ceo3west
Footballguy
This was one of my two freelance articles - one made it the other didn't. I'm certain this is the one that didn't make it. Feedback is welcome.
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Every year we hear predictions being made about breakout wide receivers and guys who will come out of nowhere to become big-time players. There are many different reasons given for these predictions, such as the "third year theory" or the "contract year", etc. However, I've found that these theories are far too unpredictable to use as a basis for drafting a player. Sure, some guys will certainly break out in one of these situations, but it seems that more times than not these guys fail to live up to the hype. If this is news to you, sorry to break it to you. However, I'm here to tell you that there IS a way to consistently find the breakout wide receiver.
Before I get to the theory, I must preface it by noting my definition of sleeper. All of the players I am about to mention have had an average pre-season ranking of WR35 or greater and have gone on to finish in the top 15 WR's in terms of fantasy points in my league (with the exception of two which I will mention as they come up). As with any theory, it needs to be backed up with some kind of evidence. The only evidence I can offer is my own track record, but I feel that it speaks for itself. Let me start with the guys I've drafted that meet my definition of sleeper (including yards/TD's):
1995 Quinn Early (NO) 1,087 / 8
1996 Antonio Freeman (GB) 933 / 9
1997 Rod Smith (Den) 1,180 / 12 Terrell Owens (SF) 936 / 8
1998 Terrance Mathis (Atl) 1,136 / 11
1999 None
2000 None (out of fantasy football this year)
2001 Qadry Ismail (Bal) 1,059 / 7
2002 Peerless Price (Buf) 1,252 / 9
2003 Darryl Jackson (Sea) 1,137 / 9 Peter Warrick (Cin) 819 / 9
2004 None
2005 Joey Galloway (TB) 1,287 / 10 Donte Stallworth (NO) 945 / 7
Note that Warrick & Stallworth both finished in the top 25, however I mentioned them here because they both were ranked outside of the top 50. Also, note that Warrick's TD totals include two return TD's. Now, these players have several things in common, but not all of them share these traits:
* Some were very highly touted coming out of college, having a TON of talent, but had not lived up to expectiations to that point (Warrick, Stallworth, Price)
* Some were aging veterans who had previously had big years, but took a few years off (Mathis, Galloway, Ismail)
* Some were not so hyped coming out of college, but showed flashes in the NFL and were primed for breakouts (Smith, Early, Owens, Jackson)
* And one came out of nowhere (Freeman)
However, each one of these guys had this in common - none of them were considered the number one receivng target on their team going into the season. Here is the list again with the number one receiving target in parentheses:
1995 Quinn Early (Michael Haynes)
1996 Antonio Freeman (Robert Brooks)
1997 Rod Smith (Sharpe/McCaffrey) Terrell Owens (Jerry Rice)
1998 Terrance Mathis (Tony Martin)
2001 Qadry Ismail (Sharpe/Taylor)
2002 Peerless Price (Eric Moulds)
2003 Darryl Jackson (Koren Robinson) Peter Warrick (Chad Johnson)
2005 Joey Galloway (Michael Clayton) Donte Stallworth (Joe Horn)
The other thing they had in common is that most were on offenses that were considerably better than what was expected going into the season, or they were already on potent offenses. So, the concept is based on picking out players that are extremely talented, in great offensive situations, lurking in the shadows of the number two or three receiving spot and are being overlooked or have been written off all together. Some #2's will be eliminated because they are already in the top 35 (Boldin, Wayne, Houshmandzadeh, Walker, Glenn, Stallworth). Also, I am not considering players on mediocre offenses, or players that are just mediocre themselves. Now, this is not an exact science - there is also "feel", as they say. You have to have a knack for picking WR's and know who has some talent. Guys that feel that David Givens or Robert Ferguson have superb talent and are primed for breakouts are probably not going to be able to pick sleepers even knowing this information that I am presenting.
