SJax vs. Ridley vs. MJD (1 Viewer)

[JMJ]

These RBs are all available in the 2nd round and are guys many of us are having to decide between on the second half of RB/RB.

SJax - Is in a high-powered offense where he should easily go over 1,000 yards rushing (1,200 would be my guess), he will also get receiving yards that Michael Tuner never benefited from in the past (maybe 300 yards?), and should also benefit from numerous goal-to-go TD runs where all he has to do is plunge it in from the 2 yard line since ATL's offense should live in the redzone this year.

Michael Turner was the #17 RB in fantasy last year (so a mid RB2) while looking like he was running with a refrigerator on his back all year. I think SJax is super safe to finish as a top RB2 this year, borderline RB1.

Ridley - Ridley had 1,263 yards and 12 TDs last season. Playing on (what I feel will still be) a high-powered New England offense, those numbers should be attainable again this year. However, I do fear Shane Vereen playing a slightly larger role in the backfield this season as they have to give him some carries simply to keep the defense on their heels when he is in the game so they don't see him and automatically know its a pass play. I fear more so however that Legarrette Blount can steal some of Ridley's goal-to-go TDs this year, and due to the fact that he is a non-factor in the passing game (only 51 yards receiving last year on a team that threw the ball a ton), his TDs are an invaluable part of his fantasy stock that he can't afford to lose and continue to be a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.

I see Ridley regressing a bit from last years numbers while maintaining his 1,200 yards rushing due to the strength of New England's Oline and offense as whole, but I see his TDs coming down to the 8-9 area which I feel will make him a low-end RB2.

MJD - Jones-Drew is the hardest to confidently peg this season. He appears to be 100% healthy, but is also in a piss-poor offense. But with that being said, we have witnessed with our own two eyes already in the past this man be a top 3 fantasy RB in offenses that were just as piss-poor as this one is. He is a virtual lock to be the workhorse, 3-down back, and should add 350 yards receiving to any rushing total he amasses (1,200 yards rushing?). This puts him right where I expect SJax to be in regards to total yards (somewhere between 1,500 and 1,600 total yards), but can we count on MJD for double-digit TDs in this offensive offense?

I for one believe that MJD is just too talented to not "get his" regardless of team situation. I'm pegging him for 1,600 total yards and around 9 TDs.

In standard scoring leagues (non-PPR), that would mean I have them listed as

• SJax
• MJD
• Ridley

What says you guys? I'd love explanations if you wanted to provide them on why you rank who above who, but even if you could just rank them, this would be equally as appreciated.

 

[Koya]

I would put Ridley above MJD. He is younger, healthier and on a MUCH better offense. MJD might have more upside, but Ridley brings upside as well. And MJD has a lot more downside - injury and days where his team might not get 200 yards total offense. Too much potential for 12 carries, 32 yards, 4 receptions, 22 yards and no TDs for MJD.

S Jax scares me a little because of tread on the tires, but he has to be better than Turner has been for the last couple years. Even in Turner's prime, S Jax at 30 is a better and more skilled runner, not to say receiver. From that perspective, he brings decent upside (I doubt it, but 15 TDs is not out of the question in that offense if they just give him the rock, and 10 certainly seems likely) including the passing game as you mentioned.

I could see Ridley over S Jax for some who are concerned about age, but to me, MJD is last of the group and I personally am looking to stay away.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I would put Ridley above MJD. He is younger, healthier and on a MUCH better offense. MJD might have more upside, but Ridley brings upside as well. And MJD has a lot more downside - injury and days where his team might not get 200 yards total offense. Too much potential for 12 carries, 32 yards, 4 receptions, 22 yards and no TDs for MJD.

That might be, but Ridley is very much of a guy who has to score or else he will give you a lot of bad weeks, simply because he is not a pass catcher. He had nine games under 80 yards last year, and if he does that weeks where he doesn't score, you are gonna have quite a few 6 and 7 point weeks from a guy who is being taken as a high RB2. Now, you can easily argue that NE scores a lot of rushing touchdowns every year, and that Ridley will be the guy to still get the bulk of 'em, but if his late season fumbling problems persist, he could end up being yanked at the goal line, and if he drops off to 6-8 TDs, he will be vastly overvalued.

