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Shaun Alexander...Dynasty value (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Had perhaps his best season yet for the Seahawks last season. Is not anywhere near the dual threat at this point of a Tomlinson type.

Probably has at least 2 more really solid seasons but is inching close to the age of 30...always a mason dixon line for owners.

What could be had for Shaun? Certainly an owner who interested in winning a championship and thinks Shaun might be the over the top player they need would give up something high.

I am not excited about the RB prospects coming out of college. I know many are but Reggie Bush going to a team with no OL, and coming out of Denver University basically for the past 3-4 years...the guy has had really amazing OL to run behind which he won't initially in the NFL. LenDale White on the other hand will be taken by a team in the middle to latter part of the 1st round and probably is a decent team with or without him...much better situation.

So what to do with a Shaun Alexander...certainly keeping him for the next couple of years is not a terrible plan to build your team around but he can't play forever. Still time to get some youth injected into your roster and better yourself long term.

Your thoughts?

 
My initial thought is that it depends a whole lot on whether he stays with Seattle or not. Until that is answered, we don't know what his value is. It almost certanly will be lower if he moves to, say, Baltimore.

 
My initial thought is that it depends a whole lot on whether he stays with Seattle or not. Until that is answered, we don't know what his value is. It almost certanly will be lower if he moves to, say, Baltimore.
Hey!! :boxing:
 
My initial thought is that it depends a whole lot on whether he stays with Seattle or not. Until that is answered, we don't know what his value is. It almost certanly will be lower if he moves to, say, Baltimore.
Hey!! :boxing:
:D Sorry to single you guys out. My point was just that he'd be leaving a system that fits him, and a great OL.

 
OK, he is signed long term. Now where do we see his value?
exactly where it was before - top 3 RBs, but probably 3rd because of age. In a recent aborted dynasty auction, he went for about 10% less than LJ and LT, but 15-20% more than any other RB.
 
OK, he is signed long term.  Now where do we see his value?
exactly where it was before - top 3 RBs, but probably 3rd because of age. In a recent aborted dynasty auction, he went for about 10% less than LJ and LT, but 15-20% more than any other RB.
So basically I should get an arm and a leg for this guy.
 
I've been pondering his value of late as well. I kept Marshall Faulk too long and ended up getting nothing for him and want to avoid that scenerio with SA. However, if I can almost guarantee 16 TDs and 1400 yds from one of my RBs that is pretty tough to top.

No one here is diluting themselves into thinking that he'll be doing much three years from now so I think his value lies in the team you have him on right now. If you have a team that is strong in most areas then I say keep him and ride the gravy train to a championship. However, if he is your only cog and you have little else in your other positions then I think dealing him for the future would probably be the best move.

Someone in your league will give an arm and a leg for him, you just have to decide if you need an arm and a leg.

 
in a zealots league, i just traded him for pick 1.7, willis mcgahee, and andre johnson
:11:
i would not take it that far now.the past 3 years, alexander averaged 16, 19 and then 23 points per game. he is bound to decline from 3 years of improving about 4 points per game each year.

henry averaged 14 per game in 2003, henry and mcgahee averaged about the same in 2004 and mcgahee averaged 13 in 2005.

my predictions for the 2006 season is mcgahee about 13-16 per game and alexander to come back down to earth and average about 16-19. not that big of a difference. plus i got johnson that averaged about 9 points per game his first two years in the league playing on a team with no offensive line/no offensive balance. last year he battled injuries. kubiak will turn that offense around and johnson will improve on his 9 points per game by playing in a better offense and just by gaining more experience.

i also got a first round pick. i could combine my first rounder with the extra first rounder i picked up and maybe even throw in another player if i want to move up in the draft. one of the teams holding a very high pick is stacked at the rb spot and may indeed give it up with a good offer.

all in all i don't feel i substantially downgraded at the rb spot. i got younger. i gained a solid wr and trading power in the draft.
I personally think the other guy was :11:. SA has 3 great years left and you get McGahee coming off a terrible year and could put up the same numbers as SA next year, a young Andre Johnson about to explode and the #7 pick which could be Addai, Chad Jackson, Leinart or Cutler.
 
