, but does anyone think Watkins will have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now? That will make Green 27 and Watkins 23.

I think it's possible, but I certainly wouldn't want to bet on it. If I'm pulling numbers completely out of my hindquarters, I'd estimate the chances at 25%.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I think it is possible. If Watkins in year two goes for 85 - 1250 - 8 or so at only 23 years of age that would have to put him in the conversation.

This kind of has me thinking about the conversation others were having a few days ago about Calvin for Demaryius. even though Calvin is 29, most prefer him by quite a bit. I think this is a closer comparison though and I could see many preferring Watkins after two years.

 

[DexterDew]

So another way to ask the question is "can Watkins be elite?" I'm not sure I see him in the Green/Dez/DT/JJ Tier.

The debate about who will have more value two years down the road is more interesting. Youth will always be in demand in dynasty, thus the premium. In the past couple of years, I've noticed Megatron starting to lose his hold as the WR1 in FF. He's 29 this year. I think there is a big difference between 27 and 29, and I wouldn't discount Green for being 27. I would discount him if Dalton flames out and he has to start a fresh with a new QB. So yes, Watkins "could" be as much as Green two years down the road. But that is a lot of production in the interim to be giving up for a could.

[side bar: FF changes so quickly that I don't feel comfortable project more than 5 years out. So I personally would not feel comfortable trading a Tier 1 WR for a rookie WR, unless I didn't want to win in the next couple of years]

 

[tdmills]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Honestly I ranked Watkins higher than Evans because I think he's a safer bet to be a long term WR1 down the road.

But if the question was instead who has the better chance of being valued with the uberstuds (Green/Julio/Dez/DT) in 2-3 years, risk and all, I'd rank Evans higher.

 

[georg013]

I tend not to let the combine screw up my perception of a player. That's like relying on a single test to tell you how smart a kid is. What happens when the kid forgets to eat his Cheerios that morning? Has an off day? He was top of his class ALL year long. All of the other teachers saw it. All of the colleges wanted him. But, oops, he didn't receive the highest score on ONE assessment (mind you he still performed well) and past production gets thrown out the window. Now he's an ok student, not great. Sound silly? It is. Public education. Go figure.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So another way to ask the question is "can Watkins be elite?" I'm not sure I see him in the Green/Dez/DT/JJ Tier.

The debate about who will have more value two years down the road is more interesting. Youth will always be in demand in dynasty, thus the premium. In the past couple of years, I've noticed Megatron starting to lose his hold as the WR1 in FF. He's 29 this year. I think there is a big difference between 27 and 29, and I wouldn't discount Green for being 27. I would discount him if Dalton flames out and he has to start a fresh with a new QB. So yes, Watkins "could" be as much as Green two years down the road. But that is a lot of production in the interim to be giving up for a could.

[side bar: FF changes so quickly that I don't feel comfortable project more than 5 years out. So I personally would not feel comfortable trading a Tier 1 WR for a rookie WR, unless I didn't want to win in the next couple of years]

One thing that's often overlooked in these discussions is that the consensus gets more and more age obsessed every year.

It used to be that people had no problem trading huge amounts for a 29 year old running back in dynasty. I believe it's Adam who's talked about this phenomenon before, but soon after 29 year old running backs were considered "old", 28 year old running backs were considered "old" because they were 1 year away from being 29. Then 27 year olds were old because they were a year away from being 28. And so on. Now we have people in the trade threads talking about trading away LeSean McCoy on the cheap because they're rebuilding and he's already....25.

This is only just starting to catch on with WRs, and who knows, maybe two years from now a 27 year old WR will be devalued more than he is now because he's almost 28 which is almost 29 which is almost 30 at which point a WR only has a few years left and has much lower trade value.

People are crazy over this age thing.

 

[Greggity]

So another way to ask the question is "can Watkins be elite?" I'm not sure I see him in the Green/Dez/DT/JJ Tier.

The debate about who will have more value two years down the road is more interesting. Youth will always be in demand in dynasty, thus the premium. In the past couple of years, I've noticed Megatron starting to lose his hold as the WR1 in FF. He's 29 this year. I think there is a big difference between 27 and 29, and I wouldn't discount Green for being 27. I would discount him if Dalton flames out and he has to start a fresh with a new QB. So yes, Watkins "could" be as much as Green two years down the road. But that is a lot of production in the interim to be giving up for a could.

[side bar: FF changes so quickly that I don't feel comfortable project more than 5 years out. So I personally would not feel comfortable trading a Tier 1 WR for a rookie WR, unless I didn't want to win in the next couple of years]

One thing that's often overlooked in these discussions is that the consensus gets more and more age obsessed every year.

