Shaub and Burner Turner (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

Both have their rookie contracts expiring.

Both can expect to get tendered at the highest possible number.

Both can be expected to sign those deals, play out the deal, and be a UFA next year.

Is this the offseason that the Falcons and Chargers have to trade them, in order to get value for a player they can't keep long term?

If you are a Falcon or Charger fan, are you angry if the FO doesn't secure a deal? Or is it worth it to have that insurance for your studs for one more year?

 

[Z-Dog]

Both have their rookie contracts expiring.Both can expect to get tendered at the highest possible number.Both can be expected to sign those deals, play out the deal, and be a UFA next year.Is this the offseason that the Falcons and Chargers have to trade them, in order to get value for a player they can't keep long term? If you are a Falcon or Charger fan, are you angry if the FO doesn't secure a deal? Or is it worth it to have that insurance for your studs for one more year?

I think that both teams are correct in demanding a 1st-rounder at minimum for these players. I think the Falcons would be foolish to deal Schaub, b/c Vick is always an injury risk. I think that the Chargers would be more likely to deal Turner rather than just get the benefit of one more year of him, but I wouldn't be unhappy with the team for deciding to keep him instead. It's not like draft picks are guaranteed to pan out, and having insurance at RB is the responsible thing to do if you're trying to win a Superbowl.

 

[Challenge Everything]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

 

[Da Guru]

I would be shocked if Atlanta trades Schaub.

 

[Isotopes]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

I think the hype extends beyond the fantasy football world. What I mean is, if the Falcons and Chargers decided to deal these guys, there would be a ton of interest from numerous teams.

 

[massraider]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

Do these players have no value? If they were free agents, do you think they could get a contract?This isn't some fantasy football wet dream. These are two players that will not be able to be kept by their original team, and will garner interest as starters around the league. If the Chargers and Falcons could get a 2nd rounder, or more, for these guys, exploring a trade this offseason seems like a bright idea.Maybe they aren't fools, but if they let them walk next year for nothing, are they smart?

 

[Banger]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

Do these players have no value? If they were free agents, do you think they could get a contract?This isn't some fantasy football wet dream. These are two players that will not be able to be kept by their original team, and will garner interest as starters around the league. If the Chargers and Falcons could get a 2nd rounder, or more, for these guys, exploring a trade this offseason seems like a bright idea.Maybe they aren't fools, but if they let them walk next year for nothing, are they smart?

With respect to Turner...if the Chargers can't get anything more than a 2nd I believe Turner stays a Charger. They will probably get a 3rd round compensatory pick when he leaves via FA the following year so if you were a GM with a team as stacked as the Chargers would you rather essentially move up a round this year (difference between the 2nd rounder this year versus the 3rd rounder next year) or have a stud backup for one of the best teams in the NFL at a reasonable price. I think AJ chooses door #2 especially with the value he's gotten in the draft at various spots (Turner for example was selected mid 5th round). If they can get a 2nd and player or a 1st I think Turner is moved. It's certainly not unprecendented that they would do this considering they let Brees "walk" last year.

 

[Frank Black]

For SD, I think it depends on what happens with the playoffs. Best case scenario for SD, they win the Superbowl. If that happens, the pressure for next season is off enough for them to deal Turner. If they make the AFC Championship game, I think they should hang on to him for another year.

 

[massraider]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

Do these players have no value? If they were free agents, do you think they could get a contract?This isn't some fantasy football wet dream. These are two players that will not be able to be kept by their original team, and will garner interest as starters around the league. If the Chargers and Falcons could get a 2nd rounder, or more, for these guys, exploring a trade this offseason seems like a bright idea.Maybe they aren't fools, but if they let them walk next year for nothing, are they smart?

With respect to Turner...if the Chargers can't get anything more than a 2nd I believe Turner stays a Charger. They will probably get a 3rd round compensatory pick when he leaves via FA the following year so if you were a GM with a team as stacked as the Chargers would you rather essentially move up a round this year (difference between the 2nd rounder this year versus the 3rd rounder next year) or have a stud backup for one of the best teams in the NFL at a reasonable price. I think AJ chooses door #2 especially with the value he's gotten in the draft at various spots (Turner for example was selected mid 5th round). If they can get a 2nd and player or a 1st I think Turner is moved. It's certainly not unprecendented that they would do this considering they let Brees "walk" last year.

