Musesboy
Footballguy
My shopping list is rather long for this week. It will get shorter as the season progresses. I feel that it is important to go after the studs until they have their first big game of the year. While we all know that Shaun Alexander is a great performer, some will have a few doubts forming after the opening week. If he tears it up and scores twice next week, you can forget about making any offers for several weeks. The same goes for the other studs on my list of players to target. So I will make an effort to target every top player until their performance removes any potential value in the trade.
My list of players to move is much shorter because I projected those players to do well for what I consider to be sound reasons. Unless I see that the situation has changed, I will not revise that reasoning on the strength of one game. The only things that would cause me to downgrade a player are injuries to the player or a key starter, demotion, or a reduced role in some phase of the game.
To finance all of those offers, here are some of the players I am looking to part with. There are very few players that I would never trade, but here are the ones that I am actively shopping because I think they are now overvalued.
Quarterback
Kurt Warner
I watched every snap of the Cardinals' game this week and Warner looked very good through most of it. He scrambled and bought time to make plays, he threw a lot of accurate passes, and he surpassed 300 yards with three TDs. Fitzgerald had a number of drops so Warner's numbers could have been even better. There are two reasons that I would want to move him. Firstly, he was facing the 49ers. The team was terrible at stopping the run or the pass last year and this year doesn't look any different so far. So I don't expect the Cardinals to be so effective against most of their opponents. But the big reason I would want to trade Warner is the fact that he has started just 27 of the last 65 games for his various teams. A few of those games came when he was benched in favor of Eli Manning, but the majority of missed time was due to injury. The Cardinals' line is not great, and I think Warner will get hurt again. If he does, it is possible that Matt Leinart could take the job permanently, even with the poor record of rookie QBs that are forced into action in their initial year. Warner's value could hardly be higher. An owner still won't give up Carson Palmer for Warner after one week, so I would probably look to make a multi-player deal targeting one of the QBs in my buy low thread. I accept that Warner could be top five if he plays a full season, but I would rather let another owner take on the associated risks. For the same reasons, I would consider moving Fitzgerald or Boldin if the Holt/Chad Johnson/Steve Smith owners are getting nervous.
Byron Leftwich
Leftwich faces the Steelers this week, and his value should fall considerably. His receivers are inexperienced and will take time to develop. He has a tendency to miss a game or two. His road record is poor, averaging 13.9 fantasy points since 2003. I would much rather cash in on the great start by Leftwich and target a possible top ten QB like Jake Plummer.
Honorable mention: Donovan McNabb might be worth packaging in a multi-player deal to acquire Peyton Manning. There is no other QB that would make me give up McNabb and it has to be noted that McNabb's perceived value is extremely high this week.
Running Back
Frank Gore
Gore looked very impressive against the Cardinals. He made a couple of big plays and gained ground several times after he should have been stopped. Both TD runs should have been prevented but he was able to move the tacklers into the end zone. He is ranked number one after one week and even the most rabid 49er fan would expect him to finish well below that. There are a lot of RBs that had a poor week, so I would target one of the better options and include Gore in the deal.
Brian Westbrook
Westbrook is a good fantasy option, but he is not a workhorse back like most of the studs. With just two games with 20 or more carries over his career, he relies on his receiving ability for the extra touches. Sometimes it pays off, but other times you are left with minimal points. His injury history is a bit of a worry too. He has never started more than 12 games in a season. His size does not make him a good goal line option and he is likely to lose those carries to Buckhalter or Moats. Don't get me wrong, Westbrook is a quality addition to any FF roster, especially in point per reception leagues, but his value is sky high after last week and the opportunity exists to upgrade.
Chester Taylor
The Vikings ran Taylor 31 times last week and he was involved in the passing game. The 2.8 ypc was poor and he will obviously not get such a heavy workload every game. He showed some promise, but there are better options available that happened to have a bad game last week.
Fred Taylor
It's worth seeing what you can get for him although most owners deeply mistrust his ability to stay healthy. It will probably take a few more good performances before Taylor's value is high enough, and with his low TD totals and injury history, that probably won't happen. But we can try.
Edgerrin James
James posted reasonable fantasy numbers, but it came against the 49ers. During the first half, James was only able to average around two yards per carry. The Cardinals persisted and James had around four yards per carry in the second half and managed to score. The line did not look capable of opening the holes and I would really think about moving James while he still has value.
