Shawn Alexander being overlooked a bit? (1 Viewer)

[Da Guru]

16-18-20-28 were his TD totals prior to last season.

Last season he broke his foot and was hobbled. Is there any reason to believe that Alexander will not get back in the 15 to 20 TD range again?

Alexander just turned 30, I don`t think he has taken much abuse due to the fact he will run out of bounds. Morris does not impress other than a backup. Holmgren likes to run the ball inside the 5. A track record of finding the endzone.

Alexander should possibly be ranked #3.

Thoughts?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

16-18-20-28 were his TD totals prior to last season.

Last season he broke his foot and was hobbled. Is there any reason to believe that Alexander will not get back in the 15 to 20 TD range again?

Alexander just turned 30, I don`t think he has taken much abuse due to the fact he will run out of bounds. Morris does not impress other than a backup. Holmgren likes to run the ball inside the 5.

Alexander should possibly be ranked #3.

Thoughts?

You had me until here. Alexander's a good player but you've gotta stop hanging onto the past. Which is exactly what you're doing by ranking him that high. Seattle isn't what it was. Steve Hutchinson is gone. Walter Jones is still around but he's been hurt in training camp. The old days (of two seasons ago) are gone. He can still be a top 10 running back but I think his top 5 days where he had 18-20 TDs and ran for 1800 yards are over. Even when he was healthy last season he wasn't that good.

 

[Fantaholic]

I have to agree Guru. I pick 11th, so I know I won't be getting him anyways, but if I were picking in the 4 or 5 spot I would be tickled to get him. I've never seen an elite back get written off quite this quickly. Say what you want about the o-line, but Seattle is still a very solid team. They will compete for the NFC crown once again (not saying much) and Alexander will be a big part of that as usual. Morris sucks. He had his chance to prove that he was as good as touted for years and showed little. IMO Alexander is a safe pick at 1.3.

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

16-18-20-28 were his TD totals prior to last season.

Last season he broke his foot and was hobbled. Is there any reason to believe that Alexander will not get back in the 15 to 20 TD range again?

Alexander just turned 30, I don`t think he has taken much abuse due to the fact he will run out of bounds. Morris does not impress other than a backup. Holmgren likes to run the ball inside the 5.

Alexander should possibly be ranked #3.

Thoughts?

. Even when he was healthy last season he wasn't that good.

When was he healthy last year?

 

[shims3]

I got the 5th pick and thought about him, but as The Man said...Seattle is not the same. I still think he could be good, but not sure...I think all those backs from 3 on are all ?s. Addai and Gore could easily have a second and third year slump. We have seen it happen to KJ, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, etc. Westbrook is an injury concern and for some reason, I am not sold on Willie Parker. LJ is holding out and has a lot of miles, a terrible offense and did I say...holding out. Alexander could be great, but it is an unknown. What a crapshoot this year is for RB3-10.

 

[Fantaholic]

I got the 5th pick and thought about him, but as The Man said...Seattle is not the same. I still think he could be good, but not sure...I think all those backs from 3 on are all ?s. Addai and Gore could easily have a second and third year slump. We have seen it happen to KJ, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, etc. Westbrook is an injury concern and for some reason, I am not sold on Willie Parker. LJ is holding out and has a lot of miles, a terrible offense and did I say...holding out. Alexander could be great, but it is an unknown. What a crapshoot this year is for RB3-10.

My point exactly. You make mention that RB3-10 is a crapshoot. All the more reason to go with a guy that has averaged over 20 TD's a year for the last 5 years barring injury???

 

[FantasyTrader]

I think Alexander will bust this year. I believe he'll still have value, but won't live up to early 1st round draft status. He had an incredibly productive game v. the Packers late in the season to save a sub 3.0 yd. per carry average. Yes, he was dealing with the foot injury most of the year but I blame the loss of Hutchinson as well. I don't think Alexander will ever be an elite RB again.

 

[PahtyTom]

It is often a slippery slope for RBs at this stage. The chance of a rebound is remote IMO.

