Santonio Holmes vs Miles Austin (1 Viewer)

[Dragon1952]

To begin, I am not asking for advice. This is to settle a difference of opinion and to open discussion. I turned down a trade today that had me giving up Holmes and a top 10-15 dynasty ranked RB for Austin and a TE ranked at around the TE15 range (which I didn't need BTW....I've got Gates and Pettigrew). When I told him I considered Holmes and Austin to be darn near even he was like "Oh come on man!" He was citing ADP and, according to his spreadsheets of start-up dynasty drafts, had Austin at around the round 3.4 area and Holmes at around 8.4. So I started doing some research to see if I was wrong in my assessment of the two WR's. As for ADP, I looked through the 'post your start-up dynasty draft' thread, as well as a few drafts I've done this year, and found 16 drafts for leagues similar to ours. I found that Austin had been going at an average of around 3.2-3.3 and Holmes at around 5.9-5.10. regardless of ADP, I still say they are pretty darn even.

At 27 yrs old, they are the same age. And over the past 2 yrs they've put up similar numbers.

Holmes missed 4 games to suspension and finished 12 games at 52/746/6 on 95 targets but was on a pace for 69/1000/8. So using that,

Holmes

2010 - 69/1000/8

2009 - 79/1248/5

2 yr total = 148/2248/13 on 264 targets, 15.2 ypc avg

Austin

2010 - 69/1041/7

2009 - 81/1320/11

2 yr total = 150/2361/18 on 242 targets, 15.7 ypc avg

In our league's format and scoring Austin finished at an avg of 14.38 ppg last year and Holmes at 13.54 ppg. Austin did put up a lot more pts in 2009 but that was w/out Dez and with 2 huge games that accounted for 30% of his FP's (and 36% of his 11 TD's).

Of course Austin had Kitna throwing to him but Holmes had the 4 game suspension plus a new team/QB to deal with too.

Austin will have to compete with Dez and Witten for targets, although he arguably has a better QB and offense to work in. Keller's #'s dropped drastically after Holmes entered the lineup, and Braylon Edwards may be gone, so Holmes will be the guy (all of this assumes Holmes resigns which is the likely scenario).

So do you agree that I am as silly as my league-mate seems to think in how I value Austin compared to Holmes? He said I should post here to settle the argument. I'm sticking by my guns and saying I think they are pretty darn equal in terms of PPR dynasty fantasy football. BTW, I also noticed that FBG consensus dynasty rankings have Austin at WR10 and Holmes at WR14. Considering the fact that you can get Holmes a full 2 1/2 rounds after Austin goes (5 rounds later according to my league-mate), I think it shows that Holmes is pretty well under-valued.

 

[adrenaline]

In the 1st six games with Romo last season Austin was on pace for 1397 yards, Holmes did his damage on a different team with a different QB.

Austin by miles for me.

 

[Dragon1952]

In the 1st six games with Romo last season Austin was on pace for 1397 yards, Holmes did his damage on a different team with a different QB.

Austin by miles for me.

Ha ha .... very cute But seriously...by miles? If Greene is going to be the main guy this year for the Jets, those 79 targets to Tomlinson are history as well as the 100 to Braylon possibly. Holmes could see 150 targets....or more!

 

[adrenaline]

In the 1st six games with Romo last season Austin was on pace for 1397 yards, Holmes did his damage on a different team with a different QB.

Austin by miles for me.

Ha ha .... very cute But seriously...by miles? If Greene is going to be the main guy this year for the Jets, those 79 targets to Tomlinson are history as well as the 100 to Braylon possibly. Holmes could see 150 targets....or more!

For me it's more the lack of accuracy from Sanchez than anyone else on the Jets. Keller could probably be good in a different situation too. I'll admit it, I don't want anything to do with the Jets passing game.