Willie Parker
Most football fans will have seen Parker in the season opener. He almost broke a couple of big runs and he went over 100 yards. But Cowher knows that Parker can't get 29 carries every game, and he is already talking about ways to limit him. Davenport has been added, and will probably get the short yardage and goal line work that was previously Parker's to claim. His TD totals will probably limit his value again this year.
Wide Receivers
Donte' Stallworth
Stallworth had a huge game and is in the perfect situation. The Eagles love to pass and McNabb has worked with much less talented receivers in the past. Stallworth is no Owens, but on this team he could be very valuable. But 141 yards and a TD on nine targets makes his perceived value false. He won't score a 42 yard TD too often, or face a team like the Texans. With so many top receivers having a down week, I would use Stallworth to try and acquire a better prospect with a proven track record.
Laveranues Coles
Coles is another receiver that I like. He has two top 15 seasons to his name and has been badly limited by poor QB play and a toe injury for the last two years. The talent is still there and I have him on a few rosters after picking him up in the middle rounds. While I was impressed this week, Pennington is still an injury risk. The QBs behind him aren't that great, or at least not yet. Coles is not a big threat to score TDs with just 24 in the last 80 games. Ten targets will not often lead to eight catches for 150+ yards so I would see what upgrades might be available. Tennessee has a poor secondary and the Jets' schedule will get a lot tougher.
Tight End
Heath Miller
I actually lowered expectations for Heath Miller after his opening game. I was very high on him before because I anticipated that he would get a few more goal line looks after the departure of Jerome Bettis. With Randle El leaving, I also thought Miller could be the second option behind Ward in the passing game. I realize that things may change when Roethlisberger returns, but I was very disappointed to see Miller targeted on just three occasions. He happened to catch all three, and broke one for an 87 yard TD that should have been ruled out, but three targets will lead to a lot of poor games from Miller. This is a situation that has to be watched. Will Miller get an increased role in the passing game after his big contribution? Will Roethlisberger look to him more? I don't know those answers yet. But what I do know is that Miller has to be overvalued at this point. Some owners will have lost their game while facing Miller. With Heap and a few others having mediocre games, I think it is time to make a few offers with Miller as part of the bait.
My list of players to move is much shorter because I projected those players to do well for what I consider to be sound reasons. Unless I see that the situation has changed, I will not revise that reasoning on the strength of one game. The only things that would cause me to downgrade a player are injuries to the player or a key starter, demotion, or a reduced role in some phase of the game.
To finance all of those offers, here are some of the players I am looking to part with. There are very few players that I would never trade, but here are the ones that I am actively shopping because I think they are now overvalued.
Quarterback
Kurt Warner
I watched every snap of the Cardinals' game this week and Warner looked very good through most of it. He scrambled and bought time to make plays, he threw a lot of accurate passes, and he surpassed 300 yards with three TDs. Fitzgerald had a number of drops so Warner's numbers could have been even better. There are two reasons that I would want to move him. Firstly, he was facing the 49ers. The team was terrible at stopping the run or the pass last year and this year doesn't look any different so far. So I don't expect the Cardinals to be so effective against most of their opponents. But the big reason I would want to trade Warner is the fact that he has started just 27 of the last 65 games for his various teams. A few of those games came when he was benched in favor of Eli Manning, but the majority of missed time was due to injury. The Cardinals' line is not great, and I think Warner will get hurt again. If he does, it is possible that Matt Leinart could take the job permanently, even with the poor record of rookie QBs that are forced into action in their initial year. Warner's value could hardly be higher. An owner still won't give up Carson Palmer for Warner after one week, so I would probably look to make a multi-player deal targeting one of the QBs in my buy low thread. I accept that Warner could be top five if he plays a full season, but I would rather let another owner take on the associated risks. For the same reasons, I would consider moving Fitzgerald or Boldin if the Holt/Chad Johnson/Steve Smith owners are getting nervous.
Byron Leftwich
Leftwich faces the Steelers this week, and his value should fall considerably. His receivers are inexperienced and will take time to develop. He has a tendency to miss a game or two. His road record is poor, averaging 13.9 fantasy points since 2003. I would much rather cash in on the great start by Leftwich and target a possible top ten QB like Jake Plummer.