 

[Chris Smith]

Before you write off Alexander, it should be noted he reported to camp in the best shape of his career and his determination to regain his past form has been obvious. At times in the past, it was easy to question the easy-going Alexander's dedication to his craft but not this season.

For what it's worth. I think he is poised for a return to the top five. He isn't old enough to put to pasture yet.

 

[Chaos Commish]

16-18-20-28 were his TD totals prior to last season.

Last season he broke his foot and was hobbled. Is there any reason to believe that Alexander will not get back in the 15 to 20 TD range again?

Alexander just turned 30, I don`t think he has taken much abuse due to the fact he will run out of bounds. Morris does not impress other than a backup. Holmgren likes to run the ball inside the 5.

Alexander should possibly be ranked #3.

Thoughts?

. Even when he was healthy last season he wasn't that good.

When was he healthy last year?

Week 16 @ home against the Chargers. Both teams were playing for playoff seeding. Alexander went 31-140-2, both TDs were sweet, spinning and straight arming on a 9 yarder, busting through Merriman on a 33 yarder. Nice. I expect a bunch more of that this year. Sims is going to be a great replacement for Hutch. Jones is still great, just cruising like an old vet in the offseason. I agree, non-ppr, RB3, and It's an easy call for me. The Seahawks were out of sync last year. If they stay healthy, they should be good, and Shaun should have a nice season. One last time.

 

[joffer]

Before you write off Alexander, it should be noted he reported to camp in the best shape of his career

do i really need to say it?

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm drafting for a buddy tomorrow because he's out of town on business, and he has 1.6 in a non-PPR redraft league. I'm seriously considering Parker / SA / Addai in that order. I expect LT2, SJax, LJ, Gore to go top 4. Some would say take Henry or Rudi at 1.6, but I'm telling you now that Henry leaves a puke taste in my mouth no matter how good he is this year. So really at 1.6 in a redraft non-ppr league, it will probably come down to SA / Addai / Rudi. I would love to see Parker fall to me. Hell, with all the bad press for LJ or Gore, I may luck out with one of those. I will not take Westbrook or Reggie Bush or MJD at 1.6 in a non-ppr league.

 

[facook]

In mocks I've taken him at 8, 10, and 11 in the last two weeks. I'll be ecstatic if he falls to me that late in my drafts (all my picks are 8 or later).

 

[cstu]

Despite the fact that he's 30, I think he has another 1 or 2 top years in him. His foot is a concern but it appears healed and even if it's not the dominant Seahawks OL of the past, Alexander is still running the ball in the same system with the same HC. I agree with JohnnyU that it's between SA/Addai/Parker/Rudi for the 5-8 spots in non-PPR.

 

[mad sweeney]

I think Alexander will bust this year. I believe he'll still have value, but won't live up to early 1st round draft status. He had an incredibly productive game v. the Packers late in the season to save a sub 3.0 yd. per carry average. Yes, he was dealing with the foot injury most of the year but I blame the loss of Hutchinson as well. I don't think Alexander will ever be an elite RB again.

How about the loss of Hutchinson, Gray, Tobeck, Locklear, Strong, Hasselbeck, Engram, Jackson and an injured Walter Jones. Alexander was hurt in the first game of the season and at the end of the season had a great game against the #1 D in their house. The Seahawks had exactly 1 starter who didn't miss at least one game last season, and tha includes 5 or 6 probowlers. And had a different combo of linemen almost every single week. An O line needs to work together and gel and that never happened last season due to injuries. Using last year's stats as any indicator will throw you off because we were just one of those teams that got nailed everywhere with injury. Holmgren has pledged to involve him more in the passing game as he used to be and the whole team, especially the O-line has gotten healthier and cohesive. The OL absolutely owned San Diego's starting D.ETA: Womack, Hutch's primary replacement also spent several games injured (as usual)Could injuries mount again this year? Sure, but I think Gore has a better chance of missing time than SA and the Seattle O is well above SF's. He' had months off to heal, has looked outstanding in camp, has a healthy team around him and a coach determined to use him in the RZ and passing game more. He may be approaching 30 but if you have watched him play, he doesn't take huge hits so his mileage is lower than his age. Depending on the LJ status when I draft, I'd snap him up in a second if he was there after pick 3. And yes I am a Seattle homer but I have honestly never been an SA fan, more for NFL reasons than FF. While I don't think he'll get in the 20s I can't see him getting less than 1600/16 with some upside possibilties. Like someone else said above, if you feel there's a muck of comparable guys in picks 3-10, go for the guy on the high power offense who's done it before and never had less than 16 TDs in any season as a starter except for his one injury year, prior to which I believe he missed only one game for injury.As for a good game against GB "saving" his ypc, he played 2 games with the injury (3 if you count week 1, the game he was hurt in) before he was benched for it and returned to an injured team and had to get back in stride. That'll drive even LT's ypc down. The fact that he put up good numbers at the end of the season and especially in Chicago show that the foot has healed just fine and he is ready to go.

