Shaun Philips #86 on cheatsheets? (1 Viewer)

[pinda]

From what I've read he's going to play this week and that there's no calf issue, how can he be #86???

 

[Jene Bramel]

From what I've read he's going to play this week and that there's no calf issue, how can he be #86???

We put out all our content early this week. I expect that John didn't get a chance to update after the negative MRI and reports that Phillips practiced yesterday. Should he practice today and tomorrow, he's clearly a much better play, even with the more mobile Brooks behind center.

 

[pinda]

great upgrade to #61,

he only has 6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 pass defensed, and 1.5 sacks

nice call on that one

who does these cheatsheets anyway? it was more than obvious that once Philips was starting that this guy should be in the top 20.

 

[SlaX]

I started him for Ray Lewis due to the GTD since I was at work and wasn't sure if Lewis would play. Of course, Lewis wound up playing, and Phillips only scored .25 point more for me than Lewis but I still like the call. I'll have to find room for both next week. It's tough, since I also have Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher and Angelo Crowell and can only start 4 of the 5 of them at once (my league has them all classified as DLs). Did I mention that I like my DLs?

 

[Jene Bramel]

great upgrade to #61,he only has 6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 pass defensed, and 1.5 sacksnice call on that onewho does these cheatsheets anyway? it was more than obvious that once Philips was starting that this guy should be in the top 20.

Not to speak for Norton who does the projections, but I'm not sure how you could've reasonably expected Phillips to put up nine total tackles this week. On the road with Justin Fargas running the ball and Aaron Brooks throwing it behind a poor and beat up offensive line. Phillips has 20 solo tackles outside of his 7.5 sacks in eight games, with the bulk of those coming in the Chargers' closer games.Phillips, at his healthiest in Week 1, put up 3-1-1.5 against the Raiders. The Raiders have faced four 3-4 teams -- no LB has had more than 3 solo tackles outside of sacks. I may have given Phillips an extra tackle or part of a sack but I certainly wouldn't have been comfortable projecting more than a 4-1-1.5. I certainly wouldn't have expected the Raiders to keep this game close enough to run 56 offensive plays with a nearly 1-1 balance run-pass. Play that game in SD 10 times with the same personnel and I think Phillips averages closer to 3-0-1 than 6-3-1.5.Anyway, the projections are never going to be perfect. Norton will hit some, miss some. As always, the cheatsheets are meant to be a guide not gospel, especially if your scoring system is skewed away from a standard setup.

 

[pinda]

great upgrade to #61,he only has 6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 pass defensed, and 1.5 sacksnice call on that onewho does these cheatsheets anyway? it was more than obvious that once Philips was starting that this guy should be in the top 20.

Not to speak for Norton who does the projections, but I'm not sure how you could've reasonably expected Phillips to put up nine total tackles this week. On the road with Justin Fargas running the ball and Aaron Brooks throwing it behind a poor and beat up offensive line. Phillips has 20 solo tackles outside of his 7.5 sacks in eight games, with the bulk of those coming in the Chargers' closer games.Phillips, at his healthiest in Week 1, put up 3-1-1.5 against the Raiders. The Raiders have faced four 3-4 teams -- no LB has had more than 3 solo tackles outside of sacks. I may have given Phillips an extra tackle or part of a sack but I certainly wouldn't have been comfortable projecting more than a 4-1-1.5. I certainly wouldn't have expected the Raiders to keep this game close enough to run 56 offensive plays with a nearly 1-1 balance run-pass. Play that game in SD 10 times with the same personnel and I think Phillips averages closer to 3-0-1 than 6-3-1.5.Anyway, the projections are never going to be perfect. Norton will hit some, miss some. As always, the cheatsheets are meant to be a guide not gospel, especially if your scoring system is skewed away from a standard setup.

I would have given him at least 4-2-1.5 which in most leagues puts him in to the top 30. But #61, come on man, even you can't defend that. His projected sacks with even 1-1 would put him in the top 40. This guy is a playmaker. I just disagree with what he was projected.

