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Serpentine Draft (1 Viewer)

whr09

Footballguy
what should we, who won our leagues last year, expect at the end of a 12 team serpentine redraft at positions 10-12, what should we be happy with, who will most likely be thereI'm thinking maybe a stud wr such as randy or marvin or maybe a back such as taylor or edge. Are my expectations too high or not?

 
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Alot depends on your scoring system and drafting tendencies of your competition. In my 12 team league with fairly standard scroring, at this point of the offseason, I'm most likely looking at two of the following five:Edgerrin JamesFred TaylorMarvin HarrisonTorry HoltMarshall FaulkTo answer your question, I would say you may be on the mark.

 
...depends on...drafting tendencies of your competition...
:yes: I'd say the big 8 RBs (at this point in time) would be off the board:

LT, Holmes, McAlly, Green, Portis, Alex, Lewis, RW

So then you have a mix of the following guys for the 9-12 spots:

Taylor

Edge

Moss

Faulk

Harrison

And you could possibly throw in Barlow or the Davis brothers.

 
Whatever you decide to do, just remember a good general rule for drafting from near the flop - maximize value per two-pick turn by selecting two players of the same type - with the bold exception being Moss or Harrison at the first flop, who are really RBs anyway.You want to maximize the added talent level without waiting too long and losing too many talented players before adding other starters - especially at WR and QB (of course you never pass on a RB who drops for value). If you draft a hodge podge from the bottom flop, you will end with a very shallow level of talent and will be hoping for a lot of your bench players to be solid. Just do some mocks and see how it turns out from the flop using a variety of strategies.If you go RB-RB-WR-WR-QB-QB from the flop, you will probably end up with a very strong set of skill players to build on with your later picks.Same if you go Moss/Harrison-RB-RB-WR-QB-QB. If you like elite TEs, hope for one to be there at the 5/6 flop and go QB-TE instead of QB-QB. But do NOT reach for one at the 3/4 flop because you will really screw yourself at other skill positions if you add a top-TE that early. I've noticed from the bottom flop that you have to be rigid in your draft and simply abandon some players. Not true from the top of the round flop - that is a MUCH better flop throughout the top rounds.From the flop, do NOT reach for a QB at the top of the draft unless you are in a start 2 league. The 2 QBs you select at a flop will probably maximaize out at a level close enough to the elite guys, and the talent/value drops at WR and RB between your turns in rds 1-4 are enormous.

 
Thanks for all the help guys. I forgot to add the what we start on a weekly basis and the scoring stystem, so here you go.Start1 QB2 RB2 WR/TE 1 FLEX(WR/RB/TE)1 DEFENSE1 KICKEROR1 QB1 RB4 WR/TE1 DEFENSE1 KICKERThe scoring system is:6 pts for every rush/receive TD3 pts every passing TD.1 pts every rush/receive yrd1 pts every 20 pass yards.5 for every receptiondefense stardard scoringI know this could be in the assistant coach but I already had it in here so help me out, Thanks.

 
Whatever you decide to do, just remember a good general rule for drafting from near the flop - maximize value per two-pick turn by selecting two players of the same type - with the bold exception being Moss or Harrison at the first flop, who are really RBs anyway.
This is really good stuff :thumbup:
 
Whatever you decide to do, just remember a good general rule for drafting from near the flop - maximize value per two-pick turn by selecting two players of the same type - with the bold exception being Moss or Harrison at the first flop, who are really RBs anyway.You want to maximize the added talent level without waiting too long and losing too many talented players before adding other starters - especially at WR and QB (of course you never pass on a RB who drops for value). If you draft a hodge podge from the bottom flop, you will end with a very shallow level of talent and will be hoping for a lot of your bench players to be solid. Just do some mocks and see how it turns out from the flop using a variety of strategies.If you go RB-RB-WR-WR-QB-QB from the flop, you will probably end up with a very strong set of skill players to build on with your later picks.Same if you go Moss/Harrison-RB-RB-WR-QB-QB. If you like elite TEs, hope for one to be there at the 5/6 flop and go QB-TE instead of QB-QB. But do NOT reach for one at the 3/4 flop because you will really screw yourself at other skill positions if you add a top-TE that early. I've noticed from the bottom flop that you have to be rigid in your draft and simply abandon some players. Not true from the top of the round flop - that is a MUCH better flop throughout the top rounds.From the flop, do NOT reach for a QB at the top of the draft unless you are in a start 2 league. The 2 QBs you select at a flop will probably maximaize out at a level close enough to the elite guys, and the talent/value drops at WR and RB between your turns in rds 1-4 are enormous.
Good stuff, Marc. I've done what you suggest instinctively over the years and it's gelled into a sort of strategy. My redraft league re-draws for position every other round, so we don't have a true serpentine draft. However, I ended up with 4 12/1 picks last year - 3 in a row: rounds 5/6, 7/8, 9/10. I drafted like so (keep in mind that my league isn't "normal" - we can start 2 QBs, among other things):5.Brady/6.Vick - I think 13 or 14 QBs were gone.7.Hambrick/8.Another RB whose name escapes me (Betts?) - I'm sure he was a goldmine :rolleyes: 9.Conway/10.Thrash :yucky: Regardless of how the picks actually performed, I agree with Marc that this is a good way to handle drafting at the turn - unless some incredible value falls.
 
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With your scoring system and the ability to start 3 RB with the flex, I'd be taking RB's with my first two picks guaranteed.