 

[sihaokills]

I like Miles Austin more... He is more matured and with Romo back, everything should go smoothly

 

[TheBottomLine]

While I'm a huge Santonio Holmes fan, I would certainly prefer Austin over him. And, I also don't necessarily think they're neck and neck. With a healthy Romo, Austin is more the 80/1300/11 guy he was in '09 as opposed to the 69/1000/7 guy he was last season. I do agree that Holmes is a little underrated and that this season he could receive a lot of targets and put up good numbers, but in New York I think his best season is more of a 80/1200/8 year as opposed to Austin's potential to go for a dozen touchdowns. There's just no guarantee that even his best season will equal what Austin is capable of with Romo under center. Nobody will root harder for Holmes than myself, and I do expect him to go over 1000 yards and push 8 touchdowns, but Miles is a safe bet to exceed those numbers with Romo slinging it to him.

 

[Dragon1952]

While I'm a huge Santonio Holmes fan, I would certainly prefer Austin over him. And, I also don't necessarily think they're neck and neck. With a healthy Romo, Austin is more the 80/1300/11 guy he was in '09 as opposed to the 69/1000/7 guy he was last season. I do agree that Holmes is a little underrated and that this season he could receive a lot of targets and put up good numbers, but in New York I think his best season is more of a 80/1200/8 year as opposed to Austin's potential to go for a dozen touchdowns. There's just no guarantee that even his best season will equal what Austin is capable of with Romo under center. Nobody will root harder for Holmes than myself, and I do expect him to go over 1000 yards and push 8 touchdowns, but Miles is a safe bet to exceed those numbers with Romo slinging it to him.

But 80/1300/11 isn't that far from 80/1200/8 to have to throw in a top 12 RB to equal things out. That was the main argument I had. I really think Holmes has a good chance at 10 TD's this season.

 

[David Yudkin]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.

Holmes played 12 regular season games and 3 playoff games for the Jets for a total of 61-873-8. That puts him at a 16-game baseline (based solely on his numbers with the Jets) of 65-931-9.

I realize that Holmes could do better his second year in New York (assuming that he stays in New York) and that Austin could see his numbers drop with White taking on a bigger role. But in PPR leagues, Austin has a sizeable advantage scoringwise (342.6 points vs. 212.1 for Holmes), so unless people see a HUGE drop off for Austin and a giant leap forward from Holmes, I don't see the love for Holmes in a headsup comparison.

 

[sihaokills]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.Holmes played 12 regular season games and 3 playoff games for the Jets for a total of 61-873-8. That puts him at a 16-game baseline (based solely on his numbers with the Jets) of 65-931-9.I realize that Holmes could do better his second year in New York (assuming that he stays in New York) and that Austin could see his numbers drop with White taking on a bigger role. But in PPR leagues, Austin has a sizeable advantage scoringwise (342.6 points vs. 212.1 for Holmes), so unless people see a HUGE drop off for Austin and a giant leap forward from Holmes, I don't see the love for Holmes in a headsup comparison.

 

[massraider]

I take Austin, and hope Dez goes to the mall regularly.

 

[hostile]

I think people are grossly over-estimating Bryant's impact on Austin, and in this scenario, under-estimating Holmes' knucklehead factor.

Even after his last suspension, he defiantly said he was going to continue his chronic ways (cant find link). Anyway, that was his second suspension under the league's drug policy which means he's one slip-up away from a year-long suspension.

 

[Dragon1952]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.

Holmes played 12 regular season games and 3 playoff games for the Jets for a total of 61-873-8. That puts him at a 16-game baseline (based solely on his numbers with the Jets) of 65-931-9.

I realize that Holmes could do better his second year in New York (assuming that he stays in New York) and that Austin could see his numbers drop with White taking on a bigger role. But in PPR leagues, Austin has a sizeable advantage scoringwise (342.6 points vs. 212.1 for Holmes), so unless people see a HUGE drop off for Austin and a giant leap forward from Holmes, I don't see the love for Holmes in a headsup comparison.

Good grief...you've got to be kidding. That's an absurd point difference. That's 8 ppg! I would be glad to revisit this at the end of the season. I would be willing to bet that it will be closer to 2 ppg either way.

 

[JPeso]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.

Holmes played 12 regular season games and 3 playoff games for the Jets for a total of 61-873-8. That puts him at a 16-game baseline (based solely on his numbers with the Jets) of 65-931-9.