It used to be that people had no problem trading huge amounts for a 29 year old running back in dynasty. I believe it's Adam who's talked about this phenomenon before, but soon after 29 year old running backs were considered "old", 28 year old running backs were considered "old" because they were 1 year away from being 29. Then 27 year olds were old because they were a year away from being 28. And so on. Now we have people in the trade threads talking about trading away LeSean McCoy on the cheap because they're rebuilding and he's already....25.

This is only just starting to catch on with WRs, and who knows, maybe two years from now a 27 year old WR will be devalued more than he is now because he's almost 28 which is almost 29 which is almost 30 at which point a WR only has a few years left and has much lower trade value.

People are crazy over this age thing.

Im falling into that trap i have noticed. Just finished one dynasty draft where my wr corps is

Julio Jones, Mike Evans, jordan mathews, kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Lee, Robert woods and martavis bryant

 

[georg013]

Marquise Lee is a 23 year old rookie. Way too old.

 

[JohnnyU]

Marquise Lee is a 23 year old rookie. Way too old.

No, he just might have trouble beating the jam by professional DBs who are fast and physical. Not to mention his frail body. As for Watkins and future dynasty value, I don't want this to become a 27 vs 23 thing. I'm talking about both guys in their prime or close to it, will Watkins have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now when Watkins matures into the position.

 

[humpback]

Of course A J Green is a stud and Watkins is an unknown that hasn't done squat in the NFL, but does anyone think Watkins will have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now? That will make Green 27 and Watkins 23.

I think it's possible, but I certainly wouldn't want to bet on it. If I'm pulling numbers completely out of my hindquarters, I'd estimate the chances at 25%.

Sounds about right to me.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

I wonder if there can be longer range kinds of recency bias.

There certainly have been WRs Watkins size or smaller that have succeeded at a high level.

The top WRs do seem to have some if not all of these attributes.

Coincidentally, Green also had a 34" VJ, and Watkins is faster. Green is 3" taller, but may weigh less, and doesn't look as strong after the catch.

Dez Bryant is 1" taller. I'm not sure if there is a cutoff, where 6'2" is "tall enough", but even an inch lower is a death blow to the prospects of becoming an elite WR. Bryant has a freakish VJ and acrobatic aerial skills, but Watkins is again faster.

Good point about having an elite QB. The most recent outlier is Gordon, where Weedon and Hoyer were far from elite, and he had one of the greatest seasons for a WR in league history.

To me, Watkins is kind of a combination of Roddy White and Percy Harvin. Not as thick or powerful as White (former prep state wrestling champ) or with the electric burst and suddenness of Harvin, but more Harvin-like than White in terms of his dangerous RAC skills, and more White-like than Harvin in some ways, being 2" taller and 25 lbs. heavier (the aptness of these respective combo comps with different emphasis may be asymmetrical, as Harvin reportedly can bench 400 lbs., which, if true, might make him one of the stronger WRs in the league, despite, or maybe because of, his compact frame). Hypothetically, if Watkins was White/Harvin, that would be a pretty good WR, potentially elite.

He doesn't have elite top end speed (most WRs don't, and the fastest WRs are rarely the best), but imo he does have elite acceleration and RAC skills which make him special. He is like a RB in the open field, and his toughness and physicality effectively allow him to play bigger than his size. He will truck some DBs over his career, and that isn't Green's game, so it could be a kind of equalizer (as well as compared to some of the other, taller, more athletic WRs).

It isn't an accident that he is the only WR in NCAA history to be an AP first team All-American as a true Freshman, or scouts called him the best WR prospect since Green and Jones (they didn't qualify it by saying, if he were taller and more athletic). I could see him being in the top 5 WRs or just outside in a few years.

All that said, I can't imagine trading Green for Watkins. I'm not sure about Randy Moss, but Green has to be off to one of the best three year starts to a career for a WR in NFL history. That is the big difference, Watkins is completely unproven at the next level. I think there is little chance he is terrible or even average, but he may not be as great as I think. Green indisputably is.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

I wonder if there can be longer range kinds of recency bias.

There certainly have been WRs Watkins size or smaller that have succeeded at a high level.

The top WRs do seem to have some if not all of these attributes.

Coincidentally, Green also had a 34" VJ, and Watkins is faster. Green is 3" taller, but may weigh less, and doesn't look as strong after the catch.

Dez Bryant is 1" taller. I'm not sure if there is a cutoff, where 6'2" is "tall enough", but even an inch lower is a death blow to the prospects of becoming an elite WR. Bryant has a freakish VJ and acrobatic aerial skills, but Watkins is again faster.