My understanding of how compensatory picks are awarded, is that they are not assigned in a vacuum. Meaning, if the Chargers sing a big ticket FA themselves, and lose one, they don't gain a pick.The only time comp picks are awarded, is when teams lose more than they gain, contract-wise. Again, I may be mistaken, but I am pretty sure it's no guarantee that they will recieve a comp pick, because a teams other actions in FA determine their comp picks.

 

[Banger]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

Do these players have no value? If they were free agents, do you think they could get a contract?This isn't some fantasy football wet dream. These are two players that will not be able to be kept by their original team, and will garner interest as starters around the league. If the Chargers and Falcons could get a 2nd rounder, or more, for these guys, exploring a trade this offseason seems like a bright idea.Maybe they aren't fools, but if they let them walk next year for nothing, are they smart?

With respect to Turner...if the Chargers can't get anything more than a 2nd I believe Turner stays a Charger. They will probably get a 3rd round compensatory pick when he leaves via FA the following year so if you were a GM with a team as stacked as the Chargers would you rather essentially move up a round this year (difference between the 2nd rounder this year versus the 3rd rounder next year) or have a stud backup for one of the best teams in the NFL at a reasonable price. I think AJ chooses door #2 especially with the value he's gotten in the draft at various spots (Turner for example was selected mid 5th round). If they can get a 2nd and player or a 1st I think Turner is moved. It's certainly not unprecendented that they would do this considering they let Brees "walk" last year.

My understanding of how compensatory picks are awarded, is that they are not assigned in a vacuum. Meaning, if the Chargers sing a big ticket FA themselves, and lose one, they don't gain a pick.The only time comp picks are awarded, is when teams lose more than they gain, contract-wise. Again, I may be mistaken, but I am pretty sure it's no guarantee that they will recieve a comp pick, because a teams other actions in FA determine their comp picks.

Good point on the comp picks but I'd guess that the Chargers have been and will continue to be one of the least active teams in FA. They are using the majority of their undercap money to resigning their line/defense long term.

 

[kevinray]

No, they are not fools. And, the fantasy football hype surrounding these two needs to stop.

Do these players have no value? If they were free agents, do you think they could get a contract?This isn't some fantasy football wet dream. These are two players that will not be able to be kept by their original team, and will garner interest as starters around the league. If the Chargers and Falcons could get a 2nd rounder, or more, for these guys, exploring a trade this offseason seems like a bright idea.Maybe they aren't fools, but if they let them walk next year for nothing, are they smart?

With respect to Turner...if the Chargers can't get anything more than a 2nd I believe Turner stays a Charger. They will probably get a 3rd round compensatory pick when he leaves via FA the following year so if you were a GM with a team as stacked as the Chargers would you rather essentially move up a round this year (difference between the 2nd rounder this year versus the 3rd rounder next year) or have a stud backup for one of the best teams in the NFL at a reasonable price. I think AJ chooses door #2 especially with the value he's gotten in the draft at various spots (Turner for example was selected mid 5th round). If they can get a 2nd and player or a 1st I think Turner is moved. It's certainly not unprecendented that they would do this considering they let Brees "walk" last year.

My understanding of how compensatory picks are awarded, is that they are not assigned in a vacuum. Meaning, if the Chargers sing a big ticket FA themselves, and lose one, they don't gain a pick.The only time comp picks are awarded, is when teams lose more than they gain, contract-wise. Again, I may be mistaken, but I am pretty sure it's no guarantee that they will recieve a comp pick, because a teams other actions in FA determine their comp picks.

