Serpentine Style Draft (1 Viewer)

[ImTheScientist]

What does your draft do? Ever tried something like this?

Some voiced a concern that the top picks have an advantage every year, and I would say they do stand a slightly better chance IMO. The bottom line is you still have to be able to draft a good team after that #1 pick. Where I do feel they have the biggest advantage is at the 2nd round-3rd round turn. First I will tell you why they have an advantage and then I will give you one solution to that problem which I found in a recently published FF magazine.

Advantage to having the top few selections:

We will compare two teams, Team A (the #1 overall pick) and Team B (the #12 overall pick). The goal of every draft should be to get as many players in the Top 50 as possible. In our 12 team league Team A not only gets the #1 overall stud best player, they also get to choose two players in the top 25. This gives them ideally players ranked #1, #24, and #25 in the first three rounds. Team B drafting #12 overall gets the #12, #13, and #36 in the first 3 rounds. IMO this puts Team B at a disadvantage. Team B must rely on a core (Top three picks) that is not as strong as Team A and they have to draft well in the later rounds or they do not stand a chance. I have picked in the later area's of round #1 for three or four years now and I can speak from experience why I say it is a lot harder to draft out of those slots.

The following is a ADP (average draft position) list for this year.

1 RB1 Ladainian Tomlinson, SD

2 RB2 Steven Jackson, StL

3 RB3 Larry Johnson, KC

4 RB4 Frank Gore, SF

5 RB5 Shaun Alexander, Sea

6 RB6 Joseph Addai, Ind

7 RB7 Brian Westbrook, Phi

8 RB8 Willie Parker, Pit

9 RB9 Laurence Maroney, NE

10 RB10 Rudi Johnson, Cin

11 RB11 Reggie Bush, NO

12 QB1 Peyton Manning, Ind

13 RB12 Clinton Portis, Was

14 RB13 Willis McGahee, Bal

15 WR1 Chad Johnson, Cin

16 RB14 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

17 RB15 Travis Henry, Den

18 WR2 Steve Smith, Car

19 RB16 Ronnie Brown, Mia

20 RB17 Cedric Benson, Chi

21 WR3 Torry Holt, StL

22 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari

23 RB18 Edgerrin James, Ari

24 WR5 Reggie Wayne, Ind

25 WR6 Marvin Harrison, Ind

26 RB19 Thomas Jones, NYJ

27 WR7 Terrell Owens, Dal

28 WR8 Roy Williams, Det

29 RB20 Marshawn Lynch, Buf

30 TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

31 RB21 Carnell Williams, TB

32 RB22 Deuce McAllister, NO

33 RB23 DeAngelo Williams, Car

34 QB2 Carson Palmer, Cin

35 WR9 Anquan Boldin, Ari

36 WR10 Andre Johnson, Hou

37 RB24 Brandon Jacobs, NYG

38 WR11 Marques Colston, NO

39 QB3 Tom Brady, NE

40 RB25 Marion Barber, Dal

41 QB4 Drew Brees, NO

42 WR12 Randy Moss, NE

43 WR13 Javon Walker, Den

44 RB26 Adrian Peterson, Min

45 WR14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin

46 WR15 Donald Driver, GB

47 WR16 Lee Evans, Buf

48 RB27 Jamal Lewis, Cle

49 WR17 Plaxico Burress, NYG

50 RB28 Kevin Jones, Det

51 QB5 Marc Bulger, StL

52 WR18 Hines Ward, Pit

According to this list Team A (If we were just picking from this list) would have LT, Reggie Wayne, and Marvin Harrison and Team B would get Peyton Manning, Clinton Portis, and Andre Johnson. Team A has the stronger core of his team, and will have a better chance at making a playoff run. If we extend the draft out to the first 5 rounds. Team A gets, #1, #24, #25, # 48 and #49 (5 players in the top 50 and the #1 player overral) Team B gets #12, #13, #36, #37, #60 (only 4 players ranked in the top 50) THAT SUCKS!!

I think we would all agree we would not like the #12 pick because your team is not as solid.

How can we fix this??

The article I read suggested the first three rounds go as follows:

Round 1: 1-12

Round 2: 12-1

Round 3: 12-1

Round 4: 1-12 (Snake the rest of the way)

If this were the case Team A gets pick #1, #24, #36, #37, #60 and Team B gets #12, #13, #25, #48, #49. Yes I do see that Team B gets three in the Top 25 and Team A gets 2, but the player Team A gets at #1 overall is a true stud, and will more than likely finish Top 3 overall where the players selected at #12 and #13 will more than likely only have one finish top 10.