Good point about having an elite WR. The most recent outlier is Gordon, where Weedon and Hoyer were far from elite, and he had one of the greatest seasons for a WR in league history.

To me, Watkins is kind of a combination of Roddy White and Percy Harvin. Not as thick or powerful as White (former prep state wrestling champ) or with the electric burst and suddenness of Harvin, but more Harvin-like than White in terms of his dangerous RAC skills, and more White-like than Harvin in some ways, being 2" taller and 25 lbs. heavier (the aptness of these respective combo comps with different emphasis may be asymmetrical, as Harvin reportedly can bench 400 lbs., which, if true, might make him one of the stronger WRs in the league, despite, or maybe because of, his compact frame). Hypothetically, if Watkins was White/Harvin, that would be a pretty good WR, potentially elite.

He doesn't have elite top end speed (most WRs don't, and the fastest WRs are rarely the best), but imo he does have elite acceleration and RAC skills which make him special. He is like a RB in the open field, and his toughness and physicality effectively allow him to play bigger than his size. He will truck some DBs over his career, and that isn't Green's game, so it could be a kind of equalizer (as well as compared to some of the other, taller, more athletic WRs).

It isn't an accident that he is the only WR in NCAA history to be an AP first team All-American as a true Freshman, or scouts called him the best WR prospect since Green and Jones (they didn't qualify it by saying, if he were taller and more athletic). I could see him being in the top 5 WRs or just outside in a few years.

All that said, I can't imagine trading Green for Watkins. I'm not sure about Randy Moss, but Green has to be off to one of the best three year starts to a career for a WR in NFL history. That is the big difference, Watkins is completely unproven at the next level. I think there is little chance he is terrible or even average, but he may not be as great as I think. Green indisputably is.

So, how do you think Watkins will stack up to Green in dynasty value in two or three years?

 

[spider321]

AJ has a bad QB.

Watkins has a terrible QB.

...so who knows.

 

[DexterDew]

Green>>>Watkins now, and I will erase a ">" for every year that Watkins moves up a Tier in redraft. So in 2 or 3 years, he could be within shouting distance of Green. The "value" part of the equation is a little more nebulous with ever changing valuation depending on who you ask and when you ask. But I don't see Watkins being elite unless he gets ungodly amount of targets. I think Green is elite today and two years from now.

But there has to be a crossover point if both players remain healthy because of the four year age difference. I'm guessing at some point the FF consensus will be that a 30 year old WR is less valuable than a 26 year old... or 29<25, or 31<27. You're asking in 2 or 3 years will it happen, and I don't think so. Someday? it has to (unless Watkins gets injured). YMMV

 

[Bob Magaw]

I don't think Watkins should be precluded from potential elite WR conversation, I think he has that kind of ability.

I think Watkins *COULD* be top 5 (I like his physical tools, skill set and game), but Green already *IS* top 3 or better.

I'm not sure the best way to answer this.

I'm a lot less confident Watkins will be a top 5 WR in 2-3 years than Green, NOW, having seen Green three years in the NFL, and Watkins not at all. If I were to compare how I view Watkins prospects NOW to when Green was a prospect prior to entering the league, I liked Green more, but it was close. I didn't expect Green to have a historically good first three years (far better even than Calvin Johnson). That's the thing, almost any WR would suffer in the comparison with Green's first three years, other than Randy Moss.

Highly unlikely Watkins would be able to approach them, though, he could do less than that, and still be in the top 5 conversation, as that is being stacked up against some of the best WR numbers ever.

If I were contemplating a trade today, I wouldn't move Green for Watkins without a substantial premium, due to his being a known commodity. If Watkins is between 5-10 (my upside projection) and Green around top 2-3 in a few years, I could see how it might come down to age difference at that time for some people. In that scenario, I'd rather have Green.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't think Watkins should be precluded from potential elite WR conversation, I think he has that kind of ability.

I think Watkins *COULD* be top 5 (I like his physical tools, skill set and game), but Green already *IS* top 3 or better.

I'm not sure the best way to answer this.

I'm a lot less confident Watkins will be a top 5 WR in 2-3 years than Green, NOW, having seen Green three years in the NFL, and Watkins not at all. If I were to compare how I view Watkins prospects NOW to when Green was a prospect prior to entering the league, I liked Green more, but it was close. I didn't expect Green to have a historically good first three years (far better even than Calvin Johnson). That's the thing, almost any WR would suffer in the comparison with Green's first three years, other than Randy Moss.

Highly unlikely Watkins would be able to approach them, though, he could do less than that, and still be in the top 5 conversation, as that is being stacked up against some of the best WR numbers ever.