It is no grantee that the chargers would get a comp pick for turner, but I'm pretty sure that if they say lose 2 players who sign big deals and sign 2 bum free agents as practice fodder they lose out as well.Although the NFL weights which round a comp pick is assigned to based on how much the player you lose is paid, I think it reduces the amount of eligible players you can get comp picks for by how many free agents you bring in. Of course we really don’t know that much about comp picks since the NFL keeps the system they use under lock and key to avoid teams making decisions based on comp picks.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I think one close example is that of Billy Volek and the Titans. There was a time when Billy Volek was regarded as highly as Matt Shaub - the Titans refused to trade him, held on to him, and then traded him finally last season for peanuts.

If they had traded him at his peak value, they probably could've gotten a 1st round pick, IMO. What good did it do them for holding on so long?

 

[Gr00vus]

I could see the Chargers trading Turner for a 2nd and some extra goodies (or better) in the offseason to ensure he doesn't land in Denver the following year. But like Banger said I don't think a 2nd straight up will be enough, and I wouldn't like that deal if it did go down.

 

[zamboni]

For SD, I think it depends on what happens with the playoffs. Best case scenario for SD, they win the Superbowl. If that happens, the pressure for next season is off enough for them to deal Turner. If they make the AFC Championship game, I think they should hang on to him for another year.

Agreed - I said pretty much the same thing in the Turner thread.

 

[T Man]

Turner -- IMHO the Chargers put a high tender on him. A Super Bowl contender needs a quality RB backup. Unless the Chargers believe that that backup is on the roster or they can get him, they keep Turner, unless a great offer is made. A #1 from a team in the top 15 may do it. OTherwise, as insurance he is more valuable now then a draft pick in the future. Plus, if he is hot in two years, his salary will likely aid the Chargers in getting a higher comp pick.

Schaub -- oddly enough, IMHO the Falcons should trade him now. HE is a hot commodity and teams using the West Coast system may view him as a very attractive alternative. While Mora ran a WC system, Petrino likely will not. Schaub as a backup in the new system is not as attractive because he does not have the BIG arm. Therefore, trading him seems to be a better idea. A #1 or #2 would be good. Petrino can then draft a late rounder to develop and get a veteran backup to backup VIck.

 

[FTRWRTR]

The falcons aren't fools. They couldn't afford to trade away shaub last year because he was their only decent backup and vick is a constint injury risk. Also the perception of how good shaub is insane and they'll get their first rounder for him this year

 

[Kiddnets]

I think one close example is that of Billy Volek and the Titans. There was a time when Billy Volek was regarded as highly as Matt Shaub - the Titans refused to trade him, held on to him, and then traded him finally last season for peanuts.If they had traded him at his peak value, they probably could've gotten a 1st round pick, IMO. What good did it do them for holding on so long?

Perfect example of holding your cards too long. Comp pick is interesting theory though - Jets tried to get a 1st rd pick for Lamont Jordan but only were offered a 2d rder - they lost him as a UFA but got a 3rd rder comp pick for him - so by keeping him for the extra year they still got a relatively high pick. I think SD holds out for a 1st rder - even if late. Not sure if they will get it.

 

[flufhed]

Just to clarify, the choice would be between a 2007 2nd rd pick, or, at best, a 3rd rd comp pick in the 2009 draft. There is a huge difference between a high 2 now, and a end of the 3rd pick two years from now.

 

[Traders2001]

I agree on one player ( Turner will be a hot commodity ) because he has proven he can be a good RB in this league ( I am not so sure about being a stud , but a decent RB for sure ) .

On the other hand Schaub has nt proven anything since he entered the NFL ( Maybe a few good outings in pre season but that s it ) so i dont see much demand for Schaub ( So far he has proven to be a back up ) .

So he might get traded to a team with a veteran QB with only a few years left in the tank where he has a chance to play someday .

 

[Traders2001]

I think one close example is that of Billy Volek and the Titans. There was a time when Billy Volek was regarded as highly as Matt Shaub - the Titans refused to trade him, held on to him, and then traded him finally last season for peanuts.If they had traded him at his peak value, they probably could've gotten a 1st round pick, IMO. What good did it do them for holding on so long?

