Second-Year Running Backs (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Second-Year Running BacksI would be interested in the thoughts from the Shark Pool to see which second-year running backs might be at risk in not matching or exceeding their rookie year production.

I am biased, as I have him in two leagues; however, I feel positive about Giovani Bernard's chances of improving on his rookie year production!

 

[EBF]

I've talked a bit about this already, but I think Bell/Lacy/Stacy produced good FF numbers more because they had a high volume of opportunities and less because they were dynamic playmakers. They weren't that great as runners, though they did some nice things as receivers. I'm not predicting imminent demise for any of three, but it wouldn't really surprise me much either. We'll know more in a couple weeks after we see what, if anything, their teams do at RB in the draft. If they can dodge that bullet then their redraft outlook should remain strong (though Bell will have to fend off Blount). From a dynasty perspective, I think all three are major candidates to underwhelm in the long run relative to their current market price. Non-premium talents going for premium prices.

 

[renesauz]

Not sure why you'd be so down on Lacy, but it's easy to see the other two not producing the same. Bell looked pretty pedestrian.

 

[ICON211]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

 

[MAC_32]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Disagree on Stacy though. He is legit and Fiaher is going to lean hard on him again. Rest, rock solid.

 

[EBF]

Not sure why you'd be so down on Lacy, but it's easy to see the other two not producing the same. Bell looked pretty pedestrian.

I liked Lacy the most of those guys before last season and I probably like him the most now. However, he currently ranks as the 13th overall player in April ADP on DLF. That seems wholly unjustified. He might not even be one of the top 13 RBs in the NFL, let alone one of the top 13 overall players (though age is obviously a factor as well). He did not have an outstanding rookie season like Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, MJD, or Chris Johnson. He was merely a solid, but unspectacular back in a wide open situation. If all you do is count the FF points without looking at how he got there, you might not recognize the distinction.

I don't see his immediate outlook changing next year barring a surprise, so I think he's pretty safe from a redraft standpoint. From a dynasty standpoint, there's a little more risk. Not totally out of the question for him to go the way of Anthony Thomas or LaMont Jordan, though I think being merely a solid starter on the Packers will be worth a lot as long as he can keep the job. They typically haven't prioritized the RB position, so I'd be surprised to see them add a mega talented challenger in the next year or two barring major struggles from Lacy.

All the same, you'd think he was a dominant force as a rookie based on some of the comments and responses when his name comes up. He was more of a compiler than a playmaker. His ability as a pass catcher covers up some of that though and should continue to help his FF output.

 

[Xue]

Bernard

Ball

Lacy

Stacy

Bell

I would draft Ball at the right price and flip him after he has a huge year and if Manning retires.

 

[Sweet Love]

Maybe its me, but does this Gio/BenJarvus situation look a lot like the Spiller/Jackson situation of 2013? I am not trying to take anything away from Gio, but are we throwing dirt on BenJarvus too quickly?

 

[Xue]

Maybe its me, but does this Gio/BenJarvus situation look a lot like the Spiller/Jackson situation of 2013? I am not trying to take anything away from Gio, but are we throwing dirt on BenJarvus too quickly?

No. Jackson is a Yards After Contact machine. Green-Ellis just an "innings eater" of RBs.

 

[EBF]

I think Bernard might be a lifetime committee back, but that doesn't mean BJGE is a threat.

I would not be surprised if the Bengals replaced BJGE in that role with a new face within a year or two. He's very average.

 

[Bayhawks]

Second-Year Running Backs

I would be interested in the thoughts from the Shark Pool to see which second-year running backs might be at risk in not matching or exceeding their rookie year production.

I am biased, as I have him in two leagues; however, I feel positive about Giovani Bernard's chances of improving on his rookie year production!

I wouldn't be "positive." Jackson has been OC/HC in 2003, 2007, 2010, and 2011; he hasn't had a lot of success with smaller RBs (Trung Canidate in 2003 & Warrick Dunn in 2007). Dunn had 265 touches, Canidate had 150. I believe that Bernard is a better RB than Canidate, but in '07, when Jackson became OC in Atl, Dunn was coming off 3 straight seasons with 300 touches and 1200+ YFS. Under Jackson, he got less than 270 touches and under 1000 YFS.

2014 2nd year RBs-

Lacy (IMO, #1 by a long shot).

Stacy-It doesn't matter if he "compiles" his numbers, b/c Fisher is a coach who lets his RB compile numbers. Except for Chris Johnson's rookie year (when he shared time with Lendale White), Fisher has tended to lean on 1 RB (he even tried to make Chris Brown a heavy touch RB). I see 325+ touches, 1300+ YFS, and double digit TDs.

Bernard/Bell-pretty comparable, FF-speaking

Bernard-250 touches, 1300 YFS, but "only" 8 TDs.

Bell-77% of the touches in the 13 games he played. While Blount might cut that number some, I would still expect Bell to get 70 of the touches. Based on Pitt's usage of their RBs under Tomlin, 70% of the touches means around 300-310 touches. Without improving on his YPC and YPR from his rookie season, that would be around 1250-1300 YFS. I'd expect 9-12 TDs.

Ellington-My least favorite sophomore RB. Under another HC, I'd like him more, but Arians doesn't use his RB in the passing game, and that will greatly diminish Ellington's FF value.

 

[Biabreakable]

Andre Ellington had 39 receptions in 15 games so 2.6 receptions a game and the Cardinals improved their offensive line by signing LT Jared Veldheer and Center Ted Larson. They will also get 1st round rookie guard Cooper back from injury.

They lost Andre Roberts in free agency and added TE John Carlson.

I think with the departure of Roberts there would be more targets for Ellington in a slot WR role. But perhaps a replacement player for Roberts will come through the draft.

 

[MAC_32]

Andre Ellington had 39 receptions in 15 games so 2.6 receptions a game and the Cardinals improved their offensive line by signing LT Jared Veldheer and Center Ted Larson. They will also get 1st round rookie guard Cooper back from injury.

They lost Andre Roberts in free agency and added TE John Carlson.

I think with the departure of Roberts there would be more targets for Ellington in a slot WR role. But perhaps a replacement player for Roberts will come through the draft.

i would be stunned if the cardinals do not draft a wr in round two - four

 

[Biabreakable]

Andre Ellington had 39 receptions in 15 games so 2.6 receptions a game and the Cardinals improved their offensive line by signing LT Jared Veldheer and Center Ted Larson. They will also get 1st round rookie guard Cooper back from injury.

They lost Andre Roberts in free agency and added TE John Carlson.