If this was the case Team A would look like: LT, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Team B would have Manning, Portis, Harrison. I know these are not the players you would necessarily choose at those slots but this is just to give you and example.

 

[cowpie]

What does your draft do? Ever tried something like this?

Some voiced a concern that the top picks have an advantage every year, and I would say they do stand a slightly better chance IMO. The bottom line is you still have to be able to draft a good team after that #1 pick. Where I do feel they have the biggest advantage is at the 2nd round-3rd round turn. First I will tell you why they have an advantage and then I will give you one solution to that problem which I found in a recently published FF magazine.

Advantage to having the top few selections:

We will compare two teams, Team A (the #1 overall pick) and Team B (the #12 overall pick). The goal of every draft should be to get as many players in the Top 50 as possible. In our 12 team league Team A not only gets the #1 overall stud best player, they also get to choose two players in the top 25. This gives them ideally players ranked #1, #24, and #25 in the first three rounds. Team B drafting #12 overall gets the #12, #13, and #36 in the first 3 rounds. IMO this puts Team B at a disadvantage. Team B must rely on a core (Top three picks) that is not as strong as Team A and they have to draft well in the later rounds or they do not stand a chance. I have picked in the later area's of round #1 for three or four years now and I can speak from experience why I say it is a lot harder to draft out of those slots.

The following is a ADP (average draft position) list for this year.

1 RB1 Ladainian Tomlinson, SD

2 RB2 Steven Jackson, StL

3 RB3 Larry Johnson, KC

4 RB4 Frank Gore, SF

5 RB5 Shaun Alexander, Sea

6 RB6 Joseph Addai, Ind

7 RB7 Brian Westbrook, Phi

8 RB8 Willie Parker, Pit

9 RB9 Laurence Maroney, NE

10 RB10 Rudi Johnson, Cin

11 RB11 Reggie Bush, NO

12 QB1 Peyton Manning, Ind

13 RB12 Clinton Portis, Was

14 RB13 Willis McGahee, Bal

15 WR1 Chad Johnson, Cin

16 RB14 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

17 RB15 Travis Henry, Den

18 WR2 Steve Smith, Car

19 RB16 Ronnie Brown, Mia

20 RB17 Cedric Benson, Chi

21 WR3 Torry Holt, StL

22 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari

23 RB18 Edgerrin James, Ari

24 WR5 Reggie Wayne, Ind

25 WR6 Marvin Harrison, Ind

26 RB19 Thomas Jones, NYJ

27 WR7 Terrell Owens, Dal

28 WR8 Roy Williams, Det

29 RB20 Marshawn Lynch, Buf

30 TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

31 RB21 Carnell Williams, TB

32 RB22 Deuce McAllister, NO

33 RB23 DeAngelo Williams, Car

34 QB2 Carson Palmer, Cin

35 WR9 Anquan Boldin, Ari

36 WR10 Andre Johnson, Hou

37 RB24 Brandon Jacobs, NYG

38 WR11 Marques Colston, NO

39 QB3 Tom Brady, NE

40 RB25 Marion Barber, Dal

41 QB4 Drew Brees, NO

42 WR12 Randy Moss, NE

43 WR13 Javon Walker, Den

44 RB26 Adrian Peterson, Min

45 WR14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin

46 WR15 Donald Driver, GB

47 WR16 Lee Evans, Buf

48 RB27 Jamal Lewis, Cle

49 WR17 Plaxico Burress, NYG

50 RB28 Kevin Jones, Det

51 QB5 Marc Bulger, StL

52 WR18 Hines Ward, Pit

According to this list Team A (If we were just picking from this list) would have LT, Reggie Wayne, and Marvin Harrison and Team B would get Peyton Manning, Clinton Portis, and Andre Johnson. Team A has the stronger core of his team, and will have a better chance at making a playoff run. If we extend the draft out to the first 5 rounds. Team A gets, #1, #24, #25, # 48 and #49 (5 players in the top 50 and the #1 player overral) Team B gets #12, #13, #36, #37, #60 (only 4 players ranked in the top 50) THAT SUCKS!!

I think we would all agree we would not like the #12 pick because your team is not as solid.

How can we fix this??