 
At those spots, IMO, You could be looking at something like this:Pick#10 #10 Edge #15 BarlowPick#11 #11 F. Taylor #14 M. Faulk..... :wall: Pick#12 #12 M. Harrison #13 T. HoltWith that being said,which pick would you feel more confident with? I would feel much better with the 12 spot! You can then come back with the likes of D. Staley @36 and Bennett @37.

 
With your scoring system and the ability to start 3 RB with the flex, I'd be taking RB's with my first two picks guaranteed.
Absolutely.
:thumbup: I would shoot for 2 starting RBs, with the 2nd being Dillon. If you can land DIllon as a RB2, he could be the 2003 SDavis of the draft. However, you dont want him as your RB1, to chancy.

I would imagine at 1.10 you would see James, Henry, Faulk, Taylor. I would take James or Taylor. James is in a contract season where he may not be able to be resigned. This leaves you with:

James/Taylor

Dillon

Moss/Harrison/Holt will probably be there, so will Culpep, Vick, dont fall for that trap. You can win with WR-RB, but it is easier going RB-RB, especially with a pro-set (3RB) start option. I love those leagues!

 
In the swing, I would generally go RB-RB or RB-WR. The one exception is in a 10-team league, and if you can get Moss and Harrison, it might be well worth it to WR-WR here. As always, it depends on the league starting requirements. The one issue with taking WR-WR in rounds 1 & 2 is it gives you inflexibility later.....you have to take 2 RBs in the next swing, and you have to take a QB in the 3rd swing.....opponents could use this to their advantage of knowing what position you need.

 
We've completed the 1st 8 picks in round 1 in 1 of my dynasty leagues so far and here is how it went.

1.1 P. Holmes

1.2 LT

1.3 McAllister

1.4 Portis

1.5 S. Alexander

1.6 A. Green (My pick)

1.7 J. Lewis

1.8 P. Manning :shock:

1.9 RW

1.10 Vick

1.11 Edge

1.12 D. Davis :shock:

 
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Good stuff here guys. Thanks a lot.I have to 11th and 14th so I think I may be looking at Taylor/Barlow or Dillon b/c the owner behind me loves Faulk and that is just fine w/ me. Keep it coming.

 
Good stuff here guys. Thanks a lot.I have to 11th and 14th so I think I may be looking at Taylor/Barlow or Dillon b/c the owner behind me loves Faulk and that is just fine w/ me. Keep it coming.
If you end with Taylor or Edge at the #11 spot, kiss the sky.If Faulk is still there in the 2nd instead of going to your buddy, do NOT overlook him b/c of his injury history - if you add a RB2 who performs like atop-5 RB for most of the year, you simply weather the RB spot when Faulk misses time (hoefully by choosing the correct backup between Gordon and Jackson) and you dominate the RB position all other weeks.A Taylor/Faulk combo could be HUGE.From the #11 spot, you have to seriously consider MOss or Harrison - even in a 3 RB possible league - when you are drafting after #10. Those two guys score as well as any RB you will get at that range and there are only two of them.
 
Thanks Marc. I love the idea of getting Moss, but this league generally player to player loves rb's with the exception of one person who wound up with owens and moss last year. He has never won. Everyone in my league picks rb-rb their first two picks, and if you take a wr, its just hard to land any statring rb in the 3rd that is not in a rbbc situation. Should I still draft Moss if Taylor or Edge isn't there? What kind of running backs that could be potential sleepers should fall to me in the third round that are worth soomething if I end up going wr wr with getting like Moss and Harrison for example. Overall, I'm curious what people could expect at the rb position if they go they go the route of wr-wr toward the end of the serpentine in round three. Players I expect to be there toward the end of round three and the beginning of four are maybe julius jones, kevin jones, thomas jones, anthony thomas, moe williams, and tyrone wheatley. Are there any I'm missing, or am I being to pessimistic about one's chances of landing a descent rb at that slot.

 
Players I expect to be there toward the end of round three and the beginning of four are maybe julius jones, kevin jones, thomas jones, anthony thomas, moe williams, and tyrone wheatley. Are there any I'm missing, or am I being to pessimistic about one's chances of landing a descent rb at that slot.
Maybe TJ is worth the 3rd since he will be Chicago's starter, or maybe KJ or JJ, but none of the others are worth a 3rd round pick, IMO.
 