I see Alexander as the #1 overall fantast back for the next two seasons or so. He has been consistently excellent, and his re-signing with Seattle keeps his stock at an elite level. In a dynasty league, I would take LT or LJ over Alexander, due to age, but make no mistake...Alexander's value at worst is the #3 overall player on the draft board. If anyone where to trade him, he should command a king's ransom.

Full Disclosure: I own Alexander is two dynasty leagues.

 
in a zealots league, i just traded him for pick 1.7, willis mcgahee, and andre johnson
:11:
i would not take it that far now.the past 3 years, alexander averaged 16, 19 and then 23 points per game. he is bound to decline from 3 years of improving about 4 points per game each year.

henry averaged 14 per game in 2003, henry and mcgahee averaged about the same in 2004 and mcgahee averaged 13 in 2005.

my predictions for the 2006 season is mcgahee about 13-16 per game and alexander to come back down to earth and average about 16-19. not that big of a difference. plus i got johnson that averaged about 9 points per game his first two years in the league playing on a team with no offensive line/no offensive balance. last year he battled injuries. kubiak will turn that offense around and johnson will improve on his 9 points per game by playing in a better offense and just by gaining more experience.

i also got a first round pick. i could combine my first rounder with the extra first rounder i picked up and maybe even throw in another player if i want to move up in the draft. one of the teams holding a very high pick is stacked at the rb spot and may indeed give it up with a good offer.

all in all i don't feel i substantially downgraded at the rb spot. i got younger. i gained a solid wr and trading power in the draft.
I have a similar deal on the table. It's in a deep keeper and not a dynasty. The deal is Alexander for McGahee, AJ, 2006 2nd and 2007 1st. I'm pretty sure I'm going to take it. I might take a step back in 2006 but in 2007 and beyond, this trade will improve my team.
 
I think Alexander is worth more than that. A sure thing is worth a lot. You are giving up stable, every week points for question marks. It comes down to quantity vs quality.

Willis has plenty of ???? - coach, QB, OLine

AJohnson ??? - well known

2006 2nd - Not a valuable pick

2007 1st - Not worth near as much since it will be from the Alexander owner who you know will not be in the tank

Alexander, just like LT and LJ, is worth more.

 
in a zealots league, i just traded him for pick 1.7, willis mcgahee, and andre johnson
:11:
i would not take it that far now.the past 3 years, alexander averaged 16, 19 and then 23 points per game. he is bound to decline from 3 years of improving about 4 points per game each year.

henry averaged 14 per game in 2003, henry and mcgahee averaged about the same in 2004 and mcgahee averaged 13 in 2005.

my predictions for the 2006 season is mcgahee about 13-16 per game and alexander to come back down to earth and average about 16-19. not that big of a difference. plus i got johnson that averaged about 9 points per game his first two years in the league playing on a team with no offensive line/no offensive balance. last year he battled injuries. kubiak will turn that offense around and johnson will improve on his 9 points per game by playing in a better offense and just by gaining more experience.

i also got a first round pick. i could combine my first rounder with the extra first rounder i picked up and maybe even throw in another player if i want to move up in the draft. one of the teams holding a very high pick is stacked at the rb spot and may indeed give it up with a good offer.

all in all i don't feel i substantially downgraded at the rb spot. i got younger. i gained a solid wr and trading power in the draft.
mcgahee and andre johnson ruined seasons last year...great players on paper/in theory but in HORRIBLE situations. draft picks are always the great unknown. you gave up one of the most sure things in the game for a bunch of maybes. that's not how you win, IMO. i usually believe in buying low too, but not at that cost.you got fleeced big-time, bud.