The article I read suggested the first three rounds go as follows:

Round 1: 1-12

Round 2: 12-1

Round 3: 12-1

Round 4: 1-12 (Snake the rest of the way)

If this were the case Team A gets pick #1, #24, #36, #37, #60 and Team B gets #12, #13, #25, #48, #49. Yes I do see that Team B gets three in the Top 25 and Team A gets 2, but the player Team A gets at #1 overall is a true stud, and will more than likely finish Top 3 overall where the players selected at #12 and #13 will more than likely only have one finish top 10.

If this was the case Team A would look like: LT, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Team B would have Manning, Portis, Harrison. I know these are not the players you would necessarily choose at those slots but this is just to give you and example.

good luck passing that on in your league. , it completely depends on the year. you also have to look at the fact that you have so much more riding on your #1 and you season is over iif he gets hurt or if he has a bad year. your job at the draft is to prepair and draft for your position. they all have plusses and minuses,

i am usually in 4 leagues, in one i am a record keeper and article writer and i have all types of stats to make the league fun and interesting. i actually did one last year that mentioned where the top teams drafted each year and to see who had the advantage because this topic came up. I also do an article on how good the owners are and grade the vs the rest of the group and update it year over year. there are 4 guys (myself included) that are in the playoffs 5 out of 6 years and one has been in every year in a 12 team league. what i have found is that the top 4 owners (redraft) make the playoffs no matter where they draft and the worst 4 seem to botch it up and have only made the playoffs once or twice. i am not saying some spots are or arent' better, but i think it depends on the year, the depth and acutally like the 8th 9th and 10 spots this year the best at least at early review. I think 1, 2, 3, are high risk high reward this year and i am not sold on the palyers 20-32 all that much for where they are going.

anyways, here are the last 5 years of stats from my highly competitive 12 team league.

Runner up's draft position for last 5 years - 9, 12, 9, 5, 1

Champ's " " - 1, 6, 8, 7, 11

this shows that you can win in any position. no one is favored.

 

[FTRWRTR]

I've commished a redraft league that uses a serpentine draft for what will be six years this upcoming season and I've seen ppl win who had early picks, ppl win who picked at the end of the first, and ppl who picked from the middle. Yeah, if you pick early you'll get a stud like LT but then you have to wait until 2:12 to get your next rb and the ppl in my league love their rbs so that's far from an easy drop to take. Bottom line is there is no draft slot where you're guranteed to win, you still have to know how to draft then you still have to know how to work the ww and make trades

 

[BigRed]

What does your draft do? Ever tried something like this?Some voiced a concern that the top picks have an advantage every year, and I would say they do stand a slightly better chance IMO.

I would disagree.But you're right; this style is out of date IMO. Auction is the way to go...

 

[Cool in the pocket]

What does your draft do? Ever tried something like this?

Some voiced a concern that the top picks have an advantage every year, and I would say they do stand a slightly better chance IMO. The bottom line is you still have to be able to draft a good team after that #1 pick. Where I do feel they have the biggest advantage is at the 2nd round-3rd round turn. First I will tell you why they have an advantage and then I will give you one solution to that problem which I found in a recently published FF magazine.

Advantage to having the top few selections:

We will compare two teams, Team A (the #1 overall pick) and Team B (the #12 overall pick). The goal of every draft should be to get as many players in the Top 50 as possible. In our 12 team league Team A not only gets the #1 overall stud best player, they also get to choose two players in the top 25. This gives them ideally players ranked #1, #24, and #25 in the first three rounds. Team B drafting #12 overall gets the #12, #13, and #36 in the first 3 rounds. IMO this puts Team B at a disadvantage. Team B must rely on a core (Top three picks) that is not as strong as Team A and they have to draft well in the later rounds or they do not stand a chance. I have picked in the later area's of round #1 for three or four years now and I can speak from experience why I say it is a lot harder to draft out of those slots.

The following is a ADP (average draft position) list for this year.

