Sleeper alert (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Borbely]

Are Odell Thurman and Dan Morgan viable late round sleepers?

Check out my blog here at the Footballguys.com blogs

Agree?

Disagree?

Let's hear it.

By the way, I drafted both players very late in the FBG staff IDP league. I believe the risk is very minimal in the later rounds of a draft. If either doesn't pan out, I can drop them and pick up the same caliber of player that I could have drafted.

I suspect Thurman's value will go up after he is officially reinstated, but Morgans will probably stay low.

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

You haven't learned your lesson on Morgan yet?

Week 1 waiver guys will surely be better than him. Morgan's head is scrambled, for good.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

You haven't learned your lesson on Morgan yet?Week 1 waiver guys will surely be better than him. Morgan's head is scrambled, for good.

You make a good point...but try this angle. Those week 1 waiver wire types are a dime a dozen, and any of them will be lucky to even put up top 60 numbers. This doesn't consider you can get those kind of players every week of the year. Morgan is a huge risk. He may not play, and even if he does, he will probably only play a handful of games. BUT....anytime he plays he puts up solid LB2/LB3 type numbers. Is there any risk taking him in the last round or two, instead of some LB6 type that you can get anytime?I would rather take the chance on getting a handful of games of LB2/LB3 production. Even if he doesn't play, you can cut him and pick up the same caliber of player you would have drafted. I see zero risk taking him in the last round or two.

 

[lawrence phillips]

What is the deal with Thurman anyways? When will we find out if he actually is reinstated?

I like Morgan, but you know he won't play a full season. So you might get a few weeks of good production, but I wouldn't expect much more.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What is the deal with Thurman anyways? When will we find out if he actually is reinstated?

Camp starts Thursday. I'd expect to hear sometime early this week. Little doubt that he'll be re-instated. We got the first indications that he might be reasonably close to playing shape when it was reported that he weighed 238 recently and had been working out. We'll have a better idea on Thursday; the Thurman story is easily the biggest story in camp, ahead of Irons and the 3rd WR battle.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

What is the deal with Thurman anyways? When will we find out if he actually is reinstated?I like Morgan, but you know he won't play a full season. So you might get a few weeks of good production, but I wouldn't expect much more.

I'm not sure about Thurman. I know he is eligible to be reinstated, and everything I have seen indicates he will be. I agree with what you say about Morgan...and here is a good topic for discussion: If you could draft him as your LB6/LB7 in the last round or two in your draft, and get 4-5 weeks of LB2/LB3 numbers (which he has proven he can put up), would you take him? I can tell you I would.

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

Is there any risk taking him in the last round or two, instead of some LB6 type that you can get anytime?

I would rather take the chance on getting a handful of games of LB2/LB3 production. Even if he doesn't play, you can cut him and pick up the same caliber of player you would have drafted.

True, but i want to save all my draft picks. Every year there are guys i couldn't draft because i had no more picks. That makes me sad. I am not gonna waste my time with the upside of Morgan when there are 20 other LB#6 i would rather have.and if they don't pan out, i'll drop 'em week 3 for the hot IDP... just like you'll do with Morgan

 

[lord_helmet]

Morgan makes the most sense for Beason owners

 

[bcr8f]

Is there any risk taking him in the last round or two, instead of some LB6 type that you can get anytime?

I would rather take the chance on getting a handful of games of LB2/LB3 production. Even if he doesn't play, you can cut him and pick up the same caliber of player you would have drafted.

True, but i want to save all my draft picks. Every year there are guys i couldn't draft because i had no more picks. That makes me sad. I am not gonna waste my time with the upside of Morgan when there are 20 other LB#6 i would rather have.and if they don't pan out, i'll drop 'em week 3 for the hot IDP... just like you'll do with Morgan

How many of those late picks actually make your squad? Last year in the regular dynasty IDP draft I didn't keep any. In the rookie draft I kept all but one (Avant). During the season I picked up Sean Jones, Bethea, Richard Marshall, Mark Anderson and James Anderson. If Morgan goes down I'll lose a contract year but should pick up someone worthwhile.

 

[Zoomanji]

Thurman and Morgan are both guys I would consider late assuming I had large enough rosters. Both have considerable unpside IF they can play.

At worst you get a couple weeks from Morgan putting up LB#2 numbers at the cost of a very late pick. Then you waive him when he gets concussed again. No big loss

Thurman is more of a risk until he's definitly reinstated but I imagine he will be and as good as he was/is should be on the field. Once again, at worst you drop him after a week or 2 and grab a guy off the waiver wire that you could have had instead.