 

[meyerj31]

I would put Ridley above MJD. He is younger, healthier and on a MUCH better offense. MJD might have more upside, but Ridley brings upside as well. And MJD has a lot more downside - injury and days where his team might not get 200 yards total offense. Too much potential for 12 carries, 32 yards, 4 receptions, 22 yards and no TDs for MJD.

That might be, but Ridley is very much of a guy who has to score or else he will give you a lot of bad weeks, simply because he is not a pass catcher. He had nine games under 80 yards last year, and if he does that weeks where he doesn't score, you are gonna have quite a few 6 and 7 point weeks from a guy who is being taken as a high RB2. Now, you can easily argue that NE scores a lot of rushing touchdowns every year, and that Ridley will be the guy to still get the bulk of 'em, but if his late season fumbling problems persist, he could end up being yanked at the goal line, and if he drops off to 6-8 TDs, he will be vastly overvalued.

You can't predict TDs so that's a pointless argument. The fact of the matter is that Ridley is going to in line for 300 carries again this year (easily) and has one of the best QBs in the game to keep the defense honest. Don't forget he also has a top 5 run blocking offensive line. I'm taking him all day in the 2nd round and ahead of MJD or SJax. It's not even really close, honestly.

I'm coming around on MJD and will consider him in the 3rd. SJax is the one hyped guy that I can't get on board with this year ... I don't think he'll be on any of my teams at his current price.

 

[unckeyherb]

I would put Ridley above MJD. He is younger, healthier and on a MUCH better offense. MJD might have more upside, but Ridley brings upside as well. And MJD has a lot more downside - injury and days where his team might not get 200 yards total offense. Too much potential for 12 carries, 32 yards, 4 receptions, 22 yards and no TDs for MJD.

That might be, but Ridley is very much of a guy who has to score or else he will give you a lot of bad weeks, simply because he is not a pass catcher. He had nine games under 80 yards last year, and if he does that weeks where he doesn't score, you are gonna have quite a few 6 and 7 point weeks from a guy who is being taken as a high RB2. Now, you can easily argue that NE scores a lot of rushing touchdowns every year, and that Ridley will be the guy to still get the bulk of 'em, but if his late season fumbling problems persist, he could end up being yanked at the goal line, and if he drops off to 6-8 TDs, he will be vastly overvalued.

You can't predict TDs so that's a pointless argument. The fact of the matter is that Ridley is going to in line for 300 carries again this year (easily) and has one of the best QBs in the game to keep the defense honest. Don't forget he also has a top 5 run blocking offensive line. I'm taking him all day in the 2nd round and ahead of MJD or SJax. It's not even really close, honestly.

I'm coming around on MJD and will consider him in the 3rd. SJax is the one hyped guy that I can't get on board with this year ... I don't think he'll be on any of my teams at his current price.

Couldn't disagree more on the SJax and TD's comments. Turner got 10 TDs last year and he was horrible. I could easily see Sjax scoring top 5 TDs for RB's this year. I think 12 total is his absolute floor and on this offense he'll have more opportunities than he's had in the last 5 years combined.

Your argument for Ridley about having a great passing offense to keep defense honest applies as much or more to SJax than it does to Ridley-not saying Ryan = Brady, but Julio/Roddy/Gonzo is light years away from Amendola/Edelmen/Sudfeld.

Not to mention Ridley is a ghost in the passing game, handing over a lot of those touches to Vereen and potentially handing over goal to go situations to Blount. SJax will be used as a 3 down back this year, per Smith quotes (I'll try to find the link) and should touch the ball 320+ times.

I can't get behind a RB coming off injury that is on such a horrible team, but I think the gap from Ridley to MJD is a lot smaller than the gap from SJax to Ridley.