1 RB1 Ladainian Tomlinson, SD

2 RB2 Steven Jackson, StL

3 RB3 Larry Johnson, KC

4 RB4 Frank Gore, SF

5 RB5 Shaun Alexander, Sea

6 RB6 Joseph Addai, Ind

7 RB7 Brian Westbrook, Phi

8 RB8 Willie Parker, Pit

9 RB9 Laurence Maroney, NE

10 RB10 Rudi Johnson, Cin

11 RB11 Reggie Bush, NO

12 QB1 Peyton Manning, Ind

13 RB12 Clinton Portis, Was

14 RB13 Willis McGahee, Bal

15 WR1 Chad Johnson, Cin

16 RB14 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac

17 RB15 Travis Henry, Den

18 WR2 Steve Smith, Car

19 RB16 Ronnie Brown, Mia

20 RB17 Cedric Benson, Chi

21 WR3 Torry Holt, StL

22 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari

23 RB18 Edgerrin James, Ari

24 WR5 Reggie Wayne, Ind

25 WR6 Marvin Harrison, Ind

26 RB19 Thomas Jones, NYJ

27 WR7 Terrell Owens, Dal

28 WR8 Roy Williams, Det

29 RB20 Marshawn Lynch, Buf

30 TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

31 RB21 Carnell Williams, TB

32 RB22 Deuce McAllister, NO

33 RB23 DeAngelo Williams, Car

34 QB2 Carson Palmer, Cin

35 WR9 Anquan Boldin, Ari

36 WR10 Andre Johnson, Hou

37 RB24 Brandon Jacobs, NYG

38 WR11 Marques Colston, NO

39 QB3 Tom Brady, NE

40 RB25 Marion Barber, Dal

41 QB4 Drew Brees, NO

42 WR12 Randy Moss, NE

43 WR13 Javon Walker, Den

44 RB26 Adrian Peterson, Min

45 WR14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin

46 WR15 Donald Driver, GB

47 WR16 Lee Evans, Buf

48 RB27 Jamal Lewis, Cle

49 WR17 Plaxico Burress, NYG

50 RB28 Kevin Jones, Det

51 QB5 Marc Bulger, StL

52 WR18 Hines Ward, Pit

According to this list Team A (If we were just picking from this list) would have LT, Reggie Wayne, and Marvin Harrison and Team B would get Peyton Manning, Clinton Portis, and Andre Johnson. Team A has the stronger core of his team, and will have a better chance at making a playoff run. If we extend the draft out to the first 5 rounds. Team A gets, #1, #24, #25, # 48 and #49 (5 players in the top 50 and the #1 player overral) Team B gets #12, #13, #36, #37, #60 (only 4 players ranked in the top 50) THAT SUCKS!!

I think we would all agree we would not like the #12 pick because your team is not as solid.

How can we fix this??

The article I read suggested the first three rounds go as follows:

Round 1: 1-12

Round 2: 12-1

Round 3: 12-1

Round 4: 1-12 (Snake the rest of the way)

If this were the case Team A gets pick #1, #24, #36, #37, #60 and Team B gets #12, #13, #25, #48, #49. Yes I do see that Team B gets three in the Top 25 and Team A gets 2, but the player Team A gets at #1 overall is a true stud, and will more than likely finish Top 3 overall where the players selected at #12 and #13 will more than likely only have one finish top 10.

If this was the case Team A would look like: LT, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Team B would have Manning, Portis, Harrison. I know these are not the players you would necessarily choose at those slots but this is just to give you and example.

What if people don't pick the guy ADP suggests they should? If everyone has perfect information and follows ADP, this makes sense, but does it ever happen? Otherwise, value is created and ready to be exploited by others.

 

[cstu]

IMO, reverse serpentine (flipping order every two rounds) is the best solution. It's not perfect, but regular serpentine drafts gives too much advantage to the teams with the top picks.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

What you suggested is a minimal fix.

To make it fair...

1-12

12-1

12-1

12-1

1-12

snake.

Banzai Method. Just reverse the 3rd round. Leave everything else the same.

If you dont think there is a early pick dominance in leagues, simply look at WCOFF finishes over the years. Its rather obvious.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=5391945

For 12 team leagues. Based on a VBD (value based drafting system). Through 12 rounds.

Using the end picks of 2 and 11 to determine points. Qb, Rb, Wr, Te, K only.

1) Standard serpentine draft for twelve rounds

Pick #2 is 5.1% higher then pick #11. (303 points)

2) Standard serpentine draft for 6 rounds, then #12 team goes first in each of the remaining 6 rounds.

Pick #2 is 3.8% higher then pick #11. (228 points)

3) Serpentine for 2 rounds. (1-12, 12-1). Then reverse next two rounds (12-1, 1-12). Repeat.

Pick #2 is 2.8% higher then pick #11. (167 points)

4) Serpentine first two rounds. (1-12, 12-1). Then reverse serp remaining, (12,1,12,1,12,1...)

Pick #2 is 2.0% higher then pick #11. (121 points)

And now for the BANZAI method.

5) Standard Serpentine draft. Except reverse the 3rd round. Everything else normal.

Pick #2 is 0.02% higher then pick #11. (1 point)

Thanks to whoisjohngalt for the number crunching.

