Sell high/Buy low receivers at the midpoint of the season (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

My observation is that white hot receivers through the first half usually cool off in the 2nd.  Maybe get bracketed, doubled, or maybe they've been healthy the whole way and start to get dinged.  Example - no way Cupp IMO keeps this pace. He's still a stud and will be very good, but he's not going for 1800 and 20.  Not going to happen.  Same with Mike Evans.  Has 8 TDs.  Could keep going but feel he's likely to get 4-5 the rest of the way.  Doubt he gets 16.  The exception in past years might have been Davante Adams but that's it.  This year he only has 3.  He's more likely to get 8 in the 2nd half than the other guys but most owners are betting on that and he's not gettable in trades anyway.

Who's your sell high and buy low just based on historical averages?

 

[kface]

I like cupp this year.  Only because stafford looks for him all the time on the short stuff too.  Maybe doesn't end up with 20 tds but he will get his targets

I think jefferson is a buy low right now.

I think that lockett is a good buy low as well

 

[zamboni]

I think Jeudy is a buy low. The QB play is a wildcard and it's still a crowded WR corps, but I think talent wins out in the end.

A few other dicier ones:

Aiuyk - has he overcome the early season doldrums?

Edwards based on the Ruggs issue?

 

[kface]

I think Jeudy is a buy low. The QB play is a wildcard and it's still a crowded WR corps, but I think talent wins out in the end.

A few other dicier ones:

Aiuyk - has he overcome the early season doldrums?

Edwards based on the Ruggs issue?

My mind went to edwards this morning as well but it's not like Ruggs was getting a ton.  Even if 100% of ruggs went to edwards, he would still barely be a wr3

 

[Ministry of Pain]

My observation is that white hot receivers through the first half usually cool off in the 2nd.  Maybe get bracketed, doubled, or maybe they've been healthy the whole way and start to get dinged.  Example - no way Cupp IMO keeps this pace. He's still a stud and will be very good, but he's not going for 1800 and 20.  Not going to happen.  Same with Mike Evans.  Has 8 TDs.  Could keep going but feel he's likely to get 4-5 the rest of the way.  Doubt he gets 16.  The exception in past years might have been Davante Adams but that's it.  This year he only has 3.  He's more likely to get 8 in the 2nd half than the other guys but most owners are betting on that and he's not gettable in trades anyway.

Who's your sell high and buy low just based on historical averages?

Kupp has been held back for years by Goff, just accept it. He was always on the edge of greatness even with Goff. Stafford has allowed him to showcase his skills in a way many of his supporters thought they saw but between injuries and poor QB play he was languishing quite a bit and now he is proving that he has the skills to be one of the very best in the NFL, also at 28 he's in his prime right now. Likely a career year I will give you that but he's going to shatter his high marks at receptions, yds and TDs. 

 

[zamboni]

My mind went to edwards this morning as well but it's not like Ruggs was getting a ton.  Even if 100% of ruggs went to edwards, he would still barely be a wr3

True unless the offensive scheme changes a bit more and rolls more targets to Edwards, who can get down the field and is a big target.

 

[Judge Smails]

Kupp has been held back for years by Goff, just accept it. He was always on the edge of greatness even with Goff. Stafford has allowed him to showcase his skills in a way many of his supporters thought they saw but between injuries and poor QB play he was languishing quite a bit and now he is proving that he has the skills to be one of the very best in the NFL, also at 28 he's in his prime right now. Likely a career year I will give you that but he's going to shatter his high marks at receptions, yds and TDs. 

Yeah - his owners aren't trading him so it's probably moot from a transaction perspective.  I'll just monitor.  My bet is he cools off by 30-40% of his first half production in the 2nd half

 

[travdogg]

My observation is that white hot receivers through the first half usually cool off in the 2nd.  Maybe get bracketed, doubled, or maybe they've been healthy the whole way and start to get dinged.  Example - no way Cupp IMO keeps this pace. He's still a stud and will be very good, but he's not going for 1800 and 20.  Not going to happen.  Same with Mike Evans.  Has 8 TDs.  Could keep going but feel he's likely to get 4-5 the rest of the way.  Doubt he gets 16.  The exception in past years might have been Davante Adams but that's it.  This year he only has 3.  He's more likely to get 8 in the 2nd half than the other guys but most owners are betting on that and he's not gettable in trades anyway.

Who's your sell high and buy low just based on historical averages?

I actually think there is a good chance Evans keeps this pace up. What can you do to stop him, double him? That's practically handing a TD to Brown, or Godwin, or Gronk. Evans gets 2-3 throws into the endzone every week, he should actually probably have more TDs than he does right now, but he's just missed by fingertips(probably the case for a lot of guys, but very noticeable with Evans because of his size) now Evans will probably not be great in the yardage department. But I think 80-1100-17 is very possible for Evans. 