FWIW this is the projection I posted in the SJax spotlight:

288 @ 4.1 for 1180 rush/12 TDs 55 rec's @ 8.0 for 440 rec/4 TDs. 313 FFP's or Top 3 RB last year.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

 

[JMJ]

Of course TDs can't predicted accurately year-to-year, but I also think it varies greater position by position.

QBs are relatively safe. I'm comfortable saying that Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are going to throw 30 TDs this year. I'm also comfortable saying that guys like Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, RGIII, Russel Wilson, etc. are going to throw 25.

RBs are not as safe as QBs, but a RB in a high-powered offense, who does not get pulled at the goaline, should be a relatively safe bet for 10 TDs. A great RB in a bad offense, yes, it gets dicier.

WRs are the toughest to pick I feel. Teams employ more and more 3-4-and 5 WR sets these days, more and more TEs are putting up big numbers (even if it is a combo of TEs for the same team), etc. So a QB like Romo can still throw 28 TDs, but a guy like Miles Austin can go from 10-3 while at the same time, a guy like Jason Witten goes from 3-10.

So while I agree with your overall point, expecting a talented, big RB like SJax who has plenty of life left in his legs and won't get pulled at the goaline to not get double-digit TDs in ATL's high-powered offense I feel is erring too much on the side of caution.

 

[unckeyherb]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

right, and I forget the exact stats, but Jackson has put up 8 straight seasons of 1000+ yards of rushing and under 1,400 total yards only once in his career. All on one of the worst teams of the last decade.

 

[matuski]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Corey Dillon scored 9 touchdowns combined in his last two seasons in Cincinnati, but then went to the Patriots and scored 13 touchdowns in all three seasons with them.

The point: scoring chances become much, much greater when you go from a below average team to a very good or great team, especially one with a great offense.

 

[Run It Up]

Its tough for me right now to choose between SJax or MJD, but I'm leaning SJax but I think MJD has the highest upside of the two.

However I think Ridley is for sure the last of these 3 I would take. I think he is a lock for 10 TDs but thats about it, not sure he will sniff the yardage the other two will have.

 

[matuski]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Corey Dillon scored 9 touchdowns combined in his last two seasons in Cincinnati, but then went to the Patriots and scored 13 touchdowns in all three seasons with them.

The point: scoring chances become much, much greater when you go from a below average team to a very good or great team, especially one with a great offense.

SJax has 9 rushing (eta - 1 receiving as well) TDs his last 2 seasons in St. Louis.. you predicting a 3 year run of 13 TD's?

Good for Corey, but I'm not comfortable predicting a tripling up on TDs... it could happen, but that is a reach to be projecting.

 

[SameSongNDance]

In PPR, I'm not high on Ridley. I just don't like the fact that he can't buoy his floor with receptions as someone like SJax, for example, probably won't be as TD dependent. In standard however, I have no problem leaning on Ridley as my RB2 and view the gap between him and SJax to be quite small; small enough to consider it a wash.

Sometimes I feel as if Ridley is being underrated almost solely due to name value (or lack thereof). If you ignore the name and focus on the situation however, he's definitely an appealing RB2 (in standard). He's a strong RB with good vision, quick feet and plays in an ever effective up tempo offense. Also, Vereen getting an "expanded role" doesn't really affect Ridley, as he's likely to pick up Woodhead's snaps. Regardless, NE ran a #### ton of plays last year (eclipsed 1200 offensive snaps). There will be plenty of opportunity.

Ridley - 549 snaps

Woodhead - 417

Vereen - 161

Bolden - 99

 

[steveski]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

They are situational TD's. Turner scored 11 TD's last year. Do you think Turner is better than SJax? Do you for some reason think the Falcons won't be scoring a lot of points this year?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Corey Dillon scored 9 touchdowns combined in his last two seasons in Cincinnati, but then went to the Patriots and scored 13 touchdowns in all three seasons with them.

The point: scoring chances become much, much greater when you go from a below average team to a very good or great team, especially one with a great offense.

SJax has 9 rushing (eta - 1 receiving as well) TDs his last 2 seasons in St. Louis.. you predicting a 3 year run of 13 TD's?

Good for Corey, but I'm not comfortable predicting a tripling up on TDs... it could happen, but that is a reach to be projecting.