 

[notapplicable]

Draft a rb who is 30 years old after coming off of a severe foot injury in the previous season? No thank you.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

Just drafted SA at 1.12 in Phenoms Alpha50 league. 1/2ppr RB which drops him a bit but I was happy at 1.12

 

[perry147]

In my dynasty league He has changed hands twice thus far this offseason.

 

[Ilov80s]

If you look at Shaun's numbers after he returned from injury (including playoffs). Project that to a 16 game season and you get 1575 rushing and 12 TDs. That projects to 14 points a game (standard scoring) which would have made him the 8th RB last year. Now certainly thats not amazing, but I would say it is good. Alexander was likely not 100% at any point last season. Now he should be at 100% and may benefit from the reduced workload in 06. It would be fair to say that those projections may be on the low side. So in the end, I think Alexander is really being taken right where he belongs. He projects to top 10, but based on his amazing history, should be going before the less proven but similarly projected players like Maroney, Addai, Rudi and Henry.

 

[hephner]

I got the 5th pick and thought about him, but as The Man said...Seattle is not the same. I still think he could be good, but not sure...I think all those backs from 3 on are all ?s. Addai and Gore could easily have a second and third year slump. We have seen it happen to KJ, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, etc. Westbrook is an injury concern and for some reason, I am not sold on Willie Parker. LJ is holding out and has a lot of miles, a terrible offense and did I say...holding out. Alexander could be great, but it is an unknown. What a crapshoot this year is for RB3-10.

I wouldn't really put Ronnie Brown in the category of a sophomore slump. He had nearly the same, but actually slightly better #s in year 2 (below). Maybe you're just thinking it was a slump cause he has never really been that good, despite high expectations. Well, to be fair, their o-line has never been good, and I think much of his statistical mediocrity can be attributed to that. | Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 mia | 15 | 207 907 4.4 4 | 32 232 7.2 1 || 2006 mia | 13 | 241 1008 4.2 5 | 33 276 8.4 0 |Personally, I don't see Gore slumping, as long as he is healthy. If both he and SA are available in a slot I were drafting, I wouldn't hesitate to take Gore. Addai on the other hand, would possibly be a better candidate for the sophomore slump, because I just think he's a special back. But his situation is one of the best in the league, and as long as he doesn't get hurt, he'll probably still end up as a top 10 back, maybe better. However, I think he's still being overvalued right now in drafts. LJ has been falling in drafts, and might be available in with the mid first round picks right around where Alexander is being taken, and I'd much rather go with LJ, despite a good amount of risk there too.

 

[mad sweeney]

If you look at Shaun's numbers after he returned from injury (including playoffs). Project that to a 16 game season and you get 1575 rushing and 12 TDs. That projects to 14 points a game (standard scoring) which would have made him the 8th RB last year. Now certainly thats not amazing, but I would say it is good. Alexander was likely not 100% at any point last season. Now he should be at 100% and may benefit from the reduced workload in 06. It would be fair to say that those projections may be on the low side. So in the end, I think Alexander is really being taken right where he belongs. He projects to top 10, but based on his amazing history, should be going before the less proven but similarly projected players like Maroney, Addai, Rudi and Henry.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Just drafted SA at 1.12 in Phenoms Alpha50 league. 1/2ppr RB which drops him a bit but I was happy at 1.12

well... hurry up and make your second pick =)Rudi

 

[hotdogcollars]

Using last year's stats as any indicator will throw you off because we were just one of those teams that got nailed everywhere with injury.

