Simple question: Addai or LJ (1 Viewer)

[jurrassic]

A whole lot of discussion recently about valuting Addai into the top 3 or 5. Simply put who do you like more Addai or LJ, and why?

I have to admit I pretty torn on this question.

LJ-The guy is a beast. Even with the retirement of Roaf last year, the horrible tackle play, no wr's, and Green going down, he carried the team on his back to the playoffs carrying the ball a record amount of times and totaling close to 2200 yards and 19 td's, and finished as the #2 back in fantasy football. The line is improved and Huard and Croyle will battle it out at the qb spot. He is holding out which is a concern, but he will be the undisputed workhorse for his team and will get all the goalline carries, which is what you want in fantasy football, isn't it?

Addai-This guy is in a great situation. He finished #11 last year while sharing carries with Rhodes. Had 1400 combined yards with 8 td's (however 5 of those came in 1 game). The retirement of Glenn will hurt the Colts offense and this is a pass first team as Manning loves to call his own number at the goalline, but the scoring chances should be there for Addai and the wr's should open up the run lanes. The Colts however, will have a hug target on their backs this year, have a defense that is not that good, and play the 3rd toughest schedule vs. the run. Addai also has never carried the full load before and it is not known what he will do.

So do you take the proven workhorse stud, who is a more talented back on a team with offensive quesiton marks or the potential up and coming back who is in a better offensive situation?

 

[-Crippler-]

LJ. He will be signed and ready to play very soon, but I'm not sure where. Both sides are probably just posturing.

 

[Fodasme69]

LJ. He will be signed and ready to play very soon, but I'm not sure where. Both sides are probably just posturing.

Got an inside source in the matter? Trade possibly coming?

 

[jurrassic]

That's it?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

That's it?

you got 36 votes despite the numerous threads on lj, top four picks, top ten rb's already in progress that discuss this. i think you did pretty well.

 

[Ilov80s]

Addai. LJ's holdout scares me. I think Addai can come pretty close to LJ's potential numbers this year. The major risk for the minimal gain is not worth it IMO

 

[jurrassic]

Pretty much dead even. Interesting. I will say I am impressed by the voting.

 

[Routilla]

I'll be watching this thread as LJ and Addai are my choices for franchise player. Maybe I'll keep whoever is leading in this poll, lol!

 

[Double_J]

I'll be watching this thread as LJ and Addai are my choices for franchise player. Maybe I'll keep whoever is leading in this poll, lol!

Had the same situation and kept Addai. Draft Dominator had LJ with only 23 more points in my league scoring and didn't feel the risk was worth it.

 

[avoiding injuries]

How about the KC OL going down yesterday with a knee injury. I was on the fence, but I think I just fell into the Addai camp.

 

[switz]

How about the KC OL going down yesterday with a knee injury. I was on the fence, but I think I just fell into the Addai camp.

My argument against LJ has nothing to do with LJ and everything to do with KC. And every week it seems news from KC is worse.Considering how bad their defense has been, they'll be playing alot of catch up, especially now that they have no QBs either. It doesn't look like they'll be able to run as much.Add in the OL woes, and it looks like when they do run, it won't be as effective as last year.Then if any worries about LJ specifically - the holdout, and Holmes being back.All signs point down.

 

[bcr8f]

Addai. LJ's holdout scares me. I think Addai can come pretty close to LJ's potential numbers this year. The major risk for the minimal gain is not worth it IMO

Addai has never been an every down back. That should be a concern.

 

[Double_J]

Notice the newer guys are LJ and the lower number guys are Addai? Just something I noticed on the plethora of threads on this topic.

 

[switz]

Addai. LJ's holdout scares me. I think Addai can come pretty close to LJ's potential numbers this year. The major risk for the minimal gain is not worth it IMO

Addai has never been an every down back. That should be a concern.

He was in some games last year, and his number of touches was not far off from a full time starter even though he split time last year. It doesn't eliminate the concerns, but it does alleviate them somewhat I would think.

 

[switz]

Notice the newer guys are LJ and the lower number guys are Addai? Just something I noticed on the plethora of threads on this topic.

Interesting trend I had not noted.... do you draw any conclusions based on this trend?

 

[Double_J]

Notice the newer guys are LJ and the lower number guys are Addai? Just something I noticed on the plethora of threads on this topic.

Interesting trend I had not noted.... do you draw any conclusions based on this trend?

Yes, yes I do.

 

[jurrassic]

I have been going back and forth on this, and judging from the poll so is everyone else as it is pretty much 50/50. Looking at the numbers Addai received 226 carries last year and turned them into 1081 yards with a 4.6 ypc. He also caught 40 passes for 325. That is a surprising 1406 total yards and 8 td's splitting carries. That is pretty good.

Rhodes had 187 carries for 641 and 36 recs for 251. 892 combined yards with 5 td's.