Now to the best part - let's apply this knowledge to this year's player pool and pick out some sleepers (note that these rankings are based on the 7/10 VBD Application):
WR36 Jerry Porter - There's no questioning Porter's talent - he's got it. Not highly touted coming out of college, he has exceeded expectiations in the NFL. In my mind, Porter is a true #1 receiver in the NFL, the type of talent that can handle the double coverage a #1 receiver gets. Although he produced as a true #1 in 2004, Porter has been plagued with injuries and mediocre offensive situations throughout his career. I beleive this may be the year Porter puts it all togtether - there are two reasons for this. One, the Raiders are going to employ a vertical passing game this year - something Al Davis covets, and Porter should flourish in this system. Also, I beleive Aaron Brooks is an upgrade from Kerry Collins. Even though Brooks has been a poor decision-maker at times, in fantasy terms he was a perennial top-10 QB prior to last year. He can get the ball downfield and he throws TD's. Now, there is a good possiblity that Randy Moss gets the lion's share, but I'm not sold on the Top-5 hype for Moss this year. Note that Moss has only finished in the Top 5 once since 2000. It's not for lack of talent - this guy could finish top 5 every year with the talent he has. The problem is that he plays when he wants - as he has stated. When the Raiders are 2-6 and there is frustration setting in, you think Moss will be giving 100%? I like Moss, and he may end up with Top 5 numbers, but I don't think so. My money is on Porter as the better value - the guy with the chip on his shoulder that has everything to play for. Best case, I can envision this scenario playing out like Moulds-Price in 2002, where Moulds ended up with slighlty better numbers, but both guys ended up Top 10. Worst case (barring injury), Porter has another average year of 900 / 5. Lots of upside here.
WR41 Samie Parker - Parker has been a trendy pick so far in drafts, but for good reason. He is on an offensive juggernaut, his QB is an annual lock for 4,000 yards and 20-25 TD's, and the guys around him have already peaked. Im not buying into the Gonzalez comeback hype - he may have a good year but no way does he repeat the numbers he used to put up every year. I beleive Kennison's best years are behind him as well. In addition, he has shown flashes of brilliance and he is entering his third year (there, I said it). All this adds up to a potential breakout year. It may not happen, but worst case he outperforms his WR41 spot. Bank on it.
WR61 Brandon Stokely - Stokely is being overlooked this year, and reasonably so. He is a #3 WR and he had a lousy year last year. That will cause you to get overlooked. However, there's reason for optimism this year. First, look for Manning to get back to the 35-40 TD range this year. I say this for one reason - you don't lose a Top 5 NFL running back and improve in the running game. In addition, James is great in the red zone. As elusive as he is, he can pound down low with the best. Rhodes and Addai may be servicable, and one may even break out, but I beleive that their red zone ground production will be down. Also, although it doesn't look like it now, one of these years Harrison is going to hit a wall or get banged up. It happens to EVERY player. At 34, this may be that year. Im not saying it will be, but if it happens Stokely will be the steal of the year. Even if it doesn't, I look for Stokely to be closer to his 2004 numbers than his 2005 numbers. No #3 receiver has ever been in a better position than Stokely.
WR81 Mike Williams - I love this guy. I can't say it enough. Not only is he an enormous talent, but Detriot will be one of the most improved offenses this year. Guys I talk to laugh at me because they bring up Jon Kitna - no way can he get it done. It always amazes me how many fantasy football players have short memories. I remember in 2003 when Kitna had a breakout year with Cinci - leading to Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick both having career years to that point. He can get it done. But even more than that, you can't discount Mike Martz. His running games may be non-existent, but mark my words he will get the most out of the passing game and those talented receivers. Roy Williams will probably get the lion's share (I like him a lot too), but the #2 spot is cloudy right now. I know guys will be taking Corey Bradford, Charles Rogers, and perhaps even Scotty Vines before Williams. Then, in the 17th round when guys are packing it in, I will be paying a bag of rocks for one of the most talented WR's in the NFL. Now, there has been talk of Williams being cut, but thats nothing more than pre-preseason talk - you don't give up on a top 10 draft pick that soon. This may not be the year, but one of these years I will be proven right about this guy. I'll take a chance in round 17 that it's this year.
WR89 Ashley Lelie - No one is being disrespected more in fanatasy drafts than Lelie. And for good reason - he's not in camp, his #2 WR job has been taken away, and has been written off. However, when the smoke clears this situation appears very intriguing. First, I dare you to find another player with a bigger chip on his shoulder this year. Second, the guy has talent and has shown flashes of brilliance. Third, I'm not sold that Javon Walker will be coming back at full strength. Walker's biggest asset was his breakaway speed - without it I think he will be nothing more than an average receiver this year. Also, as much as I love Rod Smith (had him last year too), he too will hit a wall or get banged up at some point - he's 36!! If you tell me that by week 8, Smith will be performing like the Smith of past years and Walker will be a solid #2 or #1a, I will eat crow, but I don't see it. I see Lelie coming in at some point and (possibly) living up to past hype. Worst case, I spend an 18th round pick on him and I drop him for a hot waiver-wire pickup. Note that all of this obviously assumes Lelie actually plays for Denver this year. If he goes somewhere else, he may still be considered a sleeper depending on where he lands.
