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San Francisco 49ers - Fell short in SB LVIII. Time to regroup, reload, and give it another go next season (5 Viewers)

Explosive Play Rate (15+ yard pass or 10+ yard run):

49ers' Offense: 14.1% (#2 in NFL)
Eagles' Defense: 11.8% (#30 in NFL)

Big plays are to be had this week for the 49ers' offense.
not so fast my friend.
Niners spits home,away.
significantly worse on the road.

Splits by Game Location​



RushingPassing
Game Location#PlToGoYdsAttYdsY/ATD1DCmpAttCmp%YdsY/ATDIntSk1DRateANY/A
Home3138.156.831646634.084410613976.3154411.11121071132.311.2All Home 49ers plays
Away3538.935.981728334.8104911017064.713347.884116294.67.3All Away 49ers plays

avg yards to go 8.93 up from 8.15, nearly 1 yard less per pass 12% less completions, far less yards/att per game ( 7.8 vs 11.1 home) fewer TD, more INTs far worse QB rate any/a 4 yards less per play.

A california team traveling east to play in eastern time zone has won how many games in NFL history? they probably lose twice as many in east than any other time zone.

Philly is going to be rocking at 4p sunday.I hope the niners can hang on! they have a HC who can't win a big game, and this is one of the biggest for him this season.
Eagles win in a rout
 
Oh, and opening as favorites against them in their house has to ruffle their feathers a bit 😄
This is insane. SF is definitely capable of winning but the Eagles are the best team in football. And the possibility of rain plays into their favor as well.
All about timing/schedule. The Eagles schedule is......I hesitate to use the word unfair in another teams thread, but I've never seen one like it. And I don't mean the quality of opponents
Care to elaborate? I know SF got a very short end of the stick facing rested opponents this year (although it's overblown).
Got KC off their bye (no advantage/disadvantage when most get at least one in season game with significantly more rest) on a Monday, so next opponent (Buffalo) gets extra prep time. Get SF next, when SF played on a Thursday, so SF gets extra time. Then Dallas has a Thursday game...guess who their next opponent is? IN all it's not just 6 straight games against playoff teams, but four of those teams come into the game with extra rest. It's a bit over the top.

These things generally balance out for teams. Play a couple games where the opponent gets extra, play a game or three where you get extra. It was far from balanced for the Eagles this year
The 49ers got it even worse when it comes to rest disadvantage than the Eagles did this season. And it hurt us during out 3 game skid (CLE and CIN both had rest advantages, and we didn't have Williams and Deebo. It was too much to overcome I guess). Anyway, it's a valid argument and it does effect teams.


Why Does Rest Disparity Matter?​

Net rest is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.

Last year, three teams had net rest edges of negative-10 days or worse: Packers (-12), Patriots (-10), and Texans (-10). All three fell below their expected win total.

The two teams with the best net rest edges last year, the Bills (+12) and Lions (+11), went over their win totals.

It is even more valuable later in the season.

Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have won 55.2% of their games and have covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.


Which NFL team has the worst rest edge in 2023?​

The San Francisco 49ers have the worst rest edge for the 2023 NFL season.

The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents.

Which NFL team was hurt the most by the 2023 schedule?​

The Chiefs were hurt the most by the 2023 NFL schedule when considering every rest and prep variable.

The 49ers, Eagles, Vikings, and Giants round out the top five teams hurt the most by the 2023 NFL schedule.


In total, the 49ers play five games with a rest disadvantage, and the total days of rest disadvantage they have in those games is 26 days.

They get two games with rest advantage: Week 4 vs the Cardinals, and Week 13 @ the Eagles features an extra three days of rest and prep as the 49ers play Thanksgiving night in Week 12.

The Eagles have a negative-six-day net rest edge, tied for sixth-worst in the NFL. They have only one game that features more rest than their opponent, and it is extremely early in the season.

Additionally, there is a three-week span, from Week 12 through Week 14, that the Eagles will play with a rest disadvantage. And all three games are against powerhouses.
In addition to the rest days issue, SF travels the second-most miles this season, almost double the Eagles' miles traveled. A lot of the west coast teams have to spend a ton more time on airplanes than the rest of the league.
 
Akash:

Pressure Rate, last 4 weeks:
49ers: 39.8% (5th)
Eagles: 35.6% (11th)

Sack Rate, last 4 weeks:
49ers: 12.6% (3rd)
Eagles: 4.8% (24th)

Lots of talk about DLs, but the 49ers' DL is firing on all cylinders since adding Chase Young.