Thanks Marc. I love the idea of getting Moss, but this league generally player to player loves rb's with the exception of one person who wound up with owens and moss last year. He has never won. Everyone in my league picks rb-rb their first two picks, and if you take a wr, its just hard to land any statring rb in the 3rd that is not in a rbbc situation. Should I still draft Moss if Taylor or Edge isn't there? What kind of running backs that could be potential sleepers should fall to me in the third round that are worth soomething if I end up going wr wr with getting like Moss and Harrison for example. Overall, I'm curious what people could expect at the rb position if they go they go the route of wr-wr toward the end of the serpentine in round three. Players I expect to be there toward the end of round three and the beginning of four are maybe julius jones, kevin jones, thomas jones, anthony thomas, moe williams, and tyrone wheatley. Are there any I'm missing, or am I being to pessimistic about one's chances of landing a descent rb at that slot.
Warning - this is a LONG reply.I believe you are being pessimistic - if your league is as RB-heavy as you say, you will be extraordinarily lucky to have Fred taylor there at #11. You are probably looking at a player in your personal RB11-13 range. Also, if your league is as RB heavy as you imply, Moss or Harrison will be there in the second - go RB in round one. PERIOD. Then see what is available for your RB2 in the second. I do not recommend stud WR as a way of drafting unless you are in a three-wide mandatory or a pt/rec. for WRs/TEs only league. And, no I would not rate Moss higher than a top-10 RB, of which I believe Edge and Fred are two, but you are drafting from #11.The RB13/14 (think '03 Tiki Barber numbers) is probably outscored by Moss or Harrison, and you will have the edge of a top WR to pair with your RB1. I am not necessarily recommending you take a WR, but I think it is a good idea if Moss or Harrison are there in the second. If you go that way, filling the RB2/flex RB spots with your 3/4 round picks is virtually required. Grab two from the list you mention - or look for TJ Duckett or Lee Suggs. I have seen good RB2 candidates drop to the bottom of the third in a lot of mock drafts - the guys you've mentioned I see going in the 4th or later.A platoon of RB2 level players can work, but you are really banking on that RB1 when you accompany the RB1 with an elite WR. And if you go WR early, you will need to ignore something else while you spend some time up top on RB value picks and top shelf WRs who fall through the cracks I'd forego any TEs or QBs before the 6th round - your "splurge" pick in the top half of the draft was on the elite WR and filling in the starting WR and RB spots is more crucial than the luxury of an elite TE or a QB whose production can be nearly matched with a QBBC - recall that QB is the position most clearly affected by matchups - and a platoon can play like the fifth or sixth best QB on most weeks.Fill in the RB2 and RB flex spot with 3/4, then take more upper level WRs - hopefully two of them - with the 5/6 - expect in such a RB friendly league that really strong WRs like Booker, Koren Robinson, Price, Toomer, Andre Johnson, and Jimmy Smith will slip through to the mid-sixth in most 12 team drafts. This gives you a very solid three-wide rotation OR (if your 4th round RB flex pans out) a three-RB option each week. Three-wide can beat three-RBs on any given week. Especially if you are fielding Fred Taylor level at RB1, Moss, Jimmy Smith, and Amani Toomer every week. All you need is your RB2 to perform "ok" and you can beat almost any three RB rotation on any given week.If you are really worried about that 2nd round WR putting you behind other teams in ability to consistently score, consider this: last year, in one league, I went THenry in the first from the #10 spot and Moss n the second. I platooned my RB2 spot with a variety of guys, including Hearst, George, DDavis was added through the WW, and TJ Duckett. I had a REALLY bad run of luck in this H2H league that saw my points against approximately 165 (nearly 14 points each game of the FF regular season) more than the next highest points against - and I was more than 15 points behind the rest of the league's average points against. I was outscored 8 games in the year and missed the playoffs, but the TEAM was the second highest scoring team in the league. The strategy was done in by poor luck, but the strategy is sound. The inclination if you can start three RBs is to do so. My main league is a flex league, and I traditionally have three RBs to play. However, last year I suffered with Faulk and had WGreen as his accompanying RB2. I was forced to play at the RB1/2 spots their backups and occasional players like OSmith until Faulk started carrying the position from week 9 on. I played with three-wide lineups for at least 3/4 of the regular season, and I used three-wide exclusively in the playoffs since I lost JJax, WGreen, Gordon and Arlen Harris as serviceable players - I was playing Faulk and either Emmitt Smith or Trung Canidate through the playoffs at RB2. I won that league for the second year in a row, with Horn and ChadJohn at WR1/2, Faulk at RB1, and Javone Walker/Rod Gardner pulling duty at the flex. I got the #1 overall seed in the playoffs. After the bye week, I beat the #1 scorer and three-RB playing team that had Fred Taylor and Jamal Lewis at the RB1/2 spots. In the Super Bowl, I beat the three-RB team that had Deuce, Curtis Martin, and Tiki Barber. You CAN beat three-RB rotations using three-WRs on a consistent basis if you are a good FF player - do NOT be intimidated by stud-RB lemmings who tell you you have to have three RBs to start if you possibly can start three. The only thing drafting RBs 1-2-3 does for you is frees the rest of your draft to concentrate on other positions - those people find WR "values" late and figure that's all you need to do - ignore them and think for yourself on WRs. There are likely to be 6-8 top level WRs who can acrtually perform like a WR1 - and they will be gone by the end of the third,top of the fourth round. Meanwhile, RB2 level this year will probably stretch past your mandatory 24. The RB25-30 will probably make a decent, or at least adequate, RB2 - especially when the injuries starrt to hit the position, as they always do.You can really take advantage in a RB heavy league of those WR values that everyone allows to fall into the 5th and 6th rounds. Your QB position has to suffer - but take two in the 7th-9th rounds and you end with a good combination - last year, never drafting a QB before the 6th resulted in several interesting and productive combos, including one league of Green/Garcia, another of Ramsey/Hasselbeck, and another of McNair(!!)/Ramsey.This year, players like Plummer (8th in pts/game in most leagues), Brunell, Leftwich, Drew Bledsoe, Palmer, and a variety of other decent passers will fall. TE depth is excellent this year, too. Waiting at QB and TE to the 7th-9th rounds will still generate quality players that have upsides at the top of the charts.
 
Also - Garner or Duce Staly may drop to the latter parts of the third, and if you release some misinformation, you can skew your odds.I have consistently seen a potential top-15 back slippnig to the late third/early fourth - Shipp, for instance, Curtis Martin and Thomas Jones all have very low ADP's right now and may all evolve into decent RB2/flex RB players for you.