I just the see the upside of the both these guys as more tangible than a S. Shanle/ P. Lenon type or playing the Wilhelm/Cooper lottery.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Thurman and Morgan are both guys I would consider late assuming I had large enough rosters. Both have considerable unpside IF they can play.

At worst you get a couple weeks from Morgan putting up LB#2 numbers at the cost of a very late pick. Then you waive him when he gets concussed again. No big loss

Thurman is more of a risk until he's definitly reinstated but I imagine he will be and as good as he was/is should be on the field. Once again, at worst you drop him after a week or 2 and grab a guy off the waiver wire that you could have had instead.

I just the see the upside of the both these guys as more tangible than a S. Shanle/ P. Lenon type or playing the Wilhelm/Cooper lottery.

I think you made my original point better than I did. No risk taking upside players late in drafts.

 

[Tick]

I agree completely. I dropped out of bidding for Thurman when the numbers got too high this offseason, but was definitely interested in him. I picked up Morgan for really cheap and figure I'll drop him when he breaks, but probably start him until then.

The only concern I have about Morgan is that IIRC he gets deactivated for games with about 30 seconds notice fairly often.

 

[bcr8f]

Thurman is more of a risk until he's definitly reinstated but I imagine he will be and as good as he was/is should be on the field. Once again, at worst you drop him after a week or 2 and grab a guy off the waiver wire that you could have had instead.

It's almost the start of TC and Odell isn't reinstated yet. This may or may not mean anything but many reporters thought he would be reinstated by now.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thurman is more of a risk until he's definitly reinstated but I imagine he will be and as good as he was/is should be on the field. Once again, at worst you drop him after a week or 2 and grab a guy off the waiver wire that you could have had instead.

It's almost the start of TC and Odell isn't reinstated yet. This may or may not mean anything but many reporters thought he would be reinstated by now.

There's been some local speculation that the Vick issue has taken up most of the time of those who would finalize Thurman's reinstatement. Everyone close to this situation still strongly believes Thurman will be reinstated. It will be disappointing, though, that if Thurman has toed the line as asked, if he isn't reinstated by the first camp practice on Friday morning.

 

[hoofnstang]

Any updates on Thurman?

 

[doosk]

Any updates on Thurman?

Thurman has been denied reinstatement for 2007 per KFFL.

 

[sholditch]

There goes on half of your sleeper picks Borbely. Dang man, that is one harsh commish. The NFL could be a model for behavior in three years.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

There goes on half of your sleeper picks Borbely. Dang man, that is one harsh commish. The NFL could be a model for behavior in three years.

Oh well...but look this way...you can draft high upside players like that late in drafts. now, oyu can cut him, and pick up the same caliber of player you would have drafted in his place. Therefore, no real risk. I'm curious as to the reason...something may have happened that we aren't aware of.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Link to Thurman denial

The linebacker completed a four-month alcohol rehabilitation stay in April in South Carolina and a subsequent one-month out-patient program.

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis was not available for comment this morning but had left open the door for Thurman’s return to the team.

Lewis had been in contact with Thurman through his rehab. Lewis, linebackers coach Ricky Hunley and assistant strength and conditioning coach Ray Oliver all visited Thurman in South Carolina.

Thurman started 15 games and played in all 16 as a rookie at middle linebacker in 2005, leading the defense with 148 tackles.

The Bengals drafted Ahmad Brooks in the supplemental draft a year ago, and after an up-and-down rookie season, Brooks had an impressive offseason and staked claim to the starting job in the middle.

Thurman, who still has three years remaining on his rookie contract, could have a future as an outside linebacker if he is reinstated after the season.

Thurman had a minor scrape with the law in June in his hometown of Monticello, Ga., and it is unclear at this time whether the incident played into Goodell's decision to deny Thurman's application.

Two Monticello men filed a pre-warrant hearing application following an alleged altercation at a house party overnight June 2 and 3.

But the two men who made the complaint against Thurman withdrew it late the day before a magistrate in Jasper County, Ga., was scheduled to hear it.

No criminal charges were ever filed.

Two men alleged in the complaint that Thurman had committed acts of criminal trespass, aggravated assault and pointing a gun in the early morning hours Sunday at a house party in Monticello.

 

[bcr8f]

There goes on half of your sleeper picks Borbely. Dang man, that is one harsh commish. The NFL could be a model for behavior in three years.