PHI's DL is really good, but not on SF's level.
 
Oh, and opening as favorites against them in their house has to ruffle their feathers a bit 😄
This is insane. SF is definitely capable of winning but the Eagles are the best team in football. And the possibility of rain plays into their favor as well.
All about timing/schedule. The Eagles schedule is......I hesitate to use the word unfair in another teams thread, but I've never seen one like it. And I don't mean the quality of opponents
Care to elaborate? I know SF got a very short end of the stick facing rested opponents this year (although it's overblown).
Got KC off their bye (no advantage/disadvantage when most get at least one in season game with significantly more rest) on a Monday, so next opponent (Buffalo) gets extra prep time. Get SF next, when SF played on a Thursday, so SF gets extra time. Then Dallas has a Thursday game...guess who their next opponent is? IN all it's not just 6 straight games against playoff teams, but four of those teams come into the game with extra rest. It's a bit over the top.

These things generally balance out for teams. Play a couple games where the opponent gets extra, play a game or three where you get extra. It was far from balanced for the Eagles this year
Eagles are only net 6 negative compared to -13 for KC and -20 for SF. Now I don't know your definition of never seen one like it, so maybe KC and SF being 2x and 3.5x worse makes them not like the Eagles.
 
Oh, and opening as favorites against them in their house has to ruffle their feathers a bit 😄
This is insane. SF is definitely capable of winning but the Eagles are the best team in football. And the possibility of rain plays into their favor as well.
All about timing/schedule. The Eagles schedule is......I hesitate to use the word unfair in another teams thread, but I've never seen one like it. And I don't mean the quality of opponents
Care to elaborate? I know SF got a very short end of the stick facing rested opponents this year (although it's overblown).
Got KC off their bye (no advantage/disadvantage when most get at least one in season game with significantly more rest) on a Monday, so next opponent (Buffalo) gets extra prep time. Get SF next, when SF played on a Thursday, so SF gets extra time. Then Dallas has a Thursday game...guess who their next opponent is? IN all it's not just 6 straight games against playoff teams, but four of those teams come into the game with extra rest. It's a bit over the top.

These things generally balance out for teams. Play a couple games where the opponent gets extra, play a game or three where you get extra. It was far from balanced for the Eagles this year
Eagles are only net 6 negative compared to -13 for KC and -20 for SF. Now I don't know your definition of never seen one like it, so maybe KC and SF being 2x and 3.5x worse makes them not like the Eagles.
I don’t know if it’s worse but 6 of our net -6 are this week against the other best team in the NFC and next week against the third best team in the NFC, our NFC East rival. Arguably our two biggest games are going against our biggest opponents each with a mini bye. -20 sounds ridiculous though even if against inferior teams.
 
Oh, and opening as favorites against them in their house has to ruffle their feathers a bit 😄
This is insane. SF is definitely capable of winning but the Eagles are the best team in football. And the possibility of rain plays into their favor as well.
All about timing/schedule. The Eagles schedule is......I hesitate to use the word unfair in another teams thread, but I've never seen one like it. And I don't mean the quality of opponents
Care to elaborate? I know SF got a very short end of the stick facing rested opponents this year (although it's overblown).
Got KC off their bye (no advantage/disadvantage when most get at least one in season game with significantly more rest) on a Monday, so next opponent (Buffalo) gets extra prep time. Get SF next, when SF played on a Thursday, so SF gets extra time. Then Dallas has a Thursday game...guess who their next opponent is? IN all it's not just 6 straight games against playoff teams, but four of those teams come into the game with extra rest. It's a bit over the top.

These things generally balance out for teams. Play a couple games where the opponent gets extra, play a game or three where you get extra. It was far from balanced for the Eagles this year
Eagles are only net 6 negative compared to -13 for KC and -20 for SF. Now I don't know your definition of never seen one like it, so maybe KC and SF being 2x and 3.5x worse makes them not like the Eagles.
I don’t know if it’s worse but 6 of our net -6 are this week against the other best team in the NFC and next week against the third best team in the NFC, our NFC East rival. Arguably our two biggest games are going against our biggest opponents each with a mini bye. -20 sounds ridiculous though even if against inferior teams.
It's really not that big of a deal. The rested advantage at home is zero and just a percent or two on the road. That could be a factor in this game but it's a non-factor next week vs. Dallas.
 