 
If you end with Taylor or Edge at the #11 spot, kiss the sky.If Faulk is still there in the 2nd instead of going to your buddy, do NOT overlook him b/c of his injury history - if you add a RB2 who performs like atop-5 RB for most of the year, you simply weather the RB spot when Faulk misses time (hoefully by choosing the correct backup between Gordon and Jackson) and you dominate the RB position all other weeks.A Taylor/Faulk combo could be HUGE.
I hate to get into a raging debate about this the first week in May, but I cannot 100% agree with Marc on this one (and we normally agree on most topics).Personally, I would not want to invest a first round pick on James, Faulk, or Taylor. While I agree that ppg is likely a better indicator than year-end ranking, I think those 3 guys have some issues that make me leary of their success.IMO, Faulk has little left on his tread and his injuries will become more frequent and more annoying to fantasy owners. Coupled with the Rams selection of a high profile rookie to take away some of the workload, I don't see Faulk as a Top 10 RB by any standard anymore, not even in ppg.Similarly, Edge has had so many injuries and has had so many high carry games that he carries too much risk. Of all active RB, Edge has had the highest percentage of 20+ carry games out of games played (72.3%) over the past 5 seasons--only RW and George are at 60%. That's partly why he has been so productive and partly why he has been oft-injured.Last year may go down as Taylor's career year in terms of carries and yardage, and his TDs have steadily decreased, from 17 as a rookie to 7 last year. He had more than 50 carries more than any other season. I don't consider him an "avoid at all cost injury risk" as other do and would consider drafting him, but it's hard to forgot his prior injury woes. Also, there has already been talk by the Jags of using rookie Greg Jones as a short yardage and goal line back, potentially cutting even more into Taylor's numbers.If I were in your position, I would probably take Moss in the first and see who's still there in the second. I would even consider taking Harrison in the second, as I think those two will be a cut above all other WR this year. (I happen to think Boldin, Ward, and Johnson fall off a little and Owens will struggle some in Philly.)There are also a lot of RB that may not be quite as costly as a first or second round pick that likely could still be worthy of RB2 status. If you feel like rolling the dice, several of those guys could likely get you more total points when factoring the Moss/Harrison advantage.I'm a little different than most of the staff and sharks, and I don't have any qualms in playing people like Shipp, Jones/Thomas, Dillon, Martin, Julius Jones, Dunn, etc. These guys may not be Top 10, but they are are decent RB2 candidates. There are probably more viable RB this year than ever before, and I think there are only a few truly differnce makers at WR.To use an example from last year, if you picked up Moss and Harrison and then SDavis and A-Train in your first 4 picks, you would have scored 805 points for those 4 spots (267 + 188 + 208 + 142).If you went with Taylor, Barber, Horn, and Boston, you would have had 713 points for 4 spots (236 + 186 + 159 + 132).That's about all I have time for right now . . . Marc, I'm sure, will beg to differ.
 
Marc, I understand where you are coming from, and I like your explanations and support. However, you said to get rb-rb or rb-wr. However, it is very possible that my league will allow me to get perhaps Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss in the first two rounds. Is it a good idea to grab both if I know I can get the other one, or is it a stretch to pick either in the first. One could probably get a player like Marcel Shipp in the third, and then, fill out the roster with two more wide recievers since we are able to start four wrs and 1 rb. Is this a good idea if possible, to get the top two wide recievers if we can start four wide recievers and one rb? It is so tempting to have both on a team. Also, I believe the elite rb status cuts of at Fred Taylor. I see Randy Moss after him. Where do you see Harrison? I see him between maybe Faulk and Davis or something.

 
I hate stud WR theory. I don't think you MUST get two top-20 RBs like most folks do, but unless you get points from your WR's receptions, there's a host of reasons I have for rejecting stud WR. Most that would create more debate than would answer your question.David and I have always diverged on Edge - see some debates for the summer for reference - and we have radically divergent views of Taylor, apparently - I see Taylor a few TDs away from elite status, with a clearer path to 2G total yards than ANY back except for LT, Priest, and a big maybe for Deuce - who also suffers from lack of TD production, but is a near universal top-5 RB. I believe Taylor's likely produciton combined with his potential make him as clear a first round RB as exists after the top-5. ON Faulk, I agree that he will have ups and downs - and is not worth a first round selection over the stud WRs. But, he makes an excellent RB2 for those 10 20+ point games he'll probably have.I believe Moss is as deserving of a first round selection as any player after the top-10 RBs are off the board. Immediately after him is Harrison - I don't separate them, but I do place Harrison second. Afte that come the RB11-16, then Holt, then more RBs to round out the top-20.Go look at FBGuys' home page and check out our expert rankings for the top-40 overall.Now, one thing I didn't notice till just now - 4 WRs+1 RB lineups, I would strongly consider going WR-heavy in 3/4/5/6 if you take a stud WR in the first two rounds as you then could land a three-wide rotation of WRs that works in normal flex, and if your WR4 comes on . . .However, that said, I would not bank on using a 4 WR lineup all year long and drafting accordingly. I see those lineups as an "out" for the guys who take a lot of RB injuries during the year. And, only those top-2 or 3 WRs are RB-worthy. You still need RB production to consistently win against teams starting three RBs.If you commit to running 4 WRs and only one RB all year long - and do a stud WR draft ending wtih a lower level RB2 as your RB1 - you can count on losing two weeks - the weeks Moss and Harrison are on byes. Also, what do you do when your RB is on a bye? And how about when your WR3 in the 4WR lineup is on a bye - those are questionable weeks for you, too. And don't get me started on what would happen to you if you were struck by an injury to your first RB.

