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*** San Francisco 49ers *** Official thread (5 Viewers)

"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
The resident raiders fan in my home league is spamming the group text about Moody. He also brought up Jano, so clearly the trauma over being heckled because his team took a K so early still affects him.
 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
The resident raiders fan in my home league is spamming the group text about Moody. He also brought up Jano, so clearly the trauma over being heckled because his team took a K so early still affects him.

Yeah, I mean guys like Belichick tried to legitimize the argument that if you could pick a guy like Justin Tucker in the first round it would be worth it. And I don't think I could get into the numerical weeds with that argument because I'm not sophisticated enough, but I really doubt it and one of the problems with that is that you can't know if you're getting a Tucker. Now, could these teams do 1000x better putting these special teams candidates through a pro workout and pro pressure to see if their games will translate? Hell yes. A thousand times today through Sunday they could. And they don't and they still invest in it which absolutely sets my hair on fire. They think these guys come from the college field with different hashes and circumstances and situations and they just get it?

No, they don't. Life just doesn't work that way. Ever. So to expect it and then invest a third-round pick in a guy you have no clue about other than his collegiate record? Why not just light the pick on fire?

Anyway, I don't want to get down on people but that's also just . . . not bright. I feel bad for Moody. He seemed to have a good career going and it just went sideways. That's really a tough story.
 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
They got like 18 seasons of decent kicker play out of that pick, teams have definitely done worse.
 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
They got like 18 seasons of decent kicker play out of that pick, teams have definitely done worse.

If you look at the word "decent" and think about what most other teams got "decent" kicker performance for, then that operative word might give you pause and stick in the craw as maybe you overpaid for what you got.
 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
They got like 18 seasons of decent kicker play out of that pick, teams have definitely done worse.

If you look at the word "decent" and think about what most other teams got "decent" kicker performance for, then that operative word might give you pause and stick in the craw as maybe you overpaid for what you got.
I don't know if there is a football equivalent of the WAR stat in baseball that cuts across multiple different types of position groups, but I'd bet Janikowski's WAR if such a thing existed would be right up there with or exceed the expected value of a 17th pick in a given draft.
 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
They got like 18 seasons of decent kicker play out of that pick, teams have definitely done worse.

If you look at the word "decent" and think about what most other teams got "decent" kicker performance for, then that operative word might give you pause and stick in the craw as maybe you overpaid for what you got.
I don't know if there is a football equivalent of the WAR stat in baseball that cuts across multiple different types of position groups, but I'd bet Janikowski's WAR if such a thing existed would be right up there with or exceed the expected value of a 17th pick in a given draft.

PFF does do it, but not for kickers, and I can almost guarantee you it wouldn't be per PFF. Not even close. You should see what a running back gets you in terms of WAR. If they extended it to kickers then we could go look and see and you'd be surprised how not close it comes. But that's not provable, so I don't expect you to believe me. Saquon's WAR last year was under one, according to them. In fact, I think it was .4 or something like that. Now imagine a kicker in comparison.
 
This is a crazy graph. Dead last and lost an expected 11 points!! It couldve been a 14+ pt win if not for the horrible ST play. Seems no ST coordinator can figure it out.

Special Teams EPA, Week 1 (pre-MNF)

Déjà vu: It’s early, but after Week 1 #SF has lost the most expected points on special teams (11). Even without Jake Moody’s doink, the #49ers would still rank last. Not the start you want with a new ST coordinator.

 
"Money" is strong
Fair. But he was having a good year to that point.

He wasn't that great his rookie year either. And he missed a kick in all three playoff games he appeared in. I think the pressure of being a "highly-drafted" kicker doomed him from the start. Should never have drafted him, and should've moved on long ago when the cracks started showing.

I was thinking today that when you're drafted as a kicker in the third you're kind of doomed mentally. It just must weigh on a guy to justify that kind of draft position when there's little room for error at the position and any pressure in your head and you just start missing until the yips set in. Then you can forget your career.
Janikowski is the only exception I can think of and he was just a different kind of dude than most college kickers.