 

[Jene Bramel]

great upgrade to #61,he only has 6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 pass defensed, and 1.5 sacksnice call on that onewho does these cheatsheets anyway? it was more than obvious that once Philips was starting that this guy should be in the top 20.

Not to speak for Norton who does the projections, but I'm not sure how you could've reasonably expected Phillips to put up nine total tackles this week. On the road with Justin Fargas running the ball and Aaron Brooks throwing it behind a poor and beat up offensive line. Phillips has 20 solo tackles outside of his 7.5 sacks in eight games, with the bulk of those coming in the Chargers' closer games.Phillips, at his healthiest in Week 1, put up 3-1-1.5 against the Raiders. The Raiders have faced four 3-4 teams -- no LB has had more than 3 solo tackles outside of sacks. I may have given Phillips an extra tackle or part of a sack but I certainly wouldn't have been comfortable projecting more than a 4-1-1.5. I certainly wouldn't have expected the Raiders to keep this game close enough to run 56 offensive plays with a nearly 1-1 balance run-pass. Play that game in SD 10 times with the same personnel and I think Phillips averages closer to 3-0-1 than 6-3-1.5.Anyway, the projections are never going to be perfect. Norton will hit some, miss some. As always, the cheatsheets are meant to be a guide not gospel, especially if your scoring system is skewed away from a standard setup.

I would have given him at least 4-2-1.5 which in most leagues puts him in to the top 30. But #61, come on man, even you can't defend that. His projected sacks with even 1-1 would put him in the top 40. This guy is a playmaker. I just disagree with what he was projected.

I won't defend Norton's rankings one way or the other. I'm just discussing the process a bit.It's easy for me to say I'd have projected 5-6 total tackles and more than one sack after the fact. I felt and posted that he was a much better play than originally projected if he made it through a full week of practice in response to your original post. I think I would've projected around 4-1-1 based on my previous post which would've put him around #40 in the scoring system we use. My confidence level would've been higher though because of his big play upside (eg. I started him over Vilma in a tackle skewed start 3 LB league last week) and that's where the usual debate of projections vs rankings start. But if I'm staying true to the process, I can't reliably project a player coming off an aggravated injury to get 66% more solo tackles than the average (including himself) 3-4 OLB has gotten this season against the Raiders this season who now have a worse running game and no underneath passing game. You'll get no disagreement from me that Phillips is a playmaker. He's one of the few 3-4 OLB I've considered rostering in a standard league.

 

[bonscott]

I personally benched him based on the matchup.

But once again I see too many people taking too much stock in the actual number of the ranking. I mean #61? Who cares. I look and see that with just a lowly 3 more points projected he'd be #25.

*Don't* look at the number ranking so much as the projected point total or the actual projected stat line.

 

[mario8723]

Here's a better idea: why don't we have Pinda post his rankings for Week 13 and then we'll all pick them apart next Tuesday?

 

[pinda]

Here's a better idea: why don't we have Pinda post his rankings for Week 13 and then we'll all pick them apart next Tuesday?

Here's an even better idea, pay me the yearly fee, and I will. Here's a hint that's for free, John Abraham should be in the top 148 DL's for this week.

 

[helix]

I think it is safe to say that Norton's record on Phillips is not very good. Out of the 9 weeks Phillips played, he outperformed his ranking 6 times and underperformed 2 twice with 1 spot on call. Obviously Phillips is very difficult to handicap, but he points out as a top LB (unless he gets hurt). Since he is a top 25 LB in most scoring systems, I would start him and hope for the best. Forget the rankings and pray for sacks.

From Norton's body of work, I will say that this week’s #20 ranking worries me…

Week 1) Ranked 46- outperformed

Week 2) Ranked 43- slight under

Week 4) #58- outperform

Week 5) #45- outperform

Week 6) #49- heavy outperform

Week 7) #25- massive underperform (injury)

Week 8) out

Week 9) out

Week 10) #50- outperform

Week 11) #38- inline

Week 12) #61- outperform

Week 13) #20- ???