WR100 Rod Gardner - Another guy I love this year. I know, he's been an annual disappointment since his breakout year in Washington. His next two years in Washington brought inconsistent QB play, and then injuries set in the next two. Gardner is finally healthy, is in a GREAT situation, he has the talent and has shown flashes of brilliance. Let me start by saying this - Brett Favre is a lock for 25-30 TD's this year (making him an oustanding value as well). It hasn't really been talked about much, but the only reason Favre came back is because he is 25 TD's from Marinos' record of 420 career TD's. Someone has to catch these TD's - Donald Driver? I don't think so. He may be good for 8 or 9, but in Driver's 7-year career he's only caught more than 5 twice (he's caught 9 twice). Honestly, Im not a big Driver fan - he always seems to end up Top 15, but I like guys that get in the end zone. They win championships for you. Also, there's Robert Ferguson. They begged this guy to take the #2 job last year when Walker went down, but he was never up to it. Bottom line - he is not that talented. If Gardner shows up this year and brings his A-game, I beleive that not only can he take the #2 job, but I will go out on a limb and say that he could outproduce Driver. It's not unimaginable. Just last year, Joey Galloway came back from the dead to retake his rightful place as a true #1 receiver. I'll take that chance with one of my last picks in the draft.
Now, although I like these guys and certainly have hyped them up, some will bust without a doubt. And I'm not saying I'll get all of these guys - with some luck I hope to have four or five of them rostered (in addition to probably two solid receivers in the first five rounds). But if I hit it big with one or two like I did with the guys above, I'll be dancin' in December.
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Every year we hear predictions being made about breakout wide receivers and guys who will come out of nowhere to become big-time players. There are many different reasons given for these predictions, such as the "third year theory" or the "contract year", etc. However, I've found that these theories are far too unpredictable to use as a basis for drafting a player. Sure, some guys will certainly break out in one of these situations, but it seems that more times than not these guys fail to live up to the hype. If this is news to you, sorry to break it to you. However, I'm here to tell you that there IS a way to consistently find the breakout wide receiver.
Before I get to the theory, I must preface it by noting my definition of sleeper. All of the players I am about to mention have had an average pre-season ranking of WR35 or greater and have gone on to finish in the top 15 WR's in terms of fantasy points in my league (with the exception of two which I will mention as they come up). As with any theory, it needs to be backed up with some kind of evidence. The only evidence I can offer is my own track record, but I feel that it speaks for itself. Let me start with the guys I've drafted that meet my definition of sleeper (including yards/TD's):
1995 Quinn Early (NO) 1,087 / 8
1996 Antonio Freeman (GB) 933 / 9
1997 Rod Smith (Den) 1,180 / 12 Terrell Owens (SF) 936 / 8
1998 Terrance Mathis (Atl) 1,136 / 11
1999 None
2000 None (out of fantasy football this year)
2001 Qadry Ismail (Bal) 1,059 / 7
2002 Peerless Price (Buf) 1,252 / 9
2003 Darryl Jackson (Sea) 1,137 / 9 Peter Warrick (Cin) 819 / 9
2004 None
2005 Joey Galloway (TB) 1,287 / 10 Donte Stallworth (NO) 945 / 7
Note that Warrick & Stallworth both finished in the top 25, however I mentioned them here because they both were ranked outside of the top 50. Also, note that Warrick's TD totals include two return TD's. Now, these players have several things in common, but not all of them share these traits:
* Some were very highly touted coming out of college, having a TON of talent, but had not lived up to expectiations to that point (Warrick, Stallworth, Price)
* Some were aging veterans who had previously had big years, but took a few years off (Mathis, Galloway, Ismail)
* Some were not so hyped coming out of college, but showed flashes in the NFL and were primed for breakouts (Smith, Early, Owens, Jackson)
* And one came out of nowhere (Freeman)
However, each one of these guys had this in common - none of them were considered the number one receivng target on their team going into the season. Here is the list again with the number one receiving target in parentheses:
1995 Quinn Early (Michael Haynes)
1996 Antonio Freeman (Robert Brooks)
1997 Rod Smith (Sharpe/McCaffrey) Terrell Owens (Jerry Rice)
1998 Terrance Mathis (Tony Martin)
2001 Qadry Ismail (Sharpe/Taylor)
2002 Peerless Price (Eric Moulds)