Perfect example of holding your cards too long. Comp pick is interesting theory though - Jets tried to get a 1st rd pick for Lamont Jordan but only were offered a 2d rder - they lost him as a UFA but got a 3rd rder comp pick for him - so by keeping him for the extra year they still got a relatively high pick. I think SD holds out for a 1st rder - even if late. Not sure if they will get it.

Exactly .Same applies to our FF team ( Dynasty league i mean ) i traded Lundy after he had a few decent games and got Matt Jones for him , the guy i traded to was kind of crying cause Lundy has nt played a down after i traded him . If i had waited one more week i would not have gotten a third round rookie pick for him .Guys like Schaub have to be traded when they are hot , if they wait one more year to trade SChaub they will get zero for him.

 

[diesel7982]

I think one close example is that of Billy Volek and the Titans. There was a time when Billy Volek was regarded as highly as Matt Shaub - the Titans refused to trade him, held on to him, and then traded him finally last season for peanuts.

If they had traded him at his peak value, they probably could've gotten a 1st round pick, IMO. What good did it do them for holding on so long?

Billy Volek was never highly valued in NFL circles...only on FF message boards.

I spent 3+ years bashing him on this board only to be told how great he was...and we twice got to see what NFL execs thought of him...once when he was a FA and was offered backup level deals by the Bills and Falcons, and last year, when he was given away to the Chargers.

Im already tired of saying it, but FF =/= real life. Volek put up stats, but never played winning football.

 

[diesel7982]

It wasnt that long ago everyone thought David Garrard was in the same place Matt Schaub is now.

The average NFL fan or FF player has a tendency to way overestimate and overvalue "potential" in a business where coaches and execs are judged on "what have you done for me lately?"

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

 

[stevegamer]

It is no grantee that the chargers would get a comp pick for turner, but I'm pretty sure that if they say lose 2 players who sign big deals and sign 2 bum free agents as practice fodder they lose out as well.Although the NFL weights which round a comp pick is assigned to based on how much the player you lose is paid, I think it reduces the amount of eligible players you can get comp picks for by how many free agents you bring in. Of course we really don’t know that much about comp picks since the NFL keeps the system they use under lock and key to avoid teams making decisions based on comp picks.

If a player gets signed for a big-money deal, they will generate a comp pick. It's factored off amount of $ signed for, amount of play, and quality of play. Primarily $.If they lose a number of players who aren't individually pick worthy, but gain very little back, then they will get a non-compensatory pick after the last round.

 

[stevegamer]

It wasnt that long ago everyone thought David Garrard was in the same place Matt Schaub is now.The average NFL fan or FF player has a tendency to way overestimate and overvalue "potential" in a business where coaches and execs are judged on "what have you done for me lately?"I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

I think Garrard had shown more than Schaub has, but nothing has happened with Garrard yet.Turner is a different matter, I agree. He is going to get a deal when he goes UFA to start, unless he gets hurt.

 

[diesel7982]

It wasnt that long ago everyone thought David Garrard was in the same place Matt Schaub is now.

The average NFL fan or FF player has a tendency to way overestimate and overvalue "potential" in a business where coaches and execs are judged on "what have you done for me lately?"

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

I think Garrard had shown more than Schaub has, but nothing has happened with Garrard yet.Turner is a different matter, I agree. He is going to get a deal when he goes UFA to start, unless he gets hurt.

Similar to Schaub now, 2 years ago Garrard was going into RFA, was viewed by the public as someone who would be a starter the next year, and instead signed a low-money 2 year deal to remain Lefty's backup.

 

[Sinrman]

Mmmm, are they stupid for not trading them? Not really. In real life, that means they have great depth at those positions. And in the NFL, you never know from one minute to the next who will remain healthy and who will not. This is especially true with Vick and the Falcons. He plays recklessly, and gives up his body a lot when he runs around like that. He's just one good smack from being out for a season, and they will need Schaub. Not saying they SHOULDN'T trade Schaub, as they could get good value for him. Same with Turner. But both teams would be smart to tender them at the highest price (1st and 3rd), or else a team like Chicago would easily give up a low 1st rounder for Schaub. Or any number of teams would be willing to give up a 1st rounder for Turner if they desperately need a RB and one isn't available in the draft...