 
To use an example from last year, if you picked up Moss and Harrison and then SDavis and A-Train in your first 4 picks, you would have scored 805 points for those 4 spots (267 + 188 + 208 + 142).If you went with Taylor, Barber, Horn, and Boston, you would have had 713 points for 4 spots (236 + 186 + 159 + 132).That's about all I have time for right now . . . Marc, I'm sure, will beg to differ.
Yes, you do have time for more right now.Oh, wait - I get it. I guess I'll differ here, too.You were drafting with children if you got stud WRs and SDavis in a 12-team league. Gotta drop to player #35 before the guy who takes stud WRs from the bottom of the 1st gets to draft again - A-train you MIGHT have got, but SDavis was a top-20 selection last year and you'd have to be very creative to get those three top-20 players you have on team A.If you replace SDavis with another A-Train, you end with team A getting you 739 on the year - team B got you 713 - you'd have had an extra 1.62 pts a game going stud WR, but a lot of headaches at RB all year long, and less consistent performance given your RB1 would have been A-train.
 
SDavis was probably not the best example to use, but there were other guys that could be used that still were "cheaper." Off the top of my head, Pittman, Dunn, Duckett, Barlow (maybe), Hambrick on draft day. Westbrook, DDavis, MWilliams, and Rudi produced later on, but drafting one of those guys would have been nothing more than dumb luck. This year there could be even more "discount" options. And if you draft several RB, you can always go RBBC and play matchups. Yes, I would rather just have LT and leave him in there every week, but sometimes life does not work out like that. (And I actually was in a league that SDavis fell to me as the last pick in Round 3, and I would not call any of the other owners a "child." I believe I took AGreen at 12, Henry at 13, SDavis at 36, and CJohnson at 37.)Overall, hard as it may seem, I don't enter any draft with a strategy. I let the players fall to me and then pick them. Whichever guy seems like the clear value pick is the one I'll take, so at any point I could go off in any direction.I'm not "down" on Taylor, although I don't think he can get enough carries to make a run at 2G and won't have a high enough ypc. He just missed 350 carries last year and barely broke 1,500 yards. That's nothing to sneeze at, but that's a lot of ground to cover to get another 500 yards. My opinion on Taylor changes on my mood at the moment. In a league that can start 3 RB, I likely would pick him bottom of Round 1.

 
The RB13/14 (think '03 Tiki Barber numbers) is probably outscored by Moss or Harrison, and you will have the edge of a top WR to pair with your RB1.
This is not true, it is only half of the equation. Moss outscoring your RB2 (or RB1 for that matter) has no bearing. The true value is the difference between Moss and the RB2 you could of had and the WR you would draft instead of moss. It looks like this:
(Randy_drafted_2nd_round + RB2_drafted_3rd_round) - (RB2_drafted_2nd_round - WR1_drafted_3rd_round)To skew it even worse, the above assumes you are only deciding between drafting RB-WR-RB or RB-RB-WR.This can work ONLY IF you guess right with your RB2 in the 3rd.

JAA

 
I have consistently seen a potential top-15 back slippnig to the late third/early fourth - Shipp, for instance, Curtis Martin and Thomas Jones all have very low ADP's right now and may all evolve into decent RB2/flex RB players for you.
You can bet the house they will be there. You need to pick the right one though. If you miss, you could be screwed royally (see Amos 2003).
 
If I were in your position, I would probably take Moss in the first and see who's still there in the second. I would even consider taking Harrison in the second, as I think those two will be a cut above all other WR this year. (I happen to think Boldin, Ward, and Johnson fall off a little and Owens will struggle some in Philly.)
For those playing alongWR-WR-RB-RB vs RB-RB-WR-WR
Code:
(Moss + Harrison + RB_in_3rd + RB_in_4th) - (RB_in_1st + RB_in_2nd + WR_in_3rd + WR_in_4th)
 
Another piece of information RE 3-RB option. I find you only really need 3 WR to depend on (maybe draft 4) and load up on RBs. If you plan on startng 3RBs (like I do), I will draft as many as value allows me to, at least 5. If you draft RB-RB-(RB or WR) you will see a lot of RB talent still on the board because people think they need to grab WRs, well you dont. At this point you are drafting behind everyone (logically) where you are still taking RBs, they start taking WR. When they get back to taking RB3/4 you start on the WR talent. Since WR are much more closely grouped, you are getting much more value than they are. In reality they are drafting positionaly, and you are drafting for value.JAA

 
If I were in your position, I would probably take Moss in the first and see who's still there in the second.  I would even consider taking Harrison in the second, as I think those two will be a cut above all other WR this year.  (I happen to think Boldin, Ward, and Johnson fall off a little and Owens will struggle some in Philly.)
For those playing alongWR-WR-RB-RB vs RB-RB-WR-WR
Code:
(Moss + Harrison + RB_in_3rd + RB_in_4th) - (RB_in_1st + RB_in_2nd + WR_in_3rd + WR_in_4th)
JAA -If you missed it, I stated the same exact thing and even gave an example and provided the math as well in my earlier post.No matter how you slice it and what strategy you utilize, you still need the players you draft to outproduce their draft position. It's as simple as that.If you draft a RB in the first round and he produces as a second rounder, you are in the hole. If you draft a RB in the second round and he produces as a first rounder, you are ahead of the game. The more guys you pick up that have positive value and avoid negative value, you will have a solid team.I do agree, though, that taking a WR in Round 5 or Round 9 will have minimal impact on your team's overall scoring.
 