I realize that Holmes could do better his second year in New York (assuming that he stays in New York) and that Austin could see his numbers drop with White taking on a bigger role. But in PPR leagues, Austin has a sizeable advantage scoringwise (342.6 points vs. 212.1 for Holmes), so unless people see a HUGE drop off for Austin and a giant leap forward from Holmes, I don't see the love for Holmes in a headsup comparison.

Good grief...you've got to be kidding. That's an absurd point difference. That's 8 ppg! I would be glad to revisit this at the end of the season. I would be willing to bet that it will be closer to 2 ppg either way.

I'll take the over on 2 PPG difference. 8 PPG isn't happening but Austin is worth quite a bit more to me.

 

[Real Man of Genius]

So, 342 points would be WR1 most years (only Randy Moss (twice) and Torry Holt have bested that since 2003). Does Austin's ADP (WR9) seem a bit off to anybody? I think he's a great buy low this year.

 

[az_prof]

I like Holmes' talent better, but I like Austin's QB better. To me, they are pretty close but I would put Austin slightly ahead of Holmes. The trade offer was ridiculous and you did well to laugh at it.

 

[JPeso]

To begin, I am not asking for advice. This is to settle a difference of opinion and to open discussion. I turned down a trade today that had me giving up Holmes and a top 10-15 dynasty ranked RB for Austin and a TE ranked at around the TE15 range

Who was RB and TE?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In the 1st six games with Romo last season Austin was on pace for 1397 yards, Holmes did his damage on a different team with a different QB.

Austin by miles for me.

Ha ha .... very cute But seriously...by miles? If Greene is going to be the main guy this year for the Jets, those 79 targets to Tomlinson are history as well as the 100 to Braylon possibly. Holmes could see 150 targets....or more!

Tomlinson will still be used as the thrid down back and will see targets (perhaps not 79) - while I'm a big fan of Holmes' game, Austin is more talented (not by much though) and in a superior offense for fantasy production. The ADP data looks right to me on how I'd rank the two players.

 

[Faust]

Miles Austin will be the preferred choice for the majority here for good reasons, but Holmes shouldn't be overlooked either.

Greg Cosell recently posted the following on Twitter:

Greg Cosell

Holmes/R. White interesting comparison. Different. Holmes smoother, more fluid. White bigger, more physical presence. Holmes more explosive.

15 Jul

Greg Cosell

Holmes skill set to play in any offense. Can play "x" (weak side) or "z" (strong side, more motion + movement). Excellent RAC ability.

15 Jul

Greg Cosell

Very anxious to see where Holmes goes. Studied him hard on film. Top 5 WR. Fluid intermediate route runner. Can stretch defense vertically.

15 Jul

 

[Dragon1952]

To begin, I am not asking for advice. This is to settle a difference of opinion and to open discussion. I turned down a trade today that had me giving up Holmes and a top 10-15 dynasty ranked RB for Austin and a TE ranked at around the TE15 range

Who was RB and TE?

I didn't want to make this sound like an Assistant Coach thread so I didn't list the entire offer, but I guess it's OK now.Holmes and Gore for Austin and Hernandez. Besides the fact that it would have left me with 1 startable RB and I didn't need a TE, I still thought it was a bad offer and said so when he mentioned 'counter offer?' He was quite surprised that I thought it was that bad and we proceeded to have a pretty lengthy discussion, hence this thread.

 

[JPeso]

To begin, I am not asking for advice. This is to settle a difference of opinion and to open discussion. I turned down a trade today that had me giving up Holmes and a top 10-15 dynasty ranked RB for Austin and a TE ranked at around the TE15 range

Who was RB and TE?

I didn't want to make this sound like an Assistant Coach thread so I didn't list the entire offer, but I guess it's OK now.Holmes and Gore for Austin and Hernandez. Besides the fact that it would have left me with 1 startable RB and I didn't need a TE, I still thought it was a bad offer and said so when he mentioned 'counter offer?' He was quite surprised that I thought it was that bad and we proceeded to have a pretty lengthy discussion, hence this thread.