 

[Klecko HOF]

I think you also have to factor in the quality of the running backs that will be available in this year's draft.

With Adrian Peterson(just said rumors of him leaving OU are untrue), Marshawn Lynch and Michael Bush, some teams have the luxury of not having to meet San Diego's offer. It really depends. Maybe running back starved teams like the Jets might find it cheaper to hold onto their #1 pick, negotiate a deal for their #2nd round pick, and get a proven NFL back.

Speaking of the Jets, they have their own 2nd round pick, plus Washington's higher 2nd round selection. No one will pay the high price of a #1, but San Diego might budge on a 2nd rounder, or a package of picks.

My point is that Turner is a good option, but not THE only option since the draft has three excellent backs.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I think one close example is that of Billy Volek and the Titans. There was a time when Billy Volek was regarded as highly as Matt Shaub - the Titans refused to trade him, held on to him, and then traded him finally last season for peanuts.If they had traded him at his peak value, they probably could've gotten a 1st round pick, IMO. What good did it do them for holding on so long?

The Falcons also dealt a young backup QB to the Packers for a couple picks 15 years ago, and that didn't work out very well for them.It's a gamble either way.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

 

[Borat]

I think diesel7982 has pretty much nailed it with everything he's said in this thread.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I think diesel7982 has pretty much nailed it with everything he's said in this thread.

diesel usually nails it.especially with FFTOC stuff.

 

[Sammy3469]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

if you are the Jets and decide you want/need a a top-tier RB with your first round pick it's basically Turner v Bush (assuming Lynch is gone by then). He's also a RFA so even if nothing can be worked out, there's nothing the Chargers could do to prevent him from going to that team if they want to give up a 1st and a 3rd. FWIW the "value" for those two picks for the Jets or Denver is somewhere around the 17-18th pick in the upcoming draft, so it's concievable that either could believe Turner is the equivalent to that pick especially since he should know his pass-blocking responsibities by now.

 

[Borat]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

if you are the Jets and decide you want/need a a top-tier RB with your first round pick it's basically Turner v Bush (assuming Lynch is gone by then). He's also a RFA so even if nothing can be worked out, there's nothing the Chargers could do to prevent him from going to that team if they want to give up a 1st and a 3rd. FWIW the "value" for those two picks for the Jets or Denver is somewhere around the 17-18th pick in the upcoming draft, so it's concievable that either could believe Turner is the equivalent to that pick especially since he should know his pass-blocking responsibities by now.

Wouldn't this also require paying Turner a lot more than they'd have to pay the 1st rounder? That certainly would factor in.

 

[diesel7982]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wouldn't this also require paying Turner a lot more than they'd have to pay the 1st rounder? That certainly would factor in.

1st rounders make pretty good money. but year, I'd think Turner would demand a premium, as he should. He's less of a risk than any RB taken that late, and he's ready to play from day 1.

 

[Borat]

Wouldn't this also require paying Turner a lot more than they'd have to pay the 1st rounder? That certainly would factor in.

1st rounders make pretty good money. but year, I'd think Turner would demand a premium, as he should. He's less of a risk than any RB taken that late, and he's ready to play from day 1.

And of course if the contract wasn't big enough for Turner, he could simply play out his final year and just become a UFA.

 

[Sammy3469]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

if you are the Jets and decide you want/need a a top-tier RB with your first round pick it's basically Turner v Bush (assuming Lynch is gone by then). He's also a RFA so even if nothing can be worked out, there's nothing the Chargers could do to prevent him from going to that team if they want to give up a 1st and a 3rd. FWIW the "value" for those two picks for the Jets or Denver is somewhere around the 17-18th pick in the upcoming draft, so it's concievable that either could believe Turner is the equivalent to that pick especially since he should know his pass-blocking responsibities by now.

Wouldn't this also require paying Turner a lot more than they'd have to pay the 1st rounder? That certainly would factor in.