 

[TheWinz]

True unless the offensive scheme changes a bit more and rolls more targets to Edwards, who can get down the field and is a big target.

Waller?

 

[Tanner9919]

sell high on Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams..I've seen enough of these offenses to know that JJ is not going to be the 2020 JJ , and Williams had a cup of coffee as the leagues best WR but that's a dog's age ago. 

buy low on Hunter renfrow

for RBs:

buy low on Khalil Herbert. buy high on Michael Carter. sell high on J. Williams. 

 

[Tau837]

Same with Mike Evans.  Has 8 TDs.  Could keep going but feel he's likely to get 4-5 the rest of the way.  Doubt he gets 16.

I expect Brady to break the single season TD record and have 55+ TDs, assuming he remains healthy. If so, I absolutely think Evans could get 16 of them. He only needs 8 in 9 games to do it, which seems very doable.

Your post is about what happens with typical hot WRs, but most of those historically do not play in 55+ passing TD offenses.

 

[sho nuff]

sell high on Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams..I've seen enough of these offenses to know that JJ is not going to be the 2020 JJ , and Williams had a cup of coffee as the leagues best WR but that's a dog's age ago. 

buy low on Hunter renfrow

for RBs:

buy low on Khalil Herbert. buy high on Michael Carter. sell high on J. Williams. 

Not sure there is enough value yet to sell high on Williams (if you mean Javonte).  And that schedule coming up is juicy in a few weeks.  Id sell him if I could...but not going to get any offers to sell him high.

 

[zamboni]

True unless the offensive scheme changes a bit more and rolls more targets to Edwards, who can get down the field and is a big target.

Waller?

Waller is a given. Carr seems to be spreading it out a bit more this year and Waller isn't 100% healthy. Have to imagine Edwards will assume some of the downfield work of Ruggs, but the question is how many more targets he'll get.

 

[Judge Smails]

I actually think there is a good chance Evans keeps this pace up. What can you do to stop him, double him? That's practically handing a TD to Brown, or Godwin, or Gronk. Evans gets 2-3 throws into the endzone every week, he should actually probably have more TDs than he does right now, but he's just missed by fingertips(probably the case for a lot of guys, but very noticeable with Evans because of his size) now Evans will probably not be great in the yardage department. But I think 80-1100-17 is very possible for Evans. 

17. Wow. I’d take that 

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Trying to figure out if Lockett is currently a sell high (based on last week/Wilson coming back) or a buy low (owner afraid last week was a boom game and he'll continue to bust).

 

[Chaka]

Waller is a given. Carr seems to be spreading it out a bit more this year and Waller isn't 100% healthy. Have to imagine Edwards will assume some of the downfield work of Ruggs, but the question is how many more targets he'll get.

We're only talking about 5 targets/game. It is just as likely those get lost entirely by the offense being less efficient without Ruggs keeping the safeties deep all day.

They could also give one more to Waller, Drake, Edwards & Zay Jones and run the ball one more time.

It's just not much of a pie to redistribute.

Ruggs magic football value was his ability to salvage a bad game in an instant. Edwards has actually been pretty good on the deep balls but I don't think he has Ruggs's efficiency in that department.

 

[zamboni]

We're only talking about 5 targets/game. It is just as likely those get lost entirely by the offense being less efficient without Ruggs keeping the safeties deep all day.

They could also give one more to Waller, Drake, Edwards & Zay Jones and run the ball one more time.

It's just not much of a pie to redistribute.

Ruggs magic football value was his ability to salvage a bad game in an instant. Edwards has actually been pretty good on the deep balls but I don't think he has Ruggs's efficiency in that department.

You're probably right. If there were a less crowded receiving corps, then perhaps there would be more upside for Edwards. Even if he assumes most of Ruggs work, I doubt the passing game would shift much from Waller, Renfrow and Drake as it stands now.

 

[TampaMike19]

sell high on Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams..I've seen enough of these offenses to know that JJ is not going to be the 2020 JJ , and Williams had a cup of coffee as the leagues best WR but that's a dog's age ago. 

buy low on Hunter renfrow

for RBs:

buy low on Khalil Herbert. buy high on Michael Carter. sell high on J. Williams. 

Michael Carter and j. Williams should be flip flopped here, although I'm not selling either in a keeper 

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Odell Beckham deserves speculative consideration in this thread IMO in case he gets released and lands in a good spot.  

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I agree with this take in a big way:

Ian Hartitz

⁦‪@Ihartitz⁩

Tee Higgins is averaging more expected PPR points per game than Ja'Marr Chase this season (PFF).

Higgins is *the* buy-low receiver to go get in fantasy football land.

11/3/21, 11:37 AM

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Brandin Cooks is quietly having another solid year, especially in PPR. And Tyrod will soon be back...