They may have found out something about that GA incident that swayed their decision. It's hard to know bcause they are pretty secretive about these things.Will the Bengals cut him now?FROM A BENGALS BOARD. Roger Goodell's info. (NFL commissioner)email address: Roger Goodell(Roger.Goodell2@nfl.net)Telephone #: 1-212-450-2000 or (212) 450-2027(this one got through!!!) LETS GET BUSY!!! I suggest you all keep it civil, but DEMAND AN EXPLANATION!!!

 

[Chaos Commish]

As for drafting these high risk players for potential upside, I don't like it. (Oh sure, now that Odell is out, I chime in)

Instead of Odell, Borberly could have had Daryl Smith, Brian Simmons, Kieth Ellison, Thomas Howard or the like. It may be true that he can find the same in free agency now that Odell is gone, but it's going to require some luck or an injury, imo. Sometimes the risk is too high.

I love Dan Morgan. Long time readers should know that. Last year was enough though. Enough already. This guy blacks out too easily. He's the most worrisome medical case in the league, imo. He needs to stop.

I learned the hard way last year. I drafted Morgan. I drafted Kearse. I drafted Bob Sanders. I drafted John Abraham. I drafted Mike Peterson. Morgan and Abraham's issues were well established. We had our suspicions about Sanders. Kearse seemed past the ankle issues. They all went down. Other players I drafted went down. Guys I picked up went down. I had a nice offense that carried these guys (on stretchers) into the semi-finals. But I knew I was toast, and if I'd been more conservative, it may have made the difference. So I'm a little snake bitten by the high risk players. I argued for years that injury risk was over-thinking things to your own detriment. Anyone can get hurt. Well, I think I I'll over-think things this year.

Waivers tend to get wiped out in deeper IDP leagues. That's the idea in my deeper redraft, which is several rounds short of the staff idp redraft at 25. Who are you going to replace Odell with? I think that's a good way to look at your premise.

 

[Peak]

Looks like Goodell will be fielding messages from bitter bengal fans.

I don't think he needs to explain himself, personally. It's business. Odell did something detrimental to the conduct policy and image of the league. This falls into the commish's lap and he can judge on it how he sees fit.

I think it was best put on a local sports radio show here in Columbus, "It's Goodell's sandbox. He can decide who can play and who can't. If you don't like it, go home."

 

[helix]

I agree completely. I dropped out of bidding for Thurman when the numbers got too high this offseason, but was definitely interested in him. I picked up Morgan for really cheap and figure I'll drop him when he breaks, but probably start him until then.The only concern I have about Morgan is that IIRC he gets deactivated for games with about 30 seconds notice fairly often.

I have lost more games by starting Morgan than any other player. The guy is famous for playing a quarter and then sitting. Even if he can suit up, I still would NEVER rely on him to play an entire game. Fools gold here.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

As for drafting these high risk players for potential upside, I don't like it. (Oh sure, now that Odell is out, I chime in)

Instead of Odell, Borberly could have had Daryl Smith, Brian Simmons, Kieth Ellison, Thomas Howard or the like. It may be true that he can find the same in free agency now that Odell is gone, but it's going to require some luck or an injury, imo. Sometimes the risk is too high.

I love Dan Morgan. Long time readers should know that. Last year was enough though. Enough already. This guy blacks out too easily. He's the most worrisome medical case in the league, imo. He needs to stop.

I learned the hard way last year. I drafted Morgan. I drafted Kearse. I drafted Bob Sanders. I drafted John Abraham. I drafted Mike Peterson. Morgan and Abraham's issues were well established. We had our suspicions about Sanders. Kearse seemed past the ankle issues. They all went down. Other players I drafted went down. Guys I picked up went down. I had a nice offense that carried these guys (on stretchers) into the semi-finals. But I knew I was toast, and if I'd been more conservative, it may have made the difference. So I'm a little snake bitten by the high risk players. I argued for years that injury risk was over-thinking things to your own detriment. Anyone can get hurt. Well, I think I I'll over-think things this year.

Waivers tend to get wiped out in deeper IDP leagues. That's the idea in my deeper redraft, which is several rounds short of the staff idp redraft at 25. Who are you going to replace Odell with? I think that's a good way to look at your premise.

You make several good points here. You really got burned last year. I really didn't think the pick was as risky when I took him because almost every report I saw seemed to indicate that Thurman would be reinstated. There is always a risk in a case like this, but I felt it was a risk worth taking. I'm not overly concerned with finding a WW LB to replace him. I did not have many risky picks in the draft, so I felt I could take a couple of shots, knowing that if it didn't work, I felt comfortable enough to find a decent replacement. I have very few injury risks on my team, and since LB was my weak area, I felt taking a chance on upside was a good risk, especially since everything I saw indicated that they expected Thurman to be reinstated.

