Science of Drafting: Wide Receivers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

As an Eagles fan, there is an unhealthy obsession with the WR position. The Eagles have two notorious whiffs early in McNabb's tenure under center (Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell); then we had the TO debacle, and now we have Reggie Brown appearing to be no better than a WR2 tops, better as a WR3. It's hard to have a conversation with another Eagles fan without the issue of our WR corps coming up.

Following this weekend's draft, my buddies who sit with me at the games were ranting on email about how poorly we draft WRs; refusing to even consider that DeSean Jackson MIGHT be helpful to the team in some capacity. That led to a discussion about Reggie Brown and how he's not panned out. I countered by saying that, while Reggie Brown doesn't appear to be a stud, we could've done worse.

Here are the top 20 WRs drafted in 2005:

1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan

2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina

3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC

4 1 21 21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas

5 1 22 22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma

6 1 27 27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham

7 2 3 35 Reggie Brown Eagles Georgia

8 2 7 39 Mark Bradley Bears Oklahoma

9 2 23 55 Roscoe Parrish Bills Miami (FL)

10 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy Packers Texas A&M

11 2 29 61 Vincent Jackson Chargers Northern Colorado

12 3 4 68 Courtney Roby Titans Indiana

13 3 19 83 Chris Henry Bengals West Virginia

14 3 32 96 Brandon Jones Titans Oklahoma

15 4 13 114 Jerome Mathis Texans Hampton

16 4 15 116 Craphonso Thorpe Chiefs Florida State

17 4 17 118 Chase Lyman Saints California

18 4 30 131 Fred Gibson Steelers Georgia

19 4 35 136 Roydell Williams Titans Tulane

20 5 4 140 Airese Currie Bears Clemson

Seems to me that only three receivers in that class are legitimately better than Reggie Brown (those in bold) and none of them were on the board when we picked. You could possibly argue that Vincent Jackson and Brandon Jones may be better, but that's projecting what you expect of them in the future versus what each has done to this point in their careers.

My point is not to defend the selection of Reggie Brown but more to illustrate just what an inexact science drafting is, for any team.

We Eagles fans are fond of beating ourselves up over Freddie Mitchell, because some of the league's best receivers were available at that pick and we passed on them. Yet, we weren't alone. Take a look at the WR class from 2001:

1 1 8 8 David Terrell Bears Michigan

2 1 9 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks North Carolina State

3 1 15 15 Rod Gardner Redskins Clemson

4 1 16 16 Santana Moss Jets Miami (FL)

5 1 25 25 Freddie Mitchell Eagles UCLA

6 1 30 30 Reggie Wayne Colts Miami (FL)

7 2 2 33 Quincy Morgan Browns Kansas State

8 2 5 36 Chad Johnson Bengals Oregon State

9 2 10 41 Robert Ferguson Packers Texas A&M

10 2 21 52 Chris Chambers Dolphins Wisconsin

11 3 12 74 Steve Smith Panthers Utah

12 3 15 77 Marvin Minnis Chiefs Florida State

13 4 21 116 Milton Wynn Rams Washington State

14 4 29 124 Justin McCareins Titans Northern Illinois

15 4 36 131 Cedric James Vikings Texas Christian

16 5 5 136 Vinny Sutherland Falcons Purdue

17 5 9 140 Alex Bannister Seahawks Eastern Kentucky

18 5 17 148 Scotty Anderson Lions Grambling State

19 5 22 153 Onomoe Ojo Saints California-Davis

20 5 23 154 Darnerian McCants Redskins Delaware State

21 5 28 159 Eddie Berlin Titans Northern Iowa

22 5 31 162 Jonathan Carter Giants Troy State

23 6 3 166 Bobby Newcombe Cardinals Nebraska

24 6 6 169 Cedrick Wilson 49ers Tennessee

25 6 27 190 Kevin Kasper Broncos Iowa

26 6 34 197 Francis S. Paul Rams Northern Arizona

27 6 35 198 David Martin Packers Tennessee

28 7 4 204 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Bengals Oregon State

29 7 8 208 John Capel Bears Florida

30 7 14 214 Reggie Germany Bills Ohio State

31 7 18 218 Chris Taylor Steelers Texas A&M

32 7 29 229 Ken-Yon Rambo Raiders Ohio State

33 7 35 235 Richmond Flowers Jaguars Chattanooga

34 7 36 236 Quentin McCord Falcons Kentucky

35 7 45 245 Andre King Browns Miami (FL)

Clearly, this was an unusually talented draft class; which makes the Bears whiff of David Terrell 8th overall that much tougher to handle. That said, just look at the guys interspersed with Ocho Cinco, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne. Koren Robinson went ahead of them all. 50/50 went 15th overall. Quincy Morgan and Robert Ferguson went ahead of Steve Smith! And alllllll the way down in the late 7th round is T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Now scouts saw plenty of Housh. You couldn't have scouted Chad Johnson and not seen Housh; yet he was basically considered an afterthought by most teams.