I can see both ends. All else being equal I take Austin/Hernandez. Obviously all else isn't equal as it would have left you weak at RB.

 

[Dragon1952]

So, 342 points would be WR1 most years (only Randy Moss (twice) and Torry Holt have bested that since 2003). Does Austin's ADP (WR9) seem a bit off to anybody? I think he's a great buy low this year.

Yes, in leagues with 6 pt TD's, 1 pt/10 yds recvg and 1 pt PPR, 342 pts would have put him as WR1 last year over Roddy White by 25 pts, and WR1 in 2009 over A. Johnson by 27 pts and both of those guys were ahead of the WR2 already by 27 and 31 pts. It would also have put him ahead of all but 2 RB in 2009 (C. Johnson and by just a pt behind ADP), and only behind Foster last year and a whopping 28 pts ahead of Hillis' great year.Good luck getting those #'s. But yeah, if people thought he could really do that I would say his ADP is a bit off.

 

[Patoons]

Holmes played 12 regular season games and 3 playoff games for the Jets for a total of 61-873-8. That puts him at a 16-game baseline (based solely on his numbers with the Jets) of 65-931-9.

I'd argue that those 12 regular season games included weeks 5 & 6 where Holmes played in limited action (roughly 40% of the team's snaps). Week 17 he only played 17 snaps. The first two weeks were clearly a time where he was getting back into football shape. The baseline seems to be a bit higher than you've suggested above given the suspension and his time to assimilate with his new team. I'd suggest more like 75-1100 as the baseline. People are seriously down on Holmes, but there is reason for optimism even with the Jets given the amount of snaps he played in weeks 5, 6, and 17 due to the circumstances.

 

[David Yudkin]

Holmes played 12 regular season games and 3 playoff games for the Jets for a total of 61-873-8. That puts him at a 16-game baseline (based solely on his numbers with the Jets) of 65-931-9.

I'd argue that those 12 regular season games included weeks 5 & 6 where Holmes played in limited action (roughly 40% of the team's snaps). Week 17 he only played 17 snaps. The first two weeks were clearly a time where he was getting back into football shape. The baseline seems to be a bit higher than you've suggested above given the suspension and his time to assimilate with his new team. I'd suggest more like 75-1100 as the baseline. People are seriously down on Holmes, but there is reason for optimism even with the Jets given the amount of snaps he played in weeks 5, 6, and 17 due to the circumstances.

As I said initially, this situation is a clear case of pick what numbers you want to use to make your case as there is no clear cut answer.With regard to the games you referenced, the Jets passed for 190 yards, 190 yards, and about 110 yards in those 3 games where Holmes apparently played fewer snaps. Personally, I have a hard time thinking that if Holmes played more given the ebb and flow of the game that his numbers would have been jacked up by a substantial amount. We don't know what we don't know, and how he would have done with more playing team is a complete unknown.If people want to rate Holmes as a 75-1100 baseline guy that is certainly their individual call. IMO, I am not prepared to evaluate him at that baseline, given that he's had more than 950 yards once in his 5 year career (and only one year over 55 receptions).If we look at his actual numbers over his career (regular and post season), projected over 16 games, Holmes baseline over 79 games would be: 63-1009-6. Maybe some will say he should be higher in Year 2 on the Jets (if there is one). Maybe some will say his baseline could be higher on another team (depends on the team, I guess).This is not to say I am anti-Holmes. I think he has upside higher than the numbers I just listed, and at a certain point in a draft I think he would be a guy I would target. But I still, for me, feel Austin will put up better numbers next year. Again, who will be a better value will depend on where each player was drafted.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I'd rather have Miles Austin, not even close..

 

[Crippler]

Kind of funny that i went after Holmes with hoping his perceived value was 5th rounder and asked about using Mike Wallace. Now dynasty and the offer was Vick and Wallace for Rodgers, Holmes and 2012 2nd but was told he would not trade Holmes straight up for Wallace

So it really comes down to if you own or dont. I find that someone that owns Holmes will probably be high on him. I do in my other league and would not trade him for Austin but that is personal preference. I think Romo is overrated and there is less balls to go around. Love what Holmes did once he got into a groove last year. Hopefully he signs right away. Dez becomes the go to guy in Dallas and Miles ends up like Alvin Harper

 

[finito]

I like Austin over Holmes but don't think there's a huge gap. Holmes is a very good WR.