I'm not "down" on Taylor, although I don't think he can get enough carries to make a run at 2G and won't have a high enough ypc. He just missed 350 carries last year and barely broke 1,500 yards. That's nothing to sneeze at, but that's a lot of ground to cover to get another 500 yards. My opinion on Taylor changes on my mood at the moment. In a league that can start 3 RB, I likely would pick him bottom of Round 1.
Side track here - but 500 more yards on the ground is not his issue. I see 325-350 carries again, for around 1500 yards again, plus approx. 60 receptions (up from around 50 last year) for 5-600 yards. 2G total. Besides FB Edwadrs, Taylor's the only viable receiving threat out of the backfield. Kevin Jones has stone hands.Give Taylor the same number of TDs as last year, and he still reaches top-10, bump those TDs and look out.On you lucking into SDavis at the end of the third last year, I am actually shocked by that. On your alternartive players, add their EOY numbers in - most did not equal, and most vastly underperformed A-Train's 142 points on the year. And none - including Barlow, who was generally an early 3rd round pick - gave you consistent performance.Finally, yes - Rudi, DD, and Westbrook would have been "lucked into it" players and would have been drafted WELL after the early fourth round last year.
 
No matter how you slice it and what strategy you utilize, you still need the players you draft to outproduce their draft position. It's as simple as that.If you draft a RB in the first round and he produces as a second rounder, you are in the hole. If you draft a RB in the second round and he produces as a first rounder, you are ahead of the game. The more guys you pick up that have positive value and avoid negative value, you will have a solid team.
:thumbup: Well stated. That is the risk of drafting a WR, even an elite one, in the first two rounds. You must then draft a RB in the successive rounds who outproduces his draft spot. It is significantly harder to find those round 4 and down RBs who outproduce their draft spot.Of course, how many second round RBs bombed last year? A LOT - CuMar, Dillon, WGreen, Eddie George, and Charlie Garner - all probably taken in the 2nd round - generally failed to live up to their draft positions (though CuMar fnished #17, and Eddie #23, so they are arguably decent 2nd round picks). Only one of the three elite WRs selected in the 2nd round failed to live up to his draft spot - and TO still ended as a WR1, finishing #9 overall in most systems.
 
The RB13/14 (think '03 Tiki Barber numbers) is probably outscored by Moss or Harrison, and you will have the edge of a top WR to pair with your RB1.
This is not true, it is only half of the equation. Moss outscoring your RB2 (or RB1 for that matter) has no bearing. The true value is the difference between Moss and the RB2 you could of had and the WR you would draft instead of moss.
Yes - David and I discussed that issue.
 
No matter how you slice it and what strategy you utilize, you still need the players you draft to outproduce their draft position. It's as simple as that.
Yes, but drafting a WR in the 1st 2 rounds exaggerates that point. All of it as we know comes back to our 'projections'. It is a lot easier to project approx the top 20 RBs than it is to project RBs 21-40. 21-40 is where you will typically find your round 3 or 4 RBs. Therefore your risk even before picking your round3/4 RB is greater than you would like it to be.JAA
 
I admit Taylor intrigues me. Leaving out his health issues over the years, last year was statistically his best in terms of carries and yardage, yet it was his only his third best season ranking wise (when he played most of the season).This is somewhat perplexing. He ranked #4, #6, and #11 before, and then had a monster year and only ranked #8. If nothing else, that tells me RB scoring has increased dramatically (but we already knew that).If you meant Taylor will go over 2K yards combines, that's not a stretch at all, seeing how he had 1,942 last year. Taylor could very well be this year's version of the 2003 Ahman Green.I'd happily trade 50 carries and 200 yards for Tatlor to get back into double digit TD. If he stays as a compiler, his ceiling is certianly lower than if he reverted back to averaging a TD per game.If I had to choose between Moss and Taylor late in the first, I would probably take Moss. If Taylor were there early in the second, I would not hesitate to take him. Like I mentioned before, it's hard to tell until you see who was already off the board and what strategy the other owner's might be going with.Again, depending upon how things played out, I could just as easily take Edge. I often take players I would normally advise against drafting if things shape up where that player might have fallen to a point where I would consider him. Sometimes you end up in a draft slot that you can get a sense of who will be available, and you really have to take someone you would rather not.I think what happened last year was that someone had asked if Stephen Davis had been drafted or not. However, he hadn't been and the owner picked someone else, but people thought he had been picked already. It was a fluke thing that likely won't happen again.

