Second Opinion: Inside the Injury Report
Sidney Rice
After flashing signs of the downfield and red zone threat he might become, Sidney Rice exploded onto the fantasy scene last year with Brett Favre under center. After Rice endured a day’s worth of criticism for passing on Larry Fitzgerald’s conditioning and passing camp this summer, Drew Rosenhaus tweeted that Rice had been dealing with a lingering hip injury that he had suffered during the playoffs last season. Since those July tweets, Rice’s condition has been a hotly debated topic. At times, he appears to be making progress and is expected to be ready for the regular season, only to have another setback of some kind putting his availability back up in the air.
What’s the injury?
There has been no definitive diagnosis provided for Rice’s condition. We’ve been told that the injury was suffered during a playoff game last season and continues to linger, that it’s not a “groin” injury and that Rice has seen three separate specialists since January. There have been reports that two of the three specialists recommended surgery and Rice himself said that he thought surgery may have been the best course of action at one point. It’s also been suggested that Rice would have missed 4-6 weeks had he undergone surgery. Rice describes his condition as general soreness that’s tolerable when he’s moving in a straight line but made worse when he’s cutting, bending or coming out of breaks.
Even without a definitive medical diagnosis, there’s room to speculate with the above details. Given the description of Rice’s pain and the rumored 4-6 week timetable for recovery had he undergone surgery, we can likely rule out any major structural damage to the joint. Again, though I’m freely speculating here, I think it’s Rosenhaus’ tweet that it’s not a “groin” injury that might be most telling. I think that implies that Rice’s pain is near the groin, but doesn’t involve the groin muscles/tendons themselves. There are two hip conditions (and possibly others) that might fit Rice’s story – a labral tear or significant hip flexor strain. Both are associated with groin pain, both may need surgery if they become chronic conditions and both could certainly linger despite rest and rehabilitation.
What’s the medical prognosis?
Without a definite diagnosis, we’re really through the looking glass on a prognosis. If the reports that two of the three specialists Rice visited recommended surgery are more accurate than speculation that contract games and the absence of Favre in camp have Rice dragging his feet, it’s a huge red flag that this condition will not improve this year, whatever it may be. If rest and rehabilitation for six months hasn’t allowed Rice to comfortably move in anything other than a straight line, holding him out of practice during the week between games won’t either. It’s reasonable to worry that Rice’s lateral movement, explosion off the line and leaping ability may all be affected by this family of injuries. It’s also reasonable to worry that Rice may opt for surgery at any point during the season, since surgery has apparently already been recommended and strongly considered.
What’s the fantasy prognosis?
Though there’s not a lot of information to go on, Rice remains on PUP and has said that he’s having difficulty making football movements. That’s a major concern for a receiver who makes a living on his explosion off the line and in the air. If Rice is unable to separate at the line of scrimmage or win the ball at its highest point on deep balls and in the red zone, his fantasy upside is severely limited. Even if this injury proves more hype than substance, there’s clearly enough going on with the hip that Rice will have to play through pain, something he didn’t do well when a knee injury slowed him two seasons ago. There are also valid concerns that his missed time during camp will hurt his football conditioning and timing with Favre and result in a slow start during the first couple of weeks. Finally, though Rice may prove that he can play through the pain of the hip injury, he may be a setup for a compensatory injury if he alters his playing style to compensate.
We may learn that this injury was much ado about nothing and watch Rice build on his breakout 2009 season. But there are just too many red flags here – late start in camp, possibility that the injury keeps Rice from his usual style of play, risk of compensatory injury, multiple surgery recommendations (include Rice’s own concern) and the possibility of multiple missed games if surgery becomes an option during the season – to trust Rice as a WR1 or even a WR2 in the third and fourth rounds. Unless I see him moving like the Rice of 2009 before my upcoming drafts, I won’t consider drafting him until at least the 6th round and likely won’t move on him until he provides so much upside as a WR3 that he’s worth the risk of multiple missed games.