I think with the departure of Roberts there would be more targets for Ellington in a slot WR role. But perhaps a replacement player for Roberts will come through the draft.

i would be stunned if the cardinals do not draft a wr in round two - four

You are likely right. If they don't I am not seeing John Carlson replacing Roberts targets. Fitz being healthy could easily pick up the slack and/or Floyd. I just don't think Ellington is irrelevant as a receiving option because of Arians. I thought the same thing last season and Ellington catches 39 passes.

 

[Gawain]

1) Between 2003 and 2012, 33 rookie running backs have rushed for 600 or more yards. 22 of them have suffered a decline in yardage as sophomores.

2) Between 2003 and 2012, 12 rookie running backs have rushed for 1000 or more yards. Nine of them have suffered a decline in yardage as sophomores. The only three that didn’t were Domanick Williams, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson.

3) Between 2003 and 2012, 18 rookie running backs (with 600+ yards) have rushed for seven or more touchdowns. 13 of them have suffered a decline in touchdowns as sophomores. Jonathan Stewart stayed stagnant. Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai and Domanick Williams scored more as sophomores.

4) Between 2003 and 2012, four rookie running backs (with 600+ yards) averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Vick Ballard and Trent Richardson. All four of those suffered a decline in both yardage and touchdowns as sophomores.

5) Between 2003 and 2012, eight rookie running backs (with 600+ yards) averaged 5.0 yards per carry or more: Steven Jackson, Jerious Norwood, Maurice Jones-Drew, Selvin Young, Adrian Peterson, Chris Ivory, DeMarco Murray and LeGarrette Blount. Six of them suffered a decline in yardage as sophomores. Five of them suffered a decline in touchdowns as sophomores.

Is anyone good enough with football reference to run these parameters with every running back (not just rookies?)

At first glance, these look like big dropoffs, but I wonder if they are in sync with the average running back performance.

For the rookies:

1) 66% negative

2) 75% negative

3) 72% negative/78% negative

4) 100% negative

5) 75% negative/63% negative

Peterson (whole career):

1) 66% negative

2) 80% negative

3) 50% negative/83% negative

4) N/A

5) 50% negative/100% negative

CJ2K (career):

1) 60% negative

2) 60% negative

3) 66% negative

4) 0% negative (1 year under 4.0)

5) 100% negative (1 year over 5.0)

Steven Jackson (career):

1) 55% negative

2) 63% negative

3) 66% negative

4) 100% negative (1 year under 4.0)

5) 0% negative (1 year over 5.0, rookie year)

Barry Sanders (career):

1) 55% negative

2) 55% negative

3) 75% negative (increase over year to year)

4) N/A

5) 60% negative/50% negative (1 year tied in rush-TD total)

I think in general all players will have more negative seasons that positive when compare to year X-1. I'm not sure the rookie percentages are anything out of sync with the general regression that players have from very good seasons.

 

[jurb26]

I'd also like to see touches added to the data above. Nice stuff.

 

[cstu]

I think Bernard might be a lifetime committee back, but that doesn't mean BJGE is a threat.

I would not be surprised if the Bengals replaced BJGE in that role with a new face within a year or two. He's very average.

As 21 yo rookies:

Bernard: 695/5 (4.1 YPC), 56/514 (9.2 YPR)

McCoy: 637/4 (4.1 YPC), 40/308 (7.7 YPR)

 

[zamboni]

Ellington-My least favorite sophomore RB. Under another HC, I'd like him more, but Arians doesn't use his RB in the passing game, and that will greatly diminish Ellington's FF value.

Just to add from a few other comments above: several weeks ago Arians said he'd like to get 10 receptions a game for Ellington. Granted, that's a huge pipe dream, but sure sounds like he will be actively using Ellington in the passing game.

 

[Sabertooth]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

 

[jurb26]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

Lacy also missed 2 games last year. I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't put up better numbers given a full 16 games and getting the best player in the NFL back.

 

[False Start]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

 

[False Start]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

This is the stuff that makes my head hurt. Glad the coach doesn't agree with you, but what does the coach know?

Coach Mike McCarthy is planning a balanced offense, "particularly" featuring Eddie Lacy.
The Packers' offense has been far too pass-dependent over the last four seasons, relying exclusively on Aaron Rodgers' arm due to a lack of talent at tailback. That's no longer the case. "You hope they play you two-shell defense all day when Eddie's in the backfield," McCarthy said. A healthy Rodgers is going to open even more lanes for Lacy, who totaled 1,435 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie. He's a no-brainer first-round fantasy pick.

Eddie Lacy's snap count is expected to rise this season.
Lacy played on 60.5 percent of the snaps as a rookie, often ceding third-down duties to John Kuhn. But Kuhn is now a free agent and coach Mike McCarthy has been talking up Lacy as a three-down back. He's a very capable receiver and pass protector. Lacy is an excellent bet for 300-plus carries, 40-plus catches and all the goal-line work in one of the league's premier offenses.

Coach Mike McCarthy said he wants Eddie Lacy to be a three-down back.
Lacy was already an every-down back as the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2013, but this confirms that the Packers aren't really interested in scaling back his workload. Despite being a pounding hammer back, Lacy has soft hands and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Lacy should be locked in as a first-round pick in 2014 fantasy drafts. Getting Aaron Rodgers back will only help

 

[Bayhawks]

Andre Ellington had 39 receptions in 15 games so 2.6 receptions a game and the Cardinals improved their offensive line by signing LT Jared Veldheer and Center Ted Larson. They will also get 1st round rookie guard Cooper back from injury.

They lost Andre Roberts in free agency and added TE John Carlson.

I think with the departure of Roberts there would be more targets for Ellington in a slot WR role. But perhaps a replacement player for Roberts will come through the draft.

Perhaps I should have been more clear. Arians has never had a RB have more than 25 catches AND get 200 total touches in the same season. He can say what he wants, but his history of RB usage says that Arians has a #1RB, then a RB who gets receptions, but that those are two different guys.

Ellington might get 40+ catches, but I highly doubt Arians will get him enough carries to make him a viable FF RB1.

 

[Bayhawks]

Andre Ellington had 39 receptions in 15 games so 2.6 receptions a game and the Cardinals improved their offensive line by signing LT Jared Veldheer and Center Ted Larson. They will also get 1st round rookie guard Cooper back from injury.

They lost Andre Roberts in free agency and added TE John Carlson.

I think with the departure of Roberts there would be more targets for Ellington in a slot WR role. But perhaps a replacement player for Roberts will come through the draft.

i would be stunned if the cardinals do not draft a wr in round two - four

You are likely right. If they don't I am not seeing John Carlson replacing Roberts targets. Fitz being healthy could easily pick up the slack and/or Floyd. I just don't think Ellington is irrelevant as a receiving option because of Arians. I thought the same thing last season and Ellington catches 39 passes.

See my previous post. I agree that Ellington will be a receiving option, but I don't see Arians giving him enough carries to make him more than a Danny Woodhead type FF RB (ie-flex play, injury fill-in, etc)

 

[ShaHBucks]

1) Between 2003 and 2012, 33 rookie running backs have rushed for 600 or more yards. 22 of them have suffered a decline in yardage as sophomores.

2) Between 2003 and 2012, 12 rookie running backs have rushed for 1000 or more yards. Nine of them have suffered a decline in yardage as sophomores. The only three that didn’t were Domanick Williams, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson.

3) Between 2003 and 2012, 18 rookie running backs (with 600+ yards) have rushed for seven or more touchdowns. 13 of them have suffered a decline in touchdowns as sophomores. Jonathan Stewart stayed stagnant. Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai and Domanick Williams scored more as sophomores.

4) Between 2003 and 2012, four rookie running backs (with 600+ yards) averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Vick Ballard and Trent Richardson. All four of those suffered a decline in both yardage and touchdowns as sophomores.

5) Between 2003 and 2012, eight rookie running backs (with 600+ yards) averaged 5.0 yards per carry or more: Steven Jackson, Jerious Norwood, Maurice Jones-Drew, Selvin Young, Adrian Peterson, Chris Ivory, DeMarco Murray and LeGarrette Blount. Six of them suffered a decline in yardage as sophomores. Five of them suffered a decline in touchdowns as sophomores.

Is anyone good enough with football reference to run these parameters with every running back (not just rookies?)

At first glance, these look like big dropoffs, but I wonder if they are in sync with the average running back performance.

For the rookies:

1) 66% negative

2) 75% negative

3) 72% negative/78% negative

4) 100% negative

5) 75% negative/63% negative

Peterson (whole career):

1) 66% negative

2) 80% negative

3) 50% negative/83% negative

4) N/A

5) 50% negative/100% negative

CJ2K (career):

1) 60% negative

2) 60% negative

3) 66% negative

4) 0% negative (1 year under 4.0)

5) 100% negative (1 year over 5.0)

Steven Jackson (career):

1) 55% negative

2) 63% negative

3) 66% negative

4) 100% negative (1 year under 4.0)

5) 0% negative (1 year over 5.0, rookie year)

Barry Sanders (career):

1) 55% negative

2) 55% negative

3) 75% negative (increase over year to year)

4) N/A

5) 60% negative/50% negative (1 year tied in rush-TD total)

I think in general all players will have more negative seasons that positive when compare to year X-1. I'm not sure the rookie percentages are anything out of sync with the general regression that players have from very good seasons.

This is from Johnathan Bales of RotoWire. He actually charted this for every position. This was his summary based of points-per-touch for RBs. Good post.

Running backs enter the league at near peak efficiency, and it’s a steady decline from there. Their peak total production typically occurs around age 26. Quarterbacks take longer to develop, but they can sustain a high level of play well into their 30s. Wide receivers also take a relatively long time to develop, although their play usually drops off by the time they hit their late-20s. Nonetheless, the average wide receiver produces a remarkable 12 seasons with at least 80 percent of their peak production. That number is only six for tight ends—the position with the smallest window of opportunity.

 

[az_prof]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

Thanks for posting video. Here is what I saw:

above average elusiveness and agility

average speed, which for a smaller back, is not good IMO. I saw a linebacker, #54 for Lions, chase him down. He isn't slow; but he is not fast.

Less than average power

Seemed to catch the ball well but it was a highlight reel so I don't think I can judge that from this.

He seems like a good back but doesn't look great to me from this.

 

[Bayhawks]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

Thanks for posting video. Here is what I saw:

above average elusiveness and agility

average speed, which for a smaller back, is not good IMO. I saw a linebacker, #54 for Lions, chase him down. He isn't slow; but he is not fast.

Less than average power

Seemed to catch the ball well but it was a highlight reel so I don't think I can judge that from this.

He seems like a good back but doesn't look great to me from this.

Smaller back???

He's listed as 6'1", 244 lbs, or 6'2" 230 lbs everywhere I look. I wouldn't call that a "smaller back."

He doesn't have to be a great RB, either. With what they are doing in Pittsburgh, and how the Pittsburgh coaches/management feel about him, he's going to get 300+ touches, and he will compile numbers. While he may not look great, FF-wise, he should be solid.

 

[socrates]

I am rather surprised to see Ellington not regarded more highly. Ellington appears poised to have a similar role to that of CIN RB Giovani Bernard, the more productive end of a committee. The Arizona O-line should be vastly improved with the return of Jonathan Cooper and the addition of Jared Veldheer, Mendenhall has retired, and Ellington's primary competition for carries will likely be fellow sophomore runner, Stepfan Taylor (whom I am admittedly high on as well).

Ellington has reportedly bulked up 10 pounds this offseason. Coach Arians has indicated Ellington will have an increased role, stating that they planned to build their offense around the dynamic playmaker. In PPR formats, Ellington could be fantasy gold this season. Moreover, handcuffing Ellington with Taylor should not be costly.

While others are spending high picks on Bernard, I will look for value in Ellington.

 

[Biabreakable]

Andre Ellington had 39 receptions in 15 games so 2.6 receptions a game and the Cardinals improved their offensive line by signing LT Jared Veldheer and Center Ted Larson. They will also get 1st round rookie guard Cooper back from injury.

They lost Andre Roberts in free agency and added TE John Carlson.

I think with the departure of Roberts there would be more targets for Ellington in a slot WR role. But perhaps a replacement player for Roberts will come through the draft.

Perhaps I should have been more clear. Arians has never had a RB have more than 25 catches AND get 200 total touches in the same season. He can say what he wants, but his history of RB usage says that Arians has a #1RB, then a RB who gets receptions, but that those are two different guys.

Ellington might get 40+ catches, but I highly doubt Arians will get him enough carries to make him a viable FF RB1.

I am not seeing Ellington as a RB 1 either but I suppose it is possible. On paper the Cardinals offensive line looks like it will be much improved. Their offensive line has been one of the worst in the league the past couple of seasons, yet Ellington still performed pretty well.

I thought much the same about Arians use of RB prior to last season but I think things are different than what he did with the Steelers. We have a year of him as a head coach now and obviously the Cardinals roster not the same as what he was working with in Pit. It makes sense to look at that when there was no other information to go off of, but now we have a season of data of him with his current team that should take priority over past history, although the history should not just be forgotten.

2 of the things I read about Ellington as a RB prospect that caused me to doubt him cracking their lineup last season were poor pass protection and not having good vision. I did read an interesting article about Ellington that compared him to fast Willie Parker. Here is the article- http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2013/7/19/4537400/the-arizona-cardinals-running-game-alan-faneca-jonathan-cooper-and

Arian's himself was saying that a RBs job is to pass protect and run the ball. So based on his comments, it seemed more likely that Mendenhall and Stephan Taylor would fill those roles because those areas were not strong suits for Ellington. But then why did they draft him? Was he just too good of value to pass up kind of a pick who then impressed the coaches and worked his way up the depth chart?

Snap counts for the Cardinals RB in 2013 out of 1037 plays-

Mendenhall 459 offensive snaps 42%

Ellington 405 offensive snaps 37%

Smith 131 offensive snaps 12%

Taylor 131 offensive snaps 12%

So this does look like an even split (with 2 backups sharing also) between Mendenhall and Ellington, similar to how you describe and that could continue with Smith/Taylor or possibly a rookie RB taking over Mendenhalls role in the offense. If it is the players currently on roster, Ellingtons situation to earn more snaps than he had as a rookie seems likely. I think it would take a pretty good RB to keep him from increasing his snaps to at least 45% and possibly as high as to 60% or more of them if he is playing well. He has more experience now and already has beaten out the other RB on the roster for playing time last season.

 

[RBM]

Are we still posting highlight videos as a way to defend a position on a guy? Thought that shtick was over.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Statistics are fun, but not the whole story.

Heres my gut feeling:

Bernard - moving up

Ellington - moving up in PPR

Stacy - holding steady from last year

Lacy - down

Bell - down

 

[Biabreakable]

2014: Year of the Sophomore Running Back

posted by Rich Hribar Feb 16 2014

http://thefakefootball.com/2014-year-sophomore-running-back/

When looking back on the running back position from a Dynasty perspective, it’s important to get a good grasp on the current landscape of the position as a whole. The bulk of backs currently providing production at the position are on the lower end of the recent age of decline, 22 of the top 30 scorers last season (.5 PPR) were all at age 26 or older last season. Of those remaining eight players, three were 25 exactly (LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris and DeMarco Murray) while the remaining five were all rookies.

We haven’t quite gotten there yet this season, but the upcoming NFL draft isn’t anticipated as providing a great influx of surface talent at the position either. Surely there will be rookie runners who come into workload opportunities and rise into our weekly lineups, but as a whole we are in a massive transition stage at the position. When going back to last season and looking into early trends provided by the fantastic folks at Dynasty League Football, the only clear risers at the position outside of Shane Vereen are all year two running backs.

Player 2013 Startup ADP Early 2014 ADP
Eddie Lacy RB24 RB3
Gio Bernard RB22 RB4
Le’Veon Bell RB26 RB5
Zac Stacy RB36 RB10
Christine Michael RB44 RB19
Andre Ellington RB59 RB22
Montee Ball RB22 RB23
Marcus Lattimore RB43 RB32
Latavius Murray RB58 RB44
Knile Davis RB61 RB39

*ADP last season from Dynasty Football Warehouse and early ADP collected from January from Dynasty League Football

It’s pretty jarring that four guys immediately jump into the top ten based on early 2014 returns and seven year two runners make the top 24 picks at their position. This doesn’t even include players who had basement level ADP last year like Khiry Robinson, Michael Cox and a few others that are on the radar this season to make an impact. This got me to thinking about year two running production from a wider scope and wanted to look more into recent year two running back fantasy output.

2013 was the season of the second year wide receiver. Five sophomore receivers had 1,000 yard seasons, tied for the most ever in a season with 1989. It’s known that receivers are likely to break out now in year two or three, but year two is also a fantastic time to get in and buy on runners. I went back and collected data from both the top 100 rookie and second year seasons from 2000 through 2013 to see what I could find on the matter.

Output Rookie RB Year 2 GAMES/SEASON 14.4 14.6 FANT. PTS/GAME 8.6 10
All this tells us for now is that players in their second year are better fantasy producers, which is no real revelation. We still want to find out if there’s a big jump in production on an individual player level. To scale that down, I went back through those same seasons and filtered for any running back that posted a 100 point season in either their first or second year in the NFL (minus the rookies in 2013 since we don’t have a year to compare yet).

The reason we chose 100 points isn’t because it’s a nice round number, it also correlates to the average finish of RB36 in standard scoring settings over the same time frame. So we’re looking at startable and first level replacement fantasy seasons from a cumulative standpoint.

Over the past 14 seasons, there were 84 different players that qualified for a fantasy relevant season in their first or second season. Of those 84, 38 did it in both seasons. Since both Vick Ballard (year two) and Mikel Leshoure (as a rookie) had a full season on the shelf in either their first or second year, we’re going to remove them for the comparison going forward, leaving us with 82 different players with two seasons worth of production to compare. Everyone else played snaps in both seasons.

55 of the 82 players increased fantasy production in year two, and 38 of those players increased their output by 50 or more points in year two. So while two thirds of the group was improving, nearly 70 percent of that group was making a significant jump. These were the best of the best with the biggest increase in year two since 2000

Player Rookie Year Rookie Pts. Year 2 Pts. Pt. Diff.
Arian Foster 2009 52 327 275
Deuce McAllister 2001 41.2 266 224.8
Shaun Alexander 2000 45.4 258.1 212.7
Ray Rice 2008 71.7 249.1 177.4
Frank Gore 2005 89.9 266 176.1
Marcel Shipp 2001 0 174.7 174.7
Rashard Mendenhall 2008 7.5 181.9 174.4
Stevan Ridley 2011 50.4 199.4 149
Willie Parker 2004 20.2 168 147.8
Chris Johnson 2008 207.8 345.9 138.1
Travis Henry 2001 109.8 247.7 137.9
Larry Johnson 2003 14.7 151.9 137.2

Johnson in 2009 was the highest scoring sophomore season in the NFL since 1970. It was so good that he still makes the list despite scoring over 200 points as a rookie, something only 33 rookies have done over the past 44 seasons. He and Travis Henry were the only two sophomores who built on already above replacement level rookie seasons.

The rest of the group didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, although a few did. Shipp was a special teams player as a rookie, playing in 11 games but didn’t accumulate a single touch on offense. Mendenhall and Johnson were both first round picks who missed 10 games or more games as rookies.

The Sophomore Slump?

51 different rookie seasons qualified, with 28 of those seasons coming as a top 24 scorer for that given year. Of those 51 backs, 38 of those posted a follow up campaign of at least 100 points scored as well. 22 of those 38 increased their fantasy output in their second season, with ten of those backs scoring 50 or more points in the sophomore season. All in all, three fourths of all rookie qualifiers repeated with just under two thirds of all of the rookie producers improved their second year fantasy totals.

Player Rookie Pts Year 2 Pts Year 3 Pts
Knowshon Moreno 166 160.1 33
Laurence Maroney 134.9 133.1 9.3
Kevin Smith 172.2 143.2 25.6
Steve Slaton 222.9 120.4 10.4
LeGarrette Blount 134.1 117.9 27.3
Clinton Portis 284.2 273.5 196.6
Cadillac Williams 158.9 102.4 38.5
Willis McGahee 203.7 171.5 146.6
Reggie Bush 174.7 133.8 117.4
Anthony Thomas 180.1 119.4 141
Maurice Jones-Drew 226.7 169.5 216.9
Matt Forte 242.5 160 214.6
Kevin Jones 165.3 105.3 163.9
DeMarco Murray 119 111 205.1
Trent Richardson 203.7 107.9 n/a
Alfred Morris 241 169.3 n/a

Looking at the 16 backs that declined in production in year two but remained fantasy relevant to an extent, nine continued to decline in year three with only five getting some points back. Forte and Jones-Drew (who didn’t start his first two seasons) bounced back in year three but only DeMarco Murray had more points in year three than in his rookie season after dropping production in year two.

Portis and McGahee were just fine career wise, but never produced a fantasy season as good as their rookie one again. Ironically, both Moreno and Blount resurfaced this year. That’s quite a mixed bag of long-term results but a not very supportive for Morris and Richardson to ever equal their rookie seasons down the line.

Caddyshack II – Epic Fails in the Sequel

Player Rookie Year Rookie Pts Year 2 Pts. Year 3 Pts
Mike Anderson 2000 253.6 97.4 77.3
Jahvid Best 2010 139.2 85.7 DNP
Leon Washington 2006 113 74 127.3
William Green 2002 132 61.9 75.9
Beanie Wells 2009 131.6 58.1 165.9
Doug Martin 2012 262.6 56.2 n/a
Ben Tate 2011 124 42.8 111.1
Selvin Young 2007 100 36.9 DNP
Samkon Gado 2005 103.9 33.5 47.6
Dominic Rhodes 2001 180.8 27.9 31.8
Travis Prentice 2000 116.3 2.3 0
Roy Helu 2011 117.9 0.9 76.5
Mike Bell 2006 130.5 0 DNP

Out of the 13 backs that failed to repeat in their second year, only three got back over 100 points in their third season, and only one (Beanie Wells in 2011) provided a top 24 season, his last useful fantasy campaign. Only Wells and Leon Washington failed to score 100 points in year two and eclipse their total points from year one in their third season. This isn’t a flattering list that doesn’t provide much encouraging news for Doug Martin hopefuls.

Also, it’s pretty noticeable that Mike Shannahan’s fingerprints are everywhere here. I don’t want to just blindly lump Alfred Morris in with all of these other guys that have popped and then declined, but there’s a clear pattern of consistent decline from runners attached to Shanny. Only Portis sustained a strong fantasy career, and like we noted, he never reproduced a season like year one.

Elite Rookie Déjà VuPlayer Year Rookie Pts. RB Finish Year 2 Pts RB Finish

Edgerrin James 1999 307.9 2 335.3 2
Doug Martin 2012 262.6 2 56.2 58
Matt Forte 2008 242.5 3 160 18
Clinton Portis 2002 284.2 4 273.5 5
Adrian Peterson 2007 234.9 4 239.5 5
Mike Anderson 2000 253.6 4 97.4 34
Alfred Morris 2012 241 5 169.3 15
Eddie Lacy 2013 207.5 6 n/a n/a
LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 212.3 7 304.2 3
Steve Slaton 2008 222.9 7 120.4 35
Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 226.7 8 169.5 13
Trent Richardson 2012 203.7 9 107.9 35
Joseph Addai 2006 186.6 10 235.6 3
Willis McGahee 2004 203.7 10 171.5 13
Chris Johnson 2008 207.8 11 345.9 1
Marshawn Lynch 2007 176.2 12 185.6 13
Dominic Rhodes 2001 180.8 12 27.9 79

Since 2000, there have been 17 rookie runners who finished inside the top 12 fantasy scorers during their inaugural campaign. Of those 17, only six duplicated the feat in year two. Of the six that did, only one didn’t come with established elite pedigree as an elite talent coming out of college. Clinton Portis was the only non-first rounder (round two, pick 51 overall) to finish in the top 12 in both of his first two seasons to start his career. Three of the remaining five were considered elite franchise changing prospects. Tomlinson, Peterson and James were all selected within the first seven selections of their respective drafts while Johnson and Addai were later first round picks.

Only two players completely fell off of the fantasy planet, though. In 2001, Rhodes was playing for an injured James, and we all know what playing with Peyton Manning can do for a running back of any talent (as evidence by three players listed above). When James returned to form in 2002, the job was his again. Did we already mention that Montee Ball and C.J. Anderson were both year two backs attached to Manning in 2014?

The other is Martin, who missed 10 games last season. Richardson, Slaton and Anderson ultimately let us down, but they remained on the dance floor at least. This leads to the conclusion that we can anticipate Lacy likely won’t maintain his rookie dominance, but if he’s healthy, he’ll still be plenty of service.

Year two appears to be greatest time to buy in on recent running backs, even ones who did little or nothing for your team as a rookie. If you’re in a startup, guys mentioned above should be on your radar as well as a few others to take in the later rounds. With so many older backs producing coming into 2014, there will surely be opportunities that open due to performance decline and injury.

*Stats and tables taken with data from ProFootballReference.com

 

[Borden]

This grouping is a bit unfair. Lacy, Bell and Stacy have the roles carved out already. Bernard and Ellington had three 15 carry games combined and neither of them had more than 15. So, I think it's a different discussion that includes how they will be used, how they should be used and what OC/scheme they are currently in. The other 3 seem to have that already figured out.

Bell, Lacy and Stacy should all put up better season totals since they all missed games last year. So, we have to look at what their averages would have projected out to if they'd played the full season:

Stacy

12 game production: 249 att, 969 yards, 26 rec, 141 yards Total: 1110 yards

12 game averages: 20.75 att, 80.75 ypg, 2.17 rec, 11.75 ypg Total: 92.5 ypg

16 game projection: 332 att, 1292 yards, 35 rec, 188 yards Total: 1480 yards

Lacy

14 game production: 283 att, 1168 yards, 35 rec, 257 yards Total: 1425 yards

14 game averages: 20.21 att, 83.23 ypg, 2.5 rec, 18.36 ypg Total: 101.59 ypg

16 game projection: 323 att, 1332 yards 40 rec, 294 yards Total: 1626 yards

Bell

13 game production: 244 att, 860 yards 45 rec, 399 yards Total: 1259 yards

13 game averages: 18.77 att, 66.15 ypg 3.46 rec, 30.69 ypg Total: 96.84 ypg

16 game projection: 300 att, 1058 yards 55 rec, 491 yards Total: 1549 yards

Stacy:

Seems to be likely to have a regression if for no other reason then his schedule. He had 4 (of out 12) games where he rushed for over 100 yards. One of which was against Seattle and that's extremely impressive but in the rematch at Seattle in Week 17 he rushed for 15 yards on 15 carries (and 4 catches for 23 yards). I think being the lead/feature back now in St.L this he will be getting respect and attention from the DC's he goes against. Last year as a 5th round rookie he may have caught teams off guard with how good he was. *As maybe he did in the first game against the Seahawks?* Stacy isn't a game breaker but he's a competent starter and the Rams might draft a bulldozer at #2 so there is still a chance for him to put up more yards for this season than last year. However, the Rams just have way to tough of a schedule for "competent starter" to put big numbers and there's little chance he catches any DC's asleep at the wheel this year.

Lacy:

Lacy's is the most likely to have hit his ceiling. If Lacy just stays on pace with what he did last year he will see the ball a ton. I'm not sure if he can improve his touches per game. Especially, when you consider he may be asked to pick up the blocking assignments that Kuhn took care of last year. It's likely that if Rodgers is healthy Lacy sees less carries but more catches and maybe a higher ypc. It doesn't appear that Lacy is going to go through a major regression but a slight regression seems likely just because his high amount touches from last season will be difficult in an offence that isn't based around him.

Bell:

Big Ben was the only other player to score a rushing TD on this team last year. This was a very bad rushing offence last year, tied for 27th in rush yards tied for 25th in rushing TDs. They didn't have a rushing TD until Week 4 when Bell scored. I compared Bell to Blount last offseason so it seems that Pittsburgh is looking to go with a 2-3 combo instead of the 1-2 speed and power combo that most teams like. The Steelers are likely going to use these two in a 60/40 split with Bell getting the heavier load. I wouldn't be surprised to see their rushing attempts for up from 394 to close to 500, "Back to Steelers Football." The idea to be just hammer defences with these two bigger backs. Blount seems to have reignited his career a bit and should be a good teacher for Bell. With the increase in team rushing attempts but the subtraction of Blount's carries, Bell will probably put up slightly better totals than last year but it will be over 16 games rather than 12. The Steelers really need to get the o-line straightened out too.

 

[Bayhawks]

Statistics are fun, but not the whole story.

Heres my gut feeling:

Bernard - moving up

Ellington - moving up in PPR

Stacy - holding steady from last year

Lacy - down

Bell - down

"Statistics are fun, but not the whole story." Then you give us your "gut feeling." The implication being that your "gut feeling" is the whole story? Or the rest of the story?

Do you have any logic/reason for your "gut feeling?" Because if not, isn't that essentially just a guess?

 

[Banger]

what is the current ADP for the 5 guys mentioned (Bell, Lacy, Stacy, Gio and Ellington)? I would have to think from a value POV that I'd like Ellington the best as he'll likely have the lowest ADP by a pretty good margin and I really like his upside for a number of reasons. I'd imagine that Lacy and Bell will be top 10ish picks (with Lacy a few picks higher), with Stacy and Gio not too far behind (probably 12-16ish). I'd think Ellington will likely be RB23ish. These are total guesses though.

 

[Biabreakable]

what is the current ADP for the 5 guys mentioned (Bell, Lacy, Stacy, Gio and Ellington)?

Player 2013 Startup ADP Early 2014 ADP
Eddie Lacy RB24 RB3
Gio Bernard RB22 RB4
Le’Veon Bell RB26 RB5
Zac Stacy RB36 RB10
Christine Michael RB44 RB19
Andre Ellington RB59 RB22
Montee Ball RB22 RB23
Marcus Lattimore RB43 RB32
Knile Davis RB61 RB39
Latavius Murray RB58 RB44

 

[Banger]

what is the current ADP for the 5 guys mentioned (Bell, Lacy, Stacy, Gio and Ellington)?

Player 2013 Startup ADP Early 2014 ADP
Eddie Lacy RB24 RB3
Gio Bernard RB22 RB4
Le’Veon Bell RB26 RB5
Zac Stacy RB36 RB10
Christine Michael RB44 RB19
Andre Ellington RB59 RB22
Montee Ball RB22 RB23
Marcus Lattimore RB43 RB32
Knile Davis RB61 RB39
Latavius Murray RB58 RB44

yikes...I LOVE Ball and Ellington vs. the likes of Lacy, Bell, Bernard, Stacy for 2014 ADP. Ball/Ellington are at/below their floors vs. Lacy/Gio/Bell drafted at/above their ceilings. I'd happily stock up on stud WRs and scoop up Ball/Ellington.

 

[Ditka Butkus]

Statistics are fun, but not the whole story.

Heres my gut feeling:

Bernard - moving up

Ellington - moving up in PPR

Stacy - holding steady from last year

Lacy - down

Bell - down

i'll go with this.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think Bernard might be a lifetime committee back, but that doesn't mean BJGE is a threat.

I would not be surprised if the Bengals replaced BJGE in that role with a new face within a year or two. He's very average.

Gio isn't a bruiser, nor a speedster. He doesn't fit the profile of a workhorse RB taking main goal-line carries. I think the Bengals drafted him to do exactly what he did, take 7-12 carries and 3-5 targets per game. His value is white hot right now. A drop for Gio would be painful for the price. Like you mentioned, Cincy could drop BJGE and go with a cheap option like beloved in-state RB Carlos Hyde in the draft. BJGE isn't sitting idle on the sideline as an alternative either. I don't think he will justify being taking early 2nd if there is big-bodied RBs there capping his upside on the goal-line. Same with Ellington. He had like 1 nice game. His numbers will come from big plays every here and there. He is not a'grinder'; he isn't a big-time goal-line threat. He a nice part of a duo/trio in the NFL. You're being sold the next Spiller, but longterm he's Justin Forsett. I don't see the Cards intentionally going into the season with him as a main-carry RB this season, or any. Power runners like Hyde or Andre Williams would send his value downhill. Ari needs to add a legit "big RB". If they add a big name in the draft, Ellington FF value will spiral.

If you're looking for a stat that does a good job at forecasting a RBs FF value, YPC and other efficiency stat just isn't it EBF. Lets think about it intuitively. This isn't fantasy basketball were we get penalized for every missed jump-shot or free-throw (at least in the leagues I play in for the RB position. I am in a league that score completions/incompletions). Therefore, you have to judge a RB on a per game bases and the tallies are more important than efficiency. I've done Sim Scores and ran regression analysis on them for a few RBs from this class. The stats show you win half the battle using previous years touches and yards per game when predicting next seasons fantasy ppg. It seems that was the most valuable thing you've learned from last season, but it seem you're still fighting it. Lets be honest, we'd all rather hang our hat on our talent evaluation and it does improve your batting average, but its a smaller piece of the puzzle than locking in a starting job in the NFL. You can be a useful-great FF RB running below the avg ypc for the league. YPC varies too much anyway.

The only player between the "Are these rookie RBs overrated" team that had a few touches threatened was L. Bell. I was worried about Blount honestly, but guys here cooled me off. Bell is a more nimble Blount with outstanding receiving abilities. As for the draft, there isn't a handful of 3-down backs that would challenge either of them right now. Jonathan Franklin is arguably as talented as any small-speed back in this class, for example, and is/will be buried behind the bigger Eddie Lacy. Someone like Tre Mason would have the same fate as Franklin, returning kicks and taking a few carries, if he's drafted by Pittsburgh.

It's not rare for a young RB to struggle with avoiding contact. You say "He did not have an outstanding rookie season like Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, MJD, or Chris Johnson" about these "overrated rookie RBs." For a player like Bell, he did perform like Steven Jackson, Ladainian Tomlinson, Trent Richardson, Matt Forte and Lynch did at the age 22-23 just to show how meaningless ypc can be. There is more to a successful run play than a RB. 5+ other players need to do their job as well to even get to the LOS. On top of us disagree on talent evaluation for Stacy and Bell, I don't see their situation changing anytime soon.

 

[ICON211]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

My agenda was stating my opinion. FYI, as other have pointed out, every player looks good on their highlight reel. I am basing my opinion on what I saw for his whole body of work. You disagree and that's fine. You are right though that I probably do not have a future in scouting seeing as I have a job and it is highly unlikely I will ever seek or gain employment as an NFL scout. So you have that going for your post.

 

[False Start]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

Thanks for posting video. Here is what I saw:

above average elusiveness and agility

average speed, which for a smaller back, is not good IMO. I saw a linebacker, #54 for Lions, chase him down. He isn't slow; but he is not fast.

Less than average power

Seemed to catch the ball well but it was a highlight reel so I don't think I can judge that from this.

He seems like a good back but doesn't look great to me from this.

Get a eye exam then, that may help you see the talent. You clearly do not know who he even is if you think he is a smaller back.

 

[bigmurd]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

Thanks for posting video. Here is what I saw:

above average elusiveness and agility

average speed, which for a smaller back, is not good IMO. I saw a linebacker, #54 for Lions, chase him down. He isn't slow; but he is not fast.

Less than average power

Seemed to catch the ball well but it was a highlight reel so I don't think I can judge that from this.

He seems like a good back but doesn't look great to me from this.

Get a eye exam then, that may help you see the talent. You clearly do not know who he even is if you think he is a smaller back

6'1" 244lbs

 

[Gawain]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

Thanks for posting video. Here is what I saw:

above average elusiveness and agility

average speed, which for a smaller back, is not good IMO. I saw a linebacker, #54 for Lions, chase him down. He isn't slow; but he is not fast.

Less than average power

Seemed to catch the ball well but it was a highlight reel so I don't think I can judge that from this.

He seems like a good back but doesn't look great to me from this.

Get a eye exam then, that may help you see the talent. You clearly do not know who he even is if you think he is a smaller back

6'1" 244lbs

Yeah, but he's tiny compared to the Fridge.

 

[False Start]

Bernard - big jump up due new coach and more touches. I think Hue is a great offensive coach and really knows how to get the most out of his players.

Lacy and Ellington - at least will match their rookie numbers with a good chance of improving on them.

Stacy - liked what I saw, but still not completely sold on him. not sure what to expect yet.

Bell - decline in rookie numbers. I view him as a marginal talent and that's pretty much what I saw last year.

Are you all aware of how putrid the line was last year and how full of injuries it was? Marginal talent? He was coming off a foot injury many thought would keep him out half the year and still did well behind one of the worst lines. He caught 45 passes, he could suck all he wants, his contribution to the passing game still has him at supreme RB value. To think a bell cow is going to regress from 860 yards is almost showing you have an agenda with your opinion.

Look at the first carry of this clip how he makes a nice move then watch how well he cuts for a bigger back. Thats elite in itself and not to mention he finds a hole really well, if not for the bad line and foot injury he could of made a strong run at ROY. His pass catching skills are refined to the point that he could be a 60 catch back. He makes a nice catch and run at 1:52. Marginal? I laugh at that comment as I say it after every spin and hurdle he makes in that clip. I guess you dont have a shot at scouting in your future.

I like all of the running backs above for a big year.

Thanks for posting video. Here is what I saw:

above average elusiveness and agility

average speed, which for a smaller back, is not good IMO. I saw a linebacker, #54 for Lions, chase him down. He isn't slow; but he is not fast.

Less than average power

Seemed to catch the ball well but it was a highlight reel so I don't think I can judge that from this.

He seems like a good back but doesn't look great to me from this.

Get a eye exam then, that may help you see the talent. You clearly do not know who he even is if you think he is a smaller back

6'1" 244lbs

Yeah, but he's tiny compared to the Fridge.

If he was ten pounds heavier and 2 inches taller he would be a TE, so lets talk more about how his skills are for a "smaller" back. I had to bring it back up that people talk about what they see in Bells talents and classify them as a smaller back, lmfao, that deserves belaboring seeing as how they do not know what kind of back he is then they clearly have no clue what they are talking about.

Also had to take a second to point out the that Levy, thats his name for people who know football, chased Bell down. This goes back to seeing clearly. Levy had a straight line at full speed to catch Bell while Bell was trying to cut as he made three of them while Levy was chasing him down. I love how you point to that and not where Bell broke Levys ankles on his move at the line to get open. Also about power, looks like at 1:39 he took a few people into the endzone.

 

[titusbramble]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

Lacy also missed 2 games last year. I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't put up better numbers given a full 16 games and getting the best player in the NFL back.

Well it would be a surprise if he didn't, but I'm not sure that I ever want to make that sort of comment, especially at the RB position as a clear #1 feature back. It's not like Lacy was injury free in college either and the concussion issues were an isolated incident in an otherwise clean career. I'd kind of expect similar numbers or perhaps a slight decline from scrimmage, 1350/10 overall say?