 

[fightingillini]

Talent wise, I don't see much difference between Holmes and Austin.....both are very talented.

But Austin is in a much better situation with the much better QB and a more pass friendly offense. I am in the Dez Bryant is going to break out camp, so while I would prefer Austin over Holmes, it isn't by a wide margin. Both have upside that's limited for different reasons....Holmes due to NYJ run first offense and Sanchez, Austin due to competition with Bryant and Witten for targets. It's Austin only due to the DAL pie being much bigger than the NYJ pie.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

I think we need to wait a week or two and see if Holmes lands in a great situation. Even if Holmes is a Jet, the gap isn't as big as most people believe. If a few things unfold in the next week and Vincent Jackson is a UFA, Holmes could land in a crazy situation.

It seems like everyone is saying talent wise they're close. I give the edge to Holmes, but Romo is head and shoulders ahead of Sanchez. What happens if he has Rivers or someone in that range throwing to him?

 

[Faust]

I think we need to wait a week or two and see if Holmes lands in a great situation. Even if Holmes is a Jet, the gap isn't as big as most people believe. If a few things unfold in the next week and Vincent Jackson is a UFA, Holmes could land in a crazy situation. It seems like everyone is saying talent wise they're close. I give the edge to Holmes, but Romo is head and shoulders ahead of Sanchez. What happens if he has Rivers or someone in that range throwing to him?

This is the missing part of the equation - while we know that the Jets will make every effort to re-sign Holmes, there are a number of teams who have significant cap room and it isn't a forgone conclusion that Holmes will stay with the Jets. Holmes value will be dependent upon the team that he signs with, but resigning with the Jets wouldn't be a bad thing, as he did develop a rapport with Sanchez and he is talented.

 

[Birdie048]

I strongly prefer Austin over Holmes as well, and my reasoning is a combination of issues already covered...

Romo is by far a more advanced passing QB than Sanchez

Dallas has a strong passing attack and a marginal running attack

NYJ have little passing attack and a strong running attack

NYJ WR's future is uncertain (Holmes & Edwards destiny is cloudy)

Dez & Witten will reduce double coverage on Austin

Austin has a stronger YAC (437 v 229 yards)

Austin has a better Catch per target ration (58.3% vs 54.7%)

Austin has a higher % Team targets (21.8% vs 18.5%)

Holmes was the #4 target on all NYJ Passing Attempts (behind LT, 2.1% behind Keller & 1.5% behind Edwards)

Austin was #2 on % Targets on all Dallas Passing Attempts(0.4% behind Witten)

The decision to pass on acquiring Holmes is a personal one.... this game is all about gut and belief. If you feel you Holmes is close to Austin's value, than that is your opinion. Nothing wrong with an opinion.

Others, my self included, believe that Austin is a stronger fantasy football value player than Holmes.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

This is the missing part of the equation - while we know that the Jets will make every effort to re-sign Holmes, there are a number of teams who have significant cap room and it isn't a forgone conclusion that Holmes will stay with the Jets. Holmes value will be dependent upon the team that he signs with, but resigning with the Jets wouldn't be a bad thing, as he did develop a rapport with Sanchez and he is talented.

Washington, Chicago and maybe even the Patriots could use Holmes. San Diego as well. Any of those teams I think would give him a boost fantasy wise.

 

[FF Ninja]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.

Sorry to nitpick, but you accidentally took his 19 game total and counted it as 18 games to get your 16 game baseline. It doesn't change it much, as can be seen in the post I swiped from the Miles Austin thread below:

Austin broke onto the scene in game 5 for the Cowboys in '09. During the last 12 games of the season he put up 76/1239/10 which extrapolates to 101/1652/13. The next season they picked up right where they left off. In 5 games Austin put up 33/486/2 which extrapolates to 106/1555/6. If you want to add the two seasons together you get 17 games 109/1725/12 which interpolates to 103/1623/11. Adding in the 2 playoff games drops that 16 game interpolation to 101/1592/11.