What's the takeaway here? That predicting a team's success based on the outcome of the draft is a sucker bet. It's a humbling thing to look at some of these draft results and put yourself into a scout's shoes. There are so many variables that go into a player's success, margin for error is astronomical.

 

[Abraham]

There are so many variables that go into a player's success, margin for error is astronomical.

I'd be interested to see this type of analysis run on other positions, particularly OT and TE.There are tons of factors that go in to whether a player will succeed or not. While I like Reggie Wayne a lot as a player, it didn't hurt that he was asked to come in to the most potent passing attack in the league and learn under the tutelage of a future HOF'er. On the flip side, I'm not sure there is a circumstance imaginable where any of the WRs on the list could have gone to Chicago or Cleveland and succeeded.

 

[renesauz]

Kind of makes you wonder why teams would ever bother taking a WR in the first. Seems your odds of landing a stud are just as good in the second and third rounds.

 

[renesauz]

There are so many variables that go into a player's success, margin for error is astronomical.

I'd be interested to see this type of analysis run on other positions, particularly OT and TE.There are tons of factors that go in to whether a player will succeed or not. While I like Reggie Wayne a lot as a player, it didn't hurt that he was asked to come in to the most potent passing attack in the league and learn under the tutelage of a future HOF'er. On the flip side, I'm not sure there is a circumstance imaginable where any of the WRs on the list could have gone to Chicago or Cleveland and succeeded.

Have to disagree there. Some really good WR's have developed, even shined, on some horrible teams. Braylon Edwards was a stud before the Browns got good. So was a certain Texans WR. How about Cotchery in NY..the passing capital of the East. Let's not forget about Steve Smith...remember him? Yeah, Carolina is another place well known for aerial firepower and all-pro QB's.It seems that good WR's develope in all sorts of situations, and some of the better ones developed in some of the most horrific situations. I think, if we looked closer, we might find the exact opposite...that WR's have an EASIER time developing on the poorer teams.

 

[Jason Wood]

There are so many variables that go into a player's success, margin for error is astronomical.

I'd be interested to see this type of analysis run on other positions, particularly OT and TE.There are tons of factors that go in to whether a player will succeed or not. While I like Reggie Wayne a lot as a player, it didn't hurt that he was asked to come in to the most potent passing attack in the league and learn under the tutelage of a future HOF'er. On the flip side, I'm not sure there is a circumstance imaginable where any of the WRs on the list could have gone to Chicago or Cleveland and succeeded.

Easy enough...I'll just take the same two years for consistency sake (I have the data available and ready):Offensive Tackles in 2005:

1 1 13 13 Jammal Brown Saints Oklahoma

2 1 19 19 Alex Barron Rams Florida State

3 2 9 41 Michael Roos Titans Eastern Washington

4 2 17 49 Marcus Johnson Vikings Mississippi

5 2 20 52 Khalif Barnes Jaguars Washington

6 2 32 64 Adam Terry Ravens Syracuse

7 3 27 91 Chris Colmer Buccaneers North Carolina State

8 3 29 93 Trai Essex Steelers Northwestern

9 4 4 105 Ray Willis Seahawks Florida State

10 4 12 113 David Stewart Titans Mississippi State

11 4 25 126 Todd Herremans Eagles Saginaw Valley State

12 5 14 150 Daniel Loper Titans Texas Tech

13 5 17 153 Adam Kieft Bengals Central Michigan

14 5 26 162 Anthony Alabi Dolphins Texas Christian

15 5 27 163 Frank Omiyale Falcons Tennessee Tech

16 5 28 164 Wesley Britt Chargers Alabama

17 6 13 187 Will Svitek Chiefs Stanford

18 6 33 207 Joe Berger Panthers Michigan Tech

19 6 35 209 Rob Petitti Cowboys Pittsburgh

20 6 37 211 Calvin Armstrong Eagles Washington State

21 6 40 214 Pete McMahon Raiders Iowa

22 7 3 217 Jon Dunn Browns Virginia Tech

23 7 24 238 Jeremy Parquet Chiefs Southern Mississippi

24 7 40 254 Doug Nienhuis Seahawks Oregon State

Not a lot of stars jumping off that list. But your Titans in particular did really well. They hit on both Roos and Stewart. It's not too often a team lands their two tackles in the same draft. Jammal Brown has been as good, or better, than most and seems befitting of the top selection. The Eagles selected Todd Herremans with the plan to move him inside, and he's been a starter for the majority of his career in Philly. Herremans is really the last guy of any consequence on that list; the 5th-7th rounders haven't unearthed any gems yet.