Sorry, i just get a real laugh every time i hear/see that come from anyone who is more than 12 years old.

As for SA, anyone here own him last year, AND is sitting at 4,5,or 6 this year AND is going to pick him again?

 

[vichawkfan]

16-18-20-28 were his TD totals prior to last season. Last season he broke his foot and was hobbled. Is there any reason to believe that Alexander will not get back in the 15 to 20 TD range again?Alexander just turned 30, I don`t think he has taken much abuse due to the fact he will run out of bounds. Morris does not impress other than a backup. Holmgren likes to run the ball inside the 5. A track record of finding the endzone. Alexander should possibly be ranked #3.Thoughts?

I can see #3. But his ADP is around 4-7....if you like him at #3 than take him.You can't look at ONE bad season where he and the entire team was hurt at some point. His body is not beat up despite loads of carries. He has a passing game that prevents too many 8 in the box. Apart from an injury plagued year, he avg's about 17TDs per season for 6 years. Gore/LJ both with BIG risks this season. Honestly, not being a homer, but he's a shoe-in for top 5 this year.

 

[radballs]

Standard = RB6

PPR = RB8

 

[PahtyTom]

I just have to say it, his name is Shaun.

 

[radballs]

I just have to say it, his name is Shaun.

 

[Penguin]

Standard = RB6PPR = RB8

I think this is very accurate. I have him at #5 in a standard league (two points above #6) and 8th in PPR's

 

[Unlucky]

Just drafted SA at 1.12 in Phenoms Alpha50 league. 1/2ppr RB which drops him a bit but I was happy at 1.12

When I noticed that, I was shocked. That's a steal.I have Alexander at RB4, still. I'd be more worried if he was coming off ACL surgery or a severe muscle injury. Don't know why the foot thing doesn't have me as worried. Where's the doctor's analysis in all of this?

 

[Johnny]

I am so torn on taking Alexander or Henry. I am extremely high on Henry. I honestly have no clue who to take. FBG seems to not like Alexander and really likes Henry. My league is .5 PPR.

I can make a case for both guys and of course make one not to take them.

 

[SSOG]

If you look at Shaun's numbers after he returned from injury (including playoffs). Project that to a 16 game season and you get 1575 rushing and 12 TDs. That projects to 14 points a game (standard scoring) which would have made him the 8th RB last year. Now certainly thats not amazing, but I would say it is good. Alexander was likely not 100% at any point last season. Now he should be at 100% and may benefit from the reduced workload in 06. It would be fair to say that those projections may be on the low side. So in the end, I think Alexander is really being taken right where he belongs. He projects to top 10, but based on his amazing history, should be going before the less proven but similarly projected players like Maroney, Addai, Rudi and Henry.

You forgot to finish pro-rating his numbers. Most notably, you forgot to mention that projecting his numbers to a 16-game season would have given him 403 carries. How likely, on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being not the least bit likely and 10 being a near certainty, do you think it is that a 30-year old RB with a reputation (even from his own head coach) of being soft, coming off of a serious injury, sets a career high for number of carries (by more than 30, no less) and also posts the FIFTH MOST SINGLE-SEASON CARRIES IN NFL HISTORY for a team that is likely going to be in the thick of the playoff hunt and going to want to save him for the postseason? This is Mike Holmgren we're talking about, here, not Herm Edwards. Alexander has topped 350 carries twice in his entire career. I think 325 carries is more in line with his historical averages, and if you project last year's numbers out over a 325 carry season, you're looking at 1155 yards rushing and 9 rushing TDs- hardly the stuff top-5 seasons are made of.

 

[salmonstud]

Alexander hasn't been injury plagued his career. He looked good after he came back last year. If he is there at 5, I'll take him.

 

[sheckiec]

Please, everyone...Shhhhhh. I've got the 10th pick in 2 weeks and will be ecstatic if SA is still there. Here's hoping.