14.725 ppg vs. 14.075 ppgMy own two cents is that I'd consider them very close to equal if they were both in optimal situations. Right now I'd say they are almost in opposite situations. Romo has a great connection with Austin, while Holmes is likely to be stuck with one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Sanchez had probably the worst completion percentage of any starter not named Derek Anderson. He threw the ball almost 32 times a game and barely hit 200 ypg. Whereas Romo threw for 280 in '09 and was averaging 313 before injury in '10. He has also proven the ability to throw over 30 TDs, averaging 1.98 per game in the last 4 years. Sanchez threw 1.06 per game last year. We are talking about close to 50% more yards and 100% more TDs to go around in Dallas.

If Holmes moves to a pass happy offense as the #1 WR then it will be time to revisit the subject. He definitely becomes a value play if his ADP doesn't sky rocket into the third. But all signs point to the Jets doing their best to bring him back.

But aren't the Jets one of the teams over the expected salary cap, though? That could be interesting. For the guy trading Holmes, his value is at a low while people expect him on the Jets. Should probably hold off on shopping him on the chance that he signs in a better situation. His value can only go up after free agency.

 

[Faust]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.

Sorry to nitpick, but you accidentally took his 19 game total and counted it as 18 games to get your 16 game baseline. It doesn't change it much, as can be seen in the post I swiped from the Miles Austin thread below:

Austin broke onto the scene in game 5 for the Cowboys in '09. During the last 12 games of the season he put up 76/1239/10 which extrapolates to 101/1652/13. The next season they picked up right where they left off. In 5 games Austin put up 33/486/2 which extrapolates to 106/1555/6. If you want to add the two seasons together you get 17 games 109/1725/12 which interpolates to 103/1623/11. Adding in the 2 playoff games drops that 16 game interpolation to 101/1592/11.

14.725 ppg vs. 14.075 ppgMy own two cents is that I'd consider them very close to equal if they were both in optimal situations. Right now I'd say they are almost in opposite situations. Romo has a great connection with Austin, while Holmes is likely to be stuck with one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Sanchez had probably the worst completion percentage of any starter not named Derek Anderson. He threw the ball almost 32 times a game and barely hit 200 ypg. Whereas Romo threw for 280 in '09 and was averaging 313 before injury in '10. He has also proven the ability to throw over 30 TDs, averaging 1.98 per game in the last 4 years. Sanchez threw 1.06 per game last year. We are talking about close to 50% more yards and 100% more TDs to go around in Dallas.

If Holmes moves to a pass happy offense as the #1 WR then it will be time to revisit the subject. He definitely becomes a value play if his ADP doesn't sky rocket into the third. But all signs point to the Jets doing their best to bring him back.

But aren't the Jets one of the teams over the expected salary cap, though? That could be interesting. For the guy trading Holmes, his value is at a low while people expect him on the Jets. Should probably hold off on shopping him on the chance that he signs in a better situation. His value can only go up after free agency.

Yes, according to the following article, the Jets are one of the teams who are currently over the cap proposed in the new CBA:

Reggie Bush, others on shaky ground

Cap situations*

N.Y. Jets $1.2 million over

*Does not include restricted free-agent tenders.

 

[Dragon1952]

I guess a lot would depend on which numbers people want to use to manipulate their argument. Since Austin's coming out game and taking on a full-time starting role, he has played in 17 regular season games with Romo as his QB. In those games, he has posted 109-1725-12. If you add in two playoff games, that total becomes 120-1841-13. That gives Austin a 16-game baseline of: 107-1636-12.