 
in a zealots league, i just traded him for pick 1.7, willis mcgahee, and andre johnson
:11:
i would not take it that far now.the past 3 years, alexander averaged 16, 19 and then 23 points per game. he is bound to decline from 3 years of improving about 4 points per game each year.

henry averaged 14 per game in 2003, henry and mcgahee averaged about the same in 2004 and mcgahee averaged 13 in 2005.

my predictions for the 2006 season is mcgahee about 13-16 per game and alexander to come back down to earth and average about 16-19. not that big of a difference. plus i got johnson that averaged about 9 points per game his first two years in the league playing on a team with no offensive line/no offensive balance. last year he battled injuries. kubiak will turn that offense around and johnson will improve on his 9 points per game by playing in a better offense and just by gaining more experience.

i also got a first round pick. i could combine my first rounder with the extra first rounder i picked up and maybe even throw in another player if i want to move up in the draft. one of the teams holding a very high pick is stacked at the rb spot and may indeed give it up with a good offer.

all in all i don't feel i substantially downgraded at the rb spot. i got younger. i gained a solid wr and trading power in the draft.
I personally think the other guy was :11:. SA has 3 great years left and you get McGahee coming off a terrible year and could put up the same numbers as SA next year, a young Andre Johnson about to explode and the #7 pick which could be Addai, Chad Jackson, Leinart or Cutler.
mcgahee gonna put up alexander numbers? i would love to hear how that's gonna shake out. :confused: :confused: andre johnson ready to explode? :confused: :confused: wasn't last year gonna be his explode year? all he did was IMplode and houston is not gonna make a 180 just like that.

taking a rookie QB as part of the pick you got? :confused: :confused: rookie WR? well if you don't wanna win anytime soon i guess not a bad strategy.

too many leaps of faith/reaches for my taste if i'm giving up someone as studly as alexander.

 
I think Alexander is worth more than that. A sure thing is worth a lot. You are giving up stable, every week points for question marks. It comes down to quantity vs quality.

Willis has plenty of ???? - coach, QB, OLine

AJohnson ??? - well known

2006 2nd - Not a valuable pick

2007 1st - Not worth near as much since it will be from the Alexander owner who you know will not be in the tank

Alexander, just like LT and LJ, is worth more.
I don't disagree, and that in part is why I haven't accepted it yet. I didn't want to get into all the details in my first post but should also note that for the last two years, I've traded away draft picks to make a run at the title (Finished 2nd and 3rd). That doesn't kill my 2006 team but has and will hurt my depth. I can't help thinking that 2006 may become a rebuilding (or at least retooling) year. That makes Alexander another year older before I'm ready to challenge again. I should also add that one team has both LJ and LT making a first place finish very difficult.Our 14-team keeper league allows 3 original keepers and then another every time a player is selected from my roster. So I consider the 1st and 2nd to be the equivalent of a 5th and 7th in a redraft. I'll get a starter (or good backup) out of them but they won't be difference makers.

My current keepers would be Alexander, C. Johnson and either K. Jones or E. Manning (heavy QB scoring). Plummer is probably the only other player that has significant worth. The rest of the team is either older (Martin) or more prospect than starter (Perry, Mark Clayton, Edwards, Stevens, Troupe).

If I made the trade, McGahee would replace Alexander as a keeper and I might not even retain AJ, although losing him would allow me to protect someone else.

I guess that doesn't really change your point about Alexander being worth more. Maybe I can get more. Still I think it comes down to what is best for my 2007 team more than my 2006 team. Thanks for your opinion.