 

[Captain Hook]

3RR - or Third Round Reversal which is the orignal poster's question will be the draft order for the NFFC (bright banner above right) this year.

As another poster suggested, auction drafts are really the best because everyone has control of their own fortunes. Now I know many leagues who don't want to take the extra time to do a full auction draft, so here is a compromise used by a couple of leagues that I used to play in before I moved.

Each team has $100 to bid for their first four players.

(Means max they could bid on any one player would be $97 - so they have $1 each for their other three players) If there is a tie (could probably only happen on LT early, you would have to flip a coin)

After each team has their four auctioned players, the draft goes back to a serpentine draft (positions decided in advance by any of a number of methods)

This is also a good transition for leagues used to a straight draft who don't feel entirely comfortable moving to a complete auction without a trial.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

3RR - or Third Round Reversal which is the orignal poster's question will be the draft order for the NFFC (bright banner above right) this year.

As another poster suggested, auction drafts are really the best because everyone has control of their own fortunes. Now I know many leagues who don't want to take the extra time to do a full auction draft, so here is a compromise used by a couple of leagues that I used to play in before I moved.

Each team has $100 to bid for their first four players.

(Means max they could bid on any one player would be $97 - so they have $1 each for their other three players) If there is a tie (could probably only happen on LT early, you would have to flip a coin)

After each team has their four auctioned players, the draft goes back to a serpentine draft (positions decided in advance by any of a number of methods)

This is also a good transition for leagues used to a straight draft who don't feel entirely comfortable moving to a complete auction without a trial.

Nice to see a drafting originization taking up the Banzai Method in 2007. Actually the rules state they will just use method #4 from above. Not a true "3RR" or "Banzai Method". Even though they used the term.

Its actually a "reverse serpentine" (3RS) begining in the 3rd round.

All NFFC draft leagues will use 3RR (3rd Round Reversal) in 2007, meaning that the draft order will go back down to 14 to start Round 3 and then continue in serpentine fashion after that.

Much better, but still not fair. You will still have a definite advantage drafting early.

Still... it's way better then out of touch WCOFF.

 

[roadkill1292]

3RR - or Third Round Reversal which is the orignal poster's question will be the draft order for the NFFC (bright banner above right) this year.As another poster suggested, auction drafts are really the best because everyone has control of their own fortunes. Now I know many leagues who don't want to take the extra time to do a full auction draft, so here is a compromise used by a couple of leagues that I used to play in before I moved.Each team has $100 to bid for their first four players.(Means max they could bid on any one player would be $97 - so they have $1 each for their other three players) If there is a tie (could probably only happen on LT early, you would have to flip a coin)After each team has their four auctioned players, the draft goes back to a serpentine draft (positions decided in advance by any of a number of methods)This is also a good transition for leagues used to a straight draft who don't feel entirely comfortable moving to a complete auction without a trial.

I know a league that does an 8 and 8 hybrid. It seems to work for them. But I remain one of BigRed's auction cronies; to me, this is just a step on the path to a full blown auction, the way the game was meant to be played.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

 

[Happy]

What does your draft do? Ever tried something like this?Some voiced a concern that the top picks have an advantage every year, and I would say they do stand a slightly better chance IMO.

I would disagree.But you're right; this style is out of date IMO. Auction is the way to go...

I totally agree, it's out of dateAuction == GOODSerpentine == BADWith an Auction draft, ever single person has ability to choose whoever they want (with their budget of course), so there's never anyone at the draft that can feel like it was unfair because they didn't get the #1 pick (LT in this case). In an Auction format, if you want LT, just fork over the $$

 

[Wheezer34]

You lost me when you started looking at an anlysis of teams looking at only the first 3 or 5 rounds (an ODD amount of rounds). If this is the case, why not just anylze Round 1? Fair analysis? Definately not.

IMO, to properly analyze a serpentine draft you need to look at an EVEN amount of early rounds.

Looking at Draft Position 1 and 12 only, does this look like a fair way to anlyze?

Team 1 - #1, #24, #25

Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36

or is this a better analysis?

Team 1 - #1, #24, #25, #48

Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36, #37

Just my

 

[TheLastDispatch]

You lost me when you started looking at an anlysis of teams looking at only the first 3 or 5 rounds (an ODD amount of rounds). If this is the case, why not just anylze Round 1? Fair analysis? Definately not.IMO, to properly analyze a serpentine draft you need to look at an EVEN amount of early rounds. Looking at Draft Position 1 and 12 only, does this look like a fair way to anlyze?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36or is this a better analysis?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25, #48Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36, #37 Just my

Good point Wheezer.