Assuming Indy keeps the same number of carries for its rb's from last year (413) and Addai now receives 70% of the carries (290) and averages only 3.8 ypc that gives him 1108 yards rushing. If he catches 50 balls for an 8.0 average he will have 400 receiving yards. 1508 total yards and 10-12 td's in Indy this year.

On the other side if LJ's carries drop from 416 to 325 and his ypc drops from 4.3 to 3.5 he will have 1137 yards rushing and if his receiving totals remain constant 410 yards receiving. 1547 total yards. It his td's totals fall 50% he will still have 10.

Pretty even actually. The question is who is the safer pick? Do you see LJ's production falling that much? Do you anticipate Addai averaging 4.5 ypc?

 

[Routilla]

I have been going back and forth on this, and judging from the poll so is everyone else as it is pretty much 50/50. Looking at the numbers Addai received 226 carries last year and turned them into 1081 yards with a 4.6 ypc. He also caught 40 passes for 325. That is a surprising 1406 total yards and 8 td's splitting carries. That is pretty good. Rhodes had 187 carries for 641 and 36 recs for 251. 892 combined yards with 5 td's. Assuming Indy keeps the same number of carries for its rb's from last year (413) and Addai now receives 70% of the carries (290) and averages only 3.8 ypc that gives him 1108 yards rushing. If he catches 50 balls for an 8.0 average he will have 400 receiving yards. 1508 total yards and 10-12 td's in Indy this year.On the other side if LJ's carries drop from 416 to 325 and his ypc drops from 4.3 to 3.5 he will have 1137 yards rushing and if his receiving totals remain constant 410 yards receiving. 1547 total yards. It his td's totals fall 50% he will still have 10.Pretty even actually. The question is who is the safer pick? Do you see LJ's production falling that much? Do you anticipate Addai averaging 4.5 ypc?

I just wish LJ would sign so I don't have to deal with this.

 

[JAMMIN]

Agreed. If LJ was signed this would not even be a thread.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I like Addai, and think he's one of the safer first round picks this year. But from a talent standpoint and the context of the Manning led Indy offense, I don't think he is capable of huge LJ or LT type numbers. Granted, Edge put up some huge stats in the Indy offense in 1999 and 2000. 2100+ combined yds and 17+ TDs both years. Can Addai approach those numbers? It's possible, but he doesn't seem as talented as a young Edge. Also Edge only rushed for 13 TD's both years. He did a lot of the other damage in the passing game. Addai is a good receiver, but again does not appear to be as well rounded as Edge.

On the contrary, LJ has already shown he can put up monster numbers in back to back seasons. If LJ signs, then I don't think this is even a topic.

 

[switz]

I have been going back and forth on this, and judging from the poll so is everyone else as it is pretty much 50/50. Looking at the numbers Addai received 226 carries last year and turned them into 1081 yards with a 4.6 ypc. He also caught 40 passes for 325. That is a surprising 1406 total yards and 8 td's splitting carries. That is pretty good.

Rhodes had 187 carries for 641 and 36 recs for 251. 892 combined yards with 5 td's.

Assuming Indy keeps the same number of carries for its rb's from last year (413) and Addai now receives 70% of the carries (290) and averages only 3.8 ypc that gives him 1108 yards rushing. If he catches 50 balls for an 8.0 average he will have 400 receiving yards. 1508 total yards and 10-12 td's in Indy this year.

On the other side if LJ's carries drop from 416 to 325 and his ypc drops from 4.3 to 3.5 he will have 1137 yards rushing and if his receiving totals remain constant 410 yards receiving. 1547 total yards. It his td's totals fall 50% he will still have 10.

Pretty even actually. The question is who is the safer pick? Do you see LJ's production falling that much? Do you anticipate Addai averaging 4.5 ypc?

I can't see any reason to think Addai's YPC will drop that far. In fact, the second half where he received more carries, his YPC went up. And the lowest YPC in a 20+ carry game by him was 4.9So you have to say he'll average at least 4.2 - 4.5.

Given your same projections at a far more realistic YPC, you get 1218-1305 rushing yards.

I also don't see why LJ's YPC would drop that far. Unless you see either of these guys losing their job, there's no reason to think either will averaghe below 4 yards per carry. That's very extreme.

I could see a case for thinking LJ might drop to 4.1 or 4.2, and Addai dropping to 4.5 to 4.7, but not much less than those.

The big problem with LJ was that his numbers were dependent on a high number of carries. That's unlikely to repeat with a holdout, and the chance they'll be behind more often than not.

 

[jurrassic]

Based on this poll, in which 154 people voted, Addai and LJ are pretty even in most poeple's eyes. That being said Addai appears to be a very viable option over LJ in the 3-5 range. He represents potentially as much value with out the calculated risk.