 
Doesn't anyone think the loss of the best guard in football will take its toll on SA? Remember that SA was never known as a great talent, even though he has very solid skills. I think from a talent standpoint he is clearly out of the top 5 and closer to the 10 mark, but he has had the top 1-3 Ol to run behind in football. With Hutch gone, I see him back at 16 points a week (which is still darn good)

 
Doesn't anyone think the loss of the best guard in football will take its toll on SA? Remember that SA was never known as a great talent, even though he has very solid skills. I think from a talent standpoint he is clearly out of the top 5 and closer to the 10 mark, but he has had the top 1-3 Ol to run behind in football. With Hutch gone, I see him back at 16 points a week (which is still darn good)
Ashworth <<<<< HutchNot to mention both Tobeck and Gray are 36 years-old.

 
in a zealots league, i just traded him for pick 1.7, willis mcgahee, and andre johnson
This is why I usually trade away a RB who finishes #1 overall. Always when he's going to be 29yo this season. McGahee alone is easily worth more than Alexander in my book. Then you get one of the best upcoming WRs in the NFL and a middle round rookie pick that will be in heavy demand next month. Trade him now. In 2007 he'll be going on 30 and wont be the #1 RB headed into the season. He wont be worth anywhere near that. Cash in now.
 
i hope Meshawn tears his knee in preseaon. that piece of dung isn't worthy of wearing a panthers jersey...
i offered Rudi(4), Rod Smith(1) Gold(2) for ALexander(4) and he said no and he has issues at WR and LB( ) =contract yrs

 
i offered Rudi(4), Rod Smith(1) Gold(2) for ALexander(4) and he said no and he has issues at WR and LB

( ) =contract yrs
Rudi may not be starting in Cincinnati long-term. I do not see someone trading SA, unless they get an unquestioned starter back (e.g. Portis, McGahee, RBrown, Tiki, etc.)
 
i offered Rudi(4), Rod Smith(1) Gold(2) for ALexander(4) and he said no and he has issues at WR and LB

( ) =contract yrs
Rudi may not be starting in Cincinnati long-term. I do not see someone trading SA, unless they get an unquestioned starter back (e.g. Portis, McGahee, RBrown, Tiki, etc.)
Tiki has less yrs left than SA. Doesn't Tiki wanna retire after this next season?
 
i hope Meshawn tears his knee in preseaon. that piece of dung isn't worthy of wearing a panthers jersey...
i offered Rudi(4), Rod Smith(1) Gold(2) for ALexander(4) and he said no and he has issues at WR and LB( ) =contract yrs
Rod Smith is the only player in the NFL older than Tagliabue. His worth isn't too high.Ian Gold? His value isn't that high either.

I, for one, cannot blame the other guy for not giving Alexander away for Rudi.

 
i hope Meshawn tears his knee in preseaon. that piece of dung isn't worthy of wearing a panthers jersey...
i offered Rudi(4), Rod Smith(1) Gold(2) for ALexander(4) and he said no and he has issues at WR and LB( ) =contract yrs
You have to offer better than that. Gold is avg and Smith is nearing the end. I would rather have a guy like Branch or E Parker in a dynasty.
 
Bump.

I have the 3rd overall pick in an initial dynasty draft, and was thinking of Portis (assuming LT, LJ go 1 &2); but with his recent injury, i'm thinking of going back on Shaun. Any other opinions on Shaun's dynasty value? If you're in a position where you can move down a few spots would you? Or do you just shutup and be happy with SA? Cheers.

 
take reggie bush

have some fun with it!

seriously though, if you were gonna take Portis before, take him now still

his injury is a seperated shoulder, he didnt tear 3 knee ligaments

 
I think he will not be a top-3 RB this year, and not a top-5 next year

If I had a top-3 pick, I'd trade down to 6-7, because I think you can grab a guy like SJax or Caddy, which will climb into the top 5 this season and for a few years to go

 
SA has proven to be one of those exceptions to the rules. He stays healthy. He racks up monster fantasy points. He's basically Emmitt Smith and Eric Dickerson in terms of durability.

Until he really starts to show less ability, I see no reason why he'd be any less than 5th or 6th in any given year.

 
I put him on the block & have had ZERO bites
Figure current owners overvalue him since he'll be well rested for the play-offs.Figure potential owners want him at a discount, but are being told that it's still the full price of admission.He's still at the "too good to trade away" stage, but closing in on the "too old to get good value in trade" stage. Sometimes hard to distinguish between the two.
 

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