 

[joffer]

Alexander hasn't been injury plagued his career. He looked good after he came back last year. If he is there at 5, I'll take him.

3.7 YPC after the injury, down almost a yard and a half from the previous year. he may return to elite status, but there's some serious red flags for me.

 

[mad sweeney]

Alexander hasn't been injury plagued his career. He looked good after he came back last year. If he is there at 5, I'll take him.

3.7 YPC after the injury, down almost a yard and a half from the previous year. he may return to elite status, but there's some serious red flags for me.

So after several weeks off recovering and still hurt when he returned, a little out of game shape behind a patchwork O line on an injury depleted offense his stats were a bit down from his previous 5 years of super elite production (only Holmes had scored more TDs in that time and SA was the first and only RB to score more than 15 TDs 5 years in a row). Capped off with 100+ yards and 2 TDs against the Bears in Chicago and an offseason of rest and rebuilding of the line, as well as all the injured probowlers returning to health ought to erase all the red flags. I really don't get how the most durable and consistent elite back of the last 6 years gets 1 injury that is now fully healed and falls out of the top 10 in people's mind. I guess it's a good thing, becuase the more people that subscribe to this over reactionary nonsense, the better possibility I can grab a top 5 back with the 4th or higher pick. FBG has him ranked behind Westbrook (talk about injury redflags) and FWP (who's already having knee problems).

 

[joffer]

Alexander hasn't been injury plagued his career. He looked good after he came back last year. If he is there at 5, I'll take him.

3.7 YPC after the injury, down almost a yard and a half from the previous year. he may return to elite status, but there's some serious red flags for me.

So after several weeks off recovering and still hurt when he returned, a little out of game shape behind a patchwork O line on an injury depleted offense his stats were a bit down from his previous 5 years of super elite production (only Holmes had scored more TDs in that time and SA was the first and only RB to score more than 15 TDs 5 years in a row). Capped off with 100+ yards and 2 TDs against the Bears in Chicago and an offseason of rest and rebuilding of the line, as well as all the injured probowlers returning to health ought to erase all the red flags. I really don't get how the most durable and consistent elite back of the last 6 years gets 1 injury that is now fully healed and falls out of the top 10 in people's mind. I guess it's a good thing, becuase the more people that subscribe to this over reactionary nonsense, the better possibility I can grab a top 5 back with the 4th or higher pick. FBG has him ranked behind Westbrook (talk about injury redflags) and FWP (who's already having knee problems).

Life of a StudRBs that are studs (top 10) for 5 or more years are rare. ones that have a 5 year run, fall out, and then get back to top 10 status are even more rare (Emmitt, Barry, Walter).

Again, I'm not saying he won't be top 10. I've got him 8th myself. But there are red flags.

 

[Brewzers]

I took a look at RBs who carried the ball 300+ times at age 30 or older. It has happened 20 times since 1980. The average was 332/1375/10. Those numbers look pretty reasonable to me knowing SA is going to carry the load and get redzone carries. My projections are 325/1300/11. I think he is a reach #3, but I wouldn't blame anyone for taking him at #5. I see upside potential on the TDs.

 

[switz]

16-18-20-28 were his TD totals prior to last season. Last season he broke his foot and was hobbled. Is there any reason to believe that Alexander will not get back in the 15 to 20 TD range again?Alexander just turned 30, I don`t think he has taken much abuse due to the fact he will run out of bounds. Morris does not impress other than a backup. Holmgren likes to run the ball inside the 5. A track record of finding the endzone. Alexander should possibly be ranked #3.Thoughts?

I really wasn't impressed with him after he returned last seaosn. Three yards and a pile of dust, for the most part. Just didn't have the explosiveness and power he had previously.I also think he will miss DJax's blocking downfield, as Branch is not a good downfield blocker. Don't know about Hackett.

 

[Eaglez.Fan]

In 2004 he had 353 carries, in 2005 when he had that great year, he had 370 carries. History tells us when a back gets to the 370 mark his stats usually decline. There are exceptions but the chances are not with him right now.