Depends how they structure the deal...for some refence Maroney's deal 1st year was 8.53 for 5 years with a little more than 6 mil guaranteed and Greenway's (17th pick) could be worth 13.25 over 5 years. I'm guessing Turner would get more than either of those guys especially since he'd want a pretty big signing bonus.

 

[Sammy3469]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

FWIW, Turner can sign with anyone he wants and assuming that team is OK giving up a 1st and a 3rd there's nothing the Chargers can do to keep him.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

if you are the Jets and decide you want/need a a top-tier RB with your first round pick it's basically Turner v Bush (assuming Lynch is gone by then). He's also a RFA so even if nothing can be worked out, there's nothing the Chargers could do to prevent him from going to that team if they want to give up a 1st and a 3rd. FWIW the "value" for those two picks for the Jets or Denver is somewhere around the 17-18th pick in the upcoming draft, so it's concievable that either could believe Turner is the equivalent to that pick especially since he should know his pass-blocking responsibities by now.

Wouldn't this also require paying Turner a lot more than they'd have to pay the 1st rounder? That certainly would factor in.

Depends how they structure the deal...for some refence Maroney's deal 1st year was 8.53 for 5 years with a little more than 6 mil guaranteed and Greenway's (17th pick) could be worth 13.25 over 5 years. I'm guessing Turner would get more than either of those guys especially since he'd want a pretty big signing bonus.

turner would not have a great deal of leverage in these negotiations. if he wanted too much, the team would just walk away. i don't think there will be many teams who are willing to give up the 1st for him, limiting his options. he can sign for a contract a team wants, or he can be a backup for another year and wait for FA.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

I agree that all of these factors are legit. Of course the job security issue could be moot a month from now.Personally, unless I was offered a 1st rounder, I'd keep Turner if I were AJ Smith. Give him a nice raise, and continue to spell LT2 with him, while using him as the primary KR.Do you really think Turner will get that much coin? Also, a lot depends on whether the Bolts like any of the RB talent that will be available in the 3/4/5 rounds of the draft. If AJ falls in love with someone, obviously the play is to move Turner for the extra 1st rdr, and grab the back you like in the 3rd/4th.

 

[Banger]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

AJ lacking job security? Not sure where you got that. He built this team. Marty's under the gun but not AJ at all. AJ has probably got the most out of the draft over the past few years of any GM.With your Fred Taylor, Ahman route then what are you saving $1 mill/year for guys with injury issues? Then in a year your back where you are now instead of having a franchise back locked in for 5 years.

 

[massraider]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?

2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued.

3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder.

I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

FWIW, Turner can sign with anyone he wants and assuming that team is OK giving up a 1st and a 3rd there's nothing the Chargers can do to keep him.

If the Chargers can get a 1st and 3rd for a backup RB, and if they try to keep him, everyone should get fired.

 

[diesel7982]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

FWIW, Turner can sign with anyone he wants and assuming that team is OK giving up a 1st and a 3rd there's nothing the Chargers can do to keep him.

Except match the offer...Read up on how the RFA tag works.

 

[diesel7982]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

AJ lacking job security? Not sure where you got that. He built this team. Marty's under the gun but not AJ at all. AJ has probably got the most out of the draft over the past few years of any GM.With your Fred Taylor, Ahman route then what are you saving $1 mill/year for guys with injury issues? Then in a year your back where you are now instead of having a franchise back locked in for 5 years.

Not sure where to start here, but Ill try to go linearly...AJ is very much on the hot seat...not sure why you think he isnt. He's been brought into the woodshed by Spanos a couple times in the past few years, and his constant problems with Marty have very much put his job in jepoardy. Hes likely safe, but a bad season could easily cause the entire house to get cleaned.I dont think you understand the argument on the 2nd part. Contracts in the NFL dont work like they do on your Madden game. My argument is that instead of Dean Spanos paying $10-12+mil out of his pocket up front, AND giving up a 1st round(and likely 3rd round) draft pick for a RB who is UNPROVEN as a starter, its alot easier to sign a proven RB for 1 year while guaranteeing him ZERO and paying him a modest base salary, AND keeping your first round pick which will provide a young player who is locked into very reasonable salaries for 4-5 years.As far as Michael Turner being a "franchise" back...Im not sure what to say there. Hes a good runner, but whats he done that Lamont Jordan didnt do as a Jet? Or Troy Hambrick as a Cowboy? Or Richard Huntley as a Steeler?Its very easy for a RB to look great playing part-time and in blowouts. Im not saying I dont think he has great potential, but I think you vastly underestimate how hard it is for someone to actually make the trade you are talking about and pay him what the market will dictate based of of this part-time potential.