Here is the 2001 Tackle Class:

1 1 2 2 Leonard Davis Cardinals Texas

2 1 14 14 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers Florida

3 1 18 18 Jeff Backus Lions Michigan

4 2 12 43 Maurice Williams Jaguars Michigan

5 2 17 48 Matt Light Patriots Purdue

6 3 17 79 Kareem McKenzie Jets Penn State

7 3 33 95 Jonas Jennings Bills Georgia

8 4 1 96 Kenyatta Jones Patriots South Florida

9 4 16 111 Mathias Nkwenti Steelers Temple

10 4 23 118 Ryan Diem Colts Northern Illinois

11 5 1 132 Elliot Silvers Chargers Washington

12 5 7 138 Bernard Robertson Bears Tulane

13 5 13 144 Marques Sullivan Bills Illinois

14 5 25 156 Shawn Draper Dolphins Alabama

15 6 1 164 Brandon Winey Dolphins Louisiana State

16 6 22 185 Mitch White Saints Oregon State

17 7 1 201 Brandon Gorin Chargers Purdue

18 7 11 211 Louis Williams Panthers Louisiana State

19 7 17 217 Situpe Peko Jets Michigan State

20 7 20 220 Rick DeMulling Colts Idaho State

21 7 22 222 Dennis Norman Seahawks Princeton

22 7 25 225 Brian Crawford Vikings Western Oregon

23 7 42 242 Char-ron Dorsey Cowboys Florida State

This looks like one of the worst tackle classes in a long, long time. Leonard Davis is now a star, but as a guard for another team. Backus is capable but not a star, although he's fared better than those drafted right before and after him. Matt Light is the guy that jumps off the page here; seems that the Patriots hit on him when, if I recall, a lot of people classified that pick as a reach at the time. The Colts hit on both their guys, with DeMulling starting inside for a few seasons for them. Gorin played admirably, but for the Pats not the Chargers.

 

[Bri]

the WR spot is where combine and pro day "measurables" hurt teams. Teams would draft so much better if they didn't know an actual hard figure for times (and sometimes height and weight too) run.

I'll always think that Undrafted free agent the Bears signed that broke Rice's record.....what's his name....he should have been drafted. Cut later? maybe but we'll see if he catches on with his new team. There's all these fast WRs with long arms or good ups getting teams all excited. How about hustle, route running, production, understanding Ds to find a soft spot etc.

Jets landed some nobody named Stuckey, he looked good in preseason; better than many name players. Chrebet, years ago, try explaining most of the others being drafted. There was a dozen or so Stuckey's in camps last year. These Stuckeys won't be Chrebet, plenty of players won't be like him with his hustle and heart. However, it does prove that the wrong traits are valued OR the "little things" are not valued enough.

If in FF you stunk this bad at drafting WRs, you'd rethink things. Most NFL teams keep rolling with measurables despite their lack of success.

I say most because I don't think they all miss this glaring point, it's alot of teams though.

CB isn't any different, same measurables getting GMs excited.

 

[Sebowski]

This is why I ma happy about the Skins drafting two top guys. If just one pans out I will be very pleased.

Of course right now I expect them both to make the pro bowl.

 

[The Jerk]

There are so many variables that go into a player's success, margin for error is astronomical.

I'd be interested to see this type of analysis run on other positions, particularly OT and TE.There are tons of factors that go in to whether a player will succeed or not. While I like Reggie Wayne a lot as a player, it didn't hurt that he was asked to come in to the most potent passing attack in the league and learn under the tutelage of a future HOF'er. On the flip side, I'm not sure there is a circumstance imaginable where any of the WRs on the list could have gone to Chicago or Cleveland and succeeded.

Have to disagree there. Some really good WR's have developed, even shined, on some horrible teams. Braylon Edwards was a stud before the Browns got good. So was a certain Texans WR. How about Cotchery in NY..the passing capital of the East. Let's not forget about Steve Smith...remember him? Yeah, Carolina is another place well known for aerial firepower and all-pro QB's.It seems that good WR's develope in all sorts of situations, and some of the better ones developed in some of the most horrific situations. I think, if we looked closer, we might find the exact opposite...that WR's have an EASIER time developing on the poorer teams.

I think Abraham's point is not so much to specify WR or even individual teams but that there is a lot more to it than just the individual player's skill set and work habits.Extending this point in general, while we all know that it's important to wait a few years before we can accurately interpret the results of the draft, there's a lot more to it than just drafting sleepers or players with high upside. Certain teams are going to be better than others at developing players. I believe that some franchises could swap out entire drafts and even though they might have players that didn't fit their "system" as well, they would still be able to get more production out of them than the team that drafted them for their system. Combine a good scouting and front office for player evaluation with a coaching staff that knows how to develop players and use them wisely (place them in situations with the best chance to succeed), and you have a successful team.

 

[comfortably numb]

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