Oh, and opening as favorites against them in their house has to ruffle their feathers a bit 😄
This is insane. SF is definitely capable of winning but the Eagles are the best team in football. And the possibility of rain plays into their favor as well.
All about timing/schedule. The Eagles schedule is......I hesitate to use the word unfair in another teams thread, but I've never seen one like it. And I don't mean the quality of opponents
Care to elaborate? I know SF got a very short end of the stick facing rested opponents this year (although it's overblown).
Got KC off their bye (no advantage/disadvantage when most get at least one in season game with significantly more rest) on a Monday, so next opponent (Buffalo) gets extra prep time. Get SF next, when SF played on a Thursday, so SF gets extra time. Then Dallas has a Thursday game...guess who their next opponent is? IN all it's not just 6 straight games against playoff teams, but four of those teams come into the game with extra rest. It's a bit over the top.

These things generally balance out for teams. Play a couple games where the opponent gets extra, play a game or three where you get extra. It was far from balanced for the Eagles this year
Eagles are only net 6 negative compared to -13 for KC and -20 for SF. Now I don't know your definition of never seen one like it, so maybe KC and SF being 2x and 3.5x worse makes them not like the Eagles.
I don’t know if it’s worse but 6 of our net -6 are this week against the other best team in the NFC and next week against the third best team in the NFC, our NFC East rival. Arguably our two biggest games are going against our biggest opponents each with a mini bye. -20 sounds ridiculous though even if against inferior teams.
It's really not that big of a deal. The rested advantage at home is zero and just a percent or two on the road. That could be a factor in this game but it's a non-factor next week vs. Dallas.
At this point in the season I think your assessment is way off. 3 extra days rest now is like a week off earlier in the season
 
Think these are the two most talented DLs in the NFL. Their OL def has the edge no questions asked, we get the edge in skilled positions, linebackers, and secondary. With the loss of Odum and the rookie kicker, I give them the nod on ST. Hurts prob gets the edge at QB, but Purdy is an up and comer quickly climbing the QB ladder who should not be slept on. 5 days and counting…
 
Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
 
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Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
I believe I saw that we have the fewest amount of passing attempts in the league as well? Is that true?
 
Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
I believe I saw that we have the fewest amount of passing attempts in the league as well? Is that true?
Yep. 28 per game. Baltimore and Tennessee are the only other teams below 29.

We're pretty even at home (27.8) and away (28.3)

 
Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
SF has the fewest pass attempts per game in the entire league, this is an efficient but not historically great passing attack.
 
Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
SF has the fewest pass attempts per game in the entire league, this is an efficient but not historically great passing attack.
Thats what DVOA is, efficiency, and they have the 5th most efficient passing attack since 81. It's not about gaudy numbers.
 
Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
SF has the fewest pass attempts per game in the entire league, this is an efficient but not historically great passing attack.
Thats what DVOA is, efficiency, and they have the 5th most efficient passing attack since 81. It's not about gaudy numbers.
Right, but it's easier to be efficient on lower volume and all those other offenses on your list threw the ball a lot more.
 
Does Philly realize what's coming?

Since 1981, here are the Top Passing Offenses, thru 11 games (per DVOA):

1. 2007 Patriots
2. 2004 Colts
3. 2018 Chiefs
4. 1993 49ers
5. 2023 49ers (!!)

This passing offense so far this season has been *historically* great.


Only the 2007 Patiots went to a SB, but they're the only team on the list with a top 5 defense.
SF has the fewest pass attempts per game in the entire league, this is an efficient but not historically great passing attack.
Thats what DVOA is, efficiency, and they have the 5th most efficient passing attack since 81. It's not about gaudy numbers.
Right, but it's easier to be efficient on lower volume and all those other offenses on your list threw the ball a lot more.
I understand that, but its still impressive that Purdy has been consistently good enough to run the offense that efficiently all year, even with the 3 "bad" games during the losing streak.

Were averaging 28.2 points/game, same as Philly, but they've attempted 50 more passes than us. We average 9.3 yards per attempt, they average 7.5 YPA.
 
DT pass-rushing productivity scores over the past three weeks (since the 49ers' bye):

1. Arik Armstead: 12.3
2. Ed Oliver: 10.6
3. Aaron Donald: 10.2

Armstead has been delivering at the level of an elite game-wrecker. 13 pressures vs TB. His foot issue is key to monitor
 
CMC named FedEx ground Player of the Week for the 4th time this season.