 

[diesel7982]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?

2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued.

3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder.

I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

I agree that all of these factors are legit. Of course the job security issue could be moot a month from now.Personally, unless I was offered a 1st rounder, I'd keep Turner if I were AJ Smith. Give him a nice raise, and continue to spell LT2 with him, while using him as the primary KR.

Do you really think Turner will get that much coin?

Also, a lot depends on whether the Bolts like any of the RB talent that will be available in the 3/4/5 rounds of the draft. If AJ falls in love with someone, obviously the play is to move Turner for the extra 1st rdr, and grab the back you like in the 3rd/4th.

I view him as a similar, perhaps slightly better prospect than Lamont Jordan in his last year with the Jets.Jordan got 5/27.5 with $7m up front. The cap has increased by nearly 25-30% in the last two years(IIRC). If someone is paying a 1st round pick for Turner, Id guess my numbers will be LOW.

 

[diesel7982]

I think diesel7982 has pretty much nailed it with everything he's said in this thread.

diesel usually nails it.especially with FFTOC stuff.

I havent brought this up once since all that went down...but yeah, can't say I didnt try to warn them. Dodds and Joe should have just paid me half that money they threw away on them and considered it a win.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I view him as a similar, perhaps slightly better prospect than Lamont Jordan in his last year with the Jets.Jordan got 5/27.5 with $7m up front. The cap has increased by nearly 25-30% in the last two years(IIRC). If someone is paying a 1st round pick for Turner, Id guess my numbers will be LOW.

Good points re: the cap increase. Jordan is the obvious comparison, so you know Turner will get a ton of scrutiny from GMs who surely understand the risk.Jordan and Turner both lack that "wiggle" to go with their power running style - but Turner runs hungry. Who knows if that hunger will subside with big $ and a starting gig?Of course I'm biased, but his special teams play leads me to believe he's for real. I don't remember Jordan being this much of a demon on special teams.

 

[Banger]

I dont see Turner being traded this offseason. No team is going to give up a #1 for him, and the Chargers would be foolish to trade him for a 2nd round pick when he obviously could step in and keep the offense going if LT goes down. Hes not only one of the best backup RBs in the league, hes also a solid special teamer. Thats worth alot more to a contending team than a draft pick which may or may not pan out.

If I were picking late in the first round and needed a RB, I'd consider trading for Turner.

I dont think its horribly out of the question, but heres why I think it won't happen:1) Im not sure the Chargers would part with him for a late first rounder. A late first rounder means a championship caliber team. Why strengthen a championship caliber team by trading them Turner? Sure the Chargers will get a first-round pick, but what good is that if Marty/AJ aren't around to see that player develop?2) Building on my last point, I dont think theres any doubt both Marty and AJ are lacking long-term job security. If they keep Turner, and LT goes down, their jobs are likely safe. If Andrew Pinnock or Jermane Fazande are back there taking snaps, Marty and AJ could lose their jobs. The running game is the key to the Chargers success, and Turner insures that it will continue having success if LT is hurt/fatigued. 3) The team with a late-first rounder to trade will be paying Turner quite a bit more on a new contract than they would be paying a late first-rounder. With how much the cap is going to increase, id guess Turner would be looking at 5-6 yrs, $30-35+ mil and at least $10-12mil up front. Thats alot of jack to pay for a player and not have a first round pick. Its not that Turner might not be worth it, but why not sign a proven Ahman Green or Fred Taylor for $3-4mil for 1 year, and keep your first rounder? This type of decision is frequently made by NFL execs, as its alot easier to justify signing a proven player and keeping a pick, rather than paying a relatively unproven guy alot of money, in addition to parting with a 1st rounder. I just dont see alot of incentive on either side. Chargers would probably rather keep him, and other teams would probably not rather trade for him.