2003 Darryl Jackson (Koren Robinson) Peter Warrick (Chad Johnson)
2005 Joey Galloway (Michael Clayton) Donte Stallworth (Joe Horn)
The other thing they had in common is that most were on offenses that were considerably better than what was expected going into the season, or they were already on potent offenses. So, the concept is based on picking out players that are extremely talented, in great offensive situations, lurking in the shadows of the number two or three receiving spot and are being overlooked or have been written off all together. Some #2's will be eliminated because they are already in the top 35 (Boldin, Wayne, Houshmandzadeh, Walker, Glenn, Stallworth). Also, I am not considering players on mediocre offenses, or players that are just mediocre themselves. Now, this is not an exact science - there is also "feel", as they say. You have to have a knack for picking WR's and know who has some talent. Guys that feel that David Givens or Robert Ferguson have superb talent and are primed for breakouts are probably not going to be able to pick sleepers even knowing this information that I am presenting.
Now to the best part - let's apply this knowledge to this year's player pool and pick out some sleepers (note that these rankings are based on the 7/10 VBD Application):
WR36 Jerry Porter - There's no questioning Porter's talent - he's got it. Not highly touted coming out of college, he has exceeded expectiations in the NFL. In my mind, Porter is a true #1 receiver in the NFL, the type of talent that can handle the double coverage a #1 receiver gets. Although he produced as a true #1 in 2004, Porter has been plagued with injuries and mediocre offensive situations throughout his career. I beleive this may be the year Porter puts it all togtether - there are two reasons for this. One, the Raiders are going to employ a vertical passing game this year - something Al Davis covets, and Porter should flourish in this system. Also, I beleive Aaron Brooks is an upgrade from Kerry Collins. Even though Brooks has been a poor decision-maker at times, in fantasy terms he was a perennial top-10 QB prior to last year. He can get the ball downfield and he throws TD's. Now, there is a good possiblity that Randy Moss gets the lion's share, but I'm not sold on the Top-5 hype for Moss this year. Note that Moss has only finished in the Top 5 once since 2000. It's not for lack of talent - this guy could finish top 5 every year with the talent he has. The problem is that he plays when he wants - as he has stated. When the Raiders are 2-6 and there is frustration setting in, you think Moss will be giving 100%? I like Moss, and he may end up with Top 5 numbers, but I don't think so. My money is on Porter as the better value - the guy with the chip on his shoulder that has everything to play for. Best case, I can envision this scenario playing out like Moulds-Price in 2002, where Moulds ended up with slighlty better numbers, but both guys ended up Top 10. Worst case (barring injury), Porter has another average year of 900 / 5. Lots of upside here.
WR41 Samie Parker - Parker has been a trendy pick so far in drafts, but for good reason. He is on an offensive juggernaut, his QB is an annual lock for 4,000 yards and 20-25 TD's, and the guys around him have already peaked. Im not buying into the Gonzalez comeback hype - he may have a good year but no way does he repeat the numbers he used to put up every year. I beleive Kennison's best years are behind him as well. In addition, he has shown flashes of brilliance and he is entering his third year (there, I said it). All this adds up to a potential breakout year. It may not happen, but worst case he outperforms his WR41 spot. Bank on it.
WR61 Brandon Stokely - Stokely is being overlooked this year, and reasonably so. He is a #3 WR and he had a lousy year last year. That will cause you to get overlooked. However, there's reason for optimism this year. First, look for Manning to get back to the 35-40 TD range this year. I say this for one reason - you don't lose a Top 5 NFL running back and improve in the running game. In addition, James is great in the red zone. As elusive as he is, he can pound down low with the best. Rhodes and Addai may be servicable, and one may even break out, but I beleive that their red zone ground production will be down. Also, although it doesn't look like it now, one of these years Harrison is going to hit a wall or get banged up. It happens to EVERY player. At 34, this may be that year. Im not saying it will be, but if it happens Stokely will be the steal of the year. Even if it doesn't, I look for Stokely to be closer to his 2004 numbers than his 2005 numbers. No #3 receiver has ever been in a better position than Stokely.