Sorry to nitpick, but you accidentally took his 19 game total and counted it as 18 games to get your 16 game baseline. It doesn't change it much, as can be seen in the post I swiped from the Miles Austin thread below:

Austin broke onto the scene in game 5 for the Cowboys in '09. During the last 12 games of the season he put up 76/1239/10 which extrapolates to 101/1652/13. The next season they picked up right where they left off. In 5 games Austin put up 33/486/2 which extrapolates to 106/1555/6. If you want to add the two seasons together you get 17 games 109/1725/12 which interpolates to 103/1623/11. Adding in the 2 playoff games drops that 16 game interpolation to 101/1592/11.

14.725 ppg vs. 14.075 ppgMy own two cents is that I'd consider them very close to equal if they were both in optimal situations. Right now I'd say they are almost in opposite situations. Romo has a great connection with Austin, while Holmes is likely to be stuck with one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Sanchez had probably the worst completion percentage of any starter not named Derek Anderson. He threw the ball almost 32 times a game and barely hit 200 ypg. Whereas Romo threw for 280 in '09 and was averaging 313 before injury in '10. He has also proven the ability to throw over 30 TDs, averaging 1.98 per game in the last 4 years. Sanchez threw 1.06 per game last year. We are talking about close to 50% more yards and 100% more TDs to go around in Dallas.

If Holmes moves to a pass happy offense as the #1 WR then it will be time to revisit the subject. He definitely becomes a value play if his ADP doesn't sky rocket into the third. But all signs point to the Jets doing their best to bring him back.

But aren't the Jets one of the teams over the expected salary cap, though? That could be interesting. For the guy trading Holmes, his value is at a low while people expect him on the Jets. Should probably hold off on shopping him on the chance that he signs in a better situation. His value can only go up after free agency.

Actually I (the Holmes owner) was approached with the offer....Gore/Holmes for Austin/Hernandez.

My own two cents is that I'd consider them very close to equal if they were both in optimal situations. Right now I'd say they are almost in opposite situations. Romo has a great connection with Austin, while Holmes is likely to be stuck with one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Sanchez had probably the worst completion percentage of any starter not named Derek Anderson. He threw the ball almost 32 times a game and barely hit 200 ypg. Whereas Romo threw for 280 in '09 and was averaging 313 before injury in '10. He has also proven the ability to throw over 30 TDs, averaging 1.98 per game in the last 4 years. Sanchez threw 1.06 per game last year. We are talking about close to 50% more yards and 100% more TDs to go around in Dallas.

If Holmes moves to a pass happy offense as the #1 WR then it will be time to revisit the subject. He definitely becomes a value play if his ADP doesn't sky rocket into the third. But all signs point to the Jets doing their best to bring him back.

But aren't the Jets one of the teams over the expected salary cap, though? That could be interesting. For the guy trading Holmes, his value is at a low while people expect him on the Jets. Should probably hold off on shopping him on the chance that he signs in a better situation. His value can only go up after free agency.

Absolutely. However, giving him the benefit of the doubt, he had a 4 game suspension, then played 2 games before the Week 7 bye, then a tough week 8 game against the Packers. So that's a total of just 3 games with Sanchez so far. If you look at Weeks 9-16 (he played sparingly with Brunell at QB in week 17)he and Sanchez obviously became more comfortable with each other as Holmes was the 6th most productive WR in total FP's (tied with Steve Johnson) averaging 16.28 per game. In 3 playoff games he was 9/127/2, so if you add that to the Week 9-16 stretch it comes to 50/852/7 (74 targets) in 11 games. Projected over 16 games it comes to (rounding off) 73/1054/10 on 148 targets. And that in the 1st year with a new team/offense/QB and with the suspension.Sanchez is only going into his 3rd year so you can't really say he sucks yet. He showed improvement in year 2 so if he shows more improvement I don't see why those numbers can't be a realistic baseline for Holmes, which would have put Holmes in the WR12-13 range over the past 2 years.

 

[bengalbuck]

The average ranking of the 4 footballguys writers has Miles #37 and Holmes #45:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty&howrecent=7

That would seem to support your assertion that they are pretty close in value.

For what its worth, I think those consensus rankings are pretty close to where I'd have them ranked. I don't see value in Miles until you get to the late 3rd/early 4th and I think once you get to the late 4th Holmes starts to become best player available.