Nope. I was merely demonstrating how a historically very good/great RB is more than capable of scoring a lot more once he lands on a team with a lot of help around him. Like has been said before, a fat, out of shape Michael Turner had double digit scores for the Falcons last year, so if he can do it, why can't Jackson, who still looks better than Turner did last year?

Edit: Turner scored 7 TDs from 3 yards or closer last year AND in 2011. In other words, this Falcons offense is gonna give their lead back a ton of chances to score from very close. Jackson is now that lead back.

 

[JMJ]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Larry Fitz (and Bodlin for that matter) with Warner vs. without Warner

Corey Dillon from the Bengals to the Pats

LaDanian Tomlinson from the Chargers to the Jets

DeMarius Thomas and Eric Decker with Peyton Manning vs. without

Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark with Peyton Manning vs. without

Your scoring usually goes up when your opportunity to score goes up. Jackson going from a dreadful Rams team to a great Falcons team will have his opportunity to score, simply by being just as good - not even better, go up exponentially simply due to the offense around him.

Lets see what Greg Jennings does in Minnesota this year after perennially putting up 1,200 yards and 10 TDs with Favre and Rodgers in Green Bay.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

However I think Ridley is for sure the last of these 3 I would take

+1

 

[matuski]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Corey Dillon scored 9 touchdowns combined in his last two seasons in Cincinnati, but then went to the Patriots and scored 13 touchdowns in all three seasons with them.

The point: scoring chances become much, much greater when you go from a below average team to a very good or great team, especially one with a great offense.

SJax has 9 rushing (eta - 1 receiving as well) TDs his last 2 seasons in St. Louis.. you predicting a 3 year run of 13 TD's?

Good for Corey, but I'm not comfortable predicting a tripling up on TDs... it could happen, but that is a reach to be projecting.

Nope. I was merely demonstrating how a historically very good/great RB is more than capable of scoring a lot more once he lands on a team with a lot of help around him. Like has been said before, a fat, out of shape Michael Turner had double digit scores for the Falcons last year, so if he can do it, why can't Jackson, who still looks better than Turner did last year?

Edit: Turner scored 7 TDs from 3 yards or closer last year AND in 2011. In other words, this Falcons offense is gonna give their lead back a ton of chances to score from very close. Jackson is now that lead back.

I don't think I ever disagreed with a word you are saying... as I said the first time, I understand the changes.

Project a 300% increase for SJax, I hope he gets it.... but I'll stay down here around 10 TDs, a mere doubling.

 

[Man of Zen]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Corey Dillon scored 9 touchdowns combined in his last two seasons in Cincinnati, but then went to the Patriots and scored 13 touchdowns in all three seasons with them.

The point: scoring chances become much, much greater when you go from a below average team to a very good or great team, especially one with a great offense.

SJax has 9 rushing (eta - 1 receiving as well) TDs his last 2 seasons in St. Louis.. you predicting a 3 year run of 13 TD's?

Good for Corey, but I'm not comfortable predicting a tripling up on TDs... it could happen, but that is a reach to be projecting.

Nope. I was merely demonstrating how a historically very good/great RB is more than capable of scoring a lot more once he lands on a team with a lot of help around him. Like has been said before, a fat, out of shape Michael Turner had double digit scores for the Falcons last year, so if he can do it, why can't Jackson, who still looks better than Turner did last year?

Edit: Turner scored 7 TDs from 3 yards or closer last year AND in 2011. In other words, this Falcons offense is gonna give their lead back a ton of chances to score from very close. Jackson is now that lead back.

I don't think I ever disagreed with a word you are saying... as I said the first time, I understand the changes.

And I guess we're just saying we don't think you do understand the changes.

You seem to think the changes are that he went from a bad offense to a good offense, while he remains a poor GL back.

He's going from a bad offense to one that led to historic amounts of GL plunges for a well below average talent with short yardage numbers far worse than SJAX, and that talent was good for 10+ TD's a year.