 

[Chaos Commish]

As for drafting these high risk players for potential upside, I don't like it. (Oh sure, now that Odell is out, I chime in)

Who are you going to replace Odell with? I think that's a good way to look at your premise.

You make several good points here. You really got burned last year.

You're right. I'm tainted from the experience. It could be seen from another angle. For a decade I gladly took the high risk reward talent and rarely got burned. Last year it caught up to me, but through free agency I was able to make a playoff run finishing 2nd in the overall standings despite the plague. Hmmmm... I still won't draft Morgan this year. Not in 25 rounds, but then I think you took him in the 28th or so. I know you have time to weigh your options, but I am curious who you find in free agency for your Odell...

Also on the other issue in this thread.

Looks like Goodell will be fielding messages from bitter bengal fans. lol.gif

I don't think he needs to explain himself, personally. It's business.

I have to disagree here. Goodell is doing a nice job with his message and it's been well-received by the fans, but he's overdoing it if he thinks he can can a star MLB without explanation. He will alienate more than just Bengal's fans, which would be negligent to the game.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Looks like Goodell will be fielding messages from bitter bengal fans. I don't think he needs to explain himself, personally. It's business. Odell did something detrimental to the conduct policy and image of the league. This falls into the commish's lap and he can judge on it how he sees fit. I think it was best put on a local sports radio show here in Columbus, "It's Goodell's sandbox. He can decide who can play and who can't. If you don't like it, go home."

Obviously he can do what he wants (within reason), but Thurman was not suspended on the personal conduct policy, but rather on the substance abuse policy. I would think that Odell may have violated some condition for reinstatement of that policy - I have no idea what it prohibits.The danger for the commish, and the league, is perceived fairness. Jarred Allen - coming off of two DUIs, received a two-game suspension. Odell coming off one DUI got two years!! With nothing else to go on, this seems a bit harsh - even in the Vick-era. As I said, I am sure there is something else that we are not aware of, and I think it would be prudent for the league to point out the basic reasons why they denied reinstatement. I don't think they need to go into details, but something more than the application was denied should suffice.I wonder if this is appealable/grievable? Maybe we have not heard the last of it? It seems odd for such a severe penalty given the comparisons to Henry/PacMan/Tank - Odell's infractions seem rather benign.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm not overly concerned with who replaces Odell. I have Kirk Morrison, Andra Davis, Jon Beason and Mike Vrabel, plus Dan Morgan. This is my weakest position starter wise, but the rest of my defense is very good. So many things can happen and LBs seem to come out of nowhere more than other positions (Chris Draft, Danny Clark types), and I think I'll get at least one if not more solid bench LBs. Of course I could have drafted a better player early when I took Odell, but there was nobody that was so good that I had to have them. I usually seem to find LBs during the year more than any other position, so that also played into my strategy, not only the risk picks, but also letting LB go in lieu of strength elsewhere. My top 4 are adequate enough for now.

 

[Lash]

Add me to the list of guys looking for an Odell replacement (in two leagues)

and in one of them i actually spent Free Agent bucks to pry him away in RFA hehe

 

[Zoomanji]

I traded him away for a 4th round pick in a rookie dynasty draft. I was kind of regretting it.

Not now

 

[corpcow]

I just cut Odell in one league because of a high salary... but I am definitely keeping an eye on the situation. If he is able to appeal the decision and eventually be reinstated, he is still a sleeper candidate... and would be had much cheaper now (in either $ or draft round) than was possible before when everyone thought he would probably be reinstated.

Curious to see what comes out of this in the next couple of days, if we get more details on the denial.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Morgan update:

1. How will Dan Morgan hold up?

Morgan has been cleared to play by some of the finest concussion specialists in the country, but everyone is proceeding with caution — except possibly Morgan himself, who will likely approach the team’s first contact drills with his normal reckless disregard for personal safety. If the Panthers have their way Morgan will start at middle linebacker. But with five known career concussions you have to wonder if a sixth and perhaps career-ending concussion isn’t far behind. Fans will be anxious, perhaps even fearful, when Morgan goes head-to-head with a running back for the first time.

Link to entire article.