 

[renesauz]

What I've seen is that in a regular neighborhood beer league, it doesn't matter. The more serious and educated owners rise to the top no matter what, regardless of draft position.

IN more competitive leagues where all of the owners are "sharks" armed with research and knowledge, the higher draft picks have a very real advantage which is statiscally proven with the WCOFF stats. BUT>>..the best owners STILL remain competitive regardless of draft position.

IN big money leagues, I like the altered draft order. In local beer leagues, I couldn't care less.

 

[radballs]

You lost me when you started looking at an anlysis of teams looking at only the first 3 or 5 rounds (an ODD amount of rounds). If this is the case, why not just anylze Round 1? Fair analysis? Definately not.IMO, to properly analyze a serpentine draft you need to look at an EVEN amount of early rounds. Looking at Draft Position 1 and 12 only, does this look like a fair way to anlyze?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36or is this a better analysis?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25, #48Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36, #37 Just my

Exactly, I wasn't even getting the point using only through odd rounds. There still is an advantage but stacking the odds in your favor in that way to make your point doesn't make any sense either.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

You lost me when you started looking at an anlysis of teams looking at only the first 3 or 5 rounds (an ODD amount of rounds). If this is the case, why not just anylze Round 1? Fair analysis? Definately not.IMO, to properly analyze a serpentine draft you need to look at an EVEN amount of early rounds. Looking at Draft Position 1 and 12 only, does this look like a fair way to anlyze?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36or is this a better analysis?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25, #48Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36, #37 Just my

Exactly, I wasn't even getting the point using only through odd rounds. There still is an advantage but stacking the odds in your favor in that way to make your point doesn't make any sense either.

Take it through an even round and through round 12 and it persists.Its round 1 and the difference between these selections that makes all the difference.

 

[radballs]

You lost me when you started looking at an anlysis of teams looking at only the first 3 or 5 rounds (an ODD amount of rounds). If this is the case, why not just anylze Round 1? Fair analysis? Definately not.IMO, to properly analyze a serpentine draft you need to look at an EVEN amount of early rounds. Looking at Draft Position 1 and 12 only, does this look like a fair way to anlyze?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36or is this a better analysis?Team 1 - #1, #24, #25, #48Team 2 - #12, #13, # 36, #37 Just my

Exactly, I wasn't even getting the point using only through odd rounds. There still is an advantage but stacking the odds in your favor in that way to make your point doesn't make any sense either.

Take it through an even round and through round 12 and it persists.Its round 1 and the difference between these selections that makes all the difference.

I'm not diagreeing with you at all. My only point was that you should only be comparing partial teams after they all have drafted the same number of players from an even number of rounds. The early drafters still have a slight advantage.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

If you're on this site this time of the year, you are probably a shark in your league. Some people just take FF more seriosuly than others. I visit my MFL keeper site about once a day right now, and 7 of the 12 owners haven't even been to the site since the season ended last year. Those 7 no-shows make up 6 of the first 7 picks in our draft. Creating the most even draft you can only counts when the owners are all active.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

If you're on this site this time of the year, you are probably a shark in your league. Some people just take FF more seriosuly than others. I visit my MFL keeper site about once a day right now, and 7 of the 12 owners haven't even been to the site since the season ended last year. Those 7 no-shows make up 6 of the first 7 picks in our draft. Creating the most even draft you can only counts when the owners are all active.

But besides all the possible variables you want to throw out there... why not have the initial placement as fair as possible. And then let variables do whatever it is they want to do. Personally, I find it unacceptable that Dirty Weasels shark-status is trumped by some slouch who simply got a top pick. And furthermore, its even worse when its a league full of tough-solid competition, yet the Faulks and Emmits of the world routinely trump any owner "ability" and totalty tilt an otherwise even playing field.

 

[belljr]

I would love to convert my league into an Auction league. This is our 14th or 15h year of us going. The same base 8 guys have been in it from the beginning. Over the years we expanded to 12 and had to fill for a couple guys but I'd say the majority have been in it 10+. I think it would be tough to convince them.

But we may be way outdated or dumb but we've done a straight 1-12 draft every year and we are only allowed 1 franchise player.

 

[I'm Rick James]

I think it varies from year to year. There were times where Marshall Faulk and Edge used to be locks. Injuries, age or team additions/losss keeps things chaging.

I've been in a twelve man league for over 10 years and the two times I won the championship were from the 11 and 12 spot.