WR81 Mike Williams - I love this guy. I can't say it enough. Not only is he an enormous talent, but Detriot will be one of the most improved offenses this year. Guys I talk to laugh at me because they bring up Jon Kitna - no way can he get it done. It always amazes me how many fantasy football players have short memories. I remember in 2003 when Kitna had a breakout year with Cinci - leading to Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick both having career years to that point. He can get it done. But even more than that, you can't discount Mike Martz. His running games may be non-existent, but mark my words he will get the most out of the passing game and those talented receivers. Roy Williams will probably get the lion's share (I like him a lot too), but the #2 spot is cloudy right now. I know guys will be taking Corey Bradford, Charles Rogers, and perhaps even Scotty Vines before Williams. Then, in the 17th round when guys are packing it in, I will be paying a bag of rocks for one of the most talented WR's in the NFL. Now, there has been talk of Williams being cut, but thats nothing more than pre-preseason talk - you don't give up on a top 10 draft pick that soon. This may not be the year, but one of these years I will be proven right about this guy. I'll take a chance in round 17 that it's this year.
WR89 Ashley Lelie - No one is being disrespected more in fanatasy drafts than Lelie. And for good reason - he's not in camp, his #2 WR job has been taken away, and has been written off. However, when the smoke clears this situation appears very intriguing. First, I dare you to find another player with a bigger chip on his shoulder this year. Second, the guy has talent and has shown flashes of brilliance. Third, I'm not sold that Javon Walker will be coming back at full strength. Walker's biggest asset was his breakaway speed - without it I think he will be nothing more than an average receiver this year. Also, as much as I love Rod Smith (had him last year too), he too will hit a wall or get banged up at some point - he's 36!! If you tell me that by week 8, Smith will be performing like the Smith of past years and Walker will be a solid #2 or #1a, I will eat crow, but I don't see it. I see Lelie coming in at some point and (possibly) living up to past hype. Worst case, I spend an 18th round pick on him and I drop him for a hot waiver-wire pickup. Note that all of this obviously assumes Lelie actually plays for Denver this year. If he goes somewhere else, he may still be considered a sleeper depending on where he lands.
WR100 Rod Gardner - Another guy I love this year. I know, he's been an annual disappointment since his breakout year in Washington. His next two years in Washington brought inconsistent QB play, and then injuries set in the next two. Gardner is finally healthy, is in a GREAT situation, he has the talent and has shown flashes of brilliance. Let me start by saying this - Brett Favre is a lock for 25-30 TD's this year (making him an oustanding value as well). It hasn't really been talked about much, but the only reason Favre came back is because he is 25 TD's from Marinos' record of 420 career TD's. Someone has to catch these TD's - Donald Driver? I don't think so. He may be good for 8 or 9, but in Driver's 7-year career he's only caught more than 5 twice (he's caught 9 twice). Honestly, Im not a big Driver fan - he always seems to end up Top 15, but I like guys that get in the end zone. They win championships for you. Also, there's Robert Ferguson. They begged this guy to take the #2 job last year when Walker went down, but he was never up to it. Bottom line - he is not that talented. If Gardner shows up this year and brings his A-game, I beleive that not only can he take the #2 job, but I will go out on a limb and say that he could outproduce Driver. It's not unimaginable. Just last year, Joey Galloway came back from the dead to retake his rightful place as a true #1 receiver. I'll take that chance with one of my last picks in the draft.
Now, although I like these guys and certainly have hyped them up, some will bust without a doubt. And I'm not saying I'll get all of these guys - with some luck I hope to have four or five of them rostered (in addition to probably two solid receivers in the first five rounds). But if I hit it big with one or two like I did with the guys above, I'll be dancin' in December.
Not wanting to sound detrimental - I'm probably missing the point (or turning it around) - but if a guy is ranked WR35 or greater and he's in a good offensive team isn't he automatically the second or third target?...
Not sure where you play ff, but every league I've ever seen counts both rushing and passing yards.
so I went with the last free projections:
