Seems like an awful lot of RB1 openings this year prior to the Draft. (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

It seems like they may implement a rule outlawing the backwards pass or handoff if you will but until that happens we ought to take a look because even though the draft may not be loaded with studs, there seem to be plenty of room for one of them to explode in the right setting.

New York Jets: You think they aren't looking for a guy or two in this draft to smash the football for Ryan and try to save his butt? He knows they can't throw effectively without a solid running game like what they had when Sanchez was a rookie and into his 2nd season. I look for the Jets to be a team where a rookie RB could make an impact.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Who you betting on right now? I say their RB1 isn't here yet. A number of guys could be grabbed here. They could go for speed and elusiveness or perhaps some power. They certainly cannot be content with what they have right now.

Cincinnati Bengals: Again they need some pop in that running game to help Dalton and AJ continue the attack. I like Cinci to contend for the division this year and I expect them to find some wheels to add to this offense. The problem is the HC seems to never play the young RBs from what I can remember and see. Even when it felt like other had more talent or potential than Cedric Benson and he just kept handing off to the guy. I would like to see someone emerge here, decent OL and a good passing game to boot.

Indianapolis Colts: I like any rookie they might take. IN this offense, Luck now a seasoned veteran so look out. I saw what Ballard did last year, tough runner, not sure I see RB1 written on the guy. Would like to see a RB with good hands get on this team and catch some passes from Luck as well.

Denver: A lot of folks think they might want to upgrade and sure why not, time is not on their side with Manning. I still like what they already have but McGahee is aging and Moreno is pretty up n down, lot more up end of last season, and then you have the Hillman faithful that abound...we'll see, would liek to hear Denver fans chime in on this one.

Oakland: Where are they at with Darren McFadden? Where are you with McFadden? I think they need to bring in someone, perhaps not to be the RB1 but certainly McFadden cannot be relied on for 20+ all 16 games.

Dallas: I say yes

New York Giants: You think they aren't going to be plucking someone in rounds 2-4 somewhere to come in?

Green Bay: They have to, this gets silly as the situation continues to unfold. How many RB1s have they had in the last 2-3 years? Seems like it has been a revolving door of potential with very little pay off. I'm not sure I want any RB no matter who they are on the Packers.

Arizona: I don't believe they will sit tight on Mendenhall. Arians is going to get this offense up and running quick, really intrigued as i believe they will take a RB in that 2-4 round sweet spot that is showing up on draft boards.

St Louis: Who is the RB1 right now? Can you imagine Fisher not having more to choose from? He will go and grab a RB early IMO, he would love a Trent Richardson type if he could even find one. I look for the Rams to grab a RB much to the chagrin of Pead/Richardson owners.

And other teams such as the Miami Dolphins need another RB at some point to co-exist with Lamar Miller, San Diego might want to bring in another back, Chip Kelly might have some different ideas of what he wants in Philly, lot of new coaches with decisions to make. Feels like we might have an overhaul coming at RB...its been a few years since we had the Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, all in the same class IIRC and there were a few others. This draft class is not all that special but some of them could be thrust into very desirable spots.

 

[cobalt_27]

I thought you were done with the NFL. That was quick.

 

[TheFanatic]

The only thing I disagree with is the Giants. Wilson is the guy. And they have a very capable, albeit a little dinged, backup. I don't see them taking anyone before the fourth and only to replace Brown, not Wilson...

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Jets: seem to like Powell, but who knows?

Steelers/GB/Denver: one of these teams will sign Bradshaw as the starter. The other 2 are fair game.

Cincy: BJGE is a stopgap starter for one more year. Not very talented, personally am not a fan. Could see them picking Lacy.

Indy: maybe, but they have other needs. The team seems to also like Ballard, but who knows what they're thinking.

Oak/Dal/NYG: not seeing your view here. Could one of these teams pick a RB high? Sure, of course. McFadden is the starter in OAK, Murray in DAL, D Wilson in NY. End of story.

ARI: we have divergent views on Mendenhall. Why sign him if not to start him?

STL: not sold on Pead as worth getting meaningful snaps. Richardson's development will dictate how early they take a RB

It seems like they may implement a rule outlawing the backwards pass or handoff if you will but until that happens we ought to take a look because even though the draft may not be loaded with studs, there seem to be plenty of room for one of them to explode in the right setting.

New York Jets: You think they aren't looking for a guy or two in this draft to smash the football for Ryan and try to save his butt? He knows they can't throw effectively without a solid running game like what they had when Sanchez was a rookie and into his 2nd season. I look for the Jets to be a team where a rookie RB could make an impact.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Who you betting on right now? I say their RB1 isn't here yet. A number of guys could be grabbed here. They could go for speed and elusiveness or perhaps some power. They certainly cannot be content with what they have right now.

Cincinnati Bengals: Again they need some pop in that running game to help Dalton and AJ continue the attack. I like Cinci to contend for the division this year and I expect them to find some wheels to add to this offense. The problem is the HC seems to never play the young RBs from what I can remember and see. Even when it felt like other had more talent or potential than Cedric Benson and he just kept handing off to the guy. I would like to see someone emerge here, decent OL and a good passing game to boot.

Indianapolis Colts: I like any rookie they might take. IN this offense, Luck now a seasoned veteran so look out. I saw what Ballard did last year, tough runner, not sure I see RB1 written on the guy. Would like to see a RB with good hands get on this team and catch some passes from Luck as well.

Denver: A lot of folks think they might want to upgrade and sure why not, time is not on their side with Manning. I still like what they already have but McGahee is aging and Moreno is pretty up n down, lot more up end of last season, and then you have the Hillman faithful that abound...we'll see, would liek to hear Denver fans chime in on this one.

Oakland: Where are they at with Darren McFadden? Where are you with McFadden? I think they need to bring in someone, perhaps not to be the RB1 but certainly McFadden cannot be relied on for 20+ all 16 games.

Dallas: I say yes

New York Giants: You think they aren't going to be plucking someone in rounds 2-4 somewhere to come in?

Green Bay: They have to, this gets silly as the situation continues to unfold. How many RB1s have they had in the last 2-3 years? Seems like it has been a revolving door of potential with very little pay off. I'm not sure I want any RB no matter who they are on the Packers.

Arizona: I don't believe they will sit tight on Mendenhall. Arians is going to get this offense up and running quick, really intrigued as i believe they will take a RB in that 2-4 round sweet spot that is showing up on draft boards.

St Louis: Who is the RB1 right now? Can you imagine Fisher not having more to choose from? He will go and grab a RB early IMO, he would love a Trent Richardson type if he could even find one. I look for the Rams to grab a RB much to the chagrin of Pead/Richardson owners.

And other teams such as the Miami Dolphins need another RB at some point to co-exist with Lamar Miller, San Diego might want to bring in another back, Chip Kelly might have some different ideas of what he wants in Philly, lot of new coaches with decisions to make. Feels like we might have an overhaul coming at RB...its been a few years since we had the Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, all in the same class IIRC and there were a few others. This draft class is not all that special but some of them could be thrust into very desirable spots.

 

[Gawain]

I wish I could link to it, but there was a great analysis done on 2nd/3rd round RB's and how often they fail to gain significant playing time in their first year. I don't remember the exact stats, but it was pretty darn low.

This draft only has one running back that people think might go in the first round in Lacy. After that it's a fair number of 2nd/3rd round (or later) guys.

There is no Richardson in this draft and there might not be a Martin or Wilson either. It doesn't mind how much opportunity there is if no one coming in has the talent to succeed as a RB1 talent. There will probably be a few surprises (like Morris last year), but just saying that a 3rd round back went to St. Louis isn't a reason to pencil him into Steven Jackson's numbers.

 

[krsone21]

Jets: seem to like Powell, but who knows?

Steelers/GB/Denver: one of these teams will sign Bradshaw as the starter. The other 2 are fair game.

Cincy: BJGE is a stopgap starter for one more year. Not very talented, personally am not a fan. Could see them picking Lacy.

Indy: maybe, but they have other needs. The team seems to also like Ballard, but who knows what they're thinking.

Oak/Dal/NYG: not seeing your view here. Could one of these teams pick a RB high? Sure, of course. McFadden is the starter in OAK, Murray in DAL, D Wilson in NY. End of story.

ARI: we have divergent views on Mendenhall. Why sign him if not to start him?

STL: not sold on Pead as worth getting meaningful snaps. Richardson's development will dictate how early they take a RB

It seems like they may implement a rule outlawing the backwards pass or handoff if you will but until that happens we ought to take a look because even though the draft may not be loaded with studs, there seem to be plenty of room for one of them to explode in the right setting.

New York Jets: You think they aren't looking for a guy or two in this draft to smash the football for Ryan and try to save his butt? He knows they can't throw effectively without a solid running game like what they had when Sanchez was a rookie and into his 2nd season. I look for the Jets to be a team where a rookie RB could make an impact.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Who you betting on right now? I say their RB1 isn't here yet. A number of guys could be grabbed here. They could go for speed and elusiveness or perhaps some power. They certainly cannot be content with what they have right now.

Cincinnati Bengals: Again they need some pop in that running game to help Dalton and AJ continue the attack. I like Cinci to contend for the division this year and I expect them to find some wheels to add to this offense. The problem is the HC seems to never play the young RBs from what I can remember and see. Even when it felt like other had more talent or potential than Cedric Benson and he just kept handing off to the guy. I would like to see someone emerge here, decent OL and a good passing game to boot.

Indianapolis Colts: I like any rookie they might take. IN this offense, Luck now a seasoned veteran so look out. I saw what Ballard did last year, tough runner, not sure I see RB1 written on the guy. Would like to see a RB with good hands get on this team and catch some passes from Luck as well.

Denver: A lot of folks think they might want to upgrade and sure why not, time is not on their side with Manning. I still like what they already have but McGahee is aging and Moreno is pretty up n down, lot more up end of last season, and then you have the Hillman faithful that abound...we'll see, would liek to hear Denver fans chime in on this one.

Oakland: Where are they at with Darren McFadden? Where are you with McFadden? I think they need to bring in someone, perhaps not to be the RB1 but certainly McFadden cannot be relied on for 20+ all 16 games.

Dallas: I say yes

New York Giants: You think they aren't going to be plucking someone in rounds 2-4 somewhere to come in?

Green Bay: They have to, this gets silly as the situation continues to unfold. How many RB1s have they had in the last 2-3 years? Seems like it has been a revolving door of potential with very little pay off. I'm not sure I want any RB no matter who they are on the Packers.

Arizona: I don't believe they will sit tight on Mendenhall. Arians is going to get this offense up and running quick, really intrigued as i believe they will take a RB in that 2-4 round sweet spot that is showing up on draft boards.

St Louis: Who is the RB1 right now? Can you imagine Fisher not having more to choose from? He will go and grab a RB early IMO, he would love a Trent Richardson type if he could even find one. I look for the Rams to grab a RB much to the chagrin of Pead/Richardson owners.

And other teams such as the Miami Dolphins need another RB at some point to co-exist with Lamar Miller, San Diego might want to bring in another back, Chip Kelly might have some different ideas of what he wants in Philly, lot of new coaches with decisions to make. Feels like we might have an overhaul coming at RB...its been a few years since we had the Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, all in the same class IIRC and there were a few others. This draft class is not all that special but some of them could be thrust into very desirable spots.

McFadden is in the last year of his contract so I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted a RB at some point. Probalby wouldn't be until the mid rounds though since the Raiders currently don't have a 2nd round pick, but that could all change with a trade back in the 1st round.

McInjury is always injured I don't see how the Raiders will go into the season with Reece and Stewart as McInjury's only backups. They will either draft a RB or sign a free agent RB at some point.

 

[Xue]

Not sure why you have the Giants listed. They spent a high pick on Wilson and always find guys late or UDFA.

 

[msommer]

I wish I could link to it, but there was a great analysis done on 2nd/3rd round RB's and how often they fail to gain significant playing time in their first year. I don't remember the exact stats, but it was pretty darn low.

This draft only has one running back that people think might go in the first round in Lacy. After that it's a fair number of 2nd/3rd round (or later) guys.

There is no Richardson in this draft and there might not be a Martin or Wilson either. It doesn't mind how much opportunity there is if no one coming in has the talent to succeed as a RB1 talent. There will probably be a few surprises (like Morris last year), but just saying that a 3rd round back went to St. Louis isn't a reason to pencil him into Steven Jackson's numbers.

I think that analysis include data that preclude the new CBA. Also certainly the devaluation the position of RB has gotten in recent years ( not only plug and play, RBBC but also that unless you are perceived an absolute star, getting a big score in FA seems tough). Going forward there will be more RBs picked in the 2nd on the cheap that will get meaningful snaps, simply because of economics demand that other positions are drafted earlier. This wil take a few years to manifest itself so the analysis will still seem correct for some years to come but over time 2nd rounders contributing will be much more prevalent, due to dearth of RBs picked in the 1st

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Oakland (McFadden), Giants (Wilson/Brown), Dallas (Murray) and Arizona (Mendenhall or Williams) are pretty much settled for 2013 IMO.

 

[Crippler]

No #1 RB's in this draft. So no worries for most of these

As a Packer fan, I hope they wait on RB instead of wasting a pick on any of these guys. Lacy injury eliminates him from consideration. I think he ends up in SL in the 2nd round.

Indy wont be drafting RB IMO. This class is nothing special in the end and they got good RB in Ballard

 

[gianmarco]

Oakland (McFadden), Giants (Wilson/Brown), Dallas (Murray) and Arizona (Mendenhall or Williams) are pretty much settled for 2013 IMO.

Arizona is not settled. There is zero chance McFadden, Murray, or Wilson are cut. There is a non - zero chance Mendenhall is with the contract he has and only $500k guaranteed. I agree the spot isn't there now and there's a decent chance he remains the starter, but I certainly wouldn't call it settled. And I certainly wouldn't be surprised by a higher draft pick at RB on that team.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Arizona (Mendenhall or Williams)

I'd be pretty surprised if the Cards took a good enough RB to supplant the pair they have.

Especially since there aren't many good backs in this year's draft.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I doubt Indy takes an rb in the 1st 5 rds, too many o-line and defensive needs

 

[FF Ninja]

Good topic for discussion.

It seems like they may implement a rule outlawing the backwards pass or handoff if you will but until that happens we ought to take a look because even though the draft may not be loaded with studs, there seem to be plenty of room for one of them to explode in the right setting.

New York Jets: You think they aren't looking for a guy or two in this draft to smash the football for Ryan and try to save his butt? He knows they can't throw effectively without a solid running game like what they had when Sanchez was a rookie and into his 2nd season. I look for the Jets to be a team where a rookie RB could make an impact. I really think they are set for 2013 with Powell and Goodson, but they aren't so heavily invested that they couldn't afford to draft someone. Powell still on rookie contract and Goodson was like 2.5-3.5 mil, I think. Still, I'd be surprised if someone other than those two guys has an impact at RB for the Jets this year (barring injury of course).

Pittsburgh Steelers: Who you betting on right now? I say their RB1 isn't here yet. A number of guys could be grabbed here. They could go for speed and elusiveness or perhaps some power. They certainly cannot be content with what they have right now. I'd really like to see what a rededicated Dwyer can do here. We saw a bit of his potential last year with back-to-back 100 yard games (only 17 carries each, IIRC). But the organization is clearly not sold as they were recently kicking the tires on Bradshaw and supposedly still very open to bringing him in, pending another physical in a few weeks. So I agree with this one - we'll likely see an addition here. If not, I'm targeting Dwyer heavily.

Cincinnati Bengals: Again they need some pop in that running game to help Dalton and AJ continue the attack. I like Cinci to contend for the division this year and I expect them to find some wheels to add to this offense. The problem is the HC seems to never play the young RBs from what I can remember and see. Even when it felt like other had more talent or potential than Cedric Benson and he just kept handing off to the guy. I would like to see someone emerge here, decent OL and a good passing game to boot. I was skeptical about BJGE last year. He did exactly how I thought he'd do, but he got way more carries than I thought they'd give a 3.9 ypc guy. Apparently it took them a full season to realize he is just a guy. Weren't they underdogs in the SJax hunt? I can't remember, but I've heard them tied to a free agent or two already this offseason. I agree that this is a team that will mix it up at RB this year, be it FA or rookie.

Indianapolis Colts: I like any rookie they might take. IN this offense, Luck now a seasoned veteran so look out. I saw what Ballard did last year, tough runner, not sure I see RB1 written on the guy. Would like to see a RB with good hands get on this team and catch some passes from Luck as well. I'm with you here. Ballard = JAG. Maybe a bit more than just a guy, but they could definitely upgrade here. I'm not ruling out Donald Brown, but he's on his last year of his rookie contract. They should address the position, even if it is just planning for 2014.

Denver: A lot of folks think they might want to upgrade and sure why not, time is not on their side with Manning. I still like what they already have but McGahee is aging and Moreno is pretty up n down, lot more up end of last season, and then you have the Hillman faithful that abound...we'll see, would liek to hear Denver fans chime in on this one. I'm hoping they'll stand pat, as I think Moreno would be tremendous value in 2013 in a boring, Addai like role. But like you, I don't have a good read on this one. There were early reports that they're going to cut Moreno despite his low price. McGahee costs more, is old, and was not a good pass catcher last year, while Moreno had a very low drop %. They don't have a lot of cap space left to sign a FA and Fox doesn't seem to like rookie RBs, so they could feasibly draft a rookie and still give carries to a veteran. And with the loss of Dumervil they should probably spend the rest of their cap space on defense. This one is a toss up.

Oakland: Where are they at with Darren McFadden? Where are you with McFadden? I think they need to bring in someone, perhaps not to be the RB1 but certainly McFadden cannot be relied on for 20+ all 16 games. With the loss of Goodson, they do need to bring in depth.

Dallas: I say yes It's very unpopular, but I completely agree that they need to bring in someone new. People here are still on the Murray hype train, but the guy is a glorified 3rd down back. His high reception total keep him fantasy relevant, but he's Steve Slaton 2.0. They need a good between the tackles runner.

New York Giants: You think they aren't going to be plucking someone in rounds 2-4 somewhere to come in? If they bring in a rookie, he won't be a factor in 2013.

Green Bay: They have to, this gets silly as the situation continues to unfold. How many RB1s have they had in the last 2-3 years? Seems like it has been a revolving door of potential with very little pay off. I'm not sure I want any RB no matter who they are on the Packers. I agree they have to. I know people love Harris, and he could be a decent back in his own right, but they have to bring in a free agent or rookie. It is just ridiculous how they've ignored this position the last couple years. I'd absolutely love to own the guy they bring in, but the hype surrounding him will undoubtedly get out of control despite half the people claiming they'll ignore the run game because this is supposedly a passing only offense...

Arizona: I don't believe they will sit tight on Mendenhall. Arians is going to get this offense up and running quick, really intrigued as i believe they will take a RB in that 2-4 round sweet spot that is showing up on draft boards. I'm down on Mendenhall, too, but they really need to address the o-line before I get interested. If they do that AND bring in a decent rookie, I might be interested if the price was right, but I'm not expecting them to spend an early pick at RB or for a rookie to have any fantasy worthy impact on this team.

St Louis: Who is the RB1 right now? Can you imagine Fisher not having more to choose from? He will go and grab a RB early IMO, he would love a Trent Richardson type if he could even find one. I look for the Rams to grab a RB much to the chagrin of Pead/Richardson owners. Agree. Fisher likes running backs. I can see him standing pat, though, if there are other players he wants at different positions. He'll likely go BPA due to this team having quite a few holes, but if a RB he likes is available at the right spot, he'll grab him.

And other teams such as the Miami Dolphins need another RB at some point to co-exist with Lamar Miller, San Diego might want to bring in another back, Chip Kelly might have some different ideas of what he wants in Philly, lot of new coaches with decisions to make. Feels like we might have an overhaul coming at RB...its been a few years since we had the Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, all in the same class IIRC and there were a few others. This draft class is not all that special but some of them could be thrust into very desirable spots. I also could see Miami taking one. There is a lot of talk from them about giving the load to a second year 4th round pick that only saw like 50 carries last year, but there is talk like that every offseason about someone. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[EBF]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class. The odds of Arizona finding someone better and using a high enough pick to get that player are very slim.

There might be a lot of opportunities around the league, but this is not a good RB class. I only count a handful of guys who have any real potential, and they won't all end up on teams with immediate opportunity. In terms of best landing spots, I think the Jets, Broncos, Rams, Colts, Packers, Bengals, and Steelers would be wise to add another body. A few of those teams could get by another year with what they have, but IMO none of them have a starting caliber RB on the roster at the moment.

 

[squistion]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class. The odds of Arizona finding someone better and using a high enough pick to get that player are very slim.

There might be a lot of opportunities around the league, but this is not a good RB class. I only count a handful of guys who have any real potential, and they won't all end up on teams with immediate opportunity. In terms of best landing spots, I think the Jets, Broncos, Rams, Colts, Packers, Bengals, and Steelers would be wise to add another body. A few of those teams could get by another year with what they have, but IMO none of them have a starting caliber RB on the roster at the moment.

The EBF Mendenhall love fest continues.

 

[gianmarco]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class. The odds of Arizona finding someone better and using a high enough pick to get that player are very slim.

There might be a lot of opportunities around the league, but this is not a good RB class. I only count a handful of guys who have any real potential, and they won't all end up on teams with immediate opportunity. In terms of best landing spots, I think the Jets, Broncos, Rams, Colts, Packers, Bengals, and Steelers would be wise to add another body. A few of those teams could get by another year with what they have, but IMO none of them have a starting caliber RB on the roster at the moment.

Well, let's see. There's a list of at least 6 teams that could use a starting RB and all 6 of these teams are seemingly going to look to the draft to fill in their vacancy rather than sign Mendenhall. Unless, of course, you think none of those teams could afford to pony up a 1 year, $1 million contract with only $500K guaranteed.

And you're assuming, of course, that Mendenhall is even going to be the starter on his own team. He was rated higher than a lot of RBs that currently have starting NFL jobs (including on his previous team that let him go). That doesn't mean much TODAY.

But ok, no RB in this class is capable of beating the All-World Mendenhall.

 

[menobrown]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class.

I just don't understand how a guys pre-draft rating in 2008 has anything to do with right now in 2013? And this is not a dog show so I don't care about any "pedigree" nonsense. NFL Tape>pre-draft rating.

 

[Tau837]

Oakland (McFadden), Giants (Wilson/Brown), Dallas (Murray) and Arizona (Mendenhall or Williams) are pretty much settled for 2013 IMO.

 

[EBF]

Well, let's see. There's a list of at least 6 teams that could use a starting RB and all 6 of these teams are seemingly going to look to the draft to fill in their vacancy rather than sign Mendenhall. Unless, of course, you think none of those teams could afford to pony up a 1 year, $1 million contract with only $500K guaranteed.

And you're assuming, of course, that Mendenhall is even going to be the starter on his own team. He was rated higher than a lot of RBs that currently have starting NFL jobs (including on his previous team that let him go). That doesn't mean much TODAY.

But ok, no RB in this class is capable of beating the All-World Mendenhall.

Rotoworld says Mendenhall's one year deal is worth $2.5 million with another $1 million in incentives.

To put that into perspective:

Bernard Pierce (84th pick in the 2012 draft) signed a four year deal worth $2.65 million. ($0.66 million per season)

LaMichael James (61st pick in the 2012 draft) signed a four year deal worth $3.32 million. ($0.83 million per season)

Isaiah Pead (50th pick in the 2012 draft) signed a four year deal worth $4.04 million. ($1.01 million per season)

Doug Martin (31st pick in the 2012 draft) signed a four year deal worth $6.78 million. ($1.70 million per season)

You have to go down all the way to Michael Floyd at pick 13 to find a rookie whose average annual salary will be as high as Mendenhall's $2.5 million.

In general, veterans cost a lot more than rookies. Especially if they're in the prime and they have a decent track record of production. You can sign a 3rd-5th round pick for about $500k per season on average. So even if you'd rather have a veteran like Mendenhall or Bradshaw, the fact that you can get a rookie for a fraction of the cost means you might sometimes decide to sacrifice quality in order to save money. And I'm sure that's part of the reason why guys like Bradshaw, Wells, and Felix are sitting on the couch without a job. It's not that they aren't better than a lot of these rookies. It's that they aren't better by a big enough margin to justify the higher cost. Especially since this whole group of players has injury histories. Put those issues aside and they would command even more money.

As far as Mendenhall goes, he'll probably make more money next season than any rookie RB in the league. If you believe that salary generally reflects value, you might want to stop and think on that for a moment. The idea that he'll be cut has little grounding in reality. I can't remember the last time a team signed a high profile RB on the second day of free agency and then cut him before the season started. Barring some kind of catastrophic injury, he'll be their starter or at least in a time share with Ryan Williams.

As I said earlier, it's really unlikely that the Cardinals draft a RB this year who's capable of outplaying him right away. There might not be anyone like that in this draft. If that sounds absurd, remember where he went in the draft and how highly he was rated when he was at this stage of his career. Guys like Johnathan Franklin, Gio Bernard, and Le'Veon Bell aren't any better than him. They are good talents relative to their draft class, but they are below average compared to the typical NFL starter. Mendenhall is just an average starter in his own right, but even that level is much higher than most of the backs in this draft will ever reach. We spend so much time thinking in terms of how prospects rate within their draft class that we sometimes lose sight of the fact that once they get to the NFL, they'll be competing against the best talents from the past 10+ years. The question isn't whether or not someone like Franklin is good compared to Andre Ellington, Ray Graham, and Zac Stacy. The question is whether he's good compared to DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, CJ Spiller, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin, Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, and Arian Foster.

Mendenhall has already shown that he can win a job and keep it for several seasons. Most of the backs in this draft will never be NFL starters, much less for multiple seasons. I posted this in another thread:

Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:Steven JacksonWillis McGaheeFrank GoreAdrian PetersonMichael TurnerCedric BensonMaurice Jones-DrewChris JohnsonMarshawn LynchMatt ForteRay RiceRonnie BrownBrandon JacobsArian FosterRashard MendenhallLeSean McCoy

Bad players occasionally win starting jobs in the NFL, but they don't keep them. A guy like Lacy, Bernard, Michael, or Franklin will be lucky to have Mendenhall's career. And if you pit one of those players against a 25 year old Mendenhall in a battle for playing time, he will be a huge favorite.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Oakland (McFadden), Giants (Wilson/Brown), Dallas (Murray) and Arizona (Mendenhall or Williams) are pretty much settled for 2013 IMO.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Rotoworld says Mendenhall's one year deal is worth $2.5 million with another $1 million in incentives.

To put that into perspective:

To put that into perspective: It's about what Peyton Hillis got from the Chiefs last year.

 

[cstu]

Rotoworld says Mendenhall's one year deal is worth $2.5 million with another $1 million in incentives.

To put that into perspective:

To put that into perspective: It's about what Peyton Hillis got from the Chiefs last year.

$2.6M of Hillis' deal was guaranteed vs. $500k for Mendenhall. He could earn more than Hillis but they aren't showing a lot of faith with the guaranteed money.

 

[EBF]

Rotoworld says Mendenhall's one year deal is worth $2.5 million with another $1 million in incentives.

To put that into perspective:

To put that into perspective: It's about what Peyton Hillis got from the Chiefs last year.

If you want to find reasons to be down on Mendy, there are plenty. He's had two serious injuries in five seasons. He hasn't proven that he's fully recovered from the torn ACL. He was suspended last year for conduct detrimental to the team. It's plain to see why he didn't command a mega pay day. He'll still make more money next year than any rookie RB.

If you think there are numerous rookies in this draft capable of unseating him, I'd argue that it's pretty naive. Newer doesn't always = better. We saw that last year in Denver with Hillman and Moreno. Boring veterans like Greene, Benson, Green-Ellis, and McGahee don't excite FF players for obvious reasons, but there is a reason why they continue to hang around the league long after many of their fellow rookie RBs have washed out. Merely becoming a slightly below average NFL starter is a big ask of any rookie. Today's Franklin, Bell, Ball, and Bernard are tomorrow's Morency, Shelton, Arrington, T Bell, Vereen, Pead, LeShoure, Hardesty, Irons, Leonard, and Booker. You have to be REALLY good to stick around the NFL, and there simply aren't very many really good RBs in the typical draft class. Especially this year, when we might not see a single RB picked in the first round.

Doesn't mean there can't be a gem or two in this crop or that we can't get an A-Train, Slaton, or Ballard if one of these average players falls into a starting job. Just realize that the long term hit rate on middle round backs is not very good. No reason to think this year's group will be any different.

 

[gianmarco]

Rotoworld says Mendenhall's one year deal is worth $2.5 million with another $1 million in incentives.

To put that into perspective:

To put that into perspective: It's about what Peyton Hillis got from the Chiefs last year.

$2.6M of Hillis' deal was guaranteed vs. $500k for Mendenhall. He could earn more than Hillis but they aren't showing a lot of faith with the guaranteed money.

Correct. $1 million of that contract is in incentives. So it's only a $1.5 million salary (potential of $2.5 million).

And Hillis got that as a backup to Jamaal Charles and was used as such.

No idea why the attempt to compare Mendy's contract to rookie contracts. We've seen plenty of vet signings across the league over years and Mendenhall's contract is one of the lowest I've ever seen. It in no way guarantees him the starting spot right now with Williams on the team, let alone with any rookies that might come into the mix.

 

[gianmarco]

Rotoworld says Mendenhall's one year deal is worth $2.5 million with another $1 million in incentives.

To put that into perspective:

To put that into perspective: It's about what Peyton Hillis got from the Chiefs last year.

If you want to find reasons to be down on Mendy, there are plenty. He's had two serious injuries in five seasons. He hasn't proven that he's fully recovered from the torn ACL. He was suspended last year for conduct detrimental to the team. It's plain to see why he didn't command a mega pay day. He'll still make more money next year than any rookie RB.

If you think there are numerous rookies in this draft capable of unseating him, I'd argue that it's pretty naive. Newer doesn't always = better. We saw that last year in Denver with Hillman and Moreno. Boring veterans like Greene, Benson, Green-Ellis, and McGahee don't excite FF players for obvious reasons, but there is a reason why they continue to hang around the league long after many of their fellow rookie RBs have washed out. Merely becoming a slightly below average NFL starter is a big ask of any rookie. Today's Franklin, Bell, Ball, and Bernard are tomorrow's Morency, Shelton, Arrington, T Bell, Vereen, Pead, LeShoure, Hardesty, Irons, Leonard, and Booker. You have to be REALLY good to stick around the NFL, and there simply aren't very many really good RBs in the typical draft class. Especially this year, when we might not see a single RB picked in the first round.

Doesn't mean there can't be a gem or two in this crop or that we can't get an A-Train, Slaton, or Ballard if one of these average players falls into a starting job. Just realize that the long term hit rate on middle round backs is not very good. No reason to think this year's group will be any different.

You're overall point here is a good one. I've pointed it out myself that even being drafted in the 2nd round is no guarantee that a RB will be the starter.

However, the point of the thread is that there are lots of potential RB1 openings. Arizona absolutely fits that criteria in the sense that Arizona signing Mendenhall at the pittance they did does NOT indicate that the starting job is locked up and there's no need to apply further. It's not in the same situation as a team like NY or Pitt or St. Louis, but it's certainly not in the same breath as Dallas or Oakland or NYG. There is ZERO chance that Murray or McFadden or Wilson get released and aren't starters come day 1 (Wilson can be slightly argued, but let's leave that for another discussion). That is not the case in Arizona as I'm not even sure Mendenhall is the starter over Williams.

So no, I wouldn't say that there are lot of RBs in the draft that can unseat him based on what we know right now. But, I also wouldn't view landing in Arizona as a bad landing spot if you believe in a specific RBs talent because that job is most definitely available in the near future and potentially as early as week 1 in 2013.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Actually $2 million base, with a $500k signing bonus (the only part that's guaranteed, IIRC) and another million available in incentives ($3.5m total). If the incentives are based on workouts or games played or etc (as opposed to something like 'making the all-pro team') it's not a horrible deal -- it just doesn't have much guaranteed money.

I think the structure and lack of guaranteed money is probably due to the injury and problem-child concerns, but YMMV.

ETA: this isn't a six year deal where everyone knows the guaranteed money is the only thing to look at. This is a one-year deal, so he's getting the money ($2.5m - $3.5m) unless something weird happens.

Correct. $1 million of that contract is in incentives. So it's only a $1.5 million salary (potential of $2.5 million).

 

[gianmarco]

Actually $2 million base, with a $500k signing bonus (the only part that's guaranteed, IIRC) and another million available in incentives ($3.5m total). If the incentives are based on workouts or games played or etc (as opposed to something like 'making the all-pro team') it's not a horrible deal -- it just doesn't have much guaranteed money.

I think the structure and lack of guaranteed money is probably due to the injury and problem-child concerns, but YMMV.

ETA: this isn't a six year deal where everyone knows the guaranteed money is the only thing to look at. This is a one-year deal, so he's getting the money ($2.5m - $3.5m) unless something weird happens.

Correct. $1 million of that contract is in incentives. So it's only a $1.5 million salary (potential of $2.5 million).

I apologize, you are correct. I must have misread it when I first looked at the contract details and thought it was a total of $2.5 with $1M in incentives. It's a little more reassuring.

I've said it elsewhere and will say it again here that I'm NOT saying that Mendenhall can't ressurect his career or that there's no chance he succeeds. If I were to gamble on who's the starter in 2013, I'd easily say him. But I am saying that the job is not guaranteed at all, even for this year, given the circumstances and I'd most certainly include Arizona on a list of teams with a potential opening at starting RB. Same way one can argue that Dwyer, Ballard, Powell, BJGE, Pead, etc. are all the current starters and there aren't any openings for those teams either, this is much more similar situation than it is to the teams like Dallas, Oakland, and NY right now that Arizona is being lumped in by some of you.

Put another way:

If I was a huge Lacy fan and he got drafted by Oakland or Dallas in the 2nd round, I'd be quite disappointed in the landing spot.

If I was a huge Lacy fan and he got drafted by St. Louis or Pitt in the 2nd round, I'd be quite happy with the landing spot.

If I was a huge Lacy fan and he got drafted by Arizona in the 2nd round, I'd be quite content with that and would feel much more like the StL/Pitt scenario than I would if he landed in Dallas or Oakland.

And I certainly wouldn't write him off for 2013 because of the current scenario if he did land in Arizona. Feel free to plug in any RB if you're a fan of them (i.e. Gio, Ball, Michael, etc.) and they end up in Arizona.

 

[beef]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class.

Mendenhall's rating as a prospect is irrelevant now.

 

[nightmare]

Can someone please explain to me how Oakland and Dallas stand pat with the RB's they have?

I'm talking about taking one of the top 2-6 Rb's in the draft or a Wells/F Jones FA addition. I think

A Bradshaw goes to Pitt once he's shown how healthy he is. One of these teams is going to get a

top ranked RB in the third round. I like D Murray and McFadden but they need help to share the load.

 

[EBF]

Arizona wouldn't be a horrible long term landing spot for a rookie RB. Even if Mendenhall shows well there, the fact that he's on a one year deal means they have no long term security. I actually expect the Cardinals to add somebody. I just don't think it will be somebody that's good enough to push Mendy aside in year one. Lacy might be good enough to do that and Bernard would be a vulture because of his receiving skills, but nobody beyond those two would dampen his redraft outlook much IMO. And what are the odds that either of those two ends up there? 5-10%? Not very high. My guess is that they'll get a day three project who offers some combination of depth and upside. If the Mendenhall experiment doesn't work out, they'll go back to the well next year.

If we're talking long term, I think Oakland is actually a great landing spot for a rookie RB. There are parallels between McFadden and Mendenhall. High picks who have had their moments, but struggled with consistency and durability. The difference is that I think Mendenhall is a bit undervalued by the general FF public and McFadden overvalued. He ranked 41 out of 42 RBs in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. Had the worst YPC average of any RB with 200+ carries. Unlike Mendenhall, he doesn't have the excuse of recovering from a torn ACL. Even if you like his talent, he has never played more than 13 games in a season or carried the ball more than 223 times. It is almost a foregone conclusion that he won't be able to handle a full workload and will miss time. His contract expires after this season, which means any rookie drafted by the Raiders would also have a very real chance of starting by 2014.

The issue is that there are more teams with RB needs than there are good RBs in the draft. Some of these teams like the Jets, Broncos, Colts, Rams, or Packers are going to end up with a sub par backfield. Any rookie RB with a pulse would have a chance to beat out Harris/Ballard/Powell though.

 

[nightmare]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class.

Mendenhall's rating as a prospect is irrelevant now.

I disagree. EBF is getting bashed here but Mendenhall is/was one of the few full time RB's. What is irrelevant is comparing rookie contracts to FA ones.

 

[beef]

Bradshaw is done. People need to get over him and sell while there is still hope.

 

[nightmare]

P Hillis's contract was a great example of a BAD signing. How we keep using it to compare other ones

is beyond me. We do not know if Bradshaw is done-He managed to finish as RB 16 in the FBG's rankings.

I wouldn't give up on a RB2 so fast.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Bradshaw is done. People need to get over him and sell while there is still hope.

Yeah, as a Dwyer owner I would love to see them sign Bradshaw. There is no way he can carry a full load anymore. He might not even make it through a season. Big fan of the guy - I drafted him in late rounds as a rookie - but his body just cannot hold up to the pounding.

 

[menobrown]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class.

Mendenhall's rating as a prospect is irrelevant now.

I disagree. EBF is getting bashed here but Mendenhall is/was one of the few full time RB's. What is irrelevant is comparing rookie contracts to FA ones.

No one is bashing EBF here. I have no problem with EBF hanging his hat on the run of production Mendenhall had before his injury. If you think he can return to pre-ACL form what he displayed on tape in real NFL games is who he is and that's very relevant when discussing him. Pre-draft ratings are opinions on what a player might be when he reaches the NFL. It's nonsense to hang your hat on that when a player has just completed 5 years in the NFL. As I said before: 5 years of NFL game tape>5 year old pre-draft opinions and it's not even remotely close.

 

[nightmare]

2008 Mendenhall was a rookie with J Stewart, D McFadden, F Jones, R Rice, M Forte, J Charles, and C Johnson. 2008 rookie ratings and 2013 rookie ratings is an apples to apples comparison. Mendenhall, Stewart, and McFadden were rated 1st round talents. A scouts process on grading players is consistent from year to year. No one is disagreeing on the game tape versus draft rankings.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What back in this draft is going to beat out Mendenhall? He was rated higher than anyone in this class. The odds of Arizona finding someone better and using a high enough pick to get that player are very slim.

There might be a lot of opportunities around the league, but this is not a good RB class. I only count a handful of guys who have any real potential, and they won't all end up on teams with immediate opportunity. In terms of best landing spots, I think the Jets, Broncos, Rams, Colts, Packers, Bengals, and Steelers would be wise to add another body. A few of those teams could get by another year with what they have, but IMO none of them have a starting caliber RB on the roster at the moment.

Well, let's see. There's a list of at least 6 teams that could use a starting RB and all 6 of these teams are seemingly going to look to the draft to fill in their vacancy rather than sign Mendenhall. Unless, of course, you think none of those teams could afford to pony up a 1 year, $1 million contract with only $500K guaranteed.

And you're assuming, of course, that Mendenhall is even going to be the starter on his own team. He was rated higher than a lot of RBs that currently have starting NFL jobs (including on his previous team that let him go). That doesn't mean much TODAY.

But ok, no RB in this class is capable of beating the All-World Mendenhall.

And all I am saying is there are several roster spots to go around. Some of these starting RBs will get hurt and although (fill in the blank) was not hyped in the 4th/5th round this year, suddenly they are thrust into a more prominent role. That's how these sleepers and "where did that guy come from" sometimes start. I don't necessarily think a rookie is going to shove Mendenhall to the side but a hamstring pull in week 4 and suddenly (enter rookie)...

 

[Tackling Dummies]

I thought you were done with the NFL. That was quick.

Well played sir. I was also assuming that the tantrum was legit because it was ***Official***.

 

[Young 8]

Jets: seem to like Powell, but who knows?

Powell is a scrub, I would be shocked if Goodson is not the starter on opening day

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Two teams to throw out there:

San Diego - new regime has no ties to Mathews and he will need to have quite a year to endear himself to them. If they see a back they like long-term in this draft, they may not wait around to see what Mathews does before investing in a RB of the future that they pick.

Tennessee - Chris Johnson won't be worth 8M next year if he performs the way he did last year. Tennessee has to be making other plans at RB soon.

Wouldn't be surprised to see either one of these teams take one of the first 5/6 backs off of the board.

 

[FF Ninja]

blah blah blah

We get it. You want to have Mendenhall's baby. But seriously, not every thread has to be about him. This could be a good topic for discussion. Let it be.

 

[FF Ninja]

Two teams to throw out there:

San Diego - new regime has no ties to Mathews and he will need to have quite a year to endear himself to them. If they see a back they like long-term in this draft, they may not wait around to see what Mathews does before investing in a RB of the future that they pick.

Tennessee - Chris Johnson won't be worth 8M next year if he performs the way he did last year. Tennessee has to be making other plans at RB soon.

Wouldn't be surprised to see either one of these teams take one of the first 5/6 backs off of the board.

San Diego's got 99 problems, but Mathews ain't one.

Sure, the new staff isn't hitched to him, but he's clearly got talent and they've got a ton of holes to fill in other areas. It could happen, but it would be a shocker. Kind of like when Denver took Moreno. It would be nice to see Mathews in a new situation next year, though.

 

[nightmare]

Isn't Tennessee paying S Greene 3 million(average) a year? New RBBC? You figure San Diego will draft a RB but how high? They blew a lot of money on R Meachem, E Royal, and L McLain so the FA market is out.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think the Bengals will take a RB in the first 3 rounds. It is almost 100% in fact.

But I wouldn't expect him to come in and be a big fantasy factor right away as they seem pretty set on going with a committee approach.

They wanted to sign Reggie Bush and it wasn't the money that was the deciding factor, but the fact that he didn't want to be a committee guy which is what the Bengals told him explicitly they were looking at him for.

If they were to take a guy like Gio Bernard in the 2nd, I think people might over value him in fantasy. Gruden seems to want more of a New Orleans type backfield. Likely with BJGE, Cedric Peerman and 2 draft picks.

 

[nightmare]

This message board is going to go nuts after the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft are done.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

Oakland (McFadden), Giants (Wilson/Brown), Dallas (Murray) and Arizona (Mendenhall or Williams) are pretty much settled for 2013 IMO.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

This message board is going to go nuts after the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft are done.

yep, RB draft picks line up just as much with internal evaluations of the prospects than projected need in the next 1-2 year window

 

[msommer]

Tennessee - Chris Johnson won't be worth 8M next year if he performs the way he did last year. Tennessee has to be making other plans at RB soon.

Wouldn't be surprised to see either one of these teams take one of the first 5/6 backs off of the board.

TEN signed Shonn Greene to a back up contract as noted above and if anything that should be a vote of confidence in CJ, but agree he needs to show consistency to continue to get paid, to make more positive plays and to get something out of his speed.

Sure they could take a back, but which type they choose (if they use a high pick) says more about who is on the bubble over time - and it may still be the ex Jet

 

[cstu]

Tennessee - Chris Johnson won't be worth 8M next year if he performs the way he did last year. Tennessee has to be making other plans at RB soon.

Wouldn't be surprised to see either one of these teams take one of the first 5/6 backs off of the board.

TEN signed Shonn Greene to a back up contract as noted above and if anything that should be a vote of confidence in CJ, but agree he needs to show consistency to continue to get paid, to make more positive plays and to get something out of his speed.

Sure they could take a back, but which type they choose (if they use a high pick) says more about who is on the bubble over time - and it may still be the ex Jet

I think it's more the $17M they'd have in dead money if they cut him this year.