As to the poster about Auctions, that is truly the best way to go. In the league above, we did Auction for a few years and loved it. But because our league members are all over the country and many with kids, we couldn't meet up for the draft anymore. So, last year we just went back to redraft.

 

[kbleck]

Well, What we do is

2 keepers,

Rounds 1,2,3 we do

1-12

1-12

1-12

Rounds 4-14 we do a S Draft.

 

[cowpie]

IMO, reverse serpentine (flipping order every two rounds) is the best solution. It's not perfect, but regular serpentine drafts gives too much advantage to the teams with the top picks.

then the advantage goes to the 12th team. no matter how you serpentine it, there will be someone with an advantage. and as i stated above, my league/s have no history of #1 winning all the time.

 

[cowpie]

What I've seen is that in a regular neighborhood beer league, it doesn't matter. The more serious and educated owners rise to the top no matter what, regardless of draft position. IN more competitive leagues where all of the owners are "sharks" armed with research and knowledge, the higher draft picks have a very real advantage which is statiscally proven with the WCOFF stats. BUT>>..the best owners STILL remain competitive regardless of draft position.IN big money leagues, I like the altered draft order. In local beer leagues, I couldn't care less.

well put, the top players always rise to the top. but picking #1,or #2 has so much more risk. it is an all or nothing.more number ones in the last several year have been hurt and ruined a season than notTerrell davisedgerin jamesmarshall faulkpriest holmesshawn alexanderthis killed so many teamshowever, if you 12th pick gets hurt, a lot of times youare still in the runnings. maybe not a top team, but defiantely a playoff team. honestly, i like the lower half of the draft this year. around #8. it changes every year. but i think #8 represents the best value and potential.

 

[Captain Hook]

I would love to convert my league into an Auction league. This is our 14th or 15h year of us going. The same base 8 guys have been in it from the beginning. Over the years we expanded to 12 and had to fill for a couple guys but I'd say the majority have been in it 10+. I think it would be tough to convince them.But we may be way outdated or dumb but we've done a straight 1-12 draft every year and we are only allowed 1 franchise player.

I don't think your league is either outdated or dumb - as a keeper league, even with only one franchise player, you have taken the inequity out of first round draft positions. Presumably you use (or should consider) draft positions based on the previous year so those teams out of the playoffs have better draft positions this year with the SB winner having the 12th pick.This method is really for redraft leagues.

 

[scothawk]

Can you draft luck?

Whilst to a certain degree everybody makes their own luck in life (in fantasy ball you can influence the odds, thats all), nobody ever won anything without certain intagibles falling into a nice line.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Can you draft luck?

Whilst to a certain degree everybody makes their own luck in life (in fantasy ball you can influence the odds, thats all), nobody ever won anything without certain intagibles falling into a nice line.

39 of the top 52 league winners drafted in the top 4 last of their leagues last year in WCOFF.

It the same every year. Thats 75%. Even though its only 33% of the teams.

And of the top 6 overall scoring teams... every single one was in the top 4.

Thats not luck or drafting ability. Again, the field should be as even as possible before the variables are applied, like "luck".

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

Interesting thread. I'm in the 4th year of a 12 team keeper league. I've always picked somewhere between the 9th and 12th spot and have yet to make a playoff appearrance.

 

[lborges]

I checked the last 5 year standings in our 10 man league that still uses the serpentine draft. I consider that all of the players are sharks and they are all in multiple high money leagues. Teams that have drafted first or second have finished in the top 4 only once.

In top 4

1st pick .. 0

2nd pick.. 1

3rd pick.. 4

4th pick.. 4

5th pick.. 0

6th pick.. 2

7th pick.. 2

8th pick.. 2

9th pick.. 3

10h pick.. 2

 

[belljr]

I would love to convert my league into an Auction league. This is our 14th or 15h year of us going. The same base 8 guys have been in it from the beginning. Over the years we expanded to 12 and had to fill for a couple guys but I'd say the majority have been in it 10+. I think it would be tough to convince them.But we may be way outdated or dumb but we've done a straight 1-12 draft every year and we are only allowed 1 franchise player.