If I were contemplating a trade today, I wouldn't move Green for Watkins without a substantial premium, due to his being a known commodity. If Watkins is between 5-10 (my upside projection) and Green around top 2-3 in a few years, I could see how it might come down to age difference at that time for some people. In that scenario, I'd rather have Green.

very well said, thanks.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Thanks for the good question.

Not to put too fine of a point on it, but a factor I would have to consider is trajectory.

In other words, hypothetically if Watkins is WR20 year one, WR10 year two and WR5 year three (looking the part of an ascendant player with surging value - and speaking for myself, that might have my attention more as I believe in his talent, and would no doubt be more likely to interpret it as corroboration of my upside projection, where others might be more likely to find it wildly unexpected and flukey), and Green is WR3 with only a few points separating them, in that case the age difference would weigh much more heavily in the final analysis, and that would flip the decision in favor of Watkins for me. But if we think of the possible answers to your question as a series of probablility spaces, I see many more in which I would like Green more in 2-3 years, despite the age difference. I just disagree with some about the odds of Watkins getting to top 5-10 in a few years, and think they are a lot higher than virtually impossible (guys like Watkins don't come around every year or even every other year, imo).

 

[tdmills]

For a reference, I moved Patterson and the 1.1 for AJ Green a few months back. Context matters, so I already have Marshall/Jeffery/Garcon/Roddy/J. Graham at the time, so i'd rather have the sure thing over two projects.

If I had to name 2 WRs from this draft class that could approach the top 5, it would be Evans and Cooks. Evans has the size and Cooks has the speed/quickness/HOF QB.

I know I may be in the minority, but I think Sammy Watkins is more likely to have a Greg Jennings type career vs AJ Green type career.

 

[tdmills]

I tend not to let the combine screw up my perception of a player. That's like relying on a single test to tell you how smart a kid is. What happens when the kid forgets to eat his Cheerios that morning? Has an off day? He was top of his class ALL year long. All of the other teachers saw it. All of the colleges wanted him. But, oops, he didn't receive the highest score on ONE assessment (mind you he still performed well) and past production gets thrown out the window. Now he's an ok student, not great. Sound silly? It is. Public education. Go figure.

It's technically 7 tests they perform multiple times, given them less chance to be an outlyer one way or the other.

I figured using some measurable data was better than saying "while watching film I don't view Watkins as an elite athlete." Then the critics would discuss how I'm not a scout, etc.

If you view Watkins as one of the best athletic WRs in the NFL, then i'm not sure we're going to agree on much.

 

[cstu]

Of course A J Green is a stud and Watkins is an unknown that hasn't done squat in the NFL, but does anyone think Watkins will have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now? That will make Green 27 and Watkins 23.

Edited to add: I don't want this to become a 27 vs 23 thing. Obviously 27 is still young for a WR. I'm talking about both guys in their prime or close to it, will Watkins have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now when Watkins matures into the position.

In two years Green will be 28 and Watkins 23. If Green continues putting up the same numbers then he'll be a viewed the same way as Calvin is right now - the #1 dynasty WR.

However, there are people right now who have Green (25) ranked higher than Calvin (29) so there is a chance some people will rank Watkins higher than Green in two years.

 

[Xue]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

 

[gandalas]

traded watkins and josh gordon for AJ Green earlier this offseason (pre DUI). Obviously beyond thrilled now, but was very happy even when it didn't look definite that Gordon was gone for a long while...

 

[JohnnyU]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

 

[Ack88]

I still like Green more over the next few years, but Watkins is right with him. I see both as top 10 wr, but since I've already seen Green become elite, I'd sacrifice the age difference for demonstrated excellence.

When this thread is revisited after two or three years, I envision a conversation where we are splitting hairs- from a raw ability standpoint, I see the two as equivalent peers.

 

[Xue]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

 

[cstu]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

There is a thread here calling Watkins the next Green. Not totally out of the blue to compare these two.

 

[Xue]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

There is a thread here calling Watkins the next Green. Not totally out of the blue to compare these two.

So why not continue that thread?

It makes even less sense to compare two players who aren't even similar.

From a real life and Fantasy perspective, the player we should be comparing Watkins to is Torrey Smith.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think it's a reasonable comparison. A.J. Green is quickly passing Calvin Johnson as the consensus #1 dynasty WR, which means people in the community are going through the process of comparing the two and deciding which they'd prefer, Johnson's greater talent and higher level of dominance, or Green's 3 years of age.