Honorable mention: Donovan McNabb might be worth packaging in a multi-player deal to acquire Peyton Manning. There is no other QB that would make me give up McNabb and it has to be noted that McNabb's perceived value is extremely high this week.
Running Back
Frank Gore
Gore looked very impressive against the Cardinals. He made a couple of big plays and gained ground several times after he should have been stopped. Both TD runs should have been prevented but he was able to move the tacklers into the end zone. He is ranked number one after one week and even the most rabid 49er fan would expect him to finish well below that. There are a lot of RBs that had a poor week, so I would target one of the better options and include Gore in the deal.
Brian Westbrook
Westbrook is a good fantasy option, but he is not a workhorse back like most of the studs. With just two games with 20 or more carries over his career, he relies on his receiving ability for the extra touches. Sometimes it pays off, but other times you are left with minimal points. His injury history is a bit of a worry too. He has never started more than 12 games in a season. His size does not make him a good goal line option and he is likely to lose those carries to Buckhalter or Moats. Don't get me wrong, Westbrook is a quality addition to any FF roster, especially in point per reception leagues, but his value is sky high after last week and the opportunity exists to upgrade.
Chester Taylor
The Vikings ran Taylor 31 times last week and he was involved in the passing game. The 2.8 ypc was poor and he will obviously not get such a heavy workload every game. He showed some promise, but there are better options available that happened to have a bad game last week.
Fred Taylor
It's worth seeing what you can get for him although most owners deeply mistrust his ability to stay healthy. It will probably take a few more good performances before Taylor's value is high enough, and with his low TD totals and injury history, that probably won't happen. But we can try.
Edgerrin James
James posted reasonable fantasy numbers, but it came against the 49ers. During the first half, James was only able to average around two yards per carry. The Cardinals persisted and James had around four yards per carry in the second half and managed to score. The line did not look capable of opening the holes and I would really think about moving James while he still has value.
Willie Parker
Most football fans will have seen Parker in the season opener. He almost broke a couple of big runs and he went over 100 yards. But Cowher knows that Parker can't get 29 carries every game, and he is already talking about ways to limit him. Davenport has been added, and will probably get the short yardage and goal line work that was previously Parker's to claim. His TD totals will probably limit his value again this year.
Wide Receivers
Donte' Stallworth
Stallworth had a huge game and is in the perfect situation. The Eagles love to pass and McNabb has worked with much less talented receivers in the past. Stallworth is no Owens, but on this team he could be very valuable. But 141 yards and a TD on nine targets makes his perceived value false. He won't score a 42 yard TD too often, or face a team like the Texans. With so many top receivers having a down week, I would use Stallworth to try and acquire a better prospect with a proven track record.
Laveranues Coles
Coles is another receiver that I like. He has two top 15 seasons to his name and has been badly limited by poor QB play and a toe injury for the last two years. The talent is still there and I have him on a few rosters after picking him up in the middle rounds. While I was impressed this week, Pennington is still an injury risk. The QBs behind him aren't that great, or at least not yet. Coles is not a big threat to score TDs with just 24 in the last 80 games. Ten targets will not often lead to eight catches for 150+ yards so I would see what upgrades might be available. Tennessee has a poor secondary and the Jets' schedule will get a lot tougher.
Tight End
Heath Miller
I actually lowered expectations for Heath Miller after his opening game. I was very high on him before because I anticipated that he would get a few more goal line looks after the departure of Jerome Bettis. With Randle El leaving, I also thought Miller could be the second option behind Ward in the passing game. I realize that things may change when Roethlisberger returns, but I was very disappointed to see Miller targeted on just three occasions. He happened to catch all three, and broke one for an 87 yard TD that should have been ruled out, but three targets will lead to a lot of poor games from Miller. This is a situation that has to be watched. Will Miller get an increased role in the passing game after his big contribution? Will Roethlisberger look to him more? I don't know those answers yet. But what I do know is that Miller has to be overvalued at this point. Some owners will have lost their game while facing Miller. With Heap and a few others having mediocre games, I think it is time to make a few offers with Miller as part of the bait.
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It's a PPR league and Roy is my 3rd WR. I'll take the upgrade at RB.....