Seabass was different. It also helped that kickers weren't as accurate or good back then and that the Raiders of that time period were . . . well . . . not very bright. Davis had his own measures and there was no real footing that a national media or fanbase had where they could say, "Hey, that's really ****ing dumb!" In fact, the really ****ing dumb part of it was part of the point for Raiders fans.

By the time Seabass was on the Raiders, Al's innovative maverick tendencies were antiquated and self-defeating. It was sad to see it because I love the unquantifiable and untamed, but the NFL got really precise in ways that required an adjustment that Al never made.

I miss him, but it was what it was.
They got like 18 seasons of decent kicker play out of that pick, teams have definitely done worse.

If you look at the word "decent" and think about what most other teams got "decent" kicker performance for, then that operative word might give you pause and stick in the craw as maybe you overpaid for what you got.
I don't know if there is a football equivalent of the WAR stat in baseball that cuts across multiple different types of position groups, but I'd bet Janikowski's WAR if such a thing existed would be right up there with or exceed the expected value of a 17th pick in a given draft.

PFF does do it, but not for kickers, and I can almost guarantee you it wouldn't be per PFF. Not even close. You should see what a running back gets you in terms of WAR. If they extended it to kickers then we could go look and see and you'd be surprised how not close it comes. But that's not provable, so I don't expect you to believe me. Saquon's WAR last year was under one, according to them. In fact, I think it was .4 or something like that. Now imagine a kicker in comparison.
I’m sure a kickers relative value is low positionally, but 50 percent or whatever of #17 picks never do a single thing in the league so that is going to weigh the expected average way down.
 
Your new 49ers K: Eddie Pinero
49ers signed K Eddy Pineiro.
The fabled two-update day on Eddy Pineiro has come to pass. At some point this year he’ll probably be fantasy-interesting, though it might not be in Week 2 given how banged up the 49ers currently are.
 
49ers officially are signing veteran kicker Eddy Pineiro to their active roster on a one-year deal, per his agents Drew Rosenhaus and Robert Bailey.
 
Kyle Shanahan gonna bring another "Who is this guy" out of the woodwork for success in his system this year?

I suspect 49ers don't miss a beat with mac jones at a fraction of the cost. I think jones is better than TLaw in jax
I'm more worried about Kittle being out than Purdy, especially in the run game. If SF can't get that going, it's gonna be a long day for Mac.
 
Mac Jones was better for Brian Thomas JR than Trevor Lawrence last year.

Just tossing that out there for the Pearsall folks, like myself.
 
49ers RB Jordan James is expected to be healthy and ready to go Vs Saints. Last week, SF RBs got 31 carries and I expect/hope for 30+ RB carries again this week. The Saints finished 25th vs the run last week and gave up 146yds on 27 carries (5.4 ypc).

Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne already have chemistry/familiarity from their time together in NE. Bournes numbers in NE with Jones at QB:

119 catches
1,477 yards
10 TDs

Mac has been tutoring Bourne on Shanahan’s system to get him up to speed. Bourne might be a sneaky play this week.
 
Every 49ers player on the 53 man roster is in uniform and participating today in practice in some sort of capacity (limited/full); the only exception is QB Brock Purdy who is NOT practicing (Kittle is on IR and doesn't count against the roster)
 
Week 2 2024 the 49ers started:

QB: Brock Purdy
WR: Brandon Aiyuk
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: George Kittle

Week 2 2025 it’ll likely be:

QB: Mac Jones
WR: Ricky Pearsall
WR: Jauan Jennings
TE: Jake Tonges
 
Not that anyone cares, but SF might have found another 7th round gem in OL Connor Colby


Nick Wagoner:

49ers had a pass block win rate of 80.8% on Sunday. That was fourth best among all teams playing yesterday and their best as a team since the 2022 season finale in Las Vegas (82.6%).

Rookie Connor Colby stepped in for Ben Bartch and had a clean sheet -- 100% on 35 pass block sets (0 sacks, hurries or pressures)

Full individual pass block win rate numbers for 49ers OL on Sunday:

Colby - 100%
McKivitz and Brendel - 96%
Williams - 95.7%
Puni - 92%

For what it's worth, Puni got rolled up on early in that game and had to labor to get through it.
 