An average short yardage runner, by the numbers, would be safe to project for a floor of about a dozen TD's in ATL. SJAX is a far better short yardage runner than that. If I were to project him for a full season and only 12 TD's, I could only do it by ignoring the stats on both sides of the equation.

 

[matuski]

Let's say Ridley scores 12 times again, but Jackson also scores 12 times (a safe bet). If you figure that Ridley runs around 1,200 again and gives almost nothing receiving again, given that Jackson is likely to catch 40+ balls, all he needs is probably 900 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards to be as good as Ridley.

It has been what 7 years since SJax put up this amount of TD's?

People are just throwing out double digit TDs willy nilly to a guy who has had an entire NFL lifetime pass since the last time he did so. I understand the changes, but I really think predicting him to triple his TD output from the last several seasons is a large assumption.

Corey Dillon scored 9 touchdowns combined in his last two seasons in Cincinnati, but then went to the Patriots and scored 13 touchdowns in all three seasons with them.

The point: scoring chances become much, much greater when you go from a below average team to a very good or great team, especially one with a great offense.

SJax has 9 rushing (eta - 1 receiving as well) TDs his last 2 seasons in St. Louis.. you predicting a 3 year run of 13 TD's?

Good for Corey, but I'm not comfortable predicting a tripling up on TDs... it could happen, but that is a reach to be projecting.

Nope. I was merely demonstrating how a historically very good/great RB is more than capable of scoring a lot more once he lands on a team with a lot of help around him. Like has been said before, a fat, out of shape Michael Turner had double digit scores for the Falcons last year, so if he can do it, why can't Jackson, who still looks better than Turner did last year?

Edit: Turner scored 7 TDs from 3 yards or closer last year AND in 2011. In other words, this Falcons offense is gonna give their lead back a ton of chances to score from very close. Jackson is now that lead back.

I don't think I ever disagreed with a word you are saying... as I said the first time, I understand the changes.

And I guess we're just saying we don't think you do understand the changes.

You seem to think the changes are that he went from a bad offense to a good offense, while he remains a poor GL back.

He's going from a bad offense to one that led to historic amounts of GL plunges for a well below average talent with short yardage numbers far worse than SJAX, and that talent was good for 10+ TD's a year.

An average short yardage runner, by the numbers, would be safe to project for a floor of about a dozen TD's in ATL. SJAX is a far better short yardage runner than that. If I were to project him for a full season and only 12 TD's, I could only do it by ignoring the stats on both sides of the equation.

You just made a lot of assumptions about what I think, mostly wrong.

If you are predicting 12, I can see that... but 12 as a floor is a reach.

The only reason this is important for me is projections, I hope he does get 15 TDs (I'm a fan of his), I just don't see any reason to over commit on the projections. You are using a historic number and assuming it will happen again... I don't think this is smart. You can't predict how many short yardage attempts he is going to have,

Using historically high numbers of anything as a basis for projections is a dangerous way to go about projecting.

 

[Chaka]

I like SJax and I totally see the arguments in his favor but Atlanta may have a bottom 5 offensive line.

SJax definitely has a higher upside but Ridley feels like the safest bet to reach his projected numbers.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Some stats in Ridley's favor..

• NE had the most rushing TDs last year
• Over the past three years, NE leads the league in rushing TDs and rushing attempts inside to 10 yard line
• Ridley finished 7th in rushing yards after contact last year
• Ridley tied Foster and R.Bush in most missed tackles amongst RBs last year

My question is, are we even sure last year was Ridley's ceiling? I mean, were quite sure what most 2nd round RBs are capable of but this will be Ridley's second year as a relevant rusher.

 

[johnadams]

I like SJax and I totally see the arguments in his favor but Atlanta may have a bottom 5 offensive line.

SJax definitely has a higher upside but Ridley feels like the safest bet to reach his projected numbers.

This is where I'm finding myself. I love watching SJax play and I'm a big fan of his. I see SJax as having the higher ceiling, but lower floor with similar midranges, making Ridley the safer option. Though I'm a bit of gambler and would take the risk with SJax. I'm not drafting MJD in round 2, I don't care what his ADP looks like.