As for other 2nd year backs, I want to see what Pitt do with their offensive line before I can be too optimistic on Bell, obv they have people back from injury but I think we have a better idea post-draft. Stacy I like, and I think he'll improve given upgrades in the offensive line both from free agency and the draft, and also that their other RB options are terrible. Bernard I think has an upward rise in numbers, BJGE will likely still get his touches but I'd imagine they tilt things towards Gio somewhat. Ellington I think can't fail to go up, a bump to 15 touches a game doesn't seem an unreasonable increase, couple that with nice line improvements and I like it.

 

[Banger]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

Lacy also missed 2 games last year. I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't put up better numbers given a full 16 games and getting the best player in the NFL back.

Well it would be a surprise if he didn't, but I'm not sure that I ever want to make that sort of comment, especially at the RB position as a clear #1 feature back. It's not like Lacy was injury free in college either and the concussion issues were an isolated incident in an otherwise clean career. I'd kind of expect similar numbers or perhaps a slight decline from scrimmage, 1350/10 overall say?

As for other 2nd year backs, I want to see what Pitt do with their offensive line before I can be too optimistic on Bell, obv they have people back from injury but I think we have a better idea post-draft. Stacy I like, and I think he'll improve given upgrades in the offensive line both from free agency and the draft, and also that their other RB options are terrible. Bernard I think has an upward rise in numbers, BJGE will likely still get his touches but I'd imagine they tilt things towards Gio somewhat. Ellington I think can't fail to go up, a bump to 15 touches a game doesn't seem an unreasonable increase, couple that with nice line improvements and I like it.

ESPECIALLY if he's going 14-20 RBs later than some of the other 2nd year guys. He finished 25th last year with limited touches and Mendy finished 24th...Mendy's out of the picture and there's been a good buzz from Arians about more touches this year. Improved line, good defense, clearly the most talented RB on the team, great receiver out of the backfield...I'm not sure what I'm missing because the stars seem aligned for terrific value with Ellington who could easily finish top 10 if things break as I think they will.

If things don't change a ton between now and the season (which unfortunately they likely will) I think Ellington would be my #1 RB target in all drafts.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

Lacy also missed 2 games last year. I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't put up better numbers given a full 16 games and getting the best player in the NFL back.

Well it would be a surprise if he didn't, but I'm not sure that I ever want to make that sort of comment, especially at the RB position as a clear #1 feature back. It's not like Lacy was injury free in college either and the concussion issues were an isolated incident in an otherwise clean career. I'd kind of expect similar numbers or perhaps a slight decline from scrimmage, 1350/10 overall say?

As for other 2nd year backs, I want to see what Pitt do with their offensive line before I can be too optimistic on Bell, obv they have people back from injury but I think we have a better idea post-draft. Stacy I like, and I think he'll improve given upgrades in the offensive line both from free agency and the draft, and also that their other RB options are terrible. Bernard I think has an upward rise in numbers, BJGE will likely still get his touches but I'd imagine they tilt things towards Gio somewhat. Ellington I think can't fail to go up, a bump to 15 touches a game doesn't seem an unreasonable increase, couple that with nice line improvements and I like it.

ESPECIALLY if he's going 14-20 RBs later than some of the other 2nd year guys. He finished 25th last year with limited touches and Mendy finished 24th...Mendy's out of the picture and there's been a good buzz from Arians about more touches this year. Improved line, good defense, clearly the most talented RB on the team, great receiver out of the backfield...I'm not sure what I'm missing because the stars seem aligned for terrific value with Ellington who could easily finish top 10 if things break as I think they will.If things don't change a ton between now and the season (which unfortunately they likely will) I think Ellington would be my #1 RB target in all drafts.

I think those were early dynasty ADPs listed earlier -- certainly Ball and probably Ellington are going to rocket up redraft boards if / when their teams don't take RBs early. As it stands now, I agree that those two represent great value, but I don't see those ADPs surviving the preseason hype.

 

[jurb26]

There is no way those ADPs hold up. We won't have reliable ADPs for a few months.

 

[Biabreakable]

The ADP numbers posted here are from February.

I tried doing some searches on MFL of drafts since December but I got no results.

Here is their current ADP for keeper leagues results of 23 drafts-

1. McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 25.23 1 125 13
2. McKinnon, Jerick FA RB 35.00 32 38 2
3. Neal, Rajion FA RB 51.40 47 55 5
4. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 59.85 1 222 13
5. Martin, Doug TBB RB 69.77 4 240 13
6. Morris, Alfred WAS RB 77.87 2 269 15
7. Forte, Matt CHI RB 81.62 7 229 13
8. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 81.69 1 227 13
9. Ball, Montee DEN RB 83.33 1 282 15
10. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 84.21 2 244 14
11. Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 87.21 1 248 14
12. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 89.23 8 234 13
13. Bush, Reggie DET RB 93.41 10 273 17
14. Stacy, Zac STL RB 102.46 13 258 13
15. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 103.92 17 238 13
16. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 105.07 1 267 14
17. Vereen, Shane NEP RB 108.53 2 312 17
18. Richardson, Trent IND RB 114.38 6 304 16
19. Ellington, Andre ARI RB 117.21 4 298 14
20. Moreno, Knowshon MIA RB 119.31 15 320 16
21. Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 119.77 25 254 13
22. Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 121.80 10 288 15
23. Bell, Joique DET RB 123.72 14 343 18
24. Tate, Ben CLE RB 127.27 8 317 15
25. Rice, Ray BAL RB 130.67 2 372 15
26. Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 130.81 37 351 16
27. Johnson, Chris NYJ RB 132.13 29 324 15
28. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB 134.07 29 382 14
29. Foster, Arian HOU RB 140.85 24 281 13
30. Miller, Lamar MIA RB 153.60 19 370 15
31. Gore, Frank SFO RB 157.20 10 341 15
32. Jackson, Steven ATL RB 157.33 7 454 18

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2014/adp?COUNT=32&POS=RB&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=1&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

I would throw out the McKinnon and Neal results. Not sure why those show up as 2 and 3 on the list.

 

[sho nuff]

Lacy made most of his hay when Rodgers was hurt. This is Rodgers' team and I don't think we see a big shift away from that now. Especially since the Packers are built to win the Super Bowl and need Lacy in the playoffs. I think he might go backwards in stats.

Im going to disagree somewhat.

I think they have been slowly improving the line as far as run blocking. Getting bigger and away slightly from just a pure zone block team.

TT and McCarthy know the shelf life of RBs...you have to use them while you can. I think they run him into the ground with plenty of Starks to keep him fresh as the season wears on. They will use the run game and abuse it to an extent because what they really need for the playoffs is to make sure Rodgers is healthy all year.

They can replace RBs...but they can't replace the QB.