 

[obxlegends]

I'm not overly concerned with who replaces Odell. I have Kirk Morrison, Andra Davis, Jon Beason and Mike Vrabel, plus Dan Morgan. This is my weakest position starter wise, but the rest of my defense is very good. So many things can happen and LBs seem to come out of nowhere more than other positions (Chris Draft, Danny Clark types), and I think I'll get at least one if not more solid bench LBs. Of course I could have drafted a better player early when I took Odell, but there was nobody that was so good that I had to have them. I usually seem to find LBs during the year more than any other position, so that also played into my strategy, not only the risk picks, but also letting LB go in lieu of strength elsewhere. My top 4 are adequate enough for now.

If you can usually find lbers, why not just bypass Thurman to begin with? I mean, why take a chance on a guy who you can find another guy to replace him so easily? There are rhetorical questions Anthony. I know you well enough to know you had your reasons. However, proclaiming losing Thurman doesn't hurt because it's an easy position to replace is also the same reason why you probably shouldn't have taken the risk in the first place.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm not overly concerned with who replaces Odell. I have Kirk Morrison, Andra Davis, Jon Beason and Mike Vrabel, plus Dan Morgan. This is my weakest position starter wise, but the rest of my defense is very good. So many things can happen and LBs seem to come out of nowhere more than other positions (Chris Draft, Danny Clark types), and I think I'll get at least one if not more solid bench LBs. Of course I could have drafted a better player early when I took Odell, but there was nobody that was so good that I had to have them. I usually seem to find LBs during the year more than any other position, so that also played into my strategy, not only the risk picks, but also letting LB go in lieu of strength elsewhere. My top 4 are adequate enough for now.

If you can usually find lbers, why not just bypass Thurman to begin with? I mean, why take a chance on a guy who you can find another guy to replace him so easily? There are rhetorical questions Anthony. I know you well enough to know you had your reasons. However, proclaiming losing Thurman doesn't hurt because it's an easy position to replace is also the same reason why you probably shouldn't have taken the risk in the first place.

It's simple...at the time I selected him, all indications were that Thurman would be reinstated. With that, my main concern about him was if the Bengals would give him a real chance to play. I knew if they did, he would be a 3 down LB somewhere, likely at WLB, and would have a legit chance to be a top 10-15 LB. As late as I took him, the other potential LBs were LB4 types, so I don't feel I lost much, especially since this was a bench position. I am confident I can find LBs like that on the WW, which factored into my decision. Losing the caliber of player I passed up is not going to hurt me all that much, so this was a great time to take a chance at top 10 upside. Of course, it's easy to decide after knowing he wouldn't play, but if I had to do it all over again under the same circumstances, I would do the same thing.I also took into account that I had a pretty safe draft up to that point and thus felt I could take a chance. I'm not all that concerned that it didn't work out because there are a few good LBs that i can pick up that I feel are close to what I passed up when I drafted Thurman. The only reason I picked him is because of the reports before that seemed to indicate that he would be reinstated...and also because he was the only LB at that point who was even mildly capable of top 10-15 numbers. The other LBs at that point, I didn't see anyone good enough to even be a top 30-35, so it was a very low risk pick for me. I felt a chance at a top 10 caliber talent that late was well worth the risk.

 

[Zoomanji]

Morgan update:

1. How will Dan Morgan hold up?

Morgan has been cleared to play by some of the finest concussion specialists in the country, but everyone is proceeding with caution — except possibly Morgan himself, who will likely approach the team’s first contact drills with his normal reckless disregard for personal safety. If the Panthers have their way Morgan will start at middle linebacker. But with five known career concussions you have to wonder if a sixth and perhaps career-ending concussion isn’t far behind. Fans will be anxious, perhaps even fearful, when Morgan goes head-to-head with a running back for the first time.

Link to entire article.

That's a shame because the career ender already happened. He'll be drooling on himself by the time he is 45.On the plus side, if he makes it throught the season that will be some really nice points as a LB#2 from a pretty low ADP.

 

[bcr8f]

Morgan update:

1. How will Dan Morgan hold up?

Morgan has been cleared to play by some of the finest concussion specialists in the country, but everyone is proceeding with caution — except possibly Morgan himself, who will likely approach the team’s first contact drills with his normal reckless disregard for personal safety. If the Panthers have their way Morgan will start at middle linebacker. But with five known career concussions you have to wonder if a sixth and perhaps career-ending concussion isn’t far behind. Fans will be anxious, perhaps even fearful, when Morgan goes head-to-head with a running back for the first time.

Link to entire article.

That's a shame because the career ender already happened. He'll be drooling on himself by the time he is 45.On the plus side, if he makes it throught the season that will be some really nice points as a LB#2 from a pretty low ADP.

I wish he would just retire. I know it's tough, but if he gets one in TC I hope he does.