 

[Jene Bramel]

Here's a better idea: why don't we have Pinda post his rankings for Week 13 and then we'll all pick them apart next Tuesday?

Here's an even better idea, pay me the yearly fee, and I will. Here's a hint that's for free, John Abraham should be in the top 148 DL's for this week.

Thanks for the catch. I agree, even with the few snaps he's gotten in his last two games protecting him from further harm, he should see more time and have been projected. Probably a coding issue. I'll forward it to Norton to make the correction. No worries on my end about criticizing our work. Discussion improves the whole. But you probably opened yourself up to mario's comment with the tone of your second post in this thread.

I think it is safe to say that Dodds record on Phillips is not very good. Out of the 9 weeks Phillips played, he outperformed his ranking 6 times and underperformed 2 twice with 1 spot on call. Obviously Phillips is very difficult to handicap, but he points out as a top LB (unless he gets hurt). Since he is a top 25 LB in most scoring systems, I would start him and hope for the best. Forget the rankings and pray for sacks. From Dodds body of work, I will say that this week’s #20 ranking worries me… Week 1) Ranked 46- outperformedWeek 2) Ranked 43- slight underWeek 4) #58- outperformWeek 5) #45- outperformWeek 6) #49- heavy outperformWeek 7) #25- massive underperform (injury)Week 8) outWeek 9) outWeek 10) #50- outperformWeek 11) #38- inlineWeek 12) #61- outperformWeek 13) #20- ???

FYI, Dodds does the offensive and team defense projections. Norton does the IDP projections. Thanks for the breakdown. It's difficult to be confident projecting big tackle and multi-sack games for a 3-4 OLB even with the fractional points available now. I've always been torn on the usefulness of weekly projections. Part of me thinks projections are a futile exercise and part of me sees them as a necessary evil. OLBs and CBs are particularly difficult because of the volatile nature of big play stats and the variability in how a single game can affect the opportunity of these players. Those two positions in particular (and DE to a lesser extent) should almost always have a bullet next to their projection -- YMMV.Hopefully, John can check in here for some QA/QC discussion.

 

[bonscott]

Personally I really miss Norton's IDP cheatsheet he used to provide with the EOTG at Red Eye. I think he even added it back in last year. But this year no. I always ignored any projections with IDP because it's so volatile and just went with his cheatsheet. Served me well for many years.

Please bring back the EOTG IPD cheatsheet for 2007.

 

[DeCleater]

great upgrade to #61,he only has 6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 pass defensed, and 1.5 sacksnice call on that onewho does these cheatsheets anyway? it was more than obvious that once Philips was starting that this guy should be in the top 20.

Not to speak for Norton who does the projections, but I'm not sure how you could've reasonably expected Phillips to put up nine total tackles this week. On the road with Justin Fargas running the ball and Aaron Brooks throwing it behind a poor and beat up offensive line. Phillips has 20 solo tackles outside of his 7.5 sacks in eight games, with the bulk of those coming in the Chargers' closer games.Phillips, at his healthiest in Week 1, put up 3-1-1.5 against the Raiders. The Raiders have faced four 3-4 teams -- no LB has had more than 3 solo tackles outside of sacks. I may have given Phillips an extra tackle or part of a sack but I certainly wouldn't have been comfortable projecting more than a 4-1-1.5. I certainly wouldn't have expected the Raiders to keep this game close enough to run 56 offensive plays with a nearly 1-1 balance run-pass. Play that game in SD 10 times with the same personnel and I think Phillips averages closer to 3-0-1 than 6-3-1.5.Anyway, the projections are never going to be perfect. Norton will hit some, miss some. As always, the cheatsheets are meant to be a guide not gospel, especially if your scoring system is skewed away from a standard setup.