49ers' offense: #10 in EPA per play
49ers' defense: #4 in EPA per play

Even with a ridiculous amount of injuries, the 49ers rank 10th in EPA per play and second in success rate on offense.

Only teams Top-10 on both offense and defense in EPA per play:

49ers, Packers, Jaguars.
 
Next Gen Stats has a metric called "hustle stops." It's when a defender travels at least 20 yards from their position at the snap to make a tackle that results in a successful play for the defense. It quantifies range, effort, athleticism, etc.

There are 4 players in the NFL who have 4+ hustle stops, pending MNF through two weeks. 2 of them play for the 49ers. Dee Winters is second with 5. Fred Warner is tied for third with 4.

 
Been a stressful 2-0, but both these games seem like ones the 49ers would have lost last year. Blew so many leads in the 4th quarter last year. Offense is not overly exciting, but the defense is a fun group to watch, guys are flying all over the place.
 
Been a stressful 2-0, but both these games seem like ones the 49ers would have lost last year. Blew so many leads in the 4th quarter last year. Offense is not overly exciting, but the defense is a fun group to watch, guys are flying all over the place.

This is how I see the team. Finding ways to win.
 
There are good places online to post and interact with 49er fans, but this place ain't one of em.

I think this is a good forum and a good place to discuss football. If you don't think so, please do more to help make it better.
That's not what I said. I said it's not a good place to interact with 49er fans. Why? Because there's just not a lot of Niner fans here, and only a handful of them can or do actually discuss football. Look at this thread....not a lot going on.

The forums here are fine, but this thread isn't exactly chalk full of fun football discussions. I post news and stuff I find interesting, but it doesn't spark conversation because there aren't enough 49er fans here who want to (or enjoy) talking 49er football. But that's OK, I have a regular forum I go to talk shop with other 49er fans, I don't need it here. Have a great day.
 
There are good places online to post and interact with 49er fans, but this place ain't one of em.

I think this is a good forum and a good place to discuss football. If you don't think so, please do more to help make it better.
That's not what I said. I said it's not a good place to interact with 49er fans. Why? Because there's just not a lot of Niner fans here, and only a handful of them can or do actually discuss football. Look at this thread....not a lot going on.

The forums here are fine, but this thread isn't exactly chalk full of fun football discussions. I post news and stuff I find interesting, but it doesn't spark conversation because there aren't enough 49er fans here who want to (or enjoy) talking 49er football. But that's OK, I have a regular forum I go to talk shop with other 49er fans, I don't need it here. Have a great day.

I think this is a good forum and a good place to discuss football and interact with 49er fans. If you don't think so, please do more to help make it better. We all can do that. Thanks.
 
Been a stressful 2-0, but both these games seem like ones the 49ers would have lost last year. Blew so many leads in the 4th quarter last year. Offense is not overly exciting, but the defense is a fun group to watch, guys are flying all over the place.
Getting Salah back has obviously been huge. Night and day difference in intensity. Winters play has made losing Dre tolerable (plus he is on the field). Can't wait for Martin to get up to NFL speed.

49ers did the right and necessary thing to go draft heavy on D and then let them play and make their mistakes early in the season. I just feel this D will progress throughout the season and could
be something special down the line.

If they can get the receivers healthy, offense will cook. Colby looked great filling in for Barch and may Wally Pipp him.
 
"Small sample size, but look how Mykel Williams stacks up in DVAP against some of the most elite pass rushers in their first two games of their careers 👀"

Higher than Garrett, Donald, Hutch, both Watts, and Von Miller.

Chart: https://x.com/EastBayChris/status/1967354976549941503?t=s1V81nrlrp87SvtWI18ASQ&s=19

DVAP stands for Defensive Value Adjusted Production, an advanced analytics metric used in American football to evaluate a pass rusher's (or defender's) performance. It builds on concepts like expected points added (EPA) and surprise factors but adjusts for defensive context, such as the quality of the offensive line faced, effort level, and situational variables (e.g., down and distance). This makes it a refined measure of a player's impact on disrupting passes, similar to but more nuanced than metrics like pass rush win rate or pressure percentage.
 

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