 
The RB13/14 (think '03 Tiki Barber numbers) is probably outscored by Moss or Harrison, and you will have the edge of a top WR to pair with your RB1.
This is not true, it is only half of the equation. Moss outscoring your RB2 (or RB1 for that matter) has no bearing. The true value is the difference between Moss and the RB2 you could of had and the WR you would draft instead of moss.
Yes - David and I discussed that issue.
I keep rereading both of your posts, can you directly quote this discussion? I am interested in hearing it. I saw some mention of drafing certain players and adding up points, but nothing on this discussion specifically.Thanks,JAA
 
Especially if you are fielding Fred Taylor level at RB1, Moss, Jimmy Smith, and Amani Toomer every week. All you need is your RB2 to perform "ok" and you can beat almost any three RB rotation on any given week.
Marc,Id like to call you out on this. Can you provide some proof to this in 2003? Feel free to substitute someone other than Sniffy since he was out the 1st four weeks.EDIT: I guess this comes down to two things -1. How does someone define 'ok'2. Being able to draft an 'ok' RB2 and Taylor, Moss, Toomer, and Smith in the 1st 5 rounds (is that possible)?Thanks,JAA
 
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If I had to choose between Moss and Taylor late in the first, I would probably take Moss. If Taylor were there early in the second, I would not hesitate to take him. Like I mentioned before, it's hard to tell until you see who was already off the board and what strategy the other owner's might be going with.
There's our major difference - I would take Taylor and hope for n elite WR in the second, or else be perfectly happy backing up my Taylor pick with one of the RB11-16 guys I preject to be avilable in the early 2nd.I'll take the Taylor - Harrison combo OR the Taylor - RB11-16 combo before the Moss - RB11-16 combo. Especially considering this individual can play 1 RB with 4 WRs if he gets in injury trouble over the year, drafting alot of WRs early instead of giving in to the lemming RB mentiality is enticing - however, that first RB has to have potential to really blow up into elite status to be competitive each week.In a league where you can go 2-2 and flex either a WR or RB, or 4WR-1RB, getting an elite WR is equivelant to getting a RB1.
 
Especially if you are fielding Fred Taylor level at RB1, Moss, Jimmy Smith, and Amani Toomer every week.  All you need is your RB2 to perform "ok" and you can beat almost any three RB rotation on any given week.
Marc,Id like to call you out on this. Can you provide some proof to this in 2003? Feel free to substitute someone other than Sniffy since he was out the 1st four weeks.EDIT: I guess this comes down to two things -1. How does someone define 'ok'2. Being able to draft an 'ok' RB2 and Taylor, Moss, Toomer, and Smith in the 1st 5 rounds (is that possible)?Thanks,JAA
Re-read the long posts above by me again - there is an excellent example of my performance against three Rbs over the course of the year while being forced to start 3-wide.I didn't DRAFT that way, but it CAN be done on a consistent basis. Go to WR 20 versus RB 30 for an understanding of why from the flex spot.
 
The RB13/14 (think '03 Tiki Barber numbers) is probably outscored by Moss or Harrison, and you will have the edge of a top WR to pair with your RB1.
This is not true, it is only half of the equation. Moss outscoring your RB2 (or RB1 for that matter) has no bearing. The true value is the difference between Moss and the RB2 you could of had and the WR you would draft instead of moss.
Yes - David and I discussed that issue.
I keep rereading both of your posts, can you directly quote this discussion? I am interested in hearing it. I saw some mention of drafing certain players and adding up points, but nothing on this discussion specifically.Thanks,JAA
That was it - I replaced his A-train numbers with another A-train's numbers simply because I felt it was unrealistic last year to draft stud WRs + SDavisGetting stud WRs and two A-train level RBs at the 3/4 flop was realistic to me.
 
If I had to choose between Moss and Taylor late in the first, I would probably take Moss. If Taylor were there early in the second, I would not hesitate to take him. Like I mentioned before, it's hard to tell until you see who was already off the board and what strategy the other owner's might be going with.
There's our major difference - I would take Taylor and hope for n elite WR in the second, or else be perfectly happy backing up my Taylor pick with one of the RB11-16 guys I preject to be avilable in the early 2nd.I'll take the Taylor - Harrison combo OR the Taylor - RB11-16 combo before the Moss - RB11-16 combo. Especially considering this individual can play 1 RB with 4 WRs if he gets in injury trouble over the year, drafting alot of WRs early instead of giving in to the lemming RB mentiality is enticing - however, that first RB has to have potential to really blow up into elite status to be competitive each week.In a league where you can go 2-2 and flex either a WR or RB, or 4WR-1RB, getting an elite WR is equivelant to getting a RB1.
Lets run with this using the expert rankings (modified by me lightly). 12 teams, 1-2-2-1-1-1 +1-FLEX(RB/WR/TE) you draft 1.10 (serpentine). Catch is I draft 1.11 with my RB heavy style (for fun we will say I am required to take a 3 RBs first 3). Players taken ahead of you are:
Code:
1.1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD1.2 RB Priest Holmes, KC1.3 RB Deuce McAllister, NO1.4 RB Ahman Green, GB1.5 RB Clinton Portis, Was1.6 RB Jamal Lewis, Bal1.7 RB Shaun Alexander, Sea1.8 WR Randy Moss, Min1.9 RB Ricky Williams, Mia
We will do a quick 5 rounds (if you are around) and see how it turns out ... for fun.JAA
 
2. Being able to draft an 'ok' RB2 and Taylor, Moss, Toomer, and Smith in the 1st 5 rounds (is that possible)?Thanks,JAA
Yes - there will be good starting quality receivers of the top-24 range deep into the draft - at least into round 6. Cgheck out antsports for who will be available into the late 5th round.From the bottom flop, you can grab a RB in round 1, stud WR in round two, at the 3/4 flop another RB of decent quality for RB2, and a top-10 WR. At the 5/6 flop, best WR or two and you now have 3-4 starting quality WRs of the crew I mentioned, plus two RBs, one of whom is a RB1 and th eother an "ok" RB2.From there you MUST draft two QBs at the 7/8 flop since you are behind the rest of the league at those positin, and then fill in the rest of your lineup. It is not an attractive way to draft, but getting that much qwuality in the top-6 rounds from the bottom flop is entirely possible.
 