What you forgot to factor in was Merriman. How many sacks and tackles did he have Week 1? With him not playing I bumped Phillips stats thinking he would get more opportunities. When Merriman returns Phillips will take a slight dip but still be one of the best 3-4 OLB's.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What you forgot to factor in was Merriman. How many sacks and tackles did he have Week 1? With him not playing I bumped Phillips stats thinking he would get more opportunities. When Merriman returns Phillips will take a slight dip but still be one of the best 3-4 OLB's.

I would argue that having Merriman and Castillo out on the opposite side of the front would allow opposing teams to roll protection toward Phillips more often and leave him less opportunity to make plays.

 

[John Norton]

I personally benched him based on the matchup.But once again I see too many people taking too much stock in the actual number of the ranking. I mean #61? Who cares. I look and see that with just a lowly 3 more points projected he'd be #25.*Don't* look at the number ranking so much as the projected point total or the actual projected stat line.

Thank you Bon. You hit the nail right on the head I'll make the explanation real simple. I DON'T TRUST 3-4 outside linebackers PERIOD! They don't make enough tackles, lack consistency in general and are extremely difficult to project/rely on from week to week. If one of them has a stand out match up he will make the top 20 but based on reliability it will rare. If your scoring is skewed toward sacks Phillips is obviously a stud and should be ranked higher but then those aren't "rankings" you are looking at, they are PROJECTIONS. If you are only looking at the ranking number you're missing the boat completely. What Pinda doesn't seem to realize is just how far a slight adjustment will move a guy. One more tackle and half a sack would be about three points in the formula we use for ranking the projections. If Bon did his math correctly, that would put Phillips in the top 25 on the list. Granted Phillips has been impressive in the sack column but prior to the Raiders game the guy had only reached 5 solo tackles twice in 9 games. If he gets shut out on sacks and puts up his usual 3-4 tackles, where does he rank then? If you want to trust him to get a sack every week or take the chance that he will go large, that's up to you, but when a guy averages 3.6 (solo) tackles a game and has such a lousy match up to boot, why would I project him to have his second highest tackle total of the year? Pinda, I'm sorry that you don't think I'm showing your guy enough love but if he wasn't on your team and you were looking at it objectively, you may not be loving him so much either. On the subject of John Abraham I'll just say this, go look at last weeks stat line for him. Anyone who has been playing this game long enough to remember, should know that we have been down this road with him before. He had the same injury a few years back with the Jets and missed several weeks. When he tried to play he was all but completely useless for the remainder of the season. When/if he shows us some production I will certainly adjust his numbers accordingly. We welcome and appreciate discussion and sometimes even tactful criticism from our readers. You are some of the most knowledgeable football people on the planet and often your viewpoints will prod me/us into taking a harder look at a player or a situation. I have no doubt that many of you could do a fine job on projections. Every once in a while someone tells us all about how he could do such a better job. That's easy to say when you are only looking at the players on your teams. Try projecting 400+ players each week for a full season and then let's compare. There is a lot of thought, effort and consideration that goes into what we do. Thank you for appreciating it Best of luck to everyone this week!

 

[John Norton]

I would argue that having Merriman and Castillo out on the opposite side of the front would allow opposing teams to roll protection toward Phillips more often and leave him less opportunity to make plays.

I would agree completely. The absence of two outstanding playmakers would certainly do nothing to help Phillips and was also a consideration in my week 12 projections.

 

[Young 8]

Granted Phillips has been impressive in the sack column but prior to the Raiders game the guy had only reached 5 solo tackles twice in 9 games. If he gets shut out on sacks and puts up his usual 3-4 tackles, where does he rank then? If you want to trust him to get a sack every week or take the chance that he will go large, that's up to you, but when a guy averages 3.6 (solo) tackles a game and has such a lousy match up to boot, why would I project him to have his second highest tackle total of the year?

actually he have at least 1sack in 7 of his 8 games