The seventh-year pro recorded 19 carries for 114 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in addition to five catches for 25 yards in the 49ers 31-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving night.

He can't be stopped.
 
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a little perplexed that his team is favored on Sunday against the Eagles:

“I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me," Shanahan said. "But I don't really know how that stuff works. So, I don't really know why."


Coachspeak. He knows why. We all do.
 
Since Week 6, Brock Purdy has thrown from a clean pocket the least of any QB.

Chart:

This is my biggest concern against the Eagles. It's also crazy encouraging that Brock is stud, and he has done a MUUUUUCH better job with small movements within the pocket. He isn't the 8 game rook he was in the NFCCG still getting wet. The absolute dot he threw last week to Aiyuk for that TD against Seattle was magical....and the Eagles D is giving up the #29th or so most passing yards to opposing O's.

Lots going into determining why the Eagles are dogs at home. But this will be a WAR, and a close game, barring a key injury.
 
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a little perplexed that his team is favored on Sunday against the Eagles:

“I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me," Shanahan said. "But I don't really know how that stuff works. So, I don't really know why."


Coachspeak. He knows why. We all do.
Yeah we do....healthier on the whole and extra rest NOT coming off three straight tough wins over great teams including in OT last week ;)
 
If the Eagles win today there will be very loud chants of “overrated “. If the Niners win today there will be very loud chants of “overrated “.
 
I really thought Beal Jr would be active and make his debut today.

Ray-Ray McCloud (ribs) is inactive; Looks like Ronnie Bell might return punts in wet Philly.

Inactives:

QB Brandon Allen
RB Ty Davis-Price
DE Robert Beal Jr.
WR Ray-Ray McCloud
OL Ben Bartch
TE Brayden Willis
LB Jalen Graham
 
Yes! Finally! Been wanting to see him play since last season. We need to see what hes got.

This is set to be the NFL debut for 49ers DT Kalia Davis, who's active for the first time.
 
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Interesting....

With Ray-Ray McCloud out, Ronnie Bell and Kyle Juszczyk— yes, Kyle Juszczyk— are warming up at punt returner. Juice been practicing punt returns all season.
 
And lol@theEaglesteamthreadtitle. Since I’m not going into another teams thread. Makes this somehow even sweeter to me. All of their disillusionments that they were dominating that playoff game before we were playing it with a QB with no arms will finally be put to rest when we bury them in their place this post season. They’ll always have that game to hold on to I suppose.
 
And lol@theEaglesteamthreadtitle. Since I’m not going into another teams thread. Makes this somehow even sweeter to me. All of their disillusionments that they were dominating that playoff game before we were playing it with a QB with no arms will finally be put to rest when we bury them in their place this post season. They’ll always have that game to hold on to I suppose.
come on - you know that was a joke lol.
 
And lol@theEaglesteamthreadtitle. Since I’m not going into another teams thread. Makes this somehow even sweeter to me. All of their disillusionments that they were dominating that playoff game before we were playing it with a QB with no arms will finally be put to rest when we bury them in their place this post season. They’ll always have that game to hold on to I suppose.
come on - you know that was a joke lol.
Of course I do. Edit: that’s why I put lol. Doesn’t change the rest of my post.

I like your team but I didn’t hear a single Eagles fan (I don’t go into other threads) mention that game may have been different if Brock didn’t get hurt when he did. Only that we were clearly dominated start to finish. News flash - teams have trouble competing in the NFL without their starting QBs. It will be settled this year. I can’t wait for it.

Good luck til then.
 
So my son had a tournament final today at 4:30, had to completely shut down all electronics in my household. Just finished watching the absolute beat down we provided the Eagles.

Guess maybe when we have a QB, the results are slightly altered, just a tad!

I’ve got plenty more thoughts, but I’ll bask in this for a few hours. Let’s go Cowboys!!!!
 
And lol@theEaglesteamthreadtitle. Since I’m not going into another teams thread. Makes this somehow even sweeter to me. All of their disillusionments that they were dominating that playoff game before we were playing it with a QB with no arms will finally be put to rest when we bury them in their place this post season. They’ll always have that game to hold on to I suppose.
come on - you know that was a joke lol.
teams have trouble competing in the NFL without a QB
Fixed
 

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