AJ lacking job security? Not sure where you got that. He built this team. Marty's under the gun but not AJ at all. AJ has probably got the most out of the draft over the past few years of any GM.With your Fred Taylor, Ahman route then what are you saving $1 mill/year for guys with injury issues? Then in a year your back where you are now instead of having a franchise back locked in for 5 years.

Not sure where to start here, but Ill try to go linearly...AJ is very much on the hot seat...not sure why you think he isnt. He's been brought into the woodshed by Spanos a couple times in the past few years, and his constant problems with Marty have very much put his job in jepoardy. Hes likely safe, but a bad season could easily cause the entire house to get cleaned.I dont think you understand the argument on the 2nd part. Contracts in the NFL dont work like they do on your Madden game. My argument is that instead of Dean Spanos paying $10-12+mil out of his pocket up front, AND giving up a 1st round(and likely 3rd round) draft pick for a RB who is UNPROVEN as a starter, its alot easier to sign a proven RB for 1 year while guaranteeing him ZERO and paying him a modest base salary, AND keeping your first round pick which will provide a young player who is locked into very reasonable salaries for 4-5 years.As far as Michael Turner being a "franchise" back...Im not sure what to say there. Hes a good runner, but whats he done that Lamont Jordan didnt do as a Jet? Or Troy Hambrick as a Cowboy? Or Richard Huntley as a Steeler?Its very easy for a RB to look great playing part-time and in blowouts. Im not saying I dont think he has great potential, but I think you vastly underestimate how hard it is for someone to actually make the trade you are talking about and pay him what the market will dictate based of of this part-time potential.

As far as AJ is concerned I've read nearly every Charger related article that I've come across and haven't read anything about him being on the hot seat but whatever. I'd be absolutely shocked if he lost his job even if they get the doors blown off by NE this weekend. He'll have 1/2 dozen teams that would want him as their GM next year. If the toll is a 1st and 3rd it aint gonna happen so we can stop right now. As you well know nothing is guaranteed, definitely with draft picks and even with established vets (see Edge). I'm sure you've seen him play as I have and if you can't tell the difference between Hambrick/Huntley and Turner then I don't know what to say. I'm not basing his value his stats alone. Could he bomb? Sure but I'd guess that the #1 draft pick in the late 20's has a far greater chance of bombing than he would. I'd agree for most teams it doesn't make a lot of sense but I'm thinking specifically of the Jets. If it doesn't happen with them I don't believe he will be moved (IMO). They are in a unique position because they have 2 2nds (one being a fairly high Wash pick) in addition to their 1st (26th), their OC spent two years with the Chargers and got to see Turner up close and personal and his father currently coach's him, they are $28 mill under the cap, have a need for a Rb and are looking to build a core of a team not one year plug-ins via free agency and its rumored that they have interest in him.

 

[T Man]

The fact remains that Turner still has a ton of value to the Chargers. He is a relatively low priced backup with the skills (at least it appears) to replace LT in the event he goes down -- not saying he is LT, but that he appears to be a quality backup. He can help a quality team with Super Bowl aspirations continue on its quest. So the Chargers will likely ask for more then he is worth.

Schaub, on the other hand, is a QB that may be valuable as a backup or potential starter in the WC offense that the Falcons ran under Mora; however, he will not be as valuable to a team where Petrino is going to try and design an offense that meshes with the skills of Vick.

I like Mora as a coach; and, I am not sure that Vick isn't a coach killer. But, you cannot be married to an offensive system without contemplating your talent. In this case, Mora loved the WC system. But Vick is not, and never will be, a WC QB. He should have realized that and had KNapp try something else or go a different direction.

Schaub does not possess any of the skills Vick possesses. So with the WC system scrapped, Schaub as a backup should be too. The Falcons should try to get a high rounder for him and move on.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I hope wherever Turner ends up he gets paid big money and has a long productive career.