In a couple of years, maybe we're going through that same process with Watkins and Green. Watkins and Green aren't similar WRs... but neither are Green and Calvin. In this case, they stand more as archetypes- Watkins the up-and-coming, highly-regarded, and much younger WR, Green the entrenched, older, proven, but still-young star. That battle between youth and production is an ever-present tension in dynasty.

 

[Louche]

In most current dynasty rankings and by recent dynasty ADP Green is becoming the #1 dynasty WR. He's still number two behind Calvin here and there but he's generally moving ahead in these days. However to me a large part of the value with AJ Green is that he is considered a very safe choice among the big 5. Calvin is a bit older than the other elite WRs, Julio has had his injury issues, Dez is seen as a little bit of a wildcard in terms of maturity, and people question what DT will be without Peyton. I'm not validating these concerns but these concerns exist out there. I think most would say that all these four WRs have higher ceilings than AJ Green. And many will say that they are better WRs than AJ Green. But what AJ Green offers is a tremendous work ethic and reliability which makes him the safest choice for long term elite productivity. Considering that this is one of his primary strengths in terms of dynasty I think he is an odd choice to compare with Sammy Watkins as Watkins is a rookie, meaning that he hardly offers any reliability. Watkins might even be a better talent than AJG but talent is not the primary thing that separates AJ Green from the other elite WRs.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

There is a thread here calling Watkins the next Green. Not totally out of the blue to compare these two.

So why not continue that thread?

It makes even less sense to compare two players who aren't even similar.

From a real life and Fantasy perspective, the player we should be comparing Watkins to is Torrey Smith.

Why would we compare a 58th overall pick to a 4th overall pick? I am actually enjoying the exercise because it reveals the premium people put on younger players based on nothing but youth.

As a MD Alum and a Raven's fan Torrey Smith might be my favorite player, but the Ravens didn't trade a 1st to move up into the top 5 to draft him. Watkins is a much more serious investment by his team and will have both higher expectations and more pressure.

 

[jurb26]

Wow, Watkins love is out of control.

 

[Xue]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

There is a thread here calling Watkins the next Green. Not totally out of the blue to compare these two.

So why not continue that thread?

It makes even less sense to compare two players who aren't even similar.

From a real life and Fantasy perspective, the player we should be comparing Watkins to is Torrey Smith.

Why would we compare a 58th overall pick to a 4th overall pick? I am actually enjoying the exercise because it reveals the premium people put on younger players based on nothing but youth.

As a MD Alum and a Raven's fan Torrey Smith might be my favorite player, but the Ravens didn't trade a 1st to move up into the top 5 to draft him. Watkins is a much more serious investment by his team and will have both higher expectations and more pressure.

Totally agree with that last sentence. But does that mean Watkins will have a upside/value/career of Green after factoring in situation (QB and surrounding talent who could take away targets)?

Torrey Smith is only 25 this year. He is at the age where he's just about to peak. Last year he had a career low TD total. With a new staff who has a tendency to "create" opportunities for a single X-receiver, Smith is in store for a career season.

In a startup, I'd draft Watkins and flip him for a chance to take Torrey Smith.

It's nice to be a high 1st rounder, but why don't people use that to make a case for Michael Crabtree? Who probably isn't going to have a career better than Keenan Allen.

 

[Bob Magaw]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

There is a thread here calling Watkins the next Green. Not totally out of the blue to compare these two.

So why not continue that thread?

It makes even less sense to compare two players who aren't even similar.

From a real life and Fantasy perspective, the player we should be comparing Watkins to is Torrey Smith.

Why would we compare a 58th overall pick to a 4th overall pick? I am actually enjoying the exercise because it reveals the premium people put on younger players based on nothing but youth.

As a MD Alum and a Raven's fan Torrey Smith might be my favorite player, but the Ravens didn't trade a 1st to move up into the top 5 to draft him. Watkins is a much more serious investment by his team and will have both higher expectations and more pressure.

I thought that was a nonsequitur.

Intentional or not, an obvious connection between Green and Watkins is they are the two highest drafted WRs (both 1.4) since Calvin Johnson in 2007.

Below are the top rookie reception, yardage and TD marks since 2004 (taken from the 38 first round WRs drafted in the decade prior to 2014). If Watkins puts up 65-850-7 or better (close to his consensus FBG projection, except for the 5 TDs), he will be the third rookie first round WR in that span to finish in the top 5 in all three categories, along with Green (and Michael Clayton).