If I had to choose between Moss and Taylor late in the first, I would probably take Moss.  If Taylor were there early in the second, I would not hesitate to take him.  Like I mentioned before, it's hard to tell until you see who was already off the board and what strategy the other owner's might be going with.
There's our major difference - I would take Taylor and hope for n elite WR in the second, or else be perfectly happy backing up my Taylor pick with one of the RB11-16 guys I preject to be avilable in the early 2nd.I'll take the Taylor - Harrison combo OR the Taylor - RB11-16 combo before the Moss - RB11-16 combo. Especially considering this individual can play 1 RB with 4 WRs if he gets in injury trouble over the year, drafting alot of WRs early instead of giving in to the lemming RB mentiality is enticing - however, that first RB has to have potential to really blow up into elite status to be competitive each week.In a league where you can go 2-2 and flex either a WR or RB, or 4WR-1RB, getting an elite WR is equivelant to getting a RB1.
Lets run with this using the expert rankings (modified by me lightly). 12 teams, 1-2-2-1-1-1 +1-FLEX(RB/WR/TE) you draft 1.10 (serpentine). Catch is I draft 1.11 with my RB heavy style (for fun we will say I am required to take a 3 RBs first 3). Players taken ahead of you are:
Code:
1.1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD1.2 RB Priest Holmes, KC1.3 RB Deuce McAllister, NO1.4 RB Ahman Green, GB1.5 RB Clinton Portis, Was1.6 RB Jamal Lewis, Bal1.7 RB Shaun Alexander, Sea1.8 WR Randy Moss, Min1.9 RB Ricky Williams, Mia
We will do a quick 5 rounds (if you are around) and see how it turns out ... for fun.JAA
Will do - not this week or next. Too much keeping me busy to mock draft this week, but imagine the bottom flop, and imagine the draft goes exactly in the order of the average overall rankings, and tell me what you come up with.
 
Whether this adds or detracts from this discussion, here is the EOY value rankings from 2003 for the Top 24 players (basically 2 rounds in a 12-team draft):

Holmes 231LT 204AGreen 203Lewis 169RMoss 163Holt 138Portis 133Alexander 127Deuce 122Taylor 94Gonzalez 92CJohnson 91RW 90Harrison 83Boldin 82Edge 79Ward 78Mason 75Culpepper 74SMoss 73Henry 72Manning 69SDavis 66Sharpe 65
For those that are new to the value concept, it basically involves comparing a player to the lowest ranked player that would start at that position. For example, in a 12-team league, the #1 QB (Culpepper) would be compared against the #12 QB, who theoretically would be the last fantasy start in a 12-team league. Basically, you subtract the points scored from the lowest ranked player (in this case the #12 QB) and the difference is their value. After doing this for each position, the players were then sorted for the list above.The numbers I listed are relative to the #12 QB and TE, the #24 RB, and the #30 WR. (I'm not sure why Doug goes with 30 WR, but that's how he does it.)Flex positions really mess with this theory, although the Draft Dominator should be able to account for this.
 
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I didn't DRAFT that way, but it CAN be done on a consistent basis. Go to WR 20 versus RB 30 for an understanding of why from the flex spot.
In one of my basic leagues:
RB30 Hearst, Garrison RB DEN 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 178 768 4.3 3 25 211 8.4 1 2 119.9
WR20 McCareins, Justin WR NYJ 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 1 13 13.0 0 51 896 17.6 8 1 129.6
See my point? How many players were drafted ahead of McCareins? Where would Hearst have been drafted? I can bet you Hearst was targetted while McCar was an after thought. Why waste the picks on shooting for a top 20 WR?
 
Yes - there will be good starting quality receivers of the top-24 range deep into the draft - at least into round 6. Cgheck out antsports for who will be available into the late 5th round.
This is the point I am trying to make. It is much easier to land a top 20 WR late in the draft than it is to land a top 20 RB. You need to traget the RBs early and often. Also note that none of this takes trading into account. Trading playes a big role in a RB heavy draft. Not only do you have solid players to play on your bye weeks, but those players on your bench are not scoring points for your opponent.
 
There is far greater spacing in RB scoring than in WR scoring. For example,Holmes was the #1 RB and Portis the #5 RB, but Holmes outscored Portis by 98 points.CJohnson was the #3 WR. Anyone care to guess how many WR there were that were within 98 points of Johnson? Try 36. (98 points separated Johnson from the #39 WR, Bobby Shaw).Marc's theory of grabbing a top guy or waiting for someone late in the middle of the pack is highly advisable.

 
Will do - not this week or next. Too much keeping me busy to mock draft this week, but imagine the bottom flop, and imagine the draft goes exactly in the order of the average overall rankings, and tell me what you come up with.
Fair enough, I will mock it myself and give you the benefit of the doubt for the picks.Ill give you:
Code:
1.10 Taylor, Fred2.3 Harrison, Marvin3.10 Westbrook, Brian4.3 Moulds, Eric5.10 Robinson, Koren
Ill take:
Code:
1.11 James, Edgerrin2.2 Faulk, Marshall (or Barlow)3.11 Staley, Duce (or Bennett)4.2 Mason, Derrick5.11 Johnson, Andre
Starting lineups of:TaylorWestbrookHarrisonMouldsRobinsonvsJamesFaulk (or Barlow)Staley (or Bennett)MasonJohnsonWhich would you rather have?JAA
 

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