I don't think your league is either outdated or dumb - as a keeper league, even with only one franchise player, you have taken the inequity out of first round draft positions. Presumably you use (or should consider) draft positions based on the previous year so those teams out of the playoffs have better draft positions this year with the SB winner having the 12th pick.This method is really for redraft leagues.

yes it's absolutely based on prior year finish. It's so rewarding winning back to back

 

[Family Matters]

IMO it doesn't matter what you do to handicap the league. In reality this discussion is handicapping to try make it fair for all. But that's an impossible objective. You can win a league from any draft position. I and others have been doing this for years. There will always be diversity in level of expertise. That's why you can't level the field. This reminds me of the waivers process that penalizes successful teams do that the bad owners get first shot at this week's hot player(s). I realize these aren't the same thing but the intentions are similar. Instead of finding ways to get over on the better players why not just step up to the challenge. And although I'm not an auction player, I can appreciate it's merits because no one is penalized as a matter of process. Kind of like blind bid waivers. Everyone is given the exact same chances.....until you actually play.

 

[benbadman]

there was a post about this a week ago or so

 

[BigSteelThrill]

In reality this discussion is handicapping to try make it fair for all. But that's an impossible objective. You can win a league from any draft position.

Instead of finding ways to get over on the better players why not just step up to the challenge.

Yes, that must be it. After 22 years and hundreds of leagues.... the problem is a lack of bravado and unwillingness to "step up to the challenge". And it is not impossible. Or did you miss the Banzai method showing 1 point difference between teams #2 and #11 after 12 rounds.

Noone will have a noticeable advantage and all you must do is reverse 1 single round - the 3rd. Thats it. Game on.

Sounds more like an issue of stubborness, ignorance or blindess.

 

[Family Matters]

In reality this discussion is handicapping to try make it fair for all. But that's an impossible objective. You can win a league from any draft position.

Instead of finding ways to get over on the better players why not just step up to the challenge.

Yes, that must be it. After 22 years and hundreds of leagues.... the problem is a lack of bravado and unwillingness to "step up to the challenge". And it is not impossible. Or did you miss the Banzai method showing 1 point difference between teams #2 and #11 after 12 rounds.

Noone will have a noticeable advantage and all you must do is reverse 1 single round - the 3rd. Thats it. Game on.

Sounds more like an issue of stubborness, ignorance or blindess.

A little testy are we? I could really care less how a league drafts. I would have a problem with drafting this way. I just don't see it as a problem (or excuse) as some do. We're all on a level field so I'm good. My point on this is that there is no perfect scenario. We all draft differently and few draft the line on VBD. What we project on average and what happens after the drafts rarely look the same. That's why we play the game. The guy drafting first only gets an advantage if he gets his other picks right. You have to remember that you field 10 or more players that total your score. Rarely does the guy picking first win the draft. In leagues I've been in the winners come from all different positions including last. By trying to manipulate the outcome of the draft by making this type change will not yield results much differently. The best players will likely come out on top as before. Better players equal better outcomes. It's pretty simple really. Unless of course it's like you said, ignorance. You may be right.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

In reality this discussion is handicapping to try make it fair for all. But that's an impossible objective. You can win a league from any draft position.

Instead of finding ways to get over on the better players why not just step up to the challenge.

Yes, that must be it. After 22 years and hundreds of leagues.... the problem is a lack of bravado and unwillingness to "step up to the challenge". And it is not impossible. Or did you miss the Banzai method showing 1 point difference between teams #2 and #11 after 12 rounds.

Noone will have a noticeable advantage and all you must do is reverse 1 single round - the 3rd. Thats it. Game on.

Sounds more like an issue of stubborness, ignorance or blindess.

A little testy are we? I could really care less how a league drafts. I would have a problem with drafting this way. I just don't see it as a problem (or excuse) as some do. We're all on a level field so I'm good. My point on this is that there is no perfect scenario. We all draft differently and few draft the line on VBD. What we project on average and what happens after the drafts rarely look the same. That's why we play the game. The guy drafting first only gets an advantage if he gets his other picks right. You have to remember that you field 10 or more players that total your score. Rarely does the guy picking first win the draft. In leagues I've been in the winners come from all different positions including last. By trying to manipulate the outcome of the draft by making this type change will not yield results much differently. The best players will likely come out on top as before. Better players equal better outcomes. It's pretty simple really. Unless of course it's like you said, ignorance. You may be right.

Certainly those are variables AFTER you start drafting. But its uneven BEFORE you even start.Why not have it even before you start and then let the variables do as they will.

Again, look at wcoff... 75% of the winners come from the top 33% of the drafters. Its not about ADP...

Its about the massive advantage gained by drafting in the top of round 1. Nothing more. You do at least understand this though, yes?

Thats not variables. Thats not fair. One simple switch and the winners will come from everywhere in the draft order... and the better owners (or at least those who make their own positive variables) will win out. 1 simple and tiny switch. Would you like NCCF results? Why do you think they made a switch?