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2014/06/odell_beckham_jr_realistic_statistical_expectation_for_giants_first-round_pick.html

Receptions:

Michael Clayton (2004, Bucs) -- 80

Dwayne Bowe (2007, Chiefs) -- 70

A.J. Green (2011, Bengals) -- 65

Justin Blackman (2012, Jags) -- 64

Kendall Wright (2012, Titans) -- 64

Yards:

Clayton (2004, Bucs) -- 1,193

Green (2011, Bengals) -- 1,057

Bowe (2007, Chiefs) -- 99

Julio Jones (2011, Falcons) -- 959

Lee Evans (2004, Bills) -- 843

TD Catches:

Evans (2004, Bills) -- 9

Larry Fitzgerald (2004, Cards) -- 8

Roy Williams (2004, Lions) -- 8

Jones (2011, Falcons) -- 8

Green (2011, Bengals) -- 7

Clayton (2004, Bucs) -- 7

 

[FUBAR]

not in two years.

Ten years, sure.

 

[FUBAR]

This sounds like another AC question. Why randomly choose AJ Green to pit against Watkins? Why not pit him against someone more recent or from his own draft class?

Why not, Watkins vs Davante Adams?

Someone pee in your Cheerios?

I posed valid questions. Unless you're in a position to decide between these two specific players, I don't understand the basis for it.

There is a thread here calling Watkins the next Green. Not totally out of the blue to compare these two.

So why not continue that thread?

It makes even less sense to compare two players who aren't even similar.

From a real life and Fantasy perspective, the player we should be comparing Watkins to is Torrey Smith.

Why would we compare a 58th overall pick to a 4th overall pick? I am actually enjoying the exercise because it reveals the premium people put on younger players based on nothing but youth.

As a MD Alum and a Raven's fan Torrey Smith might be my favorite player, but the Ravens didn't trade a 1st to move up into the top 5 to draft him. Watkins is a much more serious investment by his team and will have both higher expectations and more pressure.

I thought that was a nonsequitur.

Intentional or not, the obvious connection between Green and Watkins is they are the two highest drafted WRs (both 1.4) since Calvin Johnson in 2007.

and they both started their NFL careers with questions at QB. some would say the questions remain.

But they are very different players. I don't see Watkins dominating like Green can, but he can be a very good receiver without dominating the game.

 

[Dan Hindery]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

There were many who discounted AJ Green based upon #1 and #3 when he was a rookie.

Go back and check AJ's combine numbers and I believe you will be surprised at how pedestrian they are. He did not finish near the top in any category:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/a.j.-green?id=2495450

And of course he had an unproven 2nd rounder in Andy Dalton as his QB. Most still don't like Dalton, but compared to the opinions of him coming out of the draft, he has risen quite a bit in the overall perception.

Really the only thing Green has on Watkins from your list is a few inches of height...

 

[Louche]

Of course A J Green is a stud and Watkins is an unknown that hasn't done squat in the NFL, but does anyone think Watkins will have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now? That will make Green 27 and Watkins 23.

Edited to add: I don't want this to become a 27 vs 23 thing. Obviously 27 is still young for a WR. I'm talking about both guys in their prime or close to it, will Watkins have just as much dynasty value as Green two years from now when Watkins matures into the position.

Something that gets a bit lost in these types of discussions is the value that AJ Green gives you over the next two years, and I'm not just talking about his production which will be vastly superior to Watkins, but an elite WR like AJ Green gives you a highly sought after trade piece that gives you leverage in trade talks over the next couple of years and there is really no good way to put a value on that. Every owner in the league, rebuilding or not, would be willing to move mountains to acquire him and you can cash him in at any time.

I understand that the OP is not suggesting that their market value is close at this point in time, but asking where these two players might be in 2 years or 5 years tends to overlook the value the proven and productive piece is giving you now.

But yes, sure, I think Josh Gordon has already proved that if you lead the league in receiving yards in your second season there are fantasy football pundits and owners out there that will value you as the #1 dynasty player. Could that happen to Watkins? Sure, I guess, but it's not very likely and if I'm trading AJ Green for Watkins I need a lot of additional value included in the deal to take on all that risk.

 

[Xue]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

There were many who discounted AJ Green based upon #1 and #3 when he was a rookie.

Go back and check AJ's combine numbers and I believe you will be surprised at how pedestrian they are. He did not finish near the top in any category:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/a.j.-green?id=2495450

And of course he had an unproven 2nd rounder in Andy Dalton as his QB. Most still don't like Dalton, but compared to the opinions of him coming out of the draft, he has risen quite a bit in the overall perception.

Really the only thing Green has on Watkins from your list is a few inches of height...

AJ Green is elite at playing WR. The things he's able to do are immeasurable and unquantifiable with numbers. You simply have to turn on the tape.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

There were many who discounted AJ Green based upon #1 and #3 when he was a rookie.

Go back and check AJ's combine numbers and I believe you will be surprised at how pedestrian they are. He did not finish near the top in any category:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/a.j.-green?id=2495450

And of course he had an unproven 2nd rounder in Andy Dalton as his QB. Most still don't like Dalton, but compared to the opinions of him coming out of the draft, he has risen quite a bit in the overall perception.

Really the only thing Green has on Watkins from your list is a few inches of height...

AJ Green is elite at playing WR. The things he's able to do are immeasurable and unquantifiable with numbers. You simply have to turn on the tape.

Nothing is immeasurable and unquantifiable numbers. If it is, then it doesn't exist.

Is A.J. Green great at getting separation? Great. How much separation does he usually get? Does he have great hands? Then what percentage of balls does he catch? How often does he win 50/50 balls? More crudely, I would say that Green's professional statistics alone make a pretty compelling argument for his greatness- 260/3833/29 receiving for his career, the fourth most fantasy points through three years in NFL history. Those numbers seem to be a pretty strong measure of his talent.

It's one thing to say that Green's greatness cannot be measured in track drills performed in shorts- and I'd say that those drills are never intended to measure his greatness, only his athleticism. It's another thing entirely to say that Green's greatness cannot be measured. If the numbers we're using don't accurately measure his greatness, the solution isn't to give up even trying, it's to get better numbers.

 

[georg013]

I tend not to let the combine screw up my perception of a player. That's like relying on a single test to tell you how smart a kid is. What happens when the kid forgets to eat his Cheerios that morning? Has an off day? He was top of his class ALL year long. All of the other teachers saw it. All of the colleges wanted him. But, oops, he didn't receive the highest score on ONE assessment (mind you he still performed well) and past production gets thrown out the window. Now he's an ok student, not great. Sound silly? It is. Public education. Go figure.

It's technically 7 tests they perform multiple times, given them less chance to be an outlyer one way or the other.

I figured using some measurable data was better than saying "while watching film I don't view Watkins as an elite athlete." Then the critics would discuss how I'm not a scout, etc.

If you view Watkins as one of the best athletic WRs in the NFL, then i'm not sure we're going to agree on much.

Fair enough.

 

[Xue]

I don't think Watkins is ever a tier 1 dynasty WR. While the Orange Bowl is fresh in everyone's mind, I think it has distorted everyone's view of him to recency bias.

Elite dynasty WRs possess these traits:

1) Elite athletic ability(top 5 at their position, these guys will thrive despite their QB). - Watkins didn't blow up the combine(agility drills showed him to be average and a 34 vertical). Jordan Matthews(labeled that unathletic, but fundamentally sound guy) beat Watkins in every drill except 40 yard dash(.03 behind), broad jump(6 inches behind), and they tied in the 3 cone drill at 6.95(which tied them for 19th of the WRs that partipated).

2) Height - Watkins isn't tall(6'0 3/4)

3) Elite QB throwing him the ball - If a player isn't an elite athlete and doesn't have the height, then they must have a HOF type QB throwing them the rock. I'm looking at Eric Decker but doing it in a sustained fashion.

Watkins is a good athlete, but not great. He's not tall and he has EJ Manuel throwing him the football for the next 3-4 years. The best Watkins fans can hope for is a Pierre Garcon type situation where he gets a ton of targets despite not being a dynamic talent.

There were many who discounted AJ Green based upon #1 and #3 when he was a rookie.

Go back and check AJ's combine numbers and I believe you will be surprised at how pedestrian they are. He did not finish near the top in any category:

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/a.j.-green?id=2495450

And of course he had an unproven 2nd rounder in Andy Dalton as his QB. Most still don't like Dalton, but compared to the opinions of him coming out of the draft, he has risen quite a bit in the overall perception.

Really the only thing Green has on Watkins from your list is a few inches of height...

AJ Green is elite at playing WR. The things he's able to do are immeasurable and unquantifiable with numbers. You simply have to turn on the tape.

Nothing is immeasurable and unquantifiable numbers. If it is, then it doesn't exist.

Is A.J. Green great at getting separation? Great. How much separation does he usually get? Does he have great hands? Then what percentage of balls does he catch? How often does he win 50/50 balls? More crudely, I would say that Green's professional statistics alone make a pretty compelling argument for his greatness- 260/3833/29 receiving for his career, the fourth most fantasy points through three years in NFL history. Those numbers seem to be a pretty strong measure of his talent.

It's one thing to say that Green's greatness cannot be measured in track drills performed in shorts- and I'd say that those drills are never intended to measure his greatness, only his athleticism. It's another thing entirely to say that Green's greatness cannot be measured. If the numbers we're using don't accurately measure his greatness, the solution isn't to give up even trying, it's to get better numbers.

You're a big stats guy and not a film guy so you'll never get it.And I'm referring to him as a prospect, not who he is today.

There's a reason why numerous other WRs with freak measurables can never be as good as Green. It's because they lack actual WR skills.

Guys like Stephen Hill, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Justin Hunter, Donte Moncrief.

 

[jurb26]

You're a big stats guy and not a film guy so you'll never get it.

And I'm referring to him as a prospect, not who he is today.

There's a reason why numerous other WRs with freak measurables can never be as good as Green. It's because they lack actual WR skills.

Guys like Stephen Hill, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Justin Hunter, Donte Moncrief.

I agree with this. Green is probably the best WR to come out since I've been following the draft closely. At least in my estimation he is. I recall saying he is Fitz with better size and athleticism. Maybe Calvin was a better prospect but they were just so different it's hard to say. Calvin wasn't nearly as refined as Green but his size, speed and athletic ability were so off the charts it was impossible to ignore. Green was simply born to be an All Pro WR. Everything he does looks effortless. He's so smooth, has no wasted motion, always plays in control and yet maintains all of his athletic ability in transition.

Watkins may have been drafted higher, but to me he's not the same caliber prospect. I don't think there is anything I can think of that Watkins is better at than Green as a WR prospect. Perhaps he's better with the ball in his hands. He generates more power as a runner and runs with better leverage.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I don't think Watkins has the consistent TD potential to breach the consensus top-5, even in two years. He'd need an elite QB and tons of targets for me to think he could overcome his disadvantage in that area. Kind of similar to how I feel about Harvin/Cobb.

I think this is a much more interesting thread if it's Evans we're talking about.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I don't think Watkins has the consistent TD potential to breach the consensus top-5, even in two years. He'd need an elite QB and tons of targets for me to think he could overcome his disadvantage in that area. Kind of similar to how I feel about Harvin/Cobb.

I think this is a much more interesting thread if it's Evans we're talking about.

McCown is an elite QB?

Why assume Evans will get more targets than Watkins?

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't think Watkins has the consistent TD potential to breach the consensus top-5, even in two years. He'd need an elite QB and tons of targets for me to think he could overcome his disadvantage in that area. Kind of similar to how I feel about Harvin/Cobb.

I think this is a much more interesting thread if it's Evans we're talking about.

Evans's market share of A&M TDs was pretty low. 17 of 67, 25%. Adams had more TDs last year than Evans had in both his years combined at A&M. Certainly there's TD potential, but with VJax still there and ASJ too, how much can we really expect? Not every big WR is an elite TD producer. Buff at least provides an "only game in town" benefit. Torrey Smith has been a pretty consistent TD producer, and isn't Watkins just a more polished and ready Torrey Smith?

 

[tdmills]

I don't think Watkins has the consistent TD potential to breach the consensus top-5, even in two years. He'd need an elite QB and tons of targets for me to think he could overcome his disadvantage in that area. Kind of similar to how I feel about Harvin/Cobb.

I think this is a much more interesting thread if it's Evans we're talking about.

McCown is an elite QB?

Why assume Evans will get more targets than Watkins?

McCown and Glennon have proven better than Manuel thus far.

Evans is a better red zone threat.

Watkins plays in cold weather vs Evans warm weather.

Watkins plays vs Revis/Grimes/Finnegan/Millner. Evans plays vs Trufant is maybe the best CB of the 3 teams(NO/ATL/CAR).

 

[tdmills]

I don't think Watkins has the consistent TD potential to breach the consensus top-5, even in two years. He'd need an elite QB and tons of targets for me to think he could overcome his disadvantage in that area. Kind of similar to how I feel about Harvin/Cobb.

I think this is a much more interesting thread if it's Evans we're talking about.

Evans's market share of A&M TDs was pretty low. 17 of 67, 25%. Adams had more TDs last year than Evans had in both his years combined at A&M. Certainly there's TD potential, but with VJax still there and ASJ too, how much can we really expect? Not every big WR is an elite TD producer. Buff at least provides an "only game in town" benefit. Torrey Smith has been a pretty consistent TD producer, and isn't Watkins just a more polished and ready Torrey Smith?

The comparison was AJ Green vs Watkins. If it's Watkins vs Torrey Smith then I would have less of an issue. This is the same crap like the top HS WR prospect every year if he's tall is Calvin or RB is the next AP.

 

[Warhogs]

Of course it's possible but Green his established himself as a young super NFL talent where Watkins hasn't played a snap yet. I'm not sure what the OP is looking for with this question.